n/a

1. Better decisions, faster for non-profits
Jay Fuller
NPOGROW
+

2. What they do:
1. NPO consulting
2. Sell their analytics platform
What they need:
A revenue prediction
model

3. ?
?
?
?
?
Where can a NPO expand and hit
their revenue target?

4. the data:
revenue for 874 NPOs
$2.1M
$1.7M
$4.9M
$1.2M
$0.4M

5. Estimates of philanthropic market using GDP.
<$1M $10B<

6. Philanthropic market predicts within-NPO revenue.
Philanthropic market ($M)Philanthropic market ($M)
Philanthropicrevenue($M)

7. But what about NPOs with only a few locations?
Philanthropic market ($M)Philanthropic market ($M)
Philanthropicrevenue($M)
?

8. the data:
revenue for 874 NPOs
approach:
estimate probability
distribution for each
market
$2.1M
$1.7M
$4.9M
$1.2M
$0.4M
PSF
PSEA

9. Revenue ($M)
#ofNPOs
Lognormal
distribution
Likelihoodof
missingtarget
Bootstrapped
95%
confidence
intervals
Revenue ($M)
Likelihoodof
hittingtarget
New York Distribution
(PNY)
Cumulative distribution function
Survival function
C
D
A
B

10. 30% of NPOs
in NYC raise
>$5M
New York
Input: $5M
revenue target
Risk estimate using a survival function
Revenue ($M)
Likelihood of
hitting target

11. Plug in any revenue target to get the probability
of hitting it$ Millions
Cities where you are most likely to your
revenue target
Demo

12. about me: PhD, neuroscience
How does the brain control movement?

13. thank you!
npogrow.org

15. Philanthropic market predicts philanthropic revenue.
Philanthropic market ($M)
Estimated philanthropic market size
($millions)
Philanthropicrevenue
($millions)

16. Philanthropic market predicts philanthropic revenue.
Philanthropic market ($M)Philanthropic market ($M)
Philanthropicrevenue($M)
?

17. My objective:
Predict the likelihood of reaching a revenue
target in each market
Desired solution properties:
1. Interpretable
2. Stand alone prototype
3. Get better with the data being collected

18. 64%
35%
52%
43%
48%
Where can a NPO expand and hit
their revenue target?

19. Project take-aways:
1. Probabilistic method of estimating
revenue
2. Gets better with the data Room40
is collecting
3. Prototype is driving sales of
business analytics platform

20. Plug in any revenue target to get the probability
of hitting it

21. Optimization
Problem: