Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile

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Presentation for the ALCTS Acquisitions Section on usage of statistical analysis of approval plans and performance of librarians in selected books that are used by our students and faculty.

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  • So you’re getting too many books about Cats in your approval plan…time to revise it!
  • Initially, you think, just sit down and go over the plan and mark up some changes…
  • But then you look at the plan and say, “Wha?”
  • And then you realize that it’s not going to end well.
  • Gotta be a better way…
  • So I turned my mind to statistics, wondering if somehow quantitative evidence could shed some light on how to revise our plan.
  • Profiling not necessarily machine readable
  • Profiling not necessarily machine readable
  • Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile

    1. 1. THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY
    2. 2. The Claremont Colleges Library Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile JOHN MCDONALDA LC T S A S R E S E A RC H & STAT I ST I C S PRO G R A M N EW O R L E A N S , LO U I S I A N A J U N E 25 , 2 0 1 1
    3. 3. The Claremont Colleges LibraryToo many books about cats coming on approval? CC BY-NC-ND 2.0: http://www.flickr.com/photos/axis/280925758/ June 25, 2011
    4. 4. The Claremont Colleges LibraryTime to revise the plan… June 25, 2011
    5. 5. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThis profile-ese looks like Greek to me June 25, 2011
    6. 6. The Claremont Colleges LibraryIt probably won’t end well… June 25, 2011
    7. 7. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThere has got to be a better way June 25, 2011
    8. 8. The Claremont Colleges LibraryWhat was wrong at Claremont (assumptions, right or wrong) • No attention to plan, in some areas • Plan not addressing our needs • Not enough auto-shipped books • Too many slips • Slips don’t match orders • Orders coming from outside the plan June 25, 2011
    9. 9. The Claremont Colleges LibraryWhy does it matter? • Plan should take care of ‘easy’ buys • Plan should provide targeted notifications • Plan should limit out the ‘easy’ non-buys • Librarians should spend time on ‘tougher’ decisions June 25, 2011
    10. 10. The Claremont Colleges LibraryCould data show us the answer? June 25, 2011
    11. 11. The Claremont Colleges Library Dig upsome data• Downloaded records from GOBI • Over 50,000 books profiled by YBP in 2006 • Merged with our catalog data on purchase patterns • Included circulation statistics • Deduped print/cloth, excluded eBooks • Coded each book with Autoship/Slip/Exclude status • Coded each book with Purchase Status for Claremont June 25, 2011
    12. 12. The Claremont Colleges Library 7% 10% Claremont Actions Books Not Ordered, No Slip 20,418 11% Not Ordered, Slip 16,059 Ordered, No Slip 5,300 Ordered, Slip 3,665 Autoship 4,839 Books Published in 41% 2006, in GOBI32% Actual Outcomes June 25, 2011
    13. 13. The Claremont Colleges Library 2% Method Books 4% Autoship 11,000 Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000 22% Not Ordered, Slip 8,00016% Ordered, No Slip 1,000 Ordered, Slip 2,000 Books Published in 2006, in GOBI Best Case Outcomes 56% June 25, 2011
    14. 14. The Claremont Colleges LibraryAnalysis of Variance, Predicting Purchase Number of obs = 44457 R-squared = 0.1032 Root MSE 0.3669 Adj R-squared = 0.1016 Source Partial SS df MS F Prob > F Model 687.704 80 8.5963 63.86 0 slip 0.834 1 0.8338 6.19 0.0128 ybp_select 1.032 5 0.2064 1.53 0.1756 content_level 0.825 5 0.1650 1.23 0.2939 country 2.622 4 0.6554 4.87 0.0006 slip*ybp_select 22.795 5 4.5591 33.87 0.0000 slip*discipline 47.601 8 5.9502 44.20 0.0000 slip*content_level 2.384 4 0.5960 4.43 0.0014 slip*country 0.359 4 0.0898 0.67 0.6146 ybp_select*content 4.651 11 0.4228 3.14 0.0003 ybp_select*country 12.982 20 0.6491 4.82 0.0000 content*country 23.481 13 1.8062 13.42 0.0000 Residual 5973.277 44376 0.1346
    15. 15. The Claremont Colleges LibraryBest model of purchase patterns included just afew variables and explained 10% of variance: Country of Publication Slip Sent+YBP Select (interaction effect) Slip Sent+Discipline (interaction effect) YBP Select+Discipline (interaction effect) YBP Select+Country (interaction effect) Content Level+Discipline (interaction) Content Level+Country (interaction)*simpler model included just 3 variables June 25, 2011
    16. 16. The Claremont Colleges LibraryBest model of usage patterns included just a fewvariables and explained 6% of variance: Discipline Slip Sent+Discipline YBP Select+Discipline YBP Select+Content LevelInteresting to note: Slip Sent+Discipline and YBPSelect+Discipline were both predictors forpurchase and usage. June 25, 2011
    17. 17. The Claremont Colleges LibraryA few easy changes can really improve the plan • Adjust Non-subject parameters o Limit Country of Origin • Include YBP Select • Analyze LC Class and Disciplines o Move Slips to Autoship when appropriate o Eliminate Slips when not likely to result in purchase or usage June 25, 2011
    18. 18. The Claremont Colleges Library“Likelihood of purchase” chart June 25, 2011
    19. 19. The Claremont Colleges LibraryTranslate to Profile format, part 1… June 25, 2011
    20. 20. The Claremont Colleges LibraryTranslate to Profile format, part 2… June 25, 2011
    21. 21. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThe Good… Claremont YBP Action Books % Action AUTOSHIP AUTOSHIP 1,457 3.3% SLIP SLIP 9,644 22.2% EXCLUDE EXCLUDE 26,164 60.10% Total 37,265 85.60% June 25, 2011
    22. 22. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThe Not so Bad… YBP Action Claremont Action Books % EXCLUDE SLIP - LC SUBJECT 1965 4.51% EXCLUDE SLIP - FORMAT 371 0.85% EXCLUDE SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 250 0.57% EXCLUDE SLIP - PRICE 213 0.49% EXCLUDE SLIP - BINDING 4 0.01% EXCLUDE SLIP - REFERENCE TYPE 4 0.01% EXCLUDE SLIP - PUBLISHER 1 0.00% Total 2808 6.45% June 25, 2011
    23. 23. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThe Not so Bad… YBP Action Claremont Action Books % SLIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 1284 2.95% SLIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 234 0.54% SLIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 65 0.15% SLIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 28 0.06% SLIP EXCLUDE - LANG 15 0.03% SLIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 5 0.01% Total 1631 3.75% June 25, 2011
    24. 24. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThe Not so Bad… YBP Action Claremont Action Books % AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT 136 0.00% AUTOSHIP SLIP - LC SUBJECT 104 0.16% AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - COUNTRY 69 0.01% AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - PUBLISHER 14 0.31% AUTOSHIP SLIP - FORMAT 9 0.03% AUTOSHIP SLIP - PRICE 6 0.01% AUTOSHIP SLIP - CONTENT LEVEL 5 0.02% AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - FORMAT 3 0.24% AUTOSHIP EXCLUDE - CONT LVL 1 0.01% Total 347 0.80% June 25, 2011
    25. 25. The Claremont Colleges LibraryThe Problem… YBP Action Claremont Action Books % EXCLUDE AUTOSHIP 726 1.67% SLIP AUTOSHIP 757 1.74% Total 1,483 3.41% June 25, 2011
    26. 26. The Claremont Colleges LibraryWhat went wrong June 25, 2011
    27. 27. The Claremont Colleges LibraryAsk why on the “Likelihood of purchase” chart June 25, 2011
    28. 28. The Claremont Colleges LibraryEssentials were essential… Claremont Books Profiled, 2006 All YBP Books Purchased Books Select Designation Titles Price Titles Price None 1,011 $52,256 838 $45,547 Basic-Essential 902 $33,387 528 $18,873 Basic-Recommended 9,467 $380,239 2,950 $121,557 Research-Essential 642 $46,558 389 $23,425 Research-Recommended 17,221 $1,538,120 6,152 $438,098 Specialized 3,938 $533,761 704 $61,816 Supplementary 17,100 $1,038,704 2,243 $126,674 June 25, 2011
    29. 29. The Claremont Colleges LibraryTune Up needed • Receive all “ESSENTIAL” Books, except in very obvious areas where we have no collecting history • Loosen up book/slip designations on targeted LC sub-classes • Look at non-subject parameters that may be (unintentionally) trumping LC content • Have librarians work with faculty on additional areas to include June 25, 2011
    30. 30. The Claremont Colleges Library Method Books Autoship 8,100 14% Not Ordered 34,76526% Slip 15,200 Books Published in 2010, in GOBI Tuned Up 60% Revised Plan Outcomes
    31. 31. The Claremont Colleges Library 2% Method Books 4% Autoship 11,000 Not Ordered, No Slip 28,000 22% Not Ordered, Slip 8,00016% Ordered, No Slip 1,000 Ordered, Slip 2,000 Books Published in 2006, in GOBI Best Case Outcomes 56% June 25, 2011
    32. 32. The Claremont Colleges LibraryLessons learned • Publishing output fluctuates by year o Analyze more than a year of data at a time o Especially at the more granular LC subclass levels • Profiling is an art o Use logic as much as data • Details are essential • Listen to your vendor • No need to be risk averse June 25, 2011
    33. 33. The Claremont Colleges Libraryhttp://www.zazzle.com/statistics_means_never_having_to_say_youre_certai_tshirt-235669028746970031 June 25, 2011

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