Forestry adaptation to Climate change in England, presentation given to Canadian foresters

1. London Calling
Species Diversification and Choice
John Weir
Adviser for Woodland creation and resilience
John.weir@forestry.gsi.gov.uk
www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland

2. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF2
Policy and strategy, etc, etc, etc
Climate change action
plan
A strategy for the Forestry Commission estate in England
1st
August 2011

3. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF3
An age of innocence
• Sycamore, Scots pine brought to England and
Beech was moved north. 8,500 years ago an island
• Romans brought us sweet chestnut from Turkey
and rabbits and fallow deer for food.
• Napoleonic wars brought a huge new Oak resource
from Europe
• The Victorian plant hunters brought us a wealth of
trees from around the world, and the grey squirrel
• The Forestry Commission used the trees available

4. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF4
The Age of Stupid
•

5. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF5
Our forests today
Conifer Species Today
Scots Pine
Corsican Pine
Sitka Spruce
Douglas Fir
Larch (EL, HL, JL)
Other Conifer
Oak
26%
Beech
10%
Sycamore
8%
Ash
16%
Birch
12%
Poplar
2%
Sweet chestnut
2%
Elm
0%
Other Broadleaves
11%
Mixed Broadleaves
13%
Data Sourc
Woodland -
d t 1998
• 5 conifer species account
for 88% of the total
• 5 broadleaved species
account for over 72% of
the total
• 10 tree species account for
80% of our woodland!!!!
Broadleaved species today

6. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF6
Pests and diseases
Chalara on Ash!!!

7. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF7
What are we doing??
Telegraph.co.uk-7 Mar 2013
The deer population has exploded since the 1960s
Deer cull essential to protect woodlands:
studyAFP-6 Mar 2013LONDON —
Half of the country's deer population needs to be culled to
preserve woodlands and birdlife, said a scientific study
published on ...
cull70,000 road kills per year
AlexRoe

8. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF8
Warnings of things to come
• 1970s Dutch Elm disease
• 1976 The big drought
• 1987 10 years felling programme lost overnight
1975 John Weir stared work with the Forestry Commission (37 years)

9. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF9
Climate Change
Source: UK Meteorological Office

10. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF10
1961-90
Forest of Dean Today
Coleford

11. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF11
Forest of Dean by 2050
2050s High

12. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF12
Forest of Dean 2080
2080s High

13. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF13
Risk to woodlands on the Public
Forest Estate
By the 2080s, a risk of 65% of the PFE being
classed as ‘unsuitable’ in the absence of
adaptation – or 35% decline in productivity

14. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF14
feet per day
The rate of change……..
Our trees are having a pretty tough time of it and
it can only get more challenging.
To do nothing is to leave no options for future
generations, so what do we know to allow us to
take actions?

15. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF15
Climate Change Strategy England
• Adopt the principle of anticipatory adaptation. This offers
the highest potential gains for forest resilience, and the
benefits they provide.
• Take an approach that is ‘not risk averse’.
• Global emissions are currently tracking close to some of the
more extreme emissions scenarios that have been published,
so it is prudent to consider the 2050 high scenario when
planning for the future.
• Diversification is the theme!!!!

16. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF16
What does the past tell us?
DEAN
between
wars WW2
1946
1949 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Grand
Total
Species
Douglas fir DF 25 11 3 87 386 152 81 36 46 846
European larch EL 81 33 36 69 82 18 9 7 7 390
European silver fir ESF 2 1 3
Grand fir GF 21 27 4 52
Japanese red
cedar JCR 1 1
Lawsons cypress LC 4 4 2 21 26 58
Leyland cypress LEC 1 1 1 3
Maritime pine MAP
Oriental spruce MCP 3 2 5
Mountain pine MOP
Noble fir NF 2 6 1 9
Serbian spruce OMS 5 1 6
Ponderosa pine PDP 1 1
Raoul RAN 4 5 1 10
Monteray pine RAP
Red alder RAR
Western red
cedar RC 5 1 24 125 54 2 1 218
Red Oak ROK 1 12 1 1 15
Roble RON 1 3 4
Coast redwood RSQ 5 3 3 1 12
Sweet chestnut SC 44 10 6 40 41 45 32 45 48 340
Weymouth pine WEP 1 2 4
Western hemlock WH 3 1 2 41 88 2 1 138
Wellingtonia WSQ 1 1 3
XB 8 8 6 26 11 4 6 3 1 107
XC 2 2 22
XF 1 1 2

17. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF17
The ‘READ’ report species

18. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF18
Spruce
Serbian spruce: Picea ormorika Oriental spruce: Picea orientalis

19. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF19
After Larch: a deciduous conifer?
Dawn redwood: Metasequoia
glyptostroboides

20. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF20
Redwoods
Coast redwood: Sequoia sempervirens Wellingtonia: Sequoiadendron
giganteum

21. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF21
Crytomeria: Japanese cedar
Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica

22. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF22
Cedars
Atlas cedar: Cerdus atlantica
Cedar of lebanon: Cedrus libani
Himalayan cedar: Cedrus diodara

23. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF23
Western red Cedar: Thuja plicata Leyland cyprus: Cupressus x leylandii

24. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF24
Pines post Dothistroma
Macedonian pine: Pinus peuce Weymouth pine: Pinus strobus

25. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF25
European Fir’s
European silver fir: Abies alba Greek fir: Abies cephalonica

26. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF26
Old favourites!
Western hemlock: Tsuga heterophylla Douglas-fir: Pseudotsuga menziesii

27. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF27
Lesser-used natives
Small-leafed lime: Tilia cordata Hornbeam: Carpinus betula

28. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF28
Near Native – but when
Downy birch: Quercus pubescens Narrow-leafed ash: Fraxinus angustifolia
Oriental beech: Fagus orientalis Common walnut: Juglans regia

29. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF29
A few more...
Red alder: Alnus rubra Italian alder: Alnus viridis
Robinia: Robinia pseudoacacia Black Walnut: Juglans nigra

30. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF30
A few more...
Eucalypts:
E. gunii; nitens; glaucescens; dalrympleana
Tulip tree/yellow poplar:
Liriodendron tulipifera

31. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF31
2 or 3 Degrees of Latitude 5?
3
5
0
2
3 degree
5 degree
For the south of the country…
Very Important for our native broadleaf species
Best to use improved stock whenever possible (FTT).
The French are foresters
Grown here?
Think biosecurity!
Think forest hygiene!

32. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF32
Native distributions

33. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF33
Native distributions
Douglas fir

34. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF34
Tree Breeding, native and exotic

35. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF35
Expert advice and support
• We need to create an urgency for foresters to
act
• We must get the right tree, in the right place
for the right reason.
• We need to remove the excuses to not take
action
• We are trying to lead by example on our own
land
• We are making our knowledge available to all

36. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF36
Guidance
•FCE’s climate change resource
www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeenglandwww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland
•Forest research
www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechangewww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechange

37. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF37
Providing the evidence
Decision Support Advice,
reducing the risk

38. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF38
Guidance on adapting species choice:
Ecological Site Classification (ESC)
ESC is a knowledge-based
model; productivity
distribution data are used to
inform decisions;
ESC was developed to
support the UK forestry
industry in commercial
species selection;
Rising CO2 levels are not
accounted for.
Detailed species
information, including
provenance guidance,
provided
www.eforestry.gov.uk/forestdss

39. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF39
Data Input
Grid reference gives elevation aspect etc. Good soils or vegetation data gives
growing medium and rooting depth etc. Uses meterological data to 100m. Climate
Change data on 5km squares so not so accurate. Rubbish in, rubbish out.

40. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF40
Suitability Today

41. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF41
Climate Change

42. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF42
Native Woodland Type

43. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF43
Simple messages
• Woodland design and contingency planning
• understand climate change projections
• create fire, windstorm and flood contingency plans
• monitor and review
• Bring existing woodlands into management
• manage deer, squirrels and invasive species
• thin to encourage regeneration
• enrichment planting to diversify species
• Adapt choice of planting material
• diversity of species – including ‘minor species’
• genetic diversity and more southerly origins
• species capable of withstanding hotter, drier climate
• Transform to ‘continuous cover forestry’
• Landscape approaches
• link woodlands in the landscape
• enlarge existing woodlands
www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland

44. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF44
Some things we can do??
Use the knowledge to make ‘anticipatory
decisions’,
‘do not be risk averse’,
accept ‘2050 high scenario’ is very probable
and that we have an urgency as today is
2013, well into this uncertain future

45. 07/04/2014 CIF/ICF45
• Thank you