Chertow Lecture #1


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  • Chertow Lecture #1

    1. 1. Approaching Modern China Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies 耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心 Prof. Marian Chertow Presentation to: Mandarin China - Yale Educational Travel October 2008
    2. 2. Outline – Approaching Modern China <ul><li>A word from our sponsors – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yale, Forestry & Environmental Studies, Industrial Environmental Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrial ecology – following the flows – the fit with modern China </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Government structure </li></ul><ul><li>Which is the real China? </li></ul>
    3. 4. Divinity Medicine Management Law Music Drama Architecture Nursing Art Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale College 1701
    4. 5. Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies <ul><li>The family of Gifford Pinchot endowed </li></ul><ul><li>the founding of Yale’s School of Forestry </li></ul><ul><li>in 1900. </li></ul><ul><li>Gifford Pinchot, YC 1889, was the first </li></ul><ul><li>Chief of the US Forestry Service (1905-10) </li></ul><ul><li>under President Teddy Roosevelt </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;every stream is a unit from its source to </li></ul><ul><li>its mouth, and all its uses are interdependent“ </li></ul><ul><li>Name change in 1972 </li></ul>TR and Pinchot
    5. 6. Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies <ul><li>Yale’s environment school is needed as never before. As environmental issues have become more complex and more international, the new generation of environmental leaders will increasingly need professional training in environmental science, management, and policy. </li></ul><ul><li>— Dean James Gustave Speth </li></ul>Gus at UNDP
    6. 7. Brown and Green : the Dark Side <ul><li>Classes I am teaching: </li></ul><ul><li>Business and Environment (NUS) </li></ul><ul><li>Greening Business Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Corporate Environmental Management and Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Ecology </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced Seminar: Industrial Ecology and the Circular Economy in China </li></ul>
    7. 8. Industrial Ecology … looks at human/industrial systems in the context of their natural surroundings
    8. 9. “ Industrial ecology is the study of the flows of materials and energy in industrial and consumer activities, of the effects of these flows on the environment, and of the influences of economic, political, regulatory, and social factors on the flow, use, and transformation of resources.” Defining Industrial Ecology Robert White NAE 1994
    9. 10. China consumes: <ul><li>half of the world’s cement output, </li></ul><ul><li>a third of its steel, </li></ul><ul><li>a quarter of its copper, </li></ul><ul><li>and a fifth of its aluminum </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Asian Development Bank, Asian Environmental Outlook 2005 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    10. 12. China and Business: The Mega-Story <ul><li>The only way for manufacturers to compete with China is to move operations to China themselves. </li></ul><ul><li>“ China makes you sharp or it kills you.” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wall Street Journal </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>March 2004 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    11. 13. <ul><li>Rank Country Industrial production Date of Info. </li></ul><ul><li> growth rate(%) </li></ul><ul><li>1 Sudan 32.00 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>2 Azerbaijan 31.00 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>3 Angola 24.40 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>4 Vietnam 17.10 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>5 Equatorial Guinea 14.10 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt 13.80 2007 est. </li></ul><ul><li>China 12.90 2007 est </li></ul><ul><li>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ </li></ul>166 United Kingdom 0.70 2007 est. 167 Belize 0.50 2007 est. 168 Zimbabwe 0.50 2007 est. 169 United States 0.50 2007 est. 170 Saudi Arabia 0.20 2007 est.
    12. 14. China’s Manufacturing Workforce <ul><li>Worlds largest at 104 million </li></ul><ul><li>2x the number of manufacturing workers in the US, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combined </li></ul><ul><li>Computers and computer parts in Guandong Province: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ If there is a traffic jam between Dongguan and Hong Kong, 70% of the world’s computer market will be affected.” </li></ul></ul>A. Harney, The China Price , The Penguin Press, 2008
    13. 15. Production goes well beyond traditional industries… <ul><li>China is the number one producer of solar photovoltaics , with > 200 manufacturers creating 1700 MW of panels in 2007, nearly half of total world production of 3,800 MW.  </li></ul><ul><li>China has become the world's leading proponent of solar heating technology </li></ul><ul><li>China is among the world leaders in wind energy with as much as 70% of the components made in China. </li></ul>Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), Scientific American , August 4, 2008
    14. 16. <ul><li>TABLE 2. Incidence of Poverty – World Bank-ILO </li></ul><ul><li>People People </li></ul><ul><li>Below Below </li></ul><ul><li>$2/Day $2/Day </li></ul><ul><li> Late-1980s Late-1990s </li></ul><ul><li>China 67.4% 50.1% </li></ul><ul><li>India 83.2% 78.8% </li></ul><ul><li>Africa 76.1% 76.1% </li></ul>ANEEL KARNANI, THE MIRAGE OF MARKETING TO THE BOP CALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW VOL. 49, NO. 4 SUMMER 2007
    15. 17. Source: Altenburg et al (2008),. Breakthrough? China’s and India’s transition from production to innovation. World Development, Volume 36, No. 2, 325-344 From 1995-2004 China’s contribution to global production of scientific publications rose from 2.0% to 6.5%
    16. 18. Averages Tell Us Little About China: Income of urban and rural residents
    17. 20. The Infamy of 2005!
    18. 21. Demography <ul><li>China's population doubled in </li></ul><ul><li>50 years to 1.3 billion today. </li></ul><ul><li>China is home to approximately </li></ul><ul><li>20% of the world's 6.4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>people. </li></ul><ul><li>170 cities over 1 million population </li></ul><ul><li>Total of 56 ethnic groups, of which the largest is the Han Chinese. </li></ul>
    19. 22. Population Trends in China, India, and the United States, 1950 - 2050 So urce: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, , Heskesth, T et al. (2005) The Effect of One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years. The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 353:1171-1176 China
    20. 23. The Distribution of World Population
    21. 24. Longevity is rapidly increasing Some Figures…..
    22. 25. Fertility is rapidly decreasing Some Figures….. Linked to one-child policy
    23. 26. Beginning in 2010 the world’s most populous nation will enter a 30 year period of rapid aging
    24. 27. What does Aging in China mean? The Numbers more than 300 million people 65 and older by 2050 more than 20% of the population 65 and older by 2050
    25. 28. USA - China A half century from now China will have a larger population over 65 by percent than USA And in comparison with the rest of the world?
    26. 29. And in comparison with the rest of the world? A half century from now the number of China’s elderly will be far greater than the combined elderly population of North America, Europe and Japan
    27. 30. Another implication of demography <ul><li>From 1985 – 2000, average household size decreased from </li></ul><ul><li>4.5 to 3.5 people </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller households consume more resources per person </li></ul><ul><li>Per capita house floor area has tripled since the late 1970s </li></ul>Liu and Diamond, Nature Vol 435 June 2005
    28. 31. PRC government structure
    29. 32. China’s legal framework (1) <ul><li>Constitutionally, the National People’s Congress (NPC) is the highest legislative body in China empowered to enact and amend: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>fundamental national statutes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>including statutes related to the establishment and organization of certain government institutions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generally in session only two weeks per year (usually in March) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standing Committee of the NPC authorized to enact and amend all national laws </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General office of NPC puts together a Five-Year Legislative Plan. </li></ul></ul>
    30. 33. China’s legal framework (2) <ul><li>The State Council, below the National People’s Congress, is China’s highest administrative organ and the executive authority of the NPC. </li></ul><ul><li>Functions and powers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approve and promulgate nat’l administrative regulations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Issue decisions and orders in accordance with the Constitution and other laws </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Review legislative proposals for referral to NPC or its Standing Committee </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oversee the work of its underlying ministries and commissions </li></ul></ul>
    31. 34. PRC government structure II
    32. 35. 3 types Source: Ma and Ortolano, 2000 3 at same level
    33. 36. Differences in emphasis from U.S.- I <ul><li>Five constitutions since 1949 </li></ul><ul><li>No provision for “checks and balances” among the branches of government </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Judiciary has functioned more like a department of the executive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not a federal system so central government relies heavily on ad hoc agreements and complex bargaining in dealing with provincial and municipal governments </li></ul><ul><li>Role of hortatory government vs. hard regulation. </li></ul>J. Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 2001.
    34. 37. Differences in emphasis from U.S.- II <ul><li>Policy is not set by government, but primarily by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) </li></ul><ul><li>CCP something like a board of directors, but also maintains a parallel organizational structure to that of the government bureaucracy, with Party members overseeing the work of government officials. </li></ul>J. Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 2001.
    35. 38. Which is the real China I?
    36. 39. Which is the real China II?
    37. 40. Evolving understanding of the fundamental question of development <ul><li>‘‘development is of overriding importance’’ </li></ul><ul><li>‘‘development is the top priority’’ </li></ul><ul><li>‘‘overall, balanced and sustainable development’’ </li></ul><ul><li>gradually giving birth to a scientific philosophy of development specific to China </li></ul>
    38. 41. A new industrialization model…for reconciling China’s twin goals To increase economic growth and social welfare 2000 2010 2020 2050 To decrease resource consumption and pollution Revised from: Prof. Zhu Dajian
    39. 42. Addressing imbalances <ul><li>development of primary, secondary and tertiary industries is not in balance </li></ul><ul><li>too much investment in primary industry, particularly heavy industry, but </li></ul><ul><li>too little investment in the service industry. </li></ul>
    40. 43. Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2008). Revolutionizing China’s environmental protection. Science, Vol 413, 37-38 CO 2 emissions are rising in step with growing GDP
    41. 44. National Geographic March 2004 <ul><li>Compared to the average person in China: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Americans consume nine times as much energy, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>use four times as much water, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>release nearly eight times as much greenhouse gas </li></ul></ul>
    42. 45. Understanding China: 2-sided <ul><li>HEADS </li></ul><ul><li>Large population </li></ul><ul><li>Large consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid industrialization & economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Coal mining, cement, paper & chemicals sectors outdated </li></ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency ½ of developed world </li></ul><ul><li>TAILS </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing pop. growth </li></ul><ul><li>Per capita energy consumption & GDP less than developed countries </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental pollution & effects on human health </li></ul><ul><li>Automobile & fuel sector technologically advanced </li></ul><ul><li>China is a developing country </li></ul>
    43. 46. So which is the real China? (I) Photo credit: Beijing, Dan Eckstein 2006
    44. 47. So which is the real China? (II)