1. Introduction to Scenario Strategy Development

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An introduction to VCI
Strategy
Innovation
Technical
Challenges
Need + Idea +
Implementation
Capabilities
Organization Design
Strategy Organization
Innovation

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Global and local clients focused on performance and growth
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The classical metaphor: A Turkey flock is fed for a 1000 days—every day the Turkey
analyst confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about Turkey
welfare "with increased statistical significance". On the 1001st day, the turkeys have a
surprise.
The Leveraged Market’s MeltdownWhy naïve planning fails

5. Change is truly the only constant
Economic Change
•Trade liberalization
•Deregulation
• Expansion of the global
marketplace
Logistical Change
• Real-time planning
• Intermodal freight
• Transport hub and
spoke
Asia
Europe
N. America
Africa
S. America
Australia

6. The strategic dilemma: we must plan for the future
Present
2 Years
Scenarios
“We can barely see
the near future…” “What could
impact us in
5-10 years?
“Plan for it and leave
space…”
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Markets,
consumers,
products, logsitics
GlobalizationTechnology
Technology Networks

7. We discount single point forecasts to deal with uncertainty
+10%
-10%
Forecast Planning
Planning for One future
Scenario Planning
Planning for Multiple futures
Undermined by uncertainty Embraces uncertainty
Today’s knowns and
uncertainties
Today’s knowns
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8. Case study: energy scenarios
EconomicGrowth
Environmental Constraints DynamicAnti-Fossil
Blocs
Globalization
Access to the right
resources & ability
to develop faster
than competition
Diversified Players
and Mega Solos win
Decline in seaborne
trade as local
solutions become
strategic
High fragmentation
with many new
entrants in play

9. And work backwards to develop and value options
Identifying strategic options And applying rigorous option valuation

10. Then create a scenario based strategy
Hedge
Big bet
Invest now
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This often takes us in new directions
Brand Position
Stakeholder Management
Investment Decisions
Innovation
Scenario Strategy
Business Model Design

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• Brand Positioning
• Brand and Product Architecture
• Brand Equity Management
• Brand Portfolio Management
• Living the Brand
Brand
Marketing
Demand Driven
Strategy
Innovation
• Messaging Architecture
• Marketing Activation
(In and Out of Store)
• Touchpoint Analysis
• Demand-Based Innovation Model
• Innovation Roadmapping
• Ideation & Prototyping
• Concept Development & Evaluation
• Customer Demand Landscape
• Demand-Based Segmentation
• Demand-Based Growth Platforms
Customer
Demand
Scenarios inform today’s go to market strategy

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• Life as a turkey is not a long one.
• Change is constant so companies need to think beyond straight line forecasts and
predictions.
• Scenarios are an extremely useful way to think about the future.
• From scenarios we can understand our options – key is rigorous option analysis for
strategy creation.
• Once the long term strategy has been designed this leads to ensuring the right:
– Business model.
– Brand position.
– Stakeholder management strategy.
– Investment Decisions.
– Innovation Potential.
Key takeaways

14. VCI New York Leadership
Gideon is a founding partner of
Virtual Consulting International.
Gideon started his consulting career as
an internal consultant for Anglo American
Corporation in the 1990s. From there he migrated to
the U.S.A. and since 1994 has worked as a consultant
focusing on strategic positioning and large scale change
projects.
His specialty is applying Scenario Planning to leverage
competencies, optimize asset utilization and to
structure appropriate growth strategies. He has been
consistently and progressively dealing with business
issues in a broad range of industries where he acts as a
strategy specialist. His unique Scenario Planning
process has become a benchmark for strategic
planning and large scale change management.
Most of his project include the development of growth
options including new markets, managing risk and
growth through acquisition.
Jeff is a Managing Director at Virtual
Consulting International. He joined VCI out of Rio Tinto
where he most recently led African business
development efforts for the company and
acted as a transaction / investment advisor. Prior to his
work in Africa he developed marketing, product and
corporate strategies for Rio Tinto Industrial Minerals. In
addition to his experience in the mining industry, he has
worked on strategy and change projects in a variety of
industries including automotive, technology, medical and
start-up companies.
Recently he has worked on developing VCI’s innovation
practice.
He has experience in bringing strategic insight and
problem solving skills to bare on complicated issues at
companies of all sizes - from startups to the world’s largest
companies. His experience covers product and corporate
strategy development, new market entry, risk
management and mergers and acquisitions
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15. Gideon Malherbe
Gideon@govci.com
+1 914 381 0000
One Depot Plaza
Mamaroneck, NY 10606
USA
15 Confidential ©2013 Virtual Consulting International
Jeff Loehr
jeff@govci.com
+1 206 450 8028
One Depot Plaza
Mamaroneck, NY 10606
USA