While most forecasting agencies for energy storage discount the size of African markets in this segment, the reality is quite different. In 2020, South Africa was already the 6th larges residential market for energy storage. Based on Bushveld's analysis, it will likely be a top-5 market with 10-15% of the global market share for utility scale storage in 2022.

1. Bushveld Energy
Thought piece
June 2021
South Africa is a top-5 market
for BESS in the world

2. 2
According to BNEF, energy storage will grow 122 times by
2040, but South Africa is not singled out as a top market
Source: BNEF
BNEF does not single out South
Africa (or even Africa as a region) as a
top market for energy storage in its
assessments
Energy storage installations
GW, cumulative

3. 3
Even forecasts that specify Africa, show a fairly
small market
Source: Guidehouse Insights; https://www.pimagazine-asia.com/chinas-demand-for-utility-scale-storage-will-see-asia-pacific-overtake-north-america/
Annual global installed utility-scale energy storage power capacity
MW

4. 4
The reality is that South Africa alone is already a
top market for energy storage
Source: HIS Markit, https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/13/strong-growth-ahead-for-battery-storage/
Quarterly residential energy storage shipments
MWh
• In 2020, South
Africa was the
6th largest
residential
energy storage
market in the
world
• The top five are
much wealthier,
developed
economies.

5. 5
South Africa is contracting nearly 1300 MW in utility storage
during 2021 for installation principally in 2022
Source: Eskom, IPP Office, DMRE, Bushveld Energy analysis
1 441
513
578
350
0 500 1000 1500
Total
IPP BESS Procurement
RMI4P Projects
Eskom BESS Programme
• SA utility ESKOM tendered in April 2021 for 198 MW and 827
MWh as part of a World bank funded BESS programme;
• A further 152 MW is expected to be tendered later in 2021
• 4 projects featuring a total of 428MW in battery storage co-
located with Gx assets were awarded as IPPs in Q1 2021 and
a further 150MW under value for money negotiation
• While a total of 8 projects and 1850 MW were awarded,
most used gas and only 428MW used storage
• An ESS-specific IPP round announced for H2 2021 by
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy for 513MW
• Amount is driven by allocation in the SA IRP 2019
• A total of nearly 1300 MW of utility scale storage is being
contracted in SA alone during 2021
• Most, if not all of this, is likely to be installed during 2022
• All is likely to be battery storage
Expected or existing utility scale storage procurement in South Africa during 2021, MW

6. 6
South Africa is likely to be a top 5 BESS market in 2022
1 441
4 200
8 000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
South Africa USA Global
Forecasted 2022 utility scale installations
MW
Source: USA forecast from Wood Mackenzie P&R/ESA U S energy storage monitor 2020 year in review; Global forecast from Guidehouse Insights; South
Africa forecast based on Bushveld Energy analysis
• ~8000 MW of utility energy
storage is forecast globally for
2022 by Guidehouse Insights,
although it assumes negligible
capacity from Africa
• South African may represent
~15% of the 2022 global market
• The US utility energy storage
market is forecast to be ~4200
MW by Wood Mackenzie
• While the US market is the largest
and roughly half of the global
market, South Africa is likely to be
larger than all but two or three
other countries in 2022

7. 7
Additional thoughts on the South Africa energy
storage market
Source: Bushveld Energy
• While South Africa is already the 6th largest residential ESS market and
will likely be a top-5 utility ESS market in 2022, there is additional
demand from C&I users and potential series of procurements by
municipal distribution networks
• The utility ESS demand in South Africa is unique in a number of ways
• Virtually all of the demand is long duration, with all procured
systems at least 4 hours in duration and some possibly exceeding 8
hours
• Growth in the market from virtually non-existent to top-5 is rare,
possibly matched only by S. Korea in the late 2010’s
• Unlike other large ESS markets, such as the US, China and S. Korea,
SA does not have a mature domestic ESS supply chain, creating a
massive opportunity for a local energy storage industry

8. 8
Appendix

9. 9
In 2022, the US energy storage market is forecast
to be around 5000 MW, with ~80% utility storage
Source: Wood Mackenzie P&R/ESA U S energy storage monitor 2020 year in review

10. 10
The 2019 IRP’s dedicated allocation for ESS alone is
significant - over 2000MW of new capacity within 8 years
Existing capacity in South Africa of 2,912MW, principally Pumped Hydro (PHS)
New capacity of 513MW in the next 2 years, but it is unclear whether this
includes or excludes:
• Eskom’s BESS programme (350MW)?
• ESS co-located with generation, such as those in the RMIPP?
Further 1, 575 MW capacity of 513MW over the following 7 years
• Despite allocation in one year, may well be distributed over preceding
years;
• May change over time, if newer IRP versions are promulgated in future;
• Total capacity of 5,000MW or 6.35% of entire power system;
• 1.2% of total electrical energy will go through storage in South Africa.
Source: SA IRP2019; SAESA

11. 11
How large is the actual upside for storage within the IRP due
to solar, wind, embedded and “emergency” allocations?
Source: SA IRP2019; SAESA
1 2 3
• The actual upside for storage within the
IRP could be quite higher.
• There is no detail on whether new
storage is standalone or whether it
includes storage that may be co-
located with a generator.
• Eskom’s battery programme features
both, with most of the storage in
Eskom’s plan standalone.
• There are three sources of potentially
even higher amounts storage through
co-location with:
1. Solar PV – which is expected to add a
further 6800 MW in generation
through 2030;
2. Wind – which is expected to add
nearly a further 16000 MW in
generation through 2030;
3. Embedded generation –is an
opportunity for small and medium
sized storage.

12. 12
While the IRP 2019 lists 513 MW of storage until late 2020’s,
this amount is already exceeded by battery announcements
Source: Bushveld Energy analysis
Entity MW announced Timing
Eskom – World Bank BESS programme 350MW 2021 and 2022
IPP Office – RMI4P awarded to RE+BESS bids Up to 578MW August 2022
Further near term ESS procurement by IPP O Up to 513MW Near term (according to DMRE)
Eskom – further BESS (funded by BRICS Bank) 350MW or more 2022-2024
Total (excluding behind the meter) 1 641 MW 2021-2024
Municipal procurement of ESS ?? Until 2025
Behind the meter >1MW or >50MW ?? Until 2025
Residential market 50-150MW Annually