About GOWEX (GOW-MAB, ALGOW-NYSE Alternext)
http://www.gowex.com/en/investors-shareholders/
GOWEX (GOW-MAB, ALGOW-NYSE Euronext) it’s been 13 years operating in the Telecommunication sector and it’s currently leading the creation of WiFi Cities offering Free & Premium WiFi connectivity in streets and transportation. The company is now exporting the innovative business models in many cities in Europe, Latin America, Asia and in emerging countries.
In 2010, it has become the first and only Spanish SMB to make a “dual listing”, publicly traded in the MAB (GOW) and the NYSE-Euronext (ALGOW). The company's total revenue in 2011 amounted to 66,7 million euros. On July 2011 GOWEX subscribed a 7 million € capital increase with a 100 % over-demand (doubling expectations).
With offices in Madrid, Burgos, Buenos Aires, London, San José (Costa Rica), Paris and Shanghai, GOWEX develops a sustainable business model in their WiFi networks, based in efficient and technical quality of their patented platforms: The Roaming platform, which allows users to connect freely in all the cities, the Geolocalization Content and Advertisement platform, which provides a financing business through marketing and advertisement agreements.
In 2011, GOWEX joined the Wireless Broadband Alliance and received a prize for the “Best Web Company” in the Internet Day
In February 2012, Jenaro Garcia GOWEX CEO, received the “Entrepreneur of the Year Award” by Ernst & Young in the category of Innovation
1. Gowex
Spain/ Telecommunications Company update
Investment Research Reason: Estimates Revision 20 July 2012
Buy Capturing Wi-Fi growth
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR 6.01
In our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telecommunications
closing price as of 19/07/2012
sector, being a winning horse within the wireless broadband growth trend, and
Target price: EUR 10.70
the increasing use of Wi-Fi. Despite the positive market performance (+19% in last
from Target Price: EUR 6.80
12 months), at current market price Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and
Reuters/Bloomberg GOW.MC/GOW SQ
P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44% EPS, net cash of
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 8,380 EUR22m (28% of current market cap), international growth (42% international sales in
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0.04 2011) and positive news flow.
Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.40
Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.33 Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in
Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.2% line with the positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1)
Abs. perf. 3 mth -2.1% compliance with 2011 guidance: EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m
Abs. perf. 12 mth 19.2% guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing backlog (cities, transportation
Market capitalisation (EURm) 78 agencies in countries such as China, France, Argentina) and new roaming
Current N° of shares (m) 13 agreements.
Free float 30%
The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing
Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e
connectivity and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and
Sales (m) 67 94 117 connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Gowex is a
EBITDA (m) 17 24 29 neutral manager within the Wi-Fi sector, positioning itself in the middle of the
EBITDA margin 24.8% 25.1% 25.2%
value chain, offering a neutral and transparent interconnection point, and solutions
EBIT (m) 10 17 20
EBIT margin 14.2% 17.8% 17.5% to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between a growing number
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 7 13 15 of operators; 3) population need to access high speed mobility data; 4) improving
ROCE 44.5% 49.9% 39.9% coverage deficit.
Net debt/(cash) (m) (22) (18) (18)
Net Debt Equity -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m),
Net Debt/EBITDA -1.3 -0.8 -0.6
+7.6% EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% Net Profit (EUR7.2m). The results came
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) (125.8) (134.9) (204.2)
EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.5
in above Gowex’ guidance and our estimates (20% in sales, and 37% in EBITDA).
EV/EBITDA 2.4 2.5 2.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 2.4 2.5 2.0
The company presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of
EV/EBIT 4.2 3.5 2.9 EUR22.1m. Despite the more intense CAPEX in 2012-13e (co-investment,
P/E (adj.) 8.6 6.1 5.2 accelerating the capturing of critical mass), we do not expect a substantial erosion
P/BV 1.8 1.6 1.2 in the company’s financial situation due to the strong cash flow generation.
OpFCF yield 58.8% 14.8% 21.7%
Dividend yield 1.3% 2.5% 2.9% Estimates and valuation: Following 2011 results and the positive commercial
EPS (adj.) 0.56 0.99 1.17
BVPS 2.72 3.70 4.86
performance, we have adjusted upward our estimates (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e)
DPS 0.08 0.15 0.17 and our fair value up to EUR10.7/share (+57% DCF valuation: WACC 14.5% and
g=2.0%). Our new FV implies EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x. We
estimate CAGR 2011-13e of 32% in revenues, +34% in EBITDA and +44% in Net
Profit (all organic).
6.5 dv sdy
v v dsv
6.0 Its US peer, Boingo, trades at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x, well above Gowex’ 2.5x (at
5.5 our EUR10.7/share, GOW would trade at a 30% discount vs. Boingo in terms of
5.0 EV/EBITDA).
4.5
4.0
Buy recommendation, in light of the 78% upside potential to our new fair value. In
3.5
our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telcos sector, as a winner
Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12
within the mobile broadband growth trend and increasing use of Wi-Fi.
GOWEX MAB (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Shareholders: Jenaro García 60%; Alvasebi 10%;
Analyst(s): David Cabeza Jareño +34 91 4367818 dcabeza@bankia.com
For company description please see summary table footnote
Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”),
Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, TheMarkets.com, FactSet
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
2. Gowex
CONTENIDOS
Capturing Wi-Fi growth .............................................................................. 3
High double digit growth and improving mix. ......................................... 4
Improving profitability 6
Positive news flow: increasing critical mass 7
Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks ................... 8
Gowex. Positioning and strategy ............................................................ 10
Organic growth 10
Co-investment to accelerate growth 11
Inorganic growth 12
Estimates adjusted ................................................................................... 13
Financial strength. EUR22m net cash. 13
Valuation EUR10.7/share ......................................................................... 14
Multiples comparison 15
Comparable transactions 16
Market performance and shareholder structure 16
Risk Factors 17
Annex ......................................................................................................... 18
Company description and history 18
ESN Recommendation System ............................................................... 25
Page 2
3. Gowex
Capturing Wi-Fi growth
Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in line with the
positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1) compliance with 2011 guidance:
EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing
backlog (cities, transport means, especially abroad) and new roaming agreements.
The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing connectivity
services and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and connected handsets)
and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. According to Cisco, mobile data traffic will
double worldwide in 2012, and traffic will increase another 78% until 2014. In parallel, we
observe a similar growth in Wi-Fi: the number of Wi-Fi connection points is expected to
reach 2.7m in 2014, with use growing 200%. Gowex occupies a neutral management
position within the sector, positioning itself in the middle of the value chain, offering a neutral
and transparent interconnection point, and solutions to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of
interconnection between the growing number of operators; 3) population need to access high
speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage deficit.
Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m), +7.6%
EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% net profit (EUR7.2m). The results came in above Gowex’
guidance and our estimates (20% above sales, EUR56m, and 37% higher in EBITDA,
EUR12m). Following 2011 results and the positive commercial performance, we have
adjusted estimates up (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e) and our fair value to EUR10.7/share
(+57%), discounting EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x.
Gowex. Main figures
2010 2011 Var % 2010 2011 Var %
Revenues 49.6 66.7 34% WiFi cities 35 52 49%
Gowex Telecom 23 20 -13% Transportation agencies 1 15 1400%
Gowex Wireless 26.7 46.5 74% Freemium users (m) 340 740 118%
Gross Margin 18.5 29.8 61% Pages viewed (m) 1450 4600 217%
Gowex Telecom 4.3 5.8 35% Roaming operators 65 95 46%
Gowex Wireless 14.2 23.9 68% Revenues Spain 70% 58% -12.0 p.p.
EBITDA 9.4 16.5 76% Revenues International 30% 42% 12.0 p.p.
Net Profit 5.1 7.2 41% Recurrent revenues (Wireless) 55% 63% 8.0 p.p.
Source: Gowex:
Despite the positive market performance, at current market price Gowex trades at
EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44%
EPS, net cash of EUR22m (28% capitalization), international growth (42% international
sales in 2011) and positive news flow. It’s US peer, Boingo (USD250m market cap), trades
at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x and P/E 12e 37x, well above Gowex’ current multiples. We
recommend Buy, considering the 78% upside potential to our fair value (EUR10.7/share).
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4. Gowex
High double digit growth and improving mix.
In 2011, 70% of the revenues (80% of gross margin) were generated in Gowex Wireless
(vs. 54% in 2010), with 52 cities, 15 transport means and 95 operators (vs. 35, 1 and 65
respectively a year earlier). The remaining 30% was generated in Gowex Telecom. 42% of the
revenues were generated abroad (vs. 30% in 2010), reinforcing its presence in Europe,
LatAm and Asia, with integral Wi-Fi city modules (development, commercialisation and
management).
Gowex: Activity Revenues Mix (2011) Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2011)
Engineering International
& consulting 42%
41%
Network Media
(roaming & platform
offloading) 6%
23% Gowex Spain
Telecom 58%
30%
Gowex. Revenues Per Activity (2007-13e) Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2007-13e)
140 140.0
120 Gowex Telecom Gowex Wireless 120.0 Spain International
100 100.0
59.9
80 80.0
95 45.4
60 73 60.0
28.0
40 47 40.0 14.9
27 4.8
11 57.1
20 3 20.0 1.6 49.1
1 0.0 30.4 34.7 38.7
17 21 25 23 20 21 22 17.0 22.6
0 0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Source: Gowex. Estiamtes Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowe. Estimates Bankia Bolsa
Gowex Wireless represented 70% of the revenues in 2011 and 80% of Gowex’ gross
margin, generating EUR47m revenues (vs. EUR3m in 2008). Out of its 3 segments, network
and engineering activities are performing better than expected, whereas media is evolving
below estimates, affected by the economic context in Spain. In 2011, 63% of Gowex Wireless’
revenues were recurrent (vs. 55% in 2010). We distinguish:
1) The Network activity (32% of Gowex Wireless revenues in 2011) includes recurrent
roaming, offloading, interconnection and access activities. Sales grew +78% in 2011
thanks to the increasing critical mass and the greater use of wireless services
(resulting in increasing roaming, offloading and interconnections for Gowex). Currently
there are over 95 operators using the platform, creating a network with >400,000 access
points (the clients of these operators are potential consumers of Gowex’ roaming
services).
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5. Gowex
2) Engineering, consultancy and maintenance (58% Wireless revenues in 2011). Gowex
offers the following services: a) consultancy: designing the network, non-recurrent
revenues, high margins; b) installation: Gowex controls the process, but outsources the
physical installation to an engineer, non-recurrent revenues and margins in line with the
group’s average; and c) management/maintenance of Wi-Fi networks: software
maintenance, generating recurrent revenues and margins in line with the group’s
average. The better than estimated performance of this unit was owing to the good
performance of international projects, trend that we believe will continue in upcoming
years, bearing in mind the recently announced agreements with cities and transport
companies.
3) Media (9% Wireless revenues in 2011) includes advertising, applications and services.
Despite growing +30% in revenues to EUR4.3m, it is the activity with the worse relative
performance in 2011, affected by the difficult advertising scenario. In our view, the higher
weight of the international activity (opening of new international Wi-Fi cities) and the
heavy weight of geo-localised advertising in the advertising mix should result in growths
in future years (we estimate 2 fold revenues in 2013 vs. 2011).
Gowex Wireless. Recurrent Revenues Gowex Wireless: Network (roaming, offloading, access)
50.0 46.1
50 Recurrent Non recurrent 45.0 Network (roaming & offloading)
45 40.0
40 35.0
17
35 27.2
30.0
30
25.0
25
20 12 20.0
15.0
15 29 15.0
8.4
10 10.0
15 3.7
5 5.0 0.7
0 0.0
2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Gowex Wireless. Engineering Gowex Wireless. Media
45.0 10.0
39.5 39.7 8.7
40.0 9.0
Engineering & consulting Media platform
35.0 8.0
30.0 27.2 7.0 6.3
6.0
25.0
5.0 4.3
20.0
15.0 4.0 3.3
15.0
3.0
10.0 6.4 2.0
5.0 2.5
1.0 0.3
0.0
0.0 0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa
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6. Gowex
Gowex Telecom (30% revenues and 20% gross margin) is focused on B2B products and
telecommunication services (broadband, data transmission circuits, private virtual networks,
etc) via its commercial exchange platform. Telecom revenues proceed from the following:
Adhesion fee for new members (interconnection and physical infrastructure) and of
membership (monthly), according to volume, lines to be connected, etc.
Fees from purchase/sales operations in broad band at transparent and competitive
prices, data transmission circuits, voice services.
Consultancy, and infrastructure management services (monitorising, management and
back-up) and equipment storage.
Since 2010, the company is modifying the way in which revenues and costs proceeding from
intermediation are accounted (end of the process in 2012). The intention is to adjust the
accounting of the affiliate to the scope of intermediation. The impact on results has been lower
revenues and costs in 2010 and 2011. The gross margin in absolute terms has not been
affected nor the rest of the P&L lines which depend on the gross margin (to be determined by
the net result in added value service sales plus fees accrued from intermediation services).
Despite the fall in revenues in 2011 (see table), the gross margin increased (+35%, EUR5.8m)
thanks to the higher volumes. Including the intermediation activity, growth would have reached
+79% (from EUR27.0m to EUR48.3m). For the next few years we estimate a prudent, single
digit growth in sales and stable gross margin (28% vs. 29% in 2011).
Gowex Telecom. Sales & Gross Margin (2007-13e) Gowex Telecom. Functioning
30.0 35%
Sales Gross margin (%)
25.0 30%
25%
20.0
20%
15.0
15%
10.0
10%
5.0 5%
0.0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex
Improving profitability
The change in revenues mix, with greater weight of Wireless (wider margins), explains
the better margins seen in recent years, from 9.5% EBITDA margin in 2008 to 24.8% in
2011. Regarding EBIT margin, in 2011 EUR3.5m were provisions (5% of the sales vs. 3% in
2010, we are estimating EUR2.0m for 2012-13e), and an accelerated depreciation of assets
was carried out which partially explains the lower rise in percentage points of the EBIT margin.
For 2012 we estimate EBITDA mg of 25.1%, to remain stable in 2013-14e and EBIT margin
of 17.5% to 18% in said period, with costs growing in line with revenues.
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7. Gowex
Gowex. Sales & Margins Performance (2008-14e) Gowex. Better Pipeline
Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex
Positive news flow: increasing critical mass
Throughout 2011 and year to date, the news flow and commercial momentum has been
positive, reinforcing Gowex’s pipeline. We highlight:
15 public transport companies (EMT Madrid, Buenos Aires’ underground).
France: Bordeaux (Dec’11), Gowex’ first Wi-Fi city in France, Paris (announced in June
2012, 48 transport station).
Argentina: 5 cities, urban transport.
China: Increasing penetration. Agreement with CRSC (second rail engineering company
in China), high speed trains, 1 city in China (Nanjing).
Agreements with iPass, Boingo, Nintendo, AT&T, Skype, Korean Telecom, MASMovil
Gowex formed part of WBA (Wireless Broadband Alliance, 95 operators).
Offices opened in Shanghai, Paris, Buenos Aires, London, US and Arabian Emirates.
Creation of Gowex Mobile, focusing on developing applications based on services for
mobile handsets, making access to geo-localised, discount and downloading easier for WI-
FI network users.
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8. Gowex
Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks
The Wi-Fi services market continues growing substantially, at the same time as mobile
data traffic, leaning on the increasing connectivity services (high demand of smartphones,
tablets, and connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Much of the
consumptions in wireless data take place in fixed or nomad areas, where Wi-Fi services can
be found at low costs (and frequently for free). As a result, consumers have learned to accept
Wi-Fi as a complement to the 3G and 4G data programs. Some relevant figures:
According to the Wireless Broadband Alliance (report 2011), the number of public
Wi-Fi access points around the world will increase from 1.3m in 2011 to 5.8m in
2015 (CAGR 20’11-153 +45%).
According to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI), mobile data traffic will
multiply by 256x between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes/month in 2015. The
global mobile traffic will continue exploding, growing 3x quicker than fixed IP traffic
during the same period.
Have telecom operators considered Wi-Fi priority in recent years? In general the answer
would be no. Telecom operators have concentrated on developing 3G networks (and
designing 4G). Wi-Fi had simply grown in parallel. Some recent changes (included in Cisco’s
VNI) are:
1) Strong growth of terminals with Wi-Fi. ABI Research estimates a prudent rise in
terminals with Wi-Fi (smartphones, tablets, video game consoles) of >300% between
2009-2015, up to over 2bn world-wide.
2) Half the mobile traffic in networks is Wi-Fi
3) Substantial growth in Wi-Fi access points
4) Increasing moves from free access to Wi-Fi hotspots.
5) Wi-Fi is becoming a viable, mobile data downloading technology.
6) Wi-Fi is forming part of the more ample, wireless network design.
Projected Global IP Traffic by Access Network. Wi-Fi hotspots world-wide (millions)
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index. Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015 Source: Alcatel Lucent (2012, report Telecoms&Media)
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9. Gowex
Given the fundamental changes in the market, Cisco considers Wi-Fi will be a viable
alternative to the wireless access network. The technology is ready, there is ample
coverage, and clients are using Wi-Fi as an alternative to mobile networks. Additionally,
service providers are finding new ways to monetize investments via the creation of Wi-Fi
networks.
Location of Mobile Data usage (% of Time Spent in Activity). Wi-Fi Access by U.S. Smartphone Users (% o/total Browsing)
Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch Source: Cisco IBSG Mobile Cloud Watch, 2011
Based on observations, investigations and experience in the industry and interactions with
service providers, Cisco has made 6 assertions regarding WI-FI’s future and its relation
with traditional mobile telephony networks.
1) Wi-Fi covers the majority of the locations where present.
2) Much of what we do is nomad, not mobile.
3) The new nomad terminals will consume even higher amounts of mobile data.
4) Consumers use Wi-Fi easily as a substitute or complement to mobile
5) Wi-Fi can offer a more profitable solution and better user experience
6) There are various alternatives to develop profitable Wi-Fi models.
Wi-Fi. Business models (I) Wi-Fi. Business model (II). Source of value and returns
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011 Source: Cisco IBSG, 2012
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10. Gowex
Gowex. Positioning and strategy
The context is therefore favourable for Gowex’ business model. The growth outlook for
the mobile data market, the new terminals, new applications and services related to mobility
are exceptional. Demand on behalf of users and need to lay out wireless networks is ever
increasing, as well as the number of operators (wireless market with higher number of
operators vs. mobile telephony). Wi-Fi is amongst the highest growth technologies thanks to the
low development cost (a tenth of 3G), the use of frequencies are not subject to licenses (2.4GHz and
5GHz) and the high number of terminals integrating WI-FI technology.
Gowex occupies a neutral management position within the Wi-Fi sector, offering solutions
to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between the growing number of
operators; 3) population need to access high speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage
deficit. Gowex positions itself in the centre of wireless internet value chain, offering a neutral
and transparent interconnection point.
Gowex’s growth keys are: 1) positioning of Gowex’ Roaming Platform as a reference
solution in the market for various agents (that we believe will be achieved with the increasing
number of cities connected); 2) international expansion via agreements with cities; and 3)
potential operating leverage (scalable model); 4) capacity to monetise Wi-Fi networks via the
advertising WILOC platform and geo-localised contents.
Gowex. Positioning Gowex. Revenues Diversification
Soruce: Gowex Source: Gowex
Organic growth
Gowex enjoys a leading position and high penetration in exploiting Wi-Fi cities in Spain,
while progressively increasing its international presence. The company’s strategy is to
repeat the successful business model in other markets and cities in Europe, Asia and Latin
America (considering co-investments as an alternative), and continue attracting operators. The
circle is virtuous, in which the increasing critical mass and access points increases the
company’s appeal, be it to obtain new contracts in cities (developing Wi-Fi cities) and
operators (roaming, offloading) apart from geographically diversifying revenues. Specifically
speaking we highlight the following strategy lines:
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11. Gowex
Continue growing in Wi-Fi cities and associated networks. Continue growing in
international network deployment, as a priority to achieve higher, recurrent revenues. The
strategy is to do so in leading cities, obtaining greater commercial capacity, network
effects and large economies of scale. The presence in leading cities would allow the
greater use of operator’s demand to download their 3G networks, as this need is more
acute in large cities. In certain cases, Gowex will co-invest in cities under the PPP
consortium format, in which Gowex is the promoter thus allowing for greater efficiency and
higher economies of scale.
Leveraging over Gowex’ neutral, multi-lateral MSP platform: The intention is to take
advantage of the positioning obtained, thanks to the higher number of cities, projects and
operators already working within Gowex’ platform, thus reaching higher economies of
scale and network externalities, as well as the expulsion effect of certain competitors.
Attracts larger operators to become members of Gowex’ MSP platform. To date, the
company has mainly obtained small, mid and large operators but always within WI-FI. The
majority of Gowex’s current attraction is in allowing the adhesion of large operators
(domestic and international) to integrate their 3G networks with Gowex’ WI-FI cities.
Final user: increase the appeal of Gowex’ services in developing activity with final users
and the Freemium model. Gowex has developed a software solution, including a business
model, that is installed in client’s terminals allowing the transparent use of all networks,
including Wi-Fi Cities and networks associated to Gowex’ technological platforms.
Co-investment to accelerate growth
Since 2009, Gowex has played important roles in promoting Public/Private Consortiums to
create Wi-Fi cities, participating in the promotion, design and creation of projects and
training consortiums; later via a stake (direct or indirect) in executing the implementation
and laying out the infrastructure, and finally manage, exploit and operate the project.
During Gowex’ listing in 1Q’10, one of the points underscored in our investment case was the
low investment requirements. However, in some cases, Gowex believes it essential to carry
out the mentioned functions and participate as co-investor in the consortium. This
decision implies:
Acquiring a controlling stake in the consortium or, on occasions, a minority stake (via
minority reinforcement agreements)
Allows the development of big projects, greater surface and longer exploitation period.
Increase its competitive advantage vs. other players.
On the other hand, the co-investment demands a greater investment effort for Gowex –
reflected in our estimates.
Developing this co-investment policy in 2010 and 2011 allowed the company to surpass
targets regarding Wi-Fi cities and economic results. In our view, capturing new cities,
concessions etc will continue accelerating the capturing of sufficient critical mass to
convert Gowex’ Roaming Platform in one of the reference solutions in the market.
The investment and co-investment plan is mainly focused on leading cities or entities
dependant on the former (municipal transport etc). The business case on these co-
investments greatly depends on the consortium model proposed, but in the majority of the
cases implies Gowex investing between 10 – 25% of the total investment and includes hiring
Gowex as the main contractor or implementer of its technology (as the base platform
making up the Wi-Fi City).
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12. Gowex
Gowex. Co-investment Formulae. Gowex. Example of Co-investment
Source: Gowex Source: Gowex
Inorganic growth
Gowex carried out two capital increases in 2010 (listing to MAB) and in 2011 (June), capturing
EUR6.0m and EUR6.9m respectively, earmarked to finance growth (organic and inorganic).
Currently, the company holds a net cash position of EUR22m.
The company stated its interest in accelerating its national and international expansion via
acquisitions, such as engineering companies with demonstrated experience in wireless
networks, know-how, and a reasonable client portfolio (cities, operators). Gowex continues
seeking opportunities in this field, with an estimated size below EUR5m per operation, ruling
out various operations in the past (to date there is only one candidate). Despite the lack of
track record, the potential size of acquisitions limits the reinvestment risk. We do not
include any potential operation in our estimates or valuation.
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13. Gowex
Estimates adjusted
We revise our estimates for 2012 onwards up following the good 2011 results and the
commercial advances announced – reinforcing the pipeline and visibility for upcoming
years. For 2012-13e our estimates increase 50% in revenues and 62% in EBITDA.
CAGR 2011-13e 32% in revenues, 34% in EBITDA and 44% in Net Profit, with
Wireless, international and recurrent revenues progressively increasing their weight in total
group revenues.
Our estimates are below Gowex’ 2012 guidance (20% in revenues and 19% in
EBITDA). Despite this, for 2012 we estimate 42% growth in revenues and 43% in
EBITDA, up to EUR23.7m.
Gowex will release 1H’12 results in September, during which we believe the company
may update its 2012 guidance (disclosed in mid-2011).
Gowex. Estimates adjustment Guía Gowex. 2011 vs. reported & 2012e vs. Bankia Bolsa
2011a 2012e 2013e CAGR 11-13e 2011 2011 Diff.% 2012e 2012e Diff.%
Old 55.8 66.1 74.6 16% (GOW) (pub) (GOW) BKIA B.
Sales New 66.7 94.5 117.0 32% Revenues 66.5 66.7 0.3% 118.7 94.5 -20%
Dif.% 19.5% 42.9% 56.8% G.Wireless 43.8 46.9 7.1% 106.5 73.0 -31%
Old 12.0 15.3 17.4 20% G.Telecom 22.7 20.2 -11.3% 12.2 21.5 76%
EBITDA New 16.5 23.7 29.5 34% Gross margin 25.8 29.8 15.5% 56.0 43.2 -23%
Dif.% 37.6% 54.7% 69.4% G.Wireless 21.2 23.9 12.6% 51.1 37.2 -27%
Old 7.4 9.2 10.3 18% G.Telecom 4.5 5.8 27.6% 4.9 6.0 23%
Net Profit New 7.2 12.8 14.9 44% Operating expenses 13.4 13.2 -0.9% 26.6 19.6 -26%
Dif.% -2.4% 38.7% 44.9% EBITDA 12.4 16.5 33.1% 29.4 23.7 -19%
Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates, Factset Source: Gowex (DAR 2011), ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates
Financial strength. EUR22m net cash.
Gowex presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of EUR22m at
Dec’11, strengthened by both the cash generation and EUR6.9m capital increase in
mid-2011. Gowex has a low leveraged financial structure, with equity representing
around 60% of the balance (at December 2011).
CAPEX: we estimate more intense CAPEX in 2012-14e, due to the co-investment policy
during said period. We revise our CAPEX forecasts up to EUR16.1m in 2012e (17% over
sales) and EUR17.5m in 2013e (15% over sales). Despite this rise we do not expect a
substantial erosion in cash levels (estimating EUR18m net cash in 2012-13e, not including
possible acquisitions).
Shareholders’ remuneration policy: in 2011 Gowex distributed EUR1.0m in dividends
against 2010 (19% pay out) and in 2012 another EUR1.0m (EUR0.077/share, 14% EPS
2011). For upcoming years we estimate 15% DPS (reinvesting the rest of the cash).
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14. Gowex
Gowex. ND/EBITDA Gowex. Breakdown of aggregate 5 yrs Free Cash Flow
40
0.00 0.00 30
-0.10 08 09 10 11 12e 13e -0.20
-0.20 -0.40 20
-0.60 30.2
27.5
-0.30
10
-0.80 16.2 14.0 14.7 16.9
-0.40 8.6
-1.00
0 2.0
-0.50 -1.20
-0.60 -1.40 -10 -20.4
-0.70 -1.60
-20
Gearing Debt/EBITDA (rhs)
-30
Net profit Non cash Cash Flow Change in Capex Operating Dividends Capital Free cash
items Net Working free cash flow increase flow
Capital
Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa
Valuation EUR10.7/share
The positive adjustment in estimates together with the better valuation hypothesis triggers a
+57% rise in our fair value on Gowex, up to EUR10.7/share (vs. previous EUR6.8/sh).
We carried out a DCF valuation for the period 2012-18e, applying prudent hypotheses:
WACC 14.5% (penalized by the share’s low liquidity and the net cash position) a 2.0%
perpetual growth, and EBITDA margin in 2018e of 21% below the 25% estimated for 2012-
14e.
GOWEX DCF VALUATION TO 31-Dec-12
CASH FLOW (EUR m) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Net sales 66.7 94.5 117.0 144.8 176.5 197.9 219.1 216.7
EBIT 9.5 16.8 20.4 24.8 27.4 28.9 32.1 31.4
Normative tax rate 25% 25% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
NOPLAT 7.1 12.6 14.9 17.8 19.7 20.8 23.1 22.6
Depreciations and other provisions -7.0 -6.8 -9.0 -11.4 -13.8 -15.8 -17.7 -15.2
Gross operating cash flow 14.1 19.5 23.9 29.2 33.5 36.6 40.8 37.8
Capital expenditure -10.7 -16.1 -17.5 -18.8 -19.4 -15.8 -15.3 -15.2
Change in net working capital 0.0 -4.1 -2.8 -3.8 -4.6 -2.3 -2.3 -0.4
Cash flow to be discounted 3.5 -0.7 3.6 6.6 9.5 18.4 23.1 22.2
DCF EVALUATION (EUR m) 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e Nominal year
WACC 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5%
Discount Rate factor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.67 0.58 0.51 0.44
Discounted cash flow -0.7 3.1 5.0 6.3 10.7 11.7
Cumulated DCF -0.7 2.4 7.5 13.8 24.5 36.3
WACC & DCF ANALISYS
Free risk rate 4.50% Cumulated DCF 36.3 - Net financial debt (Cash) (11) -22
Company risk factor 2.50 Perpetual growth rate (g) 2.0% - Minorities (estimated value) 0
Market risk premium 4.00% Normalised Annual CF 22 + Associates 0
Cost of Equity (Ke) 14.50% Terminal Value at Nominal Year 178
Cost of debt (gross) 5.5% Disc.Rate of Terminal Value 0.44
Normative tax rate 30.0% NPV Terminal Value 78.8 Equity Market Value (EUR m) 138
Cost of Debt Net (Kd) 3.85% Number of shares (m) 12.93
Target gearing (D/E) % Kd 0% Financial assets (treasury stock) 1.1 Fair Value per share (EUR) 10.7
% Ke 100% Enterprise value (EUR m) 116.2 Price (EUR) 6.01
WACC 14.5% Potential upside (downside) 78%
Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates
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15. Gowex
Our fair value discounts 2012e multiples of 4.9x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E (3.9x and 9.3x
2013e multiples, respectively). Considering the 78% upside potential we have a Buy
recommendation.
At current market price, Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, that in our
opinion does not reflect the company’s potential growth (CAGR 11-13e +32% sales, +34%
EBITDA and 45% net Profit), financial health (net cash represents 28% of the current market
cap) and the positive track-record.
Implicit ratios @ FV 2010 2011 2012e 2013e
Price 3.4 4.8 10.7 10.7
EV / Sales 0.6x 0.6x 1.2x 1.0x
EV / EBITDA 3.1x 2.4x 4.9x 3.9x
EV / EBIT 4.7x 4.2x 6.9x 5.7x
PER 7.5x 8.6x 10.8x 9.3x
Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa
Sensitivity analysis (WACC & g)
Gowex. Sensitivity Analysis
WACC Perpetual growth rate (g)
10.68 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
11.5% 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.0
12.5% 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2
13.5% 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7
14.5% 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5
15.5% 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5
16.5% 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7
17.5% 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0
Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates
Multiples comparison
Although there is no purely, comparable company with Gowex (due to its particular
business model, diversification, etc) within Wireless sector there are two listed companies in
the US (they aggregate operators networks to offer roaming and interconnection services):
- Boingo: >500,000 hotspots world-wide, began trading in May 2011 in the Nasdaq. Boingo
is an international, WI-FI service provider, offering retail clients (final users) and
wholesalers access service to Wi-Fi points. In 2011 the company generated USD95m
revenues and USD28m EBITDA. Boingo’s 2012 guidance points to +19% revenues and
+30% EBITDA.
- iPass. 750,000 hotspots in 120 countries. Offers mobile connectivity services to
companies. In 2011 it generated USD140m revenues (falling 9%) and small loss at
operating level (EBITDA USD-0.2m).
Boingo trades at 6.9x EV/EBITDA’12e vs. Gowex’ 2.5x. At our fair value (EUR10.7/share,
implying 4.9x EV/EBITDA’12e), Gowex’ discount vs. Boingo would be of 30%, which we would
consider justified considering Boingo’s greater liquidity (trades in the Nasdaq).
Company Price Mkt. Cap. EV/EBITDA PER Mg EBITDA CAGR EBITDA DN/EBITDA Performance %
(EUR) (EUR m) 2012e 2013e 2012e 2013e 2012e 2011-13e 2011 1m 6m 12m
Boingo Wireless Inc. 8.73 303 6.9x 5.2x 36.9x 26.5x 33.4% 29.4% -3.3x -2% 37% 37%
iPass Inc. 116 26.2x -5% 59% 64%
Gowex (Bankia) 6.01 78 2.5x 2.0x 6.1x 5.2x 25.1% 33.6% -1.3x 1% 5% 19%
Gowex (Factset) 6.01 78 2.2x 1.6x 6.3x 5.3x 25.1% 50.8% -0.9x 1% 5% 19%
Source: Facset, Bankia Bolsa
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16. Gowex
Comparable transactions
The Wi-Fi sector is a young, atomised sector in which, in our opinion, a consolidation process
must take place to seek critical mass. In recent months some operations have taken place,
granting visibility to the sector’s growth. The most recent has been Arqiva Broadcast
Holding’s acquisition of Spectrum Interactive Ltd, acquiring 100% for GBP23.4m.
Spectrum Interactive is one of the largest, independent Wi-Fi operators in the UK, with
15,500 access points in 2,100 Premium locations (hotels, restaurants, airports, etc). According
to the official release, the agreement will allow Arqiva to accelerate growth in the wholesale
mobile data activity via the acquisition of a scalable platform. Following this acquisition
Arquiva will be one of the largest Wi-Fi access point providers in UK.
Market performance and shareholder structure
Gowex began trading in the alternative market (MAB) on March 12th 2010, via a subscription
offer among institutional investors at EUR3.5/share. Since then the stock has enjoyed a +75%
performance. Apart from trading in the Spanish MAB, it also trades in the French Alternext
since June 2010. The dual listing increases and diversifies its shareholder structure, and
crosses a larger number of trading operations. Gowex’ intention is to jump to the spanish
continuous market and also to one or various renowned international markets.
Gowex’ shareholder structure is made up by Mr. Jenaro Garcia (CEO, 60% via Cash
Devices and Biotelgy VC) and the rest of the management, that jointly hold 70.3% of the
group. The free float is 29.7% (c. half of free float is held by institutional investors).
Gowex. Price performance Gowex. Shareholder structure
Free-float
30%
Jenaro García
60%
Alvasebi
10%
Source. Facset: Source: Gowex & ESN Bankia Bolsa
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17. Gowex
Risk Factors
1) Risk of not attaining sufficient critical mass that would convert the GOWEX Roaming
Platform into one of the reference solution in the market.
2) Technological risks: obsolescence, network security.
3) Risk of new competitors.
4) Risk in relation to the position of the incumbent and large operators.
5) Risk of depending on key people.
6) Risk of acquisitions (although not included in our estimates, there is the risk of
overpaying for potential acquisitions).
7) Risk of reduced market liquidity.
SWOT analysis
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
The backlog of GOWEX Wireless. Relatively small size.
Neutral positioning and technological Reduced liquidity in Alternative markets
innovation capabilities. (MAB, Alternext)
Strong financial position (net cash).
GOWEX Telecom’s positive track record.
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
Development of WiFi cities abroad. The position of the incumbent and large
operators.
Wireless roaming platform as a
reference in the sector. New competitors.
Potential offered by geolocalised Internet Technological obsolescence.
advertising.
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18. Gowex
Annex
Company description and history
Group Gowex operates in the telecommunication sector, holding a unique position as a
neutral infrastructure manager and interconnection service provider for operators,
exploiting telecommunication networks. Gowex defines itself as an agent or neutral player,
with the intention to endow the market with the electronic communications, instruments and
tools necessary to make the best and most efficient use of the latter (internet broad band, data
transmission circuits, use of radio electric spectrum and WI-FI).
Let’s Gowex is the result of the changed corporate name in 2008 from IBER-X (Iber Band
Exchange SA), founded in 1999 as a telecommunications service company for wholesalers.
The main milestones are summed up in the following graph:
Gowex. Milestones
Source: Gowex
The Group’s growth pillars are 1) creation, development and exploitation of
technological platforms; 2) technological and legal consultant; 3) creator of contents, service
and geo-localised advertising platforms and WI-FI points map; 4) exploitation of WI-FI Cities.
Gowex bases its activity on two main business lines:
1) GOWEX Wireless (group’s main growth driver) provides diverse services related to
wireless telecommunications: consultancy, management and exploitation of WI-FI
networks, wireless roaming platform, advertising and electronic geo-localised commerce of
wireless networks.
2) GOWEX Telecom Services (traditional activity, previously Iber-X): managing and
exploitation of a commercial product exchange platform and services for the B2B
telecommunications market and certain accessory services.
Page 18