The volatile Dutch elections are setting the scene for key elections across Europe this year. Our Economic Research Assistant, Laura Jones tells us why

1. Dutch 2017 General Elections - setting the scene for key elections across Europe this year
Laura Jones: STANLIB Economic Research Assistant
Not often has the world followed Dutch elections so closely, and never have they been so volatile.
For decades the Dutch elections have been the most boring in Western Europe, with the vast
majority of people voting for the same party for their entire lives, creating only small electoral shifts.
Dutch elections have now become touchy and the tone is definitely harsher, and the issues broader,
with immigration and Islam now topping the agendas of some campaigners.
The fundamentals of the Dutch economy are recovering well from the global financial crisis, with
unemployment at a five-year low and economic growth at 2.3%. Healthcare and pensions are
significant topics of debate, but in the absence of major economic concerns, the biggest issue is
immigration and integration. The agenda has been driven by the anti-Islam and anti-EU populist
rhetoric of Geert Wilders, as well as the wider political climate across Europe. Dominant themes of
discussion have included multiculturalism, globalisation, sovereignty, Dutch values, and how far the
EU works or doesn’t work for the Netherlands.
After the polls closed at 9pm local time (8pm GMT) last night, the count began and the exit polls are
currently being broadcast. The exit polls tend to be fairly accurate and their prediction for the 2012
election was only a total of six seats off out of 150 seats. The Dutch Electoral Council will formally
announce the final election result on Tuesday, March 21 - nearly a week after the election and Dutch
politicians are preparing for long drawn-out coalition talks but there is no fixed timeframe for
forming a government.
Here are the exit poll highlights:
 VVD, the centre-right party led by incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, has emerged as
the biggest party, knocking back the predicted surge of Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV.
 Rutte’s party looks likely to take around 33 seats (a loss of eight MPs) and will (as expected
and is typical for the 150-seat Dutch parliament) need to enter into coalition talks to form a
new government.
 Wilders, despite a projected second-place finish overall with around 20 seats, is not likely to
be part of those negotiations, with all major parties unwilling to work with his populist, anti-
Islam MPs.

2.  The collapse of Rutte’s former coalition partners, the social democratic PvdA, slumping from
38 seats to a projected nine, means the PM will need to seek new agreements. The Christian
Democrats (centre to centre-right) and Democrats 66 (economic: centre-right, social: centre-
left), each with an expected 19 MPs, are the obvious candidates.
 Interestingly, the unexpected victor of the night was GreenLeft, led by 30-year-old Jesse
Klaver, which boosted its four seats to a projected 14. It can now play a bigger role in
coalition talks.
These exit polls suggest that the Netherlands has said ‘Stop’ to the wrong sort of populism. The
result is also in all likelihood welcomed by most in the rest of Europe based on values of openness,
respect for others, and a faith in Europe’s future.