Enhancing Worker Digital Experience: A Hands-on Workshop for Partners
Impact adaptation and vulneraility
1. Working Group 2
Findings from AR4
Expectations from AR5
Chris Field
Vicente Barros
Co-chairs, IPCC WG2
8 December 2009
2. WG 2 – AR 4: Themes
• Vast stock of examples of observed changes
• Wide array of projected future impacts
– Magnitude varies with scenario
– Damages concentrated in extreme events
• Vulnerability exacerbated by other stresses
– Hot spots
– Vulnerable sectors and populations in all regions
• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced, or delayed by
mitigation
• Increased adaptation can help reduce future
vulnerability
3. Observed impacts
• Physical and biological systems
• 29,000 time series in chapter 1
• All continents and most oceans
• Likely that AGW has had a discernable influence
AR4, WG2, Fig 14.1
4. Changes in physical and biological systems, 1970-2004:
Statistical support for human influence.
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 1
11. mitigation Managing vulnerability with adaptation and mitigation
adaptation
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 19
12. WG2 in the AR5
• Common frameworks & currencies for impacts,
adaptation, and mitigation
• Broadening the range of assessed impacts
• The interaction of climate change & development
• Integrating climate science with climate impacts
• Assessing new impact studies based on AR5 climate
• Improving the treatment of regional aspects of
climate change
16. AR5:
More thorough treatment of costs of climate change:
common framework & more inclusive currencies
IPCC 2007
17. IPCC AR5
• Move from “it’s real” to “here is the
information you need to make good decisions
for your stakeholders”
– Risk management framing
– Multiple stresses framing
– Full partnership for adaptation