Presentation by Dr. James Hughes (Executive Director, IEET USA) on the occasion of International Future Day Conference, India

1. James J. Hughes Ph.D.
Executive Director, Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies
Public Policy Studies, Trinity College, Hartford CT
James.Hughes@trincoll.edu

2. We are being afflicted with a new
disease of which some readers
may not yet have heard the name,
but of which they will hear a great
deal in the years to come - namely,
technological unemployment. This
means unemployment due to our
discovery of means of
economizing the use of labor
outrunning the pace at which we
can find new uses for labor.
(Keynes, 1930)
John Maynard Keynes
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

3.  As women entered the labor force in pink and
white collar jobs, men were leaving farm and
manual labor
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4. 
Compensation via new machines and products.



New machines require new occupations to build and service them.
New machines make possible the production of new goods and services.
Compensation via decrease in prices.


Compensation via new investments.


Innovation increases the profit margins of the owning class, who then invest in the creation of more employment.
Compensation via decrease in wages.


Innovation reduces the cost of inputs and goods, stimulates greater demand, creating more employment.
If wages are allowed to find their equilibrium point, all unemployed workers can find new jobs at lower wages.
Compensation via increase in wages.

Keynesian policies distribute some of the increased profitability to workers as wages, with a consequent demand
stimulus on the economy and employment. (Vivarelli and Pianta, 2000)
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

5. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

6. 
Paid labor force has declined since 2000

Jobless recovery since 2008

Aging of population and technological unemployment
The percent of 18-65 year olds in paid labor

7. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

8. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

9.  All jobs are potentially automatable,
done cheaper and better than by human workers
ICT makes it more profitable to invest
in machines than to hire workers

10. Probability of Computerisation
Recreational therapists
Dentists 0.004
Personal trainers
0.007
Clergy 0.008
Chemical engineers 0.02
Editors 0.06
Fire fighters
0.17
Actors 0.37
Health technologists 0.40
Economists
0.43
Commercial pilots 0.55
Machinists
0.65
Word processors/typists
Estate agents
0.86
Technical writers
0.89
Retail sales assistants
Accountants
0.94
Telemarketers
0.99
0.003
Frey, C.B. and M. Osborne. 2013. The
Future of Employment: How
Susceptible are Jobs to
Computerization? Oxford Martin
School, Programme on the Impacts of
Future Technology, University of.
Oxford.
0.81
0.92
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11.  ICT reduces number of workers in supply chains

12. 
Since the 1980s the fastest declining occupations had the highest rates of
unionization, and the fastest growing occupations had low rates

13. 
Redistribution of wealth to the top 10%

14.  Professional core with growing
hierarchical management
 Complex product resistant to
measurement, “efficiency” and
automation
 Learning outcomes and
standardized tests and curricula
 Health outcomes and standardized
testing, treatment and care plans

15. 
Even diagnosing, prescribing and surgery can be automated
Robot
Telepresence
nurses aides doctors
Robotic surgery
Robot home care

16. 
Expert diagnostic and treatment systems used by nurses and
PAs do better than doctors for most conditions

17.  Home and medical telemonitoring of heart,
blood pressure, blood sugar, urinalysis,
prescription compliance, etc.

18. 
Online and hybrid models growing

The cost bubble in higher education is about to burst
K-12 Courseware
• University of Phoenix is largest in US
• MOOCs at Stanford, Harvard, MIT

19. 
Half of all employment is involved in production, transport
or sales of things

Diffusion of desktop manufacturing could be very rapid

20.  Computer
power
doubles
every two
years

21.  Jobs requiring human empathy and insight are
probably going to be the last to automate
 But still..
Robot
prostitutes
AI Counseling
Smartphone
confession

22. 
So far, education has determined who is most vulnerable

But un- and underemployment of college grads is rising

24.  At least those with education and affluence are
 Life expectancy for poor females is declining

25. 
Older
workers
staying
in labor
force
longer

27. 
Crashing
fertility rates

Reform of
pension and
social
security
systems

But where
will seniors
find jobs if
retirement
age raised?

28. 
The policy debate in US has not caught up

Austerity is macroeconomic dead-end

29. 
IMF 2012 on “longevity risk”: If average life spans by
2050 were to increase 3 years more than now expected
aging-related costs would increase by 50 percent

Longevity Dividend
if therapies slow aging,
reduce disease and
disability

But we still need to
address insolvency of
pensions and inequity
of dependency ratio

30.  Protecting Employment
 Re-distributing Employment
 Creating Employment
 Enhancing Human Workers
 Techno-Utopian Proposals
 Basic Income Guarantee
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31. 
Machine bans will
be proposed

Agricultural
subsidies &
protectionism

NJ’s ban on selfserve gasoline

High costs

Lower quality and
convenience

Reduced
competitiveness

32.  Ming Dynasty Seapower
 Tokugawa Isolation
 Higher costs
 Lower quality
1853 - Comm. Perry enters Japan
 Reduced international
competitiveness
 Geopolitical vulnerability
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33. 
In egalitarian countries technological change has led to prosperity

34. 
Re-distributing employment with jobsharing
 Administrative costs

Longer educations with subsidization

More vacations, or a shorter work week
 Either higher costs or reduced productivity

Lower mandatory retirement ages
 Loss of skilled workers
 Higher old-age dependency ratio
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35. 
Most public sector jobs are
also automatable

Make-work jobs that are
easily automated are
politically unpopular

If income taxes decline,
expanding public
employment may be
impossible

Current recession has seen
shrinking govt payrolls

36.  US and European
militaries have been
shrinking
 U.S. Army projects
that military robotics
will displace a
quarter of combat
soldiers by 2030

37.  Could we every catch
up?
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

38.  Post-scarcity super-
abundance
 Free molecular
manufacturing
 Universal stock ownership
in post-Singularity stock
market
 Charity from the super-rich
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39. 
Imagining the liberation from toil since Condorcet
Hans Moravec 1995: “When industry is totally
automated and hyper-efficient, it will create so much
wealth that retirement can begin at birth. We'll levy a
tax on corporations and distribute the money to
everyone as lifetime social-security payments."

40. 
Tom Paine: Annual payments
should be made "to every person,
rich or poor…in lieu of the natural
inheritance, which, as a right,
belongs to every man…”

Expanding social wage

Universal basic income guarantee

Economies need consumers even
more than workers
Tom Paine

41. 
Increase progressivity of the
income tax

But with shrinking
employment and dependency
ratio…

Carbon taxes

Consumption taxes

Public ownership of resources
(Alaskan citizen’s dividend)

42. 
Institute for Ethics
and Emerging Technologies
ieet.org

These slides:
http://ieet.org/archive
 Me: director@ieet.org