Smc Newsletter July 06


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Smc Newsletter July 06

  1. 1. Volume1, Number 7, – JULY 2006 People you should The “Long Emergency” Will Likely Be Peppered contact about peak oil: With a Lot of Shorter Ones •Senator Barbara Boxer Mexico’s oil production is in Iranian facilities, it might well happen ct/email/policy.cfm decline, and now Saudi Arabia’s without a lot of warning—for the •Senator Dianne Feinstein appears to be as well. Canada’s Iranians or for us. If the Iranians do tein/email.html Athabasca tar sands are seeing major attack oil facilities and shipping, the •Congressman Sam Farr cost overruns, which may lead to the impact on world oil supplies could be 1221 Longworth House cancellation of a number of projects very severe—causing major disruptions Office Building there. But the really big kicker could to our economy. Washington, DC 20515 be the conflict over Iran’s nuclear In addition to possible disruptions in (202) 225-2861 FAX (202) 225-6791 program. Much of the noise from oil supply, it appears that our electric Washington about Iran sounds much power system is a bit creaky, as •Governor Arnold Schw… too much like what we heard in the demonstrated by a very big blackout runup to the invasion of Iraq. just a few years ago in the northeast US •President George Bush Whatever you might think about the and southeast Canada. There wasn’t merits of taking out their nuclear any big effort undertaken to improve facilities with military means (I won’t the grid after that, and power demand Thanks to all those who have share my opinion here), there’s a very just keeps growing. Experts like Julian contributed help and funds to real possibility that Iran would Darley think that California’s electric SMC retaliate by destroying or disabling power system could exceed its limits much of the oil production and this year or next. shipping in the Middle East. And it Even if they’re wrong, there are other could happen quite suddenly. good reasons to be prepared. If the US launches airstrikes against UPCOMING EVENTS July 28: Brian Weller in Big Sur August 15: Video--Sustainability 101: August 1: No-host dinner and showing of Arithmetic, Population and Energy, PG “End of Suburbia”, Jardines Museum of Natural History Restaurant, 115 3rd Street, San September 14: SMC Discussion Group: Juan Bautista, Tuesday, dinner at “Transportation Alternatives”, 5:30 or 6 pm; film at 7pm Thursday, 7-9, Mry. Youth Ctr. August 3: SMC Discussion Group: “Have October 7: Sustainability and Solar Fair at We Outgrown our Planet?” Carmel Middle School Thursday, 6:30-9 pm, Monterey October 5: SMC Discussion—Economics Youth Center, 777 Pearl Street, Monterey August 8: Richard Heinberg, Big Sur, Henry Miller Library (outdoors) Mission: To ensure an orderly transition through the fossil fuel decline by cooperatively developing a sustainable economy for Monterey County.
  2. 2. SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY There are many needs you might temporarily have to meet for yourself. If you’re well equipped for camping, WHAT PREPARATIONS you should do just fine— SHOULD YOU MAKE FOR SERVICE AND SUPPLY Medical Care--A first aid kit could help you avoid developing an infection if you are injured when medical care is temporarily DISRUPTIONS? unavailable. Water--A week’s supply of drinking water, for everyone in your household, seems like a prudent minimum. If you know a good source of clean fresh surface water, you might also be able to filter or boil it. We suggest 1 gallon per person per day—and remember pets. In addition to geological, Food--You could benefit by storing enough non-perishable food to provide a balanced diet for several days—and the means to prepare and political, and infrastructure serve it without the aid of electricity or natural gas. Having a camp problems, there are the stove, propane stove or grill, or a hibachi might make meals more routine, everyday California enjoyable. We camped in a tent for a month or more after our house problems we like to avoid burned in 1962, and my mother would sometimes clean dishes by preparing for: earthquakes, wiping them down with salt—it seemed to work. fires, storms and floods. Keeping Warm and Dry--I remember after the Loma Prieta earthquake, many people had damaged homes, and many others were Any of the above could just afraid to sleep inside. A tent or other alternative shelter would be temporarily interrupt our useful if your residence became unavailable or unsafe. Even if you do access to fuel, food, water, have your home, you may be unable to heat it for an extended period. medical care and Be prepared to dress warmly enough for extended exposure to transportation. We all temperatures in the 50’s, indoors. would be wise to prepare Lighting—Getting around at night during a power outage requires a flashlight or portable lantern. Many are now available with power for a week or more of living supplied by manual shaking or cranking, rather than batteries, and the without supplies or high-efficiency LED lights don’t take much juice. Flammable stuff is services being available best avoided if possible. It’s probably good to have a flashlight (and from anywhere outside our shoes) next to your bed, as a strong earthquake can result in broken neighborhood. Remember glass combined with darkness. New Orleans and Katrina— Transportation—Good shoes and/or a bicycle might be the best you have, under the right combination of circumstances. even if they can help, they Neighbors—Get to know them before an emergency, as they can be may not make the effort. your best support system. The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. --Robert L. Hirsch, et al, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, Science Applications International, for the U.S. Dept. of Energy
  3. 3. SUSTAINABLE MONTEREY COUNTY WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH OIL SUPPLIES? Cost of Athabasca could hit $20- A bit of energy news from the Oil and Gas billion Journal, via the Energy Bulletin: Price of Shell's three-stage oil sands project has soared 50 per HOUSTON -- Noxal-1, a deepwater Gulf of Mexico well cent in one year trumpeted in March by Mexican President Vicente Fox as DAVE EBNER, CALGARY -- Costs being a major oil discovery, appears to be a modest gas to expand Shell Canada Ltd.'s find. Athabasca Oil Sands Project have Speaking on Mar. 14 from the drilling rig in 935 m of water soared 50 per cent in just one year, 63 miles off Coatzacoalcos, Fox said the then as-yet- which means the roughly $7.3- untested well had the potential to produce 10 billion bbl of billion price tag for the first phase oil (OGJ, Apr. 17, 2006, p. 35). could rise towards $11-billion. However, after the well operated by state-owned Petroleos The cost of the full three-stage Mexicanos reached a total depth of 4,000 [meters], the expansion, pegged at about $13.5- fourth interval tested has flowed 9 [million cubic feet per billion last year, now might come in day] of gas from a reserve estimated at 245 [billion cubic at more than $20-billion. feet], said IHS Energy, Houston. The way ethanol and biodiesel are being made in the U.S., they process food, made using fossil fuels, in an attempt to replace petroleum. Further Reading Peaking of World Oil Production… The Oil Drum Energy Bulletin Oil Addiction: The World in Peril, Pierre Chomat Powerdown, Richard Heinberg The Long Emergency, James Kunstler Hubbert’s Peak, Kenneth Deffeyes SMC Gift Selection Please Donate Now Thank you for contributing to Sustainable Monterey County—beyond Peak Oil. As an organization dedicated to providing free education and outreach to our community we rely on the generous support of friends and donors. We operate on 100% donations. Please consider making a tax-deductible donation of $50 or more. $50 Hosts a discussion group meeting $75 Covers monthly printing costs $120 Annual Helper = $10 a month $240 Supporter = $20 a month $365 Annual Supporter = $1 a day $500 Hosts one show of “Tomorrow Matters” KRXA 540 Am (starts September 10th 2 PM) $1,000 Benefactor $5,000 Sponsor $ _________ (other) I wish to remain anonymous. Please make donations payable to “Action Council of Monterey County”, with SMC in the tag line. Make sure your return address is clear; we will process your donation and mail you an acknowledgement receipt for your tax records. Do not send cash in the mail. Mail to SMC P.O. Box 4060, Monterey, CA 93940 SMC respects the privacy of our donors; we do not sell, trade or rent our donor lists.
  4. 4. LETTER FROM THE DIRECTOR, CONTACT Living in California, along an active fault Awareness Day, what a hit! We met our INFORMATION line, we're always encouraged to have financial goal and got the word out about MARK FOLSOM: emergency stores on hand. If you're like Peak Oil to many community members. me it's one of those quot;to-doquot; items that A very big thank you to all the donors and Phone: 831 648 1543 gets shoved to the back burner. My volunteers who helped make this day a mantra is, quot;I'll do it later, when I'm not so success. Second, we signed a contract E-Mail: busy.quot; This month SMC decided to focus with KRXA 540 AM for a weekly radio on emergency preparedness from a show called, quot;Tomorrow Mattersquot;, which broader view - any and all emergencies; will start September 10th at 2 PM and will black outs to extreme weather. Even if cover all issues relating to resource Steering Committee Members we're busy, it's time to think like a squirrel conservation. And third,... the Action Deborah Lindsay, and put some food and water away. Council of Monterey County approved our Director Peak Oil makes us ask the question, quot;If application for fiscal sponsorship, deb@sustainablemontereycounty. we were cut off from our regular support meaning, we can now give tax deductible org systems, what would we do?quot; receipts to financial donors. Please take a Ruth Smith, 831-620-1303 Please don't put this on the back moment to see if you can give SMC a Committee Chair and Budget Chair burner, find time to do these contribution to help continue the important Virginia Chomat, recommendations. I fill 5-gallon glass work of preparing our region for the Secretary and Co-treasurer juice bottles with water and a drop of decline of fossil fuels. Pierre Chomat, bleach and store them under beds and in Resident Expert the back of closets. As a mom, having Next month we focus on global population Mark Folsom, this water available makes me relax issues... appropriately timed as the U.S. Newsletter Editor, knowing I can keep my family safe if heads toward 300 million in August. something unexpected happens. Happy summer, Deborah George Wilson, June was an outstanding month with 831-372-0659 three incredible developments. First our Committee Evaluation Coordinator Yard Sale Fundraiser and Peak Oil Denyse Frischmuth, 831-643-0707 OIL PRODUCTION DROOPS WHILE DRILLING RISES IN SAUDI ARABIA Volunteer Coordinator and Urban Environmental Accords The figure below shows different estimates of Saudi oil production (green and red) Coordinator drooping a bit, while the number of oil drilling rigs (blue) in use there skyrockets. Robert Frischmuth, This is the same thing seen in many oil provinces in the past, as their output peaked. Co-Treasurer (Graph by Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum) Program Heads, Annette Chaplin, 831-372-8725 Sustainable Pacific Grove Linda Parker, phone # 831-656-0664 Sustainable Big Sur Coast Newsletter Design by Adrienne Allen We’re on the Web! See us at: groups/monterey