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Reserve Bank of India
                   Monetary Policy Statement 2010-11

                                       By
                                Dr. D. Subbarao
                                   Governor


        The Monetary Policy for 2010-11      turnaround after the crisis induced
is set against a rather complex economic     slowdown evidences the resilience of our
backdrop. Although the situation is more     economy and our financial sector.
reassuring than it was a quarter ago,        However, this should not divert us from
uncertainty about the shape and pace of      the need to bring back into focus the twin
global recovery persists. Private            challenges of macroeconomic stability
spending in advanced economies               and financial sector development.
continues to be constrained and inflation    3.      This statement is organised in two
remains generally subdued making it          parts. Part A covers Monetary Policy and
likely that fiscal and monetary stimuli      is divided into four Sections: Section I
in these economies will continue for an      provides an overview of global and
extended period. Emerging market             domestic macroeconomic developments;
economies (EMEs) are significantly           Section II sets out the outlook and
ahead on the recovery curve, but some        projections for growth, inflation and
of them are also facing inflationary         monetary aggregates; Section III explains
pressures.                                   the stance of monetary policy; and Section
2.       India’s growth-inflation dynamics   IV specifies the monetary measures.
are in contrast to the overall global        Part B covers Developmental and
scenario. The economy is recovering          Regulatory Policies and is organised into
rapidly from the growth slowdown but         six sections: Financial Stability (Section
inflationary pressures, which were           I), Interest Rate Policy (Section II),
triggered by supply side factors, are now    Financial Markets (Section III), Credit
developing into a wider inflationary         Delivery and Financial Inclusion (Section
process. As the domestic balance of risks    IV), Regulatory and Supervisory
shifts from growth slowdown to inflation,    Measures for Commercial Banks (Section
our policy stance must recognise and         V) and Institutional Developments
respond to this transition. While global     (Section VI).
policy co-ordination was critical in         4.     Part A of this Statement should be
dealing with a worldwide crisis, the exit    read and understood together with the
process will necessarily be differentiated   detailed review in Macroeconomic and
on the basis of the macroeconomic            Monetary Developments released
condition in each country. India’s rapid     yesterday by the Reserve Bank.
Part A. Monetary Policy
                          I. The State of the Economy

Global Economy                                   production (IIP) recorded a growth of 17.6
                                                 per cent in December 2009, 16.7 per cent
5.      The global economy continues to
                                                 in January 2010 and 15.1 per cent in
recover amidst ongoing policy support and
                                                 February 2010. The recovery has also
improving financial market conditions.
                                                 become more broad-based with 14 out of
The recovery process is led by EMEs,
                                                 17 industry groups recording accelerated
especially those in Asia, as growth
                                                 growth during April 2009-February 2010.
remains weak in advanced economies.
                                                 The sharp pick-up in the growth of the
The global economy continues to face
                                                 capital goods sector, in double digits since
several challenges such as high levels
                                                 September 2009, points to the revival of
of unemployment, which are close to
                                                 investment activity. After a continuous
10 per cent in the US and the Euro area.
                                                 decline for eleven months, imports
Despite signs of renewed activity in
                                                 expanded by 2.6 per cent in November
manufacturing and initial improvement in
                                                 2009, 32.4 per cent in December 2009,
retail sales, the prospects of economic
                                                 35.5 per cent in January 2010 and
recovery in Europe are clouded by the
                                                 66.4 per cent in February 2010. The
acute fiscal strains in some countries.
                                                 acceleration in non-oil imports since
6.      Core measures of inflation in            November 2009 further evidences
major advanced economies are still               recovery in domestic demand. After
moderating as the output gap persists and        contracting for twelve straight months,
unemployment remains high. Inflation             exports have turned around since October
expectations also remain well-anchored.          2009 reflecting revival of external
In contrast, core measures of inflation in       demand. Various lead indicators of service
EMEs, especially in Asia, have been              sector activity also suggest increased
rising. This has prompted central banks          economic activity. On the whole, the
in some EMEs to begin phasing out their          economic recovery, which began around
accommodative monetary policies.                 the second quarter of 2009-10, has since
                                                 shown sustained improvement.
Domestic Economy
                                                 9.      A sharp recovery of growth during
7.      The Reserve Bank had projected
                                                 2009-10 despite the worst south-west
the real GDP growth for 2009-10 at 7.5
                                                 monsoon since 1972 attests to the
per cent. The advance estimates released
                                                 resilience of the Indian economy. On
by the Central Statistical Organisation
                                                 the demand side, the contribution of
(CSO) in early February 2010 placed
                                                 various components to growth in 2009-10
the real GDP growth during 2009-10 at
                                                 was as follows: private consumption
7.2 per cent. The final real GDP growth
                                                 (36 per cent), government consumption
for 2009-10 may settle between 7.2 and
                                                 (14 per cent), fixed investments
7.5 per cent.
                                                 (26 per cent) and net exports (20 per cent).
8.    The uptrend in industrial activity         The monetary and fiscal stimulus
continues. The index of industrial               measures initiated in the wake of the

                                             2
global financial crisis played an important        12.     Growth in monetary and credit
role, first in mitigating the adverse impact       aggregates during 2009-10 remained
from contagion and then in ensuring that           broadly in line with the projections set out
the economy recovered quickly.                     in the Third Quarter Review in January
10.     However, the developments on               2010. Non-food bank credit expanded
the inflation front are worrisome.                 steadily during the second half of the year.
The headline inflation, as measured by             Consequently, the year-on-year non-food
year-on-year variation in Wholesale Price          credit growth recovered from its intra-year
Index (WPI), accelerated from 0.5 per cent         low of 10.3 per cent in October 2009 to
in September 2009 to 9.9 per cent in               16.9 per cent by March 2010. The increase
March 2010, exceeding the Reserve                  in bank credit was also supplemented by
Bank’s baseline projection of                      higher flow of financial resources from
8.5 per cent for March 2010 set out in the         other sources. Reserve Bank’s estimates
Third Quarter Review. Year-on-year WPI             show that the total flow of financial
non-food manufactured products (weight:            resources from banks, domestic non-bank
52.2 per cent) inflation, which was (-) 0.4        and external sources to the commercial
per cent in November 2009, turned                  sector during 2009-10 at Rs.9,71,000
marginally positive to 0.7 per cent in             crore, was higher than the amount of
December 2009 and rose sharply                     Rs.8,34,000 crore in the previous year.
thereafter to 3.3 per cent in January 2010         13.     Scheduled commercial banks
and further to 4.7 per cent in March 2010.         (SCBs) raised their deposit rates by
Year-on-year fuel price inflation also             25-50 basis points between February and
surged from (-) 0.7 per cent in November           April 2010 so far, signalling a reversal in
2009 to 5.9 per cent in December 2009,             the trend of reduction in deposit rates. On
to 8.1 per cent in January 2010 and further        the lending side, the benchmark prime
to 12.7 per cent in March 2010. Despite            lending rates (BPLRs) of SCBs have
some seasonal moderation, food price               remained unchanged since July 2009
inflation remains elevated.                        following reductions in the range of
11.      Clearly, WPI inflation is no longer       25-100 basis points between March and
driven by supply side factors alone. The           June 2009. However, data from select
contribution of non-food items to overall          banks suggest that the weighted average
WPI inflation, which was negative                  yield on advances, which is a proxy
at (-) 0.4 per cent in November 2009 rose          measure for effective lending rates, is
sharply to 53.3 per cent by March 2010.            projected to decline from 10.8 per cent in
Consumer price index (CPI) based                   March 2009 to 10.1 per cent by March
measures of inflation were in the range of         2010. The Base Rate system of loan
14.9-16.9 per cent in January/February             pricing, which will replace the BPLR
2010. Thus, inflationary pressures have            system with effect from July 1, 2010, is
accentuated since the Third Quarter                expected to facilitate better pricing of
Review in January 2010. What was                   loans, enhance transparency in lending
initially a process driven by food prices          rates and improve the assessment of
has now become more generalised.                   monetary policy transmission.

                                               3
14.     Financial markets functioned               of active liquidity management measures
normally through the year. Surplus                 such as front-loading of the borrowing
liquidity that prevailed throughout the            calendar, unwinding of securities under
year declined towards the end of the year          the market stabilisation scheme (MSS)
consistent with the monetary policy                and open market operation (OMO)
stance. The Reserve Bank absorbed about            purchases.
Rs.1,00,000 crore on a daily average basis
                                                   17.     The Union Budget for 2010-11
under the liquidity adjustment facility
                                                   has begun the process of fiscal
(LAF) during the current financial year up
                                                   consolidation by budgeting lower fiscal
to February 12, 2010, i.e., before the first
                                                   deficit (5.5 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 as
stage of increase in the cash reserve ratio
(CRR) came into effect. During February            compared with 6.7 per cent in 2009-10)
27- March 31, 2010, the average daily              and revenue deficit (4.0 per cent of GDP
absorption of surplus liquidity declined to        in 2010-11 as compared with 5.3 per cent
around Rs. 38,200 crore reflecting the             in 2009-10). As a result, the net market
increase in the CRR, year-end advance tax          borrowing requirement of the Central
outflows and higher credit demand from             Government in 2010-11 is budgeted lower
the private sector. However, as the overall        at Rs.3,45,010 crore as compared with that
liquidity remained in surplus, overnight           in the previous year.
interest rates generally stayed close to the       18.     Historically, fiscal deficits have
lower bound of the LAF rate corridor.              been financed by a combination of
15.     The large market borrowing by the          market borrowings and other sources.
Government put upward pressure on the              However, in 2009-10 and 2010-11,
yields on government securities during             reliance on market borrowings for
2009-10. However, this was contained by            financing the fiscal deficit increased in
active liquidity management by the                 relative terms. The large market
Reserve Bank. Lower credit demand by               borrowing in 2009-10 was facilitated by
the private sector also cushioned the yield.       the unwinding of MSS securities and
Equity markets generally remained firm             OMO purchases, as a result of which fresh
during the year with intermittent                  issuance of securities constituted 63.0 per
corrections in line with the global pattern.       cent of the total budgeted market
Resource mobilisation through public               borrowings. However in 2010-11, almost
issues increased sharply. Housing prices           the entire budgeted borrowings will be
rebounded during 2009-10. According to             funded by fresh issuance of securities.
the Reserve Bank’s survey, they surpassed          Therefore, notwithstanding the lower
their pre-crisis peak levels in Mumbai.            budgeted net borrowings, fresh issuance
16.     During 2009-10, the Central                of securities in 2010-11 will be
Government raised Rs.3,98,411 crore (net)          Rs.3,42,300 crore, higher than the
through the market borrowing programme             corresponding figure of Rs.2,51,000 crore
while the state governments mobilised              last year. The large government borrowing
Rs.1,14,883 crore (net). This large                in 2009-10 was also facilitated by sluggish
borrowing was managed in a non-                    private credit demand and comfortable
disruptive manner through a combination            liquidity conditions. However, going

                                               4
forward, private credit demand is expected         the corresponding period last year.
to pick up further. Meanwhile, inflationary        Consequently, on a balance of payments
pressures have also made it imperative for         basis (i.e., excluding valuation effects),
the Reserve Bank to absorb surplus                 foreign exchange reserves increased by
liquidity from the system. Thus, managing          US$ 11 billion as against a decline of US$
the borrowings of the Government during            20 billion during the corresponding period
2010-11 will be a bigger challenge than it         a year ago. Foreign exchange reserves
was last year.                                     stood at US$ 279 billion as
                                                   on March 31, 2010. The six-currency
19.    The current account deficit during          trade-based real effective exchange rate
April-December 2009 was US$ 30 billion             (REER) (1993-94=100) appreciated by
as compared with US$ 28 billion for the            15.5 per cent during 2009-10 up to
corresponding period of 2008. Net capital          February as against 10.4 per cent
inflows at US$ 42 billion were also                depreciation in the corresponding period
substantially higher than US$ 7 billion in         of the previous year.


                            II. Outlook and Projections
Global Outlook                                     commercial real estate is declining.
Growth                                             Growth in the euro area, on a quarter-on-
                                                   quarter basis, was 0.1 per cent in Q4 of
20.     In its World Economic Outlook              2009. It may remain moderate in 2010
Update for January 2010, the International         because of the ongoing process of balance
Monetary Fund (IMF) projected                      sheet adjustment in various sectors,
that global growth will recover from (-) 0.8       dampened investment, low capacity
per cent in 2009 to 3.9 per cent in 2010
                                                   utilisation and low consumption. Though
and further to 4.3 per cent in 2011.
                                                   exports are improving and the decline in
Organisation for Economic Co-operation
                                                   business fixed investment is moderating,
and Development’s (OECD) composite
                                                   several euro-zone governments are faced
leading indicators (CLIs) in February
                                                   with high and unsustainable fiscal
2010 continued to signal an improvement
                                                   imbalances which could have implications
in economic activity for the advanced
                                                   for medium and long-term interest rates.
economies. Three major factors that have
contributed to the improved global                 In Japan, improved prospects on account
outlook are the massive monetary and               of exports have been offset by the
fiscal support, improvement in confidence          levelling off of public investment and rise
and a strong recovery in EMEs.                     in unemployment.

21.    US GDP rose by 5.6 per cent on              22.    Amongst EMEs, China continues
an annualised basis during Q4 of 2009.             to grow at a rapid pace, led mainly by
However, household spending remains                domestic demand. Malaysia and Thailand
constrained by high unemployment at                have recovered to register positive growth
9.7 per cent. Though business fixed                in the second half of 2009. Indonesia
investment is turning around and housing           recorded positive growth throughout
starts are picking up, investment in               2009.

                                               5
Inflation                                                    business expectation index (BEI) showed
                                                             seasonal moderation from 120.6 in Q4 of
23.      Globally, headline inflation rates
                                                             2009-10 to 119.8 in Q1 of 2010-11, it was
rose between November 2009 and January
                                                             much higher in comparison with the level
2010, softened in February 2010 on
                                                             of 96.4 a year ago. The improved
account of moderation of food, metal and
                                                             performance of the industrial sector is also
crude prices and again rose marginally in
                                                             reflected in the improved profitability in
some major economies in March 2010.
                                                             the corporate sector. Service sector
Core inflation continued to decline in the
                                                             activities have shown buoyancy,
US on account of substantial resource
                                                             especially during the latter half of
slack. Inflation expectations in advanced
                                                             2009-10. The leading indicators of various
countries also remain stable. Though
                                                             sectors such as tourist arrivals,
inflation has started rising in several
                                                             commercial vehicles production and
EMEs, India is a significant outlier with
                                                             traffic at major ports show significant
inflation rates much higher than in other
                                                             improvement. A sustained increase in bank
EMEs.
                                                             credit and in the financial resources raised
Domestic Outlook                                             by the commercial sector from non-bank
Growth                                                       sources also suggest that the recovery is
                                                             gaining momentum.
24.      The Indian economy is firmly on
the recovery path. Exports have been                         26.    On balance, under the assumption
expanding since October 2009, a trend                        of a normal monsoon and sustenance of
                                                             good performance of the industrial and
that is expected to continue. The industrial
                                                             services sectors on the back of rising
sector recovery is increasingly becoming
                                                             domestic and external demand, for policy
broad-based and is expected to take firmer
                                                             purposes the baseline projection of real
hold going forward on the back of rising
                                                             GDP growth for 2010-11 is placed at 8.0
domestic and external demand.
                                                             per cent with an upside bias (Chart 1).
25.    Surveys generally support the
                                                             Inflation
perception of a consolidating recovery.
According to the Reserve Bank’s quarterly                    27.   Headline WPI inflation, which
industrial outlook survey, although the                      moderated in the first half of 2009-10,

                               Chart 1: Projection of GDP Growth for 2010-11
                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                           GDP Growth (%)




                                                                                                                      9

                                                                                                                      8

                                                                                                                      7

                                                                                                                      6
                                                                                                            2010-11
                                                                                     2009-10
2005-06




                     2006-07




                                           2007-08




                                                               2008-09




          Baseline Projection      50 Per cent CI    70 Per cent CI      90 Per cent CI        CI - confidence interval



                                                         6
firmed up in the second half of the year. It                         of seasonal moderation in food prices,
accelerated from 1.5 per cent in October                             overall food inflation continues at an
2009 to 9.9 per cent by March 2010. The                              elevated level. It is likely that structural
deficient south-west monsoon rainfall                                shortage of certain agricultural
accentuated the pressure on food prices.                             commodities such as pulses, edible oils
This, combined with the firming up of                                and milk could reduce the pace of food
global commodity prices from their low                               price moderation. Second, the firming up
levels in early 2009 and incipient demand                            of global commodity prices poses upside
side pressures, led to acceleration in the                           risks to inflation. Third, the Reserve
overall inflation rate – both of the WPI                             Bank’s industrial outlook survey shows
and the CPIs.                                                        that corporates are increasingly regaining
                                                                     their pricing power in many sectors. As
28.     The Reserve Bank’s baseline                                  the recovery gains further momentum,
projection of WPI inflation for March                                the demand pressures are expected to
2010 was 8.5 per cent. However, some                                 accentuate. Fourth, the Reserve Bank’s
subsequent developments on both supply                               quarterly inflation expectations survey for
and demand sides pushed up inflation.                                households indicates that household
Enhancement of excise duty and                                       inflation expectations have remained at an
restoration of the basic customs duty on                             elevated level.
crude petroleum and petroleum products
and the increase in prices of iron ore and                           30.    Going forward, three major
coal had a significant impact on WPI                                 uncertainties cloud the outlook for
inflation. In addition, demand side                                  inflation. First, the prospects of the
pressures also re-emerged as reflected in                            monsoon in 2010-11 are not yet clear.
the sharp increase in non-food                                       Second, crude prices continue to be
manufactured products inflation from 0.7                             volatile. Third, there is evidence of
                                                                     demand side pressures building up. On
per cent to 4.7 per cent between December
                                                                     balance, keeping in view domestic
2009 and March 2010.
                                                                     demand-supply balance and the global
29.    There have been significant                                   trend in commodity prices, the baseline
changes in the drivers of inflation in recent                        projection for WPI inflation for March
months. First, while there are some signs                            2011 is placed at 5.5 per cent (Chart 2).


                               Chart 2: Projected Path of Y-o-Y WPI Inflation
                                                                                                                                  15.0
                                                                                                                                  12.5
                                                                                                                                         Inflation Rate (%)




                                                                                                                                  10.0
                                                                                                                                  7.5
                                                                                                                                  5.0
                                                                                                                                  2.5
                                                                                                                                  0.0
                                                                                                                         Mar-11
 Mar-08


          Jun-08


                   Sep-08


                            Dec-08


                                      Mar-09


                                               Jun-09


                                                        Sep-09


                                                                     Dec-09




                                                                                                                                  -2.5
                                                                              Mar-10


                                                                                         Jun-10


                                                                                                   Sep-10


                                                                                                                Dec-10




          Baseline Projection        50 Per cent CI     70 Per cent CI            90 Per cent CI            CI - confidence interval



                                                                 7
31.     It would be the endeavour of the           policy purposes, M3 growth for 2010-11
Reserve Bank to ensure price stability and         is placed at 17.0 per cent. Consistent with
anchor inflation expectations. In pursuit          this, aggregate deposits of SCBs are
of these objectives, the Reserve Bank              projected to grow by 18.0 per cent. The
will continue to monitor an array of               growth in non-food credit of SCBs is
measures of inflation, both overall and            placed at 20.0 per cent. As always, these
disaggregated components, in the context           numbers are provided as indicative
of the evolving macroeconomic situation            projections and not as targets.
to assess the underlying inflationary
pressures.                                         Risk Factors

32.    Notwithstanding the current                 35.     While the indicative projections of
inflation scenario, it is important to             growth and inflation for 2010-11 may
recognise that in the last decade, the             appear reassuring, the following major
average inflation rate, measured both in           downside risks to growth and upside risks
terms of WPI and CPI, had moderated to             to inflation need to be recognised:
about 5 per cent from the historical trend         First, uncertainty persists about the pace
rate of about 7.5 per cent. Against this           and shape of global recovery. Fiscal
background, the conduct of monetary                stimulus measures played a major role in
policy will continue to condition and              the recovery process in many countries by
contain perception of inflation in the range       compensating for the fall in private
of 4.0-4.5 per cent. This will be in line          demand. Private demand in major
with the medium-term objective of 3.0              advanced economies continues to be weak
per cent inflation consistent with India’s         due to high unemployment rates, weak
broader integration into the global                income growth and tight credit conditions.
economy.                                           There is a risk that once the impact of
Monetary Aggregates                                public spending wanes, the recovery
                                                   process will be stalled. Therefore, the
33.     During 2009-10, money supply
                                                   prospects of sustaining the recovery hinge
(M 3) growth decelerated from over 20.0
per cent at the beginning of the financial         strongly on the revival of private
year to 16.4 per cent in February 2010             consumption and investment. While
before increasing to 16.8 per cent by              recovery in India is expected to be driven
March 2010, slightly above the Reserve             predominantly by domestic demand,
Bank’s indicative projection of 16.5               significant trade, financial and sentiment
per cent. This was reflected in non-food           linkages indicate that a sluggish and
credit growth of 16.9 per cent, above the          uncertain global environment can
indicative projection of 16.0 per cent.            adversely impact the Indian economy.

34.     Keeping in view the need to                Second, if the global recovery does gain
balance the resource demand to meet                momentum, commodity and energy prices,
credit offtake by the private sector and           which have been on the rise during the last
government borrowings, monetary                    one year, may harden further. Increase in
projections have been made consistent              global commodity prices could, therefore,
with the growth and inflation outlook. For         add to inflationary pressures.


                                               8
Third, from the perspective of both              markets, are getting increasingly
domestic demand and inflation                    concerned about the external sector
management, the 2010 south-west                  dynamics.
monsoon is a critical factor. The current        36.     Our exchange rate policy is not
assessment of softening of domestic              guided by a fixed or pre-announced target
inflation around mid-2010 is contingent          or band. Our policy has been to retain the
on a normal monsoon and moderation in            flexibility to intervene in the market to
food prices. Any unfavourable pattern in         manage excessive volatility and
spatial and temporal distribution of             disruptions to the macroeconomic
rainfall could exacerbate food inflation.        situation. Recent experience has
In the current context, an unfavourable          underscored the issue of large and often
monsoon could also impose a fiscal               volatile capital flows influencing
burden and dampen rural consumer and             exchange rate movements against the
investment demand.                               grain of economic fundamentals and
Fourth, it is unlikely that the large            current account balances. There is,
monetary expansion in advanced                   therefore, a need to be vigilant against the
economies will be unwound in the near            build-up of sharp and volatile exchange
future. Accommodative monetary policies          rate movements and its potentially
in the advanced economies, coupled with          harmful impact on the real economy.
better growth prospects in EMEs                  37.      The resumption of the process of
including India, are expected to trigger         fiscal consolidation has been a significant
large capital flows into the EMEs. While         positive development. This will help avoid
the absorptive capacity of the Indian            crowding out of private sector credit
economy has been increasing, excessive           demand and facilitate better monetary
flows pose a challenge for exchange rate         management. However, the overall size of
and monetary management. The rupee has           the government borrowing programme is
appreciated sharply in real terms over the       still very large and can exert pressure on
past one year. Pressures from higher             interest rates. Going forward, fiscal
capital flows combined with the prevailing       consolidation has to shift from one-off
rate of inflation will only reinforce that       gains to structural improvements on both
tendency. Both exporters, whose prospects        tax and expenditure sides, and focus
are just beginning to turn, and producers,       increasingly on the quality of fiscal
who compete with imports in domestic             consolidation.

                               III. The Policy Stance

38.     In the wake of the global economic       economy and ensured that the economy
crisis, the Reserve Bank pursued                 started recovering ahead of most other
an accommodative monetary policy                 economies. However, in view of the rising
beginning mid-September 2008. This               food inflation and the risk of it impinging
policy instilled confidence in market            on inflationary expectations, the Reserve
participants, mitigated the adverse impact       Bank embarked on the first phase of exit
of the global financial crisis on the            from the expansionary monetary policy by

                                             9
terminating some sector-specific liquidity          can complicate the inflation outlook
facilities and restoring the statutory              and impair inflationary expectations,
liquidity ratio (SLR) of scheduled                  particularly given the recent escalation in
commercial banks to its pre-crisis level in         the prices of non-food manufactured
the Second Quarter Review of October                items. Despite the increase of 25 basis
2009.                                               points each in the repo rate and the reverse
39.    The process was carried forward              repo rate, our real policy rates are still
by the second phase of exit when the                negative. With the recovery now firmly in
Reserve Bank announced a 75 basis points            place, we need to move in a calibrated
increase in the CRR in the Third Quarter            manner in the direction of normalising our
Review of January 2010. As inflation                policy instruments.
continued to increase, driven significantly         Second, inflationary pressures have
by the prices of non-food manufactured              accentuated in the recent period. More
goods, and exceeded the Reserve Bank’s              importantly, inflation, which was earlier
baseline projection of 8.5 per cent for             driven entirely by supply side factors, is
March 2010 (made in the Third Quarter               now getting increasingly generalised.
Review), the Reserve Bank responded                 There is already some evidence that the
expeditiously with a mid-cycle increase             pricing power of corporates has returned.
of 25 basis points each in the policy repo          With the growth expected to accelerate
rate and the reverse repo rate under the            further in the next year, capacity
LAF on March 19, 2010.                              constraints will re-emerge, which are
40.    The monetary policy response                 expected to exert further pressure on
in India since October 2009 has                     prices. Inflation expectations also remain
been calibrated to India’s specific                 at an elevated level. There is, therefore, a
macroeconomic conditions. Accordingly,              need to ensure that demand side inflation
our policy stance for 2010-11 has been              does not become entrenched.
guided by the following three major                 Third, notwithstanding lower budgeted
considerations:                                     government borrowings in 2010-11 than
First, recovery is consolidating. The quick         in the year before, fresh issuance of
rebound of growth during 2009-10 despite            securities will be 36.3 per cent higher than
failure of monsoon rainfall suggests that           in the previous year. This presents a
the Indian economy has become resilient.            dilemma for the Reserve Bank. While
Growth in 2010-11 is projected to be                monetary policy considerations demand
higher and more broad-based than in                 that surplus liquidity should be absorbed,
2009-10. In its Third Quarter Review in             debt management considerations warrant
January 2010, the Reserve Bank had                  supportive liquidity conditions. The
indicated that our main monetary policy             Reserve Bank, therefore, has to do a
instruments are at levels that are more             fine balancing act and ensure that while
consistent with a crisis situation than with        absorbing excess liquidity, the
a fast recovering economy. In the                   government borrowing programme is not
emerging scenario, lower policy rates               hampered.


                                               10
41.     Against this backdrop, the stance           ∑   Actively manage liquidity to ensure
of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank                  that the growth in demand for credit
is intended to:                                         by both the private and public
                                                        sectors is satisfied in a non-disruptive
∑     Anchor inflation expectations,
                                                        way.
      while being prepared to respond
      appropriately, swiftly and effectively        ∑   Maintain an interest rate regime
      to further build-up of inflationary               consistent with price, output and
      pressures.                                        financial stability.

                               IV. Monetary Measures

42.    On the basis of the current                      (NDTL) effective the fortnight
assessment and in line with the policy                  beginning April 24, 2010.
stance as outlined in Section III, the
                                                    47.     As a result of the increase in the
Reserve Bank announces the following
                                                    CRR, about Rs. 12,500 crore of excess
policy measures:
                                                    liquidity will be absorbed from the system.
Bank Rate
                                                    48.     The Reserve Bank will continue to
43.     The Bank Rate has been retained             monitor macroeconomic conditions,
at 6.0 per cent.                                    particularly the price situation, closely and
                                                    take further action as warranted.
Repo Rate
                                                    Expected Outcomes
44.      It has been decided to:
                                                    49.    The expected outcomes of the
∑     increase the repo rate under the
                                                    actions are:
      Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF)
      by 25 basis points from 5.0 per cent          (i) Inflation will be contained and
      to 5.25 per cent with immediate                   inflationary expectations will be
      effect.                                           anchored.
Reverse Repo Rate                                   (ii) The recovery process will be
                                                         sustained.
45.      It has been decided to:
                                                    (iii) Government borrowing requirements
∑     increase the reverse repo rate under
                                                          and the private credit demand will be
      the LAF by 25 basis points from 3.5
                                                          met.
      per cent to 3.75 per cent with
      immediate effect.                             (iv) Policy instruments will be further
                                                         aligned in a manner consistent with
Cash Reserve Ratio
                                                         the evolving state of the economy.
46.      It has been decided to:
                                                    First Quarter Review of Monetary
∑     increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR)         Policy 2010-11
      of scheduled banks by 25 basis points
                                                    50.   The First Quarter Review of
      from 5.75 per cent to 6.0 per cent of
                                                    Monetary Policy for 2010-11 will be
      their net demand and time liabilities
                                                    announced on July 27, 2010.

                                               11
Part B. Developmental and Regulatory Policies
51.     The global financial crisis has             maintain financial stability. This process
underscored the importance of pursuing              has now become more intensive with a
financial sector policies in the broader            focus on drawing appropriate lessons from
context of financial stability and to serve         the global financial crisis and putting in
the interests of the real economy. A major          place a regulatory regime that is alert to
lesson is that no indicator or action is            possible build-up of financial imbalances.
foolproof, which points to the need for             The focus of the Reserve Bank’s
continuous monitoring, regular review of            regulation will continue to be to improve
processes, proactive oversight and                  the efficiency of the banking sector
pre-emptive actions. Thus, periodic                 while maintaining financial stability.
assessment of regulatory comforts and               Simultaneously, it will vigorously pursue
effective supervision are critical elements         the financial inclusion agenda to make
for developing the financial sector on a            financial sector development more
sound footing.                                      inclusive.
52.    Over the last several years, the             53.     A synopsis of the action taken on
Reserve Bank has undertaken                         the past policy announcements together
wide-ranging financial sector reforms to            with a list of fresh policy measures is set
improve financial intermediation and                out below.


                                 I. Financial Stability

Financial Stability Report                          stability standpoint. The FSR observed
                                                    that the banks remained well-capitalised
54.     As announced in the Annual Policy
                                                    with higher core capital and sustainable
Statement of April 2009, the Reserve Bank
                                                    financial leverage. Further, stress tests for
established a Financial Stability Unit in
                                                    credit and market risk confirmed banks’
August 2009 for carrying out periodic
                                                    resilience to withstand high stress. The
stress testing and for preparing financial
                                                    FSR also emphasised the need for
stability reports.
                                                    evolving a stronger supervisory regime for
55.     The first Financial Stability Report        systemically important non-deposit taking
(FSR) was released on March 25,                     non-banking financial companies
2010. This Report is an attempt at                  (NBFCs-ND-SI) and strengthening the
institutionalising the focus on financial           monitoring and oversight framework for
stability and making it an integral part of         systemically important financial
the policy framework. The first FSR                 conglomerates. Overall risk to financial
makes an assessment of the strength of the          stability was found to be limited.
financial sector, with particular focus on          However, the recent financial turmoil has
banks, and has raised some concerns,                clearly demonstrated that financial
including rising inflation, high                    stability cannot be taken for granted, and
government borrowings and likely surge              that the maintenance of financial stability
in capital flows, from the financial                requires constant vigilance, especially

                                               12
during normal times to detect and mitigate        forward, the Financial Stability Reports
any incipient signs of instability. Going         will be published half-yearly.

                              II. Interest Rate Policy
Base Rate: Introduction                           Group and the suggestions from various
                                                  stakeholders, the draft guidelines on Base
56.    As indicated in the Annual Policy
                                                  Rate were placed on the Reserve Bank’s
Statement of April 2009, the Reserve Bank
                                                  website in February 2010.
constituted a Working Group on
Benchmark Prime Lending Rate                      57.     In the light of the comments/
(Chairman: Shri Deepak Mohanty) to                suggestions received, it has been decided
review the present benchmark prime                to mandate banks to switch over to the
lending rate (BPLR) system and suggest            system of Base Rate from July 1, 2010.
changes to make credit pricing more               Guidelines on the Base Rate system were
transparent. The Working Group                    issued on April 9, 2010. It is expected that
submitted its report in October 2009 and          the Base Rate system will facilitate better
the same was placed on the Reserve                pricing of loans, enhance transparency in
Bank’s website for public comments.               lending rates and improve the assessment
Based on the recommendations of the               of transmission of monetary policy.


                              III. Financial Markets

Financial Market Products                         Regulation    of   Non-Convertible
Interest Rate Futures                             Debentures (NCDs) of Maturity of Less
                                                  than One Year
58.    The Interest Rate Futures contract
on 10-year notional coupon bearing                59.    As indicated in the Second Quarter
Government of India security was                  Review of October 2009, the draft
introduced on August 31, 2009. Based              guidelines on the regulation of
on the market feedback and the                    non-convertible debentures (NCDs)
recommendations of the Technical                  of maturity of less than one year
Advisory Committee (TAC) on the Money,            were placed on the Reserve Bank’s
Foreign Exchange and Government                   website on November 3, 2009 for
Securities Markets, it is proposed:               comments/feedback. The comments/
                                                  feedback received were examined and also
∑   to introduce Interest Rate Futures on         deliberated by the TAC on the Money,
    5-year and 2-year notional coupon             Foreign Exchange and Government
    bearing securities and 91-day
                                                  Securities Markets. Accordingly, it is
    Treasury Bills. The RBI-SEBI
                                                  proposed:
    Standing Technical Committee
    will finalise the product design              ∑   to issue the final guidelines on
    and operational modalities for                    the issuance of NCDs of maturity less
    introduction of these products on the             than one year by end-June 2010.
    exchanges.

                                             13
Introduction of Credit Default Swaps                 ∑   to permit the recognised stock
(CDS)                                                    exchanges to introduce plain vanilla
60.     As indicated in the Second Quarter               currency options on spot US Dollar/
Review of October 2009, the Reserve                      Rupee exchange rate for residents.
Bank constituted an internal Working                 63.    The risk management and
Group to finalise the operational                    operational guidelines will be finalised by
framework for introduction of plain                  the RBI-SEBI Standing Technical
vanilla over-the-counter (OTC) single-               Committee.
name CDS for corporate bonds for
                                                     Separate Trading for Registered Interest
resident entities subject to appropriate
                                                     and Principal of Securities (STRIPS):
safeguards. The Group is in the process
                                                     Status
of finalising a framework suitable for the
Indian market, based on consultations with           64.    As indicated in the Annual Policy
market participants/experts and study of             Statement for 2009-10, the draft
international experience. Accordingly, it            guidelines on stripping/reconstitution of
is proposed:                                         government securities prepared in
∑   to place the draft report of the internal        consultation with market participants were
    Working Group on the Reserve                     placed on the Reserve Bank’s website on
    Bank’s website by end-July 2010.                 May 14, 2009 for comments and feedback.
                                                     Taking into consideration the feedback
Guidelines on Forex Derivatives                      received on the draft guidelines, the final
61.      As indicated in the Second Quarter          guidelines on stripping/reconstitution of
Review of October 2009, the draft                    government securities were issued on
guidelines on OTC foreign exchange                   March 25, 2010. The guidelines, which
derivatives were placed on the Reserve               came into effect from April 1, 2010, will
Bank’s website on November 12, 2009 for              enable market participants to strip/
public comments. The feedback received               reconstitute eligible Government of India
from stakeholders and industry                       dated securities through the negotiated
associations was discussed in the meeting            dealing system (NDS) subject to certain
of the TAC on the Money, Foreign                     terms and conditions.
Exchange and Government Securities
                                                     Corporate Bond Market
Markets. On the basis of the discussions,
it is proposed:                                      65.    In the recent period, the Reserve
                                                     Bank initiated several measures to develop
∑   to issue final guidelines by end-June
                                                     the corporate bond market as detailed
    2010.
                                                     below:
Introduction of Exchange-Traded
                                                     (i) To facilitate settlement of secondary
Currency Option Contracts
                                                         market trades in corporate bonds
62.     Currently, residents in India are                on a delivery versus payment-1
permitted to trade in futures contracts in               (DVP-1) basis on the Real Time Gross
four currency pairs on two recognised                    Settlement       (RTGS)       system,
stock exchanges. In order to expand the                  the National Securities Clearing
menu of tools for hedging currency risk,                 Corporation Limited (NSCCL) and
it has been decided:                                     the Indian Clearing Corporation

                                                14
Limited (ICCL) have been permitted                  years under the held to maturity
    to maintain transitory pooling                      (HTM) category.
    accounts with the Reserve Bank.
                                                    Investment      in   Unlisted     Non-SLR
    Further, guidelines have been issued            Securities
    to all Reserve Bank regulated entities
    to mandatorily clear and settle all             67.     In terms of extant instructions,
    OTC trades in corporate bonds using             banks’ investments in unlisted non-SLR
    the above arrangement with effect               securities should not exceed 10 per cent
    from December 1, 2009.                          of their total investments in non-SLR
                                                    securities as on March 31 of the previous
(ii) To facilitate the development of an            year. Since there is a time lag between
     active repo market in corporate bonds,         issuance and listing of security, banks may
     the guidelines for repo transactions in        not be able to participate in primary issues
     corporate debt securities were issued          of non-SLR securities, which are proposed
     on January 8, 2010. The guidelines,            to be listed but not listed at the time of
     which came into force with effect              subscription. In view of the above, it is
     from March 1, 2010, will enable repo           proposed that:
     in listed corporate debt securities
     rated ‘AA’ or above. Fixed Income              ∑   investment in non-SLR debt securities
     Money Market and Derivatives                       (both primary and secondary market)
     Association of India (FIMMDA) is                   by banks where the security is
     working on the development of                      proposed to be listed on the
     reporting platform and also on the                 Exchange(s) may be considered as
     Global Master Repo Agreement to                    investment in listed security at the
     operationalise the repo in corporate               time of making investment.
     bonds.                                         68.     If such security, however, is not
Non-SLR Bonds of companies engaged in               listed within the period specified, the same
infrastructure: Valuation                           will be reckoned for the 10 per cent limit
                                                    specified for unlisted non-SLR securities.
66.     At present, banks’ investments in           In case such investment included under
non-SLR bonds are classified either under           unlisted non-SLR securities lead to a
held for trading (HFT) or available for sale        breach of the 10 per cent limit, the bank
(AFS) category and subjected to ‘mark to            would not be allowed to make further
market’ requirements. Considering that              investment in non-SLR securities (both
the long-term bonds issued by companies             primary and secondary market, including
engaged in infrastructure activities are            unrated bonds issued for financing
generally held by banks for a long period           infrastructure activities) till such time the
and not traded and also with a view to              limit is reached.
incentivising banks to invest in such
                                                    Financial Market Infrastructure
bonds, it is proposed:
                                                    Reporting Platform for Certificates of
∑   to allow banks to classify their
                                                    Deposit (CDs) and Commercial Papers
    investments in non-SLR bonds
                                                    (CPs)
    issued by companies engaged in
    infrastructure activities and having a          69.  Although there is a large CD and
    minimum residual maturity of seven              CP market, there is currently little

                                               15
transparency in the secondary market                regulation, surveillance and transparency
trades. In order to promote transparency            purposes, it is necessary to extend the
in the secondary market transactions for            existing reporting arrangement in respect
CDs and CPs, it is proposed:                        of IRS to all OTC interest rate and forex
                                                    derivatives. Accordingly, it is proposed:
∑   to introduce a reporting platform for
    all secondary market transactions in            ∑   to set up a Working Group consisting
    CDs and CPs.                                        of members of the Reserve Bank, the
                                                        CCIL and market participants to work
70.     FIMMDA has been requested to
                                                        out the modalities for an efficient,
start work on developing a platform                     single point reporting mechanism for
similar to its existing platform for                    all OTC interest rate and forex
corporate bonds. Eventually, once the                   derivative transactions.
reporting system stabilises, a settlement
mechanism similar to the one introduced             Revision of Repo Accounting: Status
for the OTC corporate bonds may be put              72.     As indicated in the Annual Policy
in place.                                           Statement of April 2009, the revised
Reporting    of      OTC       Derivative           guidelines for accounting of repo/reverse
Transactions                                        repo transactions were issued by the
                                                    Reserve Bank on March 23, 2010. The
71.    The issue of transparency and the            revised accounting guidelines capture
need for information repositories for               the economic essence of repo as a
transactions in OTC derivatives have                collateralised lending and borrowing
assumed sharper focus in the post-crisis            instrument and not as outright sale and
scenario. In India, centralised reporting of        purchase. The revised accounting
OTC trades in interest rate derivatives             guidelines have been made applicable to
[interest rate swap (IRS)/forward rate              market repo transactions with effect from
agreements (FRAs)] commenced in                     April 1, 2010. These accounting norms
August 2007 on the Clearing Corporation             will, however, not apply to repo/reverse
of India Limited (CCIL) platform. To                repo transactions conducted under the
capture the trade data pertaining to all            Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) with
OTC derivative transactions for                     the Reserve Bank.


                   IV. Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion

Credit Flow to the MSE Sector                       ∑   to mandate banks not to insist on
                                                        collateral security in case of loans up
Credit Guarantee Scheme for MSEs                        to Rs.10 lakh as against the present
73.    Following the recommendations of                 limit of Rs.5 lakh extended to all units
the Working Group (Chairman: Shri V. K.                 of the micro and small enterprises
Sharma) on credit guarantee scheme of the               (MSEs) sector.
Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro               High Level Task Force on MSMEs
and Small Enterprises (CGFTMSE), it is
                                                    74.    A High Level Task Force was
proposed:                                           constituted by the Government of India

                                               16
(Chairman: Shri T.K.A. Nair) to consider            Co-operative Credit Institutions
various issues raised by micro, small               (Chairman: Prof.A.Vaidyanathan) and in
and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and                  consultation with the state governments,
draw up an agenda for action. The Task              the Government of India had approved a
Force submitted its Report on January 30,           package for revival of the short-term
2010 to the Government of India. The Task           rural co-operative credit structure. As
Force recommended several measures                  envisaged in the package, so far 25 States
having a bearing on the functioning of              have entered into Memoranda
MSMEs, viz., credit, marketing, labour,             of Understanding (MoU) with the
exit policy, infrastructure/technology/skill        Government of India and the National
development and taxation. In particular,            Bank for Agriculture and Rural
it recommended that: (i) all scheduled              Development (NABARD). Fourteen
commercial banks should achieve a 20 per            States have made necessary amendments
cent year-on-year growth in credit to               to their respective Co-operative Societies
micro and small enterprises to ensure               Acts. As on December 31, 2009, an
enhanced credit flow; (ii) any shortfall in         aggregate amount of about Rs.7,000 crore
the achievement of sub-target of 60 per             was released by the NABARD as
cent for lending to micro enterprises of            Government of India’s share under the
the total advances granted to the micro and         package to primary agricultural credit
small enterprises, would also be taken into         societies (PACS) in 11 States.
account for the purpose of allocating
                                                    Financial Inclusion through Grass-root
amounts for contribution to rural
                                                    Co-operatives
infrastructure development fund (RIDF)
or any other Fund with other financial              77.    There is a need for better
institutions as specified by the Reserve            understanding of the grass-root level
Bank, with effect from April 1, 2010; and           rural co-operatives, which can play a
(iii) all scheduled commercial banks                more effective role as vehicles of
should achieve a 15 per cent annual                 financial inclusion. Besides, a large
growth in the number of micro enterprise            number of PACS, large adivasi multi-
accounts.                                           purpose co-operative societies (LAMPS)
                                                    and farmers’ service societies (FSS), a
75.     Banks are urged to keep in
                                                    number of thrift and credit co-operative
view the recommendations made by the
                                                    societies have been set up under the
Task Force and take effective steps to
                                                    parallel Self-Reliant Co-operative
increase the flow of credit to the MSE
                                                    Societies Acts in some States. There is a
sector, particularly to micro enterprises.
                                                    need to understand the operations of
The Reserve Bank will monitor the
                                                    these co-operative societies with
performance of banks in this regard.
                                                    reference to their membership profile,
Rural Co-operative Banks                            management structure, range of services
                                                    being offered by them, savings mobilised
Revival of Rural Co-operative Credit                from members/non-members, percentage
Structure                                           of non-borrower members, credit
76.    Based on the recommendations                 extended to tenant farmers, oral lessees
of the Task Force on Revival of Rural               and agricultural labourers to appreciate

                                               17
the strengths of the well-functioning                over 2,000. The Reserve Bank will discuss
societies and their potential as an                  FIPs with individual banks and monitor
effective vehicle of financial inclusion.            their implementation.
It is, therefore, proposed:
                                                     Business Correspondents: Relaxations
∑   to constitute a Committee
                                                     79.     Under the extant guidelines on the
    comprising representatives from the
                                                     business correspondent (BC) model, only
    Reserve Bank, the NABARD and a
                                                     certain select categories of individuals are
    few State Governments to study the
                                                     permitted to be engaged as BCs. With a
    functioning of well-run PACS,
                                                     view to providing more flexibility to
    LAMPS, FSS and thrift and credit co-
                                                     banks, it is proposed:
    operative societies set up under the
    parallel Self-Reliant Co-operative               ∑   to permit banks to engage any
    Societies Acts to gather information                 individual, including those operating
    on their working and assess their                    Common Service Centres (CSCs), as
    potential to contribute to financial                 BC, subject to banks’ comfort level
    inclusion.                                           and their carrying out suitable due
                                                         diligence.
Financial Inclusion Plan for Banks
                                                     80.     Operational guidelines to banks in
78.     With a view to increasing banking            this regard will be issued separately.
penetration and promoting financial
inclusion, domestic commercial banks,                81.    Furthermore, a suggestion has
both in the public and private sectors, were         been received from various quarters to
advised to take some specific actions.               consider ‘for profit’ companies (other than
First, banks were required to put in place           NBFCs) as BCs of banks. Keeping in view
a Board-approved Financial Inclusion                 the ramifications of the suggestion, it is
Plan (FIP) in order to roll them out over            proposed:
the next three years and submit the same             ∑   to prepare a discussion paper on the
to the Reserve Bank by March 2010.                       subject which will be placed on the
Banks were advised to devise FIPs                        Reserve Bank’s website. Based on the
congruent with their business strategy and               feedback, a final view will be taken
to make it an integral part of their                     in the matter.
corporate plans. The Reserve Bank has
deliberately not imposed a uniform model             High Level Committee on Lead Bank
so that each bank is able to build its own           Scheme
strategy in line with its business model             82.    On     the     basis    of     the
and comparative advantage. Second,                   recommendations of the High Level
banks were required to include criteria on           Committee on Lead Bank Scheme
financial inclusion in the performance               (Chairperson: Smt. Usha Thorat), the State
evaluation of their field staff. Third, banks        Level Bankers’ Committee (SLBC)
were advised to draw up a roadmap by                 convenor banks were advised on
March 2010 to provide banking services               November 27, 2009 that the lead banks
in every village having a population of              should constitute a sub-committee of the

                                                18
District Consultative Committees (DCCs)            ∑   to expand the terms of reference of
to draw up a roadmap by March 2010 to                  the Working Group to also review the
provide banking services through a                     pros and cons of inclusion of bank
banking outlet in every village having a               lending to micro-finance institutions
population of over 2,000. Such banking                 (MFIs) under priority sector lending.
services need not necessarily be extended              The Group is expected to submit its
through a brick and mortar branch but                  Report by end-June 2010.
through any of the various forms of
                                                   Urban Co-operative Banks
information and communication
technology (ICT)-based models, including           Establishment     of      New     Urban
through business correspondents (BCs).             Co-operative Banks
Based on the other recommendations of              84.     Taking into account the systemic
the Committee, the lead banks/scheduled            financial       health      of      urban
commercial banks were advised on                   co-operative banks (UCBs), it was
March 2, 2010 to (i) strengthen various            decided in 2004 not to set up any new
fora under the Lead Bank Scheme;                   UCBs. With a view to improving the
(ii) discuss specific issues enabling and          financial soundness of the UCB sector,
inhibiting financial inclusion in the SLBC/        memoranda of understanding (MoU) were
DCC machinery; (iii) set up separate               signed with all State Governments.
sub-committees to work intensively on              Following the consolidation, the financial
specific issues; and (iv) prepare district         condition of the UCB sector has improved
credit plans/annual credit plans linked            considerably and UCBs have also been
with the business plans of the banks. For          allowed to enter into new areas of
this purpose, it is proposed:                      business. With a view to increasing the
∑   to put in place an appropriate                 coverage of banking services amongst
    monitoring mechanism of the working            local communities, it is proposed:
    of the SLBCs/DCCs.                             ∑   to set up a Committee comprising
Priority Sector Lending Certificates:                  all stakeholders for studying
Working Group                                          the advisability of granting new
                                                       urban co-operative banking licences
83.     In pursuance of the announcement               under Section 22 of the Banking
made in the Second Quarter Review of                   Regulation Act, 1949 [as applicable
October 2009, a Working Group on                       to co-operative societies (AACS)].
Introduction of Priority Sector Lending
Certificates (PSLCs) (Chairman:                    Liberalisation of Off-site ATMs by
Shri V. K. Sharma) was constituted by the          UCBs
Reserve Bank in November 2009 to                   85.     Under the extant policy of branch
examine the pros and cons of the                   authorisation, UCBs, which are
recommendation made by the Committee               well-managed and meet the regulatory
on Financial Sector Reforms (Chairman:             criteria, are required to submit annual
Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan) relating to PSLCs           business plans, based on which centres are
and make suitable recommendations on its           allotted to them according to their choice
introduction and their trading in the open         for opening of branches. Centres where
market. In this context, it is proposed:           UCBs desire to open off-site ATMs are

                                              19
also required to be included in their annual         to follow for their dealing with individual
business plan. In order to further improve           customers.
the banking infrastructure, it has been              89.         However, within the domain of
decided to liberalise the approach to                necessary freedom to banks to choose
setting up of off-site ATMs by UCBs.                 the types of services to be offered to the
Accordingly, it is proposed:                         customers and related costs, concerted
∑   to allow well-managed UCBs to set                efforts need to be made to further
    up off-site ATMs without seeking                 d e v e l o p a c r e d i b l e a n d e ff e c t i v e
    approval through the annual business             f u n c t i o n a l s y s t e m o f a t t e n d i n g to
                                                     customer complaints. In particular,
    plans.
                                                     banks’ internal structure needs to be
86.     Detailed guidelines in this regard           made functionally effective and scaled
will be issued by mid-May 2010.                      up to attend to not only basic customer
                                                     needs, but the special needs of
Customer Service
                                                     disadvantaged groups such as
87.      The issue of ‘treating customers            pensioners and small borrowers,
fairly’ is assuming critical importance as           including farmers. Though there exists
the experience shows that consumer’s                 a tiered mechanism for customer
interests are often not accorded full                grievance redressal in the banks, its
protection and properly attended to.                 e ff i c a c y i n t e r m s o f a t t e n d i n g t o
Customer service in the banking industry             customer complaints is far from
is increasingly becoming important as                satisfactory. Taking into account all
                                                     these considerations, it is proposed:
banks are privileged institutions and
banking is a special public utility service.         ∑    to set up a Committee to look into
The Reserve Bank and the Banking                          banking services rendered to retail
Ombudsman’s offices have been receiving                   and small customers, including
several complaints regarding levying of                   pensioners. The Committee will also
excessive interest rates and charges on                   look into the system of grievance
certain loans and advances.                               redressal mechanism prevalent in
                                                          banks, its structure and efficacy, and
88.      The Reserve Bank has, over the                   suggest measures for expeditious
years, undertaken a number of initiatives                 resolution of complaints. The
for ensuring fair treatment to customers.                 Committee will also examine the
This has taken the form of both regulatory                international experiences in this
fiats (such as reining in of recovery agents,             regard.
introduction of comprehensive display                ∑    to further strengthen the mechanism,
board, banking facilities for the visually                for implementing the Reserve Bank’s
challenged, rationalisation of service                    guidelines on customer service,
charges on collection of outstation                       through on-site and off-site
cheques and free use of ATMs) as also                     inspections.
moral suasion and class action. The Code             ∑    to require banks to devote exclusive
of Bank’s Commitment to Customers was                     time in a Board meeting once every
introduced in July 2006 to set a minimum                  six months to review and deliberate
standard of banking practices for banks                   on customer service.

                                                20
V. Regulatory and Supervisory Measures for
                             Commercial Banks

Strengthening the Resilience of the                implementation of enhancements and
Banking Sector                                     revisions to Basel-II framework finalised
                                                   by the Basel Committee in July 2009.
90.     In December 2009, the Basel
                                                   Accordingly, the Reserve Bank issued
Committee on Banking Supervision
                                                   guidelines to banks in February 2010.
(BCBS) had issued two consultative
                                                   These guidelines require banks to make
documents for public comments. The
                                                   specified valuation adjustments for
document on ‘Strengthening the
                                                   various risks/costs in their portfolios
Resilience of the Banking Sector’ contains
                                                   including derivatives, which are subject
proposals for raising the quality,
                                                   to ‘mark to market’ requirement and also
consistency and transparency of the
                                                   for illiquidity of these positions. These
capital base, enhancing risk coverage,
                                                   guidelines also permit banks to follow any
prescribing leverage ratio and containing
                                                   recognised models/methods for computing
pro-cyclicality. The second document on
                                                   the amount of valuation adjustment. In
‘International Framework for Liquidity             order to ensure that a consistent
Risk Measurement Standards and                     methodology is adopted by banks for the
Monitoring’ focuses on measures for                purpose, it is proposed:
further elevating the resilience of
internationally active banks to liquidity          ∑   to constitute a Working Group with
stress across the globe as well as                     members from the Reserve Bank,
increasing international harmonisation of              FIMMDA, the IBA and a few banks
liquidity risk supervision. The Basel                  to recommend an appropriate
Committee is presently undertaking a                   framework in this regard.
Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) of these           Convergence of Indian Accounting
proposals. The QIS will form the basis for         Standards with International Financial
calibrating reforms proposed in the above          Reporting Standards
two documents to arrive at an appropriate
                                                   92.    As part of the efforts to ensure
level and quality of capital and liquidity.
                                                   convergence of the Indian Accounting
The fully calibrated set of standards is
                                                   Standards (IASs) with the International
expected to be developed by end-2010
                                                   Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs),
with the aim of implementation by
                                                   the roadmap for banking companies and
end of 2012. Ten large Indian banks are            non-banking financial companies
participating in the QIS.                          (NBFCs) has been finalised by the
Working Group on Valuation                         Ministry of Corporate Affairs in
Adjustment and Treatment of Illiquid               consultation with the Reserve Bank. As
Positions                                          per the roadmap, all scheduled
                                                   commercial banks will convert their
91.   In the Second Quarter Review of              opening balance sheet as at April 1, 2013
October 2009, it was proposed to issue             in compliance with the IFRS converged
appropriate guidelines to banks for                IASs.

                                              21
93.     However, with regard to UCBs and                preparing banks and other entities to
NBFCs, a gradualist approach is                         adhere to the roadmap.
considered appropriate. The roadmap
envisages UCBs having net worth in                  Infrastructure Financing
excess of Rs. 300 crore and NBFCs which             95.     With a view to meeting the
are part of NSE-Nifty 50 and BSE-Sensex             increasing financing needs of
30 as well as those NBFCs having net                infrastructure development, the Reserve
worth in excess of Rs.1,000 crore to                Bank has taken a number of measures to
converge with IFRSs in tandem with the              facilitate adequate flow of bank credit to
time schedule given for scheduled                   this sector. In order to give a further thrust
commercial banks. UCBs having net                   to infrastructure financing by banks, some
worth in excess of Rs. 200 crore but not            further measures are felt necessary.
exceeding Rs. 300 crore and other listed
                                                    96.     In terms of extant instructions,
NBFCs as well as unlisted NBFCs having
                                                    rights, licenses and authorisations of
a net worth in excess of Rs. 500 crore shall
                                                    borrowers, charged to banks as collateral
convert their opening balance sheets as on
                                                    in respect of project loans (including
April 1, 2014 in compliance with the IFRS
                                                    infrastructure projects) are not eligible for
converged IASs. Remaining UCBs,
                                                    being reckoned as tangible security for the
unlisted NBFCs not falling in the above
                                                    purpose of classifying an advance as
categories and regional rural banks
                                                    secured loan. As toll collection rights and
(RRBs) need to follow only the notified
                                                    annuities in the case of road/highway
IASs which are not converged with IFRSs.
                                                    projects confer certain material benefits
94.    Considering the amount of work               to lenders, it is proposed:
involved in the convergence process, it is
                                                    ∑   to treat annuities under build-operate-
expected that banks and other entities
                                                        transfer (BOT) model in respect of
concurrently initiate appropriate measures
                                                        road/highway projects and toll
to upgrade their skills, management
                                                        collection rights, where there are
information system (MIS) and information
                                                        provisions to compensate the project
technology (IT) capabilities to manage the
                                                        sponsor if a certain level of traffic is
complexities and challenges of IFRSs. The
                                                        not achieved, as tangible securities
implementation poses additional
                                                        subject to the condition that banks’
challenge as certain aspects of IFRSs,
                                                        right to receive annuities and toll
especially the standards on financial
                                                        collection rights is legally enforceable
instruments, are under review and would
                                                        and irrevocable.
take some time before they are finalised.
In order to facilitate smooth migration to          97.    Till June 2004, the Reserve Bank
IFRSs, it is proposed:                              had prescribed a limit on banks’ unsecured
                                                    exposures. As a step towards deregulation,
∑   to undertake a study of the
                                                    the above limit was withdrawn to enable
    implications of the IFRSs
                                                    banks’ Boards to formulate their own
    convergence process and also to issue
                                                    policies on unsecured exposures. The
    operational guidelines as appropriate.
                                                    provisioning requirement for unsecured
∑   to disseminate information through              sub-standard exposures, however, was
    learning programmes with a view to              increased to 20 per cent consequent to the

                                               22
withdrawal of limits on banks’ unsecured              the one-mode presence criterion. The
exposures (the provisioning requirement               WOS was to be treated on par with the
for secured sub-standard exposures stands             existing branches of foreign banks for
at 10 per cent). In view of certain                   branch expansion in India. No foreign
safeguards such as escrow accounts                    bank, however, applied to establish itself
available in respect of infrastructure                as a WOS or to convert to a WOS during
lending, it is proposed that:                         the first phase.
∑   infrastructure loan accounts classified           99.     When the revision of presence of
    as sub-standard will attract a                    foreign banks in India was due in April
    provisioning of 15 per cent instead of            2009, the global financial markets were
    the current prescription of 20 per cent.          in turmoil and there were uncertainties
    To avail of this benefit of lower                 surrounding the financial strength of
    provisioning, banks should have in                banks around the world. Accordingly, the
    place an appropriate mechanism to                 Annual Policy Statement of April 2009
                                                      indicated the intent to continue with the
    escrow the cash flows and also have
                                                      current policy and procedures governing
    a clear and legal first claim on such
                                                      the presence of foreign banks in India and
    cash flows.
                                                      to review its roadmap after due
Presence of Foreign Banks                             consultation with the stakeholders once
98.      In February 2005, the Reserve                there was greater clarity regarding
Bank had released the ‘roadmap for                    stability and recovery of the global
presence of foreign banks in India’ laying            financial system.
out a two-track and gradualist approach               100. While global financial markets
aimed at increasing the efficiency and                have been improving, various
stability of the banking sector in India. The         international fora have been engaged in
first track was the consolidation of the              setting out policy frameworks
domestic banking system, both in the                  incorporating the lessons learnt from the
private and public sectors, and the second            crisis. Some of the lessons from crisis are
track was the gradual enhancement of                  to avoid organisational structures which
foreign banks in a synchronised manner.               become (i) too big to fail and (ii) too
The roadmap was divided into two phases,              complex to fail. Furthermore, while there
the first phase spanning the period March             is a realisation that as international
2005 – March 2009, and the second phase               agreement on cross-border resolution
beginning after a review of the experience            mechanism for internationally active
gained in the first phase. In the first phase,        banks is not likely to be reached in the
foreign banks wishing to establish                    near future, there is considerable merit
presence in India for the first time could            in subsidiarisation of significant
either choose to operate through branch               cross-border presence. Apart from easing
presence or set up a 100 per cent                     the resolution process, this will also
wholly-owned subsidiary (WOS),                        provide greater regulatory control and
following the one-mode presence                       comfort to the host jurisdictions. Drawing
criterion. Foreign banks already operating            lessons from the crisis, it is proposed:
in India were also allowed to convert their           ∑   to prepare a discussion paper on the
existing branches to WOS while following                  mode of presence of foreign banks

                                                 23
through branch or WOS by September              conglomerates and better insulation of a
    2010.                                           bank from the reputational and other risks
                                                    of the subsidiaries/affiliates within the
Licensing of New Banks                              group. The Committee on Financial Sector
101. The Finance Minister, in his                   Assessment (CFSA), in its report issued
budget speech on February 26, 2010                  in March 2009, observed that given the
announced that the Reserve Bank                     lack of clarity in the existing statutes
was considering giving some additional              relating to the regulation and supervision
banking licenses to private sector players.         of financial holding companies, the
NBFCs could also be considered,                     holding company structure as prevalent in
if they meet the Reserve Bank’s                     the US for financial conglomerates is not
eligibility criteria. In line with the above        currently in use in India. The Committee
announcement, it is proposed:                       noted that the absence of the holding
                                                    company structure in financial
∑   to prepare a discussion paper                   conglomerates exposes investors,
    marshalling the international                   depositors and the parent company to
    practices, the Indian experience as             risks, strains the parent company’s ability
    also the extant ownership and                   to fund its own core business and could
    governance (O&G) guidelines and                 restrict the growth of the subsidiary
    place it on the Reserve Bank’s                  business. Considering the complexity of
    website by end-July 2010 for wider              the issues involved and implications of the
    comments and feedback.                          BHC/FHC model for the financial system
                                                    in general and banking system in
102. Thereafter, detailed discussions
                                                    particular, it is proposed:
will be held with all stakeholders on the
discussion paper and guidelines will be             ∑   to constitute a Working Group with
finalised based on the feedback. All                    the representatives from the
applications received in this regard would              Government, the Reserve Bank, the
be referred to an external expert group for             SEBI, the IRDA and the IBA to
examination and recommendations to the                  recommend a roadmap for the
Reserve Bank for granting licenses.                     introduction of a holding company
                                                        structure together with the required
Introduction of Bank Holding                            legislative amendment/framework.
Company (BHC)/Financial Holding
                                                    Conversion of Term Deposits, Daily
Company (FHC) in India
                                                    Deposits or Recurring Deposits for
103. The Reserve Bank placed a                      Reinvestment in Term Deposits
Discussion Paper on Holding Companies               104. As per extant guidelines, banks
in Banking Groups on its website in                 should allow conversion of term deposits,
August 2007 for public comments. The                daily deposits or recurring deposits to
feedback received on the Discussion Paper           enable depositors to immediately reinvest
underscored the need for introduction of            the amount lying in the aforesaid deposits
bank holding companies (BHCs)/financial             with the same bank in another term
holding companies (FHCs) in India to                deposit. Banks are required to pay interest
ensure an orderly growth of financial               in respect of such term deposits without

                                               24
Mpsa200410
Mpsa200410
Mpsa200410
Mpsa200410
Mpsa200410
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Mpsa200410

  • 1. Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Statement 2010-11 By Dr. D. Subbarao Governor The Monetary Policy for 2010-11 turnaround after the crisis induced is set against a rather complex economic slowdown evidences the resilience of our backdrop. Although the situation is more economy and our financial sector. reassuring than it was a quarter ago, However, this should not divert us from uncertainty about the shape and pace of the need to bring back into focus the twin global recovery persists. Private challenges of macroeconomic stability spending in advanced economies and financial sector development. continues to be constrained and inflation 3. This statement is organised in two remains generally subdued making it parts. Part A covers Monetary Policy and likely that fiscal and monetary stimuli is divided into four Sections: Section I in these economies will continue for an provides an overview of global and extended period. Emerging market domestic macroeconomic developments; economies (EMEs) are significantly Section II sets out the outlook and ahead on the recovery curve, but some projections for growth, inflation and of them are also facing inflationary monetary aggregates; Section III explains pressures. the stance of monetary policy; and Section 2. India’s growth-inflation dynamics IV specifies the monetary measures. are in contrast to the overall global Part B covers Developmental and scenario. The economy is recovering Regulatory Policies and is organised into rapidly from the growth slowdown but six sections: Financial Stability (Section inflationary pressures, which were I), Interest Rate Policy (Section II), triggered by supply side factors, are now Financial Markets (Section III), Credit developing into a wider inflationary Delivery and Financial Inclusion (Section process. As the domestic balance of risks IV), Regulatory and Supervisory shifts from growth slowdown to inflation, Measures for Commercial Banks (Section our policy stance must recognise and V) and Institutional Developments respond to this transition. While global (Section VI). policy co-ordination was critical in 4. Part A of this Statement should be dealing with a worldwide crisis, the exit read and understood together with the process will necessarily be differentiated detailed review in Macroeconomic and on the basis of the macroeconomic Monetary Developments released condition in each country. India’s rapid yesterday by the Reserve Bank.
  • 2. Part A. Monetary Policy I. The State of the Economy Global Economy production (IIP) recorded a growth of 17.6 per cent in December 2009, 16.7 per cent 5. The global economy continues to in January 2010 and 15.1 per cent in recover amidst ongoing policy support and February 2010. The recovery has also improving financial market conditions. become more broad-based with 14 out of The recovery process is led by EMEs, 17 industry groups recording accelerated especially those in Asia, as growth growth during April 2009-February 2010. remains weak in advanced economies. The sharp pick-up in the growth of the The global economy continues to face capital goods sector, in double digits since several challenges such as high levels September 2009, points to the revival of of unemployment, which are close to investment activity. After a continuous 10 per cent in the US and the Euro area. decline for eleven months, imports Despite signs of renewed activity in expanded by 2.6 per cent in November manufacturing and initial improvement in 2009, 32.4 per cent in December 2009, retail sales, the prospects of economic 35.5 per cent in January 2010 and recovery in Europe are clouded by the 66.4 per cent in February 2010. The acute fiscal strains in some countries. acceleration in non-oil imports since 6. Core measures of inflation in November 2009 further evidences major advanced economies are still recovery in domestic demand. After moderating as the output gap persists and contracting for twelve straight months, unemployment remains high. Inflation exports have turned around since October expectations also remain well-anchored. 2009 reflecting revival of external In contrast, core measures of inflation in demand. Various lead indicators of service EMEs, especially in Asia, have been sector activity also suggest increased rising. This has prompted central banks economic activity. On the whole, the in some EMEs to begin phasing out their economic recovery, which began around accommodative monetary policies. the second quarter of 2009-10, has since shown sustained improvement. Domestic Economy 9. A sharp recovery of growth during 7. The Reserve Bank had projected 2009-10 despite the worst south-west the real GDP growth for 2009-10 at 7.5 monsoon since 1972 attests to the per cent. The advance estimates released resilience of the Indian economy. On by the Central Statistical Organisation the demand side, the contribution of (CSO) in early February 2010 placed various components to growth in 2009-10 the real GDP growth during 2009-10 at was as follows: private consumption 7.2 per cent. The final real GDP growth (36 per cent), government consumption for 2009-10 may settle between 7.2 and (14 per cent), fixed investments 7.5 per cent. (26 per cent) and net exports (20 per cent). 8. The uptrend in industrial activity The monetary and fiscal stimulus continues. The index of industrial measures initiated in the wake of the 2
  • 3. global financial crisis played an important 12. Growth in monetary and credit role, first in mitigating the adverse impact aggregates during 2009-10 remained from contagion and then in ensuring that broadly in line with the projections set out the economy recovered quickly. in the Third Quarter Review in January 10. However, the developments on 2010. Non-food bank credit expanded the inflation front are worrisome. steadily during the second half of the year. The headline inflation, as measured by Consequently, the year-on-year non-food year-on-year variation in Wholesale Price credit growth recovered from its intra-year Index (WPI), accelerated from 0.5 per cent low of 10.3 per cent in October 2009 to in September 2009 to 9.9 per cent in 16.9 per cent by March 2010. The increase March 2010, exceeding the Reserve in bank credit was also supplemented by Bank’s baseline projection of higher flow of financial resources from 8.5 per cent for March 2010 set out in the other sources. Reserve Bank’s estimates Third Quarter Review. Year-on-year WPI show that the total flow of financial non-food manufactured products (weight: resources from banks, domestic non-bank 52.2 per cent) inflation, which was (-) 0.4 and external sources to the commercial per cent in November 2009, turned sector during 2009-10 at Rs.9,71,000 marginally positive to 0.7 per cent in crore, was higher than the amount of December 2009 and rose sharply Rs.8,34,000 crore in the previous year. thereafter to 3.3 per cent in January 2010 13. Scheduled commercial banks and further to 4.7 per cent in March 2010. (SCBs) raised their deposit rates by Year-on-year fuel price inflation also 25-50 basis points between February and surged from (-) 0.7 per cent in November April 2010 so far, signalling a reversal in 2009 to 5.9 per cent in December 2009, the trend of reduction in deposit rates. On to 8.1 per cent in January 2010 and further the lending side, the benchmark prime to 12.7 per cent in March 2010. Despite lending rates (BPLRs) of SCBs have some seasonal moderation, food price remained unchanged since July 2009 inflation remains elevated. following reductions in the range of 11. Clearly, WPI inflation is no longer 25-100 basis points between March and driven by supply side factors alone. The June 2009. However, data from select contribution of non-food items to overall banks suggest that the weighted average WPI inflation, which was negative yield on advances, which is a proxy at (-) 0.4 per cent in November 2009 rose measure for effective lending rates, is sharply to 53.3 per cent by March 2010. projected to decline from 10.8 per cent in Consumer price index (CPI) based March 2009 to 10.1 per cent by March measures of inflation were in the range of 2010. The Base Rate system of loan 14.9-16.9 per cent in January/February pricing, which will replace the BPLR 2010. Thus, inflationary pressures have system with effect from July 1, 2010, is accentuated since the Third Quarter expected to facilitate better pricing of Review in January 2010. What was loans, enhance transparency in lending initially a process driven by food prices rates and improve the assessment of has now become more generalised. monetary policy transmission. 3
  • 4. 14. Financial markets functioned of active liquidity management measures normally through the year. Surplus such as front-loading of the borrowing liquidity that prevailed throughout the calendar, unwinding of securities under year declined towards the end of the year the market stabilisation scheme (MSS) consistent with the monetary policy and open market operation (OMO) stance. The Reserve Bank absorbed about purchases. Rs.1,00,000 crore on a daily average basis 17. The Union Budget for 2010-11 under the liquidity adjustment facility has begun the process of fiscal (LAF) during the current financial year up consolidation by budgeting lower fiscal to February 12, 2010, i.e., before the first deficit (5.5 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 as stage of increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) came into effect. During February compared with 6.7 per cent in 2009-10) 27- March 31, 2010, the average daily and revenue deficit (4.0 per cent of GDP absorption of surplus liquidity declined to in 2010-11 as compared with 5.3 per cent around Rs. 38,200 crore reflecting the in 2009-10). As a result, the net market increase in the CRR, year-end advance tax borrowing requirement of the Central outflows and higher credit demand from Government in 2010-11 is budgeted lower the private sector. However, as the overall at Rs.3,45,010 crore as compared with that liquidity remained in surplus, overnight in the previous year. interest rates generally stayed close to the 18. Historically, fiscal deficits have lower bound of the LAF rate corridor. been financed by a combination of 15. The large market borrowing by the market borrowings and other sources. Government put upward pressure on the However, in 2009-10 and 2010-11, yields on government securities during reliance on market borrowings for 2009-10. However, this was contained by financing the fiscal deficit increased in active liquidity management by the relative terms. The large market Reserve Bank. Lower credit demand by borrowing in 2009-10 was facilitated by the private sector also cushioned the yield. the unwinding of MSS securities and Equity markets generally remained firm OMO purchases, as a result of which fresh during the year with intermittent issuance of securities constituted 63.0 per corrections in line with the global pattern. cent of the total budgeted market Resource mobilisation through public borrowings. However in 2010-11, almost issues increased sharply. Housing prices the entire budgeted borrowings will be rebounded during 2009-10. According to funded by fresh issuance of securities. the Reserve Bank’s survey, they surpassed Therefore, notwithstanding the lower their pre-crisis peak levels in Mumbai. budgeted net borrowings, fresh issuance 16. During 2009-10, the Central of securities in 2010-11 will be Government raised Rs.3,98,411 crore (net) Rs.3,42,300 crore, higher than the through the market borrowing programme corresponding figure of Rs.2,51,000 crore while the state governments mobilised last year. The large government borrowing Rs.1,14,883 crore (net). This large in 2009-10 was also facilitated by sluggish borrowing was managed in a non- private credit demand and comfortable disruptive manner through a combination liquidity conditions. However, going 4
  • 5. forward, private credit demand is expected the corresponding period last year. to pick up further. Meanwhile, inflationary Consequently, on a balance of payments pressures have also made it imperative for basis (i.e., excluding valuation effects), the Reserve Bank to absorb surplus foreign exchange reserves increased by liquidity from the system. Thus, managing US$ 11 billion as against a decline of US$ the borrowings of the Government during 20 billion during the corresponding period 2010-11 will be a bigger challenge than it a year ago. Foreign exchange reserves was last year. stood at US$ 279 billion as on March 31, 2010. The six-currency 19. The current account deficit during trade-based real effective exchange rate April-December 2009 was US$ 30 billion (REER) (1993-94=100) appreciated by as compared with US$ 28 billion for the 15.5 per cent during 2009-10 up to corresponding period of 2008. Net capital February as against 10.4 per cent inflows at US$ 42 billion were also depreciation in the corresponding period substantially higher than US$ 7 billion in of the previous year. II. Outlook and Projections Global Outlook commercial real estate is declining. Growth Growth in the euro area, on a quarter-on- quarter basis, was 0.1 per cent in Q4 of 20. In its World Economic Outlook 2009. It may remain moderate in 2010 Update for January 2010, the International because of the ongoing process of balance Monetary Fund (IMF) projected sheet adjustment in various sectors, that global growth will recover from (-) 0.8 dampened investment, low capacity per cent in 2009 to 3.9 per cent in 2010 utilisation and low consumption. Though and further to 4.3 per cent in 2011. exports are improving and the decline in Organisation for Economic Co-operation business fixed investment is moderating, and Development’s (OECD) composite several euro-zone governments are faced leading indicators (CLIs) in February with high and unsustainable fiscal 2010 continued to signal an improvement imbalances which could have implications in economic activity for the advanced for medium and long-term interest rates. economies. Three major factors that have contributed to the improved global In Japan, improved prospects on account outlook are the massive monetary and of exports have been offset by the fiscal support, improvement in confidence levelling off of public investment and rise and a strong recovery in EMEs. in unemployment. 21. US GDP rose by 5.6 per cent on 22. Amongst EMEs, China continues an annualised basis during Q4 of 2009. to grow at a rapid pace, led mainly by However, household spending remains domestic demand. Malaysia and Thailand constrained by high unemployment at have recovered to register positive growth 9.7 per cent. Though business fixed in the second half of 2009. Indonesia investment is turning around and housing recorded positive growth throughout starts are picking up, investment in 2009. 5
  • 6. Inflation business expectation index (BEI) showed seasonal moderation from 120.6 in Q4 of 23. Globally, headline inflation rates 2009-10 to 119.8 in Q1 of 2010-11, it was rose between November 2009 and January much higher in comparison with the level 2010, softened in February 2010 on of 96.4 a year ago. The improved account of moderation of food, metal and performance of the industrial sector is also crude prices and again rose marginally in reflected in the improved profitability in some major economies in March 2010. the corporate sector. Service sector Core inflation continued to decline in the activities have shown buoyancy, US on account of substantial resource especially during the latter half of slack. Inflation expectations in advanced 2009-10. The leading indicators of various countries also remain stable. Though sectors such as tourist arrivals, inflation has started rising in several commercial vehicles production and EMEs, India is a significant outlier with traffic at major ports show significant inflation rates much higher than in other improvement. A sustained increase in bank EMEs. credit and in the financial resources raised Domestic Outlook by the commercial sector from non-bank Growth sources also suggest that the recovery is gaining momentum. 24. The Indian economy is firmly on the recovery path. Exports have been 26. On balance, under the assumption expanding since October 2009, a trend of a normal monsoon and sustenance of good performance of the industrial and that is expected to continue. The industrial services sectors on the back of rising sector recovery is increasingly becoming domestic and external demand, for policy broad-based and is expected to take firmer purposes the baseline projection of real hold going forward on the back of rising GDP growth for 2010-11 is placed at 8.0 domestic and external demand. per cent with an upside bias (Chart 1). 25. Surveys generally support the Inflation perception of a consolidating recovery. According to the Reserve Bank’s quarterly 27. Headline WPI inflation, which industrial outlook survey, although the moderated in the first half of 2009-10, Chart 1: Projection of GDP Growth for 2010-11 10 GDP Growth (%) 9 8 7 6 2010-11 2009-10 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Baseline Projection 50 Per cent CI 70 Per cent CI 90 Per cent CI CI - confidence interval 6
  • 7. firmed up in the second half of the year. It of seasonal moderation in food prices, accelerated from 1.5 per cent in October overall food inflation continues at an 2009 to 9.9 per cent by March 2010. The elevated level. It is likely that structural deficient south-west monsoon rainfall shortage of certain agricultural accentuated the pressure on food prices. commodities such as pulses, edible oils This, combined with the firming up of and milk could reduce the pace of food global commodity prices from their low price moderation. Second, the firming up levels in early 2009 and incipient demand of global commodity prices poses upside side pressures, led to acceleration in the risks to inflation. Third, the Reserve overall inflation rate – both of the WPI Bank’s industrial outlook survey shows and the CPIs. that corporates are increasingly regaining their pricing power in many sectors. As 28. The Reserve Bank’s baseline the recovery gains further momentum, projection of WPI inflation for March the demand pressures are expected to 2010 was 8.5 per cent. However, some accentuate. Fourth, the Reserve Bank’s subsequent developments on both supply quarterly inflation expectations survey for and demand sides pushed up inflation. households indicates that household Enhancement of excise duty and inflation expectations have remained at an restoration of the basic customs duty on elevated level. crude petroleum and petroleum products and the increase in prices of iron ore and 30. Going forward, three major coal had a significant impact on WPI uncertainties cloud the outlook for inflation. In addition, demand side inflation. First, the prospects of the pressures also re-emerged as reflected in monsoon in 2010-11 are not yet clear. the sharp increase in non-food Second, crude prices continue to be manufactured products inflation from 0.7 volatile. Third, there is evidence of demand side pressures building up. On per cent to 4.7 per cent between December balance, keeping in view domestic 2009 and March 2010. demand-supply balance and the global 29. There have been significant trend in commodity prices, the baseline changes in the drivers of inflation in recent projection for WPI inflation for March months. First, while there are some signs 2011 is placed at 5.5 per cent (Chart 2). Chart 2: Projected Path of Y-o-Y WPI Inflation 15.0 12.5 Inflation Rate (%) 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 Mar-11 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 -2.5 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Baseline Projection 50 Per cent CI 70 Per cent CI 90 Per cent CI CI - confidence interval 7
  • 8. 31. It would be the endeavour of the policy purposes, M3 growth for 2010-11 Reserve Bank to ensure price stability and is placed at 17.0 per cent. Consistent with anchor inflation expectations. In pursuit this, aggregate deposits of SCBs are of these objectives, the Reserve Bank projected to grow by 18.0 per cent. The will continue to monitor an array of growth in non-food credit of SCBs is measures of inflation, both overall and placed at 20.0 per cent. As always, these disaggregated components, in the context numbers are provided as indicative of the evolving macroeconomic situation projections and not as targets. to assess the underlying inflationary pressures. Risk Factors 32. Notwithstanding the current 35. While the indicative projections of inflation scenario, it is important to growth and inflation for 2010-11 may recognise that in the last decade, the appear reassuring, the following major average inflation rate, measured both in downside risks to growth and upside risks terms of WPI and CPI, had moderated to to inflation need to be recognised: about 5 per cent from the historical trend First, uncertainty persists about the pace rate of about 7.5 per cent. Against this and shape of global recovery. Fiscal background, the conduct of monetary stimulus measures played a major role in policy will continue to condition and the recovery process in many countries by contain perception of inflation in the range compensating for the fall in private of 4.0-4.5 per cent. This will be in line demand. Private demand in major with the medium-term objective of 3.0 advanced economies continues to be weak per cent inflation consistent with India’s due to high unemployment rates, weak broader integration into the global income growth and tight credit conditions. economy. There is a risk that once the impact of Monetary Aggregates public spending wanes, the recovery process will be stalled. Therefore, the 33. During 2009-10, money supply prospects of sustaining the recovery hinge (M 3) growth decelerated from over 20.0 per cent at the beginning of the financial strongly on the revival of private year to 16.4 per cent in February 2010 consumption and investment. While before increasing to 16.8 per cent by recovery in India is expected to be driven March 2010, slightly above the Reserve predominantly by domestic demand, Bank’s indicative projection of 16.5 significant trade, financial and sentiment per cent. This was reflected in non-food linkages indicate that a sluggish and credit growth of 16.9 per cent, above the uncertain global environment can indicative projection of 16.0 per cent. adversely impact the Indian economy. 34. Keeping in view the need to Second, if the global recovery does gain balance the resource demand to meet momentum, commodity and energy prices, credit offtake by the private sector and which have been on the rise during the last government borrowings, monetary one year, may harden further. Increase in projections have been made consistent global commodity prices could, therefore, with the growth and inflation outlook. For add to inflationary pressures. 8
  • 9. Third, from the perspective of both markets, are getting increasingly domestic demand and inflation concerned about the external sector management, the 2010 south-west dynamics. monsoon is a critical factor. The current 36. Our exchange rate policy is not assessment of softening of domestic guided by a fixed or pre-announced target inflation around mid-2010 is contingent or band. Our policy has been to retain the on a normal monsoon and moderation in flexibility to intervene in the market to food prices. Any unfavourable pattern in manage excessive volatility and spatial and temporal distribution of disruptions to the macroeconomic rainfall could exacerbate food inflation. situation. Recent experience has In the current context, an unfavourable underscored the issue of large and often monsoon could also impose a fiscal volatile capital flows influencing burden and dampen rural consumer and exchange rate movements against the investment demand. grain of economic fundamentals and Fourth, it is unlikely that the large current account balances. There is, monetary expansion in advanced therefore, a need to be vigilant against the economies will be unwound in the near build-up of sharp and volatile exchange future. Accommodative monetary policies rate movements and its potentially in the advanced economies, coupled with harmful impact on the real economy. better growth prospects in EMEs 37. The resumption of the process of including India, are expected to trigger fiscal consolidation has been a significant large capital flows into the EMEs. While positive development. This will help avoid the absorptive capacity of the Indian crowding out of private sector credit economy has been increasing, excessive demand and facilitate better monetary flows pose a challenge for exchange rate management. However, the overall size of and monetary management. The rupee has the government borrowing programme is appreciated sharply in real terms over the still very large and can exert pressure on past one year. Pressures from higher interest rates. Going forward, fiscal capital flows combined with the prevailing consolidation has to shift from one-off rate of inflation will only reinforce that gains to structural improvements on both tendency. Both exporters, whose prospects tax and expenditure sides, and focus are just beginning to turn, and producers, increasingly on the quality of fiscal who compete with imports in domestic consolidation. III. The Policy Stance 38. In the wake of the global economic economy and ensured that the economy crisis, the Reserve Bank pursued started recovering ahead of most other an accommodative monetary policy economies. However, in view of the rising beginning mid-September 2008. This food inflation and the risk of it impinging policy instilled confidence in market on inflationary expectations, the Reserve participants, mitigated the adverse impact Bank embarked on the first phase of exit of the global financial crisis on the from the expansionary monetary policy by 9
  • 10. terminating some sector-specific liquidity can complicate the inflation outlook facilities and restoring the statutory and impair inflationary expectations, liquidity ratio (SLR) of scheduled particularly given the recent escalation in commercial banks to its pre-crisis level in the prices of non-food manufactured the Second Quarter Review of October items. Despite the increase of 25 basis 2009. points each in the repo rate and the reverse 39. The process was carried forward repo rate, our real policy rates are still by the second phase of exit when the negative. With the recovery now firmly in Reserve Bank announced a 75 basis points place, we need to move in a calibrated increase in the CRR in the Third Quarter manner in the direction of normalising our Review of January 2010. As inflation policy instruments. continued to increase, driven significantly Second, inflationary pressures have by the prices of non-food manufactured accentuated in the recent period. More goods, and exceeded the Reserve Bank’s importantly, inflation, which was earlier baseline projection of 8.5 per cent for driven entirely by supply side factors, is March 2010 (made in the Third Quarter now getting increasingly generalised. Review), the Reserve Bank responded There is already some evidence that the expeditiously with a mid-cycle increase pricing power of corporates has returned. of 25 basis points each in the policy repo With the growth expected to accelerate rate and the reverse repo rate under the further in the next year, capacity LAF on March 19, 2010. constraints will re-emerge, which are 40. The monetary policy response expected to exert further pressure on in India since October 2009 has prices. Inflation expectations also remain been calibrated to India’s specific at an elevated level. There is, therefore, a macroeconomic conditions. Accordingly, need to ensure that demand side inflation our policy stance for 2010-11 has been does not become entrenched. guided by the following three major Third, notwithstanding lower budgeted considerations: government borrowings in 2010-11 than First, recovery is consolidating. The quick in the year before, fresh issuance of rebound of growth during 2009-10 despite securities will be 36.3 per cent higher than failure of monsoon rainfall suggests that in the previous year. This presents a the Indian economy has become resilient. dilemma for the Reserve Bank. While Growth in 2010-11 is projected to be monetary policy considerations demand higher and more broad-based than in that surplus liquidity should be absorbed, 2009-10. In its Third Quarter Review in debt management considerations warrant January 2010, the Reserve Bank had supportive liquidity conditions. The indicated that our main monetary policy Reserve Bank, therefore, has to do a instruments are at levels that are more fine balancing act and ensure that while consistent with a crisis situation than with absorbing excess liquidity, the a fast recovering economy. In the government borrowing programme is not emerging scenario, lower policy rates hampered. 10
  • 11. 41. Against this backdrop, the stance ∑ Actively manage liquidity to ensure of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank that the growth in demand for credit is intended to: by both the private and public sectors is satisfied in a non-disruptive ∑ Anchor inflation expectations, way. while being prepared to respond appropriately, swiftly and effectively ∑ Maintain an interest rate regime to further build-up of inflationary consistent with price, output and pressures. financial stability. IV. Monetary Measures 42. On the basis of the current (NDTL) effective the fortnight assessment and in line with the policy beginning April 24, 2010. stance as outlined in Section III, the 47. As a result of the increase in the Reserve Bank announces the following CRR, about Rs. 12,500 crore of excess policy measures: liquidity will be absorbed from the system. Bank Rate 48. The Reserve Bank will continue to 43. The Bank Rate has been retained monitor macroeconomic conditions, at 6.0 per cent. particularly the price situation, closely and take further action as warranted. Repo Rate Expected Outcomes 44. It has been decided to: 49. The expected outcomes of the ∑ increase the repo rate under the actions are: Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 5.0 per cent (i) Inflation will be contained and to 5.25 per cent with immediate inflationary expectations will be effect. anchored. Reverse Repo Rate (ii) The recovery process will be sustained. 45. It has been decided to: (iii) Government borrowing requirements ∑ increase the reverse repo rate under and the private credit demand will be the LAF by 25 basis points from 3.5 met. per cent to 3.75 per cent with immediate effect. (iv) Policy instruments will be further aligned in a manner consistent with Cash Reserve Ratio the evolving state of the economy. 46. It has been decided to: First Quarter Review of Monetary ∑ increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR) Policy 2010-11 of scheduled banks by 25 basis points 50. The First Quarter Review of from 5.75 per cent to 6.0 per cent of Monetary Policy for 2010-11 will be their net demand and time liabilities announced on July 27, 2010. 11
  • 12. Part B. Developmental and Regulatory Policies 51. The global financial crisis has maintain financial stability. This process underscored the importance of pursuing has now become more intensive with a financial sector policies in the broader focus on drawing appropriate lessons from context of financial stability and to serve the global financial crisis and putting in the interests of the real economy. A major place a regulatory regime that is alert to lesson is that no indicator or action is possible build-up of financial imbalances. foolproof, which points to the need for The focus of the Reserve Bank’s continuous monitoring, regular review of regulation will continue to be to improve processes, proactive oversight and the efficiency of the banking sector pre-emptive actions. Thus, periodic while maintaining financial stability. assessment of regulatory comforts and Simultaneously, it will vigorously pursue effective supervision are critical elements the financial inclusion agenda to make for developing the financial sector on a financial sector development more sound footing. inclusive. 52. Over the last several years, the 53. A synopsis of the action taken on Reserve Bank has undertaken the past policy announcements together wide-ranging financial sector reforms to with a list of fresh policy measures is set improve financial intermediation and out below. I. Financial Stability Financial Stability Report stability standpoint. The FSR observed that the banks remained well-capitalised 54. As announced in the Annual Policy with higher core capital and sustainable Statement of April 2009, the Reserve Bank financial leverage. Further, stress tests for established a Financial Stability Unit in credit and market risk confirmed banks’ August 2009 for carrying out periodic resilience to withstand high stress. The stress testing and for preparing financial FSR also emphasised the need for stability reports. evolving a stronger supervisory regime for 55. The first Financial Stability Report systemically important non-deposit taking (FSR) was released on March 25, non-banking financial companies 2010. This Report is an attempt at (NBFCs-ND-SI) and strengthening the institutionalising the focus on financial monitoring and oversight framework for stability and making it an integral part of systemically important financial the policy framework. The first FSR conglomerates. Overall risk to financial makes an assessment of the strength of the stability was found to be limited. financial sector, with particular focus on However, the recent financial turmoil has banks, and has raised some concerns, clearly demonstrated that financial including rising inflation, high stability cannot be taken for granted, and government borrowings and likely surge that the maintenance of financial stability in capital flows, from the financial requires constant vigilance, especially 12
  • 13. during normal times to detect and mitigate forward, the Financial Stability Reports any incipient signs of instability. Going will be published half-yearly. II. Interest Rate Policy Base Rate: Introduction Group and the suggestions from various stakeholders, the draft guidelines on Base 56. As indicated in the Annual Policy Rate were placed on the Reserve Bank’s Statement of April 2009, the Reserve Bank website in February 2010. constituted a Working Group on Benchmark Prime Lending Rate 57. In the light of the comments/ (Chairman: Shri Deepak Mohanty) to suggestions received, it has been decided review the present benchmark prime to mandate banks to switch over to the lending rate (BPLR) system and suggest system of Base Rate from July 1, 2010. changes to make credit pricing more Guidelines on the Base Rate system were transparent. The Working Group issued on April 9, 2010. It is expected that submitted its report in October 2009 and the Base Rate system will facilitate better the same was placed on the Reserve pricing of loans, enhance transparency in Bank’s website for public comments. lending rates and improve the assessment Based on the recommendations of the of transmission of monetary policy. III. Financial Markets Financial Market Products Regulation of Non-Convertible Interest Rate Futures Debentures (NCDs) of Maturity of Less than One Year 58. The Interest Rate Futures contract on 10-year notional coupon bearing 59. As indicated in the Second Quarter Government of India security was Review of October 2009, the draft introduced on August 31, 2009. Based guidelines on the regulation of on the market feedback and the non-convertible debentures (NCDs) recommendations of the Technical of maturity of less than one year Advisory Committee (TAC) on the Money, were placed on the Reserve Bank’s Foreign Exchange and Government website on November 3, 2009 for Securities Markets, it is proposed: comments/feedback. The comments/ feedback received were examined and also ∑ to introduce Interest Rate Futures on deliberated by the TAC on the Money, 5-year and 2-year notional coupon Foreign Exchange and Government bearing securities and 91-day Securities Markets. Accordingly, it is Treasury Bills. The RBI-SEBI proposed: Standing Technical Committee will finalise the product design ∑ to issue the final guidelines on and operational modalities for the issuance of NCDs of maturity less introduction of these products on the than one year by end-June 2010. exchanges. 13
  • 14. Introduction of Credit Default Swaps ∑ to permit the recognised stock (CDS) exchanges to introduce plain vanilla 60. As indicated in the Second Quarter currency options on spot US Dollar/ Review of October 2009, the Reserve Rupee exchange rate for residents. Bank constituted an internal Working 63. The risk management and Group to finalise the operational operational guidelines will be finalised by framework for introduction of plain the RBI-SEBI Standing Technical vanilla over-the-counter (OTC) single- Committee. name CDS for corporate bonds for Separate Trading for Registered Interest resident entities subject to appropriate and Principal of Securities (STRIPS): safeguards. The Group is in the process Status of finalising a framework suitable for the Indian market, based on consultations with 64. As indicated in the Annual Policy market participants/experts and study of Statement for 2009-10, the draft international experience. Accordingly, it guidelines on stripping/reconstitution of is proposed: government securities prepared in ∑ to place the draft report of the internal consultation with market participants were Working Group on the Reserve placed on the Reserve Bank’s website on Bank’s website by end-July 2010. May 14, 2009 for comments and feedback. Taking into consideration the feedback Guidelines on Forex Derivatives received on the draft guidelines, the final 61. As indicated in the Second Quarter guidelines on stripping/reconstitution of Review of October 2009, the draft government securities were issued on guidelines on OTC foreign exchange March 25, 2010. The guidelines, which derivatives were placed on the Reserve came into effect from April 1, 2010, will Bank’s website on November 12, 2009 for enable market participants to strip/ public comments. The feedback received reconstitute eligible Government of India from stakeholders and industry dated securities through the negotiated associations was discussed in the meeting dealing system (NDS) subject to certain of the TAC on the Money, Foreign terms and conditions. Exchange and Government Securities Corporate Bond Market Markets. On the basis of the discussions, it is proposed: 65. In the recent period, the Reserve Bank initiated several measures to develop ∑ to issue final guidelines by end-June the corporate bond market as detailed 2010. below: Introduction of Exchange-Traded (i) To facilitate settlement of secondary Currency Option Contracts market trades in corporate bonds 62. Currently, residents in India are on a delivery versus payment-1 permitted to trade in futures contracts in (DVP-1) basis on the Real Time Gross four currency pairs on two recognised Settlement (RTGS) system, stock exchanges. In order to expand the the National Securities Clearing menu of tools for hedging currency risk, Corporation Limited (NSCCL) and it has been decided: the Indian Clearing Corporation 14
  • 15. Limited (ICCL) have been permitted years under the held to maturity to maintain transitory pooling (HTM) category. accounts with the Reserve Bank. Investment in Unlisted Non-SLR Further, guidelines have been issued Securities to all Reserve Bank regulated entities to mandatorily clear and settle all 67. In terms of extant instructions, OTC trades in corporate bonds using banks’ investments in unlisted non-SLR the above arrangement with effect securities should not exceed 10 per cent from December 1, 2009. of their total investments in non-SLR securities as on March 31 of the previous (ii) To facilitate the development of an year. Since there is a time lag between active repo market in corporate bonds, issuance and listing of security, banks may the guidelines for repo transactions in not be able to participate in primary issues corporate debt securities were issued of non-SLR securities, which are proposed on January 8, 2010. The guidelines, to be listed but not listed at the time of which came into force with effect subscription. In view of the above, it is from March 1, 2010, will enable repo proposed that: in listed corporate debt securities rated ‘AA’ or above. Fixed Income ∑ investment in non-SLR debt securities Money Market and Derivatives (both primary and secondary market) Association of India (FIMMDA) is by banks where the security is working on the development of proposed to be listed on the reporting platform and also on the Exchange(s) may be considered as Global Master Repo Agreement to investment in listed security at the operationalise the repo in corporate time of making investment. bonds. 68. If such security, however, is not Non-SLR Bonds of companies engaged in listed within the period specified, the same infrastructure: Valuation will be reckoned for the 10 per cent limit specified for unlisted non-SLR securities. 66. At present, banks’ investments in In case such investment included under non-SLR bonds are classified either under unlisted non-SLR securities lead to a held for trading (HFT) or available for sale breach of the 10 per cent limit, the bank (AFS) category and subjected to ‘mark to would not be allowed to make further market’ requirements. Considering that investment in non-SLR securities (both the long-term bonds issued by companies primary and secondary market, including engaged in infrastructure activities are unrated bonds issued for financing generally held by banks for a long period infrastructure activities) till such time the and not traded and also with a view to limit is reached. incentivising banks to invest in such Financial Market Infrastructure bonds, it is proposed: Reporting Platform for Certificates of ∑ to allow banks to classify their Deposit (CDs) and Commercial Papers investments in non-SLR bonds (CPs) issued by companies engaged in infrastructure activities and having a 69. Although there is a large CD and minimum residual maturity of seven CP market, there is currently little 15
  • 16. transparency in the secondary market regulation, surveillance and transparency trades. In order to promote transparency purposes, it is necessary to extend the in the secondary market transactions for existing reporting arrangement in respect CDs and CPs, it is proposed: of IRS to all OTC interest rate and forex derivatives. Accordingly, it is proposed: ∑ to introduce a reporting platform for all secondary market transactions in ∑ to set up a Working Group consisting CDs and CPs. of members of the Reserve Bank, the CCIL and market participants to work 70. FIMMDA has been requested to out the modalities for an efficient, start work on developing a platform single point reporting mechanism for similar to its existing platform for all OTC interest rate and forex corporate bonds. Eventually, once the derivative transactions. reporting system stabilises, a settlement mechanism similar to the one introduced Revision of Repo Accounting: Status for the OTC corporate bonds may be put 72. As indicated in the Annual Policy in place. Statement of April 2009, the revised Reporting of OTC Derivative guidelines for accounting of repo/reverse Transactions repo transactions were issued by the Reserve Bank on March 23, 2010. The 71. The issue of transparency and the revised accounting guidelines capture need for information repositories for the economic essence of repo as a transactions in OTC derivatives have collateralised lending and borrowing assumed sharper focus in the post-crisis instrument and not as outright sale and scenario. In India, centralised reporting of purchase. The revised accounting OTC trades in interest rate derivatives guidelines have been made applicable to [interest rate swap (IRS)/forward rate market repo transactions with effect from agreements (FRAs)] commenced in April 1, 2010. These accounting norms August 2007 on the Clearing Corporation will, however, not apply to repo/reverse of India Limited (CCIL) platform. To repo transactions conducted under the capture the trade data pertaining to all Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) with OTC derivative transactions for the Reserve Bank. IV. Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion Credit Flow to the MSE Sector ∑ to mandate banks not to insist on collateral security in case of loans up Credit Guarantee Scheme for MSEs to Rs.10 lakh as against the present 73. Following the recommendations of limit of Rs.5 lakh extended to all units the Working Group (Chairman: Shri V. K. of the micro and small enterprises Sharma) on credit guarantee scheme of the (MSEs) sector. Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro High Level Task Force on MSMEs and Small Enterprises (CGFTMSE), it is 74. A High Level Task Force was proposed: constituted by the Government of India 16
  • 17. (Chairman: Shri T.K.A. Nair) to consider Co-operative Credit Institutions various issues raised by micro, small (Chairman: Prof.A.Vaidyanathan) and in and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and consultation with the state governments, draw up an agenda for action. The Task the Government of India had approved a Force submitted its Report on January 30, package for revival of the short-term 2010 to the Government of India. The Task rural co-operative credit structure. As Force recommended several measures envisaged in the package, so far 25 States having a bearing on the functioning of have entered into Memoranda MSMEs, viz., credit, marketing, labour, of Understanding (MoU) with the exit policy, infrastructure/technology/skill Government of India and the National development and taxation. In particular, Bank for Agriculture and Rural it recommended that: (i) all scheduled Development (NABARD). Fourteen commercial banks should achieve a 20 per States have made necessary amendments cent year-on-year growth in credit to to their respective Co-operative Societies micro and small enterprises to ensure Acts. As on December 31, 2009, an enhanced credit flow; (ii) any shortfall in aggregate amount of about Rs.7,000 crore the achievement of sub-target of 60 per was released by the NABARD as cent for lending to micro enterprises of Government of India’s share under the the total advances granted to the micro and package to primary agricultural credit small enterprises, would also be taken into societies (PACS) in 11 States. account for the purpose of allocating Financial Inclusion through Grass-root amounts for contribution to rural Co-operatives infrastructure development fund (RIDF) or any other Fund with other financial 77. There is a need for better institutions as specified by the Reserve understanding of the grass-root level Bank, with effect from April 1, 2010; and rural co-operatives, which can play a (iii) all scheduled commercial banks more effective role as vehicles of should achieve a 15 per cent annual financial inclusion. Besides, a large growth in the number of micro enterprise number of PACS, large adivasi multi- accounts. purpose co-operative societies (LAMPS) and farmers’ service societies (FSS), a 75. Banks are urged to keep in number of thrift and credit co-operative view the recommendations made by the societies have been set up under the Task Force and take effective steps to parallel Self-Reliant Co-operative increase the flow of credit to the MSE Societies Acts in some States. There is a sector, particularly to micro enterprises. need to understand the operations of The Reserve Bank will monitor the these co-operative societies with performance of banks in this regard. reference to their membership profile, Rural Co-operative Banks management structure, range of services being offered by them, savings mobilised Revival of Rural Co-operative Credit from members/non-members, percentage Structure of non-borrower members, credit 76. Based on the recommendations extended to tenant farmers, oral lessees of the Task Force on Revival of Rural and agricultural labourers to appreciate 17
  • 18. the strengths of the well-functioning over 2,000. The Reserve Bank will discuss societies and their potential as an FIPs with individual banks and monitor effective vehicle of financial inclusion. their implementation. It is, therefore, proposed: Business Correspondents: Relaxations ∑ to constitute a Committee 79. Under the extant guidelines on the comprising representatives from the business correspondent (BC) model, only Reserve Bank, the NABARD and a certain select categories of individuals are few State Governments to study the permitted to be engaged as BCs. With a functioning of well-run PACS, view to providing more flexibility to LAMPS, FSS and thrift and credit co- banks, it is proposed: operative societies set up under the parallel Self-Reliant Co-operative ∑ to permit banks to engage any Societies Acts to gather information individual, including those operating on their working and assess their Common Service Centres (CSCs), as potential to contribute to financial BC, subject to banks’ comfort level inclusion. and their carrying out suitable due diligence. Financial Inclusion Plan for Banks 80. Operational guidelines to banks in 78. With a view to increasing banking this regard will be issued separately. penetration and promoting financial inclusion, domestic commercial banks, 81. Furthermore, a suggestion has both in the public and private sectors, were been received from various quarters to advised to take some specific actions. consider ‘for profit’ companies (other than First, banks were required to put in place NBFCs) as BCs of banks. Keeping in view a Board-approved Financial Inclusion the ramifications of the suggestion, it is Plan (FIP) in order to roll them out over proposed: the next three years and submit the same ∑ to prepare a discussion paper on the to the Reserve Bank by March 2010. subject which will be placed on the Banks were advised to devise FIPs Reserve Bank’s website. Based on the congruent with their business strategy and feedback, a final view will be taken to make it an integral part of their in the matter. corporate plans. The Reserve Bank has deliberately not imposed a uniform model High Level Committee on Lead Bank so that each bank is able to build its own Scheme strategy in line with its business model 82. On the basis of the and comparative advantage. Second, recommendations of the High Level banks were required to include criteria on Committee on Lead Bank Scheme financial inclusion in the performance (Chairperson: Smt. Usha Thorat), the State evaluation of their field staff. Third, banks Level Bankers’ Committee (SLBC) were advised to draw up a roadmap by convenor banks were advised on March 2010 to provide banking services November 27, 2009 that the lead banks in every village having a population of should constitute a sub-committee of the 18
  • 19. District Consultative Committees (DCCs) ∑ to expand the terms of reference of to draw up a roadmap by March 2010 to the Working Group to also review the provide banking services through a pros and cons of inclusion of bank banking outlet in every village having a lending to micro-finance institutions population of over 2,000. Such banking (MFIs) under priority sector lending. services need not necessarily be extended The Group is expected to submit its through a brick and mortar branch but Report by end-June 2010. through any of the various forms of Urban Co-operative Banks information and communication technology (ICT)-based models, including Establishment of New Urban through business correspondents (BCs). Co-operative Banks Based on the other recommendations of 84. Taking into account the systemic the Committee, the lead banks/scheduled financial health of urban commercial banks were advised on co-operative banks (UCBs), it was March 2, 2010 to (i) strengthen various decided in 2004 not to set up any new fora under the Lead Bank Scheme; UCBs. With a view to improving the (ii) discuss specific issues enabling and financial soundness of the UCB sector, inhibiting financial inclusion in the SLBC/ memoranda of understanding (MoU) were DCC machinery; (iii) set up separate signed with all State Governments. sub-committees to work intensively on Following the consolidation, the financial specific issues; and (iv) prepare district condition of the UCB sector has improved credit plans/annual credit plans linked considerably and UCBs have also been with the business plans of the banks. For allowed to enter into new areas of this purpose, it is proposed: business. With a view to increasing the ∑ to put in place an appropriate coverage of banking services amongst monitoring mechanism of the working local communities, it is proposed: of the SLBCs/DCCs. ∑ to set up a Committee comprising Priority Sector Lending Certificates: all stakeholders for studying Working Group the advisability of granting new urban co-operative banking licences 83. In pursuance of the announcement under Section 22 of the Banking made in the Second Quarter Review of Regulation Act, 1949 [as applicable October 2009, a Working Group on to co-operative societies (AACS)]. Introduction of Priority Sector Lending Certificates (PSLCs) (Chairman: Liberalisation of Off-site ATMs by Shri V. K. Sharma) was constituted by the UCBs Reserve Bank in November 2009 to 85. Under the extant policy of branch examine the pros and cons of the authorisation, UCBs, which are recommendation made by the Committee well-managed and meet the regulatory on Financial Sector Reforms (Chairman: criteria, are required to submit annual Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan) relating to PSLCs business plans, based on which centres are and make suitable recommendations on its allotted to them according to their choice introduction and their trading in the open for opening of branches. Centres where market. In this context, it is proposed: UCBs desire to open off-site ATMs are 19
  • 20. also required to be included in their annual to follow for their dealing with individual business plan. In order to further improve customers. the banking infrastructure, it has been 89. However, within the domain of decided to liberalise the approach to necessary freedom to banks to choose setting up of off-site ATMs by UCBs. the types of services to be offered to the Accordingly, it is proposed: customers and related costs, concerted ∑ to allow well-managed UCBs to set efforts need to be made to further up off-site ATMs without seeking d e v e l o p a c r e d i b l e a n d e ff e c t i v e approval through the annual business f u n c t i o n a l s y s t e m o f a t t e n d i n g to customer complaints. In particular, plans. banks’ internal structure needs to be 86. Detailed guidelines in this regard made functionally effective and scaled will be issued by mid-May 2010. up to attend to not only basic customer needs, but the special needs of Customer Service disadvantaged groups such as 87. The issue of ‘treating customers pensioners and small borrowers, fairly’ is assuming critical importance as including farmers. Though there exists the experience shows that consumer’s a tiered mechanism for customer interests are often not accorded full grievance redressal in the banks, its protection and properly attended to. e ff i c a c y i n t e r m s o f a t t e n d i n g t o Customer service in the banking industry customer complaints is far from is increasingly becoming important as satisfactory. Taking into account all these considerations, it is proposed: banks are privileged institutions and banking is a special public utility service. ∑ to set up a Committee to look into The Reserve Bank and the Banking banking services rendered to retail Ombudsman’s offices have been receiving and small customers, including several complaints regarding levying of pensioners. The Committee will also excessive interest rates and charges on look into the system of grievance certain loans and advances. redressal mechanism prevalent in banks, its structure and efficacy, and 88. The Reserve Bank has, over the suggest measures for expeditious years, undertaken a number of initiatives resolution of complaints. The for ensuring fair treatment to customers. Committee will also examine the This has taken the form of both regulatory international experiences in this fiats (such as reining in of recovery agents, regard. introduction of comprehensive display ∑ to further strengthen the mechanism, board, banking facilities for the visually for implementing the Reserve Bank’s challenged, rationalisation of service guidelines on customer service, charges on collection of outstation through on-site and off-site cheques and free use of ATMs) as also inspections. moral suasion and class action. The Code ∑ to require banks to devote exclusive of Bank’s Commitment to Customers was time in a Board meeting once every introduced in July 2006 to set a minimum six months to review and deliberate standard of banking practices for banks on customer service. 20
  • 21. V. Regulatory and Supervisory Measures for Commercial Banks Strengthening the Resilience of the implementation of enhancements and Banking Sector revisions to Basel-II framework finalised by the Basel Committee in July 2009. 90. In December 2009, the Basel Accordingly, the Reserve Bank issued Committee on Banking Supervision guidelines to banks in February 2010. (BCBS) had issued two consultative These guidelines require banks to make documents for public comments. The specified valuation adjustments for document on ‘Strengthening the various risks/costs in their portfolios Resilience of the Banking Sector’ contains including derivatives, which are subject proposals for raising the quality, to ‘mark to market’ requirement and also consistency and transparency of the for illiquidity of these positions. These capital base, enhancing risk coverage, guidelines also permit banks to follow any prescribing leverage ratio and containing recognised models/methods for computing pro-cyclicality. The second document on the amount of valuation adjustment. In ‘International Framework for Liquidity order to ensure that a consistent Risk Measurement Standards and methodology is adopted by banks for the Monitoring’ focuses on measures for purpose, it is proposed: further elevating the resilience of internationally active banks to liquidity ∑ to constitute a Working Group with stress across the globe as well as members from the Reserve Bank, increasing international harmonisation of FIMMDA, the IBA and a few banks liquidity risk supervision. The Basel to recommend an appropriate Committee is presently undertaking a framework in this regard. Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) of these Convergence of Indian Accounting proposals. The QIS will form the basis for Standards with International Financial calibrating reforms proposed in the above Reporting Standards two documents to arrive at an appropriate 92. As part of the efforts to ensure level and quality of capital and liquidity. convergence of the Indian Accounting The fully calibrated set of standards is Standards (IASs) with the International expected to be developed by end-2010 Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs), with the aim of implementation by the roadmap for banking companies and end of 2012. Ten large Indian banks are non-banking financial companies participating in the QIS. (NBFCs) has been finalised by the Working Group on Valuation Ministry of Corporate Affairs in Adjustment and Treatment of Illiquid consultation with the Reserve Bank. As Positions per the roadmap, all scheduled commercial banks will convert their 91. In the Second Quarter Review of opening balance sheet as at April 1, 2013 October 2009, it was proposed to issue in compliance with the IFRS converged appropriate guidelines to banks for IASs. 21
  • 22. 93. However, with regard to UCBs and preparing banks and other entities to NBFCs, a gradualist approach is adhere to the roadmap. considered appropriate. The roadmap envisages UCBs having net worth in Infrastructure Financing excess of Rs. 300 crore and NBFCs which 95. With a view to meeting the are part of NSE-Nifty 50 and BSE-Sensex increasing financing needs of 30 as well as those NBFCs having net infrastructure development, the Reserve worth in excess of Rs.1,000 crore to Bank has taken a number of measures to converge with IFRSs in tandem with the facilitate adequate flow of bank credit to time schedule given for scheduled this sector. In order to give a further thrust commercial banks. UCBs having net to infrastructure financing by banks, some worth in excess of Rs. 200 crore but not further measures are felt necessary. exceeding Rs. 300 crore and other listed 96. In terms of extant instructions, NBFCs as well as unlisted NBFCs having rights, licenses and authorisations of a net worth in excess of Rs. 500 crore shall borrowers, charged to banks as collateral convert their opening balance sheets as on in respect of project loans (including April 1, 2014 in compliance with the IFRS infrastructure projects) are not eligible for converged IASs. Remaining UCBs, being reckoned as tangible security for the unlisted NBFCs not falling in the above purpose of classifying an advance as categories and regional rural banks secured loan. As toll collection rights and (RRBs) need to follow only the notified annuities in the case of road/highway IASs which are not converged with IFRSs. projects confer certain material benefits 94. Considering the amount of work to lenders, it is proposed: involved in the convergence process, it is ∑ to treat annuities under build-operate- expected that banks and other entities transfer (BOT) model in respect of concurrently initiate appropriate measures road/highway projects and toll to upgrade their skills, management collection rights, where there are information system (MIS) and information provisions to compensate the project technology (IT) capabilities to manage the sponsor if a certain level of traffic is complexities and challenges of IFRSs. The not achieved, as tangible securities implementation poses additional subject to the condition that banks’ challenge as certain aspects of IFRSs, right to receive annuities and toll especially the standards on financial collection rights is legally enforceable instruments, are under review and would and irrevocable. take some time before they are finalised. In order to facilitate smooth migration to 97. Till June 2004, the Reserve Bank IFRSs, it is proposed: had prescribed a limit on banks’ unsecured exposures. As a step towards deregulation, ∑ to undertake a study of the the above limit was withdrawn to enable implications of the IFRSs banks’ Boards to formulate their own convergence process and also to issue policies on unsecured exposures. The operational guidelines as appropriate. provisioning requirement for unsecured ∑ to disseminate information through sub-standard exposures, however, was learning programmes with a view to increased to 20 per cent consequent to the 22
  • 23. withdrawal of limits on banks’ unsecured the one-mode presence criterion. The exposures (the provisioning requirement WOS was to be treated on par with the for secured sub-standard exposures stands existing branches of foreign banks for at 10 per cent). In view of certain branch expansion in India. No foreign safeguards such as escrow accounts bank, however, applied to establish itself available in respect of infrastructure as a WOS or to convert to a WOS during lending, it is proposed that: the first phase. ∑ infrastructure loan accounts classified 99. When the revision of presence of as sub-standard will attract a foreign banks in India was due in April provisioning of 15 per cent instead of 2009, the global financial markets were the current prescription of 20 per cent. in turmoil and there were uncertainties To avail of this benefit of lower surrounding the financial strength of provisioning, banks should have in banks around the world. Accordingly, the place an appropriate mechanism to Annual Policy Statement of April 2009 indicated the intent to continue with the escrow the cash flows and also have current policy and procedures governing a clear and legal first claim on such the presence of foreign banks in India and cash flows. to review its roadmap after due Presence of Foreign Banks consultation with the stakeholders once 98. In February 2005, the Reserve there was greater clarity regarding Bank had released the ‘roadmap for stability and recovery of the global presence of foreign banks in India’ laying financial system. out a two-track and gradualist approach 100. While global financial markets aimed at increasing the efficiency and have been improving, various stability of the banking sector in India. The international fora have been engaged in first track was the consolidation of the setting out policy frameworks domestic banking system, both in the incorporating the lessons learnt from the private and public sectors, and the second crisis. Some of the lessons from crisis are track was the gradual enhancement of to avoid organisational structures which foreign banks in a synchronised manner. become (i) too big to fail and (ii) too The roadmap was divided into two phases, complex to fail. Furthermore, while there the first phase spanning the period March is a realisation that as international 2005 – March 2009, and the second phase agreement on cross-border resolution beginning after a review of the experience mechanism for internationally active gained in the first phase. In the first phase, banks is not likely to be reached in the foreign banks wishing to establish near future, there is considerable merit presence in India for the first time could in subsidiarisation of significant either choose to operate through branch cross-border presence. Apart from easing presence or set up a 100 per cent the resolution process, this will also wholly-owned subsidiary (WOS), provide greater regulatory control and following the one-mode presence comfort to the host jurisdictions. Drawing criterion. Foreign banks already operating lessons from the crisis, it is proposed: in India were also allowed to convert their ∑ to prepare a discussion paper on the existing branches to WOS while following mode of presence of foreign banks 23
  • 24. through branch or WOS by September conglomerates and better insulation of a 2010. bank from the reputational and other risks of the subsidiaries/affiliates within the Licensing of New Banks group. The Committee on Financial Sector 101. The Finance Minister, in his Assessment (CFSA), in its report issued budget speech on February 26, 2010 in March 2009, observed that given the announced that the Reserve Bank lack of clarity in the existing statutes was considering giving some additional relating to the regulation and supervision banking licenses to private sector players. of financial holding companies, the NBFCs could also be considered, holding company structure as prevalent in if they meet the Reserve Bank’s the US for financial conglomerates is not eligibility criteria. In line with the above currently in use in India. The Committee announcement, it is proposed: noted that the absence of the holding company structure in financial ∑ to prepare a discussion paper conglomerates exposes investors, marshalling the international depositors and the parent company to practices, the Indian experience as risks, strains the parent company’s ability also the extant ownership and to fund its own core business and could governance (O&G) guidelines and restrict the growth of the subsidiary place it on the Reserve Bank’s business. Considering the complexity of website by end-July 2010 for wider the issues involved and implications of the comments and feedback. BHC/FHC model for the financial system in general and banking system in 102. Thereafter, detailed discussions particular, it is proposed: will be held with all stakeholders on the discussion paper and guidelines will be ∑ to constitute a Working Group with finalised based on the feedback. All the representatives from the applications received in this regard would Government, the Reserve Bank, the be referred to an external expert group for SEBI, the IRDA and the IBA to examination and recommendations to the recommend a roadmap for the Reserve Bank for granting licenses. introduction of a holding company structure together with the required Introduction of Bank Holding legislative amendment/framework. Company (BHC)/Financial Holding Conversion of Term Deposits, Daily Company (FHC) in India Deposits or Recurring Deposits for 103. The Reserve Bank placed a Reinvestment in Term Deposits Discussion Paper on Holding Companies 104. As per extant guidelines, banks in Banking Groups on its website in should allow conversion of term deposits, August 2007 for public comments. The daily deposits or recurring deposits to feedback received on the Discussion Paper enable depositors to immediately reinvest underscored the need for introduction of the amount lying in the aforesaid deposits bank holding companies (BHCs)/financial with the same bank in another term holding companies (FHCs) in India to deposit. Banks are required to pay interest ensure an orderly growth of financial in respect of such term deposits without 24