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How likely is it that you would vote on Parliamentary election on
March 16, 2014?
Base: Total target population

March 12

February II

April I

April II

April III

February I

April IV

May

42%
I would surely vote

62.8
65
29%

I would probably vote

I probably wouldn't vote

I would vote for sure

I would probably vote

16.6
19
I probably wouldn't
vote

9%
6.3
6

I wouldn't vote for
sure
16%

I definitely wouldn't vote

DK-Ref

8.7
6

4%
2
3

I would turn out, but
would spoil the ballot
/ leave it blanc
I still don't know if I
would vote

24%
10%
10.6
7.8
7.1
8.4
6%
3%
3
1.9
1.1
1
11%
10%
9.5
8.9
7.7
8.7
2%
6%
5
5.4
4.1
2.7
2%
9%
7.8
8.4
9.4
6

54%
63%
64.1
67.4
71
73.2
If you had to say right now, to which party are you
leaning?
Base: indecisive (10% of target population)

February II

List led by SNS - Aleksandar Vucic (SNS+Nova Srbija+
SPO+SDPS)

24%

List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova DS+LSV+ Zajedno za Srbiju
-Dušan Petrovic, Zeleni)

Lista koju predvodi SNS -…

6%

24%
List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka - Zoran Živkovic)

4%

Lista koju predvodi SPS - Ivica…

5%

Lista Nova DS koju predvodi…

5%

List led by LDP - Cedomir Jovanovic (LDP + SDU- Zarko Korac +
BDZS)

3%

Lista koju predvodi DS (DS-…

5%

List led by SPS - Ivica Dacic (SPS + PUPS+ JS)

2%

Lista koju predvodi LDP -…

4%

Demokratska Stranka Srbije (Ds) - Vojislav Kostunica

2%

Demokratska Stranka Srbije…

2%
Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)-Vojislav Seselj

2%

Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)-…

1%

Savez vojvodjanskih Madjara…

1%

Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic

1%

DVERI - Bosko Obradovic

1%

DVERI - Bosko Obradovic

1%

Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic

1%

Savez vojvodjanskih Madjara (SVM) - Istvan Pastor

1%

March I

Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS -… 1%
Other
Don't know

49%

Indecisive

4%

47%

Refusal

6%
On March 16th election for Belgrade Assembly will be held. Although all lists
and all candidates for the Mayor of Belgrade are not known, which party or
coalition will you vote for?
Base: Belgrade population (23% of target population) – March I
February I

February II

March I
20% 23

List led by SNS (SNS+Nova Srbija+SPO+SDPS)
List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka…

9%

8% 9.8
7.7
6%
Demokratska Stranka Srbije (DSS)
5.1
3.7
4%
List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova…
2.8 6.7
4%
List led by LDP (LDP + SDU-Zarko Korac)
2.6
3.9
2%3.4
Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)
2.2
1%
DVERI
3 4.3
0%
Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic
0%
Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS
1.2
Cirilica za Beograd
0.5
Treca Srbija
0.4
Demokratija-Evropa-Srbija
0.3
Indecisive
7.1
7% 10
Refusal
11.8
I won't vote
4.9 9.1

17.2
19.4

List led by SPS (SPS + PUPS+ JS)

don’t know

8.7

18%

21%

25.2
On March 16th election for Belgrade Assembly will be held. Although
all lists and all candidates for the Mayor of Belgrade are not
known, which party or coalition will you vote for?
Base: decided, Belgrade population (72% of target population, Belgrade) – March I
February I

February II

March I

List led by SNS (SNS+Nova Srbija+SPO+SDPS)

30.1

List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka Zoran Živković)

16%
14%
12.8
10.7
11%

List led by SPS (SPS + PUPS+ JS)
Demokratska Stranka Srbije (DSS)
List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova DS+LSV+
Zajedno za Srbiju -Dušan Petrović)
List led by LDP (LDP + SDU-Zarko Korac)
Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)
DVERI
Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic
Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS
Cirilica za Beograd
Treca Srbija
Demokratija-Evropa-Srbija

6.7
5.2
8%
8.8
3.9
7%
3.4
5.5
3%
4.5
3
3%
3.9
6
1%
0%
1.4
1.6
0.7
0.5
0.4

22.5

27

37%
35

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Istrazivanje: verovatnoca glasanja, profil neodlucnih, #izbori2014 #Srbija

  • 1. How likely is it that you would vote on Parliamentary election on March 16, 2014? Base: Total target population March 12 February II April I April II April III February I April IV May 42% I would surely vote 62.8 65 29% I would probably vote I probably wouldn't vote I would vote for sure I would probably vote 16.6 19 I probably wouldn't vote 9% 6.3 6 I wouldn't vote for sure 16% I definitely wouldn't vote DK-Ref 8.7 6 4% 2 3 I would turn out, but would spoil the ballot / leave it blanc I still don't know if I would vote 24% 10% 10.6 7.8 7.1 8.4 6% 3% 3 1.9 1.1 1 11% 10% 9.5 8.9 7.7 8.7 2% 6% 5 5.4 4.1 2.7 2% 9% 7.8 8.4 9.4 6 54% 63% 64.1 67.4 71 73.2
  • 2. If you had to say right now, to which party are you leaning? Base: indecisive (10% of target population) February II List led by SNS - Aleksandar Vucic (SNS+Nova Srbija+ SPO+SDPS) 24% List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova DS+LSV+ Zajedno za Srbiju -Dušan Petrovic, Zeleni) Lista koju predvodi SNS -… 6% 24% List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka - Zoran Živkovic) 4% Lista koju predvodi SPS - Ivica… 5% Lista Nova DS koju predvodi… 5% List led by LDP - Cedomir Jovanovic (LDP + SDU- Zarko Korac + BDZS) 3% Lista koju predvodi DS (DS-… 5% List led by SPS - Ivica Dacic (SPS + PUPS+ JS) 2% Lista koju predvodi LDP -… 4% Demokratska Stranka Srbije (Ds) - Vojislav Kostunica 2% Demokratska Stranka Srbije… 2% Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)-Vojislav Seselj 2% Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS)-… 1% Savez vojvodjanskih Madjara… 1% Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic 1% DVERI - Bosko Obradovic 1% DVERI - Bosko Obradovic 1% Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic 1% Savez vojvodjanskih Madjara (SVM) - Istvan Pastor 1% March I Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS -… 1% Other Don't know 49% Indecisive 4% 47% Refusal 6%
  • 3. On March 16th election for Belgrade Assembly will be held. Although all lists and all candidates for the Mayor of Belgrade are not known, which party or coalition will you vote for? Base: Belgrade population (23% of target population) – March I February I February II March I 20% 23 List led by SNS (SNS+Nova Srbija+SPO+SDPS) List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka… 9% 8% 9.8 7.7 6% Demokratska Stranka Srbije (DSS) 5.1 3.7 4% List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova… 2.8 6.7 4% List led by LDP (LDP + SDU-Zarko Korac) 2.6 3.9 2%3.4 Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS) 2.2 1% DVERI 3 4.3 0% Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic 0% Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS 1.2 Cirilica za Beograd 0.5 Treca Srbija 0.4 Demokratija-Evropa-Srbija 0.3 Indecisive 7.1 7% 10 Refusal 11.8 I won't vote 4.9 9.1 17.2 19.4 List led by SPS (SPS + PUPS+ JS) don’t know 8.7 18% 21% 25.2
  • 4. On March 16th election for Belgrade Assembly will be held. Although all lists and all candidates for the Mayor of Belgrade are not known, which party or coalition will you vote for? Base: decided, Belgrade population (72% of target population, Belgrade) – March I February I February II March I List led by SNS (SNS+Nova Srbija+SPO+SDPS) 30.1 List led by DS (DS-Dragan Djilas+Nova Stranka Zoran Živković) 16% 14% 12.8 10.7 11% List led by SPS (SPS + PUPS+ JS) Demokratska Stranka Srbije (DSS) List Nova DS led by Boris Tadic (Nova DS+LSV+ Zajedno za Srbiju -Dušan Petrović) List led by LDP (LDP + SDU-Zarko Korac) Srpska radikalna stranka (SRS) DVERI Dosta je bilo - Sasa Radulovic Ujedinjeni regioni Srbije -URS Cirilica za Beograd Treca Srbija Demokratija-Evropa-Srbija 6.7 5.2 8% 8.8 3.9 7% 3.4 5.5 3% 4.5 3 3% 3.9 6 1% 0% 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 22.5 27 37% 35