Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of State Bank of India with target price of Rs Rs.1779/share which is 1.1 times of FY14E book value and neutral view on the stock of Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited
Investment Funds Advisory Today- Buy Stock of State Bank of India and neutral view on Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited
1. IEA-Equity
Strategy
India Equity Analytics
17th Feb, 2014
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
State Bank of India :
"BUY"
Edition : 207
17th Feb 2014
SBIN’s profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher
tax in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. Bank’s NII grew by 13.3% YoY led by higher loan growth and stable NIM.
Asset quality slightly deteriorated with GNPA stood at 5.9% versus 5.8% in previous quarter and net NPA further worsen to 3.2% against 2.9%
sequentially due to lower loan loss provisions made. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which is 1.1 times of FY14E book value.
.............................................................................................. ( Page : 2-6)
SUNPHARMA :Robust Performance
"NEUTRAL"
17th Feb 2014
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations with total revenues including other operating income
at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company was supported
well from domestic operations. The US formulation business grew by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn
.................................................................................................. ( Page : 7-8)
CIPLA :
"BUY"
14th Feb 2014
Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by healthy growth in export business with
well support from India operations to. The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509 Cr for the
quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. ................................................ ( Page : 9-10)
Somany Ceremics: "Outlook Challenging in near term"
"REDUCE"
14th Feb 2014
At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E. The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1%
& EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E. We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current level.
Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in
demand in the latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E and price
target to Rs 115. ............................................................ ( Page : 11-12 )
Coal India LTD :
"BUY"
14th Feb 2014
Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level may be maintained , else we assume that since the
company is a good dividend paying company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India at a attractive
valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target
price of Rs.307/-. ............................................................... ( Page : 13-15)
CANARA BANK :
"NEUTRAL"
14th Feb 2014
Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth
in profit & loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was deteriorating sequentially along with higher fresh
slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral
view on the stock. ..................................................................... ( Page : 16- 20)
"Book Partial
13th Feb 2014
Profit "
Finolex Cables’ (FCL) Q3FY14 PAT of Rs. 24.5 crore was below ourestimate owing to lower sales and EBITDA margin. Decline in communication
cable segment segments as well as high raw material prices resulted in flat EBITDA growth of 3.2% yoy. Sales rose 5.58% to Rs. 557.55 crore in
the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs. 528.07 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2012. Third Quarter result were
marginally below our expectaton which led us to revise our estimate on stock, we cut our EPS forecast for FY14E-15E by 8.6%/4.1%. Even after
posting marginally below result the stock is quite attractive at current market price of Rs. 81 and left a limited upside of 11%, however we
advised our reader to book a part profit on stock . ......................................... ( Page : 21 - 22)
Finolex Cables Ltd: "Reasonable prospects…..."
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
2. State Bank of India
"BUY"
17th Feb, 2014
Result update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
BUY
1473
1779
1776
21
-
During quarter SBI’s profitability declined by 34% largely due to higher
provisions and contingencies led by deteriorating asset quality and higher tax
in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. However,
bank has seen growth in loan and deposits which translated into growth in
profit loss to some extent. Due to higher operating expenses, operating profit
growth was negative despite of 14% growth in revenue. We value bank at
Rs.1779/share which would be 1.1 times of FY14E’s book value.
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500112
SBIN
2469/1452
110126
9.44 lakh
6048
Moderate NII growth led by lower growth in interest earnings assets than
interest bearing liabilities
Bank reported NII growth of 13.4% YoY to Rs.12641 cr lower than our expectation of
Rs. 12959 cr largely due to lower interest income from advances than higher
deposits and borrowing cost. Total income was grown by 13.7% YoY to Rs.16831 cr
supported by other income growth of 15% YoY to Rs.4190 cr. Other income growth
was led by exchange and commission income gain of Rs.2971 cr and forex income
Rs.643 cr.
Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
-10.2
Rel.to Nifty
-5.9
1yr
-35.8
-37.9
YTD
-35.8
-37.9
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3
Promoters
62.3
62.3
62.3
FII
8.8
8.9
9.8
DII
17.9
17.7
16.7
Others
10.9
11.1
11.2
SBIN Vs Nifty
Operating profit reported negative growth due to higher operating expenses
led by employee benefit provisions
Operating expenses increased by 31.4% YoY to Rs.9212 cr in which employee cost
and other operating cost increased by 35% and 25.7% respectively. Employee cost
was led by higher provision for pension and gratuity to the tune of Rs. 1355 cr as
against Rs.743 cr in 3QFY13 and Rs.1283 cr in 2QFY14. Adjusting the same,
employee cost increased by 8% YoY. Operating profit was declined by 2.2% YoY to
Rs.7618 cr. Cost income ratio increased by 735 bps YoY to 54.7% from 47.4% in
3QFY13.
Moderate NII growth, higher operating expenses and higher provision and tax
rate led profit de growth of 34% YoY
SBI’s profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and
contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher tax rate in order to
create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI.
Financials
NII
Total Income
PPP
Net Profit
EPS
2011
32526
48351
25336
8265
130.2
2012
43291
57643
31574
11707
174.5
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Rs, Cr
2013
2014E
2015E
44331
49365
58302
60366
65288
74225
31081
29105
33401
14105
10241
11765
206.2
149.7
172.0
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
2
3. State Bank of India
Continue to report week trend of asset quality
During quarter bank increased provisions and contingencies by 37% QoQ to Rs. 4150 cr
due to deteriorating asset quality. In absolute term GNPA and net NPA increased by 6%
and 16% sequentially. In absolute term, GNPA and net NPA stood at 5.9% and 3.2%
versus 5.8% and 2.9% in 2QFY14 respectively. During quarter bank’s loan loss provision
increased by 29.6% sequentially and stood at Rs.23429 cr. Standard asset provisions
and depreciation provisions were Rs.196 cr and Rs.621531 cr respectively. Net
provisions were declined by 4% sequentially which resulted 16% rise in net NPA in
absolute term. Consequently provision coverage ratio without technical writ off was
declined by 475 bps QoQ to 45.2% from 50% in previous quarter.
Strong traction in loan and deposits growth
Loan grew by 17.4% YoY led by across the sectors. Loan to large corporate grew by 17%
YoY, mid corporate grew by 19%, SME grew by 14% and retail loan grew by 19%. Strong
traction in auto loan (21.2% YoY) and house loan (19.4% YoY) led retail loan growth.
Deposits grew by 17% YoY largely supported by 20% YoY growth in term deposits
followed by saving deposits and demand deposits which grew by 8% and 13%
respectively. Overall CASA ratio was declined by 153 bps YoY to 41%.
NIM declined on account of higher deposits cost and lower yield
SBI’s net interest margin was flat at 3.19% versus 3.18% in previous year. Domestic NIM
declined by 2 bps to 3.49% while oversea NIM declined by 1 bps sequentially to 1.49%.
Cost of deposits increased to 6.25% from 6.22% sequentially while yield on advances
inch up to 10.4% from 10.3% in previous quarter. Credit deposits ratio marginally
declined from 85.3% to 85.1%.
Valuation & View
During quarter SBI’s profitability declined by 34% largely due to higher provisions and
contingencies led by deteriorating asset quality and higher tax in order to create DTL
special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. However, bank has seen growth in loan and
deposits which translated into growth in profit loss to some extent. Due to higher
operating expenses, operating profit growth was negative despite of 14% growth in
revenue. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which would be 1.1 times of FY14E’s book
value.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
3
4. State Bank of India
Moderate NII growth led by lower growth in
interest earnings assets than interest bearing
liabilities
Operating profit reported negative growth due
to higher operating expenses led by employee
benefit provisions
Moderate NII growth, higher operating
expenses and higher provision and tax rate led
profit de growth of 34% YoY
Source: Esatwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
4
5. State Bank of India
Quarterly Performance
Interest/discount on advances / bills
Income on investments
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India
Others
Total Interest Income
Others Income
Total Income
Interest Expended
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Employee
Other Expenses
Operating Expenses
PPP( Rs Cr)
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit
3QFY14
26310
8228
92
241
34870
4190
39061
22230
12641
4190
16831
5867
3345
9212
7618
4150
3469
1234
2235
2QFY14
25379
8137
106
300
33922
3278
37200
21671
12251
3278
15529
5819
3399
9218
6312
3029
3283
908
2375
3QFY13
22800
7072
110
362
30344
3648
33992
19189
11154
3648
14803
4351
2661
7012
7791
2668
5123
1727
3396
Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
Deposits
Borrowings
Investments
Loan
1349940
189969
426728
1148901
1292456
188937
398536
1103090
Asset Quality
GNPA
NPA
% GNPA
% NPA
PCR(%)(w/o technical write-off)
67799
37167
5.9
3.2
45.2
64206
32151
5.8
2.9
49.9
% YoY
-34.2
% QoQ 3QFY14E Variation(%)
3.7
25937
1.4
1.1
8303
-0.9
-13.0
109
-15.9
-19.7
349
-30.9
2.8
34699
0.5
27.8
3876
8.1
5.0
38575
1.3
2.6
21739
2.3
3.2
12959
-2.5
27.8
3876
8.1
8.4
16835
0.0
0.8
6364
-7.8
-1.6
3737
-10.5
-0.1
10101
-8.8
20.7
6734
13.1
37.0
3112
33.3
5.7
3622
-4.2
36.0
1087
13.6
-5.9
2535
-11.9
1156691
148374
359959
978115
16.7
4.4
28.0
0.5
18.5
7.1
17.5
4.2
53458
25370
5.5
2.6
52.5
26.8
5.6
46.5
15.6
15.4
16.3
-16.1
-33.3
14.9
14.9
14.9
15.8
13.3
14.9
13.7
34.8
25.7
31.4
-2.2
55.5
-32.3
-28.5
1337803
202402
415135
1152774
0.9
-6.1
2.8
-0.3
Source: Esatwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
5
6. State Bank of India
Income Statement
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Interest/discount on advances / bills
Income on investments
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India
Others
Total Interest Income
Others Income
Total Income
Interest on deposits
Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings
Others
Interest Expended
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Employee
Other Expenses
Operating Expenses
PPP( Rs Cr)
Provisions
PBT
Tax
59976
19826
236
1356
81394
15825
97219
43235
2562
3071
48868
32526
15825
48351
15212
7804
23015
25336
17071
8265
0
8265
81078
23949
350
1144
106521
14351
120873
55644
3886
3700
63230
43291
14351
57643
16974
9095
26069
31574
13090
18483
6776
11707
90537
27200
545
1374
119657
16035
135691
67465
4124
3737
75326
44331
16035
60366
18381
10904
29284
31081
11131
19950
5846
14105
102590
32037
415
1253
136294
15923
152217
61066
10146
0
86929
49365
15923
65288
22795
13388
36183
29105
14253
14852
4611
10241
120306
39720
415
1253
161693
15923
177616
70226
11668
0
103391
58302
15923
74225
25719
15105
40824
33401
16594
16808
5042
11765
933933
16.1
461521
49
119569
295601
756719
1043647
11.7
467607
45
127006
312198
867579
1202740
15.2
539063
45
169183
350927
1045617
1383151
15.0
580923
42
215867
32037
1202459
1590623
15.0
668062
42
248248
39720
1382828
7.9
6.9
7.0
4.6
4.7
4.6
9.3
7.9
8.4
5.3
6.0
5.4
8.7
8.0
8.0
5.6
4.6
5.5
8.5
7.4
0.0
6.3
4.7
5.4
8.7
8.0
0.0
6.5
4.7
5.6
12.7
1023
2.7
13.9
1251
1.7
14.3
1446
1.4
9.3
1617
0.9
9.8
1617
0.9
Net Profit
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Investments
Loans
Ratio
Yield on Advances
Yield on Investments
Yield on Funds
Cost of deposits
Cost of Borrowings
Cost of fund
Valuation
ROE(%)
Book Value
P/BV
Source: Esatwind/Company
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
6
7. SUNPHARMA
"NEUTRAL"
17th Feb' 14
Robust Performance
Result Update
NEUTRAL
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
609
650
7%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
524715
SUNPHARMA
650/385
126,119
535293
6048
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
1.1
4.7
1yr
57.1
55.2
YTD
82.9
70
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current 2QFY14 1QFY1
4
63.7
63.7
63.7
22.5
22.8
22.9
5.7
3.2
3.1
8.1
10.4
10.4
One Year Price vs Nifty
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations
with total revenues including other operating income at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by
robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company
was supported well from domestic operations as well. The US formulation business grew
by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn while International formulation sales outside US grew
by 16 % YoY to USD 84 Mn. Overall international revenues accounted for more than 75%
of total revenues for the quarter. The Sales of branded prescription formulations in India
was Rs. 947 Cr up by 20% Yoy from Q3FY13 last year. The API business for the quarter
witness some decline with sales falls to Rs 174 Cr translating decline of 17 % YoY.
The operating EBITDA for the quarter came at Rs 1975 Cr grew by 57 % YoY and OPM
stands at 46 %.There is improvement in OPM by 200 bps during the quarter owing to
stronger operating metrics. The RM cost as percentage of sales was 14 % versus 15 % for
the same corresponding period last fiscal. The employ cost as percentage of sales was 12
% in current quarter verses 14% for 3QFY13.The company managed to control its other
expenses during the 3QFY14 and has dropped by 100 bps at 24 % of the sales.
The net profit for the quarter came at Rs 1531 Cr compared to Rs. 881Cr for Q3 last year,
up 74% YoY. The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.The other income for the 3QFY4 was
Rs 134 Cr and Tax rate was at 12 %.
The company on its R&D said that in the 3QFY14, ANDA for 5 products were filed. After
counting these, and adjusting for filings that were dropped, cumulatively ANDAs for 468
products have been filed with the USFDA (as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for 4
products received approvals in the third quarter, taking the total number of approvals to 337
(as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for 131 products now await USFDA approval, including
14 tentative approvals.
The management of the company after 3QFY14 results has revised its FY14E revenue
guidance to 29 % from 25 % earlier. Guidance is at constant exchange rate. The company
further said that capex for the FY14 would be on higher side of earlier guidance. The tax
rate for the full year would be 15 % and R&D expected to be in the range of 6-8% of the
Sales for the FY'14.
View & Valuation
The stock at its CMP of Rs 609 is trading at 22.1x of one year forward FY14E EPS of 27.60
and company has posted very strong 3QFY14 results however on account stretched
valuations we do not see much upside to stock and therefore we turn neutral with TP
650.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
4312
2000
1531
46.4%
35.5%
2QFY14
4207
1843
1362
43.8%
32.4%
(QoQ)-%
2.5
8.5
12.4
260bps
310bps
3QFY13
2865
1275
881
44.5%
30.8%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
50.5
56.9
73.8
190bps
480bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
7
8. SUNPHARMA
Sales and PAT Trend (Rs)
Total revenues including other operating
income came at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led
by robust growth in US formulations and
Taro business.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
OPM %
There is improvement in OPM by 200 bps
during the owing to stronger operating
metrics.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
NPM %
The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.The
other income for the 3QFY4 was Rs 134 Cr
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8
9. "BUY"
CIPLA
Result Update
BUY
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
381
440
15%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500087
CIPLA
450/354
30,591
617290
6,001
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
-4.5
-1.7
1yr
-3
-4.3
YTD
-2
-14
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current 2QFY14 1QFY1
4
36.8
36.8
36.8
23.8
23.8
23.1
10.6
10.9
10.8
28.8
28.5
29.3
One Year Price vs Nifty
14th Feb' 14
Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10
% YoY led by healthy growth in export business with well support from India operations to.
The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509
Cr for the quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. The growth in
export revenues was primarily due to growth in anti-retroviral, anti-cancer, anti-allergic and
anti-biotic segments.
The operating EBITDA for the quarter under review came Rs 403 Cr and OPM at 17.88
%.The OPM declines by more than 600 bps YoY due to the increase in the R&D and the
ramp up in the Staff cost during the quarter. The employ cost as percentage of sales stands
at 14 % while it was 12 % for the same time last fiscal. The other expenses as percentage
of sales were 27% for the 3QFY14 versus 25 % in 3QFY13.The other expenditure
increased largely due to rise in R&D expenses and rise in the cost owing to filings and
setting up of the front end during the quarter. The R&D expenses 4.5% of Sales during the
quarter.
The net profits for the quarter came at Rs 261 Cr and NPM stands at 11.43 %. The Rs 40
Cr Forex gain is included in the other income during the quarter. The tax rate for the quarter
was nearly at same rate as in corresponding last quarter at 25 %.
The Company filed 10 ANDA's in the last nine months and got 6 approvals for the same
period. It has 35 ANDA's under approval as on 31st December 2013. The few of the
approval products are commercialized. Cipla Medpro formed as acquisition of
Medpro,South Africa last year added 500 Cr to top line and 50 Cr to the operating profits
during the quarter.
The management of the company after the results said that the Global respiratory unit
expects some of launches in the next year. It has set up new global respiratory team during
the quarter. The Combination inhalers planned to launch in FY'15.Company expects to be
more than 5% of Sales on the back of ramp up filings for the FY'15.The Capex is 90 Cr
during the quarter and expects to be Rs 400 Cr FY'14. The Rollover Capex of previous year
is Rs 150 Cr during the year.
View & Valuation
The stock at its CMP of Rs 381 is trading at 19.58 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs
19.40.The stock has reacted negatively after 3QFY14 results however we don’t see any
downside risks to our estimates. We further believe that Cipla-Medpro would be earning
accretive in medium to long term horizons and we view the recent correction a good entry
point for the stock. We maintain our view BUY for the stock with Target Price of Rs
440.
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
2282
403
261
17.7%
11.4%
2QFY14
2347
533
376
22.7%
16.0%
(QoQ)-%
(2.8)
(24.4)
(30.6)
(500bps)
(460bps)
3QFY13
2070
492
338
23.8%
16.3%
(YoY)-%
10.2
-18.1
-22.8
(610bps)
(490bps)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
9
10. CIPLA
Business Trend
The revenues from export business including
formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509
Cr for the quarter while domestic business
grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Revenue Trend %
Net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by
healthy growth in export business with well
support from India operations to.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
OPM & NPM Trend %
The OPM declines by more than 600 bps YoY
due to the increase in the R&D and the ramp
up in the Staff cost during the quarter.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
10
11. Somany Ceremics Ltd.
V-
"Reduce"
13th Feb' 14
"Outlook Challenging in near term…….."
Result update
Reduce
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
131
115
95
-12.2%
21.1%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
531548
SOMANYCERA
61/155
452
3,109
6,001
Stock Performance-%
1M
13.2
16.0
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
59.9
58.1
YTD
103.2
97.6
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
63.3
2.8
1.7
32.2
2QFY14 1QFY14
63.3
63.3
0.8
0.2
1.9
2.0
34.0
34.5
The Q3FY2014 results were weak marked by a double-digit decline in the profit after tax on the
back of subdued increase in fuel cost, dollar v/s rupee volatility and a pressure on the margin.
The management expect improvement in the demand conditions in the near term and guided a
revenue growth of 20% in FY14E-15E, however we expect the revenue growth to be
somewhere arround 12-15% and financial performance to remain weak on account of margin
pressure. Consequently, we are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to
book profits at current level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new
ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the
latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target
multiple to 10x of FY15E and price target to Rs 115.
Result highlights :
For Quarter Ended 2QFY14
• For the quarter ended September 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 6.5% rise in sales to Rs
284.5 crore.
• OPM fell 230 basis points to 6.0% taking OP down 8.3% to Rs 17.0 crore.
• Other income also rise 77.8% to Rs 48 lakh and interest cost decreased 8.9% to Rs 4.6 crore.
• As depreciation increased 9.1% to Rs 5.7 crore, PBT fell 41.1% to Rs 7.1 crore.
• Taxation fell 40.3% to Rs 2.3 crore (tax incidence grew from 32.5% to 32.9) and PAT fell 41.4%
to Rs 4.8 crore.
For Nine Month Ended 9MFY14
• For the nine month ended December 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 18.7% rise in sales to Rs
848.8 crore.
• However, OPM dived from 8.5% to 6.4% taking OP down 10.7% to Rs 54.5 crore.
• Other income jumped 28.1% to Rs 1 crore and interest cost decreased 8.2% to Rs 13.8 crore.
• As depreciation increased 8.7% to Rs 16.5 crore, PBT fell 20.3% to Rs 25.2 crore.
• Taxation fell to 15.5% to Rs 8.6 crore but tax incidence grew from 32.1% to 34.0% which finally
saw PAT falling 22.5% to Rs 16.6 crore.
Management Guidence FY14E
Management is expected to achive a top-line growth of arround 20-25% in FY14E.
1 yr Forward P/B
Valuations :
At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E.
The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1% & EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E.
We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current
level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and
the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the latter part of FY2015, to
boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E
and price target to Rs 115.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
284.5
17.0
4.8
6.0%
1.7%
2QFY14
305.6
19.4
6.0
6.4%
2.0%
(Standalone)
(QoQ)-%
-6.9%
-12.8%
-20.5%
(40) bps
(30) bps
3QFY13
267.2
22.1
8.2
8.3%
3.1%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
6.5%
-23.3%
-41.4%
(230) bps
(140) bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
11
13. Coal India LTD.
Result Update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
261
307
330
18%
-7%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
533278
COALINDIA
372/238
176226
17622
6001
Stock Performance-%
1M
-1.3
2.8
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-21.2
8.8
YTD
-21.4
8.6
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
90.0
5.5
2.4
2.1
2QFY14 1QFY14
90.0
90.0
5.5
5.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.4
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
"Buy"
14th Feb' 14
CIL reported Rs.16928 Cr Sales (-2% YOY) against Rs.17325 Cr in Q3FY13 due to poor off
takes of the coal during the quarter. Q3FY14 PAT slipped to -11% to Rs.3894 Cr against
Rs.4395 Cr in Q3FY13.Q3FY14 EBIDTA/ton remained flat YOY at Rs.350/ton while it is
increased 36% through QOQ. EBIDTA margin corrected in this quarter to 24% from 18% in
Q2FY14.Depriciation slipped 11% to 442Cr against 495 Cr in Q2FY14, moderating the
burden on EBIDTA.
On the expenditure side contractual expenses increased ~20% to Rs.154/ton from
Rs.128/ton in Q2FY14.Powerfuel cost and other expenses per ton remained flat, while
cost of project per ton decreased to Rs149/ton from Rs.206/ton in the previous quarter.
Poor Realization of Coal India showed little uptick like 2% to Rs.1445/ton.
Fluctuation in Domestic and international coal price impacted coal offtake
In this quarter the international coal price were relatively down by 9% against Q2FY14
while the domestic coal price were showed upward movement. So the Major domestic
consumers of coal imported coal at lower price, hence it impacted the off takes and
revenue of CIL slipped -2% YOY and unable to meet the target off takes. Govt decision
related labor strikes impacted the productions of CIL too. Sequential increase in tax rate
further contracted the NPM%. From January we have seen a recovery in international
coal price which is positive sign for CIL.
Rescheduling Date of hearing stands a key concern
Competition Appellate Tribunal stays Rs 1,773 Crore fine on CIL, and will decide on the
matter on next hearing 16th April 2014 (Rescheduled from 11th Feb 2014). The quantum
of penalty Rs 1,773.05 Crore is equal to three per cent of the PSU's average turnover for
the last three years. We believe, A Rs 1800-crore fine could possibly mean less profits for
the company and less dividend income for its owners. But as the main owner, the
government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine, it will not be poorer in any
way.
Realization gain on Revised Coal Price
Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 Crore in this fiscal
on account of revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalized
the basic notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.The
estimated additional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the current
financial year is Rs 2,119 cr. Though the incremental revenue is a positive sign but it fails
to change our previous valuation.
Financials :
Q3FY14
Y-o-Y %
Q-o-Q %
Q3FY13
Q2FY14
Net Revenue
16928
-2.3
9.8
17325
15411
EBITDA
4104
-4.3
46.9
2794
4288
Depriciation
442
5.2
-10.7
495
420
Interest Cost
10
0.0
25.6
8
10
Tax
1930
4.9
36.6
1412
1839
PAT
3894
-11.4
27.6
4395
3052
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
13
14. Coal India LTD.
View & Outlook
We revised our estimates due to sequential poor production and off takes of CIL. We
expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor
off take capabilities of CIL. Management showed his confidence about their coal
production target and coal off take target for FY2014E, in previous quarter, which is
482mt and 492mt respectively. But Due to sequential poor production and off take we
revised the target to 464mt and 475mt respectively. Also, we expect CIL’s margins to
decline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other
expenses. We are expecting flat sales growth for 2014.Coal India Ltd sprang a positive
surprise by reporting higher-than-expected realizations as well as earnings before
interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Average price realizations
increased by 2.3% sequentially to Rs.1,444.87 per tonne which is positive sign for future
growth.
Recommendation
Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level
may be maintained , else we assume that since the company is a good dividend paying
company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India
at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous
estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target price of Rs.307/-.
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Cost Of Projects & Contractual
Power and fuel
contractual expenses
Employee benefit Expence
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Tax
PAT
ROE %
OPERATING MATRIX
Coal Production in MT
Coal Offtake in MT
Revenue Generation From unit Ton
Avg Man Power (in numbers)
Productivity Per Man
FY11
50234
7573
1755
4580
20481
40390
9843
1673
79
5595
10868
33
FY10
431
416
1073
404744
1066
FY12
62415
5123
2013
4901
26705
40857
21558
1969
54
6484
20588
51
FY11
431
425
1183
390243
1105
FY13
68303
6556
2333
5802
27943
50219
18084
1813
45
7623
17356
36
FY12
436
433
1441
377447
1155
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
FY14E
69960
8372
2591
6049
28943
53705
16255
1860
34
7310
17921
40
FY13
452
465
1468
364736
1240
14
15. Coal India LTD.
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Long-term provisions
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
Inventories to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Cash from Operation
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
Trading At :
FY10
6316
20956
27273
343
1620
2545
772
1404
5443
0
12035
2211
610
4402
2169
39078
8066
17921
FY10
0.0
0.0
4.9
1.7
1.0
FY11
6316
26998
33314
1334
33
22461
645
12387
8490
779
12065
2057
845
5586
3419
45806
11180
21646
FY11
5.7
17.3
22.8
4.3
3.7
FY12
6316
34137
40453
1305
0
28271
829
15595
9785
759
12681
1848
1017
6071
5663
58203
13478
24688
FY12
5.5
32.6
29.2
4.3
3.1
FY13
6316
42156
48472
1078
0
31144
837
20447
12385
712
12754
3496
1181
5618
10480
62236
16189
25479
FY13
4.0
27.5
52.7
4.2
2.8
FY10
FY11
FY12
10727
12819
16323
-131
-3822
3565
10596
8997
19888
950
697
-10410
2163
2911
-7382
13708
12606
2095
Down 21% from its 52week High
Up 14% from its 52 week Low
FY13
15948
-6839
9109
-1833
-7852
-575
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
15
16. CANARA BANK
Result update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
NEUTRAL
213
256
20
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532483
CANBK
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
-17.2
Rel.to Nifty
-13.3
459/190
9427
1.93 lakh
6001
1yr
-52.3
-54.1
YTD
-52.3
-54.1
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
3
Promoters
69.0
67.7
67.7
FII
10.3
11.9
12.7
DII
12.9
13.1
13.3
Others
7.7
7.3
6.3
CANARA BANK Vs Nifty
"NEUTRAL"
14h Feb2014
Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan
growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit
& loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was
deteriorating sequentially along with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest
among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth
parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on the stock.
Moderate growth in NII was due to margin compression
During quarter bank’s NII grew by 12% YoY to Rs.2227 cr despite of 32% loan
growth and 26% deposits growth. Moderate growth in NII was due to margin
compression in YoY basis which was lead by lower base rate among peers. On NII
level, bank’s interest earnings asset grew by 18% YoY while interest bearing
liabilities grew by 20% due to higher share of wholesale deposits which somehow
increased cost. Other income was flat from last quarter and was stood at Rs.851 cr
versus Rs.846 cr. Consequently from lower support of other income, revenue grew
by 8.6% YoY to Rs.3078 cr.
Higher opex and moderate NII growth led muted operating profit growth
Operating cost increased by 12.9% YoY was due to higher cost registered in other
operating expenses which were came because of 47 new branches and 245 ATMs
added on yearly basis. Employee cost was flat on YoY basis while other operating
expenses increased by 26.3% YoY. Cost to income ratio 180 bps improved on YoY
basis to 48.3%. With moderate NII growth and higher operating expenses led
operating profit growth of 4.9% YoY.
Deteriorating asset quality with higher slippage
On asset quality front, gross NPA increased by 8% QoQ in absolute term whereas
fresh slippage was high at Rs.2100 cr versus Rs.1520 cr in previous quarter. In
percentage term, GNPA stood at 2.8% versus 2.7% in previous quarter whereas
fresh slippage in annualised basis increased by 76 bps sequentially to 2.9%. During
quarter, bank’s increased provisions by 19% QoQ thereby net NPA increased by 6%
in absolute term. In percentage term net NPA stood at 2.4% versus 2.3% in previous
quarter.PCR slightly improved from 13.6% to 14.9% (without technical write off)
much lower than peers. However bank reported PCR at 57.4% in 3QFY14.
Financials
NII
Total Income
PPP
Net Profit
EPS
2011
7823
10526
6107
4026
90.9
2012
7689
10617
5943
3283
74.1
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Rs, Cr
2013
2014E
2015E
7879
8511
12169
11032
12328
15986
5890
6381
8792
2872
2399
3869
64.8
52.0
83.9
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
16
17. CANARA BANK
Healthy loan growth led by retail sector
Bank’s loan grew by 32% YoY led by retail sector growth of 55% YOY followed by SME
(46% YoY), Infrastructure (24% YoY). Within infrastructure loan growth, power generation
and transmission growth was strong at 63% YoY. Deposits grew by 1% YoY and 4% QoQ
in which current and saving account deposits grew by 19% and 16% YoY respectively. In
deposits profile, term deposits de-grew by 3% YoY which was took flat growth in overall
deposits as share of term deposits reduce to 77% from 80% in last quarter. CASA ratio
was declined by 123 bps QoQ to 23%. Credit deposits ratio for the quarter stood at
70.4% versus 71.8% in previous quarter and 67.4% in last quarter.
Margin compression on account of higher cost of fund
NIM compressed by 15 bps YoY to 2.21 largely due to lower loan yield 70 bps YoY
whereas cost of fund increased by 120 bps YoY. Higher cost of fund was due to higher
cost of bulk deposits. However declining share of bulk deposits and increasing CASA
ratio restricted to escalate funding cost. Yield on loan declined by 70 bps YoY despite of
healthy loan growth was due to lower base rate among peers.
Valuation & View
Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth.
Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit & loos account
due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was deteriorating sequentially
along with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write
off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on
the stock.
Valuation Band
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
17
18. CANARA BANK
Chart Focus
Moderate growth in NII was due to margin
compression
Higher opex and moderate NII growth led
muted operating profit growth
Profitability declined due to moderate NII
growth, higher provisions and higher tax rate
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
18
19. CANARA BANK
Quarterly Performance
Quarterly Result
Interest/discount on advances / bills
Income on investments
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India
Others
Total Interest Income
Others Income
Total Income
Interest on deposits
Interest Expended
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Employee
Other Expenses
Operating Expenses
PPP( Rs Cr)
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit
3QFY14
7360
2575
149
0
10084
851
10935
7311
7857
2227
851
3078
873
614
1488
1591
1052
539
130
409
2QFY14
6964
2597
93
0
9654
773
10427
6923
7463
2191
773
2964
933
607
1539
1425
674
751
125
626
Balance Sheet
Deposits
CASA(%)
Loan
Investments
408924 391613 323963
23.1
24.3
20.0
287700 281104 218242
130359 119481 118835
26.2
4.4
31.8
2.3
9.7
9.1
Asset Quality
GNPA
NPA
% GNPA
% NPA
PCR(%) (w/o technical write-off)
8,074
6870
2.8
2.4
14.9
32.6
8.0
33.8
6.4
7,475
6459
2.7
2.3
13.6
3QFY13
5958
2460
127
0
8544
846
9390
6307
6556
1988
846
2834
831
486
1317
1516
626
891
180
711
6,090
5134
2.8
% YoY % QoQ 3QFY14E % Variation
23.5
5.7
7298
0.9
4.7
-0.9
2701
-4.7
17.1
60.3
216
-30.8
-13.5
0
18.0
4.4
10214
-1.3
0.7
10.1
1006
-15.3
16.5
4.9
11220
-2.5
15.9
5.6
0
19.8
5.3
7608
3.3
12.0
1.6
2606
-14.5
0.7
10.1
1006
-15.3
8.6
3.9
3612
-14.8
5.1
-6.3
1127
-22.5
26.3
1.2
751
-18.3
12.9
-3.4
1878
-20.8
4.9
11.6
1734
-8.2
68.0
56.0
700
50.3
-39.4
-28.2
1034
-47.8
-27.8
4.0
258
-49.7
-42.4
-34.6
775
-47.2
400424
0.0
291913
127099
2.1
-1.4
2.6
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
19
20. CANARA BANK
Income Statement
Interest Income
Interest Expense
NII
Change (%)
Non Interest Income
Total Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Pre Provision Profits
Change (%)
Provisions
PBT
PAT
Change (%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
18752
13071
5681
#DIV/0!
2858
8538
#DIV/0!
3478
5061
#DIV/0!
2039
3021
3021
45.8
23064
15241
7823
37.7
2703
10526
23.3
4419
6107
20.7
2081
4026
4026
33.2
30851
23161
7689
-1.7
2928
10617
0.9
4674
5943
-2.7
1860
4083
3283
-18.5
34078
26199
7879
2.5
3153
11032
3.9
5142
5890
-0.9
2218
3672
2872
-12.5
39193
30682
8511
8.0
3817
12328
11.8
5947
6381
8.3
3347
3034
2399
-16.5
47413
35244
12169
43.0
3817
15986
29.7
7194
8792
37.8
3565
5228
3869
61.3
234651
#DIV/0!
68261
#DIV/0!
8441
69677
169335
#DIV/0!
293973
25
83117
22
14262
83700
212467
25
327054
11
79611
-4
15525
102057
232490
9
355856
9
86061
8
20283
121133
242177
4
409234
15
102878
20
24439
133305
293034
21
470620
15
118310
15
28105
168631
339919
16
8.2
6.6
5.2
9.3
8.0
6.9
4.8
7.0
10.1
6.9
6.7
7.7
10.1
7.5
7.1
4.7
9.6
7.7
7.0
7.0
10.0
7.5
6.9
7.0
358
410
1.1
452
627
1.4
512
474
0.9
562
393
0.7
639
214
0.3
710
214
0.3
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings( Rs Cr)
Investments( Rs Cr)
Loans( Rs Cr)
Change (%)
Ratio
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost of Deposit
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs
Valuation
Book Value
CMP
P/BV
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
20
21. Finolex Cables Ltd.
V-
"Book Partial Profit"
13th Feb' 14
"Reasonable prospects…..."
Book Partial Profit
81
90
73
11%
0%
Result update
CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores)
Average Daily
Volume
Nifty
500144
FINCABLES
41/92
1,238
94,300
6,084
Stock Performance-%
1M
(4.1)
(2.7)
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
46.7
43.7
YTD
78.0
71.0
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
35.8
1.8
9.8
52.5
1 yr Forward P/B
2QFY14 1QFY14
35.8
35.8
1.1
1.0
10.2
10.5
52.9
52.8
Finolex Cables’ (FCL) Q3FY14 PAT of Rs. 24.5 crore was below ourestimate owing to lower sales
and EBITDA margin. Decline in communication cable segment segments as well as high raw
material prices resulted in flat EBITDA growth of 3.2% yoy. Sales rose 5.58% to Rs. 557.55 crore
in the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs. 528.07 crore during the previous quarter
ended December 2012. Third Quarter result were marginally below our expectaton which led
us to revise our estimate on stock, we cut our EPS forecast for FY14E-15E by 8.6%/4.1%. Even
after posting marginally below result the stock is quite attractive at current market price of Rs.
81 and left a limited upside of 11%, however we advised our reader to book a part profit on
stock
The copper rods segment was initially set up as backward integration for the cables segment. The
excess production after captive consumption is sold off to third parties at market price. However,
owing to thin and declining margins from third party transactions, FCL is gradually reducing its
exposure to the segment. The contribution of the segment to the top-line has decreased from
21% in FY2010 to ~5% currently. This trend is expected to continue, thereby improving the
overall EBIT margin of the company.
Outlook :
FCL being one of the leading players in the cable industry seems well placed to capture huge
opportunities considering the strengths & the industry in which the Company is operating.
Derivative losses coupled with bleak performance by communication cable segment were the
major reasons for de-rating of the stock in past which in our view seems to have been overdone.
The company’s LT division is doing very well, they have recently entered into HT and Extra High
Voltage (EHV) cable verticals. The company has market share of around 15-16 percent in both
electrical and telecommunication verticals. Further the company has approved setting up a
captive 5 MW solar power plant at its manufacturing facilities at Urse, Pune at an estimated cost
of Rs 40 crore.
Valuation :
We cut our earnings estimates to factor volume decline in electrical & communication cable
segment, margin decline in copper rod segment and losses in the others segment. Consequently,
we cut our earnings estimates by 8.6% for FY14E (Rs. 11.6/Share) and 4.1% for FY15E (Rs.
12.6/Share). At the CMP of Rs. 81 stock is trading at PE of 7.0/6.4 of FY14E/15E. We revised our
rating on stock from "Buy" to "Hold". However owing to slower pace of economic growth further
we advised our readers to book part profit on stock and hold the balance with a target price of
Rs. 90
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
563.1
44.3
24.5
7.9%
4.3%
2QFY14
593.1
76.4
80.0
9.3%
12.8%
(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(QoQ)-%
-5.1%
-42.0%
-69.4%
(140) bps
(850) bps
3QFY13
534.3
42.9
24.0
8.0%
4.5%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
5.4%
3.2%
2.1%
(10) bps
(20) bps
(Standalone)
21
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