Political ad spending in 2016. Billions of dollars will be poured into different media outlets both big and small, national and local – but where can we expect the money to be going specifically? Does it take more or less ad money to run for Governor or for the U.S. Senate? And what media outlets are going to grab big shares of these dollars? By tracking ad dollars and evaluating projection models, we can get a close look at where all this money is going – and who stands to benefit. Furthermore, we will take a glimpse at 2020 to see how the landscape will change – and if the titans of political advertising will fall.

1. Tomorrow’s Media, Understood Today
www.BorrellAssociates.com
Your Share of a
Billion:
The Promise of Digital
Political
C o r e y E l l i o t t
V P o f R e s e a r c h
B o r r e l l A s s o c i a t e s
1

2. 2
AGENDA
• Headlines
• Methodology
• Opportunities

3. 3
AGENDA
• Headlines
• Methodology
• Opportunities

4. 4
Between the 4th of July 2015 and Election Day 2016, what
amount will be spent on political advertising throughout
the nation?
A. $3.3 billion
B. $5.8 billion
C. $9.4 billion
D. $16.4 billion
What will be spent in Broadcast TV in 2016
What will be spent JUST for the Presidential contest
2012 political spend

5. 5
$11.4 billion will be spent in 2016
$848.0
$180.1
$5,834.1
$1,142.4
$827.2
$393.0 $365.4
$1,076.7
$720.1
$0.000
$1,000.000
$2,000.000
$3,000.000
$4,000.000
$5,000.000
$6,000.000
$7,000.000
2016 Political
2016 Political

6. 6

7. 7
U.S. President
0.1%
U.S. Senate
0.2%
U.S. House
2.5%
Governors
0.2%
State Attorneys
General
0.3%
State
Assemblies
4.9%
County & Local
Offices
74.4%
Ballot Issues
14.0%
Special
Interests
3.4%
The vast majority of contests are local
in nature
Share of Contests

8. 8
Ad Expenditures - 2016
National Local
Contests - 2016
National Local
More contests = More money
National = Pres., Senate, House
Local = Gov., State, Local, Ballot
/

9. 9
Year 3 and Year 4 spending for national
contests began to merge
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
Local
“off-year”
congressional
Local &
Gov.
Pres.

10. 10
$2,332.5
$6,118.6
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
2015 2016
Ad $
3 out of every 4 dollars spent on National contests for 2016 will be spent IN 2016
Billions have already been spent, but….
U.S. National Contest Political Ad Spending

11. 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Market U.S. Average
Only at beginning of ride
% of total spent by month

12. 12
NEWSPAPERS, $368.36,
4%
OTHER PRINT, $138.92,
2%
BROADCAST TV,
$5,459.70, 64%
CABLE, $737.76, 9%
RADIO, $399.04, 5%
OUT OF HOME3, $179.42,
2%
DIRECT MAIL4, $177.68,
2%
ONLINE/DIGITAL,
$664.76, 8%
TELEMARKETING,
$325.45, 4%
What media will capture over 60% of all National
Political ad dollars by Election day 2016?
Broadcast TV remains dominant this election cycle

13. 13
$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
President Senate House Special Interests
$3,308.37
$896.34
$2,161.59 $2,084.79
$3.3 billion will be spent electing our
next President (2015-16)

14. 14
What about Local?
Ballot Issues
Governor
Attorney General
State Assembly
City/Local

15. 15
Newspapers,
$588.28, 11%
Other Print,
$109.44, 2%
Broadcast TV,
$2,034.62, 39%
Cable, $562.95,
11%
Radio, $533.71,
10%
Out of Home2,
$281.08, 5%
Direct Mail3,
$253.48, 5%
Online/Digital,
$419.36, 8%
Telemarketing,
$485.53, 9%
Broadcast is still #1, but does not
experience the same dominance

16. 16
Newspapers,
5.2%
Other Print,
1.1%
Broadcast TV,
56.5%
Cable, 9.4%
Radio, 7.0%
Out of Home2,
1.3%
Direct Mail3,
1.6%
Online/Digital,
13.7%
Telemarketing,
4.2%
Newspapers,
14.2%
Other Print, 2.9%
Broadcast TV,
29.5%
Cable, 9.2%
Radio, 11.2%
Out of Home2,
7.8%
Direct Mail3,
6.6%
Online/Digital,
6.6%
Telemarketing,
12.1%
There are differences in media spend by
kind of contest
Governor Ballot issues

17. 17
$1,660.88
$1,641.46
$1,602.61
$198.39
$165.12
$798.00
$987.30
$923.77
$19.83
$2.61
State Assembly
Ballot Issues
City/Local
Governor
Attorney General
Local Contests
2015 2016
Local contests experience less
year to year bleed

18. 18
AGENDA
• Headlines
• Methodology
• Opportunities/Tools

19. 19
Three ways to analyze Political spend
1.Spending per media choice
2.Spending per candidate
3.Spending per eligible voter
All three must agree!
Example Sources
Borrell Advertising DB
Ballotpedia.org
National Conference of
State Legislatures
Revenue DB
Opensecrets.org
United States Election
Project
Followthemoney.org
FCC filings
Woodes & Poole
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

20. 20
Year to year fluctuations are most pronounced
at a per voter level

21. 21
President $ 22.35 $ 6.44 $ 127.29
Senate $ 9.46 $ 1.36 $ 26.94
House $ 3.61 $ 1.04 $ 102.87
Governor $ - $ 1.77 $ -
State AG $ 1.77 $ 0.51 $ 10.06
State Assembly $ 17.77 $ 5.12 $ 101.24
Local/City Positions $ 17.15 $ 4.94 $ 97.69
Ballot Issues $ 17.57 $ 5.06 $ 100.05
Special Interests $ 16.21 $ 4.67 $ 92.36
TOTAL $ 105.89 $ 30.92 $ 658.49
per eligble voter $ 31.33 $ 53.99 $ 48.35
Pop. Voters 3.379 .573 13.62
(in millions)
Average spend per voter changes
from market to market

22. 22
Spending per eligible voter can differ market
to market because:
• Population
• Number of contests
• Hot/Cold contests
• Ballot Issues

23. 23

24. 24
Springfield, MA
Des Moines, IA
A Tale of Two Cities
Same population
Different Spending Profile

25. 25
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metropolitan Area 2016 Prelimenary Political Ad Spending Estimates
Estimated Eligible Voters: 453,390 All Estimates in $ Millions.
Media US State State State Local Local Special Media Media Per Voter
Choice President US Senate US House Governor Atty Gen Assembly Offices Ballot Issues Interests3
Totals Share Spend
Broadcast TV $5.97 $0.61 $2.69 $0.00 $0.20 $1.72 $1.39 $1.12 $2.33 $16.03 52.7% $35
Cable $0.99 $0.10 $0.47 $0.00 $0.05 $0.51 $0.35 $0.35 $0.25 $3.07 10.1% $7
Direct Mail1
$0.14 $0.02 $0.08 $0.00 $0.01 $0.09 $0.23 $0.25 $0.09 $0.91 3.0% $2
Digital/On Line $1.05 $0.13 $0.55 $0.00 $0.04 $0.31 $0.31 $0.25 $0.30 $2.93 9.6% $6
Newspapers $0.45 $0.05 $0.18 $0.00 $0.03 $0.37 $0.40 $0.54 $0.13 $2.14 7.0% $5
Out of Home $0.20 $0.01 $0.08 $0.00 $0.01 $0.12 $0.22 $0.30 $0.06 $1.00 3.3% $2
Other Print $0.12 $0.01 $0.04 $0.00 $0.00 $0.07 $0.07 $0.11 $0.04 $0.47 1.5% $1
Radio $0.37 $0.06 $0.33 $0.00 $0.03 $0.37 $0.37 $0.42 $0.13 $2.08 6.9% $5
Telemarketing2
$0.35 $0.04 $0.16 $0.00 $0.02 $0.27 $0.36 $0.46 $0.16 $1.81 5.9% $4
Market Totals $9.63 $1.04 $4.58 $0.00 $0.38 $3.83 $3.69 $3.78 $3.49 $30.43 100% $67
Spending Share 31.6% 3.4% 15.1% 0.0% 1.3% 12.6% 12.1% 12.4% 11.5% 100%
Per Voter Spend: $21 $2 $10 $0 $1 $8 $8 $8 $8 $67
Notes: 1. Includes postage and handling only.
2. Includes robocalls.
3. Includes PAC and Super PAC spending.
Des Moines – More National $

26. 26
Springfield, MA Metropolitan Area 2016 Prelimenary Political Ad Spending Estimates
Estimated Eligible Voters: 514,390 All Estimates in $ Millions.
Media US State State State Local Local Special Media Media Per Voter
Choice President US Senate US House Governor Atty Gen Assembly Offices Ballot Issues Interests3
Totals Share Spend
Broadcast TV $3.30 $0.00 $0.50 $0.00 $0.22 $1.91 $1.54 $1.23 $2.58 $11.27 49.1% $22
Cable $0.55 $0.00 $0.09 $0.00 $0.05 $0.57 $0.38 $0.38 $0.28 $2.30 10.0% $4
Direct Mail1
$0.08 $0.00 $0.02 $0.00 $0.01 $0.10 $0.25 $0.28 $0.10 $0.83 3.6% $2
Digital/On Line $0.58 $0.00 $0.10 $0.00 $0.04 $0.34 $0.34 $0.27 $0.33 $2.01 8.7% $4
Newspapers $0.25 $0.00 $0.03 $0.00 $0.03 $0.41 $0.44 $0.59 $0.14 $1.90 8.3% $4
Out of Home $0.11 $0.00 $0.02 $0.00 $0.01 $0.14 $0.24 $0.33 $0.07 $0.90 3.9% $2
Other Print $0.07 $0.00 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01 $0.07 $0.08 $0.12 $0.04 $0.39 1.7% $1
Radio $0.20 $0.00 $0.06 $0.00 $0.04 $0.41 $0.41 $0.47 $0.15 $1.74 7.6% $3
Telemarketing2
$0.19 $0.00 $0.03 $0.00 $0.02 $0.30 $0.39 $0.50 $0.18 $1.62 7.0% $3
Market Totals $5.33 $0.00 $0.85 $0.00 $0.42 $4.23 $4.08 $4.18 $3.86 $22.96 100% $45
Spending Share 23.2% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 1.8% 18.4% 17.8% 18.2% 16.8% 100%
Per Voter Spend: $10 $0 $2 $0 $1 $8 $8 $8 $8 $45
Notes: 1. Includes postage and handling only.
2. Includes robocalls.
3. Includes PAC and Super PAC spending.
Springfield – More Local $

27. 27
AGENDA
• Headlines
• Methodology
• Opportunities

28. 28
At Local
Opportunity #1

29. 29
Local is
STATE/LOCAL CONTESTS
SHARE (with
National Contests)
NEWSPAPERS $985.23 72.8%
OTHER PRINT $239.92 63.3%
BROADCAST TV $3,073.32 36.0%
CABLE $729.20 49.7%
RADIO $787.77 66.4%
OUT OF HOME3 $651.70 78.4%
DIRECT MAIL4 $369.32 67.5%
ONLINE/DIGITAL $423.84 38.9%
TELEMARKETING $739.67 69.4%
$7,999.96 48.6%
Local is worth $8 billion (2015-16)

30. 30
Beyond TV
Opportunity #2
NEXT SLIDE CONTAINS
A LOT OF NUMBERS

31. 31
'16-'20
2017 '17 (F) '13-'17 2018 '18 (F) '14-'18 2019 '19 (F) '15-'19 2020 '20 (F) '16-'20 '08-'20 Share Point
Media Choice Forecast Share % Change Forecast Share % Change Forecast Share % Change Forecast Share % Change % Change Shift
Newspapers $517.709 9.1% (3.2) $586.900 6.4% (11.1) $390.676 6.8% (22.7) $743.396 5.9% (12.3) 36.2 (1.6)
Other Print $270.129 4.7% 27.6 $109.062 1.2% (14.2) $179.327 3.1% (9.8) $146.242 1.2% (18.8) 50.0 (0.4)
Broadcast TV $1,843.942 32.3% (36.4) $3,562.697 38.6% (25.7) $2,504.167 43.4% (7.2) $4,721.303 37.4% (19.1) 9.3 (13.8)
Cable $682.431 11.9% 43.2 $854.320 9.3% 46.0 $570.002 9.9% 75.7 $1,322.790 10.5% 15.8 182.7 0.4
Radio $554.475 9.7% 33.7 $717.993 7.8% 15.9 $371.462 6.4% 3.3 $1,114.573 8.8% 34.7 101.7 1.6
Out of Home* $611.344 10.7% 27.9 $736.170 8.0% 15.9 $544.384 9.4% 24.3 $465.426 3.7% 18.4 88.4 0.2
Direct Mail** $319.762 5.6% 12.7 $263.567 2.9% (7.2) $147.304 2.6% (18.9) $318.450 2.5% (12.9) 40.0 (0.7)
Online/Digital $480.039 8.4% 2,563.2 $1,990.362 21.6% 2,696.9 $725.736 12.6% 6,000.1 $3,278.254 26.0% 204.5 14,634.4 16.5
Telemarketing $433.628 7.6% 10.2 $399.895 4.3% (23.1) $339.440 5.9% (1.6) $511.846 4.1% (28.9) 2.3 (2.3)
U. S. Total $5,713.460 100% 0.1 $9,220.965 100% 11.1 $5,772.497 100% 14.0 $12,622.281 100% 10.8 80.8
* Includes Cinema.
** Includes postage & handling only
Four media choices on the move

32. 32
$22.25 $5.39 $14.08 $2.72
$159.21
$18.02 $71.16 $11.90
$1,095.90
$480.04
$1,990.36
$725.74
$3,278.25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (P) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F)
FORECAST
Because digital has been “behind” in
Political, it will grow very fast

33. 33
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (P) 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F)
Broadcast TV
Online/Digital
Digital will gain on TV

34. 34
Toward Programobilesocialatic
Opportunity #3

35. 35
'08-'20
2020 '20 (F) '16-'20 '08-'20 Share Point
Media Choice Forecast Share % Change % Change Shift
Total Digital $3,278.254 26.0% 204.5 14,634.4 25.7
By Category
Paid Search $562.367 17.2% 103.7 3,818.4 (47.4)
Display $1,854.366 56.6% 225.9 39,355.2 35.4
Email Marketing $435.006 13.3% 241.6 17,921.7 2.4
Streaming Video $426.516 13.0% 309.4 13,732.7 9.5
By Target
Social Media Sites $2,091.370 63.8% 256.0 40,591.9 40.7
Mobile Devices $1,571.530 47.9% 562.5 225,855.4 44.8
By 2020, over 60% of digital spend will be
on social sites; nearly half will be mobile

36. 36
Programmatic is coming fast to Political
digital ad spend

37. 37
'16 Programmatic Digital
Office/Contest Estimate Share Share
US President $129.87 37.6% 46.9%
US Senate $28.86 8.3% 38.1%
US House $67.91 19.6% 38.4%
Total National $226.64 65.5% 42.8%
Governor $8.24 2.4% 30.3%
Atty Gen $4.89 1.4% 29.8%
St Assembly $17.70 5.1% 13.3%
Local Office $5.56 1.6% 4.1%
Local Ballot $27.38 7.9% 25.4%
Total Local $63.77 18.4% 15.2%
Special Interests $55.43 16.0% 43.2%
'16 Total Estimate $345.84 100% 32.1%
Programmatic is gaining ground

38. 38
UPDATES
• Just beginning to cook
• Ground game
• Bush vs Trump
• Rubio bought TV time
• Gone negative early
• First major endorsement

39. 39
CONCLUSION
• Digital is rising very fast – hits $1 billion
• TV is still #1
• Mass will be replaced by targeted
• By 2020, digital competes with TV
• $8 billion in Local races
• Each market is different

40. Tomorrow’s Media, Understood Today
www.BorrellAssociates.com
THANK YOU!
40