Significance of international hydropower storage Jens Hobohm

Significance of international hydropower storage
for the energy transition
Jens Hobohm, Project manager: jens.hobohm@prognos.com
Florian Ess, Lea Haefke, Marco Wünsch
Berlin, 23 October 2012

Agenda

01 Challenges of the energy transition

02 Comparison of possible solutions

03 Hydro potential in Germany, Scandinavia and the Alps

Transfer capacities between countries under survey –
04
Status quo und prospects

05 Economic potential of storage usage

06 Open questions and conclusions

© 2012 Prognos AG 2

Agenda




04




The expansion of renewable energies is based largely on
volatile energy sources


Residual load curve 2012

Residual load in Germany (load minus renewable feed-in)
Assumption of must-run-capacity: 20 GW
60000
MW

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

Hours
-60000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000



60000
MW

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

Hours
-60000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000



60000
MW

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Hours
-80000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000


The growing share of RES will lead to a potential capacity
surplus in a growing number of hours per year

Sorted yearly annual load curve: RES minus load

60000

MW
2012
2020
40000
2030
Surplus due to fluctuating feed-in
2040
2050
20000
zero line:
load equals feed in of renewables and must-run
0
Necessary controllable power generation

-20000

-40000

hours
-60000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001


Challenges for the power system due to the „Energiewende“
(energy transition)

Description
Capacity More capacity available than can be used at the same time
surpluses
Long-term Controllable power plants are not profitable under current
security of market design
supply
Grid extension Grid extension proceeds too slowly and congestion
and congestion management becomes more important
management

Ancillary Regulating power, current and reactive power controll, short
services circuit capacity, black start capacity
 Short term security of supply, local!


Agenda




04




The mechanics of „indirect storage“

Electricity trade from a
Filling level without interconnector(s) MW Scandinavian perspective
Import
m/
TWh

0
12 24
m³/ Inflow
MW Outflow (power generation)
Export Export
0 12 24


With indirect storage, electricity use will be moved along
the time line – at high efficiency

Filling level with interconnector(s)

m/
TWh

m³/ Inflow
MW Outflow (power generation)

0 12 24


Comparison of options for the integration of electricity
from fluctuating renewable energy sources
Adiabatic Load
Pumped Batteries Load
Interconnectors Heat storage compressed Hydrogen/ management
Technology storage (e.g. Electric management
(indirect storage) systems air energy Methane (households,
hydro plant vehicles) (industry)
storage tertiary sector)

Expected marketability today today 2010 to 2020 today 2020 to 2030 2015 to 2020 today 2020

Implementation time approx. 8 years 2 to 3 years 3 to 5 years 10 years 3 to 5 years 1 year 1 to 10 years 1 year

2,2 to 3,6 GW el
2,7 GW el
(positive)
Application potential 1,4 GW per cable > 700 caverns (planned until unlimited 3 GW el1 2 GW el 3 GW el
4 to 18 GW el
2020)
(negative)

Range (in hours) weeks to months 4 to 24 8 to 16 4 to 8 seasonal 1 to 8 2 to 8 1 to 24

ca. 90%
Efficiency 95%
(from Germany to 60 to 70% 70 to 80% 30 to 40% 75 to 95% - -
(power-to-power) (heat-to-heat)
Germany)

640 (positive),
Investment costs 1,000 1,000 1,500 1,000 depending on depending on
1,400 120 to 350
(EUR/kWel) to 1,500 to 2,000 to 3,000 to 2,000 the process the process
(negative)

Lifetime 20 to 40 years 40 to 60 years 40 years >100 years 30 years 3,000 cycles - -

medium to
Acceptance medium good medium low to medium good medium medium
good

1 Considering 1 Mio. E-vehicles (each with a load of 3 kW) connected to the network at the same time. Depending on the degree of connectivity, 2 to 3 Mio. E-vehicles could be expected.
2 This estimation by Prognos AG describes the situation for Germany. Different estimations concerning the acceptance of pumped storage do exist in the partner countries


Agenda




04




Structure of the installed capacity of electricity generation
in 2010 in GW

180
163,8 GW 21,4 GW 49,1 GW 33,2 GW 18,1 GW

160
Conventional
140
PV
Installed capacity [GW]

120
102 Wind
100
Other RES
80
Pumped-storage
60
17 Hydro
40 3
27
27
2 1
20 7 4
7 1 28 4
7 4 17 2
9 12
0 4
Germany Austria Sweden Norway Switzerland


The storage capacity of the Scandinavian reservoirs is
2,300 times bigger than the German (0,05 TWh)

Maximum hydro storage capacity in Norway, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and
Germany in 2011

TWh

120

SE
100
34
80

60
NO
40 82
CH
20
9 AT 0,05
0 3
Scandinavia Alps Germany


Filling levels of the reservoirs in Norway, weekly values

GWh
80.000

70.000

60.000

50.000

40.000

30.000

20.000

10.000

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Weeks

2010 2011 Average (1998 - 2011)

Source: Own presentation according to Nord Pool Spot


The geographical distribution of the installed capacity of
hydroelectric plants in the provinces should be noted

Legend filling of regions
0 – 999 MW

1,000 – 1,999 MW

2,000 – 2,999 MW

3,000 – 4,200 MW


Agenda




04




There are already a number of interconnectors between
Germany and its neighbouring countries

NO

SE

DKw
DKe

PL
NL
DE
BE
CZ

FR
AT
CH

0 – 1.000 MW

1.000 – 2.000 MW

2.000 – 3.000 MW

3.000 – 3.895 MW


Agenda




04




In times of excess power in Germany, capacities will flow
towards Scandinavia in any case

Sorted yearly annual load curve: RES and must-run minus load

zero line:
load equals feed in of renewables and must-run

hours


Assumptions of the economic efficiency estimation for
interconnectors to Scandinavia

 Starting point: surpluses in Germany and Scandinavia: without storage the
electricity has the value of zero
 Average electricity prices in 2050 (full costs) 90 EUR / MWh
 National long term storage offer for surplus electricity up to 30 EUR/MWh
 Value of the indirect or direct stored electricity in 2050:
90 -30 EUR = 60 Euro2011 pro MWh
 Investment costs (1.400 EUR / kW), credit for provision of power 250 EUR/kW
 Interest rate 8 % for 20 Jahre annuity of 10 %.
 An interconnector has to have a benefit per year of 115.000 EUR2011/MW.
 At a proceed of 60 EUR/MWh the interconnector has to transfer 1.900 hours per
year surplus energy to earn the annuity for the investment costs (115.000 / 60 =
rd.)  conform to 4 GW
 Surpluses from Scandinavia: Up to 20 TWh, thereof 10% to 25% exported by
interconnectors will cause proceeds
 Additional proceeds for ancillary services have not been taken into account


The economic efficiency estimation based on the
evaluation of surpluses

Surplus in 2050
60
GW
50

40

30

20
5 TWh
10

0
1,900 h
-10

-20

-30

-40

-50
Annual hours
-60
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Quelle: Own presentation of Prognos AG


Result of the economic efficiency estimation for
interconnectors to Scandinavia

 4 GW are economical on the basis of the German surpluses only

 If the Scandinavian surpluses are also taken into account, interconnectors with
10 to 15 GW could reach the required full load hours of 1,900

 3 GW already exist remaining potential is 7 to12 GW


Agenda




04




Open questions and need for research

 Future of the design of the EU electricity market

 Modeling of electricity prices with sensitivities, for example with a higher share of
renewables

 How will market prices react on new interconnectors?

 Competition for Scandinavian hydropower resources

 Local provision of ancillary services

 Speed of network expansion – especially from north to south

 When is the expansion of Scandinavian hydro reservoirs necessary?

 Storage roadmap: Which storage facilities will be needed and when?

Conclusion: Hydropower storage can make an important
contribution to the energy transition

 Surplus electricity (2050: 38 TWh), reserve power and ancillary services are the
challenges of the energy transition (electricity)
 Hydropower storage is a efficient option to balance supply and demand – also for
some days and weeks. Locally (200 km) it can also supply ancillary services
 Today s storage capacities in Scandinavia are 2,300 times bigger than the
German capacities and those of the Alps with the factor of 10
 7 to12 GW of new interconnectors between Germany and Scandinavia should be
economic efficiency (estimation of Prognos AG)
 Approx. 10 to 20 TWh (26 to 52%) of the German surplus electricity could be used
 The storage capacities of the Alps could help until 2020 to store surplus electricity
of PV from southern Germany
 Competition and security of supply as well as integration of renewables can be
improved, electricity price peaks would be reduced
 International hydropower storages facilities are relevant for the energy transition,
recommended is a step-by-step expansion


Thank you for your attention!

We provide orientation.
Prognos AG – European Center for
Economic Research and Strategy Consulting

Project manager: Jens Hobohm
Tel: +49 30 520059-242
E-Mail: jens.hobohm@prognos.com

www.prognos.com


Significance of international hydropower storage Jens Hobohm

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