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China Digital Economy

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Digital Transformation:
Business process re-engineering with digital technologies
Technology used to make existing work more efficient, now technology is transforming the work itself
Example: single shared item lookup process in blockchain supply chain
Productivity gains
Capital investment in technology
Data centers
Blockchain as a Service, Deep Learning nets
Skilled work force development
Train 1000 software developers
Hyperledger, Ethereum, Corda
Machine Learning, AI, Deep Learning
Scale efficiencies
Natural resources, regional strength, large companies
Manage global trade supply chain with blockchain/deep learning

Published in: Technology
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China Digital Economy

  1. 1. Zhejiang Strategic Outlook Hangzhou, June 7, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga The Future of the Digital Economy Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org 早上好
  2. 2. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 1 Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist  Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies  Philosophy Department, Purdue University, Indiana, USA  Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE invited contributor; FQXi Advisor Traditional Markets Background Economics and Financial Theory Leadership New Economies research group Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
  3. 3. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Digital Economy  Blockchain Technology  Deep Learning Algorithms  Future of the Digital Economy 2
  4. 4. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain What is the Digital Economy?  Economy based on digital computing technologies 3 Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/koshagada/2016/06/16/what-is-the-digital-economy/  Internet sector (specifically)  6% GDP  Digital computing technologies (generally)  33% GDP
  5. 5. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Digital Economy: Consumer 4 Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/koshagada/2016/06/16/what-is-the-digital-economy/  $2.9 trillion global market  Devices 37%  eCommerce 34%  Search 17%  Social Media 12%
  6. 6. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Digital Economy: Enterprise  $3.86 trillion global IT spend 2018 (Gartner)  Digital transformation: Blockchain, IoT, AI, Cloud  $1.3 trillion Digital Transformation Technologies (IDC) 5 Source: https://www.zdnet.com/article/gartner-sees-it-spending-hitting-3-7-trillion-in-2018-led-by-blockchain-ai-iot/, https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS43381817 Digital Transformation:  Business process re- engineering with digital technologies  Technology used to make existing work more efficient, now technology is transforming the work itself  Example: single shared item lookup process in blockchain supply chain
  7. 7. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Future of the Digital Economy 6 Digital InfrastructurePhysical Infrastructure Digital Networks • Natural Resources • Electricity • Data • Communications Intelligent Networks Transportation Networks • Blockchain • Deep Learning Smart Infrastructure Traditional Economy Digital Economy 1700-1970 1970-2015 2015-2050 Phase 1 Phase 2 Now IntelligenceDigitization
  8. 8. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Longer-term Economic Futures 7 Traditional Economy Digital Economy CRISPR Bioprinting Cellular Therapies Natural resources Electricity Manufacturing Atoms Bits Cells Energy Social Networks Apps Payments Now Biological Economy Space Economy Phase 1 Phase 2 IntelligenceDigitization 1700-1970 1970-2015 2015-2050 2020-2080 2025-2100 Value Mining Settlement Exploration Blockchain Deep Learning
  9. 9. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Digital Economy: Development Phases 8 Social Networks Intelligence Deep Learning Blockchain Phase 1 Phase 2 Digitization Payments Apps Digitizing existing patterns of interaction Orchestrating new ways of interacting and doing business Now
  10. 10. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain What is Intelligence? 9 Source: https://www.britannica.com/technology/artificial-intelligence  Intelligence = “whatever we can’t do yet”  Creeping frontier of Technology  Achievements are quickly forgotten Innovation Frontier
  11. 11. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Technological Unemployment  Challenge: facilitate an orderly transition to Automation Economy  Half (47%) of employment is at risk of automation in the next two decades – Carl Frey, Oxford, 2015  China leads in industrial robotics (615,000 units 2018e) 10 Source: Swan, M. (2017). Is Technological Unemployment Real? Abundance Economics. In Surviving the Machine Age: Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. Hughes & LaGrandeur, Eds. London: Palgrave Macmillan. 19-33. https://newint.org/features/2017/11/01/industrial-robots-china
  12. 12. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Routine Tasks (physical and cognitive) outsourced to Machines 11 Source: The Economist (2016) US Population Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://www.ft.com/content/1dbd8c60-0cc6-11e6-ad80-67655613c2d6
  13. 13. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Global Robotics Spending: $67 billion 2025e 12 Source: https://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/home/pictures-of-the-future/digitalization-and-software/autonomous-systems-facts- and-forecasts.html
  14. 14. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 13 Top disruptors: Deep Learning & Blockchain Source: https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/securities-services/securities-services-blockchain-a-beginners- guide/10014058.article
  15. 15. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Job Growth Skills in Demand 1. Robotics/automation/data science/deep learning 2. Blockchain/Bitcoin 14 Source: https://www.computerworld.com/article/3235972/financial-it/blockchains-explosive-growth-pushes-job- skills-demand-to-no-2-spot.html
  16. 16. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Future of the Digital Economy 15 Deep LearningBlockchain
  17. 17. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Digital Economy  Blockchain Technology  Deep Learning Algorithms  Future of the Digital Economy 16
  18. 18. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Blockchain 17 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491  To inspire us to build this world Disclaimer: no substantial cryptocurrency, ICO, or smart contract ownership or advising Free educational materials:
  19. 19. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain internet content. 18 information. email. voice. video. money.
  20. 20. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 19 Conceptual Definition: Blockchain is a software protocol; just as SMTP is a protocol for sending email, blockchain is a protocol for sending money Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 What is Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Tech?
  21. 21. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Technology: What is it? 20  Blockchain technology is the secure distributed ledger software that underlies cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin  “Internet of Money” leapfrog technology; Skype is an app allowing phone calls via Internet without POTS; Bitcoin is an app allowing money transfer via Internet without banks; ‘decentralized Paypal’ Internet (decentralized network) Blockchain Bitcoin Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 Application Layer Protocol Layer Infrastructure Layer SMTP Email VoIP Phone calls OSI Protocol Stack:
  22. 22. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain blockchain. 21 software. secure cryptographic transfer. internet.
  23. 23. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain killer apps. 22 secure transfer of value, of… money & securities. property. contracts. identity credentials.
  24. 24. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 23 public chains. private chains. trustless. mined. p2p software. trusted. not-mined. enterprise software.
  25. 25. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain sample apps. 24
  26. 26. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain When to use Blockchain Technology 25  Blockchain is enterprise software  Solid business use case  How does a decentralized solution improve over a centralized one?  Ideal use case:  Many parties in the value chain  Intensity of information and monetary exchange Use Case Example: Factom: Health insurance claims billing • Automated claims billing, validation, payment, and settlement • Multi-party value chain: patient, service provider, billing agent, insurance company, payor, government, collections adoption: hype vs. value-creation.
  27. 27. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 26 financial services. quantified risk: 2.5 yr payback (securities clearing 3-days to d-days).
  28. 28. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 27 supply chain asset tracking.  Private views and controlled-use credentials issued to multiple parties in the value chain using single shared blockchain
  29. 29. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Digital Economy  Blockchain Technology  Deep Learning Algorithms  Future of the Digital Economy 28
  30. 30. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain  Global Data Volume: 40 EB 2020e  Scientific, governmental, corporate, and personal Big Data ≠ Smart Data Source: http://www.oyster-ims.com/media/resources/dealing-information-growth-dark-data-six-practical-steps/ 29 29 Only 42% companies say they know how to extract meaningful insights from the data available to them (Oxford Economics Workforce 2020)
  31. 31. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Big Data requires Deep Learning 30  Older algorithms cannot keep up with the growth in data, need new data science methods Source: http://blog.algorithmia.com/introduction-to-deep-learning-2016
  32. 32. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Global AI-specific Spending: $36 billion 2025e 31 Source: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/artificial-intelligence-ai-market  Artificial Intelligence market analysis by Technology  Deep Learning, Machine Learning, Natural Language Processing, Machine Vision
  33. 33. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Broader Computer Science Context 32 Source: Machine Learning Guide, 9. Deep Learning  Within the Computer Science discipline, in the field of Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning is a class of Machine Learning algorithms, that are in the form of a Neural Network
  34. 34. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 33 Conceptual Definition: Deep learning is a computer program that can identify what something is Technical Definition: Deep learning is a class of machine learning algorithms in the form of a neural network that uses a cascade of layers (tiers) of processing units to extract features from data and make predictive guesses about new data Source: Swan, M., (2017)., Philosophy of Deep Learning, https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/deep-learning-explained What is Deep Learning?
  35. 35. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Deep Learning & AI  System is “dumb” (i.e. mechanical)  “Learns” with big data (lots of input examples) and trial-and-error guesses to adjust weights and bias to identify key features  Creates a predictive system to identity new examples  AI argument: big enough data is what makes a difference (“simple” algorithms run over large data sets) 34 Input: Big Data (e.g.; many examples) Method: Trial-and-error guesses to adjust node weights Output: system identifies new examples
  36. 36. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Sample task: is that a Car?  Create an image recognition system that determines which features are relevant (at increasingly higher levels of abstraction) and correctly identifies new examples 35 Source: Jann LeCun, http://www.pamitc.org/cvpr15/files/lecun-20150610-cvpr-keynote.pdf
  37. 37. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Supervised and Unsupervised Learning  Supervised (classify labeled data)  Unsupervised (find patterns in unlabeled data) 36 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/ThomasDaSilvaPaula/an-introduction-to-machine-learning-and-a-little-bit-of-deep-learning
  38. 38. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Early success in Supervised Learning (2011)  YouTube: user-classified data perfect for Supervised Learning 37 Source: Google Brain: Le, QV, Dean, Jeff, Ng, Andrew, et al. 2012. Building high-level features using large scale unsupervised learning. https://arxiv.org/abs/1112.6209
  39. 39. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Machine learning: human threshold 38 Source: Mary Meeker, Internet Trends, 2017, http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends  All apps voice-activated and conversational?
  40. 40. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 2 main kinds of Deep Learning neural nets 39 Source: Yann LeCun, CVPR 2015 keynote (Computer Vision ), "What's wrong with Deep Learning" http://t.co/nPFlPZzMEJ  Convolutional Neural Nets  Image recognition  Convolve: roll up to higher levels of abstraction in feature sets  Recurrent Neural Nets  Speech, text, audio recognition  Recur: iterate over sequential inputs with a memory function  LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) remembers sequences and avoids gradient vanishing
  41. 41. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 3 Key Technical Principles of Deep Learning 40 Reduce combinatoric dimensionality Core computational unit (input-processing-output) Levers: weights and bias Squash values into Sigmoidal S-curve -Binary values (Y/N, 0/1) -Probability values (0 to 1) -Tanh values 9(-1) to 1) Loss FunctionPerceptron StructureSigmoid Function “Dumb” system learns by adjusting parameters and checking against outcome Loss function optimizes efficiency of solution Non-linear formulation as a logistic regression problem means greater mathematical manipulation What Why
  42. 42. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain How does the neural net actually learn?  System varies the weights and biases to see if a better outcome is obtained  Repeat until the net correctly classifies the data 41 Source: http://neuralnetworksanddeeplearning.com/chap2.html  Structural system based on cascading layers of neurons with variable parameters: weight and bias
  43. 43. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Backpropagation  Problem: Inefficient to test the combinatorial explosion of all possible parameter variations  Solution: Backpropagation (1986 Nature paper)  Backpropagation of errors and gradient descent are an optimization method used to calculate the error contribution of each neuron after a batch of data is processed 42 Source: http://neuralnetworksanddeeplearning.com/chap2.html
  44. 44. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Digital Economy  Blockchain Technology  Deep Learning Algorithms  Future of the Digital Economy 43
  45. 45. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain Digital Economy: Development Phases 44 Social Networks Intelligence Deep Learning Blockchain Phase 1 Phase 2 Digitization Payments Apps Digitizing existing patterns of interaction Orchestrating new ways of interacting and doing business Now
  46. 46. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain digital economy. 45 intelligence technologies: blockchain: secure automation. deep learning: identify objects.
  47. 47. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain fleet management. 46 secure automated
  48. 48. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain scale. 47 Source: https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html Population: 7.5 bn people worldwide big health data.
  49. 49. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 48 technological unemployment. ownership in means of production. automation economy.
  50. 50. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain inclusion. 49 banking & credit. land registry. identity. electricity. vaccines & medicine. Source: https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/unicef-in-action/april-2017/photos-vaccines-reach-most-remote-places-earth Digital health wallet
  51. 51. 7 Jun 2018 Blockchain 50 Digital Economy Opportunities for China  Productivity gains  Capital investment in technology  Data centers  Blockchain as a Service, Deep Learning nets  Skilled work force development  Train 1000 software developers  Hyperledger, Ethereum, Corda  Machine Learning, AI, Deep Learning  Scale efficiencies  Natural resources, regional strength, large companies  Manage global trade supply chain with blockchain/deep learning
  52. 52. Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org 謝謝 Zhejiang Strategic Outlook Hangzhou, June 7, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga The Future of the Digital Economy

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