Laura McLay gave a presentation to new educators about her journey from a shy teaching assistant to a comfortable professor. She discussed wishing she knew it takes 5-10 years to become a great teacher. She emphasized managing student expectations by setting clear expectations and warnings. She provided tips for active learning techniques like embracing awkward silences and using in-class examples. She also stressed the importance of prioritizing tasks and finding a balance with research. Overall, she encouraged new educators to be patient with themselves and find teaching styles that feel authentic.
Wicked problems in operations researchLaura Albert
Many public sector problems are "wicked problems" that have strong social, legal, and political components with many stakeholders and changing requirements that are difficult to recognize. Unlike tame problems that can be solved with operations research, wicked problems interact with each other in complex ways and have no definitive formulation or stopping rules for determining solutions. Solutions to wicked problems also cannot be clearly evaluated as true or false and may have unforeseen consequences that emerge over long periods, making repeated learning attempts difficult.
Linear vs. semidefinite extended formulationsspokutta
The document discusses linear programs (LPs) and extended formulations for solving problems like the traveling salesman problem (TSP). It presents the following key points:
1) A previous claim that the TSP could be solved in polynomial time via an LP was disproven, showing LPs require super-polynomial size.
2) The document shows that every extended formulation (EF) of the TSP polytope requires size 2Ω(n1/4), via reductions from EFs of quantum stabilizer problems and cut polytopes.
3) This establishes a new connection between semidefinite programs and quantum information, and generalizes prior work linking classical communication complexity to linear EFs. The
Integer programming for locating ambulancesLaura Albert
The document discusses optimization models for locating ambulances to maximize coverage of emergency calls within a response time threshold. It summarizes three integer programming models of increasing complexity:
1. The maximal covering location problem considers call volumes and coverage areas but not backup coverage or balanced workloads.
2. The p-median model maximizes expected coverage considering non-deterministic travel times and balanced workloads but not backup coverage.
3. The final model extends the p-median model to maximize expected backup coverage by assigning priority responses from multiple ambulances to each call based on their availability probabilities.
Operations Research for Homeland Security and Beyond!Laura Albert
Operations Research for Homeland Security and Beyond! Laura Albert McLay's talk on aviation security at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's 50th anniversary reunion for ISYE.
El documento describe la estructura y las partes principales del sistema nervioso central humano. Consiste en el encéfalo, que incluye el cerebro, el cerebelo y el tronco cerebral, y la médula espinal. El encéfalo se divide en 7 partes principales y el cerebro contiene dos hemisferios cerebrales unidos por el cuerpo calloso. La médula espinal y el encéfalo están protegidos por hueso, mientras que el sistema nervioso periférico no lo está y transmite información por todo el cuerpo.
Laura McLay gave a presentation to new educators about her journey from a shy teaching assistant to a comfortable professor. She discussed wishing she knew it takes 5-10 years to become a great teacher. She emphasized managing student expectations by setting clear expectations and warnings. She provided tips for active learning techniques like embracing awkward silences and using in-class examples. She also stressed the importance of prioritizing tasks and finding a balance with research. Overall, she encouraged new educators to be patient with themselves and find teaching styles that feel authentic.
Wicked problems in operations researchLaura Albert
Many public sector problems are "wicked problems" that have strong social, legal, and political components with many stakeholders and changing requirements that are difficult to recognize. Unlike tame problems that can be solved with operations research, wicked problems interact with each other in complex ways and have no definitive formulation or stopping rules for determining solutions. Solutions to wicked problems also cannot be clearly evaluated as true or false and may have unforeseen consequences that emerge over long periods, making repeated learning attempts difficult.
Linear vs. semidefinite extended formulationsspokutta
The document discusses linear programs (LPs) and extended formulations for solving problems like the traveling salesman problem (TSP). It presents the following key points:
1) A previous claim that the TSP could be solved in polynomial time via an LP was disproven, showing LPs require super-polynomial size.
2) The document shows that every extended formulation (EF) of the TSP polytope requires size 2Ω(n1/4), via reductions from EFs of quantum stabilizer problems and cut polytopes.
3) This establishes a new connection between semidefinite programs and quantum information, and generalizes prior work linking classical communication complexity to linear EFs. The
Integer programming for locating ambulancesLaura Albert
The document discusses optimization models for locating ambulances to maximize coverage of emergency calls within a response time threshold. It summarizes three integer programming models of increasing complexity:
1. The maximal covering location problem considers call volumes and coverage areas but not backup coverage or balanced workloads.
2. The p-median model maximizes expected coverage considering non-deterministic travel times and balanced workloads but not backup coverage.
3. The final model extends the p-median model to maximize expected backup coverage by assigning priority responses from multiple ambulances to each call based on their availability probabilities.
Operations Research for Homeland Security and Beyond!Laura Albert
Operations Research for Homeland Security and Beyond! Laura Albert McLay's talk on aviation security at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's 50th anniversary reunion for ISYE.
El documento describe la estructura y las partes principales del sistema nervioso central humano. Consiste en el encéfalo, que incluye el cerebro, el cerebelo y el tronco cerebral, y la médula espinal. El encéfalo se divide en 7 partes principales y el cerebro contiene dos hemisferios cerebrales unidos por el cuerpo calloso. La médula espinal y el encéfalo están protegidos por hueso, mientras que el sistema nervioso periférico no lo está y transmite información por todo el cuerpo.
O documento descreve os sete sacramentos da Igreja Católica como encontros vitais com Cristo que marcam os principais momentos da vida humana. Os sacramentos comunicam a graça de Deus e a vida divina, e incluem Batismo, Confissão, Eucaristia, Crisma, Ordem, Matrimônio e Unção dos Enfermos.
El artículo presenta los objetivos y métodos del análisis neuropsicológico de los problemas de aprendizaje escolar desde una perspectiva histórico-cultural. Se identifica la unidad de análisis neuropsicológico, se ubica el nivel neuropsicológico dentro de la actividad de aprendizaje escolar y se presenta una clasificación de los mecanismos neuropsicológicos. Se propone realizar el análisis de los problemas de aprendizaje mediante la evaluación de las acciones escolares del niño, estable
Los felinos son grandes mamíferos depredadores caracterizados por sus cuerpos fuertes, veloces e inquietantes miradas. Las cinco especies más grandes son el tigre, león, jaguar, leopardo y leopardo de las nieves. Todos los felinos comparten rasgos como ser carnívoros, cazadores rápidos y fuertes, y poseer una visión aguda que les permite cazar de noche.
1. Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang larutan isotonik, jenis dehidrasi, jenis cairan dalam tubuh, fase penyembuhan luka, skala nyeri, tanda infeksi, faktor penyembuhan luka, tujuan pemberian obat yang benar, lokasi pemberian injeksi, sudut penyuntikan, tujuan pemberian darah, penyakit yang dapat ditularkan melalui darah, reaksi transfusi darah, nilai normal pemeriksaan
El documento describe dos tipos de animales: animales domésticos y de granja. Los animales domésticos, también conocidos como mascotas, son animales que los humanos eligen como compañía y son considerados miembros de la familia, incluyendo perros, gatos y pájaros. Los animales de granja han sido domesticados por los humanos para ayudar con el trabajo o producir carne, leche o huevos, e incluyen vacas, cerdos, gallinas y ovejas.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like anxiety and depression.
Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP) ini membahas tentang pelaksanaan pembelajaran mata pelajaran Akidah Akhlak di Madrasah Aliyah Plus Khadijah. RPP ini menjelaskan kompetensi yang akan dicapai, indikator pencapaian, materi pelajaran tentang syirik, metode pembelajaran, dan langkah-langkah kegiatan pembelajaran yang meliputi pendahuluan, inti, dan penutup. RPP ini juga menjelaskan penilaian
Talent Grids - Empowering Companies, Campuses and TalentAnne Thomas
Talent Grids is the brainchild of a very dynamic and enterprising team from IIT Kanpur and IIM Calcutta. Talent Grids is the most unique model aimed at bridging the Talent Demand Supply Gap. It is the most revolutionary Value Added Model for Colleges, Students and Recruiters! With a tremendous focus on technology, the initiative aims at Reinventing Fresher Hiring and finally ‘Spreading Happiness in the Talent Grids’. Talent Grids is India’s Biggest Fresher Hiring Model (On and Off Campus) through host of solutions for entry level recruitments in the technology domain. Our partner recruiters have adopted Talent Grids as the most effective off campus hiring model to get pre-assessed talent pool for Strategic and Just In Time hiring.
Colon specific drug delivery system approaches and applicationTukaram Patil
This document discusses colon specific drug delivery approaches and applications. It begins with an introduction explaining the advantages of targeting drug delivery to the colon and protecting drugs from the upper gastrointestinal tract. It then discusses various factors that affect colonic drug absorption and several primary and new approaches for colon targeted drug delivery systems, including pH sensitive polymers, delayed release systems, and microbial triggered delivery. Examples of different delivery approaches like pulsincap systems, pressure controlled systems, and prodrug approaches are also described. The document concludes that colon targeted delivery offers benefits over traditional systems and novel approaches provide more specific delivery than primary methods.
Depuis janvier 2017, la moitié des offices de tourisme néo-aquitains est reconfigurée, réassemblée, restructurée, regroupée... Cette série de webséminaires "365 jours dans la vie d'un Office de tourisme" permettra d'avoir un panorama rapide de la gestion d'une structure sous les trois formes juridiques les plus répandues : association, EPIC, SPA.
This document provides an overview of marketing concepts including definitions of marketing, the modern concept of marketing, features of marketing, marketing management, differences between marketing and selling, marketing philosophies, functions of marketing, the role of marketing, elements of the marketing mix including product, price, place, and promotion. It also discusses products and their classification, branding, packaging, labelling, pricing factors, channels of distribution, and factors that determine the selection of distribution channels. The key topics covered include understanding what marketing is, its importance for businesses and the economy, and the various tools and strategies used in marketing management.
El grupo 12 del turno mañana, compuesto por 6 estudiantes de arquitectura y diseño, tiene la tarea de fotografiar distintos edificios y lugares de la universidad ubicada en Morón. Deberán sacar fotos exteriores de dos edificios anexos y del interior de uno de ellos, así como también fotos de un integrante solo y en grupo.
Should a football team run or pass? A linear programming approach to game theoryLaura Albert
The document discusses using game theory and linear programming to determine the optimal strategies for an offense and defense in football. It presents a payoff matrix showing the expected yardage gains/losses from different play combinations. By modeling the problem as a zero-sum game and finding the Nash equilibrium strategies, it shows the offense should run half the time and pass half the time, resulting in an average of 2.5 yards per play. The defense should prepare for a run a quarter of the time and a pass three quarters of the time, also yielding an average of 2.5 yards allowed per play.
1. The document discusses quantiles and quantile regressions, which are important concepts in analyzing inequalities, risk, and other areas where conditional distributions are relevant.
2. Quantile regression models the relationship between covariates X and the conditional quantiles of the response variable Y. This generalizes ordinary least squares regression, which models the conditional mean of Y.
3. Median regression uses the 1-norm (sum of absolute deviations) instead of the 2-norm (sum of squared deviations) used in OLS. It estimates the conditional median of Y rather than the conditional mean.
This document discusses advanced econometrics techniques using simulations and bootstrapping. It begins with an overview of linear regression models and how asymptotics and finite sample properties can be examined using bootstrap techniques. It then provides historical references for permutation methods, the jackknife, and bootstrapping. The document goes on to provide examples of how bootstrapping can be used to quantify bias, examine linear regression models both parametrically and using residuals, and compute integrals. It emphasizes that bootstrapping provides a way to examine properties without relying on asymptotic approximations.
Monte carlo simulation for floorball resultsMiikka Kataja
An Aalto university student project for course "Simulation".
A simple example how analytics and statistics can be used in sports, especially to predict match results in Floorball or other team sports.
Amy Langville, Professor of Mathematics, The College of Charleston in South C...MLconf
Learning to Play Sports: Sports Analytics is an active and growing field. With large datasets from biometric devices and player tracking equipment, sports teams can benefit from techniques in data analytics and machine learning. This talk will discuss work in the areas of March Madness and game-to-game analysis. With the emergence of algorithms to study such dynamics as player performance and fan engagement, the collection of data also becomes paramount. Professional sports organizations have access to premium technology. This talk will also discuss how such work can be transferred to the college and secondary levels. Machine learning allows cutting edge technology to play from the bench.
O documento descreve os sete sacramentos da Igreja Católica como encontros vitais com Cristo que marcam os principais momentos da vida humana. Os sacramentos comunicam a graça de Deus e a vida divina, e incluem Batismo, Confissão, Eucaristia, Crisma, Ordem, Matrimônio e Unção dos Enfermos.
El artículo presenta los objetivos y métodos del análisis neuropsicológico de los problemas de aprendizaje escolar desde una perspectiva histórico-cultural. Se identifica la unidad de análisis neuropsicológico, se ubica el nivel neuropsicológico dentro de la actividad de aprendizaje escolar y se presenta una clasificación de los mecanismos neuropsicológicos. Se propone realizar el análisis de los problemas de aprendizaje mediante la evaluación de las acciones escolares del niño, estable
Los felinos son grandes mamíferos depredadores caracterizados por sus cuerpos fuertes, veloces e inquietantes miradas. Las cinco especies más grandes son el tigre, león, jaguar, leopardo y leopardo de las nieves. Todos los felinos comparten rasgos como ser carnívoros, cazadores rápidos y fuertes, y poseer una visión aguda que les permite cazar de noche.
1. Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang larutan isotonik, jenis dehidrasi, jenis cairan dalam tubuh, fase penyembuhan luka, skala nyeri, tanda infeksi, faktor penyembuhan luka, tujuan pemberian obat yang benar, lokasi pemberian injeksi, sudut penyuntikan, tujuan pemberian darah, penyakit yang dapat ditularkan melalui darah, reaksi transfusi darah, nilai normal pemeriksaan
El documento describe dos tipos de animales: animales domésticos y de granja. Los animales domésticos, también conocidos como mascotas, son animales que los humanos eligen como compañía y son considerados miembros de la familia, incluyendo perros, gatos y pájaros. Los animales de granja han sido domesticados por los humanos para ayudar con el trabajo o producir carne, leche o huevos, e incluyen vacas, cerdos, gallinas y ovejas.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like anxiety and depression.
Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP) ini membahas tentang pelaksanaan pembelajaran mata pelajaran Akidah Akhlak di Madrasah Aliyah Plus Khadijah. RPP ini menjelaskan kompetensi yang akan dicapai, indikator pencapaian, materi pelajaran tentang syirik, metode pembelajaran, dan langkah-langkah kegiatan pembelajaran yang meliputi pendahuluan, inti, dan penutup. RPP ini juga menjelaskan penilaian
Talent Grids - Empowering Companies, Campuses and TalentAnne Thomas
Talent Grids is the brainchild of a very dynamic and enterprising team from IIT Kanpur and IIM Calcutta. Talent Grids is the most unique model aimed at bridging the Talent Demand Supply Gap. It is the most revolutionary Value Added Model for Colleges, Students and Recruiters! With a tremendous focus on technology, the initiative aims at Reinventing Fresher Hiring and finally ‘Spreading Happiness in the Talent Grids’. Talent Grids is India’s Biggest Fresher Hiring Model (On and Off Campus) through host of solutions for entry level recruitments in the technology domain. Our partner recruiters have adopted Talent Grids as the most effective off campus hiring model to get pre-assessed talent pool for Strategic and Just In Time hiring.
Colon specific drug delivery system approaches and applicationTukaram Patil
This document discusses colon specific drug delivery approaches and applications. It begins with an introduction explaining the advantages of targeting drug delivery to the colon and protecting drugs from the upper gastrointestinal tract. It then discusses various factors that affect colonic drug absorption and several primary and new approaches for colon targeted drug delivery systems, including pH sensitive polymers, delayed release systems, and microbial triggered delivery. Examples of different delivery approaches like pulsincap systems, pressure controlled systems, and prodrug approaches are also described. The document concludes that colon targeted delivery offers benefits over traditional systems and novel approaches provide more specific delivery than primary methods.
Depuis janvier 2017, la moitié des offices de tourisme néo-aquitains est reconfigurée, réassemblée, restructurée, regroupée... Cette série de webséminaires "365 jours dans la vie d'un Office de tourisme" permettra d'avoir un panorama rapide de la gestion d'une structure sous les trois formes juridiques les plus répandues : association, EPIC, SPA.
This document provides an overview of marketing concepts including definitions of marketing, the modern concept of marketing, features of marketing, marketing management, differences between marketing and selling, marketing philosophies, functions of marketing, the role of marketing, elements of the marketing mix including product, price, place, and promotion. It also discusses products and their classification, branding, packaging, labelling, pricing factors, channels of distribution, and factors that determine the selection of distribution channels. The key topics covered include understanding what marketing is, its importance for businesses and the economy, and the various tools and strategies used in marketing management.
El grupo 12 del turno mañana, compuesto por 6 estudiantes de arquitectura y diseño, tiene la tarea de fotografiar distintos edificios y lugares de la universidad ubicada en Morón. Deberán sacar fotos exteriores de dos edificios anexos y del interior de uno de ellos, así como también fotos de un integrante solo y en grupo.
Should a football team run or pass? A linear programming approach to game theoryLaura Albert
The document discusses using game theory and linear programming to determine the optimal strategies for an offense and defense in football. It presents a payoff matrix showing the expected yardage gains/losses from different play combinations. By modeling the problem as a zero-sum game and finding the Nash equilibrium strategies, it shows the offense should run half the time and pass half the time, resulting in an average of 2.5 yards per play. The defense should prepare for a run a quarter of the time and a pass three quarters of the time, also yielding an average of 2.5 yards allowed per play.
1. The document discusses quantiles and quantile regressions, which are important concepts in analyzing inequalities, risk, and other areas where conditional distributions are relevant.
2. Quantile regression models the relationship between covariates X and the conditional quantiles of the response variable Y. This generalizes ordinary least squares regression, which models the conditional mean of Y.
3. Median regression uses the 1-norm (sum of absolute deviations) instead of the 2-norm (sum of squared deviations) used in OLS. It estimates the conditional median of Y rather than the conditional mean.
This document discusses advanced econometrics techniques using simulations and bootstrapping. It begins with an overview of linear regression models and how asymptotics and finite sample properties can be examined using bootstrap techniques. It then provides historical references for permutation methods, the jackknife, and bootstrapping. The document goes on to provide examples of how bootstrapping can be used to quantify bias, examine linear regression models both parametrically and using residuals, and compute integrals. It emphasizes that bootstrapping provides a way to examine properties without relying on asymptotic approximations.
Monte carlo simulation for floorball resultsMiikka Kataja
An Aalto university student project for course "Simulation".
A simple example how analytics and statistics can be used in sports, especially to predict match results in Floorball or other team sports.
Amy Langville, Professor of Mathematics, The College of Charleston in South C...MLconf
Learning to Play Sports: Sports Analytics is an active and growing field. With large datasets from biometric devices and player tracking equipment, sports teams can benefit from techniques in data analytics and machine learning. This talk will discuss work in the areas of March Madness and game-to-game analysis. With the emergence of algorithms to study such dynamics as player performance and fan engagement, the collection of data also becomes paramount. Professional sports organizations have access to premium technology. This talk will also discuss how such work can be transferred to the college and secondary levels. Machine learning allows cutting edge technology to play from the bench.
Monte Carlo simulations and discrete event simulations embrace randomness and uncertainty by sampling from probability distributions. They allow modeling complex predictions and systems where outcomes depend on probabilistic events. Discrete event simulation can estimate the probabilities of outcomes in a sports tournament by simulating matchups as probabilistic coin flips. Bootstrap resampling techniques estimate properties of sample estimates by resampling the observed data with replacement, and block bootstrap preserves correlation structures. Biased bootstrap can non-uniformly resample to estimate distributions based on additional information.
The document outlines a study that aimed to predict how SMU would have performed in the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament had they been eligible after being banned for violations. The study involved cleaning data from past tournaments, using a decision tree to predict SMU would be seeded 6th, adjusting the 2016 bracket to include SMU as the 6th seed, building logistic regression and random forest models to simulate tournament results, and finding SMU had a 1.5% probability of winning as a 6th seed. The study also compared predictions to Vegas odds and identified areas for further analysis.
ShootingStars_Powerpoint for march madnessPritha Sinha
This document describes the analysis and modeling process used to predict the results of the 2016 NCAA basketball tournament. Key steps included data preparation, feature selection, model training and validation, and prediction review. The top performing models were then ensembled through majority voting. The final model achieved 78% accuracy on Round of 32 predictions and 75% accuracy for Sweet 16 and Elite 8 predictions. Additional analysis identified top performing teams over time and the most common "Cinderella" teams.
Apply Data Mining and Machine Learning technique(Feature Selection, Classification Algorithm, Model Optimization, System Ensemble) to predict wining probability for each team.
Do lower-seeded teams really play with an "underdog" mentality?Kymee Noll
In my Elementary Statistics class my freshman year of college, our final project was one of our choice. I chose to compare field goal percentages between higher and lower seeded teams in the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Honors Research Colloquium Final PosterMark Edwards
Ranking college football teams is challenging due to many possible rankings and factors to consider. The current Bowl Championship Series system uses opinion polls and computer rankings but has issues with bias and lack of transparency. The CMS+ system uses a genetic algorithm with degree of victory and relative distance inputs to rank teams. Researchers improved CMS+ by defining factors for degree of victory like home field advantage and defining a matrix to input rankings were computed faster by reducing generations from 100,000 to 3,500-4,000. Further research could explore more factors and reducing runtime.
This WebQuest uses NCAA March Madness basketball statistics and bracketology to teach mathematics concepts to 5th through 9th grade students. Students will be split into groups to research team statistics like win percentages, points scored, and more. They will use this data to predict winners and fill out brackets. Later, they will analyze what predictions were wrong and explain using mathematical concepts like fractions and probabilities. The goal is to engage students in mathematics by relating it to a real-world interest of sports and March Madness.
This document discusses projecting fantasy football points for quarterbacks using linear regression models. The authors aim to reproduce and improve projections from various websites by training linear regression models on NFL player statistics and game data from 2008-2014. They explore using single and multiple variable regression models to predict a quarterback's total seasonal fantasy points based on prior year performance and team/opponent factors. The best models will achieve high R2 and low error values when evaluated on a test dataset.
Network analysis methods can be used for sports analytics applications like team and lineup ranking. SportsNetRank ranks teams based on their win-loss network using PageRank centrality. LinNet evaluates lineups based on their matchup network using network embeddings. It learns latent representations of lineups using node2vec and predicts outcomes of new lineup matchups. LinNet outperforms adjusted plus-minus and PageRank in predicting unseen lineup matchups, with probabilities well calibrated and Brier scores around 0.19. Substitution networks also show potential for explaining team performance. Further work could optimize network embeddings and model lineup ability curves.
The document describes a statistical model created to predict NBA playoff results based on regular season statistics. Key steps included collecting NBA data, selecting important features through correlation analysis like net rating and true shooting percentage, training a logistic regression model on past seasons, and testing it on new seasons. The model successfully predicted 6 of 6 teams that reached conference finals, though missed some like the 2023 Miami Heat. Improving the model could include additional stats like all-NBA players. This type of predictive analytics could benefit NBA teams and be applied to other sports.
The document summarizes a study that uses probabilities from multiple predictive models to predict the outcomes of the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament. Ratings from two models (Massey and Colley) were modified with different weights, like location of games and winning streaks. This produced 36 sets of team rankings. Probabilities of advancement for each team were calculated by counting how often they progressed in the 36 brackets. The final bracket was created based on these probabilities, with higher probability teams advancing each round. On average over 15 years, this probabilities method predicted games with similar accuracy to the Uniform Massey model, though Massey performed slightly better in later rounds. The probabilities method provides easy to understand output about a team's likelihood of advancing.
This document proposes a new college football playoff system as an alternative to the current BCS system and other suggested playoff models. The key aspects are dividing 120 teams into 10 equal conferences based on region, having a regular season of divisional games within conferences, followed by conference playoffs and regional round robins to determine bowl matchups and rankings. This system aims to address criticisms of the BCS while preserving elements like the regular season and traditional bowls. It also aims to better measure conference strengths and create competitive matchups throughout the season.
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports AnalyticsCartegraph
Learn how you can use sports analytics to improve and predict player performance in baseball, basketball and football.
For more information on the Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium, the Loras College MBA in Business Analytics or the Loras College Business Analytics Certificate visit www.loras.edu/mba or www.loras.edu/bigdata.
Systems Thinking with the Ball Point Game - A&B 2019Jeff Kosciejew
This document introduces systems thinking concepts through an exercise called the Ball Point Game. It defines a system as a network of interdependent components working together toward a common aim. Systems thinking views relationships rather than isolated parts and sees how parts interact rather than analyzing them separately. The document uses the Ball Point Game to demonstrate these concepts, where teams pass balls through their members according to rules while aiming to improve their score. It discusses analyzing the game and one's work as a system and addresses how the interactions of parts produce emergent behavior.
Mathematical and Psychological Fundamentals of Competition Systems in Modern Mobile Games
(White Nights Conference Moscow 2016)
The official conference website — http://wnconf.com
This document provides information for the CACC Basketball Tournament including:
- Contact information for tournament staff and participating schools
- Tournament schedule and structure including bracket, dates, locations for games
- Procedures for tie-breaking, protests, conduct, and conflict resolution
- Details on awards banquet and all-conference selections
- Facility information including parking, locker rooms, and rules
- Ticket and admission information
- Information for operations including scorer's table, media, security, and medical support
Similar to Bracketology talk at the Crossroads of ideas (20)
Optimization with impact: my journey in public sector operations research Laura Albert
eynote talk at the Advances in Data Science & Operations Research Virtual Conference, presented by Universidad Galileo in collaboration with INFORMSttt. It's the first INFORMS conference made for Latino America that brings together the scientific community from the areas of operations research, business intelligence, and data science.
Should a football team go for a one or two point conversion? A dynamic progra...Laura Albert
The document discusses using dynamic programming to determine when an NFL team should attempt a one-point or two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown. It models the problem as a series of decisions based on the score differential and remaining possessions. The dynamic programming approach considers all possible outcomes at each stage and guarantees an optimal solution, without enumerating all possibilities. It formulates the problem as a longest path problem to maximize the probability of winning.
Designing emergency medical service systems to enhance community resilience Laura Albert
Emergency response to patients with medical needs after a disaster is a critical aspect of public safety and community resilience. An effective response to emergency medical patients can be achieved by designing a system that
- Allocates limited resources such as ambulances in resource-constrained settings,
- Leverages data and triage information to inform the design of response districts, and
- Sheds light on how these decisions change after a disaster.
In this talk, Dr. Laura Albert will discuss how analytical methods can be used to design emergency response systems and provide guidance into how to design data-driven emergency response systems. She will discuss how system design decisions must change after weather disasters when the system is congested and critical infrastructure is impaired.
A lecture on location models for public sector operations research. Topics include facility location, coverage models, the p-median model, the p-center model, integer programming.
Delivering emergency medical services:Research, theory, and applicationLaura Albert
This document provides an overview of emergency medical services (EMS) systems and how operations research can help improve them. It discusses how EMS systems work, how their performance is evaluated, and ways to enhance performance. Some key points:
- EMS design varies by community and involves decisions around staffing, vehicle types, and ambulance locations.
- National guidelines recommend response times of 5 minutes for cardiac arrests and 9 minutes for other calls.
- Operations research models can help determine optimal ambulance locations and dispatching policies to maximize coverage and patient survival based on response times. These models account for uncertainty in call priorities.
- Simulation and optimization techniques have found policies that improve coverage and better prioritize true high-priority calls
Advanced analytics for supporting public policy, bracketology, and beyond!Laura Albert
The document discusses advanced analytics applications in public policy and bracketology. It summarizes Laura Albert's background and research interests in operations research and systems engineering. She studies how mathematical models and systems thinking can help analyze complex, interconnected systems and issues. Advanced analytics turn data into useful information to make better decisions. Examples discussed include risk-based screening models for aviation security and emergency response optimization to improve response times for medical emergencies.
2015 Fuzzy Vance Lecture in Mathematics at Oberlin College: Locating and disp...Laura Albert
This document summarizes research on using operations research and optimization methods to improve emergency medical services (EMS) systems. It discusses how EMS systems work, common performance measures like response times, and approaches to optimize ambulance location and dispatching decisions. Optimization models aim to maximize coverage and survivability based on factors like call volume and priority. The research evaluates policies across different levels of information and aims to balance response to both high and low priority calls.
Screening Commercial Aviation Passengers in the Aftermath of September 11, 2001Laura Albert
Screening Commercial Aviation Passengers in the Aftermath of September 11, 2001. Slides from a presentation at the the University of Wisconsin-Madison on September 11, 2015.
Delivering emergency medical services: research, application, and outreachLaura Albert
This document discusses research on improving emergency medical services (EMS) systems through operations research techniques. It provides an overview of how EMS systems work, how their performance is measured, and ways to optimize aspects like ambulance location and dispatching policies. The research aims to balance goals like reducing response times with considerations like equitable access. Models are presented that coordinate multiple vehicle types and account for challenges in severe weather. Further research opportunities include improving patient outcomes and developing solutions for disasters and mass casualty events.
The document provides technical writing advice for graduate students. It covers avoiding common mistakes like lack of structure and clarity, using figures and tables effectively, and tips for precise and concise writing. Specific recommendations include having an introduction, body, and conclusion; using topic sentences; defining terms; consistent verb tense and structure; and active rather than passive voice.
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Belgium coach Domenico Tedesco will wait for several key players to recover from injury. Even if it means they miss the opening Euro Cup Germany stages of the European Championship in Germany this month. Veteran defender Jan Vertonghen, midfielder Youri Tielemans and defender Arthur. Theate are being given time to play in the tournament because they are considered vital to Belgium’s cause, Tedesco said on Tuesday.
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"Of course, you prefer to take players who are fully fit, but that's okay. We want to wait and be patient for some players even if they cannot play in those first matches," he told a press conference. The 37-year-old Vertonghen, Belgium’s Euro Cup 2024 most-capped international with 154 appearances, is struggling to shake off a groin injury.
"He will be there normally. This also applies to Youri Tielemans and Arthur Theate. The latter's position is very sensitive. We don't have many choices at left back. "It will only change if it turns out that they will only be available when, say, the final of the Euro 2024 Championship comes around. That's too long to wait. "However, I am confident that the injured boys are on track for the Euros.
Belgium vs Romania: Radu Dragusin Prepares for Crucial Role in Euro Cup Germany
Some of them have taken not one but two steps forward in their rehabilitation," he said. None of the injured players will feature in this week’s warm-up friendlies against Montenegro and Luxembourg. Romania centre-back Radu Dragusin found chances limited at Tottenham Hotspur in the second half of the 2023-24 season.
But is crucial to his country's cause at UEFA Euro 2024 where his aerial ability, physicality and hard graft make him a standout player. The 22-year-old moved to North London from Italian side Genoa in January but was kept on the sidelines by the form of another new arrival for the season, Mickey van de Ven, something Romania coach Edward Iordanescu admitted was a concern.
It will mean limited game-time going into the finals, but Dragusin, who cites Netherlands defender Virgil van Dijk as a role model, started every Euro Cup Germany qualifier as Romania went through the campaign unbeaten in their 10 games. He will be among their most important players in their first game in Germany against Ukraine in Munich on June 17, taking the right centre-back role in what is likely to be a back four.
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According to the report, the consumption of video content related to IPL 2024 has seen significant growth, nearly 3 times more than the previous season, reflecting an increasing interest of fans.
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However, in 2023, they played one another twice, with France endearing both matches 4-0 and 2-1 individually. Against Poland and Austria, the Netherlands also have a stout record, winning just under half the matches. They faced Austria at Euro 2020, engaging 2-0, and they haven't lost to Poland since 1979.
The lettering is on the wall for Holland to qualify for the knockouts, but nothing is failsafe. The Netherlands kickstart their Euros campaign against Poland on Sunday, June 16th. In Hamburg, they will have to go up against one of the best strikers in the world, Robert Lewandowski.
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Five days later, they travel south to face France in Leipzig, a side led by Kylian Mbappe - one of the finest players in the world currently and one of the most impressive players in his nation's history. To conclude, they face Austria in Berlin, knowing it could be the end of the road if they don't perform.
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Psaroudakis’ early life in Heraklion was deeply influenced by a supportive and nurturing family environment. His father, a former semi-professional footballer, recognized Psaroudakis’ potential from an early age. Acting as his first coach, his father’s guidance was instrumental in igniting Psaroudakis’ passion for football. This paternal influence instilled in him a strong work ethic and fundamental skills that would become the foundation of his future success. His mother, a dedicated homemaker, provided a stable and nurturing environment, ensuring that Psaroudakis could pursue his dreams without any hindrances.
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As Psaroudakis transitioned from the youth academy to professional football, the challenges became more significant.
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1. The Math Behind the
March Madness Tournament and
College Football Playoff
Laura Albert McLay
Associate Professor, ISYE
laura@engr.wisc.edu
@lauramclay
@badgerbrackets
http://bracketology.engr.wisc.edu/
2. Let’s start with the 2 minute
version of my talk
https://www.facebook.com/UWMadison/videos/10154004638653114/
3. First, of all…
I’m a industrial and systems
engineering professor by day And a bracketologist by night!
4. I study systems
A system is a set of things—people, cells, vehicles,
basketball teams, or whatever—interconnected in
such a way that they produce their own pattern of
behavior over time.
My discipline is operations research: the science of
making decisions using advanced analytical methods
5. Our world is becoming increasingly
complex and increasingly connected
Systems matter!
Mathematical models
and systems thinking
help us study systems
and navigate the
complex, interconnected
world we live in.
6. What do we hope to learn from
probability models like Markov
chains?
• How do we draw conclusions from limited data?
• How can we make data-driven decisions in the
presence of uncertainty?
7. How I got started in bracketology
In 2014 someone suggested I examine
bracketology in the context of the first
College Football Playoff…
…and so began Badger Bracketology
My objective: forecast which teams
would make the first college football
playoff before the season was over.
8. Markov chains:
The Little Engine that Could
Markov chains:
A type of math model for understanding how a
system can evolve over time.
Uses: finance, epidemiology, queues, zombies
9. Markov chains for ranking teams in a nutshell
Each team is a state. A team “votes” for teams that that it loses to
http://sumnous.github.io/blog/2014/07/24/gephi-on-mac/
Graph of 2014
college football season
10. Simple yet powerful idea
Automatically rate and ranks teams by
taking advantage of the network structure
of the match ups
• Use Markov chains to account for strength of schedule
• Do not need a human in the loop
Simple data requirements:
1. Game outcomes (score differentials),
2. Home/away status
Takes difficulty of future games into account in football playoff
forecasts
• Polls give the ranking right now, only gives insight a playoff held
today
14. Transitions
Rutgers 52 @ Wisconsin 72
Wisconsin Rutgers 1 − 𝑊
𝑊
𝑊
1 − 𝑊
How much credit should Wisconsin get for beating Rutgers by
20 at home?
𝑊 = effective wins (fraction of a vote), which help us compute
our Markov chain transition probabilities
15. Let’s find a data-driven answer!
Given that team 𝑖 beat team 𝑗 by 𝑥 points at home, what is the
probability that 𝑖 is a better team than 𝑗 on a neutral court?
Data: Some teams play twice per season (home away)
Given that team 𝑖 beat team 𝑗 by 𝑥 points at home, what is the
probability that 𝑖 is a better team than 𝑗 on 𝑗′
𝑠 home court?
𝑟𝑥
𝐻 𝑟𝑥
𝐴 = probability that a team outscores its opponent by 𝑥
points at home 𝐻 (away 𝐴) is better than its opponent on a
neutral 𝑁 site
Developed by Sokol, Kvam, Nemhauser, and Brown at Georgia Tech to rank NCAA men’s basketball teams
https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmc/
16. What is the probability you win your next
game (on the road) given that you win by 20 at
home?
17. Logistic regression to the rescue!
Problem 1: must win by 50+ points to get a lot of credit for a win!
Winning/losing close games gives you the same amount of “credit”
Margin of victory 𝑥
Probabilityofwinningontheroadnexttime
Problem 2: We need to get neutral site win probabilities
18. Logistic regression for
NCAA men’s basketball
• Use log (Point differentials) instead!
• Do not truncate point differentials
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
19. Winning matters
• Average in a pure win/loss model to give more credit for winning the
game
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
20. Putting it all together
• End up with the red line!
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
21. Markov chain transition probabilities
Rutgers 52 @ Wisconsin 72 *
Wisconsin Rutgers 1 − 𝑊
𝑊
𝑊
1 − 𝑊
How much credit should Wisconsin get for beating Rutgers by 20 at home?
P(UW beats Rutgers on a neutral court) = 0.6255
𝑊 = 0.6817 effective wins (fraction of a vote)
* Wisconsin 61 @ Rutgers 54 later on 1/28/2017
23. Current rankings
3/12/2017 Selection Sunday
1 Gonzaga
2 Villanova
3 Kentucky
4 SMU
5 Wichita St
6 Arizona
7 UCLA
8 Duke
9 Cincinnati
10 Oregon
11 MTSU
12 North Carolina
13 St Marys CA
14 West Virginia
15 Kansas
16 Nevada
17 Purdue
18 Vermont
19 UNC Wilmington
20 Michigan
21 Florida St
22 VA Commonwealth
23 Notre Dame
24 Bucknell
25 Wisconsin
24. The B1G, ranked.
3/12/2017
17 Purdue
20 Michigan
25 Wisconsin
41 Northwestern
43 Minnesota
54 Maryland
78 Indiana
87 Michigan St
121 Iowa
130 Illinois
141 Ohio St
176 Penn St
187 Rutgers
242 Nebraska
25. How did we do last year?
3/13/2016 Selection Sunday
1. North Carolina
2. Kansas
3. Villanova
4. Michigan St
5. Virginia
6. West Virginia
7. Oklahoma
8. Kentucky
9. Oregon
10. Purdue
11. Xavier
12. Miami FL
13. Duke
14. Utah
15. Texas A&M
16. Louisville
17. Maryland
18. Arizona
19. Seton Hall
20. Iowa St
21. Indiana
22. California
23. Baylor
24. St Josephs PA
25. Iowa
27. College Football Playoff
Objective: determine which teams would make the first
college football playoff.
Goal: to forecast the top 4 teams weeks before the season
ends.
Solution method: a ranking method.
Challenge: need to simulate the remainder of the season and
rank the teams at the end of the (simulated) season.
28. Giant assumption
• We assume the selection committee will pick the four
ranked teams in the playoff.
• History suggests that humans prefer the most deserving
teams rather than the best teams in the national
championship game.
• E.g., 2013 Alabama lost on
a fluke play.
• …but the College Football
Selection Committee might
have changed this!
2013 BCS Rankings just before bowl bids
30. How we did last year
2016 Playoff Rankings Badger Bracketology rankings
1 Alabama
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
3 Washington
5 Michigan
6 Penn State
7 Western Michigan
8 Louisville
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin :(
31. Model: two parts
0. Observe a few (7-8) weeks of game outcomes
1. Ranking.
• Assign a rating to each team to rank the teams.
• Similar to what we had before but with college football data
2. Game simulation.
• Determine who wins a game based on the team ratings.
Simulate the next week’s game outcomes.
• Combine these:
• Re-rate and re-rank after each week of games.
• Simulate the remainder of the season.
• Report teams most likely to be in the top 4
32. Score differentials
Yes, running up the score matters, mathematically.
Histogram of score differentials, 2012-2014
Home score - away score
Frequency
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
050100150200
33. Capped score differentials
38% of conference games fall beyond the cap
Histogram of score differentials capped at +/-21, 2012-2014
Home score - away score
Frequency
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
050100150200250
Note: Rating systems used by College Football Playoff committee must use wins/losses
only (not score differentials). Running up the score makes a difference!
34. -20 -10 0 10 20
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
Sx
H
rx
H
rx
N
Build the Markov chain for football
• Used 3 seasons of data (truncate scores by +/-21)
• Use games played in consecutive years to identify win
probabilities to feed into the Markov chain
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
logistic regression
logistic regression averaged with win (weight = 2/3)
logistic regression averaged with win (weight = 1/3)
35. Modified Log Logistic Regression
Markov Chain (ln(mLRMC))
• Same as mLRMC except that we consider log point differentials to
dampen big score differentials
• Do not truncate point differentials
-20 -10 0 10 20
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Point differential
Effectivewins
logistic regression (home team)
logistic regression averaged with win
37. Simulate the rest of the season!
0. Observe a few (7-8) weeks of game outcomes
1. Ranking.
• Assign a rating to each team to rank the teams.
2. Game simulation.
• Determine who wins a game based on the team ratings.
Simulate the next week’s game outcomes.
• Combine these:
• Re-rate and re-rank after each week of games.
• Simulate the remainder of the season.
• Report teams most likely to be in the top 4
38. Win probability parameters
The win probability between teams 𝑖 and 𝑗, where 𝑖 is the home
team is captured by the best-fit logistic regression model using
two years of game data:
𝑝𝑖𝑗 =
𝑒 𝑏+𝑎(𝑟 𝑖−𝑟 𝑗)
1 + 𝑒 𝑏+𝑎(𝑟 𝑖−𝑟 𝑗)
where
𝑟𝑖 − 𝑟𝑗 = the difference in ratings between the two teams.
and assign a point differential to the winner.
Game prediction accuracy (averaged per game)
Statistic Model Training set Test set
Mean Absolute Error mLRMC 0.2043 0.3152
ln(mLRMC) 0.2026 0.3162
Mean Squared Error mLRMC 0.1006 0.1885
ln(mLRMC) 0.0999 0.1897
43. Team Method Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
Clemson mLRMC 667 897 931 905 915 949 956
ln(mLRMC) 749 840 897 893 955 923 976
Alabama mLRMC 361 209 166 837 913 943 995
ln(mLRMC) 427 240 197 858 847 931 996
MSU mLRMC 179 213 261 54 24 569 675
ln(mLRMC) 226 349 354 115 162 573 706
Oklahoma mLRMC 20 46 71 119 393 758 1000
ln(mLRMC) 12 73 16 63 142 247 1000
2015 Results:
Forecasted number of times to make playoff
(out of 1000)
Nebraska
beats
MSU
MSU
beats
The OSU
No Big12
championship
Slight difference in
rankings:
3rd /4th vs. 5th /6th
44. 2015 Results:
Forecasted ranking of likelihood to make
playoff (any seed, out of 1000)
Team Method Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14
Clemson mLRMC 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2
ln(mLRMC) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2
Alabama mLRMC 5 7 6 2 2 2 2 1
ln(mLRMC) 4 6 8 2 1 1 2 1
MSU mLRMC 7 6 7 11 10 4 4 3
ln(mLRMC) 6 5 5 9 6 3 4 3
Oklahoma mLRMC 18 13 13 9 4 3 1 4
ln(mLRMC) 21 15 14 12 8 6 1 4
No Big12
championship
No simulation:
the season is
over. We think
the committee
got it right!
Ranked 2nd & 7th
after week 7
Ranked 5th & 4th
after week 9
45. 2015 Results:
What happened to The Ohio State University?
Rankings after week 12
Forecasted rankings after
week 12
1. Clemson 1. Clemson
2. Alabama 2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma 3. Oklahoma
4. Notre Dame 4. Michigan State
5. Michigan State 5. Iowa
6. Ohio State 6. Notre Dame
7. Iowa 7. Stanford
8. Florida 8. Florida
9. Michigan 9. Ohio State
10. Stanford
(no other teams have >1%
chance of making the playoff)
47. Picking the perfect bracket
There are about 9.2 quintillion ways to fill out a bracket…
And 1 way to fill out a perfect bracket
The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are not 9-
quintillion-to-1 because:
(a) the tournament isn’t like the lottery where every
outcome is equally likely, and
(b) monkeys are not randomly selecting game outcomes.
Instead, people are purposefully selecting outcomes.
48. Can math help our odds?
FiveThirtyEight notes that the typical bracket has a
2.5 trillion-to-1 odds of being perfect:
• https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/march-madness-
perfect-bracket-odds/
BracketOdds at Illinois estimates that a historical
average winning bracket performs at 4.4 billion-to-1
• Warren Buffet may have to pay out!
49. The thing with perfect brackets
They depend on the year.
Let’s only look at how many people correctly select all Final Four teams:
– 1140 of 13 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams in 2016
– 182,709 of 11.57 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams
in 2015 *
– 612 of 11 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams in 2014
– 47 of 8.15 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams in 2013
– 23,304 of 6.45 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams
in 2012
– 2 of 5.9 million brackets correctly picked all Final Four teams in 2011
* Only 1 bracket emerged from the round of 64 with all 32 correct picks
51. 1. Don’t use RPI
• Badger Bracketology (my favorite tool!)
• Logistic Regression Markov Chain (LRMC)
• FiveThirtyEight rankings of tournament teams
• Ken Pomoroy’s rankings
• Sagarin rankings
• Massey Ratings
• ESPN’s BPI rankings
Rankings clearinghouse: http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
52. 2. Pay attention to the seeds
Some seeds generate more upsets than others
• 7-10 seeds and 5/12 seeds
Historically, 6/11 seeds go the longest before facing a
1 or 2 seed.
53. 3. Don’t pick Kansas
• Be strategic. The point is NOT to maximize your
points, it’s to get more points than your opponents
• Differentiate your Final Four
• Check ESPN for the top picked teams. Some top teams
are overvalued and others are undervalued
• Last year:
• Kansas was selected as the overall winner in 27% of brackets
(and in 62% of Final Fours) with a 19% chance of winning (538)
• UNC selected as overall winner in 8% of brackets (with a 15%
win probability) and Villanova in 5.5%
http://games.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/
54. 4. It’s totally random
A good process yields good outcomes on average
• It does not guarantee the best outcome in any given
tournament
Small pools are better if you have a good process
• Scoring can be random
• The more brackets, the higher chance that a “random”
bracket will be the best
55. Topics in Sports Analytics
ISYE 601 in Spring 2017!
• Goal: teach students data-driven methods for making
better decisions using sports as a vehicle
• Course topics:
• Linear regression
• Logistic regression
• Empirical Bayes
• Ranking methods
• Probability models and Markov chains
• Forecasting
• Game theory
• Tournament scheduling
• Networks (is my team mathematically eliminated from the
playoffs?)
…and more!