The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities Andreadis I., Chadjipadelis Th. Department of Political Sciences, Ar...
Outline (part I) <ul><li>Regional elections are considered as second order elections. In addition, candidates  do not run ...
Outline (part II) <ul><li>Individuals who vote for a different candidate: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How many are they? </li></...
Data and methods (part I) <ul><li>Data from Helpmevote (Voting Advice Application) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VAA used for Gree...
Data and methods (part II) <ul><li>Helpmevote Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 20 days more than 28,000 users  </li></ul></ul...
Most important criterion used
Correspondence analysis: party attachment and main criterion Party Support Honesty Manifesto Other
Distribution of voting  behaviour  by main criterion
Distribution of voting behaviour by party attachment
Distribution of voting behaviour by Region (voters attached to PASOK)
Region of Attica  <ul><li>Nearly 2 million people have participated to the general elections of 2009 in Attica region  </l...
2009-2010 comparison (Attica) - Independent (Left) 2.2% Alavanos 0.5% ANTARSYA 2.3% Hagios - Democratic Left 3.8% Psariano...
Voting behaviour  by  p arty attachment (Attica)
VTR estimates for  ND  and  PASOK voters  (Attica) *: Rates calculated among voters who have gone to the regional polls   ...
Electoral base of Dimaras   <ul><li>Won 2 out of 10 of PASOK 2009 voters. A part of them remain attached to PASOK. </li></...
Conclusions <ul><li>Voting a different candidate </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Factors associated with  individual characteris...
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The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities

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Presented at the 61st Political Studies Association Annual Conference "Transforming Politics: New Synergies", 19 - 21 April 2011, London, UK, Panel: “GPSG Panel 3 – Contemporary Challenges: Greece beyond the Crisis”. Paper available at http://www.polres.gr/en/sites/default/files/PSA2011-GPSG.pdf

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The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities

  1. 1. The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities Andreadis I., Chadjipadelis Th. Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University Thessaloniki Greece
  2. 2. Outline (part I) <ul><li>Regional elections are considered as second order elections. In addition, candidates do not run under the name of a political party. </li></ul><ul><li>What is the most important criterion used to choose a candidate for regional governor? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the impact of voters’ party attachment to their voting behaviour in regional elections? Do they vote for a different candidate? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Outline (part II) <ul><li>Individuals who vote for a different candidate: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How many are they? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Their most important criterion? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Their party attachment? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Analysis of voting behaviour in Attica </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voter transition rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dimaras’ electoral base </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Data and methods (part I) <ul><li>Data from Helpmevote (Voting Advice Application) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VAA used for Greek Regional Elections of 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides voting advice by matching voters' policy views with candidates' positions. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voters express their views on issues that reflect the most important dimensions of political competition. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A formula calculates proximity of voters’ positions to the positions of the candidates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The output of the application is a ranked list of candidates according to calculated voter/candidate proximities. </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Data and methods (part II) <ul><li>Helpmevote Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 20 days more than 28,000 users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Helpmevote users had the option to fill-in a &quot;personal data&quot; form and provide information about them </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ecological inference on electoral results of regional elections 2010 and parliamentary elections 2009. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Most important criterion used
  7. 7. Correspondence analysis: party attachment and main criterion Party Support Honesty Manifesto Other
  8. 8. Distribution of voting behaviour by main criterion
  9. 9. Distribution of voting behaviour by party attachment
  10. 10. Distribution of voting behaviour by Region (voters attached to PASOK)
  11. 11. Region of Attica <ul><li>Nearly 2 million people have participated to the general elections of 2009 in Attica region </li></ul><ul><li>In the same region almost 450,000 fewer people have voted for the regional elections (2010) </li></ul><ul><li>The number of invalid (spoiled and blank) ballot papers have raised from about 55,000 to about 142,000. </li></ul><ul><li>As a result the total number of valid ballots (due to abstinence and the increase of non-valid votes) is reduced by about 27%. </li></ul>
  12. 12. 2009-2010 comparison (Attica) - Independent (Left) 2.2% Alavanos 0.5% ANTARSYA 2.3% Hagios - Democratic Left 3.8% Psarianos 4.0% Greens 4.0% Diakos 6.8% SYRIZA 6.2% Mitropoulos 7.5% LAOS 6.6% Georgiadis 10.2% KKE 14.4% Pafilis - Independent (PASOK) 16.0% Dimaras 28.0% ND 20.5% Kikilias 40.3% PASOK 24.0% Sgouros % 2009 Supporting Party % 2010 Candidate
  13. 13. Voting behaviour by p arty attachment (Attica)
  14. 14. VTR estimates for ND and PASOK voters (Attica) *: Rates calculated among voters who have gone to the regional polls 9.6% 7.9% 6.6% 7.1% Other & Blank 3.4% 1.0% 2.3% 0.9% Mitropoulos 0.4% 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% Georgiadis 3.9% 0.8% 2.7% 0.8% Pafilis 32.0% 11.3% 21.8% 10.2% Dimaras 1.9% 61.0% 1.3% 55.4% Kikilias 47.3% 12.0% 32.3% 10.9% Sgouros 31.6% 9.1% Abstention PASOK 2009 * ND 2009 * PASOK 2009 ND 2009
  15. 15. Electoral base of Dimaras <ul><li>Won 2 out of 10 of PASOK 2009 voters. A part of them remain attached to PASOK. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approximately 12.4% of the voters who feel close to PASOK have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Won 1 out of 10 of ND 2009 voters. Most of them remain attached to ND. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approximately 8.6% of the voters who feel close to ND have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras </li></ul></ul><ul><li>During the pre-election period 70% of voters who do not feel close to any party remained undecided. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Only 12 . 8% of the voters who do not feel close to any party have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Conclusions <ul><li>Voting a different candidate </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Factors associated with individual characteristics (party support and criteria used) and factors related to conditions in the region (i.e. independent candidate from the same ideological space). </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Implications from vote analysis in Attica region and directions for further analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Some of PASOK voters who have voted for Dimaras still feel close to PASOK and probably they will return until the next general election. Another part appears to have left PASOK. </li></ul></ul></ul>

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