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Sustainable Development Compatibility with 1.5 and 2C pathways
- 1. Systems transitions and sustainable development in the Special Report on 1.5°C Heleen de Coninck1, Henri Waisman2 1Department of Environmental Science & IPCC SR1.5 Coordinating Lead Author - Chapter 4 2IDDRI & IPCC SR1.5 Coordinating Lead Author - Chapter 5 COP25 – IPCC Pavilion 1.5C/2C pathways and Sustainable Development 4 December 2019
- 2. * * * -45% CO2 in 2030 Net zero CO2 in 2050 Carbon dioxide removal
- 4. Pathways integrated assessment models Feasibility of options Enabling conditions Synergies and trade-offs Sustainable Development Goals Systems transitions How can we make the systems transitions feasibly happen? How societal goals be maximised while doing 1.5°C-consistent mitigation and adaptation?
- 5. Most synergies by reducing demand for energy, materials and land Robust synergies between 1.5C and … • SDG 3 (health) • SDG 7 (clean energy) • SDG 11 (cities) • SDG 12 (sustainable cons & prod) • SDG 14 (oceans) Risks of trade-offs with SDG 1 (poverty) SDG 2 (hunger) SDG 6 (water access) SDG 7 (energy access)
- 6. How to maximize synergies ? Act fast while anticipating long-term changes To keep the possibility of choices in the future Combine actions from different actors Mobilizing all stakeholders operating at different scales Think within structured strategies Combinations of systemic, dynamic and context-specific actions Coordinate actions International cooperation is a critical enabler for the effectiveness and equity of the transition Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos 6
Editor's Notes
- Presenting highlights of the report which was released on 8 October after six days and several nights of deliberations between the member governments of the IPCC. However, a few notes upfront about the IPCC: IPCC is based on peer-reviewed literature. This is a quality check for the information in the report. But it is also a limitation as it means we cannot assess engineering studies, Policy relevant and not policy prescriptive. So the IPCC is not telling governments what to do. We can provide factual information (like: if you want to stay below 1.5C, emissions will have to be net zero around 2050) Scientific Climate Change panel of the UN. Member governments that determine which reports will be written and what the outline of the report is I am sometimes asked whether the governments dictate what we write. The answer is: no. The report is written by the authors. It is reviewed in two rounds by experts and in one round by governments There is one special thing and that is the Summary for Policymakers (SPM). This document cannot contradict the underlying report but governments agree on it by consensus, and different governments want to emphasise different elements. This turns into a negotiation in which the author’s role is to make sure the underlying report is not contradicted. You could say that this means that governments are having too big of an influence on the messaging of the report. But it also makes the IPCC much more politically influential. Governments have more of a moral obligation to observe what the IPCC has indicated to them. This report is even more special as it’s the first time that the parties to the Paris Agreement have asked the IPCC to write a report that will be used directly in their deliberations at the climate conference in december in Katowice in Poland. There countries will discuss whether the national plans are sufficient and whether they need ratcheting up.