The document discusses why emerging markets infrastructure is an attractive investment opportunity. Key points include:
- Emerging markets are expected to see tremendous infrastructure investment needs over the coming decades to support population growth and an expanding middle class.
- Investing in infrastructure assets provides defensive characteristics like stable earnings and inflation hedging. Emerging market infrastructure in particular balances this defensive profile with higher growth potential.
- A portfolio focused on listed infrastructure assets in both developed and emerging markets has outperformed broader equity indexes over the long-term, offering attractive returns at lower volatility.
1. Why emerging markets
are too important to ignore
Presented by
Sarah Shaw
Global Portfolio Manager and CIO
4D Infrastructure
23 October 2019
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This webinar and information has been prepared and issued by Netwealth Investments Limited (Netwealth),ABN 85 090 569 109,
AFSL 230975. It contains factual information and general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into
account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual.The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for
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Sarah Shaw
Global Portfolio Manager and CIO
4D Infrastructure
Meet today’s speaker
8. Disclaimer
8
This information is provided by Bennelong Funds Management Ltd (ABN 39 111 214 085, AFSL 296806) (BFML) in relation to the 4D
Global Infrastructure Fund.
The information provided is general information only. It does not constitute financial, tax or legal advice or an offer or solicitation to
subscribe for units in any fund of which BFML is the Trustee or Responsible Entity (Bennelong Fund). This information has been prepared
without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information or deciding whether to acquire
or hold a product, you should consider the appropriateness of the information based on your own objectives, financial situation or needs
or consult a professional adviser. You should also consider the relevant Information Memorandum (IM) and or Product Disclosure
Statement (PDS) which is available on the BFML website, bennelongfunds.com, or by phoning 1800 895 388 (AU) or 0800 442 304
(NZ). BFML may receive management and or performance fees from the Bennelong Funds, details of which are also set out in the current
IM and or PDS. BFML and the Bennelong Funds, their affiliates and associates accept no liability for any inaccurate, incomplete or
omitted information of any kind or any losses caused by using this information. All investments carry risks. There can be no assurance
that any Bennelong Fund will achieve its targeted rate of return and no guarantee against loss resulting from an investment in any
Bennelong Fund. Past fund performance is not indicative of future performance. All figures are in Australian dollars unless otherwise
specified.
4D Infrastructure Pty Ltd (ABN 26 604 979 259), is a Corporate Authorised Representatives of Bennelong Funds Management Ltd
(BFML), ABN 39 111 214 085, Australian Financial Services Licence No. 296806.
Information is current as at October 2019.
9. The Infrastructure Growth Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio Positioning
In Summary
Table of Contents
9
10. The combination of defensive attributes,
huge investment needs and the diverse
nature of available infrastructure assets,
see the asset class an attractive
allocation for all points of the market cycle.
The combination of defensive attributes,
huge investment needs and the diverse
nature of available infrastructure assets,
see the asset class an attractive
allocation for all points of the market cycle.
The combination of defensive attributes,
huge investment needs and the diverse
nature of available infrastructure assets,
makes the infrastructure asset class an
attractive investment opportunity for decades
to come
11. The Infrastructure Growth Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio Positioning
In Summary
Table of Contents
11
12. What is infrastructure?
12
We are looking for assets that possess the following features:
monopolistic market position or one with high barriers to entry
regulated or contracted earnings stream
inflation hedge within the business
low maintenance capital spend
largely fixed operating cost base
long dated, resilient and visible cash flows
attractive yield or potential yield
For these reasons, infrastructure is known as a ‘defensive’ asset class
13. Defensive with growth
13
Huge global need for infrastructure investment
By 2040 it is estimated an additional ~US$94 trillion in
infrastructure investment will be needed globally:
created by decades of under investment in developed
economies
tremendous population growth
emergence of the middle class (particularly in developing
economies)
Source: Global Infrastructure Outlook, July 2017. Prepared by the Global Infrastructure Hub (a G20 initiative established by in 2014)
14. 14
Infrastructure Spend: the need for additional investment
Source: Clockwise from top left corner - Colorado Springs Business Journal (warning sign), Cincinnati.com (bridge collapse), flintwaterstudy.org (aged water pipes), Daily Express
EPA (Genoa Bridge collapse 2018), Time Magazine, John Minchillo (East Harlem gas explosion), deeptreckker (European water leakage)
15. The Global Population is growing
15
1990
5.3
billion
2017
2030
2050
2100
7.6
billion
8.6
billion
9.8
billion
11.2
billion
In 1900 the global
population was 1.65b
people, by 2000 it was
over 6 billion
Over the next 100 years
an estimated additional
~5 billion people will
inhabit the Earth
Projected World Population to 2100
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017
16. Shift in the Economic Order
16 Source: PwC: The World in 2050. How will the global economic order change.
February 2017
17. The importance of the rising middle class
17
Source: OECD Development Working Paper 285
18. The EM Infrastructure opportunity is significant
18
45% 21%
GDP (PPP)
Market
Capitalisation
Emerging
55%85% 75%
Population Land Mass
Energy
Consumption
Source: Mercer, Franklin Templeton, 4D
19. The importance of the middle class – need for airports
19
Higher disposable income/capita in China is increasing both domestic and international
travel by Chinese residents
Source: Why we are bullish on China, Morgan Stanley Research, blue paper: February
2017
20. The importance of the middle class – need for roads
20
Both China and India’s low auto penetration is likely to increase with the expanding middle
class, supporting the need for additional road investment
Source: Why we are bullish on China, Morgan Stanley Research, blue paper: February
2017
Chart is from a 2015 study
21. Examples of EM Infrastructure
21
Source – 4D trips - Clockwise from top left corner – Phnom Phen Airport (Cambodia), Jebel Ali Port (Dubai), Itaipu control room (Brazil), Itaipu hydro plant (Brazil), Panama Canal,
Waste Water Treatment Plant (Santiago, Chile)
22. Mitigating the risks of EM Investment
22 Source: 4D
Beware of the benchmarks – know what you are getting
Sovereign risk – quantify
Inflation – hedge against
Government ownership – avoid or embrace
Competition – know your assets
Shadow economies – good (understated growth) and bad (inaccurate data)
Corruption – perception improving
Go listed – liquidity, first mover advantage, government shareholdings, FCF funded growth
23. Infrastructure Asset Diversity
23
Community
& Social
Competitive
Assets
Defensive assets
Revenues relatively stable across
economic cycles
User Pays
& Contract
Regulated
Assets
Energy retail &
Merchant generation
Logistics
Telecom services
Infrastructure related
services
Airports
Toll roads
Railways
Ports
Towers & satellites
Contract generation
Gas/electric
transmission &
distribution
Waste & wastewater
Housing
Public Health
Education
Prisons & Stadiums
Increasing Risk
More competitive
24. Rationale for GLI portfolio allocation
24
Safe haven in falling markets:
defensive asset class with stable, predictable and
resilient earnings
shift portfolio over weights to safe markets and
utilities
attractive income yields
low correlation to general equities
Can be geared to growth in rising markets:
captures GDP growth
protected from rising interest rates
inflation hedge
always have risk averse and yield focused investors
25. Table of Contents
25
The Infrastructure Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio Positioning
In Summary
26. 26
GLI has out-performed over the cycle
GLI has offered investors better returns than general equities since 2003 (when listed infrastructure had
enough scale to be its own asset class)
Source: Bloomberg June 19
Total Returns (AUD)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
S&P Global Infrastructure Index
27. GLI has out-performed over the cycle
27
GLI has been defensive over the cycle – down less in down markets but up less in up markets
Overall outperformance – neutral months strength
Source: Bloomberg as at June 2019 – using S&P Global Infrastructure Index
Up months refer to months that the MSCI world index is greater than 2% , whereas down months refer to months where MSCI World Index returns less than -2%
* Average out performance overall/Average out performance in months that out-performed
Monthly performance relative to market since Dec 2003 (AUD)
-3.8%
0.2%
4.0%
-2.7%
0.6%
3.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Trading Range
(-2% < x < 2%)
Outperformed in 50
out of 79 months
Average Out/P: +44bps
Down Months (<2%)
Outperformed in 23 out of 35 months…
Up Months (>2%)
Outperformed in 21 out of 60 months
Average Under/P: -95 bps
MSCI World Index S&P Global Infrastructure Index
28. Attractive returns at lower volatility
28
GLI has offered attractive returns at lower volatility than the broader market over the long term and…
AUD Volatility v Returns 2003- June 2019
Source: Bloomberg June 19
Dow Jones Brookfield
Global Infra
MSCI World
S&P Global Infra
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
10.2% 10.4% 10.6% 10.8% 11.0% 11.2% 11.4%
AnnualisedReturns(%)
Volatility (Annualised Standard Deviation (%)
29. -20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
3-YearAnnualisedReturn
3-Year Annualised Risk (Volatility)4D Infra CIU MSCI World Index Dow Jones Brookfield Global In
Attractive returns at lower volatility have been consistent
29
GLI has offered attractive returns at lower volatility than the broader market throughout the cycle
Source: Bloomberg June 19
Volatility vs Annualised Returns
30. EM up down months
30
EM Infra has been defensive over the cycle – down less in down markets but up less in up markets
Overall outperformance – neutral months strength
Source: Bloomberg as at June 2019
Up months refer to months that the MSCI EM Index is greater than 2% , whereas down months refer to months where MSCI EM Index returns less than -2%
* Average out performance overall/Average out performance in months that out-performed
Monthly performance relative to market since Dec 2003 (AUD)
-4.9%
0.2%
4.5%
-4.3%
0.5%
3.9%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Trading Range
(-2% < x < 2%)
Outperformed in 37
out of 72 months
Average Out/P:
+30bps
Down Months (<2%)
Outperformed in 19 out of 35 months…
Up Months (>2%)
Outperformed in 26 out of 67 months
Average Under/P: -57 bps
MSCI Emerging Markets Index S&P Emerging Markets Infrastructure Index
31. Better way to play EMs
31
And throughout the cycle EM infrastructure out-performs the broader EM market with lower volatility
Source: Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2011 to 30 June 2019
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
3-YearAnnualisedReturn
3-Year Annualised Risk (Volatility)
4D Emerging Markets Infra Universe MSCI Emerging Markets Index
32. Better way to play EMs
32
EM infrastructure has a higher risk/return profile than DM infrastructure
EM infrastructure has a higher return but lower volatility than the broader EM equity market – a more
attractive way to access EMs and EM growth
Source: Bloomberg – 31 Dec 2003 to 30 June 2019
4D Emerging
Markets Infra
MSCI Emerging
Markets
MSCI World
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%
AnnualisedReturns(%)
Volatility (Annualised Standard Deviation (%)
33. Earnings resilience has been a key driver of attractive returns
33
Source: Bloomberg
Global infrastructure EBITDA growth is derived using the constituents of the 4D Infrastructure Universe – free float market cap weighted
Resilience of EBITDA earnings growth
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e
EBITDAgrowth(YoY)
Year
4D Investment
Universe
34. Yield has also supported GLI’s attractive returns
34
Real earnings growth, FCF returns on long dated assets and higher payout ratios have offered attractive
yield support
Source: Bloomberg December 18
Global infrastructure EBITDA growth is derived using the constituents of the 4D Infrastructure Universe – free float market cap weighted
S&P Global Infrastructure Index yield - AUD
5.4%
4.6%
5.0%
3.4%
3.0%
4.6%
3.8%
4.2%
4.8%
5.5%
4.4%
3.6%
4.3% 4.2% 4.1%
2.7%
4.3%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
S&P Global Infra p.a MSCI World Average S&P Global Infra Average
35. The GLI market is growing rapidly
35
$0.5
$1.8
$3.0
$6.0
$-
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
1996 2006 2015 Future
Despite enduring the GFC and other financial shocks, listed
infrastructure has grown rapidly over the last 20 years – from
~US$0.5 trillion market cap in 1996 to US$6 trillion+ in the future
By 2040 there is expected to an additional US$94 trillion spent on
infrastructure globally, further supporting growth in the listed
infrastructure market
Source: Bloomberg, 4D
36. Table of Contents
36
The Infrastructure Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio Positioning
In Summary
37. Our 2020 Macro outlook – slower, but ongoing global growth
37
Global growth is continuing but slowing
Global growth slowing but still positive
No real sign of an inflation break-out
Interest rates: we now have entered a central bank easing cycle around the world – both the Fed and
RBA cut for the first time in a long time. A ‘lower for longer’ cycle looks to have begun
Major economies generally slowing but still in positive territory
US economy slowing but still positive, consumer spending a key driver, employment solid
Euro zone economies also slowing, possible further QE support to come
China slowly transitioning to a domestic, consumption driven economy. It is slowing but have
initiated policy easing/fiscal stimulus to boost growth. Ending the trade wars would be a clear
positive
India slowed a little with the introduction of a GST and money supply reforms but the growth
impact of these is expected to be temporary
Japan has returned to modest, but uneven growth, Australian growth continuing but at a lower level
EM’s also caught up in the global slowdown, but lower global interest rates will be a positive
38. 38
What could go wrong?
Global geo-political risk
US recession
US political chaos and unpredictability
Trade wars ongoing
Populist politics dominate around the globe: President Trump’s victory, Italian political
dysfunction, French riots, Mexico’s AMLO resounding victory. This could lead to
weak/fragmented populist policy development
Brexit turns into an even bigger debacle leading to a significant and prolonged UK slowdown
Conflict on the Korean Peninsula, riots in HK and confrontations in the South China Sea
Renewed Middle East tensions and more state sponsored oil tanker hi-jackings: Oil price
impact?
Stability of Latam governments
Central Banks don’t move quick enough to ease monetary policy
EM economies come under pressure from a rising oil price and/or a strong US$
39. Table of Contents
39
The Infrastructure Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio positioning
In Summary
40. 40
TRULY GLOBAL
DIVERSITY OF THOUGHT
INDEX UNAWARE
INTEGRATED BOTTOM UP
AND TOP DOWN
INVESTMENT PROCESS
DEPTH AND BREADTH OF
COVERAGE
COMPANY MEETINGS
MANDATORY
4D Investment Approach
41. Active Management increasingly important
Remain overweight User Pays and underweight Utilities
Remain overweight Europe and Emerging Markets, underweight the US but increasing positions
Diversity with continued exposure to quality utilities
Adding some yield to the portfolio
Selective investment themes and insights:
Global need for infrastructure investment
Emerging Middle Class especially in developing economies
Global population growth but changing demographics…the west is getting older but much
of the east younger (eg. India, Indonesia, the Philippines)
China: coal to gas energy conversions
China’s One Belt One Road
4D Portfolio Positioning
Driven by continuing global growth, tempered by political caution
41
42. One Belt One Road Strategy
42
The Original Silk Road
Source: Silk Road Trade and Travel Encyclopedia
43. One Belt One Road Strategy
43
The New Silk Road or BRI
44. Table of Contents
44
The Infrastructure Opportunity
Supported by history
Outlook
Portfolio positioning
In Summary
45. Global Listed Infrastructure - an attractive opportunity
45
Infrastructure assets offer a number of compelling investment characteristics
Strong ongoing need for significant infrastructure investment across the globe
Global listed infrastructure is a product for rising and falling markets
Listed infrastructure is a global and very scalable business
Will offer superior fundamentals for decades to come which should support returns
Why Global Listed Infrastructure?
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This webinar and information has been prepared and issued by Netwealth Investments Limited (Netwealth),ABN 85 090 569 109,
AFSL 230975. It contains factual information and general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into
account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual.The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for
professional financial product advice and you should determine its appropriateness having regard to you or your client’s particular
circumstances.The relevant disclosure document should be obtained from Netwealth and considered before deciding whether to
acquire, dispose of, or to continue to hold, an investment in any Netwealth product.
While all care has been taken in the preparation of this document (using sources believed to be reliable and accurate), no person,
including Netwealth, or any other member of the Netwealth group of companies, accepts responsibility for any loss suffered by any
person arising from reliance on this information.
Disclaimer
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Editor's Notes
There has been a chronic under spend on critical infrastructure in virtually every nation over the past 30 years if not longer. To put this in context
Over 50% of London’s water mains are over 100 years old
Europe is recognised as having an extensive rail network – however 1 in 3 railway bridges in Germany are over 100 years old
In America the average bridge is 42 years old and starting to crumble
In America close to 80% of the water pipes are over 30 years old and some are over 100 years old– we are talking about wooden water pipes still being used by the global “Super Power” to service their communities water needs