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NewBase Energy News 03 April 2018 - Issue No. 1155 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Bahrain’s Biggest Oil Find Since 1932 Dwarfs Reserves
Bloomberg + Gulf News + Bloomberg
Bahrain, the smallest energy producer in the Persian Gulf, discovered its biggest oil field since it
started producing crude in 1932, according to the country’s official news agency.
The shale oil and natural gas discovered in a deposit off the island state’s west coast “is
understood to dwarf Bahrain’s current reserves,” Bahrain News Agency reported, without giving
figures.
The country currently pumps about 45,000 barrels of oil a day from its Bahrain Field, and it shares
income from a deposit with Saudi Arabia that produces about 300,000 barrels a day, according to
figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Bahrain discovered the offshore Khaleej Al Bahrain Basin as it seeks to expand output capacity at
its wholly owned Bahrain Field to 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the decade. The island
kingdom is now bound by the global agreement among major oil producers to limit production to
reduce global inventories.
“Initial analysis demonstrates the find is at substantial levels, capable of supporting the long-term
extraction of tight oil and deep gas,” Bahrain Oil Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa
said in the BNA report.
Consultants DeGolyer & MacNaughton Corp. evaluated the field, and Bahrain plans to provide
additional details on Wednesday about the reservoir’s “size and extraction viability,” according to
BNA.
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Bahrain last week reined in plans to sell bonds as investors sought higher yields. After indicating it
could sell a mix of conventional and Islamic debt with as many as three different maturities, it only
offered 7.5-year sukuk, raising $1 billion on March 28.
Breaks new ground
The government confirmed that modelling and analytical studies are ongoing, led by Bahrain’s
National Oil and Gas Authority (NOGA) working alongside private sector partners, aimed at detailing
the ultimate quantity and market value of the find.
A DeGolyer and MacNaughton spokesperson said that “Demac evaluated the reservoir and test data,
evaluated volumetric and recovery potential, and provided reports documenting both Prospective and
Contingent Resources.”
“This is a project which breaks new ground for the industry,” the spokesperson said.
The discovery, expected to support extensive, long-term downstream activities, follows a recent uplift
in oil and gas exploration projects undertaken in response to directives from King Hamad to the Higher
Committee for Natural Resources and Economic Security to increase exploration activities.
Last year the Committee took the decision to accelerate initiatives to explore sites to the west of
Bahrain, which resulted in the discovery of the resource and oil being struck in the fourth quarter of
2017.
Additional details on the discovery, including initial findings of size and extraction viability, will be
provided by the oil ministry at a press conference on Wednesday.
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Economy to grow 3.7% in 2018
Bahrain, the smallest economy in the GCC, will register an uptick in real GDP growth to about 3.7
per cent this year, as rising oil prices lower the government’s urgency to consolidate fiscal
accounts, BMI noted in a report.
On Sunday the island kingdom, which lies offshore Saudi Arabia, announced its biggest
hydrocarbons discovery in more than eight decades, which is expected to outsize existing
reserves. The potential recovery of oil and gas from the tight reserves off its west coast will come
as much-needed relief to Bahrain, which has been saddled with rising public debt, which ratings
agency S&P estimated at 81 per cent of GDP in 2017.
Bahrain’s economy has slowed in the wake of the three-year slump of oil prices. The country
already had one of the highest break-even prices for oil in the region. The slowdown in the
economy prompted the three big ratings agencies to rate Bahrain to below investment grade on
the back of a widening deficit.
However, BMI, a Fitch company, has revised up its forecast for Bahrain’s growth to 3.4 per cent
for 2019 from 2.9 per cent, following the recent recovery in oil prices, which is expected to boost
the kingdom’s fiscal revenues.
BMI’s latest revisions are higher than those projected for the medium term by the country’s own state
investment agency, the Bahrain Economic Development Board. In December, the EDB said it expected
growth to remain at about 3 per cent in the medium term, with the economy expected to have performed
around 3.1 per cent over the previous year.
In its latest note BMI said Bahrain's economic growth would moderate from 2020 to about 3 per cent as oil
prices stabilised. The agency has suggested declining production as one of the causes for growth to taper.
However, the recent discovery of reserves may bode differently for the country’s growth.
Bahrain, which has yet to implement VAT, unlike GCC peers the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has been
projected by BMI to begin implementation of the measure from the beginning of next year, offsetting some
growth. The delay, however will help Bahrain avoid inflationary pressures.
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UAE's Ras Al Khaimah launches petroleum licensing round
Source: Reuters
The government of the United Arab Emirates’ Ras Al Khaimah launched its first petroleum
licensing round on Monday. The licensing round offers seven areas, including four shallow water
offshore blocks and three onshore blocks, covering almost the entire emirate, the Ras Al Khaimah
(RAK) government said in a statement.
Ras Al Khaimah Offshore and Onshore Acreage are currently unlicensed. Building on legacy work
and studies, RAK Gas reviewed the offshore and onshore subsurface potential, using Play Based
Exploration (PBE), to build a rejuvenated Exploration Portfolio. RAK Gas has committed to
organise a License Round for its entire offshore and onshore concessions in 2018, to allow
companies bid for acreage.
The following blocks are on offer:
• Block 1: Rak B Undeveloped Oil
and Gas discovery. Cretaceous
'Arabian Platform' leads, related
to extensional setting. Possible
deeper potential (Jurassic).
• Block 2: Saleh Field discovered
in 1964. Gas Production from
Cretaceous “Arabian Platform”
(1984 to 2016). Cretaceous
leads, related to extensional
setting. Possible deeper potential
(Jurassic).
• Block 3: Cretaceous Arabian
Platform leads, related to
extensional setting. Possible
deeper potential (Jurassic).
• Block 4: Cretaceous Arabian
Platform leads, related to
extensional setting. Possible
shallower potential related to
Miocene Carbonates (Asmari
Formation).
• Block 5: Onshore 'thrust front' large compressive structures extending in the offshore transition
zone. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform' and Tertiary Potential.
• Block 6: Onshore 'thrust front' large compressive structures. extending in the offshore transition
zone. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform', Jurassic and Permo-Triassic potential.
• Block 7: Onshore potential related to compressive structures. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform,
Jurassic and Permo-Triassic potential.
Data Rooms will be open in Ras Al Khaimah and London.
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Saudi Aramco selects Jacobs for Zuluf field development program
Source: Jacobs
Saudi Aramco has awarded Jacobs Engineering Group a contract to provide engineering and
project management services for the Zuluf Field Development Program's Arab Heavy (AH) Crude
Oil Increment 600 MBCD - Onshore Central Processing Facilities (CPF) project, which will provide
facilities to process 600,000 barrels of oil per day of Arabian heavy crude oil from the Zuluf
offshore field in the Arabian Gulf.
This contract is among several oil and gas major project agreements that Saudi Aramco signed in
November 2017 to enhance the company's energy sustainability, diversify the economy, expand
gas production and localize domestic content.
Jacobs' scope of work includes the onshore central processing facilities which will contain a new
gas/oil separation plant (GOSP), gas compression facilities, a new water injection plant and
pipelines.
The stabilized crude oil from the GOSP will be transported to the Ju'aymah terminal via new
downstream pipelines. The separated gas and condensate streams will be transported to the
proposed Tanajib Gas Plant via new pipelines.
'This landmark contract reaffirms
our strong relationship with Saudi
Aramco and our long-standing
position in the Middle East,' said
Jacobs Petroleum and Chemicals
President Vinayak Pai. 'The Zuluf
Field is one of the most significant
developments of its kind, and
through this project, we will support
Saudi Vision 2030 by helping
expand gas production and
enhancing energy sustainability.'
Work on the Zuluf Field
Development program commenced
in January 2018, with services
executed in Calgary, Canada and
Al-Khobar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The program demonstrates Jacobs' continued commitment to support the In-Kingdom Total Value
Add (IKTVA) program by maximizing locally manufactured oil and gas materials and services in
Saudi Arabia. Additionally, an on-the-job training program will be instilled facilitating skill and
knowledge transfer in all execution offices.
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Iraq: Baker Hughes to process gas at Nassiriya & Al Gharraf fields
Reuters + NewBase
Baker Hughes, a GE company, has signed a contract with Iraq’s government on Monday to
process natural gas extracted alongside crude oil at two fields in southern Iraq, the oil ministry
said.
The plan was first announced by GE last July and is part of Iraq’s efforts to stop flaring gas
associated with oil by 2021. Iraq continues to flare some of this gas because it lacks the facilities
to process it into fuel for local consumption or exports.
Gas flaring costs nearly $2.5 billion in lost revenue for the government and would be sufficient to
meet most of needs for gas-based power generation, according to the World Bank.
The contract with Baker Hughes and GE provides for processing the gas at the Nassiriya, Al
Gharraf oilfields. It is the second contract signed by Iraq to process gas associated with oil, after
one with U.S. energy firm Orion in January.
Iraq’s production of associated gas is expected to grow as the country increases its oil output
capacity. The Iraqi cabinet on Sunday approved a plan to raise the nation’s crude oil output
capacity to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2022, from about 5 million bpd now.
The country is currently producing about 4.4 million bpd, below its capacity, in line with an
agreement between the 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other
exporters including Russia to cut supply to boost oil prices.
OPEC’s second-largest producer, after Saudi Arabia, Iraq plans to award oil and gas exploration
and development contracts in 11 new blocks on April 15. The Iraqi government depends on oil
and gas sales for about 95 percent of its income.
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NewBase April 01 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil inches up, after yesterday 2% FALL but rising Russian output still weighs
Reuters + NewBase + Bloomberg
Oil prices inched up on Tuesday as rising Russian output and expectations of a reduction in Saudi
Arabian crude prices were offset by a potential slowdown in U.S. production.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $63.13 a barrel at 0434 GMT, up 11 cents
from their previous settlement. Brent crude futures rose to $67.80 per barrel, up 16 cents after
falling by 2.5 percent on Monday.
Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader, said traders were wary of
the fact that the market was still holding large amounts of long positions which will need to be sold
off at some stage.
"That makes prices vulnerable to bad news," he said, pointing to rising Russian production and
the likely drop in Saudi physical crude prices.
Oil price special
coverage
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Hedge funds and other speculators raised their net long positions in WTI futures and options in
the week to March 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. That was
the second consecutive increase and the amount of contracts held is close to the record reached
in January.
Brent reached a 2018 high of $71.28 a barrel in January but has since struggled to pass that level.
Two rallies last week ran out of steam just above $71. There was also pressure coming from the
physical market, where top exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut prices for all the crude grades
it sells to Asia in May.
This came amid rising supplies. Top producer Russia pumped 10.97 million barrels per day (bpd)
of crude in March, up from 10.95 million bpd in February, official data showed, an 11-month high.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have led ongoing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) and other major producers outside of OPEC to cut back output to support
prices.
One of the key price drivers going forward will be fuel inventories and crude output from the
United States, which has risen by almost a quarter since mid-2016 to 10.43 million bpd, overtaking
Saudi Arabia and coming in just shy of Russia.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is due to publish fuel inventory data later on Tuesday. "We
expect for a gentle dip in prices today amidst bearish reports from the American Petroleum
Institute (API)," Singapore-based Phillip Futures said.
Trade War Fears Spread in Oversupplied Market
Oil held losses below $64 a barrel as the risk of a trade war between China and the U.S. rattles a
market that’s already grappling with swelling inventories.
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Futures were little changed in New York after losing 3 percent on Monday. China
imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods valued at about $3 billion, the latest move in an
escalating trade dispute between the world’s largest economies that’s spurring investors to shy
away from risk assets. Meanwhile, American crude stockpiles are forecast to have risen for the
fifth time in six weeks.
While oil rebounded over 5 percent last month on rising geopolitical risk surrounding the U.S. and
OPEC producer Iran, a rapid increase in American production -- which has topped 10 million
barrels a day for eight straight weeks -- has placed a lid on prices. Investors also worry President
Donald Trump’s protectionist policy will lead to further reciprocal tariffs by China, undermining
global economic growth.
“The escalating dispute between the U.S. and China over trade is driving oil prices down at the
moment and it’s probably an issue that’s hard to resolve in the short term,” Will Yun, a
commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Corp., said by phone. “Along with the ongoing trade war,
we have rising U.S. crude stockpiles and production, which will always put downward pressure on
prices.”
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery was at $63.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, up 14 cents, at 11:26 a.m. in Seoul. The contract fell $1.93 to $63.01 on Monday, the
most since Feb. 9. Total volume traded was about 44 percent below the 100-day average.
Brent for June settlement added 15 cents to $67.79 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe
exchange. Prices dropped 2.5 percent, or $1.70, to $67.64 on Monday. The global benchmark
crude traded at a $4.67 premium to June WTI.
Yuan-denominated oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange lost 3.3 percent to
403 yuan a barrel. The September delivery contract closed 0.9 percent lower on Monday after
debuting last week.
The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s steel and
aluminum tariffs, the Asian country’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding that
officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating Beijing’s stance that
disputes should be resolved with dialogue.
In America, crude inventories are estimated to have added 2 million barrels last week, according
to a Bloomberg survey before Energy Information Administration data due Wednesday. The
nation’s oil production had also increased for a fifth week in the period ended March 23, hitting a
fresh record.
Yesterday’s Oil Slumps
Crude slid the most in almost two months as fears of a trade war prompted investors to dump
commodities and other risky assets.
Futures fell 3 percent on Monday in New York. U.S. stocks declined as China imposed retaliatory
tariffs on U.S. goods, the latest move in an escalating trade dispute between the world’s largest
economies. At the same time, supply concerns that prompted hedge funds to increase bullish bets
on crude have fizzled.
“The broader markets are struggling,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New
York-based hedge fund. In addition, the oil market “is super long at the moment, so without a
catalyst it will be hard for that length to stick around.”
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Oil also fell as trading volumes lagged normal levels by about 20 percent in the first trading
session after the Easter holiday weekend.
West Texas Intermediate crude has started April on shaky ground following March’s 5.4 percent
gain. OPEC’s efforts to curb output have been undercut by surging U.S. production. A Kuwaiti oil
undersecretary told the state-run news agency he doesn’t expect crude to dip below $55 a barrel.
WTI for May delivery dropped $1.93 to settle at $63.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, the lowest in two weeks. No futures were traded in New York or London on Friday due
to the Good Friday holiday.
Trade Talk
Brent for June settlement fell $1.70 to end the session at $67.64 on the London-based ICE
Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark traded at a $4.65 premium to June WTI.
The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s steel and
aluminum tariffs, the Asian country’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding that
officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating Beijing’s stance that
disputes should be resolved with dialogue.
“The retaliation from China is concerning for energy markets,” Michael Loewen, a commodities
strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said. “If a trade war occurs between these countries and it
affects demand growth from emerging markets, that could be a big problem.”
In the U.S., the oil rig count declined by the most since November last week, Baker Hughes data
showed. Still, nationwide crude production has remained above 10 million barrels a day since
early February. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased 2.4 million barrels last week,
according to a forecast compiled by Bloomberg.
“Expect choppy trading in a thin market coming out of the long holiday weekend,” said Michael
Tran, a commodities strategist with RBC Capital Markets in New York.
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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release April 03-2018
Trump Wanted a Trade War. Here's What One Looks Like
By Andrew Mayeda
In a two-week span, President Donald Trump ordered up an array of tariffs against
numerous countries, blocked Chinese takeovers of U.S. companies and sought new
restrictions on future Chinese investment. China responded with tariffs of its own on
imports of 128 U.S. goods. Economists are warning that the world is on the verge of an
all-out trade war, featuring tit-for-tat reprisals, heated rhetoric and appeals to the World
Trade Organization, which may be ill-equipped to respond.
1. What is a trade war?
The dictionary says it’s “an economic conflict in which countries impose import
restrictions on each other in order to harm each other’s trade.” Trump’s tariffs and the
threatened retaliation from other countries meet this definition, but so do centuries of
protectionist skirmishes by numerous countries in countless sectors.
The recent escalation is stoking fears that Trump has set off a full-blown trade war by
singling China out for retaliation for intellectual property theft. The quid-pro-quo actions
by the U.S. and China over steel tariffs, Trump’s invocation of national security to justify
some of his moves -- which could open a Pandora’s Box of similar claims by other
nations -- and Trump’s threat to further punish the EU if it imposes counter-duties also
add to the trade-war atmospherics.
2. What happened in previous trade wars?
One of the most notorious examples is the Smoot-Hawley Act passed by Congress in
1930 and often blamed for deepening the Great Depression. The law hiked U.S. tariffs
by an average of 20 percent, initially to protect American farmers but then broadened
as other industries lobbied for protections. As demand collapsed, countries scrambled
to maintain their gold reserves by devaluing their currencies or imposing even more
trade barriers. Global trade fell off a cliff.
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3. Who wins in trade wars?
No one, if history is any guide. When President George W. Bush raised steel tariffs in
2002, U.S. gross domestic product declined by $30.4 million, according to the U.S.
International Trade Commission.
The U.S. lost about 200,000 jobs, about 13,000 of which were in raw steel-making, by
one estimate. A report by the pro-free trade Peterson Institute for International
Economics estimated that Bush’s tariffs cost about $400,000 for every steel-industry job
saved. The World Trade Organization also ruled that the Bush tariffs were illegal.
4. What has Trump done so far?
He’s imposing tariffs on up to $60 billion of as-yet unspecified products imported from
China in retaliation for what he calls decades of intellectual property theft. He imposed
tariffs of 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively, on steel and aluminum imports, which
prompted China to say it could hit back with tariffs of its own.
While he temporarily exempted allies, including the European Union, from the metals
tariffs, he expects them to grant concessions to the U.S. to maintain the exemption.
5. Why did Trump invite this fight?
In a March 2 Twitter post, he declared trade wars “good, and easy to win.” His focus
remains reducing the U.S. trade deficit, which shows the country imports hundreds of
billions of dollars more than it exports.
Stepping back from trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and
the Trans-Pacific Partnership also appeals to Trump’s base of voters in America’s Rust
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Belt. But talk of a trade war is alarming to many U.S. business leaders, who largely
support existing trade deals, and the securities markets, which fear lower profits and
slower economic growth if the U.S. turns protectionist and other countries retaliate.
6. Who has retaliated?
China hit $3 billion of U.S. wine, fruit, pork, steel pipe and other exports with tariffs on
April 2. Many of the 128 products on the list originate from states that favored Trump in
the 2016 presidential election.
So far, high-volume agricultural exports to China, such as soybeans, haven’t been
swept into the mix. An even bigger worry for the U.S. is that China, the U.S.’s biggest
creditor, will scale back purchases of Treasuries in retaliation. China’s ambassador to
the U.S. doesn’t rule out the option.
Other countries haven’t retaliated for the steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect
March 23, largely because Trump temporarily exempted many of them. Still, the EU
is unhappy and warned it will respond with its own 25 percent tariffs on $3.5 billion of
American goods.
Like China, the EU says it will focus particularly on products from states that are part of
Trump’s political base, including iconic U.S. brands of motorcycles, blue jeans and
bourbon whiskey. In turn, Trump warned that he would impose a 25 percent penalty on
European car imports if the EU carried out its threat.
7. When does the WTO get involved?
The U.S. took the first step on March 23, filing a "request for consultations" with China
at the WTO on technology licensing. China also notified the WTO how it could respond
to the steel tariffs with levies of its own.
But retaliatory actions that unfold quickly can test the WTO’s somewhat
ponderous deliberative process. The arbiter of international trade disputes was born in
1995 out of a set of agreements struck by countries trying to reduce trade barriers. If a
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government’s complaint about another nation’s trade barriers is seen as grounded, the
WTO recommends acceptable retaliation. In the case of steel, Trump is invoking a
seldom-used clause of a 1962 U.S. law that gives him the authority to curb imports if
they undermine national security.
Under WTO rules, countries can take trade actions to protect “essential security
interests.” Other nations could challenge the validity of the U.S. use of that clause.
They also could copy the U.S. move by citing national security to block imports
themselves.
8. Could tariffs backfire on the U.S.?
Yes. Take steel tariffs. Many more people are employed in industries, such as auto
manufacturing, that buy steel to make products, than in steel-making itself. Some
consumers may also have to pay higher prices. Trade tensions could boost inflation
more than desired by Federal Reserve policy makers, who might feel the need to raise
rates more aggressively than planned. On the other hand, if the tariffs result in job
losses and the economy slows, the Fed might want to ease the pace of rate hikes.
9. Are tariffs the only weapon in trade wars?
No, there are many others. Clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S., which
Trump is already doing, is one example. Talking down, or manipulating lower, one’s
currency is another. Countries through the years have used other means to keep
foreign goods out and protect homegrown companies, a practice known as
mercantilism. Trump accuses China of using government subsidies to prop up its
domestic industries. Some practices are overt, such as quotas, and others covert, such
as unusual product specifications, lengthy inspections of goods at entry ports and
intricate licensing requirements.
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China Urges More Trade Talks as Tariffs on U.S. Goods Begin
China urged trade talks with the U.S. to prevent greater damage to relations while
saying that previously announced retaliatory measures on American imports took effect
Monday.
The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s
steel and aluminum tariffs, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding
that officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating
Beijing’s stance that disputes should be resolved with dialogue. China previously
planned to seek compensationfor trade lost because of the U.S. metals actions.
“A lot of people have expressed their endorsement to the measures via phone and
email, and they support the government to take actions to defend the interest of the
nation,” the ministry said of responses during a public comment period that ended
March 31. “Some people suggested even stronger measures.”
That followed a statement Sunday from the Customs Tariffs Commission saying that
previously announced tariffs on 128 kinds of imported goods originating in the U.S.
would take effect from Monday. The reciprocal tariffs are valued at about $3 billion,
which represents a tiny fraction of its U.S. imports.
Those are in response to the U.S. tariffs on metal that President Donald Trump
announced in March on national security grounds. Beijing said the move violated World
Trade Organization rules. The U.S. has since announced some exceptions for allies,
including Australia and Canada.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told Fox News Monday that
Trump is “ doing exactly what he said he was going to do” in order to reduce the U.S.
trade deficit with China.
"The president knows that we’re billions of dollars in a trade deficit with China,” she
said. “He’s tired of us being taken advantage of. They’ve taken our intellectual property,
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
and the president’s going to fight back and he’s going to push back, but we want to be
able to work with them to make sure we’re getting a good deal."
China said Sunday the tariffs “caused serious damage” to its interests.
Items on Beijing’s original hit-list, issued on March 23, included fresh and dried fruits,
ginseng, nuts, wine, and pork, as well as certain steel products, and its value matches
its exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. So far, high-volume agricultural exports to
China, such as soybeans, haven’t been swept into the mix.
China said earlier it could impose tariffs in two stages: a 15 percent duty on 120
products, and a 25 percent tariff on eight other products, including pork, after further
assessing the impact of American tariffs. Sunday’s announcement covered all 128
products simultaneously.
“This shows China has the tool box to counter the unfair trade actions from
Washington,” said Li Yong, a senior fellow at the China Association of International
Trade in Beijing. “It’s very measured, and with no intention to escalate tension.”
Beyond the actions on metals, the Trump administration is preparing to propose a list
of other Chinese products to be targeted with tariffs. Trump announced in March that
the U.S. will impose duties on about $50 billion in Chinese goods to punish Beijing for
what Washington sees as widespread violations of American intellectual property.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has until April 6 to release the list. U.S.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on March 28 that an announcement on the
measures will come “very shortly.” China has said it has a plan to act further if the
import levies on its goods go ahead.
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase April 2018 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to
share with our daily publications on Energy news via own NewBase Energy News - call us for details
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area
Khaled Al Awadi
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
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Ne base 03 april 2018 energy news issue 1155 by khaled al awadi

  • 1. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 03 April 2018 - Issue No. 1155 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Bahrain’s Biggest Oil Find Since 1932 Dwarfs Reserves Bloomberg + Gulf News + Bloomberg Bahrain, the smallest energy producer in the Persian Gulf, discovered its biggest oil field since it started producing crude in 1932, according to the country’s official news agency. The shale oil and natural gas discovered in a deposit off the island state’s west coast “is understood to dwarf Bahrain’s current reserves,” Bahrain News Agency reported, without giving figures. The country currently pumps about 45,000 barrels of oil a day from its Bahrain Field, and it shares income from a deposit with Saudi Arabia that produces about 300,000 barrels a day, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Bahrain discovered the offshore Khaleej Al Bahrain Basin as it seeks to expand output capacity at its wholly owned Bahrain Field to 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the decade. The island kingdom is now bound by the global agreement among major oil producers to limit production to reduce global inventories. “Initial analysis demonstrates the find is at substantial levels, capable of supporting the long-term extraction of tight oil and deep gas,” Bahrain Oil Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said in the BNA report. Consultants DeGolyer & MacNaughton Corp. evaluated the field, and Bahrain plans to provide additional details on Wednesday about the reservoir’s “size and extraction viability,” according to BNA.
  • 2. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Bahrain last week reined in plans to sell bonds as investors sought higher yields. After indicating it could sell a mix of conventional and Islamic debt with as many as three different maturities, it only offered 7.5-year sukuk, raising $1 billion on March 28. Breaks new ground The government confirmed that modelling and analytical studies are ongoing, led by Bahrain’s National Oil and Gas Authority (NOGA) working alongside private sector partners, aimed at detailing the ultimate quantity and market value of the find. A DeGolyer and MacNaughton spokesperson said that “Demac evaluated the reservoir and test data, evaluated volumetric and recovery potential, and provided reports documenting both Prospective and Contingent Resources.” “This is a project which breaks new ground for the industry,” the spokesperson said. The discovery, expected to support extensive, long-term downstream activities, follows a recent uplift in oil and gas exploration projects undertaken in response to directives from King Hamad to the Higher Committee for Natural Resources and Economic Security to increase exploration activities. Last year the Committee took the decision to accelerate initiatives to explore sites to the west of Bahrain, which resulted in the discovery of the resource and oil being struck in the fourth quarter of 2017. Additional details on the discovery, including initial findings of size and extraction viability, will be provided by the oil ministry at a press conference on Wednesday.
  • 3. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Economy to grow 3.7% in 2018 Bahrain, the smallest economy in the GCC, will register an uptick in real GDP growth to about 3.7 per cent this year, as rising oil prices lower the government’s urgency to consolidate fiscal accounts, BMI noted in a report. On Sunday the island kingdom, which lies offshore Saudi Arabia, announced its biggest hydrocarbons discovery in more than eight decades, which is expected to outsize existing reserves. The potential recovery of oil and gas from the tight reserves off its west coast will come as much-needed relief to Bahrain, which has been saddled with rising public debt, which ratings agency S&P estimated at 81 per cent of GDP in 2017. Bahrain’s economy has slowed in the wake of the three-year slump of oil prices. The country already had one of the highest break-even prices for oil in the region. The slowdown in the economy prompted the three big ratings agencies to rate Bahrain to below investment grade on the back of a widening deficit. However, BMI, a Fitch company, has revised up its forecast for Bahrain’s growth to 3.4 per cent for 2019 from 2.9 per cent, following the recent recovery in oil prices, which is expected to boost the kingdom’s fiscal revenues. BMI’s latest revisions are higher than those projected for the medium term by the country’s own state investment agency, the Bahrain Economic Development Board. In December, the EDB said it expected growth to remain at about 3 per cent in the medium term, with the economy expected to have performed around 3.1 per cent over the previous year. In its latest note BMI said Bahrain's economic growth would moderate from 2020 to about 3 per cent as oil prices stabilised. The agency has suggested declining production as one of the causes for growth to taper. However, the recent discovery of reserves may bode differently for the country’s growth. Bahrain, which has yet to implement VAT, unlike GCC peers the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has been projected by BMI to begin implementation of the measure from the beginning of next year, offsetting some growth. The delay, however will help Bahrain avoid inflationary pressures.
  • 4. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 UAE's Ras Al Khaimah launches petroleum licensing round Source: Reuters The government of the United Arab Emirates’ Ras Al Khaimah launched its first petroleum licensing round on Monday. The licensing round offers seven areas, including four shallow water offshore blocks and three onshore blocks, covering almost the entire emirate, the Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) government said in a statement. Ras Al Khaimah Offshore and Onshore Acreage are currently unlicensed. Building on legacy work and studies, RAK Gas reviewed the offshore and onshore subsurface potential, using Play Based Exploration (PBE), to build a rejuvenated Exploration Portfolio. RAK Gas has committed to organise a License Round for its entire offshore and onshore concessions in 2018, to allow companies bid for acreage. The following blocks are on offer: • Block 1: Rak B Undeveloped Oil and Gas discovery. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform' leads, related to extensional setting. Possible deeper potential (Jurassic). • Block 2: Saleh Field discovered in 1964. Gas Production from Cretaceous “Arabian Platform” (1984 to 2016). Cretaceous leads, related to extensional setting. Possible deeper potential (Jurassic). • Block 3: Cretaceous Arabian Platform leads, related to extensional setting. Possible deeper potential (Jurassic). • Block 4: Cretaceous Arabian Platform leads, related to extensional setting. Possible shallower potential related to Miocene Carbonates (Asmari Formation). • Block 5: Onshore 'thrust front' large compressive structures extending in the offshore transition zone. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform' and Tertiary Potential. • Block 6: Onshore 'thrust front' large compressive structures. extending in the offshore transition zone. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform', Jurassic and Permo-Triassic potential. • Block 7: Onshore potential related to compressive structures. Cretaceous 'Arabian Platform, Jurassic and Permo-Triassic potential. Data Rooms will be open in Ras Al Khaimah and London.
  • 5. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Saudi Aramco selects Jacobs for Zuluf field development program Source: Jacobs Saudi Aramco has awarded Jacobs Engineering Group a contract to provide engineering and project management services for the Zuluf Field Development Program's Arab Heavy (AH) Crude Oil Increment 600 MBCD - Onshore Central Processing Facilities (CPF) project, which will provide facilities to process 600,000 barrels of oil per day of Arabian heavy crude oil from the Zuluf offshore field in the Arabian Gulf. This contract is among several oil and gas major project agreements that Saudi Aramco signed in November 2017 to enhance the company's energy sustainability, diversify the economy, expand gas production and localize domestic content. Jacobs' scope of work includes the onshore central processing facilities which will contain a new gas/oil separation plant (GOSP), gas compression facilities, a new water injection plant and pipelines. The stabilized crude oil from the GOSP will be transported to the Ju'aymah terminal via new downstream pipelines. The separated gas and condensate streams will be transported to the proposed Tanajib Gas Plant via new pipelines. 'This landmark contract reaffirms our strong relationship with Saudi Aramco and our long-standing position in the Middle East,' said Jacobs Petroleum and Chemicals President Vinayak Pai. 'The Zuluf Field is one of the most significant developments of its kind, and through this project, we will support Saudi Vision 2030 by helping expand gas production and enhancing energy sustainability.' Work on the Zuluf Field Development program commenced in January 2018, with services executed in Calgary, Canada and Al-Khobar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The program demonstrates Jacobs' continued commitment to support the In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) program by maximizing locally manufactured oil and gas materials and services in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, an on-the-job training program will be instilled facilitating skill and knowledge transfer in all execution offices.
  • 6. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Iraq: Baker Hughes to process gas at Nassiriya & Al Gharraf fields Reuters + NewBase Baker Hughes, a GE company, has signed a contract with Iraq’s government on Monday to process natural gas extracted alongside crude oil at two fields in southern Iraq, the oil ministry said. The plan was first announced by GE last July and is part of Iraq’s efforts to stop flaring gas associated with oil by 2021. Iraq continues to flare some of this gas because it lacks the facilities to process it into fuel for local consumption or exports. Gas flaring costs nearly $2.5 billion in lost revenue for the government and would be sufficient to meet most of needs for gas-based power generation, according to the World Bank. The contract with Baker Hughes and GE provides for processing the gas at the Nassiriya, Al Gharraf oilfields. It is the second contract signed by Iraq to process gas associated with oil, after one with U.S. energy firm Orion in January. Iraq’s production of associated gas is expected to grow as the country increases its oil output capacity. The Iraqi cabinet on Sunday approved a plan to raise the nation’s crude oil output capacity to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2022, from about 5 million bpd now. The country is currently producing about 4.4 million bpd, below its capacity, in line with an agreement between the 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters including Russia to cut supply to boost oil prices. OPEC’s second-largest producer, after Saudi Arabia, Iraq plans to award oil and gas exploration and development contracts in 11 new blocks on April 15. The Iraqi government depends on oil and gas sales for about 95 percent of its income.
  • 7. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 NewBase April 01 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil inches up, after yesterday 2% FALL but rising Russian output still weighs Reuters + NewBase + Bloomberg Oil prices inched up on Tuesday as rising Russian output and expectations of a reduction in Saudi Arabian crude prices were offset by a potential slowdown in U.S. production. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $63.13 a barrel at 0434 GMT, up 11 cents from their previous settlement. Brent crude futures rose to $67.80 per barrel, up 16 cents after falling by 2.5 percent on Monday. Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader, said traders were wary of the fact that the market was still holding large amounts of long positions which will need to be sold off at some stage. "That makes prices vulnerable to bad news," he said, pointing to rising Russian production and the likely drop in Saudi physical crude prices. Oil price special coverage
  • 8. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Hedge funds and other speculators raised their net long positions in WTI futures and options in the week to March 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. That was the second consecutive increase and the amount of contracts held is close to the record reached in January. Brent reached a 2018 high of $71.28 a barrel in January but has since struggled to pass that level. Two rallies last week ran out of steam just above $71. There was also pressure coming from the physical market, where top exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut prices for all the crude grades it sells to Asia in May. This came amid rising supplies. Top producer Russia pumped 10.97 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March, up from 10.95 million bpd in February, official data showed, an 11-month high. Saudi Arabia and Russia have led ongoing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers outside of OPEC to cut back output to support prices. One of the key price drivers going forward will be fuel inventories and crude output from the United States, which has risen by almost a quarter since mid-2016 to 10.43 million bpd, overtaking Saudi Arabia and coming in just shy of Russia. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is due to publish fuel inventory data later on Tuesday. "We expect for a gentle dip in prices today amidst bearish reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API)," Singapore-based Phillip Futures said. Trade War Fears Spread in Oversupplied Market Oil held losses below $64 a barrel as the risk of a trade war between China and the U.S. rattles a market that’s already grappling with swelling inventories.
  • 9. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Futures were little changed in New York after losing 3 percent on Monday. China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods valued at about $3 billion, the latest move in an escalating trade dispute between the world’s largest economies that’s spurring investors to shy away from risk assets. Meanwhile, American crude stockpiles are forecast to have risen for the fifth time in six weeks. While oil rebounded over 5 percent last month on rising geopolitical risk surrounding the U.S. and OPEC producer Iran, a rapid increase in American production -- which has topped 10 million barrels a day for eight straight weeks -- has placed a lid on prices. Investors also worry President Donald Trump’s protectionist policy will lead to further reciprocal tariffs by China, undermining global economic growth. “The escalating dispute between the U.S. and China over trade is driving oil prices down at the moment and it’s probably an issue that’s hard to resolve in the short term,” Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Corp., said by phone. “Along with the ongoing trade war, we have rising U.S. crude stockpiles and production, which will always put downward pressure on prices.” West Texas Intermediate for May delivery was at $63.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 14 cents, at 11:26 a.m. in Seoul. The contract fell $1.93 to $63.01 on Monday, the most since Feb. 9. Total volume traded was about 44 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for June settlement added 15 cents to $67.79 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices dropped 2.5 percent, or $1.70, to $67.64 on Monday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $4.67 premium to June WTI. Yuan-denominated oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange lost 3.3 percent to 403 yuan a barrel. The September delivery contract closed 0.9 percent lower on Monday after debuting last week. The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s steel and aluminum tariffs, the Asian country’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding that officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating Beijing’s stance that disputes should be resolved with dialogue. In America, crude inventories are estimated to have added 2 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before Energy Information Administration data due Wednesday. The nation’s oil production had also increased for a fifth week in the period ended March 23, hitting a fresh record. Yesterday’s Oil Slumps Crude slid the most in almost two months as fears of a trade war prompted investors to dump commodities and other risky assets. Futures fell 3 percent on Monday in New York. U.S. stocks declined as China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, the latest move in an escalating trade dispute between the world’s largest economies. At the same time, supply concerns that prompted hedge funds to increase bullish bets on crude have fizzled. “The broader markets are struggling,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund. In addition, the oil market “is super long at the moment, so without a catalyst it will be hard for that length to stick around.”
  • 10. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Oil also fell as trading volumes lagged normal levels by about 20 percent in the first trading session after the Easter holiday weekend. West Texas Intermediate crude has started April on shaky ground following March’s 5.4 percent gain. OPEC’s efforts to curb output have been undercut by surging U.S. production. A Kuwaiti oil undersecretary told the state-run news agency he doesn’t expect crude to dip below $55 a barrel. WTI for May delivery dropped $1.93 to settle at $63.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest in two weeks. No futures were traded in New York or London on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday. Trade Talk Brent for June settlement fell $1.70 to end the session at $67.64 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark traded at a $4.65 premium to June WTI. The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s steel and aluminum tariffs, the Asian country’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding that officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating Beijing’s stance that disputes should be resolved with dialogue. “The retaliation from China is concerning for energy markets,” Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said. “If a trade war occurs between these countries and it affects demand growth from emerging markets, that could be a big problem.” In the U.S., the oil rig count declined by the most since November last week, Baker Hughes data showed. Still, nationwide crude production has remained above 10 million barrels a day since early February. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased 2.4 million barrels last week, according to a forecast compiled by Bloomberg. “Expect choppy trading in a thin market coming out of the long holiday weekend,” said Michael Tran, a commodities strategist with RBC Capital Markets in New York.
  • 11. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release April 03-2018 Trump Wanted a Trade War. Here's What One Looks Like By Andrew Mayeda In a two-week span, President Donald Trump ordered up an array of tariffs against numerous countries, blocked Chinese takeovers of U.S. companies and sought new restrictions on future Chinese investment. China responded with tariffs of its own on imports of 128 U.S. goods. Economists are warning that the world is on the verge of an all-out trade war, featuring tit-for-tat reprisals, heated rhetoric and appeals to the World Trade Organization, which may be ill-equipped to respond. 1. What is a trade war? The dictionary says it’s “an economic conflict in which countries impose import restrictions on each other in order to harm each other’s trade.” Trump’s tariffs and the threatened retaliation from other countries meet this definition, but so do centuries of protectionist skirmishes by numerous countries in countless sectors. The recent escalation is stoking fears that Trump has set off a full-blown trade war by singling China out for retaliation for intellectual property theft. The quid-pro-quo actions by the U.S. and China over steel tariffs, Trump’s invocation of national security to justify some of his moves -- which could open a Pandora’s Box of similar claims by other nations -- and Trump’s threat to further punish the EU if it imposes counter-duties also add to the trade-war atmospherics. 2. What happened in previous trade wars? One of the most notorious examples is the Smoot-Hawley Act passed by Congress in 1930 and often blamed for deepening the Great Depression. The law hiked U.S. tariffs by an average of 20 percent, initially to protect American farmers but then broadened as other industries lobbied for protections. As demand collapsed, countries scrambled to maintain their gold reserves by devaluing their currencies or imposing even more trade barriers. Global trade fell off a cliff.
  • 12. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 3. Who wins in trade wars? No one, if history is any guide. When President George W. Bush raised steel tariffs in 2002, U.S. gross domestic product declined by $30.4 million, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The U.S. lost about 200,000 jobs, about 13,000 of which were in raw steel-making, by one estimate. A report by the pro-free trade Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that Bush’s tariffs cost about $400,000 for every steel-industry job saved. The World Trade Organization also ruled that the Bush tariffs were illegal. 4. What has Trump done so far? He’s imposing tariffs on up to $60 billion of as-yet unspecified products imported from China in retaliation for what he calls decades of intellectual property theft. He imposed tariffs of 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively, on steel and aluminum imports, which prompted China to say it could hit back with tariffs of its own. While he temporarily exempted allies, including the European Union, from the metals tariffs, he expects them to grant concessions to the U.S. to maintain the exemption. 5. Why did Trump invite this fight? In a March 2 Twitter post, he declared trade wars “good, and easy to win.” His focus remains reducing the U.S. trade deficit, which shows the country imports hundreds of billions of dollars more than it exports. Stepping back from trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership also appeals to Trump’s base of voters in America’s Rust
  • 13. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Belt. But talk of a trade war is alarming to many U.S. business leaders, who largely support existing trade deals, and the securities markets, which fear lower profits and slower economic growth if the U.S. turns protectionist and other countries retaliate. 6. Who has retaliated? China hit $3 billion of U.S. wine, fruit, pork, steel pipe and other exports with tariffs on April 2. Many of the 128 products on the list originate from states that favored Trump in the 2016 presidential election. So far, high-volume agricultural exports to China, such as soybeans, haven’t been swept into the mix. An even bigger worry for the U.S. is that China, the U.S.’s biggest creditor, will scale back purchases of Treasuries in retaliation. China’s ambassador to the U.S. doesn’t rule out the option. Other countries haven’t retaliated for the steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect March 23, largely because Trump temporarily exempted many of them. Still, the EU is unhappy and warned it will respond with its own 25 percent tariffs on $3.5 billion of American goods. Like China, the EU says it will focus particularly on products from states that are part of Trump’s political base, including iconic U.S. brands of motorcycles, blue jeans and bourbon whiskey. In turn, Trump warned that he would impose a 25 percent penalty on European car imports if the EU carried out its threat. 7. When does the WTO get involved? The U.S. took the first step on March 23, filing a "request for consultations" with China at the WTO on technology licensing. China also notified the WTO how it could respond to the steel tariffs with levies of its own. But retaliatory actions that unfold quickly can test the WTO’s somewhat ponderous deliberative process. The arbiter of international trade disputes was born in 1995 out of a set of agreements struck by countries trying to reduce trade barriers. If a
  • 14. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 government’s complaint about another nation’s trade barriers is seen as grounded, the WTO recommends acceptable retaliation. In the case of steel, Trump is invoking a seldom-used clause of a 1962 U.S. law that gives him the authority to curb imports if they undermine national security. Under WTO rules, countries can take trade actions to protect “essential security interests.” Other nations could challenge the validity of the U.S. use of that clause. They also could copy the U.S. move by citing national security to block imports themselves. 8. Could tariffs backfire on the U.S.? Yes. Take steel tariffs. Many more people are employed in industries, such as auto manufacturing, that buy steel to make products, than in steel-making itself. Some consumers may also have to pay higher prices. Trade tensions could boost inflation more than desired by Federal Reserve policy makers, who might feel the need to raise rates more aggressively than planned. On the other hand, if the tariffs result in job losses and the economy slows, the Fed might want to ease the pace of rate hikes. 9. Are tariffs the only weapon in trade wars? No, there are many others. Clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S., which Trump is already doing, is one example. Talking down, or manipulating lower, one’s currency is another. Countries through the years have used other means to keep foreign goods out and protect homegrown companies, a practice known as mercantilism. Trump accuses China of using government subsidies to prop up its domestic industries. Some practices are overt, such as quotas, and others covert, such as unusual product specifications, lengthy inspections of goods at entry ports and intricate licensing requirements.
  • 15. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 China Urges More Trade Talks as Tariffs on U.S. Goods Begin China urged trade talks with the U.S. to prevent greater damage to relations while saying that previously announced retaliatory measures on American imports took effect Monday. The U.S. didn’t respond to China’s March 26 request for consultation on Washington’s steel and aluminum tariffs, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement Monday, adding that officials have widespread public support for tougher measures and repeating Beijing’s stance that disputes should be resolved with dialogue. China previously planned to seek compensationfor trade lost because of the U.S. metals actions. “A lot of people have expressed their endorsement to the measures via phone and email, and they support the government to take actions to defend the interest of the nation,” the ministry said of responses during a public comment period that ended March 31. “Some people suggested even stronger measures.” That followed a statement Sunday from the Customs Tariffs Commission saying that previously announced tariffs on 128 kinds of imported goods originating in the U.S. would take effect from Monday. The reciprocal tariffs are valued at about $3 billion, which represents a tiny fraction of its U.S. imports. Those are in response to the U.S. tariffs on metal that President Donald Trump announced in March on national security grounds. Beijing said the move violated World Trade Organization rules. The U.S. has since announced some exceptions for allies, including Australia and Canada. White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told Fox News Monday that Trump is “ doing exactly what he said he was going to do” in order to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China. "The president knows that we’re billions of dollars in a trade deficit with China,” she said. “He’s tired of us being taken advantage of. They’ve taken our intellectual property,
  • 16. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 and the president’s going to fight back and he’s going to push back, but we want to be able to work with them to make sure we’re getting a good deal." China said Sunday the tariffs “caused serious damage” to its interests. Items on Beijing’s original hit-list, issued on March 23, included fresh and dried fruits, ginseng, nuts, wine, and pork, as well as certain steel products, and its value matches its exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. So far, high-volume agricultural exports to China, such as soybeans, haven’t been swept into the mix. China said earlier it could impose tariffs in two stages: a 15 percent duty on 120 products, and a 25 percent tariff on eight other products, including pork, after further assessing the impact of American tariffs. Sunday’s announcement covered all 128 products simultaneously. “This shows China has the tool box to counter the unfair trade actions from Washington,” said Li Yong, a senior fellow at the China Association of International Trade in Beijing. “It’s very measured, and with no intention to escalate tension.” Beyond the actions on metals, the Trump administration is preparing to propose a list of other Chinese products to be targeted with tariffs. Trump announced in March that the U.S. will impose duties on about $50 billion in Chinese goods to punish Beijing for what Washington sees as widespread violations of American intellectual property. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has until April 6 to release the list. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on March 28 that an announcement on the measures will come “very shortly.” China has said it has a plan to act further if the import levies on its goods go ahead.
  • 17. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase April 2018 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to share with our daily publications on Energy news via own NewBase Energy News - call us for details khdmohd@hawkenergy.net Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area Khaled Al Awadi
  • 19. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
  • 20. Copyright © 2018 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below