Summary of European elections in Poland (May 2014) - final results and outcome. Only 25 thousands of votes between two leading parties.

1. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
1
Sudden change of leader in Polish politics
European Elections in Poland
Results and implications
May 26th, 2014
Executive summary:
 The elections confirm the division of the political scene between Civic Platform,
PiS, Social Democratic Alliance, Peasant’s Party and one party of rebels
(previously Janusz Palikot’s, this time – Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s).
 This is the first win of Jarosław Kaczynski’s Law and Justice after 7 consecutive
defeats.
 After the elections, minor changes in the government and parliament are
necessary.
 The ruling party, Civic Platform, managed to fight back to from a much weaker
position; in March 31% of Poles supported Law and Justice and Civic Platform had
only 27% in polls.
 PSL, the coalition partner of Civic Platform, had a slightly better result than 5 years
ago – despite previous polls. It makes the position of deputy PM and minister of
economy Janusz Piechociński’s much stronger – if the result were worse, he might
have been replaced by former deputy PM, Waldemar Pawlak.
 The “dark horse” candidate was Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s New Right Congress; Mr
Korwin-Mikke is a populist right-wing monarchist, free-market liberal who has
finally come to power for the first time since 1993 when he lost his seat in Polish
parliament. Mr Mikke, forgotten for many years, came back to popularity after a
populist campaign online and with the support of young people who voted for the
first time.
 Janusz Palikot’s “Twój Ruch” – according to some media, which could be possible
coalition partners of Civic Platform after the next elections – lost with 3.45% of
votes.
 Both right-wing parties that were a part of Law and Justice didn’t make it: Zbigniew
Ziobro’s Solidarna Polska (4.4%) and Jarosław Gowin’s Polska Razem (3.08%).
The nationalistic “National Movement” got only 1.4% of votes.

2. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
2
Outcome for Polish politics
The first Poland-wide victory of Law and Justice (PiS) since 2005 is a result of three factors:
 Poles are generally tired of the ruling party – it is the first time in the history of modern
Poland that the same party and the same PM is in power for a second term;
 The new generation of Poles have a right to vote; young people tend not to support the
ruling party;
 People no longer remember the controversial Law and Justice government from 2005-
2007; threatening with a PiS-led government by Civic Platform does not work anymore.
The ruling Civic Platform, during the Ukrainian crisis, halted the downward trend in polls. If
elections were conducted 6 months ago, it might have been a great victory of Law and Justice.
The victory of PiS, if confirmed by final results, will give the party additional strength and
possibly convince people who are currently afraid of supporting the long-term loser, that they
might benefit from supporting the party for the next 18 months. The result proves that it is no
longer unfashionable to publicly support PiS – as it used to be for many years.
The outcome of elections is a strong signal for Civic Platform that it must change its “warm-
water” focused policy of passive management if it plans to win the local and parliamentary
elections. The Civic Platform will have to fight not only against Law and Justice – in what has
been a traditional battle since 2005 – but also against the new populist group of Janusz
Korwin-Mikke.
Mr Korwin-Mikke already announced that he is going to Brussels for only 1.5 years and plans
to return back to local politics soon. It will probably result in a reduction in the level of public
debate, as Mr Korwin-Mikke, known as the enfant terrible of Polish politics, specializes in
providing easy answers for difficult questions and is well known for his non-parliamentarian
language. While it is possible he might get a good result in the next parliamentary elections, he
might as well disappear from the politics if someone more controversial appears in politics.
The additional effect of election will be a consolidation of the left side of the political scene.
The Social Democratic Alliance (SLD) kept its position as the leader of the Left, with all other
left-oriented parties below the threshold. SLD lost 2pp in comparison with 2009, mainly due to
losing support of former president Aleksander Kwaśniewski.
Generally, if the current trend continues, after parliamentary elections in 2015 we might
expect either a coalition of Civic Platform, Peasant’s Party and Social Democratic Alliance, or
Law and Justice with Korwin-Mikke’s New Right (if it survives the next 1.5 years).

3. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
3
Most important politicians moving to Brussels
 Bogdan Zdrojewski, the minister of culture and national heritage – responsible among
other things for copyright legislation.
 Dariusz Rosati, head of parliamentary Public Finance Committee. He is returning to
Brussels after 5 years in Poland (Socialist group, 2004-2009).
 Barbara Kudrycka, former minister of science (2007-2013), former MEP (2004-2007)
 Jan Vincent-Rostowski (most probably), former deputy PM and former minister of
finance; close advisor to PM Donald Tusk.
 Michał Boni, former minister for IT and administration, focused on strategic thinking on
social and technical issues.
 Bolesław Piecha, (Law and Justice), former deputy minister of health (2005-2007),
main health expert of PiS party.
Most important politicians returning to Poland
 Bogusław Sonik, PO, deputy chair of CONT, member of ENVI, one of most active
MEPs, might go back into local politics.
 Wojciech Olejniczak, SLD, membr of AGRI and REGI.
 Paweł Zalewski, PO, deputy chair of INTA, member of subcommittee on security and
defense. Will become the influential expert of PO and possibly a MP.
 Paweł Kowal, member of CPDE and AFET, Eastern-policy expert.
 Marek Migalski, member of CULT, very active in Polish media, might leave politics.
 Jacek Kurski, member of REGI, deputy leader of Solidarna Polska, very active in
Polish media. Has a chance to stay in Polish politics, if he can get support of PiS’
leader.
 Zbigniew Ziobro, member of JURI, leader of Solidarna Polska, in the past a very
popular politician of Law and Justice, in conflict with PiS’ leader.

4. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
4
Election results after counting 91% of votes:
(Final results are expected at 6pm CET)
Party Seats
(vs 2009)
Votes
(v. vs 2009)
Possible
party group
Law and
Justice (PiS)
19
(15)
32.35%
(27.40%)
ECR
Civic
Platform (PO)
19
(25)
31.29%
(44.43%)
EPP
Social Left
Alliance
(SLD-UP)
5
(7)
9.55%
(12.34%)
S&D
Peasant’s
Party (PSL)
4
(3)
7.21%
(7.01%)
EPP
New Right
(KNP)
4
(0)
7.06%
(1.10% - JKM’s
previous party)
Turnout: 23,27% (vs 24,53% in 2009)
Report prepared by:
Lukasz Jachowicz, Head of Public Affairs
MSLGROUP Poland
lukasz.jachowicz@mslgroup.com
@ljachowicz
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