Analysis of estimated, undergraduate enrollment in Massachusetts public colleges and universities in fall 2014, set in the context of past enrollment trends and future projections. After a decade of substantial growth, the system is seeing its first slight decline. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 21, 2014.

1. Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 21, 2014

2. 2
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
First Enrollment Decline in a Decade
Peak Year -2,302 Decline

3. 3
-2,807 -236
+741
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Enrollment by Segment
-3,501 +1,642
+3,446

4. 4
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
Total
Undergraduates
First-Time
Undergraduates
Transfer
Undergraduates
All Institutions -2,302 -899 -198
Community Colleges -2807 -1081 -347
State Universities -236 +48 -82
UMass +741 +134 +231
1-Year % Change by Group
1-Year
# Change
by Group

5. 5
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
One-Year Increase in UMass Enrollment
By Student Residency

6. 6
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
 Campuses with 1-Year Growth of More than 1%
 Bunker Hill* (+1.8%, +253 students)
 Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts (+1.9%, +29 students)
 Massachusetts Maritime Academy* (+2.8%, +38 students)
 UMass Boston* (+2.7%, +334 students)
 UMass Lowell* (+2.2%, +286 students)
* Campus has had increases every year for the past decade.

7. 7
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
1-Year Changes: Detailed View
 Campuses with 1-Year Declines
 Declining community colleges range from -0.1% to -8.8%
 Declining state universities range from -0.4% to -7.6%
 UMass—no declines; one campus was flat

8. 8
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Comparison with Donahue Projection
• The Donahue Institute used Census data and enrollment trends to develop
demographic scenarios for Massachusetts public higher education.
• As new annual American Community Surveys of the Census are released,
the Donahue Institute updates the demographic analyses.
194,545 Actual
193,846
Donahue
Projection

9. 9
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Consensus Among Multiple Projections
NCES: 2010-2023 Change in
Public High School Graduates
Decline 5% or more
Decline up to 5%
Grow up to 5%
Grow 5% or more
Donahue: Public WICHE: High School Graduates Higher Ed Enrollments

10. 10
Highlights: 2014 Enrollment Estimates
Strategies to Address Declines
 Implementation of new
system-wide policies and
practices can significantly
change the trajectory
 The “Big Three”
Completion Plan will be
highlighted in Degrees
of Urgency, third Vision
Project annual report being
released October 28