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SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
#ClimateReport #IPCC
Regional climate: Central America and the
Caribbean
Daniel Martínez-Castro
Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña.
Huaraz. Perú
COP26 Science Pavillon November 6th, 2021
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Southern Central America (SCA) and the Caribbean (CAR)
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Common changes in the region
•  Average temperature and extreme high temperature are projected to continue to
increase. Will be similar to the global mean change in Central America, but less tan
the global mean in CAR (high confidence)
•  Relative sea level rise is projected to increase along most coasts (high
confidence)
•  Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification will increase further with 1.5°C of global
warming (high confidence) and with larger increases at 2°C and higher.
•  Tropical cyclones are projected to become more extreme but less frequent
(medium confidence)
•  Annual and summer precipitation are likely to decrease in both subregions, but
with large uncertainties regarding amounts, and with spatial dependence inside the
subregions
•  Observed increase in droughts will continue in the future (high confidence)
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Change in mean temperature (oC) – CMIP6 Ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Change total precipitation (%) – CMIP6 Ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Monthly	precipitation	anomalies	(%)	–	CMIP6	ensemble.	Baseline:	1850-1900
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Maximum	5-day	precipitation	(RX5day)	(%)																										Consecutive	dry	days	(CDD)	
CMIP6	
ensemble.	
Baseline:	
1850-1900
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Thank you!
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@IPCC_CH
linkedin.com/company/ipcc
IPCC: www.ipcc.ch
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Regional synthesis - Central America/Caribbean

  • 1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis #ClimateReport #IPCC Regional climate: Central America and the Caribbean Daniel Martínez-Castro Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña. Huaraz. Perú COP26 Science Pavillon November 6th, 2021
  • 2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Southern Central America (SCA) and the Caribbean (CAR)
  • 3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Common changes in the region •  Average temperature and extreme high temperature are projected to continue to increase. Will be similar to the global mean change in Central America, but less tan the global mean in CAR (high confidence) •  Relative sea level rise is projected to increase along most coasts (high confidence) •  Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification will increase further with 1.5°C of global warming (high confidence) and with larger increases at 2°C and higher. •  Tropical cyclones are projected to become more extreme but less frequent (medium confidence) •  Annual and summer precipitation are likely to decrease in both subregions, but with large uncertainties regarding amounts, and with spatial dependence inside the subregions •  Observed increase in droughts will continue in the future (high confidence)
  • 4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Change in mean temperature (oC) – CMIP6 Ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
  • 5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Change total precipitation (%) – CMIP6 Ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
  • 6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Monthly precipitation anomalies (%) – CMIP6 ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
  • 7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) (%) Consecutive dry days (CDD) CMIP6 ensemble. Baseline: 1850-1900
  • 8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Thank you! @IPCC @IPCC_CH linkedin.com/company/ipcc IPCC: www.ipcc.ch IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int More Information: Follow Us: