Courtesy of my friend Mitch Lawrie
M.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAA
B. Regional & Town Planning (Hons).
Open, and honest discussion and presentation on the factors faced by all of us right now. The next 20 years will be most telling for us and our planet.
There are some very good suggestions on what to do and how to prepare.
http://www.transitionwise.org/
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6 Growing Global Stresses and How to Handle Them
1. Career Quakes Mitch Lawrie M.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAA B. Regional & Town Planning (Hons) Six Converging Global Stresses & What They May Mean for Careers! CDAA Conference 2010
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9. The ruling “gods” of our culture – Technology and the Market Our Saviours?
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13. Confusion Of Realms Inner Human No limits Creativity Positive belief Growth is always good Outer Physical Limits Sensitivity Realistic belief Growth always ends Experience Subjective Impacts Objective
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16. Global Stress 1 World Oil Production Limits - The Problem of “Peak Oil” Chapter 1
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20. WHY WILL CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION PEAK ? Oil Fields Peak The world will peak (All regions) Regions Peak (Many oil fields) Time - Decades Production 1945 2000 Year Production U.S Lower 48 States
21. WORLD IS CONSUMING MORE OIL AND FINDING LESS Past discovery by ExxonMobil 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Billions of Barrels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Past Future Production “ Growing Gap”
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31. GROWING OIL SHORTAGES WILL INDUCE GROWING WORLD “DEMAND DESTRUCTION” Supply Supply & Demand in Balance Minimal Disruption Recession Depression Demand Destruction
91. The 3 “Big E ’s” Are Converging 3 E’s will interact in increasing unpredictable ways Ultimately Environment and Energy will determine Economy E nviron -ment E conomy E nergy YOU
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94. Exponential Growth Society Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution Climax Techno-Explosion Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Collapse Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent - Deliberate Powerdown 4 Future Scenarios (adapted from David Holmgren www.futurescenarios.org )
95. Limits to Growth Modelling Suggests Techno-Explosion & Green Tech Stability The Least Likely
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100. Energy Descent Scenarios – Smooth Transition Is Least Likely in Real World Source: www.megatrends2020.com
125. Human Potential Is Still Amazing! Inner Human No limits Creativity Positive belief Growth is always good Outer Physical Limits Sensitivity Realistic belief Growth always ends Experience Subjective Impacts Objective
This shows the world situation. It is the most important slide I can show you. Exxon deserves huge credit for publishing it with good data and revisions properly backdated to discovery. World discovery has been falling relentlessly for 40 years. There is no good reason to expect the trend to change direction, so we can extrapolate it to indicate what is yet-to-find, shown in green. That might even be a bit optimistic. Consumption, shown in black, started to exceed discovery in 1981, and the gap is widening. We now use about five or six barrels for every one we find. Take a good look : it says it all.
05/01/10 This map shows trends in rainfall since 1950. Specifically it shows that along most of Australia’s coast, where over 90% of Australia’s population lives, rainfall has substantially declined although it has increased in the sparely inhabited North West of Australia. As a result of less rain and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia (IPCC, Working Group 2, 2007). This data and more support the projection made by CSIRO recently that droughts in NSW will be 70% more frequent and widespread with a temperature increase of greater than 1ºC. IPCC tells us that frequency will increase from an average of 3 droughts per decade to 4 droughts per decade by 2030. Note to presenters: Technically scientists will not yet make a direct claim that this drought is caused by climate change. Normally they would not make such a claim until they are 99% certain of that fact and that is not the case at the moment. Graeme Pearman tells us that the scientific community might not wait that long before making that statement – because of the magnitude of the impacts in this case – but it is still a matter of time before we can definitely say it is scientifically proven that this drought is due to global warming. BUT, several prominent studies (Nicholls 2004, Karoly and Braganza 2005) have linked record high temperatures during recent Australian droughts with Global Warming. A paper by leading IPCC scientists David Karoly (Melbourne Univeristy) and Karl Braganza (Bureau of Meteorology) shows that Australian temperature changes over the twentieth century were very unlikely to be due to natural climate variations alone. It is likely that there has been a significant contribution to the observed warming during the second half of the century from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols Source: Karoly and Braganza (2005). Attribution of Recent Temperature Changes in the Australian Region. Journal of Climate 18 :457-464. Renowned Australian meteorologist, Neville Nicholls (Monash University), has linked record high temperatures during recent Australian droughts with global warming. It is likely tthat future droughts will be warmer even if they are no drier - we have already started to see this happening. Source: Nicholls, N.(2004). The changing nature of Australian droughts, Climatic Change , 63 , 323-336.
Water use Vehicles Foreign investment Co2 Gdp Popn Loss of rainforest and woodlands Species extinction Fisheries exploitation Northern hemisphere average surface temp
05/01/10 This is the richard heinberg idea, we are probably at peak everything in the next decade or so We have climbed the curve, now at a climax This is a historical moment of choice, we need to choose our future Where are we going, what the possible futures?This slide maps out the four possible futures, taken from research and a number of different writers… Techno-fantasy - technical fix for every solution - every limit will be overcome by technology, if run out of oil use nuclear, tar sands - tremendous emotional and psychological investment in this - article in New Scientist re renewable energies, if we exploit all possible renewable energy then will be much more than ever with oil Green tech stability - have to reduce a little but then can stabilise at high level of material affluence - green fix, use far less energy and resources - radical- not continued growth Earth stewardship - permaculture & transition solution - say need to find way to come down it - reduce levels of consumption & energy use, different ways of organising society and our lives which are more sustainable - option is that we are not going to fall down or but to come down in sensible way Mad max - nothing in place to help us manage the descent - banking system, grow and grow and now falling apart Then do credibility monitor for each Interesting to look at these scenarios as psychological positions One bit of psychology of change as how do we respond to having significant change being forced on us Technofantasy is position of denial- technology as god Mad max is polarity- anger or despair, doesn’t matter if wiped off planet as we are violent anyway, lots of suffering involved in that, lots of denial in there too, angry and despairing position to take. E.g. in US resilience so low and disbelief Lots of people are caught between those two, only two they can see Green tech stability- Interesting position- changed light bulbs but now go on holiday to canaries and keep on buying bananas, bargaining, we can scrape thru without changing too much if we are very good- very attractive to business Earth stewardship Sane acceptance, we come down off this curve and use it as an opportunity to increase quality of life and social justice… At moment of choice, need to focus our vision, make it into a turning point, The Great Turning
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