2. Flowchart business case
Forecasting Technology Cost/benefit Evaluation
assignment model
Forecasting the
number of
train passengers
Determining
rollout scheme
Calculating Determining
potential Internet min. technology
on train users requirements
Computing Calculating
Output business
technical cost / benefit
model
scenarios model
2
3. Forecasting
First class adoption
20% Second class adoption
18%
Passenger forecasting 16%
100000 14%
12%
Relation
Number of passengers per day
80000 10%
Oostende - Eupen
8%
60000
6%
4%
40000
2%
0%
20000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
Adoption
3
4. Flowchart business case
Forecasting Technology Cost/benefit Evaluation
assignment model
Forecasting the
number of
train passengers
Determining
rollout scheme
Calculating Determining
potential Internet min. technology
on train users requirements
Computing Calculating
Output business
technical cost / benefit
model
scenarios model
4
5. Used outdoor technologies
Satellite
1. Inherent delay:
RTT ca. 500 ms
2. LOS required
1. Mobile networks 2. Wireless data networks 3. Satellite networks
GPRS / UMTS / HSDPA WiFi / WiMAX / Flash-OFDM DVB-S2 / DVB-RCS
Network from Dedicated network Suited for rural areas
mobile operators for Internet on the train (cf. high-speed trains)
5
7. Technology assignment
Main
scenarios
Specific cases Wireless data network Mobile network Satellite network
Case 1 UMTS Only UMTS/HSDPA
Case 2 UMTS+WiMAX WiMAX where UMTS/HSDPA is insufficient
Case 3 WiMAX+UMTS Pre-installed WiMAX network on certain tracks
Case 4 WiMAX STAT. Pre-installed WiMAX antennas in stations
Case 5 WiMAX
Full WiMAX network
Case 6 SAT. 1 WAY 1 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA for uplink connection / gap filler
Case 7 SAT. 2 WAY 2 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA as gap filler
7
9. Flowchart business model
Forecasting Technology Cost/benefit Evaluation
assignment model
Forecasting the
number of
train passengers
Determining
rollout scheme
Calculating Determining
potential Internet min. technology
on train users requirements
Computing Calculating
Output business
technical cost / benefit
model
scenarios model
9
11. Revenue schemes
Ticket types
Prepaid cards per hour (e.g. hotspot service)
Monthly subscriptions
Ticket price
Dependent on offered service: €2.9 – €3.9 (5 - 55 kbps)
Service of 30 kbps: Prepaid: €3.4 / Subscription: €18
Two revenue scenarios
Both first and second class paying
First class free Internet, second class paying
Modal switch from 1st to 2nd class!!!
11
12. Flowchart business case
Forecasting Technology Cost/benefit Evaluation
assignment model
Forecasting the
number of
train passengers
Determining
rollout scheme
Calculating Determining
potential Internet min. technology
on train users requirements
Computing Calculating
Output business
technical cost / benefit
model
scenarios model
12
13. NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
15
10
UMTS
5 WIMAX
NPV [M€]
UMTS + WIMAX
0
WIMAX + UMTS
-5 WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
-10 SAT 2 WAY
-15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
13
14. NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
15
10
UMTS
5 WIMAX
NPV [M€]
UMTS + WIMAX
0
WIMAX + UMTS
-5 WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
-10 SAT 2 WAY
-15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
14
15. NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
15
10
UMTS
5 WIMAX
NPV [M€]
UMTS + WIMAX
0
WIMAX + UMTS
-5 WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
-10 SAT 2 WAY
-15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
15
16. NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
15
10
UMTS
5 WIMAX
NPV [M€]
UMTS + WIMAX
0
WIMAX + UMTS
-5 WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
-10 SAT 2 WAY
-15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
16
17. NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
15
10
UMTS
5 WIMAX
NPV [M€]
UMTS + WIMAX
0
WIMAX + UMTS
-5 WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
-10 SAT 2 WAY
-15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
17
18. Sensitivity results
CASE 1 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
UMTS Mobile networks
Bandwidth per user -94%
Due to the high bandwidth
Number of SIM cards per train 2%
cost for UMTS
Second class adoption 1%
Modal switch 1%
Cellular bandwidth cost -1%
CASE 5 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
WiMAX
Full WiMAX network Second class adoption 51%
More users + more Bandwidth per user 30%
bandwidth (less important Tariff per hour -10%
with dedicated networks) Modal switch 4%
= higher revenue Leasing percentage poles 2%
18
19. Optimisations
Adapted rollout schemes
Heuristics (~ rolling out the right lines)
Based on number of passengers per train relation
Based on the route of a train relation
Based on interdependencies between train relations
Real options (~ rolling out on the right moment)
To introduce flexibility in the rollout time line
Rollout speed is adapted
19
20. Conclusions
Combination of technologies required
Dense railway network: UMTS + WiMAX
Rural railway network: Satellite solutions
Business case
Positive case in Belgium is possible
Influenced by many factors
User forecasting, rollout scheme, offered bandwidth
Business models
Role and participation of the partners important
20
21. Thanks for your attention!
Personal details:
Name: Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem
Company: IBBT – IBCN – UGent
Phone: +32 9 331 49 81
E-mail: bart.lannoo@intec.ugent.be
jan.vanooteghem@intec.ugent.be
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