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Bersin by Deloitte
2017 Predictions
Everything is Digital
Josh Bersin
Founder, Bersin by Deloitte
Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
February, 2017
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Demographic and
political upheaval:
Millennials make up
more than half the workforce.
Boomers working into their
70s and 80s, and a new wave
of nationalism.
Digital technology
infiltrates our lives:
Technology is disrupting
business models and radically
changing the workplace and how
work is done.
Need to increase speed
and employee experience:
Engagement is flat, people are
distracted, hierarchical
structures are going away, yet
speed is increasing.
Career and social contract
with employees changed:
Employees now demand rapid
career growth, compelling and
flexible workplace, purpose, and
increased earnings.e
of purpose at work.
Forces Disrupting Organizations Today
MIT Deloitte Research, 6/2015 “Aligning the Organization for its Digital Future”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3
Digital Disruption
A New Industrial Revolution
90% of organizations surveyed by MIT and
Deloitte anticipate their industries will be
totally disrupted by digital trends.
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.
Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4
Siri Cortana Watson Alexa Viv
The Future of Work
Robotics, AI, Sensors are Here
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 5
Robots
Average cost below $25,000.
China purchasing 150,000 in 2016 to
deal with shrinking workforce
In 1900 41% of US jobs
were in agriculture. It’s
around 2% today.
There is no fundamental
economic law that
guarantees every adult
will be able to earn a
living solely
on the basis of sound
mind and good
character.
- Daniel Akst, “What we can learn from anxiety
about automation”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6
Impact of Robotics and AI on Work
Jobs Shift to Skills Which Are Essentially Human
Source: Talent for survival
Essential skills for humans
working in the machine
age, Deloitte UK 2016
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7
The overwhelmed employee
The “average” US worker now
spends 25% of their day reading
or answering emails
Fewer than 16% of companies have
a program to “simplify work” or help
employees deal with stress.
More than 80% of all companies
rate their business “highly complex”
or “complex” for employees.
The average mobile phone user
checks their device 150 times a
day.
The “average” US worker works
47 hours and 49% work 50 hours
or more per week, with 20% at
60+ hours per week
40% of the US population believes
it is impossible to succeed at work
and have a balanced family life.
Sources: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2014 and 2015
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 8
• Since 2000, American workers have lost an
entire week of vacation, dropping average
vacation days from 20.3 to 16.2
• Americans left 658 million unused vacation
days and lost 220 million of them in 2015
• 39% of Americans “want to be seen as a work
martyr” yet 86% say it’s bad for their family life.
We Are Working More Hours: The Vacation Crisis
48% of
Millennials
want to be
seen as a
“work martyr”
Millennials
50% more
likely to forfeit
vacation days
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9
Productivity is suffering—is technology helping?
US productivity last ten years
1 billion
smartphones
i-Phone
launched
100 million
Twitter users
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10
Millennials concerned:
A Threatening and Unfair World
• 64% expect economic and political conditions to get
worse in the coming two years
• In mature markets, 64% of millennials believe they will
be less well off financially than their parents
(and 69% say they will be less happy)
• In emerging markets 71%expect to be better off than
their parents and 62% happier.
• 77% of Millennials actively take part in volunteerism
and charity work to help improve their community
• 88% of Millennials believe business can be a major
force for positive social change
Millennials Speak Up: Citizenship On The Rise
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
4. New generation of performance management tools
5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical
6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR
7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud
8. Leadership market reinvents itself again
9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream
10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role
Talent and HR Predictions for 2017
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 12
Percent rating trend important
Importance of Human Capital trends to business
Organizational design
Leadership
Culture
Engagement
92%
89%
86%
85%
Learning
Design thinking
Skills of HR organization
People analytics
Digital HR
Workforce management
77%
74%
71%
84%
79%
78%
% very
important
2016
56%
57%
54%
48%
44%
39%
36%
36%
32%
28%
% very
important
2015
…
50%
50%
39%
…
39%
29%
…
…
The gap
between need
and capability
has increased
400% since
2014
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 13
Shared values and culture
Transparent goals and
projects
Free flow of information
and feedback
People rewarded for
their skills and abilities,
not position
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
A network of teams
B
A
DCF
A
C D E
B
G
How things were How things “are” How things work
E
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14
Tribes, Squads, Chapters at ING Bank
http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/fina
ncial-services/our-insights/ings-agile-
transformation
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15
Average
3.2
What are these
companies doing?
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
Engagement Remains a Challenge
Summer, 2016 Glassdoor Bersin by Deloitte Research
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
9/1/2008
11/1/2008
1/1/2009
3/1/2009
5/1/2009
7/1/2009
9/1/2009
11/1/2009
1/1/2010
3/1/2010
5/1/2010
7/1/2010
9/1/2010
11/1/2010
1/1/2011
3/1/2011
5/1/2011
7/1/2011
9/1/2011
11/1/2011
1/1/2012
3/1/2012
5/1/2012
7/1/2012
9/1/2012
11/1/2012
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
11/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
5/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
11/1/2015
1/1/2016
US Workplace Culture
Growth in Google Trends, since 2008 Recession
Workplace Culture Keeps Getting Hotter!
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 17
3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
What We’ve Learned about Feedback
Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19829208
Lack of feedback creates anxiety,
worry, and poor performance
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 18
The Feedback System
How Does Feedback Work Today?
Engagement
Survey
Senior Management Team
Employees
Line Managers | HR
Performance
Review
Filtering and Cleaning
Time
Per
Year
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 19
Feedback is the Killer App
The World of Feedback Apps is Here`
Traditional
Engagement Surveys
Work Environments
Quick Feedback
Team Management Apps
Performance Management
Social Recognition
Well Being
Culture
Pulse Surveys
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 20
Feedback = Performance at Deloitte
1. I am really enthusiastic about the mission of the firm
2. At work, I clearly know what is expected of me
3. In my team, I am surrounded by people who share my values
4. At work, I have the chance to use my strengths every day
5. My teammates have my back
6. I know I will be recognized for excellent work
7. I have great confidence in the firm’s future
8. In my work, I am always challenged to grow
Bottom Quartile
Middle Quartile
Top Quartile
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4.4
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
Pulse Survey items
Questions that Predict High Performance at Deloitte
Source: Deloitte pilots FYs14-15
Questions © Marcus Buckingham Company.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 21
The Listening Organization
Enterprise Feedback Architecture
Integrated
Reporting & Analytics
Sentiment Analysis
Network Analysis
Social Media
Monitoring
Job Boards
& Ads
Employment
Brand
Customer
Satisfaction
Anonymous
Feedback Tools
Pulse Surveys
Annual
Survey
Performance
Check-ins
Exit
Interviews
Performance
Appraisals
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 22
People Analytics: Taking Off
Progress is Rapidly Accelerating
2015 2016 2017 % Change
Performing multi-year workforce planning 38% 48% 49% + 23%
Correlating people data to business performance 24% 39% 46% + 56%
Correlating people data to business performance (%
excellent)
5% 11% 9% + 36%
Using people data to predict business performance 28% 36% 46% + 50%
Using people data to predict performance (% excellent) 4% 9% 9% + 56%
Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends, 2016 and 2015
Plan
Correlate
Predict
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23
2017: Where People Analytics Is Going
Interesting Experiments,
Models, and Studies
Practical, Useful
Dashboard and Tools
Projects Based on
Problems and Strategies
Embedded Applications That
Drive and Inform Work
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 24
4. A New Generation of Performance Management Tools
Reinvention of Performance Management Arrives
Then:
The Networked Hierarchy
Now:
The Digital Organization
• Cascade and align corporate goals
• Drive and measure top-down execution
• Evaluate high performers
• Force out low performers
• Allocate pay for performance
• Assess competency gaps
• Create development plans
• Identify HIPOs, leadership candidates
• Create real-time team-centric goals
• Drive front-line, iterative execution
• Help everyone perform at high level
• Develop and coach low performers
• Differentiate pay for performance
• Provide continuous learning
• Give positive developmental feedback
• Engage teams and assess next role
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 25
What’s Really New? Almost Everything!
The New
World of
Performance
Management
Check-ins
Transparent
Goals
Peer
Feedback
Feedback
to Manager
Engagement
Survey
Individual
Assessment
Team
Assessment
Continuous
Micro-
Learning
Regular
Evaluation
Integrated
into Workflow
Mobile
App
Annual Process Continuous
Manager-Centric Team-Centric
Hierarchical Multi-Directional
Competitive Developmental
Subjective Data-Driven
Secret Transparent
Single Rating Richer Rating
Vendor
A
Vendor
C
Vendor
D
Vendor
E
Vendor
G
Vendor
FVendor
B
Fundamental Changes Are Enormous
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 26
27 companies that redesigned their process, found
overwhelmingly positive outcomes:
• 100% said conversation quality improved
• 83% said conversation frequency increased
• 90% said employee engagement increased
• 91% say data for evaluation is better
• 96% say tools are easier and simpler
• 77% expect continuous feedback
• 45% are using check-ins to assess managers
• 50% say training process is easier and shorter
• 67% doing feedback quarterly
• 80% expect employees to drive check-ins
And Yes, The New Models For PM Do Work
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27
EmployeeVitality
Business Performance
Cost
Reduction
Labor
Productivity
Retention Productivity Collaboration Team
Performance
Leadership
Health
Monitoring
Employee
Assistance
Medical
Benefits
Fitness
Challenges
Nutrition
Exercise
Sleep
Stress
Sustainable Performance
Recognition
Skills and
Training
Work
Environment
Rewards
Leadership
Management
Clear Goals
Growth
Opportunities
Drive
Wellbeing
Self
Discovery
Career
Purpose
Mindfulness
Abundance
Mentality
Positive Thinking
Culture Fit
Family
5. Wellness matures and becomes central
From Wellness to WellBeing to Performance
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 28
Changing Employee Habits
Photo: https://squashskills.com/blog/-/does-jogging-have-any-benefits-for-squash-players-159/
Personal plan
Culture of fitness
Challenges, Leaderboard
Apps, Wearables
Groups
Rewards
Storytelling
Management support
Slack time
Facilities
Leadership
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 29
6. Focus on the Employee Experience
Careers have changed and so have people
“Our candidates
today are not looking
for a career…
They’re looking for
an Experience.”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 30
Culture, value, leadership, and career (The Big Four)
What matters to employees
0.00
0.12
0.13
0.22
0.28
0.30
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
Year founded (age)
Compensation & benefits
Work life balance
Career opportunities
Senior leadership
Culture and values
Correlation of employment factors to Glassdoor recommendations as place to work
Culture and leadership are 3X more important
than salary in your employment brand.
Career development and learning are almost
2X more important than comp, benefits,
and work environment.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 31
Factors that link culture and engagement
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 32
Bersin by Deloitte Engagement Model
The Simply Irresistible Organization®
Meaningful
Work
Hands-On
Management
Positive Work
Environment
Growth
Opportunity
Trust in
Leadership
Autonomy Clear transparent goals Flexible, humane work
environment
Facilitated talent mobility Mission and purpose
Selection to Fit Coaching & feedback Recognition rich culture Career growth in many
paths
Investment in people, trust
Small Teams Leadership Development Open flexible workspace Self and formal
development
Transparency and
communication
Time for Slack Modern Performance
Management
Inclusive, diverse culture High impact learning
culture
Inspiration
Collaboration and Connection
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 33
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 34
7. Emergence of Digital HR, Learning, Recruiting
HR Technology Now A Hot Marketplace
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 35
Moving beyond the cloud
Rip and Replace Pace is Slowing
Core HR Technology spending is slowing
(41% say it’s flat)
Clients not fully satisfied: only 21% of
customers say talent systems “always meet
their needs.”
Two biggest growth areas are Learning and
Analytics (37% yty)
Career, succession, onboarding, analytics
hottest functional needs
User satisfaction is 2/3 lower than vendor
satisfaction
How Will You Upgrade Your HR Technology?
2015 Cedar Crestone survey and 2015 Bersin by Deloitte HR Systems Research
Risk Speed
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 36
Feedback and
Engagement
Reinventing
Performance
Video Based
Learning & Career
Team
Management
Well-Being
Work—Team
Management
2017: A New Set of Disruptive ApplicationsMARKETGROWTH—ADOPTION
2 0 1 6
Pulse
Survey
Text
Analytics
Mobile
Feedback
2 0 2 0
Culture
Assessment
Coaching
Tools
Checkins
with Feedback
Agile, open
goal management
Org Network
Analysis
Team Assessment
Tools
Social Recognition
Integrated
Smart Tools
For Leader
Coaching
P R O G R E S S I O N O V E R T I M E
Video Learning
Content
Curation
Intelligent
Learning
Career
Planning
Gamification
Accreditation
Well Being
Fitness Tracking
Competitions
Social Sharing
Points
Gamification
Fitness Merges
w/Engagement
Virtual Work
Management
Document
Management
Goal Sharing
Goal Tracking
Communications
Messaging
Curated
Micro-Learning
Engagement tools
directed to leaders
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 37
Convergence of HR Systems Ahead
Diet
Wellness
Fitness
Challenges
Goal Management
Feedback
Pulse
Survey
Surveys
Engagement Tools
Mobile
Feedback
Customer
Feedback
Check Ins
Personality
Assessment
Performance
Review
Fitness
Monitoring
Health
Behavior Change
Social Recognition
Customer based
Recognition
Community
Circles
Affinity
Groups
Anniversaries
Work Events
Engagement
Analytics
Travel
Time Management
Video Learning
Video Sharing
Gamified
Onboarding
Career
Planning
Training and
Certification
Engagement
Feedback
Performance
Recognition
Rewards
Learning
Well Being &
Work Management
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 38
From Application Tracking to Recruitment Success
Reinvention of the Talent Acquisition Market
Applicant
Tracking
Candidate
Marketing
Sourcing
Video
Interview
Analytics
Next Gen
Talent
Acquisition
Onboarding
Manager
Tools
?
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 39
AI Applied to Recruitment and Selection
Video Analytics Becomes Real
https://www.fastcompany.com/3064863/election-2016/watch-this-
ai-platform-assess-trumps-and-clintons-emotional-intelligence
• Video interviewing now nearly
mainstream, as many as 40% of
interviews are done digitally
• AI software (HireVue) can now detect
race, emotion, gender, and tendency to
exaggerate or lie through video
• While use of this data is not legally
defensible yet, companies are actively
using this data to select candidates
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 40
AI, natural language, chat integration, and “experience platforms”
And There’s More to Come…
Workflow Interaction
Bots
Content
Videos
Podcasts
Notifications
Campaigns
Real-Time
Analytics
Case
Management
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 41
Integrating HR into Work Itself…
And There’s More to Come…
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 42
Foundational Leadership
Content and Curricula, Programs by Levels, Offerings as Benefits
Level 1
Integrated Leadership
Competencies, programs, audience-specific, talent management
Level 2
Scalable Leadership
Capability models, culture, executive commitment, rewards
Level 3
Systemic Leadership
Culture, structure, exposure, risk-taking, HR-business integration
Level 4
BersinbyDeloitte
17%
58%
18%
7%
8. Leadership market reinvents itself
Leadership development is a “broken market”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 43
8%
15%
9%
6%
13%
20%
15%
7%
Global skills and experiences in leadership
program
Leadership programs for all levels (new, mid-
level, senior)
Experiential leadership programs
Targeted Millennial leadership programs
2016 2015
Maturity growth in global and experiential programs,
but not enough focus on Millennials
(% companies who are “excellent” at these areas)
Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends 2016, n=7,000
70%
of Millennials
tell us they are
receiving no
leadership
development
at all.
Focus areas
Weakest area seems to be Millennial programs
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44
Too Many “Good Ideas” Out There to Pick From
Unfortunately, while much ink has been spilled on the topic of
individual leadership, very little of it can be scientifically supported.
In an influential book published in 1991, the University of San Diego’s
Joseph Rost pointed out that writers had defined leadership in more
than 200 ways since 1900, often with nothing but conjecture or
personal experience to back up their claims.
https://hbr.org/2016/12/succession-planning-what-the-research-says
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45
The Digital Organization®
Digital DNA
Like human DNA, Digital DNA carries the 23
underlying instructions, development,
functioning, and replication for being “digital’.
These are expressed as digital traits and
characteristics. They are present in all areas
of the organization: business models,
operating models, customer interaction,
organization structure, talent, technology,
cyber-security, culture, etc.
There are four levels of Digital Maturity:
Exploring, Doing, Becoming, and Being.
© Deloitte Consulting LLP
Real Time & On-Demand
Fluidity
Constant Disruption
Changing Mix of Traditional & Non-traditional Stakeholders
Continuously Innovating
Modulating Risk & Security Boundaries
Morphing Team Structures
Intentionally Collaborative
Multi-Modal Operations
Continuous Ecosystem Disruption
Iterative
Changing Nature and Typology of Work
Constantly Changing Decision Criteria
Ongoing Shifts in Decision Rights and Power
Geography Agnostic
Uneven Velocity between Digital & Legacy
Dynamic Skill Requirements
Increased Customer Involvement
Productive Mobility (non-traditional workspace options)
Flattening and Changing Hierarchy
Agility
Fail Early, Fail Fast, Learn Faster
Democratizing Information
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 46
CEO’s Still Don’t Understand This Issue
67% of CEOs responding to a recent Korn Ferry
study believe that technology will create more
value than human capital.
44% of leaders in large global businesses believe
that the prevalence of robotics, automation, and
ATI will make people “largely irrelevant” in the
future of work.
And, to make it worse, “46% say they do not
know how to measure workforce performance.”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 47
Essential Talent Activities
Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices
Level 1
Critical Talent Growth
Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance
Level 2
Managed Talent Relationships
Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated
into talent strategy
Level 3
Inclusive Talent System
Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture
Level 4
BersinbyDeloitte
10%
19%
59%
12%
The New Bersin by Deloitte Talent Management Maturity Model
Source: Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, 2015.
9. Inclusion, bias, diversity go mainstream
Inclusive Talent Practices Drive Financial Results
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 48
Effective Inclusion Is A Leadership Issue
Six Signature Traits of Inclusive Leadership
https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-
en/topics/talent/six-signature-traits-of-
inclusive-leadership.html
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 49
• People are inherently biased
̶ Age, gender, experience, proximity, race
̶ Training and workshops are the new rage
̶ Training is good but not enough
• Bias can be removed from “processes” not “people”
̶ Recruitment and selection
̶ Promotion and leadership
̶ Compensation and rewards
̶ Leaders held accountable
• New data driven solutions drive out bias fastest
• We have proof that diverse teams perform better, are more
innovative, and more engaged
Unconscious Bias Takes Center Stage
https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-diverse-teams-are-smarter
https://hbr.org/2016/09/diverse-teams-feel-less-comfortable-and-thats-why-they-perform-better
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 50
Our Data Proves Value of Inclusive Talent Practices
As compared with organizations of similar size
and less mature talent management practices,
mature large organizations had 2.3 times higher
cashflow per employee over a three-year
period. When contrasted against less mature
small organizations, mature small organizations
had 13 times higher mean cashflow from
operations, five times higher mean cashflow as a
percentage of revenue, and five times higher
mean annual change in share price (all based on
a three-year average).
Source: 2015 High-Impact Talent Management, Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 51
“Over 300 years of economic history,
the principal and most enduring
mechanism for distribution of wealth
and reduction in inequality is the
diffusion of skills and knowledge.”
10. L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
The learning curve is the earning curve
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 52
Consumerization of education has arrived
MOOCs Forever Changed Education
400+ universities. 2,400+ courses.
35+ million students.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 53
The training industry tries to respond
L&D is Not Keeping Up
• Average employee spends 6.5 hours a week learning
or trying to learn
• 2/3 of L&D leaders believe learners should use
learning every week or more.
• CLOs say L&D is “wildly out of sync” with how
people learn….
• Employees rate L&D -31% net promoter score
(49% would not recommend and only 18% would
recommend their training dept.)
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 54
77%
53%
32%
4%
6%
13%
10%
15%
26%
4%
14%
15%
5%
10%
13%
2009
2012
2015
ILT
Virtual ILT
Online self-study
On the Job
Collaboration
ILT shrinking in volume,
growing in importance
Online and collaborative
learning Is finally working
OTJ and apprenticeship
is growing rapidly
Today only 16% of L&D spending is allocated to instructor
delivery, vs. 21% in 2011 and 33% in 2006
Source: Bersin Corporate Learning Factbook® 2015
Shifting resources away from ILT, toward online and on the job
Huge shift in content strategy
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 55
End of the Learning Management System?
A New Market Emerges: Learning Experience Platform
The “Learning Management System” (LMS)
Mobile Pathways Videos Articles ChannelsPeopleCourses
Search | Curation | Recommendations | Machine Learning
The “Learning System”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 56
One Final Point:
Jobs are not going away
Empathy, creativity, and human skills are more
important than ever…
But we must design our organizations and
jobs to empower people and the customer
experience.
56
The Future of Work is Here, And It’s Our Job To Deal With It
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of-
work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 57
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
4. New generation of performance management tools
5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical
6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR
7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud
8. Leadership market reinvents itself again
9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream
10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role
Talent and HR Predictions for 2017

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Everything Is Digital: Ten HR and Talent Predictions for 2020

  • 1. Bersin by Deloitte 2017 Predictions Everything is Digital Josh Bersin Founder, Bersin by Deloitte Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP February, 2017
  • 2. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2 Demographic and political upheaval: Millennials make up more than half the workforce. Boomers working into their 70s and 80s, and a new wave of nationalism. Digital technology infiltrates our lives: Technology is disrupting business models and radically changing the workplace and how work is done. Need to increase speed and employee experience: Engagement is flat, people are distracted, hierarchical structures are going away, yet speed is increasing. Career and social contract with employees changed: Employees now demand rapid career growth, compelling and flexible workplace, purpose, and increased earnings.e of purpose at work. Forces Disrupting Organizations Today MIT Deloitte Research, 6/2015 “Aligning the Organization for its Digital Future”
  • 3. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3 Digital Disruption A New Industrial Revolution 90% of organizations surveyed by MIT and Deloitte anticipate their industries will be totally disrupted by digital trends. As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
  • 4. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4 Siri Cortana Watson Alexa Viv The Future of Work Robotics, AI, Sensors are Here
  • 5. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 5 Robots Average cost below $25,000. China purchasing 150,000 in 2016 to deal with shrinking workforce In 1900 41% of US jobs were in agriculture. It’s around 2% today. There is no fundamental economic law that guarantees every adult will be able to earn a living solely on the basis of sound mind and good character. - Daniel Akst, “What we can learn from anxiety about automation”
  • 6. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6 Impact of Robotics and AI on Work Jobs Shift to Skills Which Are Essentially Human Source: Talent for survival Essential skills for humans working in the machine age, Deloitte UK 2016
  • 7. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7 The overwhelmed employee The “average” US worker now spends 25% of their day reading or answering emails Fewer than 16% of companies have a program to “simplify work” or help employees deal with stress. More than 80% of all companies rate their business “highly complex” or “complex” for employees. The average mobile phone user checks their device 150 times a day. The “average” US worker works 47 hours and 49% work 50 hours or more per week, with 20% at 60+ hours per week 40% of the US population believes it is impossible to succeed at work and have a balanced family life. Sources: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2014 and 2015
  • 8. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 8 • Since 2000, American workers have lost an entire week of vacation, dropping average vacation days from 20.3 to 16.2 • Americans left 658 million unused vacation days and lost 220 million of them in 2015 • 39% of Americans “want to be seen as a work martyr” yet 86% say it’s bad for their family life. We Are Working More Hours: The Vacation Crisis 48% of Millennials want to be seen as a “work martyr” Millennials 50% more likely to forfeit vacation days
  • 9. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9 Productivity is suffering—is technology helping? US productivity last ten years 1 billion smartphones i-Phone launched 100 million Twitter users
  • 10. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10 Millennials concerned: A Threatening and Unfair World • 64% expect economic and political conditions to get worse in the coming two years • In mature markets, 64% of millennials believe they will be less well off financially than their parents (and 69% say they will be less happy) • In emerging markets 71%expect to be better off than their parents and 62% happier. • 77% of Millennials actively take part in volunteerism and charity work to help improve their community • 88% of Millennials believe business can be a major force for positive social change Millennials Speak Up: Citizenship On The Rise
  • 11. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11 1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere 2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities 3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity 4. New generation of performance management tools 5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical 6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR 7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud 8. Leadership market reinvents itself again 9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream 10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself 11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role Talent and HR Predictions for 2017
  • 12. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 12 Percent rating trend important Importance of Human Capital trends to business Organizational design Leadership Culture Engagement 92% 89% 86% 85% Learning Design thinking Skills of HR organization People analytics Digital HR Workforce management 77% 74% 71% 84% 79% 78% % very important 2016 56% 57% 54% 48% 44% 39% 36% 36% 32% 28% % very important 2015 … 50% 50% 39% … 39% 29% … … The gap between need and capability has increased 400% since 2014
  • 13. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 13 Shared values and culture Transparent goals and projects Free flow of information and feedback People rewarded for their skills and abilities, not position 1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere A network of teams B A DCF A C D E B G How things were How things “are” How things work E
  • 14. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14 Tribes, Squads, Chapters at ING Bank http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/fina ncial-services/our-insights/ings-agile- transformation
  • 15. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15 Average 3.2 What are these companies doing? 2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities Engagement Remains a Challenge Summer, 2016 Glassdoor Bersin by Deloitte Research
  • 16. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 9/1/2008 11/1/2008 1/1/2009 3/1/2009 5/1/2009 7/1/2009 9/1/2009 11/1/2009 1/1/2010 3/1/2010 5/1/2010 7/1/2010 9/1/2010 11/1/2010 1/1/2011 3/1/2011 5/1/2011 7/1/2011 9/1/2011 11/1/2011 1/1/2012 3/1/2012 5/1/2012 7/1/2012 9/1/2012 11/1/2012 1/1/2013 3/1/2013 5/1/2013 7/1/2013 9/1/2013 11/1/2013 1/1/2014 3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/2014 11/1/2014 1/1/2015 3/1/2015 5/1/2015 7/1/2015 9/1/2015 11/1/2015 1/1/2016 US Workplace Culture Growth in Google Trends, since 2008 Recession Workplace Culture Keeps Getting Hotter!
  • 17. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 17 3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity What We’ve Learned about Feedback Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19829208 Lack of feedback creates anxiety, worry, and poor performance
  • 18. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 18 The Feedback System How Does Feedback Work Today? Engagement Survey Senior Management Team Employees Line Managers | HR Performance Review Filtering and Cleaning Time Per Year
  • 19. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 19 Feedback is the Killer App The World of Feedback Apps is Here` Traditional Engagement Surveys Work Environments Quick Feedback Team Management Apps Performance Management Social Recognition Well Being Culture Pulse Surveys
  • 20. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 20 Feedback = Performance at Deloitte 1. I am really enthusiastic about the mission of the firm 2. At work, I clearly know what is expected of me 3. In my team, I am surrounded by people who share my values 4. At work, I have the chance to use my strengths every day 5. My teammates have my back 6. I know I will be recognized for excellent work 7. I have great confidence in the firm’s future 8. In my work, I am always challenged to grow Bottom Quartile Middle Quartile Top Quartile 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4.4 3.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 Pulse Survey items Questions that Predict High Performance at Deloitte Source: Deloitte pilots FYs14-15 Questions © Marcus Buckingham Company.
  • 21. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 21 The Listening Organization Enterprise Feedback Architecture Integrated Reporting & Analytics Sentiment Analysis Network Analysis Social Media Monitoring Job Boards & Ads Employment Brand Customer Satisfaction Anonymous Feedback Tools Pulse Surveys Annual Survey Performance Check-ins Exit Interviews Performance Appraisals
  • 22. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 22 People Analytics: Taking Off Progress is Rapidly Accelerating 2015 2016 2017 % Change Performing multi-year workforce planning 38% 48% 49% + 23% Correlating people data to business performance 24% 39% 46% + 56% Correlating people data to business performance (% excellent) 5% 11% 9% + 36% Using people data to predict business performance 28% 36% 46% + 50% Using people data to predict performance (% excellent) 4% 9% 9% + 56% Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends, 2016 and 2015 Plan Correlate Predict
  • 23. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23 2017: Where People Analytics Is Going Interesting Experiments, Models, and Studies Practical, Useful Dashboard and Tools Projects Based on Problems and Strategies Embedded Applications That Drive and Inform Work
  • 24. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 24 4. A New Generation of Performance Management Tools Reinvention of Performance Management Arrives Then: The Networked Hierarchy Now: The Digital Organization • Cascade and align corporate goals • Drive and measure top-down execution • Evaluate high performers • Force out low performers • Allocate pay for performance • Assess competency gaps • Create development plans • Identify HIPOs, leadership candidates • Create real-time team-centric goals • Drive front-line, iterative execution • Help everyone perform at high level • Develop and coach low performers • Differentiate pay for performance • Provide continuous learning • Give positive developmental feedback • Engage teams and assess next role
  • 25. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 25 What’s Really New? Almost Everything! The New World of Performance Management Check-ins Transparent Goals Peer Feedback Feedback to Manager Engagement Survey Individual Assessment Team Assessment Continuous Micro- Learning Regular Evaluation Integrated into Workflow Mobile App Annual Process Continuous Manager-Centric Team-Centric Hierarchical Multi-Directional Competitive Developmental Subjective Data-Driven Secret Transparent Single Rating Richer Rating Vendor A Vendor C Vendor D Vendor E Vendor G Vendor FVendor B Fundamental Changes Are Enormous
  • 26. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 26 27 companies that redesigned their process, found overwhelmingly positive outcomes: • 100% said conversation quality improved • 83% said conversation frequency increased • 90% said employee engagement increased • 91% say data for evaluation is better • 96% say tools are easier and simpler • 77% expect continuous feedback • 45% are using check-ins to assess managers • 50% say training process is easier and shorter • 67% doing feedback quarterly • 80% expect employees to drive check-ins And Yes, The New Models For PM Do Work
  • 27. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27 EmployeeVitality Business Performance Cost Reduction Labor Productivity Retention Productivity Collaboration Team Performance Leadership Health Monitoring Employee Assistance Medical Benefits Fitness Challenges Nutrition Exercise Sleep Stress Sustainable Performance Recognition Skills and Training Work Environment Rewards Leadership Management Clear Goals Growth Opportunities Drive Wellbeing Self Discovery Career Purpose Mindfulness Abundance Mentality Positive Thinking Culture Fit Family 5. Wellness matures and becomes central From Wellness to WellBeing to Performance
  • 28. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 28 Changing Employee Habits Photo: https://squashskills.com/blog/-/does-jogging-have-any-benefits-for-squash-players-159/ Personal plan Culture of fitness Challenges, Leaderboard Apps, Wearables Groups Rewards Storytelling Management support Slack time Facilities Leadership
  • 29. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 29 6. Focus on the Employee Experience Careers have changed and so have people “Our candidates today are not looking for a career… They’re looking for an Experience.”
  • 30. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 30 Culture, value, leadership, and career (The Big Four) What matters to employees 0.00 0.12 0.13 0.22 0.28 0.30 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Year founded (age) Compensation & benefits Work life balance Career opportunities Senior leadership Culture and values Correlation of employment factors to Glassdoor recommendations as place to work Culture and leadership are 3X more important than salary in your employment brand. Career development and learning are almost 2X more important than comp, benefits, and work environment.
  • 31. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 31 Factors that link culture and engagement
  • 32. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 32 Bersin by Deloitte Engagement Model The Simply Irresistible Organization® Meaningful Work Hands-On Management Positive Work Environment Growth Opportunity Trust in Leadership Autonomy Clear transparent goals Flexible, humane work environment Facilitated talent mobility Mission and purpose Selection to Fit Coaching & feedback Recognition rich culture Career growth in many paths Investment in people, trust Small Teams Leadership Development Open flexible workspace Self and formal development Transparency and communication Time for Slack Modern Performance Management Inclusive, diverse culture High impact learning culture Inspiration Collaboration and Connection
  • 33. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 33
  • 34. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 34 7. Emergence of Digital HR, Learning, Recruiting HR Technology Now A Hot Marketplace
  • 35. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 35 Moving beyond the cloud Rip and Replace Pace is Slowing Core HR Technology spending is slowing (41% say it’s flat) Clients not fully satisfied: only 21% of customers say talent systems “always meet their needs.” Two biggest growth areas are Learning and Analytics (37% yty) Career, succession, onboarding, analytics hottest functional needs User satisfaction is 2/3 lower than vendor satisfaction How Will You Upgrade Your HR Technology? 2015 Cedar Crestone survey and 2015 Bersin by Deloitte HR Systems Research Risk Speed
  • 36. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 36 Feedback and Engagement Reinventing Performance Video Based Learning & Career Team Management Well-Being Work—Team Management 2017: A New Set of Disruptive ApplicationsMARKETGROWTH—ADOPTION 2 0 1 6 Pulse Survey Text Analytics Mobile Feedback 2 0 2 0 Culture Assessment Coaching Tools Checkins with Feedback Agile, open goal management Org Network Analysis Team Assessment Tools Social Recognition Integrated Smart Tools For Leader Coaching P R O G R E S S I O N O V E R T I M E Video Learning Content Curation Intelligent Learning Career Planning Gamification Accreditation Well Being Fitness Tracking Competitions Social Sharing Points Gamification Fitness Merges w/Engagement Virtual Work Management Document Management Goal Sharing Goal Tracking Communications Messaging Curated Micro-Learning Engagement tools directed to leaders
  • 37. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 37 Convergence of HR Systems Ahead Diet Wellness Fitness Challenges Goal Management Feedback Pulse Survey Surveys Engagement Tools Mobile Feedback Customer Feedback Check Ins Personality Assessment Performance Review Fitness Monitoring Health Behavior Change Social Recognition Customer based Recognition Community Circles Affinity Groups Anniversaries Work Events Engagement Analytics Travel Time Management Video Learning Video Sharing Gamified Onboarding Career Planning Training and Certification Engagement Feedback Performance Recognition Rewards Learning Well Being & Work Management
  • 38. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 38 From Application Tracking to Recruitment Success Reinvention of the Talent Acquisition Market Applicant Tracking Candidate Marketing Sourcing Video Interview Analytics Next Gen Talent Acquisition Onboarding Manager Tools ?
  • 39. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 39 AI Applied to Recruitment and Selection Video Analytics Becomes Real https://www.fastcompany.com/3064863/election-2016/watch-this- ai-platform-assess-trumps-and-clintons-emotional-intelligence • Video interviewing now nearly mainstream, as many as 40% of interviews are done digitally • AI software (HireVue) can now detect race, emotion, gender, and tendency to exaggerate or lie through video • While use of this data is not legally defensible yet, companies are actively using this data to select candidates
  • 40. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 40 AI, natural language, chat integration, and “experience platforms” And There’s More to Come… Workflow Interaction Bots Content Videos Podcasts Notifications Campaigns Real-Time Analytics Case Management
  • 41. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 41 Integrating HR into Work Itself… And There’s More to Come…
  • 42. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 42 Foundational Leadership Content and Curricula, Programs by Levels, Offerings as Benefits Level 1 Integrated Leadership Competencies, programs, audience-specific, talent management Level 2 Scalable Leadership Capability models, culture, executive commitment, rewards Level 3 Systemic Leadership Culture, structure, exposure, risk-taking, HR-business integration Level 4 BersinbyDeloitte 17% 58% 18% 7% 8. Leadership market reinvents itself Leadership development is a “broken market”
  • 43. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 43 8% 15% 9% 6% 13% 20% 15% 7% Global skills and experiences in leadership program Leadership programs for all levels (new, mid- level, senior) Experiential leadership programs Targeted Millennial leadership programs 2016 2015 Maturity growth in global and experiential programs, but not enough focus on Millennials (% companies who are “excellent” at these areas) Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends 2016, n=7,000 70% of Millennials tell us they are receiving no leadership development at all. Focus areas Weakest area seems to be Millennial programs
  • 44. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44 Too Many “Good Ideas” Out There to Pick From Unfortunately, while much ink has been spilled on the topic of individual leadership, very little of it can be scientifically supported. In an influential book published in 1991, the University of San Diego’s Joseph Rost pointed out that writers had defined leadership in more than 200 ways since 1900, often with nothing but conjecture or personal experience to back up their claims. https://hbr.org/2016/12/succession-planning-what-the-research-says
  • 45. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45 The Digital Organization® Digital DNA Like human DNA, Digital DNA carries the 23 underlying instructions, development, functioning, and replication for being “digital’. These are expressed as digital traits and characteristics. They are present in all areas of the organization: business models, operating models, customer interaction, organization structure, talent, technology, cyber-security, culture, etc. There are four levels of Digital Maturity: Exploring, Doing, Becoming, and Being. © Deloitte Consulting LLP Real Time & On-Demand Fluidity Constant Disruption Changing Mix of Traditional & Non-traditional Stakeholders Continuously Innovating Modulating Risk & Security Boundaries Morphing Team Structures Intentionally Collaborative Multi-Modal Operations Continuous Ecosystem Disruption Iterative Changing Nature and Typology of Work Constantly Changing Decision Criteria Ongoing Shifts in Decision Rights and Power Geography Agnostic Uneven Velocity between Digital & Legacy Dynamic Skill Requirements Increased Customer Involvement Productive Mobility (non-traditional workspace options) Flattening and Changing Hierarchy Agility Fail Early, Fail Fast, Learn Faster Democratizing Information
  • 46. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 46 CEO’s Still Don’t Understand This Issue 67% of CEOs responding to a recent Korn Ferry study believe that technology will create more value than human capital. 44% of leaders in large global businesses believe that the prevalence of robotics, automation, and ATI will make people “largely irrelevant” in the future of work. And, to make it worse, “46% say they do not know how to measure workforce performance.”
  • 47. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 47 Essential Talent Activities Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices Level 1 Critical Talent Growth Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance Level 2 Managed Talent Relationships Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated into talent strategy Level 3 Inclusive Talent System Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture Level 4 BersinbyDeloitte 10% 19% 59% 12% The New Bersin by Deloitte Talent Management Maturity Model Source: Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, 2015. 9. Inclusion, bias, diversity go mainstream Inclusive Talent Practices Drive Financial Results
  • 48. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 48 Effective Inclusion Is A Leadership Issue Six Signature Traits of Inclusive Leadership https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us- en/topics/talent/six-signature-traits-of- inclusive-leadership.html
  • 49. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 49 • People are inherently biased ̶ Age, gender, experience, proximity, race ̶ Training and workshops are the new rage ̶ Training is good but not enough • Bias can be removed from “processes” not “people” ̶ Recruitment and selection ̶ Promotion and leadership ̶ Compensation and rewards ̶ Leaders held accountable • New data driven solutions drive out bias fastest • We have proof that diverse teams perform better, are more innovative, and more engaged Unconscious Bias Takes Center Stage https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-diverse-teams-are-smarter https://hbr.org/2016/09/diverse-teams-feel-less-comfortable-and-thats-why-they-perform-better
  • 50. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 50 Our Data Proves Value of Inclusive Talent Practices As compared with organizations of similar size and less mature talent management practices, mature large organizations had 2.3 times higher cashflow per employee over a three-year period. When contrasted against less mature small organizations, mature small organizations had 13 times higher mean cashflow from operations, five times higher mean cashflow as a percentage of revenue, and five times higher mean annual change in share price (all based on a three-year average). Source: 2015 High-Impact Talent Management, Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP
  • 51. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 51 “Over 300 years of economic history, the principal and most enduring mechanism for distribution of wealth and reduction in inequality is the diffusion of skills and knowledge.” 10. L&D will struggle to reinvent itself The learning curve is the earning curve
  • 52. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 52 Consumerization of education has arrived MOOCs Forever Changed Education 400+ universities. 2,400+ courses. 35+ million students.
  • 53. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 53 The training industry tries to respond L&D is Not Keeping Up • Average employee spends 6.5 hours a week learning or trying to learn • 2/3 of L&D leaders believe learners should use learning every week or more. • CLOs say L&D is “wildly out of sync” with how people learn…. • Employees rate L&D -31% net promoter score (49% would not recommend and only 18% would recommend their training dept.)
  • 54. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 54 77% 53% 32% 4% 6% 13% 10% 15% 26% 4% 14% 15% 5% 10% 13% 2009 2012 2015 ILT Virtual ILT Online self-study On the Job Collaboration ILT shrinking in volume, growing in importance Online and collaborative learning Is finally working OTJ and apprenticeship is growing rapidly Today only 16% of L&D spending is allocated to instructor delivery, vs. 21% in 2011 and 33% in 2006 Source: Bersin Corporate Learning Factbook® 2015 Shifting resources away from ILT, toward online and on the job Huge shift in content strategy
  • 55. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 55 End of the Learning Management System? A New Market Emerges: Learning Experience Platform The “Learning Management System” (LMS) Mobile Pathways Videos Articles ChannelsPeopleCourses Search | Curation | Recommendations | Machine Learning The “Learning System”
  • 56. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 56 One Final Point: Jobs are not going away Empathy, creativity, and human skills are more important than ever… But we must design our organizations and jobs to empower people and the customer experience. 56 The Future of Work is Here, And It’s Our Job To Deal With It Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of- work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506
  • 57. HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year aheadCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 57 1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere 2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities 3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity 4. New generation of performance management tools 5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical 6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR 7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud 8. Leadership market reinvents itself again 9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream 10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself 11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role Talent and HR Predictions for 2017

Editor's Notes

  1. The second part of the technology story is the growth and accelerating maturity of robotics, artificial intelligence, sensors, and cognitive computing. Tools like Siri, Cortana, Watson, and Alexa can speak fluently, and the voice-actuated system Amazon Echo can sit in our kitchen and answer our questions during our daily life (in fact it now has its own app store). The new system Viv, developed by the inventors of Siri, is supposedly so smart it can write its own software and improve itself over time. Robots, which cost an average of $500,000 in 2008, cost an average of $22,000 today and real-time sensors that let robots polish equipment with eyes as good as ours now cost less than $2,000. So companies like Amazon can use robots like Kiva to select items, stack them, package them, and ship them with almost no human intervention. In China, the largest market for robots, the growth rate has been accelerated (China has only 36 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers in China, whereas in Japan there are 315 robots per 10,000 workers, and in South Korea, 478. So China, a country with a slowing birthrate, is investing in robots at the rate of almost 100,000 per year. While in some cases robots eliminate jobs, our research shows that the predominant effect is what we call “augmented work.” Amazon’s use of robots made people more efficient by bringing the products to them, enabling them to focus on value add like gift-wrapping and completing the packing process for shipment. A new software engine from a company called Enilitics can read x-rays and has been proven 50% more effective at detecting cancer. Radiologists can process 2-3 times as many cases and are now far more accurate. Insurance companies like Geico now let customers take pictures of their auto claims and AI systems can identify the car model, recognize the damage, and estimate the amount of repair without human interaction. And of course we’ve all read the stories about self-driving cars. In April over a dozen self-driving trucks drove across Europe, threatening the 1.6 million truck drivers jobs—and of course impacting the demand for fast food, rest stops, and motels along the way.
  2. Companies like John Deere have brought AI, sensors, and robotics together to automate farming: their machines can plow fields, carefully plant seedlings in exactly the right soil location, use infrared detection and weather forecasts to decide how much water and fertilizer to use, pick the plants when they’re ripened, and then decide how much mulch to add when the soil needs replenishing. The job of the farmer is to watch and monitor these machines. And the same is happening in white collar jobs. The field of RPA, or Robotic Process Automation, lets companies automate their back office financial processing, look at auto accident photos to assess claim value, read medical tests to identify problems, and automate almost every complicated ERP transaction humans previously undertaken by humans.
  3. The findings 92 percent of companies believe that redesigning the organization is important, making it No. 1 in ranked importance among this year’s respondents. Companies are decentralizing authority, moving toward product- and customer-centric organizations, and forming dynamic networks of highly empowered teams that communicate and coordinate activities in unique and powerful ways. Three in four respondents report that they are either currently restructuring their organization or have recently completed the process.   Why is this? A new mode of organization—a “network of teams” with a high degree of empowerment, strong communication, and rapid information flow—is now sweeping business and governments around the world. The growth of the Millennial demographic, the diversity of global teams, and the need to innovate and work more closely with customers are driving a new organizational flexibility among high-performing companies. They are operating as a network of teams alongside traditional structures, with people moving from team to team rather than remaining in static formal configurations. Two major factors are driving change. Small teams can deliver results faster, engage people better, and stay closer to their mission. Second, the digital revolution helps teams stay aligned. Today, teams use web or mobile apps to share goals, keep up to date on customer interactions, communicate product quality or brand issues, and build a common culture.   What’s needed? The days of the top-down hierarchical organization are slowly coming to an end, but changing the organization chart is only a small part of the transition to the network of teams. Now, more than ever, is the time to challenge traditional organizational structures, empower teams, hold people accountable, and focus on building a culture of shared information, shared vision, and shared direction.
  4. Key points to highlight: Over the last two years, we have discovered that responses to questions 1, 2, and 4 are the strongest drivers of increasing engagement and performance We have also discovered that if the responses to questions 4 and 8 decline over time, then there is a risk of voluntary attrition for the responder
  5. The findings 92 percent of companies believe that redesigning the organization is important, making it No. 1 in ranked importance among this year’s respondents. Companies are decentralizing authority, moving toward product- and customer-centric organizations, and forming dynamic networks of highly empowered teams that communicate and coordinate activities in unique and powerful ways. Three in four respondents report that they are either currently restructuring their organization or have recently completed the process.   Why is this? A new mode of organization—a “network of teams” with a high degree of empowerment, strong communication, and rapid information flow—is now sweeping business and governments around the world. The growth of the Millennial demographic, the diversity of global teams, and the need to innovate and work more closely with customers are driving a new organizational flexibility among high-performing companies. They are operating as a network of teams alongside traditional structures, with people moving from team to team rather than remaining in static formal configurations. Two major factors are driving change. Small teams can deliver results faster, engage people better, and stay closer to their mission. Second, the digital revolution helps teams stay aligned. Today, teams use web or mobile apps to share goals, keep up to date on customer interactions, communicate product quality or brand issues, and build a common culture.   What’s needed? The days of the top-down hierarchical organization are slowly coming to an end, but changing the organization chart is only a small part of the transition to the network of teams. Now, more than ever, is the time to challenge traditional organizational structures, empower teams, hold people accountable, and focus on building a culture of shared information, shared vision, and shared direction.
  6. (c) Bersin and Associates
  7. As the crowd and gig-economy jobs proliferate, massive convergence of industries and transformation of traditional organizational structures and workflow processes will unfold. The companies that embrace this disruption and balance new exponential tools and talent models with their core mission and values will be the ones that gain the most and succeed in an era of disruption