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Steve Burns | GW EMSE-EEM

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Visit the Solar Institute for details of the 2011 Solar Symposium: solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

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Steve Burns | GW EMSE-EEM

  1. 1. The GW Solar Institute 3rd Annual Symposium Solar Energy: A Critical Component of Meeting the Clean Energy Challenge Transmission for Meeting the Solar Grand Plan April 26, 2011 Steven Burns The George Washington University
  2. 2. The Solar Grand Plan provides a vision for a transition to renewable energy-based powerConstruction of large-scale renewable …requires a realistic deploymentenergy transmission capacity… schedule with several considerations • Transmission capacity limits • Power grid stability • Load scheduling and energy storage • Spinning reserve requirements • Project construction timelines • Material availability • Balancing local versus imported generation Source: Scientific American Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
  3. 3. The need for the Solar Grand Plan: renewable energy generation can’t be entirely local • Projections indicate that approximately 150 GW of generation capacity additions will be necessary in the next 25 years to meet future energy demand • Optimal renewable resource is remote from primary load centers and the markets most supportive of renewable energyOptimal solar resource exists in the …but the most lucrative power markets areSouthwest… in the Northeast. Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Source: Energy Information Administration
  4. 4. Power grid congestion limits the ability to transfer renewable energy-based electricityTransmission networks link high resource …but transfer is limited by capacity andareas to load centers… significant power grid congestion. Source: Energy Velocity Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
  5. 5. A generation and transmission buildout is projected via a linear optimization model Model solves for generation & transmission Insert text to meet demand, considering the need for… • Spinning reserve & reserve margin • Capacity constraints • Resource & material availability • Regulatory environment Source: Energy VelocityInitial conditions based on areview of…• Over 20,000 electric generating facilities• 10,000 utility transmission interconnections• 130 balancing authorities• Department of Energy electricity demand projections
  6. 6. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary tomost efficiently meet existing targets
  7. 7. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary tomost efficiently meet existing targets
  8. 8. Extensive grid buildout will be necessary tomost efficiently meet existing targets
  9. 9. Base case model outputs are similar to otherstudiesInsert text The solar model projects relatively limited wind power buildout in the northern Great Plains.Primary power flows are into theNortheast and from the Northwest intoCalifornia Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
  10. 10. Increased natural gas prices have a minoreffect on the project transmission buildout
  11. 11. Solar power deployment significantlyincreases under lessened capital costs &shortened development timelines
  12. 12. Solar power deployment significantlyincreases under lessened capital costs &shortened development timelines
  13. 13. Solar power deployment significantlyincreases under lessened capital costs &shortened development timelines
  14. 14. A national RPS leads to significant renewableenergy expansion
  15. 15. A national RPS leads to significant renewableenergy expansion
  16. 16. A national RPS leads to significant renewableenergy expansion
  17. 17. Summary• Renewable energy buildout is hampered by the lack of renewable resource relative to primary energy markets and the limited capability of the electric transmission system.• Large-scale renewable energy penetration will require significant upgrades to the existing transmission system.• Given long lead times associated with transmission buildout, an expedited permitting process will yield more efficient transmission systems and a significant cost savings.• A 20% capital cost reduction in solar PV technology will make PV-based electricity more competitive.• Long distance transmission of PV-based electricity from the Southwest to the Northeast is cost effective relative to local generation.• Without significant storage capability, wind and solar power will have difficultly achieving expanded market penetration. Preliminary results Not for official distribution

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