Presentation for the ALCTS Acquisitions Section on usage of statistical analysis of approval plans and performance of librarians in selected books that are used by our students and faculty.

1. THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY

2. The Claremont Colleges Library
Beyond the Books:
Using Statistical Analysis to
Evaluate & Revise An Approval
Plan Profile
JOHN MCDONALD
A LC T S A S R E S E A RC H & STAT I ST I C S PRO G R A M
N EW O R L E A N S , LO U I S I A N A
J U N E 25 , 2 0 1 1

3. The Claremont Colleges Library
Too many books about cats coming on approval?
CC BY-NC-ND 2.0: http://www.flickr.com/photos/axis/280925758/ June 25, 2011

4. The Claremont Colleges Library
Time to revise the plan…
June 25, 2011

5. The Claremont Colleges Library
This profile-ese looks like Greek to me
June 25, 2011

6. The Claremont Colleges Library
It probably won’t end well…
June 25, 2011

7. The Claremont Colleges Library
There has got to be a better way
June 25, 2011

8. The Claremont Colleges Library
What was wrong at Claremont
(assumptions, right or wrong)
• No attention to plan, in some areas
• Plan not addressing our needs
• Not enough auto-shipped books
• Too many slips
• Slips don’t match orders
• Orders coming from outside the plan
June 25, 2011

9. The Claremont Colleges Library
Why does it matter?
• Plan should take care of ‘easy’ buys
• Plan should provide targeted notifications
• Plan should limit out the ‘easy’ non-buys
• Librarians should spend time on ‘tougher’ decisions
June 25, 2011

10. The Claremont Colleges Library
Could data show
us the answer?
June 25, 2011

11. The Claremont Colleges Library
Dig up
some data
• Downloaded records from GOBI
• Over 50,000 books profiled by YBP in 2006
• Merged with our catalog data on purchase patterns
• Included circulation statistics
• Deduped print/cloth, excluded eBooks
• Coded each book with Autoship/Slip/Exclude status
• Coded each book with Purchase Status for Claremont
June 25, 2011

12. The Claremont Colleges Library
7% 10% Claremont Actions Books
Not Ordered, No Slip 20,418
11% Not Ordered, Slip 16,059
Ordered, No Slip 5,300
Ordered, Slip 3,665
Autoship 4,839
Books Published in
41% 2006, in GOBI
32%
Actual Outcomes
June 25, 2011

13. The Claremont Colleges Library
2% Method Books
4% Autoship 11,000
Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000
22% Not Ordered, Slip 8,000
16% Ordered, No Slip 1,000
Ordered, Slip 2,000
Books Published in
2006, in GOBI
Best Case
Outcomes
56%
June 25, 2011

14. The Claremont Colleges Library
Analysis of Variance, Predicting Purchase
Number of obs = 44457 R-squared = 0.1032
Root MSE 0.3669 Adj R-squared = 0.1016
Source Partial SS df MS F Prob > F
Model 687.704 80 8.5963 63.86 0
slip 0.834 1 0.8338 6.19 0.0128
ybp_select 1.032 5 0.2064 1.53 0.1756
content_level 0.825 5 0.1650 1.23 0.2939
country 2.622 4 0.6554 4.87 0.0006
slip*ybp_select 22.795 5 4.5591 33.87 0.0000
slip*discipline 47.601 8 5.9502 44.20 0.0000
slip*content_level 2.384 4 0.5960 4.43 0.0014
slip*country 0.359 4 0.0898 0.67 0.6146
ybp_select*content 4.651 11 0.4228 3.14 0.0003
ybp_select*country 12.982 20 0.6491 4.82 0.0000
content*country 23.481 13 1.8062 13.42 0.0000
Residual 5973.277 44376 0.1346

15. The Claremont Colleges Library
Best model of purchase patterns included just a
few variables and explained 10% of variance:
Country of Publication
Slip Sent+YBP Select (interaction effect)
Slip Sent+Discipline (interaction effect)
YBP Select+Discipline (interaction effect)
YBP Select+Country (interaction effect)
Content Level+Discipline (interaction)
Content Level+Country (interaction)
*simpler model included just 3 variables June 25, 2011

16. The Claremont Colleges Library
Best model of usage patterns included just a few
variables and explained 6% of variance:
Discipline
Slip Sent+Discipline
YBP Select+Discipline
YBP Select+Content Level
Interesting to note: Slip Sent+Discipline and YBP
Select+Discipline were both predictors for
purchase and usage. June 25, 2011

17. The Claremont Colleges Library
A few easy changes can really improve the plan
• Adjust Non-subject parameters
o Limit Country of Origin
• Include YBP Select
• Analyze LC Class and Disciplines
o Move Slips to Autoship when appropriate
o Eliminate Slips when not likely to result in
purchase or usage June 25, 2011

18. The Claremont Colleges Library
“Likelihood of purchase” chart
June 25, 2011

19. The Claremont Colleges Library
Translate to Profile format, part 1…
June 25, 2011

20. The Claremont Colleges Library
Translate to Profile format, part 2…
June 25, 2011

21. The Claremont Colleges Library
The Good…
Claremont
YBP Action Books %
Action
AUTOSHIP AUTOSHIP 1,457 3.3%
SLIP SLIP 9,644 22.2%
EXCLUDE EXCLUDE 26,164 60.10%
Total 37,265 85.60%
June 25, 2011

22. The Claremont Colleges Library
The Not so Bad…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
EXCLUDE SLIP - LC SUBJECT 1965 4.51%
EXCLUDE SLIP - FORMAT 371 0.85%
EXCLUDE SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 250 0.57%
EXCLUDE SLIP - PRICE 213 0.49%
EXCLUDE SLIP - BINDING 4 0.01%
EXCLUDE SLIP - REFERENCE TYPE 4 0.01%
EXCLUDE SLIP - PUBLISHER 1 0.00%
Total 2808 6.45%
June 25, 2011

23. The Claremont Colleges Library
The Not so Bad…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
SLIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 1284 2.95%
SLIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 234 0.54%
SLIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 65 0.15%
SLIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 28 0.06%
SLIP EXCLUDE - LANG 15 0.03%
SLIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 5 0.01%
Total 1631 3.75%
June 25, 2011

24. The Claremont Colleges Library
The Not so Bad…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 136 0.00%
AUTOSHIP SLIP - LC SUBJECT 104 0.16%
AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 69 0.01%
AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 14 0.31%
AUTOSHIP SLIP - FORMAT 9 0.03%
AUTOSHIP SLIP - PRICE 6 0.01%
AUTOSHIP SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 5 0.02%
AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 3 0.24%
AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 1 0.01%
Total 347 0.80%
June 25, 2011

25. The Claremont Colleges Library
The Problem…
YBP Action Claremont Action Books %
EXCLUDE AUTOSHIP 726 1.67%
SLIP AUTOSHIP 757 1.74%
Total 1,483 3.41%
June 25, 2011

26. The Claremont Colleges Library
What went wrong
June 25, 2011

27. The Claremont Colleges Library
Ask why on the “Likelihood of purchase” chart
June 25, 2011

28. The Claremont Colleges Library
Essentials were essential…
Claremont
Books Profiled, 2006 All YBP Books
Purchased Books
Select Designation Titles Price Titles Price
None 1,011 $52,256 838 $45,547
Basic-Essential 902 $33,387 528 $18,873
Basic-Recommended 9,467 $380,239 2,950 $121,557
Research-Essential 642 $46,558 389 $23,425
Research-Recommended 17,221 $1,538,120 6,152 $438,098
Specialized 3,938 $533,761 704 $61,816
Supplementary 17,100 $1,038,704 2,243 $126,674
June 25, 2011

29. The Claremont Colleges Library
Tune Up needed
• Receive all “ESSENTIAL” Books, except in very
obvious areas where we have no collecting history
• Loosen up book/slip designations on targeted LC
sub-classes
• Look at non-subject parameters that may be
(unintentionally) trumping LC content
• Have librarians work with faculty on additional
areas to include June 25, 2011

30. The Claremont Colleges Library
Method Books
Autoship 8,100
14%
Not Ordered 34,765
26% Slip 15,200
Books Published in
2010, in GOBI
Tuned Up
60% Revised Plan
Outcomes

31. The Claremont Colleges Library
2% Method Books
4% Autoship 11,000
Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000
22% Not Ordered, Slip 8,000
16% Ordered, No Slip 1,000
Ordered, Slip 2,000
Books Published in
2006, in GOBI
Best Case
Outcomes
56%
June 25, 2011

32. The Claremont Colleges Library
Lessons learned
• Publishing output fluctuates by year
o Analyze more than a year of data at a time
o Especially at the more granular LC subclass levels
• Profiling is an art
o Use logic as much as data
• Details are essential
• Listen to your vendor
• No need to be risk averse June 25, 2011

33. The Claremont Colleges Library
http://www.zazzle.com/statistics_means_never_having_to_say_youre_certai_tshirt-235669028746970031
June 25, 2011