Volume1, Number 7, – JULY 2006
People you should
The “Long Emergency” Will Likely Be Peppered contact about peak oil:
With a Lot of Shorter Ones •Senator Barbara Boxer
Mexico’s oil production is in Iranian facilities, it might well happen
decline, and now Saudi Arabia’s without a lot of warning—for the •Senator Dianne Feinstein
appears to be as well. Canada’s Iranians or for us. If the Iranians do http://www.senate.gov/~feins
Athabasca tar sands are seeing major attack oil facilities and shipping, the
•Congressman Sam Farr
cost overruns, which may lead to the impact on world oil supplies could be
1221 Longworth House
cancellation of a number of projects very severe—causing major disruptions
there. But the really big kicker could to our economy. Washington, DC 20515
be the conflict over Iran’s nuclear In addition to possible disruptions in (202) 225-2861
FAX (202) 225-6791
program. Much of the noise from oil supply, it appears that our electric
Washington about Iran sounds much power system is a bit creaky, as
•Governor Arnold Schw…
too much like what we heard in the demonstrated by a very big blackout
runup to the invasion of Iraq. just a few years ago in the northeast US •President George Bush
Whatever you might think about the and southeast Canada. There wasn’t http://www.whitehouse.gov/
merits of taking out their nuclear any big effort undertaken to improve
facilities with military means (I won’t the grid after that, and power demand
Thanks to all those who have
share my opinion here), there’s a very just keeps growing. Experts like Julian
contributed help and funds to
real possibility that Iran would Darley think that California’s electric
retaliate by destroying or disabling power system could exceed its limits
much of the oil production and this year or next.
shipping in the Middle East. And it Even if they’re wrong, there are other
could happen quite suddenly. good reasons to be prepared.
If the US launches airstrikes against
July 28: Brian Weller in Big Sur August 15: Video--Sustainability 101:
August 1: No-host dinner and showing of Arithmetic, Population and Energy, PG
“End of Suburbia”, Jardines Museum of Natural History
Restaurant, 115 3rd Street, San September 14: SMC Discussion Group:
Juan Bautista, Tuesday, dinner at “Transportation Alternatives”,
5:30 or 6 pm; film at 7pm Thursday, 7-9, Mry. Youth Ctr.
August 3: SMC Discussion Group: “Have October 7: Sustainability and Solar Fair at
We Outgrown our Planet?” Carmel Middle School
Thursday, 6:30-9 pm, Monterey October 5: SMC Discussion—Economics
Youth Center, 777 Pearl Street,
August 8: Richard Heinberg, Big Sur,
Henry Miller Library (outdoors)
Mission: To ensure an orderly transition through the fossil fuel decline by
cooperatively developing a sustainable economy for Monterey County.
SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY
There are many needs you might temporarily have to
meet for yourself. If you’re well equipped for camping,
WHAT PREPARATIONS you should do just fine—
SHOULD YOU MAKE FOR
SERVICE AND SUPPLY Medical Care--A first aid kit could help you avoid developing an
infection if you are injured when medical care is temporarily
Water--A week’s supply of drinking water, for everyone in your
household, seems like a prudent minimum. If you know a good source
of clean fresh surface water, you might also be able to filter or boil it.
We suggest 1 gallon per person per day—and remember pets.
In addition to geological, Food--You could benefit by storing enough non-perishable food to
provide a balanced diet for several days—and the means to prepare and
political, and infrastructure
serve it without the aid of electricity or natural gas. Having a camp
problems, there are the
stove, propane stove or grill, or a hibachi might make meals more
routine, everyday California enjoyable. We camped in a tent for a month or more after our house
problems we like to avoid burned in 1962, and my mother would sometimes clean dishes by
preparing for: earthquakes, wiping them down with salt—it seemed to work.
fires, storms and floods. Keeping Warm and Dry--I remember after the Loma Prieta
earthquake, many people had damaged homes, and many others were
Any of the above could
just afraid to sleep inside. A tent or other alternative shelter would be
temporarily interrupt our
useful if your residence became unavailable or unsafe. Even if you do
access to fuel, food, water, have your home, you may be unable to heat it for an extended period.
medical care and Be prepared to dress warmly enough for extended exposure to
transportation. We all temperatures in the 50’s, indoors.
would be wise to prepare Lighting—Getting around at night during a power outage requires a
flashlight or portable lantern. Many are now available with power
for a week or more of living
supplied by manual shaking or cranking, rather than batteries, and the
without supplies or
high-efficiency LED lights don’t take much juice. Flammable stuff is
services being available best avoided if possible. It’s probably good to have a flashlight (and
from anywhere outside our shoes) next to your bed, as a strong earthquake can result in broken
neighborhood. Remember glass combined with darkness.
New Orleans and Katrina— Transportation—Good shoes and/or a bicycle might be the best you
have, under the right combination of circumstances.
even if they can help, they
Neighbors—Get to know them before an emergency, as they can be
may not make the effort.
your best support system.
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk
management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will
increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs
will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides,
but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of
--Robert L. Hirsch, et al, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk
Management, Science Applications International, for the U.S. Dept. of Energy
SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY
WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH OIL SUPPLIES?
Cost of Athabasca could hit $20- A bit of energy news from the Oil and Gas
billion Journal, via the Energy Bulletin:
Price of Shell's three-stage oil
sands project has soared 50 per HOUSTON -- Noxal-1, a deepwater Gulf of Mexico well
cent in one year trumpeted in March by Mexican President Vicente Fox as
DAVE EBNER, CALGARY -- Costs being a major oil discovery, appears to be a modest gas
to expand Shell Canada Ltd.'s find.
Athabasca Oil Sands Project have Speaking on Mar. 14 from the drilling rig in 935 m of water
soared 50 per cent in just one year, 63 miles off Coatzacoalcos, Fox said the then as-yet-
which means the roughly $7.3- untested well had the potential to produce 10 billion bbl of
billion price tag for the first phase oil (OGJ, Apr. 17, 2006, p. 35).
could rise towards $11-billion. However, after the well operated by state-owned Petroleos
The cost of the full three-stage Mexicanos reached a total depth of 4,000 [meters], the
expansion, pegged at about $13.5- fourth interval tested has flowed 9 [million cubic feet per
billion last year, now might come in day] of gas from a reserve estimated at 245 [billion cubic
at more than $20-billion. feet], said IHS Energy, Houston.
The way ethanol and biodiesel are being made in the
U.S., they process food, made using fossil fuels, in an
attempt to replace petroleum.
Peaking of World Oil Production… www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/the_hirsch_report.pdf
The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/
Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net/
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril, Pierre Chomat
Powerdown, Richard Heinberg
The Long Emergency, James Kunstler
Hubbert’s Peak, Kenneth Deffeyes
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LETTER FROM THE DIRECTOR,
Living in California, along an active fault Awareness Day, what a hit! We met our
line, we're always encouraged to have financial goal and got the word out about
MARK FOLSOM: emergency stores on hand. If you're like Peak Oil to many community members.
me it's one of those quot;to-doquot; items that A very big thank you to all the donors and
Phone: 831 648 1543 gets shoved to the back burner. My volunteers who helped make this day a
mantra is, quot;I'll do it later, when I'm not so success. Second, we signed a contract
busy.quot; This month SMC decided to focus with KRXA 540 AM for a weekly radio
on emergency preparedness from a show called, quot;Tomorrow Mattersquot;, which
broader view - any and all emergencies; will start September 10th at 2 PM and will
black outs to extreme weather. Even if cover all issues relating to resource
Steering Committee Members we're busy, it's time to think like a squirrel conservation. And third,... the Action
Deborah Lindsay, and put some food and water away. Council of Monterey County approved our
Director Peak Oil makes us ask the question, quot;If application for fiscal sponsorship,
deb@sustainablemontereycounty. we were cut off from our regular support meaning, we can now give tax deductible
org systems, what would we do?quot; receipts to financial donors. Please take a
Ruth Smith, 831-620-1303 Please don't put this on the back moment to see if you can give SMC a
Committee Chair and Budget Chair burner, find time to do these contribution to help continue the important
Virginia Chomat, recommendations. I fill 5-gallon glass work of preparing our region for the
Secretary and Co-treasurer juice bottles with water and a drop of decline of fossil fuels.
Pierre Chomat, bleach and store them under beds and in
Resident Expert the back of closets. As a mom, having Next month we focus on global population
Mark Folsom, this water available makes me relax issues... appropriately timed as the U.S.
Newsletter Editor, knowing I can keep my family safe if heads toward 300 million in August.
email@example.com something unexpected happens. Happy summer, Deborah
George Wilson, June was an outstanding month with
831-372-0659 three incredible developments. First our
Committee Evaluation Coordinator Yard Sale Fundraiser and Peak Oil
OIL PRODUCTION DROOPS WHILE DRILLING RISES IN SAUDI ARABIA
Volunteer Coordinator and Urban
Environmental Accords The figure below shows different estimates of Saudi oil production (green and red)
Coordinator drooping a bit, while the number of oil drilling rigs (blue) in use there skyrockets.
Robert Frischmuth, This is the same thing seen in many oil provinces in the past, as their output peaked.
Co-Treasurer (Graph by Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum)
Sustainable Pacific Grove
phone # 831-656-0664
Sustainable Big Sur Coast
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