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NewBase Energy News 15 June 2016 - Issue No. 873 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE:Ipic seeks $6.5B from 1Malaysia Development Bhd ( 1MDB)
The National - Anthony McAuley
Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic) has filed with a London court to
arbitrate its claim against entities of the Malaysian government for US$6.5 billion.
The filing yesterday by Ipic and its subsidiary Aabar Investments involves a long-running dispute
between Ipic and strategic state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which was set up in
2009 by Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak. Four years ago, Ipic guaranteed $3.5bn of 1MDB
bonds but claims it has not received payment for the guarantee or other monies and interest
owed.
In a filing with the London Stock Exchange last month, Ipic said it had to make good on its
guarantee – the third default by 1MDB – with an interest payment of more than $52 million.
Ipic also said that it would demand 1MDB and the Malaysia’s ministry of finance, which owns the
fund, make good on an amount owed under the terms of a deal last year in which Ipic agreed to
extend additional support to 1MDB, including covering $1bn of interest payments due, in return for
commitments by Malaysia to acknowledge its liabilities and make payments.
Last month’s filing put the amount owed at just over $1.2bn plus accrued interest. The claim filed
with the London Court of International Arbitration implies the two parties have failed to reach a
negotiated settlement. The LCIA process is normally a lengthy one that can take years, followed
by a further lengthy process to recover assets, often via multiple jurisdictions, if a negotiated
settlement still cannot be reached.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oman: Natural gas consumption rises as output surges by 8.3%
Oman Observer - SAMUEL KUTTY
Consumption of natural gas by power and desalination plants added up to 1,622 million cubic
metres (MMCM) in the first quarter of the current year, posting a rise of 0.8 per cent. At the same
time, production and import of natural gas grew by 8.3 per cent to 10,206 MNCM for the first three
months, compared to 9,426 MMCM during the corresponding period last year.
According to National Centre for Statistics and
Information (NCSI) data, non-associated gas
showed a growth of 8.1 per cent at 8,459
MNCM, associated gas production surged
ahead by 9 per cent to 1,748 MMCM.
Statistics show that a major chunk of the
natural gas is consumed by mega industrial
projects and firms in the electricity and water
desalination sector. The usage of natural gas
by these firms reached 6,160 MMCM for the
first three months of 2016, against 5,692
MMCM for the same period last year.
Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as
fuel or for re-injection. This reached 2,279
MMCM in the first quarter against 1,963 MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2015. It is
expected that demand for gas will rise sharply over the coming five years.
According to Business Monitor International, the country’s gas consumption continued to increase
rapidly in 2015, posting a 6.3 per cent rise on year-on increase to 25.4bcm.
“Fuelled by the country’s rapid industrial development and growing use of gas for power
generation, Oman’s gas demand is set to grow by an annual average rate of 7.3 per cent between
2016 and 2025 to 50.6 bcm”, the global agency said.
The Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) estimates gas consumption in the
electricity and water desalination sector will rise from the current annual volume of 6.7 billion cubic
metres to 10 billion cubic metres by 2020, an almost 50 per cent increase.
At the same time, phase one of the Khazan project alone is expected to add an additional 30 per
cent to Oman’s total gas production figures. Khazan is the biggest project in Oman and expects
to hit first gas by the end of 2017.
As the project ramps up, it is forecasted to provide 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas and 25,000 barrels
of condensate per day, by 2020. BP Oman carried out 2,800 kms of seismic evaluation, which
showed around 100 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Khazan reservoir.
According to reports, the project was currently around 65 per cent complete, and that the project
would have a transformative effect on Oman’s energy sector when it came onstream.
WEG, a leading UK company, said in March last, it has developed bespoke variable speed drive
systems to help with extraction from some of Oman’s older oil fields where the natural pressure is
beginning to fade. It is expected that Oman will unlock about one trillion cubic metres of natural
gas over the next 25 years, representing a long term sustainable competitive feedstock for its
petrochemical industry.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Tunisia: DualEx Energy surrenders Bouhajla Permit
Source: Dualex Energy
DualEx Energy International has announced that it has been advised by the Tunisian Department
of Energy that any further extensions to the primary term of the Bouhajla Permit will not be
granted.
As a result, and due to there being insufficient time to conduct the required work program to move
the Permit into the next term, the Company has advised the Department that it is surrendering the
Permit, which was due to reach the end of its primary term on August 7 2016.
The Company has been seeking a joint venture partner to participate in the next stage of
exploration on the Permit, however, due to the severe downturn in the international oil and gas
exploration sector, these efforts have been unsuccessful.
The Company continues to evaluate and pursue projects in Western Canada, and will advise
shareholders when material progress has been made in this regard.
Bouhajla Block (DualEx 52.5%)
• 135,000 gross acres in the western Pelagian Basin of northeast Tunisia.
• Initial three year initial term commencing April 30, 2010 has been extended until April 29, 2014,
during which time DualEx is to record 55 km2 of 3D seismic (completed) and drill one exploration
well to test the Abiod formation in the Bouhajla North area, and record a minimum of 47 km2 of 3D
seismic in the Ktittir area.
• Primary objectives are the Cretaceous Abiod fractured chalky limestone formation, and the
shallower El Gueria limestone formation.
• Five prospects/leads have been identified to date, with drilling of the first well, BHN-1, on the
Bouhajla North prospect in Q2, 2013.
• Producing analogue at Sidi el Kilani field (produced ~48 million barrels of light oil since 1993) lies 7
km due east of the Bouhajla permit.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Indonesia rejects Exxon proposal to boost Cepu block output
Reuters
Indonesia has rejected a proposal to increase crude output from the Cepu block operated by
U.S. oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil to up to 200,000 barrels per day, the country's upstream oil
and gas regulator SKKMigas told parliament on Tuesday.
SKKMigas disagrees with Exxon's analysis of the potential for the project based on environmental
and subsurface considerations, SKKMigas chief Amien Sunaryadi said.Exxon proposed the
increase to 200,000 bpd last month noting potential in the project's reservoirs but said the decision
was in the government's hands.
Crude oil output from Exxon Mobil's Cepu block in Indonesia could reach 200,000 barrels per
day (bpd) up from 185,000 bpd at present, if the government approves an increase, a company
spokesman said on Wednesday.
Output from the Banyu Urip
project in the Cepu block in East Java
province is crucial to Indonesia's long-
term efforts to meet rising domestic oil
demand as production declines at
other ageing fields.
'From our reservoirs there is still the
potential to increase Cepu block
production above 185,000 bpd,' Exxon
Mobil spokesman Erwin Maryoto told
reporters. 'It could be up to 200,000
bpd, but (only) if the government
agrees to all the permits, including
environmental impact assessment.
We are ready to increase production.'
Crude output from Cepu more than tripled throughout 2015 from a year earlier, hitting around
130,000 bpd in December when Exxon began operations at the project's central processing
facility.
Exxon has faced a host of problems and setbacks developing Cepu, Indonesia's biggest oil and
gas find of the past decade, including a worker dispute that slashed output in August. The Banyu
Urip project is operated by Exxon in partnership with state energy company Pertamina.
Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas said the government needed to evaluate
the potential production increase from the Cepu block, because it would involve an increase in
costs. 'The current capacity of their facility is only 185,000 bpd, so if they increase it, it means they
will add capex,' said SKKMigas deputy chairman Mohammad Zikrullah.
Indonesia's average daily crude output in the first quarter climbed to 835,000 barrels per day (bpd)
from an average daily output of 786,000 bpd in 2015, largely due to increased output from Banyu
Urip.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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India: Rosneft Mimics Saudi Strategy to Get Foothold in India
Bloomberg - Stephen Bierman
Rosneft OJSC is mimicking the strategy of its biggest global competitor to expand in India as the
world’s top oil exporters vie for business in the fastest-growing crude-consuming nation. The
Russian energy giant’s plan to buy a stake in Essar Oil Ltd.’s Vadinar refinery echoes proposals
by Saudi Arabian Oil Co. to invest in India’s refining industry and secure new outlets for its crude.
“We do believe in the upside potential of the Indian market,” Rosneft First Vice President Pavel
Fedorov said last week. "There’s some chance you’ll see our progress with respect to tapping
opportunities in the Indian market mid- and short-term.”
The company has said it hopes to acquire as much as 49 percent of the 405,000-barrel-a-day
Vadinar refinery in the western state of Gujarat by the end of June. That deal would come with a
10-year contract to supply 100 million metric tons of crude to the Indian market, marking a
significant expansion in a country where Russia is currently barely present.
Officials from the two countries are due to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum
later this week.
Competition for market share around the world has increased as supply continues to swamp
demand. While Russia in recent months has overtaken Saudi Arabia in oil exports to China,
Riyadh last year took the rare step of selling crude into Moscow’s backyard of eastern Europe,
prompting Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin to accuse the Saudis of “actively dumping”
their oil.
The fight for customers only intensified with Iran’s return to the market following the end of
sanctions, while West African exporters have sent more barrels to Europe and Asia after the U.S.
shale boom trimmed their sales across the Atlantic.
Saudi Aramco has squared up to rivals, outlining plans for an expansion of refining capacity in
countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and India. The Dhahran-based company, which
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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already ships about 70 percent of its crude to Asia, has forged refinery partnerships in Japan,
South Korea and China.
‘Huge Potential’
Saudi Aramco’s joint ventures “allow it to secure demand for oil in the region that has a huge
potential," said Sushant Gupta, director for Asia Pacific refining at industry consultants Wood
Mackenzie Ltd. "Russia’s interest in such projects is also based on these fundamental drivers."
Oil demand expanded 8.3 percent in India last year, pushing the country past Japan as the world’s
third-biggest consumer, BP Plc data show. India will be the fastest-growing crude consumer in the
world through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency, adding 6 million barrels a day
of demand, compared with 4.8 million a day for China.
Russia has so far sent only minimal volumes to India: just 150,000 tons last year compared with
total exports of 242 million tons, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. That’s
less than 1 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to India in April alone.
Russia’s recent exploration and production deals with India may help further its downstream
ambitions at a time when the South Asian nation is seeking to diversify its crude supplies.
Siberia Deals
Rosneft in May sold 15 percent of the giant East Siberian Vankor project to a unit of Indian state-
owned Oil & Natural Gas Corp. India’s stake in Vankor may grow to 49.9 percent through follow-
up deals. A group of three Indian companies may also buy a 29.9 interest in Rosneft’s new East
Siberian project, Taas-Yuryakh.
"Guaranteeing a varied source of reliable supply is the key for Indian oil companies," Virendra
Chauhan, an analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd., said by e-mail. "We are seeing an
acceleration in the process of forming strategic alliances.”
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Norway: Plan Development for Oseberg Vestflanken 2 sanctioned
Source: Statoil
Norway's Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has sanctioned the Plan for Development and
Operation (PDO) of Oseberg Vestflanken 2. Reserves projected at 110 million barrels of oil
equivalent the investments are estimated at NOK 8.2 billion (2015). The Oseberg Vestflanken 2
development consists of an unmanned wellhead platform with ten well slots. In addition two
existing subsea wells will be reused. All wells will be remote-controlled from Oseberg field centre.
'Oseberg Vestflanken 2 is a pioneer project of great strategic importance,'says Torger Rød,
Statoil’s senior vice president for project management. The project is a pilot that other operators,
public authorities and the rest of Statoil’s project portfolio are already learning from.
The concept is new in Norway, but has been thoroughly tested on the Danish and Dutch
continental shelves. 'This new concept has been required to meet the high safety standards
established for installations on the Norwegian continental shelf,' Rød says.
Aiming to cut investment costs throughout the engineering phase Statoil has reduced the break-
even price of the project by about 30 percent thanks to reduced CAPEX and successful maturing
of the resource base, thus increasing volumes. This makes the project resilient, even in a low oil
price environment.
The wells at Oseberg Vestflanken 2 will be drilled by the new category J rig Askepott, which is
currently under construction. It is owned by the Oseberg licence.
'It is gratifying that the strategies established for the procurement of Oseberg’s licence rig is now
being realised through a profitable project, optimally utilising the existing infrastructure,' says
Gunnar Nakken, Statoil’s senior vice president, Operations West.
Helping extend the life of the Oseberg field the project is an important contribution to Statoil’s
ambition of sustaining production on the NCS at the current level to 2030, and beyond. Oseberg
Vestflanken 2 is the first of three planned phases for developing the remaining reserves in the
Oseberg area.
'Joint optimism among the Oseberg partners about the future of the Oseberg area is at the
bottom of this,' Nakken concludes.
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US: First new nuclear reactor in almost two decades Starts Ops
Source: Republished with permission from the Tennessee Valley Authority
The Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Watts Bar Unit 2 was connected to the power grid on
June 3, becoming the first nuclear power plant to come online since 1996, when Watts Bar Unit 1
started operations.
Watts Bar Unit 2 is undergoing final testing, producing electricity at incremental levels of power, as
TVA prepares to start commercial operation later this summer. The new reactor is designed to add
1,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity to southeastern Tennessee.
Watts Bar Unit 2 is the first nuclear plant in the United States to meet new regulations from the
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that were established after the 2011 earthquake and
tsunami that damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant in Japan.
After the NRC issued an operating license for the unit in October 2015, 193 new fuel assemblies
were loaded into the reactor vessel the following month. TVA announced at the end of May that
the reactor achieved its first sustained nuclear fission reaction.
Construction on Watts Bar Unit 2 originally began in 1973, but construction was halted in 1985
after the NRC identified weaknesses in TVA's nuclear program. In August 2007, the TVA board of
directors authorized the completion of Watts Bar Unit 2, and construction started in October 2007.
At that time, a study found Unit 2 to be effectively 60% complete with $1.7 billion invested. The
study said the plant could be finished in five years at an additional cost of $2.5 billion. However,
both the timeline and cost estimate developed in 2007 proved to be overly optimistic, as
construction was not completed until 2015, and costs ultimately totaled $4.7 billion.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the International Atomic Energy Agency's Power Reactor
Information System
Although Watts Bar 2 is the first new U.S. nuclear generator to come online in 20 years, four other
reactors are currently under construction and are expected to join the nuclear fleet within the next
four years. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Units 3 and 4 in Georgia and Virgil C. Summer
Nuclear Generating Station Units 2 and 3 in South Carolina are scheduled to become operational
in 2019–20, adding 4,540 MW of generation capacity.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Venezuela's Oil Production Tumbles as Economic Crisis Worsens
by Reuters
Hungry Venezuelans are rioting and looting amid worsening food shortages, but the OPEC
country's remote oil fields have been sheltered from the social unrest so far. But Venezuela's
blistering economic crisis is hitting them full on.
Output in the country, which has the world's largest oil reserves, dropped to 2.37 million barrels
per day (bpd) in May, according to OPEC data provided by Venezuela.
That's down some 5 percent from April and nearly 11 percent from 2015's average, data showed
on Monday, piling more stress on oil-dependent Venezuela as it wrestles with the economic crisis.
The drop could also help erode a supply glut that has weighed on prices.
Amid a cash crunch, Venezuela's oil industry is suffering from shortages of spare parts, the retreat
of oil services companies due to unpaid bills, maintenance issues, and crime, according to
workers, union leaders, and foreign executives.
Oil workers earn only a few dozen dollars a month at the black market rate due to the bolivar
currency's rapid tumble on the parallel market. Many lives now revolve around the quest for food,
fostering worker absenteeism and a brain drain.
"Workers' moods are in the dumps," said Francisco Luna, a union leader in the oil-producing area
of Lake Maracaibo. "Every day it's worse. Maintenance is lacking, equipment is lacking."
Officials at state-run oil company PDVSA did not respond to a request for comment. The company
has blamed problems on saboteurs and international smear campaigns.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Separately, Caracas is in talks with China to obtain a grace period in its oil-for-loans deal that
would improve its capacity to make bond payments amid the crisis, sources told Reuters. As
Venezuela's recession appears set to worsen, many wonder how much output could slide and
whether unrest could encroach on operations.
Energy consulting firm IPD Latin America caused waves earlier this year when it forecast that
output could slip to 2.35 million bpd this year, a figure on par with last month's output. That would
be even lower than average production in 2002 and 2003, when Venezuela was shaken by a
massive oil strike.
Even production in the Orinoco Belt, a promising swath of extra-heavy crude deposits in the
Venezuelan savannah, is down. Beyond output, Venezuela's refineries and ports have suffered
problems due to equipment failures and power cuts. And payment delays led to less diluents for
Venezuelan crudes.
Wall Street is also monitoring the lower output amid default fears, although President Nicolas
Maduro insists Venezuela will honor all debts.
"In the short term, it will negate some of the recent oil price rise and make the bond payments in
late-2016 and 2017 more difficult, though not necessarily impossi ble," said a U.S.-based fund
manager.
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NewBase 01 June 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
US oil falls to 3-week low on inventory gains, Brexit fears
Reuters + NewBase
Crude futures fell in early Asian trade on Wednesday as mounting concerns about Britain's
possible exit from the European Union and a surprise build in U.S. inventories left investors
ignoring the IEA's declaration that the oil market is now in balance.
U.S. crude fell to a three-week low of $47.55 as the contract dropped for a fifth day. It was trading
down 77 cents at $47.72 a barrel at 0215 GMT.
Brent was also down for a fifth day to hit its lowest in around two weeks. The global benchmark
was 75 cents lower at $49.08 a barrel.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.2 million
barrels in the week to June 10 to 536.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease
of 2.3 million barrels.
But the impending vote on the so-called Brexit is dominating everything from currency markets to
German Bunds, yields of which fell below zero for the first time on Tuesday after new polls
showed the leave campaign is gaining over the "In" camp.
"As demand for safe haven assets increases, commodities should remain under pressure," ANZ
said in a note. The influential Sun newspaper, long a scourge of alleged European Union excess,
also came out in support of Britain leaving the EU.
Oil price special
coverage
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If Britain voted to exit the EU, investors fear the bloc could slip into recession, which in turn could
undermine oil demand.
The oil market is now in balance thanks to unplanned outages and robust demand, particularly
from emerging economies, but this equilibrium will tilt into surplus again early next year, the
International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
But there is plenty of oil flowing into the market with Iran's exports on track to hit the highest in
almost 4-1/2 years in June, as shipments to Europe recover to near pre-sanctions level, a source
with knowledge of the country's crude lifting plans has told Reuters.
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IEA sees oil market balance in 2016, surplus to re-emerge next year
Reuters + Gulf News + NewBase
The oil market is now in balance thanks to unplanned outages and robust demand, particularly
from emerging economies, but this equilibrium will tilt into surplus again early next year, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
The agency said in its monthly report that demand growth in 2017 is likely to reach 1.3 million
barrels per day (bpd), the same level at which it estimates growth for this year, having revised up
its May 2016 forecast of 1.2 million bpd.
“Again, on the planning assumption that Opec oil production grows modestly in 2017, we expect to
see global oil stocks build slightly in the first half of 2017 before falling slightly more in the second
half of 2017. For the year as a whole, there will be a very small stock draw of 0.1 million bpd,” the
IEA said.
“At halfway in 2016, the oil market looks to be balancing; but we must not forget that there are
large volumes of shut-in production, mainly in Nigeria and Libya, that could return to the market,
and the strong start for oil demand growth seen this year might not be maintained,” the Paris-
based agency said.
Most of the anticipated demand growth this year and in 2017 is expected to come from nations
that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the agency
said.
“We must stress that this is our first look at 2017 and the huge number of moving parts will see us
amend our numbers accordingly. However... the direction of travel seems to be clear,” the IEA
said.
The IEA’s latest demand estimate for the first three months of this year shows global oil deliveries
rising by 1.6 million bpd to 95.2 million bpd, with nine out of every 10 extra barrels going to a non-
OECD economy.
On the supply side, the IEA said output fell by 590,000 bpd year-on-year to 95.4 million bpd in
May, the first major decline since the start of 2013, as spending cuts and outages reduced non-
Opec production by 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier.
Having fallen by 900,000 bpd in 2016, non-Opec supply growth is expected to rise by 200,000 bpd
in 2017, lifting output to 57 million bpd, the IEA said.
Crude output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 100,000 bpd in
May to 32.61 million bpd, after a spate of attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria offset higher
output from the Middle East. Production was still 500,000 bpd higher than in May last year,
however.
“Iran has clearly emerged as Opec’s fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated
annual gain of nearly 700,000 bpd,” the IEA said.
“The only other substantial increase from Opec in 2017 could be from Nigeria, should security
issues in the Niger Delta be resolved.”
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 01 June 2016
Cheap gas, coal will not hobble investment in renewable energy,
says report .. Oman Observer + AFP + NewBase
Weak coal and gas prices will not stop record investment in renewables over the coming decades
as the cost of generating clean energy drops, a key energy report said on Monday. Renewables
are set to attract $7.8 trillion (6.9 trillion euros) by 2040, nearly four times as much as carbon-
based power over the same period, the New Energy Outlook 2016 forecast said.
The impact of cheap gas and coal will be offset, it projected, by drops of 41 and 60 per cent,
respectively, in the price of power from wind and solar panels. Some analysts, however,
questioned wither renewables could expand that quickly.
Compared to a year ago, the report projects “significantly lower” coal and gas prices, said Jon
Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the research unit which conducted the
study.
“But, strikingly, (the report) still shows rapid transition towards clean power.”
Nonetheless, the shift to a low-carbon energy sector will not happen quickly enough to keep global
warming below two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), much less the more ambitious goal
embraced by the world’s nations last December, the analysts warned. The Paris Agreement calls
for capping Earth’s average surface temperature at “well below” 2.0C to stave off severe climate
impacts.
To achieve even the two-degree target, additional investment of $5.3 trillion in zero-carbon power
— on top of the projected $7.8 trillion — would be needed by 2040, the report concludes.
The energy sector accounts for two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions that drive global
warming. Currently, 80 per cent of global energy consumption is drawn from fossil fuels.
From a climate change perspective, the annual report is a “good news/bad news” compendium of
energy trends.
The encouraging surge in renewables — which today account for only a small slice of energy
consumed — is balanced by the fact that fossil fuel power will still pull in more than $2.1 trillion
(1.9 trillion euros) in investments by 2040, mainly in emerging economies.
China’s slowing economy and retreat from coal means that CO2 emissions from the world’s top
carbon polluter may peak as early as 2025, five years earlier than Beijing promised.
At the same time, however, energy demands in India — which, despite a big push towards solar,
continues to rely heavily on dirty coal — are forecast to nearly quadruple in the next quarter
century.
“That makes India the key to the future global emissions trend,” the authors said in a statement. In
Europe, renewables will dominate, generating 70 per cent of the continent’s power by 2040, up
from 32 per cent in 2015.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
In the US, the share of wind, solar, hydro and other zero-carbon energy sources will jump from 14
per cent last year to 44 per cent in 2040. At the same time, natural gas’ slice of the energy pie will
slip from 33 to 31 per cent, despite a boom in fracking.
A surge in electric cars will add some eight per cent to global electricity demand, the report
forecast. By 2040, 35 per cent of light-duty vehicles sold in the world will be electric, some 41
million cars in all.
David McCollum, an energy expert at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
challenged the report’s “aggressive assumptions” on the growth of green energy.
“Considering the low coal and gas prices it assumes, I’m surprised by the large quantity of
renewable electricity the New Energy Outlook 2016 report sees entering the mix by 2040,” he
commented by email.
In a scientific analysis of how low or high oil prices could affect energy markets and carbon
emissions, published on Monday in Nature Energy, McCollum found that cheap fossil fuel was
more likely to stymie green technologies.
For renewables “to out-compete cheap coal is not a result we generally saw in our scenario runs,”
said McCollum, lead author of the study. Z A / C O N T R I B U T O R
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 15 June 2016 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18

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New base energy news issue 873 dated 15 june 2016

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 15 June 2016 - Issue No. 873 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE:Ipic seeks $6.5B from 1Malaysia Development Bhd ( 1MDB) The National - Anthony McAuley Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic) has filed with a London court to arbitrate its claim against entities of the Malaysian government for US$6.5 billion. The filing yesterday by Ipic and its subsidiary Aabar Investments involves a long-running dispute between Ipic and strategic state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which was set up in 2009 by Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak. Four years ago, Ipic guaranteed $3.5bn of 1MDB bonds but claims it has not received payment for the guarantee or other monies and interest owed. In a filing with the London Stock Exchange last month, Ipic said it had to make good on its guarantee – the third default by 1MDB – with an interest payment of more than $52 million. Ipic also said that it would demand 1MDB and the Malaysia’s ministry of finance, which owns the fund, make good on an amount owed under the terms of a deal last year in which Ipic agreed to extend additional support to 1MDB, including covering $1bn of interest payments due, in return for commitments by Malaysia to acknowledge its liabilities and make payments. Last month’s filing put the amount owed at just over $1.2bn plus accrued interest. The claim filed with the London Court of International Arbitration implies the two parties have failed to reach a negotiated settlement. The LCIA process is normally a lengthy one that can take years, followed by a further lengthy process to recover assets, often via multiple jurisdictions, if a negotiated settlement still cannot be reached.
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Oman: Natural gas consumption rises as output surges by 8.3% Oman Observer - SAMUEL KUTTY Consumption of natural gas by power and desalination plants added up to 1,622 million cubic metres (MMCM) in the first quarter of the current year, posting a rise of 0.8 per cent. At the same time, production and import of natural gas grew by 8.3 per cent to 10,206 MNCM for the first three months, compared to 9,426 MMCM during the corresponding period last year. According to National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI) data, non-associated gas showed a growth of 8.1 per cent at 8,459 MNCM, associated gas production surged ahead by 9 per cent to 1,748 MMCM. Statistics show that a major chunk of the natural gas is consumed by mega industrial projects and firms in the electricity and water desalination sector. The usage of natural gas by these firms reached 6,160 MMCM for the first three months of 2016, against 5,692 MMCM for the same period last year. Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. This reached 2,279 MMCM in the first quarter against 1,963 MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2015. It is expected that demand for gas will rise sharply over the coming five years. According to Business Monitor International, the country’s gas consumption continued to increase rapidly in 2015, posting a 6.3 per cent rise on year-on increase to 25.4bcm. “Fuelled by the country’s rapid industrial development and growing use of gas for power generation, Oman’s gas demand is set to grow by an annual average rate of 7.3 per cent between 2016 and 2025 to 50.6 bcm”, the global agency said. The Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) estimates gas consumption in the electricity and water desalination sector will rise from the current annual volume of 6.7 billion cubic metres to 10 billion cubic metres by 2020, an almost 50 per cent increase. At the same time, phase one of the Khazan project alone is expected to add an additional 30 per cent to Oman’s total gas production figures. Khazan is the biggest project in Oman and expects to hit first gas by the end of 2017. As the project ramps up, it is forecasted to provide 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas and 25,000 barrels of condensate per day, by 2020. BP Oman carried out 2,800 kms of seismic evaluation, which showed around 100 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Khazan reservoir. According to reports, the project was currently around 65 per cent complete, and that the project would have a transformative effect on Oman’s energy sector when it came onstream. WEG, a leading UK company, said in March last, it has developed bespoke variable speed drive systems to help with extraction from some of Oman’s older oil fields where the natural pressure is beginning to fade. It is expected that Oman will unlock about one trillion cubic metres of natural gas over the next 25 years, representing a long term sustainable competitive feedstock for its petrochemical industry.
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Tunisia: DualEx Energy surrenders Bouhajla Permit Source: Dualex Energy DualEx Energy International has announced that it has been advised by the Tunisian Department of Energy that any further extensions to the primary term of the Bouhajla Permit will not be granted. As a result, and due to there being insufficient time to conduct the required work program to move the Permit into the next term, the Company has advised the Department that it is surrendering the Permit, which was due to reach the end of its primary term on August 7 2016. The Company has been seeking a joint venture partner to participate in the next stage of exploration on the Permit, however, due to the severe downturn in the international oil and gas exploration sector, these efforts have been unsuccessful. The Company continues to evaluate and pursue projects in Western Canada, and will advise shareholders when material progress has been made in this regard. Bouhajla Block (DualEx 52.5%) • 135,000 gross acres in the western Pelagian Basin of northeast Tunisia. • Initial three year initial term commencing April 30, 2010 has been extended until April 29, 2014, during which time DualEx is to record 55 km2 of 3D seismic (completed) and drill one exploration well to test the Abiod formation in the Bouhajla North area, and record a minimum of 47 km2 of 3D seismic in the Ktittir area. • Primary objectives are the Cretaceous Abiod fractured chalky limestone formation, and the shallower El Gueria limestone formation. • Five prospects/leads have been identified to date, with drilling of the first well, BHN-1, on the Bouhajla North prospect in Q2, 2013. • Producing analogue at Sidi el Kilani field (produced ~48 million barrels of light oil since 1993) lies 7 km due east of the Bouhajla permit.
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Indonesia rejects Exxon proposal to boost Cepu block output Reuters Indonesia has rejected a proposal to increase crude output from the Cepu block operated by U.S. oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil to up to 200,000 barrels per day, the country's upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas told parliament on Tuesday. SKKMigas disagrees with Exxon's analysis of the potential for the project based on environmental and subsurface considerations, SKKMigas chief Amien Sunaryadi said.Exxon proposed the increase to 200,000 bpd last month noting potential in the project's reservoirs but said the decision was in the government's hands. Crude oil output from Exxon Mobil's Cepu block in Indonesia could reach 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) up from 185,000 bpd at present, if the government approves an increase, a company spokesman said on Wednesday. Output from the Banyu Urip project in the Cepu block in East Java province is crucial to Indonesia's long- term efforts to meet rising domestic oil demand as production declines at other ageing fields. 'From our reservoirs there is still the potential to increase Cepu block production above 185,000 bpd,' Exxon Mobil spokesman Erwin Maryoto told reporters. 'It could be up to 200,000 bpd, but (only) if the government agrees to all the permits, including environmental impact assessment. We are ready to increase production.' Crude output from Cepu more than tripled throughout 2015 from a year earlier, hitting around 130,000 bpd in December when Exxon began operations at the project's central processing facility. Exxon has faced a host of problems and setbacks developing Cepu, Indonesia's biggest oil and gas find of the past decade, including a worker dispute that slashed output in August. The Banyu Urip project is operated by Exxon in partnership with state energy company Pertamina. Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas said the government needed to evaluate the potential production increase from the Cepu block, because it would involve an increase in costs. 'The current capacity of their facility is only 185,000 bpd, so if they increase it, it means they will add capex,' said SKKMigas deputy chairman Mohammad Zikrullah. Indonesia's average daily crude output in the first quarter climbed to 835,000 barrels per day (bpd) from an average daily output of 786,000 bpd in 2015, largely due to increased output from Banyu Urip.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 India: Rosneft Mimics Saudi Strategy to Get Foothold in India Bloomberg - Stephen Bierman Rosneft OJSC is mimicking the strategy of its biggest global competitor to expand in India as the world’s top oil exporters vie for business in the fastest-growing crude-consuming nation. The Russian energy giant’s plan to buy a stake in Essar Oil Ltd.’s Vadinar refinery echoes proposals by Saudi Arabian Oil Co. to invest in India’s refining industry and secure new outlets for its crude. “We do believe in the upside potential of the Indian market,” Rosneft First Vice President Pavel Fedorov said last week. "There’s some chance you’ll see our progress with respect to tapping opportunities in the Indian market mid- and short-term.” The company has said it hopes to acquire as much as 49 percent of the 405,000-barrel-a-day Vadinar refinery in the western state of Gujarat by the end of June. That deal would come with a 10-year contract to supply 100 million metric tons of crude to the Indian market, marking a significant expansion in a country where Russia is currently barely present. Officials from the two countries are due to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum later this week. Competition for market share around the world has increased as supply continues to swamp demand. While Russia in recent months has overtaken Saudi Arabia in oil exports to China, Riyadh last year took the rare step of selling crude into Moscow’s backyard of eastern Europe, prompting Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin to accuse the Saudis of “actively dumping” their oil. The fight for customers only intensified with Iran’s return to the market following the end of sanctions, while West African exporters have sent more barrels to Europe and Asia after the U.S. shale boom trimmed their sales across the Atlantic. Saudi Aramco has squared up to rivals, outlining plans for an expansion of refining capacity in countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and India. The Dhahran-based company, which
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 already ships about 70 percent of its crude to Asia, has forged refinery partnerships in Japan, South Korea and China. ‘Huge Potential’ Saudi Aramco’s joint ventures “allow it to secure demand for oil in the region that has a huge potential," said Sushant Gupta, director for Asia Pacific refining at industry consultants Wood Mackenzie Ltd. "Russia’s interest in such projects is also based on these fundamental drivers." Oil demand expanded 8.3 percent in India last year, pushing the country past Japan as the world’s third-biggest consumer, BP Plc data show. India will be the fastest-growing crude consumer in the world through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency, adding 6 million barrels a day of demand, compared with 4.8 million a day for China. Russia has so far sent only minimal volumes to India: just 150,000 tons last year compared with total exports of 242 million tons, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. That’s less than 1 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to India in April alone. Russia’s recent exploration and production deals with India may help further its downstream ambitions at a time when the South Asian nation is seeking to diversify its crude supplies. Siberia Deals Rosneft in May sold 15 percent of the giant East Siberian Vankor project to a unit of Indian state- owned Oil & Natural Gas Corp. India’s stake in Vankor may grow to 49.9 percent through follow- up deals. A group of three Indian companies may also buy a 29.9 interest in Rosneft’s new East Siberian project, Taas-Yuryakh. "Guaranteeing a varied source of reliable supply is the key for Indian oil companies," Virendra Chauhan, an analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd., said by e-mail. "We are seeing an acceleration in the process of forming strategic alliances.”
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Norway: Plan Development for Oseberg Vestflanken 2 sanctioned Source: Statoil Norway's Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has sanctioned the Plan for Development and Operation (PDO) of Oseberg Vestflanken 2. Reserves projected at 110 million barrels of oil equivalent the investments are estimated at NOK 8.2 billion (2015). The Oseberg Vestflanken 2 development consists of an unmanned wellhead platform with ten well slots. In addition two existing subsea wells will be reused. All wells will be remote-controlled from Oseberg field centre. 'Oseberg Vestflanken 2 is a pioneer project of great strategic importance,'says Torger Rød, Statoil’s senior vice president for project management. The project is a pilot that other operators, public authorities and the rest of Statoil’s project portfolio are already learning from. The concept is new in Norway, but has been thoroughly tested on the Danish and Dutch continental shelves. 'This new concept has been required to meet the high safety standards established for installations on the Norwegian continental shelf,' Rød says. Aiming to cut investment costs throughout the engineering phase Statoil has reduced the break- even price of the project by about 30 percent thanks to reduced CAPEX and successful maturing of the resource base, thus increasing volumes. This makes the project resilient, even in a low oil price environment. The wells at Oseberg Vestflanken 2 will be drilled by the new category J rig Askepott, which is currently under construction. It is owned by the Oseberg licence. 'It is gratifying that the strategies established for the procurement of Oseberg’s licence rig is now being realised through a profitable project, optimally utilising the existing infrastructure,' says Gunnar Nakken, Statoil’s senior vice president, Operations West. Helping extend the life of the Oseberg field the project is an important contribution to Statoil’s ambition of sustaining production on the NCS at the current level to 2030, and beyond. Oseberg Vestflanken 2 is the first of three planned phases for developing the remaining reserves in the Oseberg area. 'Joint optimism among the Oseberg partners about the future of the Oseberg area is at the bottom of this,' Nakken concludes.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 US: First new nuclear reactor in almost two decades Starts Ops Source: Republished with permission from the Tennessee Valley Authority The Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Watts Bar Unit 2 was connected to the power grid on June 3, becoming the first nuclear power plant to come online since 1996, when Watts Bar Unit 1 started operations. Watts Bar Unit 2 is undergoing final testing, producing electricity at incremental levels of power, as TVA prepares to start commercial operation later this summer. The new reactor is designed to add 1,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity to southeastern Tennessee. Watts Bar Unit 2 is the first nuclear plant in the United States to meet new regulations from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that were established after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that damaged the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant in Japan. After the NRC issued an operating license for the unit in October 2015, 193 new fuel assemblies were loaded into the reactor vessel the following month. TVA announced at the end of May that the reactor achieved its first sustained nuclear fission reaction. Construction on Watts Bar Unit 2 originally began in 1973, but construction was halted in 1985 after the NRC identified weaknesses in TVA's nuclear program. In August 2007, the TVA board of directors authorized the completion of Watts Bar Unit 2, and construction started in October 2007. At that time, a study found Unit 2 to be effectively 60% complete with $1.7 billion invested. The study said the plant could be finished in five years at an additional cost of $2.5 billion. However, both the timeline and cost estimate developed in 2007 proved to be overly optimistic, as construction was not completed until 2015, and costs ultimately totaled $4.7 billion.
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the International Atomic Energy Agency's Power Reactor Information System Although Watts Bar 2 is the first new U.S. nuclear generator to come online in 20 years, four other reactors are currently under construction and are expected to join the nuclear fleet within the next four years. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Units 3 and 4 in Georgia and Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station Units 2 and 3 in South Carolina are scheduled to become operational in 2019–20, adding 4,540 MW of generation capacity.
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Venezuela's Oil Production Tumbles as Economic Crisis Worsens by Reuters Hungry Venezuelans are rioting and looting amid worsening food shortages, but the OPEC country's remote oil fields have been sheltered from the social unrest so far. But Venezuela's blistering economic crisis is hitting them full on. Output in the country, which has the world's largest oil reserves, dropped to 2.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, according to OPEC data provided by Venezuela. That's down some 5 percent from April and nearly 11 percent from 2015's average, data showed on Monday, piling more stress on oil-dependent Venezuela as it wrestles with the economic crisis. The drop could also help erode a supply glut that has weighed on prices. Amid a cash crunch, Venezuela's oil industry is suffering from shortages of spare parts, the retreat of oil services companies due to unpaid bills, maintenance issues, and crime, according to workers, union leaders, and foreign executives. Oil workers earn only a few dozen dollars a month at the black market rate due to the bolivar currency's rapid tumble on the parallel market. Many lives now revolve around the quest for food, fostering worker absenteeism and a brain drain. "Workers' moods are in the dumps," said Francisco Luna, a union leader in the oil-producing area of Lake Maracaibo. "Every day it's worse. Maintenance is lacking, equipment is lacking." Officials at state-run oil company PDVSA did not respond to a request for comment. The company has blamed problems on saboteurs and international smear campaigns.
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Separately, Caracas is in talks with China to obtain a grace period in its oil-for-loans deal that would improve its capacity to make bond payments amid the crisis, sources told Reuters. As Venezuela's recession appears set to worsen, many wonder how much output could slide and whether unrest could encroach on operations. Energy consulting firm IPD Latin America caused waves earlier this year when it forecast that output could slip to 2.35 million bpd this year, a figure on par with last month's output. That would be even lower than average production in 2002 and 2003, when Venezuela was shaken by a massive oil strike. Even production in the Orinoco Belt, a promising swath of extra-heavy crude deposits in the Venezuelan savannah, is down. Beyond output, Venezuela's refineries and ports have suffered problems due to equipment failures and power cuts. And payment delays led to less diluents for Venezuelan crudes. Wall Street is also monitoring the lower output amid default fears, although President Nicolas Maduro insists Venezuela will honor all debts. "In the short term, it will negate some of the recent oil price rise and make the bond payments in late-2016 and 2017 more difficult, though not necessarily impossi ble," said a U.S.-based fund manager.
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 NewBase 01 June 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE US oil falls to 3-week low on inventory gains, Brexit fears Reuters + NewBase Crude futures fell in early Asian trade on Wednesday as mounting concerns about Britain's possible exit from the European Union and a surprise build in U.S. inventories left investors ignoring the IEA's declaration that the oil market is now in balance. U.S. crude fell to a three-week low of $47.55 as the contract dropped for a fifth day. It was trading down 77 cents at $47.72 a barrel at 0215 GMT. Brent was also down for a fifth day to hit its lowest in around two weeks. The global benchmark was 75 cents lower at $49.08 a barrel. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week to June 10 to 536.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. But the impending vote on the so-called Brexit is dominating everything from currency markets to German Bunds, yields of which fell below zero for the first time on Tuesday after new polls showed the leave campaign is gaining over the "In" camp. "As demand for safe haven assets increases, commodities should remain under pressure," ANZ said in a note. The influential Sun newspaper, long a scourge of alleged European Union excess, also came out in support of Britain leaving the EU. Oil price special coverage
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 If Britain voted to exit the EU, investors fear the bloc could slip into recession, which in turn could undermine oil demand. The oil market is now in balance thanks to unplanned outages and robust demand, particularly from emerging economies, but this equilibrium will tilt into surplus again early next year, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. But there is plenty of oil flowing into the market with Iran's exports on track to hit the highest in almost 4-1/2 years in June, as shipments to Europe recover to near pre-sanctions level, a source with knowledge of the country's crude lifting plans has told Reuters.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 IEA sees oil market balance in 2016, surplus to re-emerge next year Reuters + Gulf News + NewBase The oil market is now in balance thanks to unplanned outages and robust demand, particularly from emerging economies, but this equilibrium will tilt into surplus again early next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. The agency said in its monthly report that demand growth in 2017 is likely to reach 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), the same level at which it estimates growth for this year, having revised up its May 2016 forecast of 1.2 million bpd. “Again, on the planning assumption that Opec oil production grows modestly in 2017, we expect to see global oil stocks build slightly in the first half of 2017 before falling slightly more in the second half of 2017. For the year as a whole, there will be a very small stock draw of 0.1 million bpd,” the IEA said. “At halfway in 2016, the oil market looks to be balancing; but we must not forget that there are large volumes of shut-in production, mainly in Nigeria and Libya, that could return to the market, and the strong start for oil demand growth seen this year might not be maintained,” the Paris- based agency said. Most of the anticipated demand growth this year and in 2017 is expected to come from nations that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the agency said. “We must stress that this is our first look at 2017 and the huge number of moving parts will see us amend our numbers accordingly. However... the direction of travel seems to be clear,” the IEA said. The IEA’s latest demand estimate for the first three months of this year shows global oil deliveries rising by 1.6 million bpd to 95.2 million bpd, with nine out of every 10 extra barrels going to a non- OECD economy. On the supply side, the IEA said output fell by 590,000 bpd year-on-year to 95.4 million bpd in May, the first major decline since the start of 2013, as spending cuts and outages reduced non- Opec production by 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier. Having fallen by 900,000 bpd in 2016, non-Opec supply growth is expected to rise by 200,000 bpd in 2017, lifting output to 57 million bpd, the IEA said. Crude output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 100,000 bpd in May to 32.61 million bpd, after a spate of attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria offset higher output from the Middle East. Production was still 500,000 bpd higher than in May last year, however. “Iran has clearly emerged as Opec’s fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated annual gain of nearly 700,000 bpd,” the IEA said. “The only other substantial increase from Opec in 2017 could be from Nigeria, should security issues in the Niger Delta be resolved.”
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 01 June 2016 Cheap gas, coal will not hobble investment in renewable energy, says report .. Oman Observer + AFP + NewBase Weak coal and gas prices will not stop record investment in renewables over the coming decades as the cost of generating clean energy drops, a key energy report said on Monday. Renewables are set to attract $7.8 trillion (6.9 trillion euros) by 2040, nearly four times as much as carbon- based power over the same period, the New Energy Outlook 2016 forecast said. The impact of cheap gas and coal will be offset, it projected, by drops of 41 and 60 per cent, respectively, in the price of power from wind and solar panels. Some analysts, however, questioned wither renewables could expand that quickly. Compared to a year ago, the report projects “significantly lower” coal and gas prices, said Jon Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the research unit which conducted the study. “But, strikingly, (the report) still shows rapid transition towards clean power.” Nonetheless, the shift to a low-carbon energy sector will not happen quickly enough to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), much less the more ambitious goal embraced by the world’s nations last December, the analysts warned. The Paris Agreement calls for capping Earth’s average surface temperature at “well below” 2.0C to stave off severe climate impacts. To achieve even the two-degree target, additional investment of $5.3 trillion in zero-carbon power — on top of the projected $7.8 trillion — would be needed by 2040, the report concludes. The energy sector accounts for two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming. Currently, 80 per cent of global energy consumption is drawn from fossil fuels. From a climate change perspective, the annual report is a “good news/bad news” compendium of energy trends. The encouraging surge in renewables — which today account for only a small slice of energy consumed — is balanced by the fact that fossil fuel power will still pull in more than $2.1 trillion (1.9 trillion euros) in investments by 2040, mainly in emerging economies. China’s slowing economy and retreat from coal means that CO2 emissions from the world’s top carbon polluter may peak as early as 2025, five years earlier than Beijing promised. At the same time, however, energy demands in India — which, despite a big push towards solar, continues to rely heavily on dirty coal — are forecast to nearly quadruple in the next quarter century. “That makes India the key to the future global emissions trend,” the authors said in a statement. In Europe, renewables will dominate, generating 70 per cent of the continent’s power by 2040, up from 32 per cent in 2015.
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 In the US, the share of wind, solar, hydro and other zero-carbon energy sources will jump from 14 per cent last year to 44 per cent in 2040. At the same time, natural gas’ slice of the energy pie will slip from 33 to 31 per cent, despite a boom in fracking. A surge in electric cars will add some eight per cent to global electricity demand, the report forecast. By 2040, 35 per cent of light-duty vehicles sold in the world will be electric, some 41 million cars in all. David McCollum, an energy expert at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, challenged the report’s “aggressive assumptions” on the growth of green energy. “Considering the low coal and gas prices it assumes, I’m surprised by the large quantity of renewable electricity the New Energy Outlook 2016 report sees entering the mix by 2040,” he commented by email. In a scientific analysis of how low or high oil prices could affect energy markets and carbon emissions, published on Monday in Nature Energy, McCollum found that cheap fossil fuel was more likely to stymie green technologies. For renewables “to out-compete cheap coal is not a result we generally saw in our scenario runs,” said McCollum, lead author of the study. Z A / C O N T R I B U T O R
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 15 June 2016 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18