Winners and Losers in Age of Automation
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See video at: https://youtu.be/uARojvped18 Winners and Losers in the Age of Automation The so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution is upon us. Computers make decisions on their own and their logic now evolves and improves without human intervention. Robots operate independently. Our homes and cars and cities are increasingly connected and automated. The definition of “reality” blurs when we add the suffixes “virtual” or ‘augmented.” If you think technology-driven change has been dramatic over the past decade, just wait. Essential foundations have been laid in computing speed, data science and storage, wireless connectivity, material science, and robotics that presage exponentially more and faster change, from artificial intelligence and machine learning to connected homes and cities, to on-demand manufacturing. In this wide-ranging and provocative talk, punctuated with videos and demos, Mark provides an overview of the current and impending wave of massive change, including implications for individuals, businesses, entire sectors, and even countries and regions. For groups interested in diving deeper into this topic, Mark leads a workshop building on the information and concepts introduced in this talk, connecting emerging technologies and sectors with specific implications for ourselves, our businesses, and our sectors. From augmented reality to artificial intelligence to 3D printing, workshop participants investigate these areas in greater detail and develop game plans to be more proactive in the face of accelerating change, threats, and opportunities.
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Winners and Losers in Age of Automation
- 1. Rise of the Machines Top Technology Trends and Implications Mark Coopersmith February 20, 2018 Winners & Losers in the Age of Automation Mark Coopersmith April 10, 2018
- 2. “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson 1993 Author Futurist © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 3. Want a cup of coffee?
- 9. First Half of the 20th Century © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 10. Second Half of the 20th Century © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 11. Key Drivers and Platforms for the 21st Century Computing Power & Speed Ubiquitous Connectivity Massive & Low Cost Data Storage Moore’s Law continues to exert itself. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 12. Year 2000 Moore’s Law 1968-2011 Microprocessor Transistor Counts © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 13. Key Drivers Expanded Computing Power & Speed Ubiquitous Connectivity Massive & Low Cost Data Storage Moore’s Law continues to exert itself. Materials Science & Chemistry Robotics © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 14. 1. Voice returns as the dominant interface 2. Artificial Intelligence get smarter & more ubiquitous 3. The Internet of Things becomes pervasive 4. 3D Printing expands technology & business models 5. Virtual/Augmented Reality move beyond games 6. The Robots are here, and more are coming Technology Accelerates – Six Trends
- 15. Voice Returns as the Dominant Interface* © 2018 Mark Coopersmith * and within 2 years you won’t be able to tell a computer voice from a real voice
- 16. October 2011 iPhone 4S November 2014 Alexa
- 18. LingLong DingDong A1 © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 19. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 21. Voice was the #1 Headline at the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Powered by Artificial Intelligence
- 22. Artificial Intelligence Gets Smarter What is Artificial Intelligence, or AI? Computer system able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence. • Absorb data or input and respond with “thoughtful” action. • Series of if/then statements. Machine Learning is AI where computers learn on their own when exposed to new data, without any new programming or human intervention. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 23. By the Numbers • 1955: the term “Artificial Intelligence” is coined by John McCarthy, Comp Sci professor at Stanford • 1996 – IBM Deep Blue beats Gary Kasparov at chess • 2018 – Google’s AlphaGo beats Go master Ke Jie • 2017: $5 billion in US VC funding for AI • China is a big and growing player • Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent • China govt to invest $15+ billion in 2018 • Estimated efficiency gains (job losses?) due to AI: * • 56% - Transportation & Storage • 46% - Manufacturing • 44% - Retail • 40% - Financial Services * Price Waterhouse Coopers 2017 © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 24. Ava, an AI robot from the 2015 motion picture “Ex Machina” A few examples: • Customer support and CX • Online support, chatbots • Recommendation agents/systems • Product & service personalization © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 25. Hello. My name is Mary. Welcome to our chat line. How can I be of help? Do you know when you are interacting with a person versus an automated chatbot online? © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 26. Ava, an AI robot from the 2015 motion picture “Ex Machina” A few examples: • Customer support and CX • Online support, Chatbots • Recommendation agents/systems • Product & service personalization • Virtual personal assistants © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 28. Ava, an AI robot from the 2015 motion picture “Ex Machina” A few examples: • Customer support and CX • Online support, Chatbots • Recommendation agents/systems • Product & service personalization • Virtual personal assistants • Research and Analysis • Accounting, finance • Robo investment advisors © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 29. Top Robo-Advisors by assets under management (in millions U.S $, 2017)
- 30. Ava, an AI robot from the 2015 motion picture “Ex Machina” A few examples: • Customer support and CX • Online support, Chatbots • Recommendation agents/systems • Product & service personalization • Virtual personal assistants • Research and Analysis • Accounting, finance • Robo investment advisors • Autonomous vehicles, drones © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 31. SF Chronicle April 2018
- 32. Ava, an AI robot from the 2015 motion picture “Ex Machina” A few examples: • Customer support and CX • Online support, Chatbots • Recommendation agents/systems • Product & service personalization • Virtual personal assistants • Research and Analysis • Accounting, finance • Robo investment advisors • Autonomous vehicles, drones • Natural Language Processing (NLP) • Diagnostics and Predictions © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 33. • Interprets ECGs (ElectroCardioGrams) using Artificial Intelligence • Based on more than 500,000 ECGs and interpretations • July 2017 – Received US FDA Approval • What does this mean for Cardiologists?
- 34. The Internet of (Every)Thing EVERY
- 35. The Internet of (Every)Thing Estimates of 100 billion connected devices and $11 trillion in financial impact by 2025 © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 36. Smart and Connected Homes © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 39. Smart and Connected Retail © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 40. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith Amazon Go China, BingoBox
- 41. Smart and Connected Cities © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 43. VR and AR Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality Move Beyond Games © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 44. Non-gaming applications for AR and VR will surpass games • VR and AR gaming will grow first, but other uses are potentially much bigger • US VR/AR market est: $18B in 2018 $215B in 2021 • VR non-gaming applications: • telepresence and collaboration • training and therapy • remote experiences (travel, shopping) • AR overlays graphics onto the real-world, such as illustrating hidden parts in a car engine or body © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 45. Alibaba offers VR shopping on “Singles Day” in China. $18 B in online sales in 1 day (> Brazil for a year)© 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 46. Cisco Spark VR video © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 47. Created by the same UC Berkeley Haas team that developed Google Earth · Launched 2016 · 750M downloads · $1B in 2016 © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 48. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 49. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 50. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 51. 3D Printing Grows Up © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 52. Video: Conventional Additive 3D Printing
- 53. Chemistry Changes Everything Digital Light Synthesis enables large scale production © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 54. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 55. “Stop prototyping. Start producing.” Joe DeSimone CEO - Carbon 3D © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 56. © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 57. Licensing Consumables Subscription revenues Data Business Model captures multiple revenue streams © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 58. Metals & more…
- 60. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO
- 61. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping
- 63. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping - Warehouse and logistics
- 65. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping - Warehouse and logistics - Retail and food service
- 66. “Robo Barista” at Café X “Flippy” at Cali Burger
- 67. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping - Warehouse and logistics - Retail and food service - Delivery drones
- 68. Amazon flying delivery drone in tests Kiwi Campus food delivery drone at Cal
- 69. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping - Warehouse and logistics - Retail and food service - Delivery drone - Farming R2D2 C3PO
- 70. Cultivate and harvest Monitor & spray Monitor and manage
- 71. The Robots Are Coming But they will look more like R2D2 than C3PO for awhile R2D2 C3PO Beyond manufacturing, more specialized tasks… - Housekeeping - Warehouse and logistics - Retail and food service - Delivery drone - Farming - Bomb squad
- 73. Except for Sony’s adorable new Aibo
- 74. My perspective… 2018 will be a year of “Augmented…” …as these sectors and transitions accelerate: • Augmented autonomous vehicles • Augmented reality • Augmented AI and tools • Emerging business models & new 3D printing technologies • Specialized robotics augmenting human activity
- 75. So what does this mean for me? My co-workers? My children? McKinsey
- 76. Cognizant Consulting – December 2017 “The rising tide of AI and automation has sparked fears of a jobless future. Some jobs will certainly disappear over time, but there will still be lots for humans to do. It just won’t be the work we’re doing today!” - Cognizant, 2017 World Economic Forum “21 million new jobs will be created in the next decade by augmenting human skills with emerging AI and automation. Organizations that act now to transform work and their workplaces will thrive. However, only 7% of firms surveyed by Forrester Research appear to be poised for action.” - Cognizant Center for the Future of Work (CFoW), 2017
- 77. Jack Ma on what to teach our children (and implications for us as leaders)
- 78. Privacy and Security Public Safety Rate of Adoption Jobs and Prosperity Culture Environment Globalization vs Nationalism Fundamental Questions and Issues © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
- 79. “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson 1993 Author Futurist © 2018 Mark Coopersmith
Editor's Notes
- Dna
- Harman Kardon by Samsung, Amazon Echo, Google Home, Sonos, Apple home pod
- Wake word is dingdong
- Waverly Labs Translating Earbuds
- 1955: the term “Artificial Intelligence” is coined by computer scientist John McCarthy
- Will this put cardiologists out of business?
- My home has: Alexa Weather-based irrigation Nest Thermostat Voice controlled lighting Solar panels on roof
- Target Open House SF
- Open in Seattle, expanding this year (2018)
- BingoBox is a Chinese startup from Zhongshan city in Guangdong that runs a line of completely automated mobile convenience stores. Just launched. Uses WeChat for payment.
- Non-gaming applications for AR and VR grow faster than gaming: Though much of the early attention in the AR/VR market has rightfully been focused on gaming, one of the main reasons I expect to see a healthy AR/VR hardware environment in the new year is because of the non-gaming applications I believe will be released in 2018. The Google Earth experience for the HTC Vive gave us an early inkling of the possibilities, but it’s clear that educational, training, travel and experiential applications for these devices offer potential for widespread appeal beyond the strong, but still limited, hardcore gaming market. Development tools for non-gaming AR and VR applications are still in their infancy, so this prediction might take two years to completely play itself out. However, I’m convinced that, just as gaming plays a critical but not overwhelming role in the usage of smartphones, PCs and other computing devices, so, too, will it play an important but not primary role for AR and VR devices. Also, in the near term, the non-gaming portion of AR and VR applications is quite small, so from a growth perspective, it should be relatively easy for these types of both consumer and business-focused applications to grow at a faster pace than gaming apps this year.
- In Nov 2016, online e-commerce giant Alibaba made history, launching a shopping experience driven by VR for Singles Day (China’s anti-Valentine’s Day) that netted USD 17.8 billion in transactions (ALL online Alibaba transactions). More than all of Brazil for a year.
- Common Augmented Reality Platform (CAP) From Bosch Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a technology that superimposes a computer-generated image on a user's view of the real world, thus providing a composite view. AR applications can expand the user’s reality by adding useful additional information. Using a tablet or smart phone where explanations, pictures or drawings are added to the live image once the tablet or phone’s camera is aimed at an area for which AR information is available. Bosch is a pioneer in the use of Augmented Reality applications for the automotive sector and to aid in the development of the most efficient AR applications, Bosch has recently introduced an updated version of the Common Augmented Reality Platform (CAP). While AR has been around for over 20 years it has never fulfilled its productivity promises mainly because each program was a one-time application that had to be built manually making it expensive, time consuming and not scalable. With the introduction of the Bosch CAP these problems were solved and CAP has proven to be a very useful technology that provides fast and easy integration of digital and visual contents into technical documentation, repair manuals, training programs as well as sales platforms and others. This new Bosch CAP program is used for the creation of high-performance Augmented Reality applications and is backed up by a comprehensive database from which it extracts the matching contents for the respective AR application. Besides written information and explanations in text format, video clips, pictures, safety instructions with audio clips, 3D data, circuit diagrams, technical drawings and markers for the tracking configuration can also be added. This new technology is available to any industry and provides a cost-effective use of AR allowing Bosch customers to increase sales revenues while reducing warranty and training costs. When Augmented Reality is used in automotive workshops, repair technician can see much more of the vehicles detail such as the location of hidden areas or components as well as cable routing behind the dashboard which are viewed on a tablet or smart phone screen. Repair instructions and required special tools will also be displayed on the live image. With the touch screen, the displayed objects can be rotated or enlarged as needed and additional information can be viewed often eliminating the need to review in detail service manuals. Augmented Reality when used in the repair shop increases both the speed and quality of vehicle repairs and has proved to be an extremely useful tool for training and education.
- Robert Bosch plans to raise its expertise in the field of augmented-reality (AR) technology by acquiring a minority stake in Munich-based AR specialist Reflekt. The German automotive supplier group has worked together with Reflekt for the past two years, building applications for production, service, training and marketing. Together, they also launched the first software platform for the industrialization of AR. Augmented reality applications offer an enhanced perception by adding digital elements to reality. For example, explanations, 3D objects or videos can be shown on the display of a device pointed at a “real” object. In automotive workshops, components that are not immediately visible can be inspected true to scale and in their correct location. Work instructions, error codes and the required tools can be displayed as well. Said Hans-Peter Meyen, board member in the automotive aftermarket division of Bosch: “In the industrial sector and the automotive aftermarket, AR applications will save time and reduce costs.”
- Joe DeSimone, CEO of Carbon 3D The science of his new 3d printing technology is fascinating. But did you catch the business model? Doesn’t sell the machines. Subscription, plus consumables, plus data, plus – as it turns out – licensing esp for medical devisces.
- Joe DeSimone, CEO of Carbon 3D The science of his new 3d printing technology is fascinating. But did you catch the business model? Doesn’t sell the machines. Subscription, plus consumables, plus data, plus – as it turns out – licensing esp for medical devisces.
- Not since Amelia Earhart’s ill-fated round-the-world trip in 1937 has an aviation attempt so captured the world’s attention. Bertrand Piccard and Andre Borschberg took turns piloting the Solar Impulse–a 100% solar-powered aircraft–on a “17-stage journey [that] covered some 42,000km, taking in four continents, three seas and two oceans.” The project was a decade in the making, resulting in an aircraft that’s about the weight of a car but with the wingspan of a Boeing 747; that span houses 17,000 solar cells. The journey itself took 16.5 months and saw the piloting duo breaking 19 aviation records, including the absolute world record for longest (time duration) uninterrupted solo flight at nearly 118 hours. While this achievement is certainly significant, its inspirational cachet is arguably more so. Upon landing in Abu Dhabi to end the around-the-world flight that began with the intent to raise awareness of the capabilities of renewable energy, Piccard said, “The future is clean. The future is you. The future is now. Let’s take it further.”
- This is already a few years old.
- Soft vs hard skills Where we add value – in the HUMAN SKILLS, leading… - Vision Culture Leadership Motivation Meaning Digitizing the enterprise. NOT in data driven decision-making (computers do millions of simulations in seconds)