Visit the Solar Institute for details of the 2011 Solar Symposium: solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

1. The GW Solar Institute 3rd Annual Symposium
Solar Energy: A Critical Component of Meeting the Clean Energy Challenge
Transmission for Meeting
the Solar Grand Plan
April 26, 2011
Steven Burns
The George Washington University

2. The Solar Grand Plan provides a vision for a
transition to renewable energy-based power
Construction of large-scale renewable …requires a realistic deployment
energy transmission capacity… schedule with several considerations
• Transmission capacity limits
• Power grid stability
• Load scheduling and energy storage
• Spinning reserve requirements
• Project construction timelines
• Material availability
• Balancing local versus imported
generation
Source: Scientific American Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

3. The need for the Solar Grand Plan: renewable
energy generation can’t be entirely local
• Projections indicate that approximately 150 GW of generation capacity additions
will be necessary in the next 25 years to meet future energy demand
• Optimal renewable resource is remote from primary load centers and the markets
most supportive of renewable energy
Optimal solar resource exists in the …but the most lucrative power markets are
Southwest… in the Northeast.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Source: Energy Information Administration

4. Power grid congestion limits the ability to
transfer renewable energy-based electricity
Transmission networks link high resource …but transfer is limited by capacity and
areas to load centers… significant power grid congestion.
Source: Energy Velocity
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

5. A generation and transmission buildout is
projected via a linear optimization model
Model solves for generation & transmission
Insert text to meet demand, considering the need
for…
• Spinning reserve & reserve
margin
• Capacity constraints
• Resource & material
availability
• Regulatory environment
Source: Energy Velocity
Initial conditions based on a
review of…
• Over 20,000 electric generating
facilities
• 10,000 utility transmission
interconnections
• 130 balancing authorities
• Department of Energy
electricity demand projections

6. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary to
most efficiently meet existing targets

7. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary to
most efficiently meet existing targets

8. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary to
most efficiently meet existing targets

9. Base case model outputs are similar to other
studies
Insert text
The solar model projects
relatively limited wind power
buildout in the northern Great
Plains.
Primary power flows are into the
Northeast and from the Northwest into
California
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

10. Increased natural gas prices have a minor
effect on the project transmission buildout

11. Solar power deployment significantly
increases under lessened capital costs &
shortened development timelines

12. Solar power deployment significantly
increases under lessened capital costs &
shortened development timelines

13. Solar power deployment significantly
increases under lessened capital costs &
shortened development timelines

14. A national RPS leads to significant renewable
energy expansion

15. A national RPS leads to significant renewable
energy expansion

16. A national RPS leads to significant renewable
energy expansion

17. Summary
• Renewable energy buildout is hampered by the lack of renewable resource relative
to primary energy markets and the limited capability of the electric transmission
system.
• Large-scale renewable energy penetration will require significant upgrades to the
existing transmission system.
• Given long lead times associated with transmission buildout, an expedited
permitting process will yield more efficient transmission systems and a significant
cost savings.
• A 20% capital cost reduction in solar PV technology will make PV-based electricity
more competitive.
• Long distance transmission of PV-based electricity from the Southwest to the
Northeast is cost effective relative to local generation.
• Without significant storage capability, wind and solar power will have difficultly
achieving expanded market penetration.
Preliminary results
Not for official distribution