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Gowex
        Spain/ Telecommunications                                                                                                                  Company update


        Investment Research                                                                                                                                    Reason: Estimates Revision                              20 July 2012

       Buy                                                                                                                             Capturing Wi-Fi growth
       Recommendation unchanged
       Share price: EUR                                                                                             6.01
                                                                                                                                       In our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telecommunications
       closing price as of 19/07/2012
                                                                                                                                       sector, being a winning horse within the wireless broadband growth trend, and
       Target price: EUR                                                                                      10.70
                                                                                                                                       the increasing use of Wi-Fi. Despite the positive market performance (+19% in last
       from Target Price: EUR                                                                                  6.80
                                                                                                                                       12 months), at current market price Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and
       Reuters/Bloomberg                                                                               GOW.MC/GOW SQ
                                                                                                                                       P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44% EPS, net cash of
       Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                 8,380           EUR22m (28% of current market cap), international growth (42% international sales in
       Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)                                                                                 0.04           2011) and positive news flow.
       Price high 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                          6.40
       Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                           4.33              Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in
       Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                0.2%                line with the positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1)
       Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                               -2.1%                compliance with 2011 guidance: EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m
       Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                              19.2%                guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing backlog (cities, transportation
       Market capitalisation (EURm)                                                                                            78          agencies in countries such as China, France, Argentina) and new roaming
       Current N° of shares (m)                                                                                                13          agreements.
       Free float                                                                                                            30%
                                                                                                                                          The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing
       Key financials (EUR)                                                  12/11                12/12e               12/13e
                                                                                                                                           connectivity and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and
       Sales (m)                                                                 67                     94                 117             connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Gowex is a
       EBITDA (m)                                                                17                     24                   29            neutral manager within the Wi-Fi sector, positioning itself in the middle of the
       EBITDA margin                                                       24.8%                  25.1%                25.2%
                                                                                                                                           value chain, offering a neutral and transparent interconnection point, and solutions
       EBIT (m)                                                                  10                     17                   20
       EBIT margin                                                         14.2%                  17.8%                17.5%               to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between a growing number
       Net Profit (adj.)(m)                                                       7                     13                   15            of operators; 3) population need to access high speed mobility data; 4) improving
       ROCE                                                                 44.5%                  49.9%                39.9%              coverage deficit.
       Net debt/(cash) (m)                                                     (22)                   (18)                 (18)
       Net Debt Equity                                                        -0.6                   -0.4                 -0.3            Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m),
       Net Debt/EBITDA                                                         -1.3                   -0.8                 -0.6
                                                                                                                                           +7.6% EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% Net Profit (EUR7.2m). The results came
       Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)                                          (125.8)                (134.9)              (204.2)
       EV/Sales                                                                 0.6                    0.6                  0.5
                                                                                                                                           in above Gowex’ guidance and our estimates (20% in sales, and 37% in EBITDA).
       EV/EBITDA                                                                2.4                    2.5                  2.0
       EV/EBITDA (adj.)                                                         2.4                    2.5                  2.0
                                                                                                                                          The company presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of
       EV/EBIT                                                                  4.2                    3.5                  2.9            EUR22.1m. Despite the more intense CAPEX in 2012-13e (co-investment,
       P/E (adj.)                                                               8.6                    6.1                  5.2            accelerating the capturing of critical mass), we do not expect a substantial erosion
       P/BV                                                                     1.8                    1.6                  1.2            in the company’s financial situation due to the strong cash flow generation.
       OpFCF yield                                                         58.8%                  14.8%                21.7%
       Dividend yield                                                        1.3%                   2.5%                 2.9%             Estimates and valuation: Following 2011 results and the positive commercial
       EPS (adj.)                                                             0.56                   0.99                 1.17
       BVPS                                                                   2.72                   3.70                 4.86
                                                                                                                                           performance, we have adjusted upward our estimates (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e)
       DPS                                                                    0.08                   0.15                 0.17             and our fair value up to EUR10.7/share (+57% DCF valuation: WACC 14.5% and
                                                                                                                                           g=2.0%). Our new FV implies EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x. We
                                                                                                                                           estimate CAGR 2011-13e of 32% in revenues, +34% in EBITDA and +44% in Net
                                                                                                                                           Profit (all organic).
        6.5 dv sdy
         v v dsv




        6.0                                                                                                                               Its US peer, Boingo, trades at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x, well above Gowex’ 2.5x (at
        5.5                                                                                                                                our EUR10.7/share, GOW would trade at a 30% discount vs. Boingo in terms of
        5.0                                                                                                                                EV/EBITDA).
        4.5


        4.0
                                                                                                                                          Buy recommendation, in light of the 78% upside potential to our new fair value. In
        3.5
                                                                                                                                           our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telcos sector, as a winner
              Jul 11     Aug 11   Sep 11   Oct 11   Nov 11   Dec 11   Jan 12    Feb 12   Mar 12   Apr 12   May 12   Jun 12    Jul 12
                                                                                                                                           within the mobile broadband growth trend and increasing use of Wi-Fi.
                                                             GOWEX             MAB (Rebased)
       Source: Factset


       Shareholders: Jenaro García 60%; Alvasebi 10%;

                                                                                                                                       Analyst(s): David Cabeza Jareño       +34 91 4367818     dcabeza@bankia.com

       For company description please see summary table footnote




Produced by:                                                                                                                                                         All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”),
                                                                                                                                                                     Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, TheMarkets.com, FactSet


Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
Gowex




CONTENIDOS
Capturing Wi-Fi growth .............................................................................. 3 
High double digit growth and improving mix. ......................................... 4 
Improving profitability                                                                                         6 

Positive news flow: increasing critical mass                                                                    7 

Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks ................... 8 
Gowex. Positioning and strategy ............................................................ 10 
Organic growth                                                                                                 10 

Co-investment to accelerate growth                                                                             11 

Inorganic growth                                                                                               12 

Estimates adjusted ................................................................................... 13 
Financial strength. EUR22m net cash.                                                                           13 

Valuation EUR10.7/share ......................................................................... 14 
Multiples comparison                                                                                           15 

Comparable transactions                                                                                        16 

Market performance and shareholder structure                                                                   16 

Risk Factors                                                                                                   17 

Annex ......................................................................................................... 18 
Company description and history                                                                                18 

ESN Recommendation System ............................................................... 25 




                                                                                                                      Page 2
Gowex




   Capturing Wi-Fi growth
   Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in line with the
   positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1) compliance with 2011 guidance:
   EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing
   backlog (cities, transport means, especially abroad) and new roaming agreements.
   The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing connectivity
   services and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and connected handsets)
   and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. According to Cisco, mobile data traffic will
   double worldwide in 2012, and traffic will increase another 78% until 2014. In parallel, we
   observe a similar growth in Wi-Fi: the number of Wi-Fi connection points is expected to
   reach 2.7m in 2014, with use growing 200%. Gowex occupies a neutral management
   position within the sector, positioning itself in the middle of the value chain, offering a neutral
   and transparent interconnection point, and solutions to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of
   interconnection between the growing number of operators; 3) population need to access high
   speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage deficit.
   Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m), +7.6%
   EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% net profit (EUR7.2m). The results came in above Gowex’
   guidance and our estimates (20% above sales, EUR56m, and 37% higher in EBITDA,
   EUR12m). Following 2011 results and the positive commercial performance, we have
   adjusted estimates up (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e) and our fair value to EUR10.7/share
   (+57%), discounting EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x.

Gowex. Main figures

                      2010     2011     Var %                                   2010   2011     Var %
 Revenues             49.6     66.7      34%    WiFi cities                      35     52      49%
 Gowex Telecom         23       20      -13%    Transportation agencies          1      15     1400%
 Gowex Wireless       26.7     46.5     74%     Freemium users (m)              340     740     118%
 Gross Margin         18.5     29.8      61%    Pages viewed (m)                1450   4600     217%
 Gowex Telecom         4.3      5.8      35%    Roaming operators                65     95      46%
 Gowex Wireless       14.2     23.9     68%     Revenues Spain                  70%    58%    -12.0 p.p.
 EBITDA                9.4     16.5      76%    Revenues International          30%    42%    12.0 p.p.
 Net Profit            5.1      7.2      41%    Recurrent revenues (Wireless)   55%    63%     8.0 p.p.
Source: Gowex:

   Despite the positive market performance, at current market price Gowex trades at
   EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44%
   EPS, net cash of EUR22m (28% capitalization), international growth (42% international
   sales in 2011) and positive news flow. It’s US peer, Boingo (USD250m market cap), trades
   at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x and P/E 12e 37x, well above Gowex’ current multiples. We
   recommend Buy, considering the 78% upside potential to our fair value (EUR10.7/share).




                                                                                                  Page 3
Gowex




                                  High double digit growth and improving mix.
                                  In 2011, 70% of the revenues (80% of gross margin) were generated in Gowex Wireless
                                  (vs. 54% in 2010), with 52 cities, 15 transport means and 95 operators (vs. 35, 1 and 65
                                  respectively a year earlier). The remaining 30% was generated in Gowex Telecom. 42% of the
                                  revenues were generated abroad (vs. 30% in 2010), reinforcing its presence in Europe,
                                  LatAm and Asia, with integral Wi-Fi city modules (development, commercialisation and
                                  management).

Gowex: Activity Revenues Mix (2011)                                            Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2011)


                                                          Engineering                                                                     International
                                                          & consulting                                                                        42%
                                                              41%




    Network                                                          Media
   (roaming &                                                       platform
   offloading)                                                         6%
       23%                                Gowex                                                               Spain
                                         Telecom                                                              58%
                                           30%


Gowex. Revenues Per Activity (2007-13e)                                        Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2007-13e)

       140                                                                           140.0

       120              Gowex Telecom      Gowex Wireless                            120.0              Spain           International
       100                                                                           100.0
                                                                                                                                                   59.9
         80                                                                            80.0
                                                                         95                                                               45.4
         60                                                  73                        60.0
                                                                                                                                   28.0
         40                                         47                                 40.0                               14.9
                                            27                                                                   4.8
                                   11                                                                                                              57.1
         20                 3                                                          20.0             1.6                               49.1
                   1                                                                            0.0              30.4     34.7     38.7
                  17        21     25       23      20       21          22                    17.0    22.6
          0                                                                             0.0
                 2007      2008   2009     2010    2011     2012e     2013e                    2007    2008     2009     2010      2011   2012e   2013e

Source: Gowex. Estiamtes Bankia Bolsa                                          Source: Gowe. Estimates Bankia Bolsa

                                  Gowex Wireless represented 70% of the revenues in 2011 and 80% of Gowex’ gross
                                  margin, generating EUR47m revenues (vs. EUR3m in 2008). Out of its 3 segments, network
                                  and engineering activities are performing better than expected, whereas media is evolving
                                  below estimates, affected by the economic context in Spain. In 2011, 63% of Gowex Wireless’
                                  revenues were recurrent (vs. 55% in 2010). We distinguish:
                                  1)      The Network activity (32% of Gowex Wireless revenues in 2011) includes recurrent
                                          roaming, offloading, interconnection and access activities. Sales grew +78% in 2011
                                          thanks to the increasing critical mass and the greater use of wireless services
                                          (resulting in increasing roaming, offloading and interconnections for Gowex). Currently
                                          there are over 95 operators using the platform, creating a network with >400,000 access
                                          points (the clients of these operators are potential consumers of Gowex’ roaming
                                          services).



                                                                                                                                                          Page 4
Gowex




                       2)         Engineering, consultancy and maintenance (58% Wireless revenues in 2011). Gowex
                                  offers the following services: a) consultancy: designing the network, non-recurrent
                                  revenues, high margins; b) installation: Gowex controls the process, but outsources the
                                  physical installation to an engineer, non-recurrent revenues and margins in line with the
                                  group’s average; and c) management/maintenance of Wi-Fi networks: software
                                  maintenance, generating recurrent revenues and margins in line with the group’s
                                  average. The better than estimated performance of this unit was owing to the good
                                  performance of international projects, trend that we believe will continue in upcoming
                                  years, bearing in mind the recently announced agreements with cities and transport
                                  companies.
                       3)         Media (9% Wireless revenues in 2011) includes advertising, applications and services.
                                  Despite growing +30% in revenues to EUR4.3m, it is the activity with the worse relative
                                  performance in 2011, affected by the difficult advertising scenario. In our view, the higher
                                  weight of the international activity (opening of new international Wi-Fi cities) and the
                                  heavy weight of geo-localised advertising in the advertising mix should result in growths
                                  in future years (we estimate 2 fold revenues in 2013 vs. 2011).

Gowex Wireless. Recurrent Revenues                                         Gowex Wireless: Network (roaming, offloading, access)

                                                                                50.0                                                         46.1
      50          Recurrent         Non recurrent                               45.0                Network (roaming & offloading)
      45                                                                        40.0
      40                                                                        35.0
                                                            17
      35                                                                                                                             27.2
                                                                                30.0
      30
                                                                                25.0
      25
      20                     12                                                 20.0
                                                                                                                        15.0
      15                                                    29                  15.0
                                                                                                              8.4
      10                                                                        10.0
                             15                                                                     3.7
       5                                                                         5.0      0.7
       0                                                                         0.0
                            2010                           2011                          2008      2009      2010      2011      2012e      2013e


Gowex Wireless. Engineering                                                Gowex Wireless. Media

       45.0                                                                    10.0
                                                           39.5    39.7                                                                      8.7
       40.0                                                                     9.0
                            Engineering & consulting                                                 Media platform
       35.0                                                                     8.0
       30.0                                         27.2                        7.0                                                  6.3
                                                                                6.0
       25.0
                                                                                5.0                                    4.3
       20.0
                                        15.0                                    4.0                          3.3
       15.0
                                                                                3.0
       10.0                   6.4                                               2.0
        5.0     2.5
                                                                                1.0                0.3
                                                                                         0.0
        0.0                                                                     0.0
                2008         2009       2010        2011   2012e   2013e                2008      2009      2010       2011      2012e      2013e
Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa                                      Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa




                                                                                                                                               Page 5
Gowex




                          Gowex Telecom (30% revenues and 20% gross margin) is focused on B2B products and
                          telecommunication services (broadband, data transmission circuits, private virtual networks,
                          etc) via its commercial exchange platform. Telecom revenues proceed from the following:
                              Adhesion fee for new members (interconnection and physical infrastructure) and of
                               membership (monthly), according to volume, lines to be connected, etc.
                              Fees from purchase/sales operations in broad band at transparent and competitive
                               prices, data transmission circuits, voice services.
                              Consultancy, and infrastructure management services (monitorising, management and
                               back-up) and equipment storage.
                          Since 2010, the company is modifying the way in which revenues and costs proceeding from
                          intermediation are accounted (end of the process in 2012). The intention is to adjust the
                          accounting of the affiliate to the scope of intermediation. The impact on results has been lower
                          revenues and costs in 2010 and 2011. The gross margin in absolute terms has not been
                          affected nor the rest of the P&L lines which depend on the gross margin (to be determined by
                          the net result in added value service sales plus fees accrued from intermediation services).
                          Despite the fall in revenues in 2011 (see table), the gross margin increased (+35%, EUR5.8m)
                          thanks to the higher volumes. Including the intermediation activity, growth would have reached
                          +79% (from EUR27.0m to EUR48.3m). For the next few years we estimate a prudent, single
                          digit growth in sales and stable gross margin (28% vs. 29% in 2011).

Gowex Telecom. Sales & Gross Margin (2007-13e)                 Gowex Telecom. Functioning

   30.0                                                  35%
                     Sales           Gross margin (%)
   25.0                                                  30%
                                                         25%
   20.0
                                                         20%
   15.0
                                                         15%
   10.0
                                                         10%
    5.0                                                  5%
    0.0                                                  0%
          2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e

Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa                         Source: Gowex




                          Improving profitability
                          The change in revenues mix, with greater weight of Wireless (wider margins), explains
                          the better margins seen in recent years, from 9.5% EBITDA margin in 2008 to 24.8% in
                          2011. Regarding EBIT margin, in 2011 EUR3.5m were provisions (5% of the sales vs. 3% in
                          2010, we are estimating EUR2.0m for 2012-13e), and an accelerated depreciation of assets
                          was carried out which partially explains the lower rise in percentage points of the EBIT margin.
                          For 2012 we estimate EBITDA mg of 25.1%, to remain stable in 2013-14e and EBIT margin
                          of 17.5% to 18% in said period, with costs growing in line with revenues.




                                                                                                                     Page 6
Gowex




Gowex. Sales & Margins Performance (2008-14e)                     Gowex. Better Pipeline




Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa                            Source: Gowex




                               Positive news flow: increasing critical mass
                               Throughout 2011 and year to date, the news flow and commercial momentum has been
                               positive, reinforcing Gowex’s pipeline. We highlight:
                                 15 public transport companies (EMT Madrid, Buenos Aires’ underground).
                                 France: Bordeaux (Dec’11), Gowex’ first Wi-Fi city in France, Paris (announced in June
                                  2012, 48 transport station).
                                 Argentina: 5 cities, urban transport.
                                 China: Increasing penetration. Agreement with CRSC (second rail engineering company
                                  in China), high speed trains, 1 city in China (Nanjing).
                                 Agreements with iPass, Boingo, Nintendo, AT&T, Skype, Korean Telecom, MASMovil
                                 Gowex formed part of WBA (Wireless Broadband Alliance, 95 operators).
                                 Offices opened in Shanghai, Paris, Buenos Aires, London, US and Arabian Emirates.
                                 Creation of Gowex Mobile, focusing on developing applications based on services for
                                  mobile handsets, making access to geo-localised, discount and downloading easier for WI-
                                  FI network users.




                                                                                                                      Page 7
Gowex




                             Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks
                             The Wi-Fi services market continues growing substantially, at the same time as mobile
                             data traffic, leaning on the increasing connectivity services (high demand of smartphones,
                             tablets, and connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Much of the
                             consumptions in wireless data take place in fixed or nomad areas, where Wi-Fi services can
                             be found at low costs (and frequently for free). As a result, consumers have learned to accept
                             Wi-Fi as a complement to the 3G and 4G data programs. Some relevant figures:
                                         According to the Wireless Broadband Alliance (report 2011), the number of public
                                          Wi-Fi access points around the world will increase from 1.3m in 2011 to 5.8m in
                                          2015 (CAGR 20’11-153 +45%).
                                         According to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI), mobile data traffic will
                                          multiply by 256x between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes/month in 2015. The
                                          global mobile traffic will continue exploding, growing 3x quicker than fixed IP traffic
                                          during the same period.
                             Have telecom operators considered Wi-Fi priority in recent years? In general the answer
                             would be no. Telecom operators have concentrated on developing 3G networks (and
                             designing 4G). Wi-Fi had simply grown in parallel. Some recent changes (included in Cisco’s
                             VNI) are:
                                   1)     Strong growth of terminals with Wi-Fi. ABI Research estimates a prudent rise in
                                          terminals with Wi-Fi (smartphones, tablets, video game consoles) of >300% between
                                          2009-2015, up to over 2bn world-wide.
                                   2)     Half the mobile traffic in networks is Wi-Fi
                                   3)     Substantial growth in Wi-Fi access points
                                   4)     Increasing moves from free access to Wi-Fi hotspots.
                                   5)     Wi-Fi is becoming a viable, mobile data downloading technology.
                                   6)     Wi-Fi is forming part of the more ample, wireless network design.



Projected Global IP Traffic by Access Network.                                 Wi-Fi hotspots world-wide (millions)




Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index. Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015   Source: Alcatel Lucent (2012, report Telecoms&Media)




                                                                                                                                      Page 8
Gowex




                                   Given the fundamental changes in the market, Cisco considers Wi-Fi will be a viable
                                   alternative to the wireless access network. The technology is ready, there is ample
                                   coverage, and clients are using Wi-Fi as an alternative to mobile networks. Additionally,
                                   service providers are finding new ways to monetize investments via the creation of Wi-Fi
                                   networks.

    Location of Mobile Data usage (% of Time Spent in Activity).       Wi-Fi Access by U.S. Smartphone Users (% o/total Browsing)




    Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch                     Source: Cisco IBSG Mobile Cloud Watch, 2011

                                   Based on observations, investigations and experience in the industry and interactions with
                                   service providers, Cisco has made 6 assertions regarding WI-FI’s future and its relation
                                   with traditional mobile telephony networks.
                                   1) Wi-Fi covers the majority of the locations where present.
                                   2) Much of what we do is nomad, not mobile.
                                   3) The new nomad terminals will consume even higher amounts of mobile data.
                                   4) Consumers use Wi-Fi easily as a substitute or complement to mobile
                                   5) Wi-Fi can offer a more profitable solution and better user experience
                                   6) There are various alternatives to develop profitable Wi-Fi models.

Wi-Fi. Business models (I)                                                  Wi-Fi. Business model (II). Source of value and returns




Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011                                                    Source: Cisco IBSG, 2012




                                                                                                                               Page 9
Gowex




                     Gowex. Positioning and strategy
                     The context is therefore favourable for Gowex’ business model. The growth outlook for
                     the mobile data market, the new terminals, new applications and services related to mobility
                     are exceptional. Demand on behalf of users and need to lay out wireless networks is ever
                     increasing, as well as the number of operators (wireless market with higher number of
                     operators vs. mobile telephony). Wi-Fi is amongst the highest growth technologies thanks to the
                     low development cost (a tenth of 3G), the use of frequencies are not subject to licenses (2.4GHz and
                     5GHz) and the high number of terminals integrating WI-FI technology.

                     Gowex occupies a neutral management position within the Wi-Fi sector, offering solutions
                     to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between the growing number of
                     operators; 3) population need to access high speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage
                     deficit. Gowex positions itself in the centre of wireless internet value chain, offering a neutral
                     and transparent interconnection point.
                     Gowex’s growth keys are: 1) positioning of Gowex’ Roaming Platform as a reference
                     solution in the market for various agents (that we believe will be achieved with the increasing
                     number of cities connected); 2) international expansion via agreements with cities; and 3)
                     potential operating leverage (scalable model); 4) capacity to monetise Wi-Fi networks via the
                     advertising WILOC platform and geo-localised contents.

Gowex. Positioning                                     Gowex. Revenues Diversification




Soruce: Gowex                                          Source: Gowex




                     Organic growth
                     Gowex enjoys a leading position and high penetration in exploiting Wi-Fi cities in Spain,
                     while progressively increasing its international presence. The company’s strategy is to
                     repeat the successful business model in other markets and cities in Europe, Asia and Latin
                     America (considering co-investments as an alternative), and continue attracting operators. The
                     circle is virtuous, in which the increasing critical mass and access points increases the
                     company’s appeal, be it to obtain new contracts in cities (developing Wi-Fi cities) and
                     operators (roaming, offloading) apart from geographically diversifying revenues. Specifically
                     speaking we highlight the following strategy lines:




                                                                                                                  Page 10
Gowex




    Continue growing in Wi-Fi cities and associated networks. Continue growing in
     international network deployment, as a priority to achieve higher, recurrent revenues. The
     strategy is to do so in leading cities, obtaining greater commercial capacity, network
     effects and large economies of scale. The presence in leading cities would allow the
     greater use of operator’s demand to download their 3G networks, as this need is more
     acute in large cities. In certain cases, Gowex will co-invest in cities under the PPP
     consortium format, in which Gowex is the promoter thus allowing for greater efficiency and
     higher economies of scale.
    Leveraging over Gowex’ neutral, multi-lateral MSP platform: The intention is to take
     advantage of the positioning obtained, thanks to the higher number of cities, projects and
     operators already working within Gowex’ platform, thus reaching higher economies of
     scale and network externalities, as well as the expulsion effect of certain competitors.
    Attracts larger operators to become members of Gowex’ MSP platform. To date, the
     company has mainly obtained small, mid and large operators but always within WI-FI. The
     majority of Gowex’s current attraction is in allowing the adhesion of large operators
     (domestic and international) to integrate their 3G networks with Gowex’ WI-FI cities.
    Final user: increase the appeal of Gowex’ services in developing activity with final users
     and the Freemium model. Gowex has developed a software solution, including a business
     model, that is installed in client’s terminals allowing the transparent use of all networks,
     including Wi-Fi Cities and networks associated to Gowex’ technological platforms.


Co-investment to accelerate growth
Since 2009, Gowex has played important roles in promoting Public/Private Consortiums to
create Wi-Fi cities, participating in the promotion, design and creation of projects and
training consortiums; later via a stake (direct or indirect) in executing the implementation
and laying out the infrastructure, and finally manage, exploit and operate the project.
During Gowex’ listing in 1Q’10, one of the points underscored in our investment case was the
low investment requirements. However, in some cases, Gowex believes it essential to carry
out the mentioned functions and participate as co-investor in the consortium. This
decision implies:
     Acquiring a controlling stake in the consortium or, on occasions, a minority stake (via
      minority reinforcement agreements)
     Allows the development of big projects, greater surface and longer exploitation period.
     Increase its competitive advantage vs. other players.
     On the other hand, the co-investment demands a greater investment effort for Gowex –
      reflected in our estimates.
Developing this co-investment policy in 2010 and 2011 allowed the company to surpass
targets regarding Wi-Fi cities and economic results. In our view, capturing new cities,
concessions etc will continue accelerating the capturing of sufficient critical mass to
convert Gowex’ Roaming Platform in one of the reference solutions in the market.
The investment and co-investment plan is mainly focused on leading cities or entities
dependant on the former (municipal transport etc). The business case on these co-
investments greatly depends on the consortium model proposed, but in the majority of the
cases implies Gowex investing between 10 – 25% of the total investment and includes hiring
Gowex as the main contractor or implementer of its technology (as the base platform
making up the Wi-Fi City).




                                                                                           Page 11
Gowex




Gowex. Co-investment Formulae.                        Gowex. Example of Co-investment




Source: Gowex                                         Source: Gowex




                 Inorganic growth
                 Gowex carried out two capital increases in 2010 (listing to MAB) and in 2011 (June), capturing
                 EUR6.0m and EUR6.9m respectively, earmarked to finance growth (organic and inorganic).
                 Currently, the company holds a net cash position of EUR22m.
                 The company stated its interest in accelerating its national and international expansion via
                 acquisitions, such as engineering companies with demonstrated experience in wireless
                 networks, know-how, and a reasonable client portfolio (cities, operators). Gowex continues
                 seeking opportunities in this field, with an estimated size below EUR5m per operation, ruling
                 out various operations in the past (to date there is only one candidate). Despite the lack of
                 track record, the potential size of acquisitions limits the reinvestment risk. We do not
                 include any potential operation in our estimates or valuation.




                                                                                                         Page 12
Gowex




                          Estimates adjusted
                               We revise our estimates for 2012 onwards up following the good 2011 results and the
                                commercial advances announced – reinforcing the pipeline and visibility for upcoming
                                years. For 2012-13e our estimates increase 50% in revenues and 62% in EBITDA.
                               CAGR 2011-13e 32% in revenues, 34% in EBITDA and 44% in Net Profit, with
                                Wireless, international and recurrent revenues progressively increasing their weight in total
                                group revenues.
                               Our estimates are below Gowex’ 2012 guidance (20% in revenues and 19% in
                                EBITDA). Despite this, for 2012 we estimate 42% growth in revenues and 43% in
                                EBITDA, up to EUR23.7m.
                               Gowex will release 1H’12 results in September, during which we believe the company
                                may update its 2012 guidance (disclosed in mid-2011).

Gowex. Estimates adjustment                                         Guía Gowex. 2011 vs. reported & 2012e vs. Bankia Bolsa

                     2011a              2012e   2013e CAGR 11-13e                      2011 2011            Diff.%    2012e 2012e    Diff.%
                 Old 55.8                66.1    74.6    16%                          (GOW) (pub)                    (GOW) BKIA B.
     Sales     New 66.7                  94.5    117.0   32%        Revenues           66.5 66.7              0.3%    118.7 94.5     -20%
              Dif.% 19.5%               42.9%   56.8%                G.Wireless        43.8 46.9              7.1%    106.5 73.0     -31%
                 Old 12.0                15.3    17.4    20%         G.Telecom         22.7 20.2            -11.3%     12.2  21.5     76%
    EBITDA     New 16.5                  23.7    29.5    34%        Gross margin       25.8 29.8             15.5%     56.0  43.2    -23%
              Dif.% 37.6%               54.7%   69.4%                G.Wireless        21.2 23.9            12.6%      51.1  37.2    -27%
                 Old  7.4                9.2     10.3    18%         G.Telecom          4.5  5.8             27.6%     4.9    6.0     23%
   Net Profit New     7.2                12.8    14.9    44%        Operating expenses 13.4 13.2             -0.9%     26.6  19.6    -26%
              Dif.% -2.4%               38.7%   44.9%               EBITDA             12.4 16.5             33.1%     29.4  23.7    -19%

Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates, Factset                         Source: Gowex (DAR 2011), ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates




                          Financial strength. EUR22m net cash.
                            Gowex presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of EUR22m at
                             Dec’11, strengthened by both the cash generation and EUR6.9m capital increase in
                             mid-2011. Gowex has a low leveraged financial structure, with equity representing
                             around 60% of the balance (at December 2011).
                            CAPEX: we estimate more intense CAPEX in 2012-14e, due to the co-investment policy
                             during said period. We revise our CAPEX forecasts up to EUR16.1m in 2012e (17% over
                             sales) and EUR17.5m in 2013e (15% over sales). Despite this rise we do not expect a
                             substantial erosion in cash levels (estimating EUR18m net cash in 2012-13e, not including
                             possible acquisitions).
                               Shareholders’ remuneration policy: in 2011 Gowex distributed EUR1.0m in dividends
                                against 2010 (19% pay out) and in 2012 another EUR1.0m (EUR0.077/share, 14% EPS
                                2011). For upcoming years we estimate 15% DPS (reinvesting the rest of the cash).




                                                                                                                                 Page 13
Gowex




Gowex. ND/EBITDA                                                                                     Gowex. Breakdown of aggregate 5 yrs Free Cash Flow
                                                                                                                  40


        0.00                                                                            0.00                      30

       -0.10       08         09             10           11      12e         13e       -0.20
       -0.20                                                                            -0.40                     20

                                                                                        -0.60                                                      30.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   27.5
       -0.30
                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                        -0.80                             16.2          14.0                    14.7                                                   16.9
       -0.40                                                                                                                                                                                8.6
                                                                                        -1.00
                                                                                                                   0                                                                                       2.0
       -0.50                                                                            -1.20
       -0.60                                                                            -1.40                     -10                                                        -20.4
       -0.70                                                                            -1.60
                                                                                                                  -20

                                   Gearing                Debt/EBITDA (rhs)
                                                                                                                  -30

                                                                                                                        Net profit    Non cash   Cash Flow   Change in       Capex        Operating     Dividends      Capital   Free cash
                                                                                                                                       items                 Net Working               free cash flow                 increase     flow
                                                                                                                                                               Capital



Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa                                                            Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa




                                      Valuation EUR10.7/share
                                      The positive adjustment in estimates together with the better valuation hypothesis triggers a
                                      +57% rise in our fair value on Gowex, up to EUR10.7/share (vs. previous EUR6.8/sh).
                                      We carried out a DCF valuation for the period 2012-18e, applying prudent hypotheses:
                                      WACC 14.5% (penalized by the share’s low liquidity and the net cash position) a 2.0%
                                      perpetual growth, and EBITDA margin in 2018e of 21% below the 25% estimated for 2012-
                                      14e.
GOWEX DCF VALUATION TO                                                          31-Dec-12

CASH FLOW (EUR m)                                                2011               2012e            2013e               2014e                       2015e                           2016e                          2017e                    2018e
Net sales                                                        66.7                94.5            117.0               144.8                       176.5                           197.9                          219.1                    216.7
EBIT                                                              9.5                16.8             20.4                24.8                        27.4                            28.9                           32.1                     31.4
Normative tax rate                                               25%                 25%              27%                 28%                         28%                             28%                            28%                      28%
NOPLAT                                                            7.1                12.6             14.9                17.8                        19.7                            20.8                           23.1                     22.6
Depreciations and other provisions                                -7.0               -6.8             -9.0               -11.4                       -13.8                           -15.8                          -17.7                    -15.2
Gross operating cash flow                                        14.1                19.5             23.9                29.2                        33.5                            36.6                           40.8                     37.8
Capital expenditure                                              -10.7              -16.1            -17.5               -18.8                       -19.4                           -15.8                          -15.3                    -15.2
Change in net working capital                                      0.0               -4.1             -2.8                -3.8                        -4.6                            -2.3                           -2.3                     -0.4
Cash flow to be discounted                                        3.5                -0.7              3.6                 6.6                         9.5                            18.4                           23.1                     22.2

DCF EVALUATION (EUR m)                                                              2012e            2013e               2014e                      2015e                        2016e                           2017e               Nominal year
WACC                                                                                14.5%            14.5%               14.5%                      14.5%                        14.5%                           14.5%                 14.5%
Discount Rate factor                                                                 1.00             0.87                0.76                       0.67                         0.58                            0.51                  0.44
Discounted cash flow                                                                 -0.7             3.1                 5.0                         6.3                         10.7                            11.7
Cumulated DCF                                                                        -0.7             2.4                 7.5                        13.8                         24.5                            36.3

WACC & DCF ANALISYS

Free risk rate                                4.50%                           Cumulated DCF                                          36.3                                  - Net financial debt (Cash) (11)                                          -22
Company risk factor                            2.50                           Perpetual growth rate (g)                              2.0%                                  - Minorities (estimated value)                                              0
Market risk premium                           4.00%                           Normalised Annual CF                                     22                                  + Associates                                                                0
Cost of Equity (Ke)                           14.50%                          Terminal Value at Nominal Year                          178
Cost of debt (gross)                           5.5%                           Disc.Rate of Terminal Value                            0.44
Normative tax rate                            30.0%                           NPV Terminal Value                                     78.8                                  Equity Market Value (EUR m)                                             138
Cost of Debt Net (Kd)                         3.85%                                                                                                                        Number of shares (m)                                                  12.93
Target gearing (D/E) % Kd                       0%                            Financial assets (treasury stock)                        1.1                                 Fair Value per share (EUR)                                            10.7
% Ke                                              100%                        Enterprise value (EUR m)                               116.2                                 Price (EUR)                                                               6.01
WACC                                              14.5%                                                                                                                    Potential upside (downside)                                               78%

Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Page 14
Gowex




                   Our fair value discounts 2012e multiples of 4.9x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E (3.9x and 9.3x
                   2013e multiples, respectively). Considering the 78% upside potential we have a Buy
                   recommendation.
                   At current market price, Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, that in our
                   opinion does not reflect the company’s potential growth (CAGR 11-13e +32% sales, +34%
                   EBITDA and 45% net Profit), financial health (net cash represents 28% of the current market
                   cap) and the positive track-record.
                    Implicit ratios @ FV                       2010         2011           2012e      2013e
                    Price                                       3.4          4.8            10.7       10.7
                    EV / Sales                                 0.6x         0.6x            1.2x       1.0x
                    EV / EBITDA                                3.1x         2.4x            4.9x       3.9x
                    EV / EBIT                                  4.7x         4.2x            6.9x       5.7x
                    PER                                        7.5x         8.6x           10.8x       9.3x
                    Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa

                          Sensitivity analysis (WACC & g)
                   Gowex. Sensitivity Analysis
                           WACC                                     Perpetual growth rate (g)
                               10.68    0.5%            1.0%     1.5%         2.0%         2.5%    3.0%       3.5%
                           11.5%        13.0            13.4     13.8         14.3         14.8    15.4       16.0
                           12.5%        11.8            12.1     12.5         12.8         13.2    13.7       14.2
                           13.5%        10.9            11.1     11.4         11.7         12.0    12.3       12.7
                           14.5%        10.0            10.2     10.4         10.7         10.9    11.2       11.5
                           15.5%         9.3             9.5      9.7          9.9         10.1    10.3       10.5
                           16.5%         8.7             8.8      9.0          9.2          9.3     9.5        9.7
                           17.5%         8.2             8.3      8.4          8.5          8.7     8.8        9.0
                   Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates


                   Multiples comparison
                   Although there is no purely, comparable company with Gowex (due to its particular
                   business model, diversification, etc) within Wireless sector there are two listed companies in
                   the US (they aggregate operators networks to offer roaming and interconnection services):
                   -       Boingo: >500,000 hotspots world-wide, began trading in May 2011 in the Nasdaq. Boingo
                           is an international, WI-FI service provider, offering retail clients (final users) and
                           wholesalers access service to Wi-Fi points. In 2011 the company generated USD95m
                           revenues and USD28m EBITDA. Boingo’s 2012 guidance points to +19% revenues and
                           +30% EBITDA.
                   -       iPass. 750,000 hotspots in 120 countries. Offers mobile connectivity services to
                           companies. In 2011 it generated USD140m revenues (falling 9%) and small loss at
                           operating level (EBITDA USD-0.2m).
                   Boingo trades at 6.9x EV/EBITDA’12e vs. Gowex’ 2.5x. At our fair value (EUR10.7/share,
                   implying 4.9x EV/EBITDA’12e), Gowex’ discount vs. Boingo would be of 30%, which we would
                   consider justified considering Boingo’s greater liquidity (trades in the Nasdaq).
Company              Price Mkt. Cap.     EV/EBITDA    PER        Mg EBITDA CAGR EBITDA DN/EBITDA Performance %
                     (EUR) (EUR m)       2012e 2013e 2012e 2013e   2012e     2011-13e     2011    1m 6m 12m
Boingo Wireless Inc. 8.73    303          6.9x 5.2x 36.9x 26.5x    33.4%      29.4%       -3.3x  -2% 37% 37%
iPass Inc.                   116                           26.2x                                 -5% 59% 64%
Gowex (Bankia)        6.01    78          2.5x 2.0x 6.1x 5.2x      25.1%      33.6%       -1.3x   1% 5% 19%
Gowex (Factset)       6.01    78          2.2x 1.6x 6.3x 5.3x      25.1%      50.8%       -0.9x   1% 5% 19%
Source: Facset, Bankia Bolsa


                                                                                                                     Page 15
Gowex




                    Comparable transactions
                    The Wi-Fi sector is a young, atomised sector in which, in our opinion, a consolidation process
                    must take place to seek critical mass. In recent months some operations have taken place,
                    granting visibility to the sector’s growth. The most recent has been Arqiva Broadcast
                    Holding’s acquisition of Spectrum Interactive Ltd, acquiring 100% for GBP23.4m.
                    Spectrum Interactive is one of the largest, independent Wi-Fi operators in the UK, with
                    15,500 access points in 2,100 Premium locations (hotels, restaurants, airports, etc). According
                    to the official release, the agreement will allow Arqiva to accelerate growth in the wholesale
                    mobile data activity via the acquisition of a scalable platform. Following this acquisition
                    Arquiva will be one of the largest Wi-Fi access point providers in UK.




                    Market performance and shareholder structure
                    Gowex began trading in the alternative market (MAB) on March 12th 2010, via a subscription
                    offer among institutional investors at EUR3.5/share. Since then the stock has enjoyed a +75%
                    performance. Apart from trading in the Spanish MAB, it also trades in the French Alternext
                    since June 2010. The dual listing increases and diversifies its shareholder structure, and
                    crosses a larger number of trading operations. Gowex’ intention is to jump to the spanish
                    continuous market and also to one or various renowned international markets.
                    Gowex’ shareholder structure is made up by Mr. Jenaro Garcia (CEO, 60% via Cash
                    Devices and Biotelgy VC) and the rest of the management, that jointly hold 70.3% of the
                    group. The free float is 29.7% (c. half of free float is held by institutional investors).



Gowex. Price performance                               Gowex. Shareholder structure



                                                                     Free-float
                                                                       30%




                                                                                                      Jenaro García
                                                                                                          60%




                                                                    Alvasebi
                                                                     10%




Source. Facset:                                        Source: Gowex & ESN Bankia Bolsa




                                                                                                                 Page 16
Gowex




Risk Factors
1) Risk of not attaining sufficient critical mass that would convert the GOWEX Roaming
   Platform into one of the reference solution in the market.
2) Technological risks: obsolescence, network security.
3) Risk of new competitors.
4) Risk in relation to the position of the incumbent and large operators.
5) Risk of depending on key people.
6) Risk of acquisitions (although not included in our estimates, there is the risk of
   overpaying for potential acquisitions).
7) Risk of reduced market liquidity.


  SWOT analysis
  STRENGTHS                                      WEAKNESSES
   The backlog of GOWEX Wireless.                Relatively small size.
   Neutral positioning and technological         Reduced liquidity in Alternative markets
    innovation capabilities.                       (MAB, Alternext)
   Strong financial position (net cash).
   GOWEX Telecom’s positive track record.


  OPPORTUNITIES                                  THREATS
   Development of WiFi cities abroad.            The position of the incumbent and large
                                                   operators.
   Wireless roaming platform           as   a
    reference in the sector.                      New competitors.
   Potential offered by geolocalised Internet    Technological obsolescence.
    advertising.




                                                                                       Page 17
Gowex




 Annex

 Company description and history
 Group Gowex operates in the telecommunication sector, holding a unique position as a
 neutral infrastructure manager and interconnection service provider for operators,
 exploiting telecommunication networks. Gowex defines itself as an agent or neutral player,
 with the intention to endow the market with the electronic communications, instruments and
 tools necessary to make the best and most efficient use of the latter (internet broad band, data
 transmission circuits, use of radio electric spectrum and WI-FI).
 Let’s Gowex is the result of the changed corporate name in 2008 from IBER-X (Iber Band
 Exchange SA), founded in 1999 as a telecommunications service company for wholesalers.
 The main milestones are summed up in the following graph:

Gowex. Milestones




Source: Gowex




 The Group’s growth pillars are 1) creation, development and exploitation of
 technological platforms; 2) technological and legal consultant; 3) creator of contents, service
 and geo-localised advertising platforms and WI-FI points map; 4) exploitation of WI-FI Cities.
 Gowex bases its activity on two main business lines:
 1) GOWEX Wireless (group’s main growth driver) provides diverse services related to
    wireless telecommunications: consultancy, management and exploitation of WI-FI
    networks, wireless roaming platform, advertising and electronic geo-localised commerce of
    wireless networks.
 2) GOWEX Telecom Services (traditional activity, previously Iber-X): managing and
    exploitation of a commercial product exchange platform and services for the B2B
    telecommunications market and certain accessory services.




                                                                                          Page 18
Gowex




Gowex: Summary tables
PROFIT & LOSS (EURm)                               12/2008    12/2009    12/2010       12/2011    12/2012e    12/2013e
Sales                                                  24.2       35.2       49.6          66.7        94.5         117
Cost of Sales & Operating Costs                       -21.9      -29.7      -40.3         -50.2       -70.8       -87.5
Non Recurrent Expenses/Income                           0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
EBITDA                                                  2.3        5.5        9.4          16.5        23.7        29.5
EBITDA (adj.)*                                          2.3        5.5        9.4          16.5        23.7        29.5
Depreciation                                           -0.8       -1.0       -1.6          -3.4        -4.8        -7.0
EBITA                                                   1.5        4.5        7.8          13.1        18.8        22.4
EBITA (adj)*                                            1.5        4.5        7.8          13.1        18.8        22.4
Amortisations and Write Downs                          -0.3       -0.9       -1.6          -3.6        -2.0        -2.0
EBIT                                                    1.3        3.6        6.3           9.5        16.8        20.4
EBIT (adj.)*                                            1.3        3.6        6.3           9.5        16.8        20.4
Net Financial Interest                                  0.0       -0.1        0.1           0.1         0.2         0.1
Other Financials                                        0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Associates                                              0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Other Non Recurrent Items                               0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)                               1.2        3.5        6.3           9.6        17.0        20.6
Tax                                                    -0.3       -0.6       -1.2          -2.4        -4.3        -5.5
Tax rate                                            21.9%      17.9%      18.7%         25.1%       25.0%       26.8%
Discontinued Operations                                 0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Minorities                                              0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Net Profit (reported)                                   1.0        2.9        5.1           7.2        12.8        15.1
Net Profit (adj.)                                       1.0        2.9        5.1           7.2        12.8        15.1
CASH FLOW (EURm)                                   12/2008    12/2009    12/2010       12/2011    12/2012e    12/2013e
Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC          2.0        4.8        8.2          14.2        19.6        24.1
Change in Net Working Capital                           0.0       -2.1       -8.1          24.9        -4.1        -2.8
Cash Flow from Operations                               2.0        2.7        0.2          39.1        15.5        21.3
Capex                                                  -1.4       -1.6       -5.8         -10.7       -16.1       -17.5
Net Financial Investments                               0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Free Cash Flow                                          0.6        1.1       -5.6          28.5        -0.6         3.7
Dividends                                               0.0        0.0        1.0           1.0         1.9         2.2
Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs)       -1.8       -1.3        3.7           5.1        -2.7         0.0
Change in Net Debt                                     -1.1       -0.2       -0.9          34.5        -1.3         6.0
NOPLAT                                                  0.9        2.5        4.4           6.7        11.8        14.3
BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm)                 12/2008    12/2009    12/2010       12/2011    12/2012e    12/2013e
Net Tangible Assets                                     1.3        1.7        5.8          13.3        22.9        31.9
Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill)                   1.7        1.9        2.0           2.0         3.6         5.2
Net Financial Assets & Other                            0.2        0.2        0.5           0.7         0.7         0.7
Total Fixed Assets                                      3.2        3.8        8.3          16.0        27.2        37.8
Inventories                                             0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Trade receivables                                     19.4       20.7        25.9           9.9         9.4        11.7
Other current assets                                    0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Cash (-)                                               -2.3       -5.8      -15.1         -31.2       -27.6       -27.3
Total Current Assets                                  21.8       26.5        41.1          41.1        37.1        39.0
Total Assets                                          25.0       30.3        49.4          57.1        64.3        76.8
Shareholders Equity                                     9.5      12.5        22.9          35.1        47.9        62.8
Minority                                                0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Total Equity                                            9.5      12.5        22.9          35.1        47.9        62.8
Long term interest bearing debt                         0.8        1.2        3.3           6.2         6.2         6.2
Provisions                                              0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Other long term liabilities                             0.4        0.6        1.4           2.6        -5.1        -8.1
Total Long Term Liabilities                             1.2        1.8        4.7           8.8         1.1        -1.9
Short term interest bearing debt                        0.9        1.9        2.6           2.9         2.9         2.9
Trade payables                                        13.4       14.0        19.2          10.2        12.3        12.9
Other current liabilities                               0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0         0.0         0.0
Total Current Liabilities                             14.3       16.0        21.8          13.2        15.3        15.9
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity            25.0       30.3        49.4          57.1        64.3        76.8
Net Capital Employed                                    9.2      10.4        15.1          15.7        24.3        36.5
Net Working Capital                                     6.0        6.7        6.8          -0.3        -2.9        -1.2
GROWTH & MARGINS                                   12/2008    12/2009    12/2010       12/2011    12/2012e    12/2013e
Sales growth                                        42.6%      45.4%      41.1%         34.4%       41.7%       23.8%
EBITDA (adj.)* growth                              107.3%     139.2%      69.8%         76.3%       43.3%       24.5%
EBITA (adj.)* growth                               255.7%     190.0%      74.2%         67.7%       43.8%       19.1%
EBIT (adj)*growth                                  529.6%     184.0%      74.6%         51.9%       77.2%       21.4%




                                                                                                              Page 19
Gowex


         Gowex: Summary tables
        GROWTH & MARGINS                                                         12/2008           12/2009            12/2010        12/2011         12/2012e          12/2013e
        Net Profit growth                                                          +chg            197.5%              78.4%          40.7%            76.8%             18.1%
        EPS adj. growth                                                            +chg            197.5%              51.8%          25.3%            76.8%             18.1%
        DPS adj. growth                                                                                                 +chg         -11.0%            91.4%             17.0%
        EBITDA (adj)* margin                                                        9.5%             15.7%             18.9%          24.8%            25.1%             25.2%
        EBITA (adj)* margin                                                         6.4%             12.7%             15.7%          19.6%            19.9%             19.2%
        EBIT (adj)* margin                                                          5.2%             10.2%             12.6%          14.2%            17.8%             17.5%

        RATIOS                                                                  12/2008            12/2009            12/2010        12/2011         12/2012e          12/2013e
        Net Debt/Equity                                                             -0.1               -0.2               -0.4           -0.6             -0.4              -0.3
        Net Debt/EBITDA                                                             -0.3               -0.5               -1.0           -1.3             -0.8              -0.6
        Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)                                         nm                68.9                nm             nm               nm                nm
        Capex/D&A                                                               132.1%              83.2%             185.4%         152.0%           235.1%            194.5%
        Capex/Sales                                                                5.7%               4.6%             11.6%          16.0%             17.0%             15.0%
        NWC/Sales                                                                24.9%              19.0%              13.7%           -0.5%            -3.1%             -1.0%
        ROE (average)                                                            12.7%              26.1%              29.0%          24.9%             30.7%             27.2%
        ROCE (adj.)                                                                9.8%             24.4%              30.0%          44.5%             49.9%             39.9%
        WACC                                                                     14.5%              14.5%              14.5%          14.5%             14.5%             14.5%
        ROCE (adj.)/WACC                                                             0.7                1.7                2.1            3.1              3.4               2.8

        PER SHARE DATA (EUR)***                                                 12/2008            12/2009            12/2010        12/2011         12/2012e          12/2013e
        Average diluted number of shares                                            9.8                9.8               11.5           12.9             12.9              12.9
        EPS (reported)                                                             0.10               0.29               0.45           0.56             0.99              1.17
        EPS (adj.)                                                                 0.10               0.29               0.45           0.56             0.99              1.17
        BVPS                                                                       0.97               1.28               1.99           2.72             3.70              4.86
        DPS                                                                        0.00               0.00               0.09           0.08             0.15              0.17

        VALUATION                                                               12/2008            12/2009            12/2010        12/2011         12/2012e          12/2013e
        EV/Sales                                                                                                           0.6            0.6              0.6               0.5
        EV/EBITDA                                                                                                          3.1            2.4              2.5               2.0
        EV/EBITDA (adj.)*                                                                                                  3.1            2.4              2.5               2.0
        EV/EBITA                                                                                                           3.8            3.0              3.1               2.7
        EV/EBITA (adj.)*                                                                                                   3.8            3.0              3.1               2.7
        EV/EBIT                                                                                                            4.7            4.2              3.5               2.9
        EV/EBIT (adj.)*                                                                                                    4.7            4.2              3.5               2.9
        P/E (adj.)                                                                                                         7.5            8.6              6.1               5.2
        P/BV                                                                                                               1.7            1.8              1.6               1.2
        Total Yield Ratio                                                                                               -2.6%          -2.5%            -2.9%             -3.4%
        EV/CE                                                                                                              2.0            2.7              2.5               1.7
        OpFCF yield                                                                                                     -3.3%         58.8%             14.8%             21.7%
        OpFCF/EV                                                                                                        -4.3%         91.3%             19.4%             28.4%
        Payout ratio                                                                0.0%               0.0%            19.5%          13.8%             15.0%             14.9%
        Dividend yield (gross)                                                                                           2.6%           1.3%             2.5%              2.9%

        EV AND MKT CAP (EURm)                                                   12/2008            12/2009            12/2010        12/2011         12/2012e          12/2013e
        Price** (EUR)                                                                                                    3.35           4.79             6.01              6.01
        Outstanding number of shares for main stock                                    9.8               9.8             11.5           12.9             12.9              12.9
        Total Market Cap                                                                                                   39              62               78                78
        Net Debt                                                                         -1                -3               -9            -22              -18               -18
        o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-)                                            -2                -6              -15            -31              -28               -27
        o/w Gross Debt (+)                                                               2                 3                6               9                9                 9
        Other EV components                                                               0                 0                0              0                0                 0
        Enterprise Value (EV adj.)                                                                                         29              40               59                60
        Source: Company, Bankia Bolsa estimates.

        Notes
        * Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation
       **Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Sector: Telecommunications/Telecommunications
Company Description: Gowex operates within the telecommunication sector, occupying a unique position as a neutral infrastructure
manager and interconnection services company for operators. Gowex was founded in 1999 and currently focuses on 2 main activities:
1) Gowex Wireless (main growth driver): services related to wireless telecommunications: management and operation of WiFi networks,
wireless roaming platform 2) Gowex Telecom (traditional activity): bandwith trading and B2B telecoms market services.




                                                                                                                                                                   Page 20
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth
Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth

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Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi Growth

  • 1. Gowex Spain/ Telecommunications Company update Investment Research Reason: Estimates Revision 20 July 2012 Buy Capturing Wi-Fi growth Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 6.01 In our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telecommunications closing price as of 19/07/2012 sector, being a winning horse within the wireless broadband growth trend, and Target price: EUR 10.70 the increasing use of Wi-Fi. Despite the positive market performance (+19% in last from Target Price: EUR 6.80 12 months), at current market price Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and Reuters/Bloomberg GOW.MC/GOW SQ P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44% EPS, net cash of Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 8,380 EUR22m (28% of current market cap), international growth (42% international sales in Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 0.04 2011) and positive news flow. Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.40 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.33  Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.2% line with the positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1) Abs. perf. 3 mth -2.1% compliance with 2011 guidance: EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m Abs. perf. 12 mth 19.2% guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing backlog (cities, transportation Market capitalisation (EURm) 78 agencies in countries such as China, France, Argentina) and new roaming Current N° of shares (m) 13 agreements. Free float 30%  The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing Key financials (EUR) 12/11 12/12e 12/13e connectivity and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and Sales (m) 67 94 117 connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Gowex is a EBITDA (m) 17 24 29 neutral manager within the Wi-Fi sector, positioning itself in the middle of the EBITDA margin 24.8% 25.1% 25.2% value chain, offering a neutral and transparent interconnection point, and solutions EBIT (m) 10 17 20 EBIT margin 14.2% 17.8% 17.5% to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between a growing number Net Profit (adj.)(m) 7 13 15 of operators; 3) population need to access high speed mobility data; 4) improving ROCE 44.5% 49.9% 39.9% coverage deficit. Net debt/(cash) (m) (22) (18) (18) Net Debt Equity -0.6 -0.4 -0.3  Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m), Net Debt/EBITDA -1.3 -0.8 -0.6 +7.6% EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% Net Profit (EUR7.2m). The results came Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) (125.8) (134.9) (204.2) EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.5 in above Gowex’ guidance and our estimates (20% in sales, and 37% in EBITDA). EV/EBITDA 2.4 2.5 2.0 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 2.4 2.5 2.0  The company presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of EV/EBIT 4.2 3.5 2.9 EUR22.1m. Despite the more intense CAPEX in 2012-13e (co-investment, P/E (adj.) 8.6 6.1 5.2 accelerating the capturing of critical mass), we do not expect a substantial erosion P/BV 1.8 1.6 1.2 in the company’s financial situation due to the strong cash flow generation. OpFCF yield 58.8% 14.8% 21.7% Dividend yield 1.3% 2.5% 2.9%  Estimates and valuation: Following 2011 results and the positive commercial EPS (adj.) 0.56 0.99 1.17 BVPS 2.72 3.70 4.86 performance, we have adjusted upward our estimates (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e) DPS 0.08 0.15 0.17 and our fair value up to EUR10.7/share (+57% DCF valuation: WACC 14.5% and g=2.0%). Our new FV implies EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x. We estimate CAGR 2011-13e of 32% in revenues, +34% in EBITDA and +44% in Net Profit (all organic). 6.5 dv sdy v v dsv 6.0  Its US peer, Boingo, trades at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x, well above Gowex’ 2.5x (at 5.5 our EUR10.7/share, GOW would trade at a 30% discount vs. Boingo in terms of 5.0 EV/EBITDA). 4.5 4.0  Buy recommendation, in light of the 78% upside potential to our new fair value. In 3.5 our opinion, Gowex is an interesting alternative within the telcos sector, as a winner Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 within the mobile broadband growth trend and increasing use of Wi-Fi. GOWEX MAB (Rebased) Source: Factset Shareholders: Jenaro García 60%; Alvasebi 10%; Analyst(s): David Cabeza Jareño +34 91 4367818 dcabeza@bankia.com For company description please see summary table footnote Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, TheMarkets.com, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)
  • 2. Gowex CONTENIDOS Capturing Wi-Fi growth .............................................................................. 3  High double digit growth and improving mix. ......................................... 4  Improving profitability 6  Positive news flow: increasing critical mass 7  Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks ................... 8  Gowex. Positioning and strategy ............................................................ 10  Organic growth 10  Co-investment to accelerate growth 11  Inorganic growth 12  Estimates adjusted ................................................................................... 13  Financial strength. EUR22m net cash. 13  Valuation EUR10.7/share ......................................................................... 14  Multiples comparison 15  Comparable transactions 16  Market performance and shareholder structure 16  Risk Factors 17  Annex ......................................................................................................... 18  Company description and history 18  ESN Recommendation System ............................................................... 25  Page 2
  • 3. Gowex Capturing Wi-Fi growth Gowex accumulates +19% during the last 12 months (vs. Ibex 35’s -31%), in line with the positive operating performance, in which we highlight: 1) compliance with 2011 guidance: EBITDA +76% EUR16.5m (vs. EUR12.4m guidance); 2) positive news flow, increasing backlog (cities, transport means, especially abroad) and new roaming agreements. The scenario is still favourable for growth in Wi-Fi, leaning on the increasing connectivity services and mobile services (high demand of smartphones, tablets and connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. According to Cisco, mobile data traffic will double worldwide in 2012, and traffic will increase another 78% until 2014. In parallel, we observe a similar growth in Wi-Fi: the number of Wi-Fi connection points is expected to reach 2.7m in 2014, with use growing 200%. Gowex occupies a neutral management position within the sector, positioning itself in the middle of the value chain, offering a neutral and transparent interconnection point, and solutions to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between the growing number of operators; 3) population need to access high speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage deficit. Gowex presented good 2011 results, with sales growing +34% (EUR66.7m), +7.6% EBITDA (EUR16.5m) and +41% net profit (EUR7.2m). The results came in above Gowex’ guidance and our estimates (20% above sales, EUR56m, and 37% higher in EBITDA, EUR12m). Following 2011 results and the positive commercial performance, we have adjusted estimates up (+62% in EBITDA 2012-13e) and our fair value to EUR10.7/share (+57%), discounting EV/EBITDA’12e 4.9x and P/E’12e 10.8x. Gowex. Main figures 2010 2011 Var % 2010 2011 Var % Revenues 49.6 66.7 34% WiFi cities 35 52 49% Gowex Telecom 23 20 -13% Transportation agencies 1 15 1400% Gowex Wireless 26.7 46.5 74% Freemium users (m) 340 740 118% Gross Margin 18.5 29.8 61% Pages viewed (m) 1450 4600 217% Gowex Telecom 4.3 5.8 35% Roaming operators 65 95 46% Gowex Wireless 14.2 23.9 68% Revenues Spain 70% 58% -12.0 p.p. EBITDA 9.4 16.5 76% Revenues International 30% 42% 12.0 p.p. Net Profit 5.1 7.2 41% Recurrent revenues (Wireless) 55% 63% 8.0 p.p. Source: Gowex: Despite the positive market performance, at current market price Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA’12e of 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, with CAGR 2011-13e 34% in EBITDA and 44% EPS, net cash of EUR22m (28% capitalization), international growth (42% international sales in 2011) and positive news flow. It’s US peer, Boingo (USD250m market cap), trades at EV/EBITDA’12e 6.9x and P/E 12e 37x, well above Gowex’ current multiples. We recommend Buy, considering the 78% upside potential to our fair value (EUR10.7/share). Page 3
  • 4. Gowex High double digit growth and improving mix. In 2011, 70% of the revenues (80% of gross margin) were generated in Gowex Wireless (vs. 54% in 2010), with 52 cities, 15 transport means and 95 operators (vs. 35, 1 and 65 respectively a year earlier). The remaining 30% was generated in Gowex Telecom. 42% of the revenues were generated abroad (vs. 30% in 2010), reinforcing its presence in Europe, LatAm and Asia, with integral Wi-Fi city modules (development, commercialisation and management). Gowex: Activity Revenues Mix (2011) Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2011) Engineering International & consulting 42% 41% Network Media (roaming & platform offloading) 6% 23% Gowex Spain Telecom 58% 30% Gowex. Revenues Per Activity (2007-13e) Gowex. Geographic Revenues Mix (2007-13e) 140 140.0 120 Gowex Telecom Gowex Wireless 120.0 Spain International 100 100.0 59.9 80 80.0 95 45.4 60 73 60.0 28.0 40 47 40.0 14.9 27 4.8 11 57.1 20 3 20.0 1.6 49.1 1 0.0 30.4 34.7 38.7 17 21 25 23 20 21 22 17.0 22.6 0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e Source: Gowex. Estiamtes Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowe. Estimates Bankia Bolsa Gowex Wireless represented 70% of the revenues in 2011 and 80% of Gowex’ gross margin, generating EUR47m revenues (vs. EUR3m in 2008). Out of its 3 segments, network and engineering activities are performing better than expected, whereas media is evolving below estimates, affected by the economic context in Spain. In 2011, 63% of Gowex Wireless’ revenues were recurrent (vs. 55% in 2010). We distinguish: 1) The Network activity (32% of Gowex Wireless revenues in 2011) includes recurrent roaming, offloading, interconnection and access activities. Sales grew +78% in 2011 thanks to the increasing critical mass and the greater use of wireless services (resulting in increasing roaming, offloading and interconnections for Gowex). Currently there are over 95 operators using the platform, creating a network with >400,000 access points (the clients of these operators are potential consumers of Gowex’ roaming services). Page 4
  • 5. Gowex 2) Engineering, consultancy and maintenance (58% Wireless revenues in 2011). Gowex offers the following services: a) consultancy: designing the network, non-recurrent revenues, high margins; b) installation: Gowex controls the process, but outsources the physical installation to an engineer, non-recurrent revenues and margins in line with the group’s average; and c) management/maintenance of Wi-Fi networks: software maintenance, generating recurrent revenues and margins in line with the group’s average. The better than estimated performance of this unit was owing to the good performance of international projects, trend that we believe will continue in upcoming years, bearing in mind the recently announced agreements with cities and transport companies. 3) Media (9% Wireless revenues in 2011) includes advertising, applications and services. Despite growing +30% in revenues to EUR4.3m, it is the activity with the worse relative performance in 2011, affected by the difficult advertising scenario. In our view, the higher weight of the international activity (opening of new international Wi-Fi cities) and the heavy weight of geo-localised advertising in the advertising mix should result in growths in future years (we estimate 2 fold revenues in 2013 vs. 2011). Gowex Wireless. Recurrent Revenues Gowex Wireless: Network (roaming, offloading, access) 50.0 46.1 50 Recurrent Non recurrent 45.0 Network (roaming & offloading) 45 40.0 40 35.0 17 35 27.2 30.0 30 25.0 25 20 12 20.0 15.0 15 29 15.0 8.4 10 10.0 15 3.7 5 5.0 0.7 0 0.0 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e Gowex Wireless. Engineering Gowex Wireless. Media 45.0 10.0 39.5 39.7 8.7 40.0 9.0 Engineering & consulting Media platform 35.0 8.0 30.0 27.2 7.0 6.3 6.0 25.0 5.0 4.3 20.0 15.0 4.0 3.3 15.0 3.0 10.0 6.4 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex. Estimates Bankia Bolsa Page 5
  • 6. Gowex Gowex Telecom (30% revenues and 20% gross margin) is focused on B2B products and telecommunication services (broadband, data transmission circuits, private virtual networks, etc) via its commercial exchange platform. Telecom revenues proceed from the following:  Adhesion fee for new members (interconnection and physical infrastructure) and of membership (monthly), according to volume, lines to be connected, etc.  Fees from purchase/sales operations in broad band at transparent and competitive prices, data transmission circuits, voice services.  Consultancy, and infrastructure management services (monitorising, management and back-up) and equipment storage. Since 2010, the company is modifying the way in which revenues and costs proceeding from intermediation are accounted (end of the process in 2012). The intention is to adjust the accounting of the affiliate to the scope of intermediation. The impact on results has been lower revenues and costs in 2010 and 2011. The gross margin in absolute terms has not been affected nor the rest of the P&L lines which depend on the gross margin (to be determined by the net result in added value service sales plus fees accrued from intermediation services). Despite the fall in revenues in 2011 (see table), the gross margin increased (+35%, EUR5.8m) thanks to the higher volumes. Including the intermediation activity, growth would have reached +79% (from EUR27.0m to EUR48.3m). For the next few years we estimate a prudent, single digit growth in sales and stable gross margin (28% vs. 29% in 2011). Gowex Telecom. Sales & Gross Margin (2007-13e) Gowex Telecom. Functioning 30.0 35% Sales Gross margin (%) 25.0 30% 25% 20.0 20% 15.0 15% 10.0 10% 5.0 5% 0.0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex Improving profitability The change in revenues mix, with greater weight of Wireless (wider margins), explains the better margins seen in recent years, from 9.5% EBITDA margin in 2008 to 24.8% in 2011. Regarding EBIT margin, in 2011 EUR3.5m were provisions (5% of the sales vs. 3% in 2010, we are estimating EUR2.0m for 2012-13e), and an accelerated depreciation of assets was carried out which partially explains the lower rise in percentage points of the EBIT margin. For 2012 we estimate EBITDA mg of 25.1%, to remain stable in 2013-14e and EBIT margin of 17.5% to 18% in said period, with costs growing in line with revenues. Page 6
  • 7. Gowex Gowex. Sales & Margins Performance (2008-14e) Gowex. Better Pipeline Source: Gowex. Estimates: Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex Positive news flow: increasing critical mass Throughout 2011 and year to date, the news flow and commercial momentum has been positive, reinforcing Gowex’s pipeline. We highlight:  15 public transport companies (EMT Madrid, Buenos Aires’ underground).  France: Bordeaux (Dec’11), Gowex’ first Wi-Fi city in France, Paris (announced in June 2012, 48 transport station).  Argentina: 5 cities, urban transport.  China: Increasing penetration. Agreement with CRSC (second rail engineering company in China), high speed trains, 1 city in China (Nanjing).  Agreements with iPass, Boingo, Nintendo, AT&T, Skype, Korean Telecom, MASMovil  Gowex formed part of WBA (Wireless Broadband Alliance, 95 operators).  Offices opened in Shanghai, Paris, Buenos Aires, London, US and Arabian Emirates.  Creation of Gowex Mobile, focusing on developing applications based on services for mobile handsets, making access to geo-localised, discount and downloading easier for WI- FI network users. Page 7
  • 8. Gowex Sector scenario: Wi-Fi, complementing wireless networks The Wi-Fi services market continues growing substantially, at the same time as mobile data traffic, leaning on the increasing connectivity services (high demand of smartphones, tablets, and connected handsets) and the saturation of 3G-4G mobile networks. Much of the consumptions in wireless data take place in fixed or nomad areas, where Wi-Fi services can be found at low costs (and frequently for free). As a result, consumers have learned to accept Wi-Fi as a complement to the 3G and 4G data programs. Some relevant figures:  According to the Wireless Broadband Alliance (report 2011), the number of public Wi-Fi access points around the world will increase from 1.3m in 2011 to 5.8m in 2015 (CAGR 20’11-153 +45%).  According to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI), mobile data traffic will multiply by 256x between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes/month in 2015. The global mobile traffic will continue exploding, growing 3x quicker than fixed IP traffic during the same period. Have telecom operators considered Wi-Fi priority in recent years? In general the answer would be no. Telecom operators have concentrated on developing 3G networks (and designing 4G). Wi-Fi had simply grown in parallel. Some recent changes (included in Cisco’s VNI) are: 1) Strong growth of terminals with Wi-Fi. ABI Research estimates a prudent rise in terminals with Wi-Fi (smartphones, tablets, video game consoles) of >300% between 2009-2015, up to over 2bn world-wide. 2) Half the mobile traffic in networks is Wi-Fi 3) Substantial growth in Wi-Fi access points 4) Increasing moves from free access to Wi-Fi hotspots. 5) Wi-Fi is becoming a viable, mobile data downloading technology. 6) Wi-Fi is forming part of the more ample, wireless network design. Projected Global IP Traffic by Access Network. Wi-Fi hotspots world-wide (millions) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index. Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015 Source: Alcatel Lucent (2012, report Telecoms&Media) Page 8
  • 9. Gowex Given the fundamental changes in the market, Cisco considers Wi-Fi will be a viable alternative to the wireless access network. The technology is ready, there is ample coverage, and clients are using Wi-Fi as an alternative to mobile networks. Additionally, service providers are finding new ways to monetize investments via the creation of Wi-Fi networks. Location of Mobile Data usage (% of Time Spent in Activity). Wi-Fi Access by U.S. Smartphone Users (% o/total Browsing) Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch Source: Cisco IBSG Mobile Cloud Watch, 2011 Based on observations, investigations and experience in the industry and interactions with service providers, Cisco has made 6 assertions regarding WI-FI’s future and its relation with traditional mobile telephony networks. 1) Wi-Fi covers the majority of the locations where present. 2) Much of what we do is nomad, not mobile. 3) The new nomad terminals will consume even higher amounts of mobile data. 4) Consumers use Wi-Fi easily as a substitute or complement to mobile 5) Wi-Fi can offer a more profitable solution and better user experience 6) There are various alternatives to develop profitable Wi-Fi models. Wi-Fi. Business models (I) Wi-Fi. Business model (II). Source of value and returns Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011 Source: Cisco IBSG, 2012 Page 9
  • 10. Gowex Gowex. Positioning and strategy The context is therefore favourable for Gowex’ business model. The growth outlook for the mobile data market, the new terminals, new applications and services related to mobility are exceptional. Demand on behalf of users and need to lay out wireless networks is ever increasing, as well as the number of operators (wireless market with higher number of operators vs. mobile telephony). Wi-Fi is amongst the highest growth technologies thanks to the low development cost (a tenth of 3G), the use of frequencies are not subject to licenses (2.4GHz and 5GHz) and the high number of terminals integrating WI-FI technology. Gowex occupies a neutral management position within the Wi-Fi sector, offering solutions to: 1) lack of standardization; 2) lack of interconnection between the growing number of operators; 3) population need to access high speed data mobility; 4) improving coverage deficit. Gowex positions itself in the centre of wireless internet value chain, offering a neutral and transparent interconnection point. Gowex’s growth keys are: 1) positioning of Gowex’ Roaming Platform as a reference solution in the market for various agents (that we believe will be achieved with the increasing number of cities connected); 2) international expansion via agreements with cities; and 3) potential operating leverage (scalable model); 4) capacity to monetise Wi-Fi networks via the advertising WILOC platform and geo-localised contents. Gowex. Positioning Gowex. Revenues Diversification Soruce: Gowex Source: Gowex Organic growth Gowex enjoys a leading position and high penetration in exploiting Wi-Fi cities in Spain, while progressively increasing its international presence. The company’s strategy is to repeat the successful business model in other markets and cities in Europe, Asia and Latin America (considering co-investments as an alternative), and continue attracting operators. The circle is virtuous, in which the increasing critical mass and access points increases the company’s appeal, be it to obtain new contracts in cities (developing Wi-Fi cities) and operators (roaming, offloading) apart from geographically diversifying revenues. Specifically speaking we highlight the following strategy lines: Page 10
  • 11. Gowex  Continue growing in Wi-Fi cities and associated networks. Continue growing in international network deployment, as a priority to achieve higher, recurrent revenues. The strategy is to do so in leading cities, obtaining greater commercial capacity, network effects and large economies of scale. The presence in leading cities would allow the greater use of operator’s demand to download their 3G networks, as this need is more acute in large cities. In certain cases, Gowex will co-invest in cities under the PPP consortium format, in which Gowex is the promoter thus allowing for greater efficiency and higher economies of scale.  Leveraging over Gowex’ neutral, multi-lateral MSP platform: The intention is to take advantage of the positioning obtained, thanks to the higher number of cities, projects and operators already working within Gowex’ platform, thus reaching higher economies of scale and network externalities, as well as the expulsion effect of certain competitors.  Attracts larger operators to become members of Gowex’ MSP platform. To date, the company has mainly obtained small, mid and large operators but always within WI-FI. The majority of Gowex’s current attraction is in allowing the adhesion of large operators (domestic and international) to integrate their 3G networks with Gowex’ WI-FI cities.  Final user: increase the appeal of Gowex’ services in developing activity with final users and the Freemium model. Gowex has developed a software solution, including a business model, that is installed in client’s terminals allowing the transparent use of all networks, including Wi-Fi Cities and networks associated to Gowex’ technological platforms. Co-investment to accelerate growth Since 2009, Gowex has played important roles in promoting Public/Private Consortiums to create Wi-Fi cities, participating in the promotion, design and creation of projects and training consortiums; later via a stake (direct or indirect) in executing the implementation and laying out the infrastructure, and finally manage, exploit and operate the project. During Gowex’ listing in 1Q’10, one of the points underscored in our investment case was the low investment requirements. However, in some cases, Gowex believes it essential to carry out the mentioned functions and participate as co-investor in the consortium. This decision implies:  Acquiring a controlling stake in the consortium or, on occasions, a minority stake (via minority reinforcement agreements)  Allows the development of big projects, greater surface and longer exploitation period.  Increase its competitive advantage vs. other players.  On the other hand, the co-investment demands a greater investment effort for Gowex – reflected in our estimates. Developing this co-investment policy in 2010 and 2011 allowed the company to surpass targets regarding Wi-Fi cities and economic results. In our view, capturing new cities, concessions etc will continue accelerating the capturing of sufficient critical mass to convert Gowex’ Roaming Platform in one of the reference solutions in the market. The investment and co-investment plan is mainly focused on leading cities or entities dependant on the former (municipal transport etc). The business case on these co- investments greatly depends on the consortium model proposed, but in the majority of the cases implies Gowex investing between 10 – 25% of the total investment and includes hiring Gowex as the main contractor or implementer of its technology (as the base platform making up the Wi-Fi City). Page 11
  • 12. Gowex Gowex. Co-investment Formulae. Gowex. Example of Co-investment Source: Gowex Source: Gowex Inorganic growth Gowex carried out two capital increases in 2010 (listing to MAB) and in 2011 (June), capturing EUR6.0m and EUR6.9m respectively, earmarked to finance growth (organic and inorganic). Currently, the company holds a net cash position of EUR22m. The company stated its interest in accelerating its national and international expansion via acquisitions, such as engineering companies with demonstrated experience in wireless networks, know-how, and a reasonable client portfolio (cities, operators). Gowex continues seeking opportunities in this field, with an estimated size below EUR5m per operation, ruling out various operations in the past (to date there is only one candidate). Despite the lack of track record, the potential size of acquisitions limits the reinvestment risk. We do not include any potential operation in our estimates or valuation. Page 12
  • 13. Gowex Estimates adjusted  We revise our estimates for 2012 onwards up following the good 2011 results and the commercial advances announced – reinforcing the pipeline and visibility for upcoming years. For 2012-13e our estimates increase 50% in revenues and 62% in EBITDA.  CAGR 2011-13e 32% in revenues, 34% in EBITDA and 44% in Net Profit, with Wireless, international and recurrent revenues progressively increasing their weight in total group revenues.  Our estimates are below Gowex’ 2012 guidance (20% in revenues and 19% in EBITDA). Despite this, for 2012 we estimate 42% growth in revenues and 43% in EBITDA, up to EUR23.7m.  Gowex will release 1H’12 results in September, during which we believe the company may update its 2012 guidance (disclosed in mid-2011). Gowex. Estimates adjustment Guía Gowex. 2011 vs. reported & 2012e vs. Bankia Bolsa 2011a 2012e 2013e CAGR 11-13e 2011 2011 Diff.% 2012e 2012e Diff.% Old 55.8 66.1 74.6 16% (GOW) (pub) (GOW) BKIA B. Sales New 66.7 94.5 117.0 32% Revenues 66.5 66.7 0.3% 118.7 94.5 -20% Dif.% 19.5% 42.9% 56.8% G.Wireless 43.8 46.9 7.1% 106.5 73.0 -31% Old 12.0 15.3 17.4 20% G.Telecom 22.7 20.2 -11.3% 12.2 21.5 76% EBITDA New 16.5 23.7 29.5 34% Gross margin 25.8 29.8 15.5% 56.0 43.2 -23% Dif.% 37.6% 54.7% 69.4% G.Wireless 21.2 23.9 12.6% 51.1 37.2 -27% Old 7.4 9.2 10.3 18% G.Telecom 4.5 5.8 27.6% 4.9 6.0 23% Net Profit New 7.2 12.8 14.9 44% Operating expenses 13.4 13.2 -0.9% 26.6 19.6 -26% Dif.% -2.4% 38.7% 44.9% EBITDA 12.4 16.5 33.1% 29.4 23.7 -19% Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates, Factset Source: Gowex (DAR 2011), ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates Financial strength. EUR22m net cash.  Gowex presents a healthy financial situation, with a net cash position of EUR22m at Dec’11, strengthened by both the cash generation and EUR6.9m capital increase in mid-2011. Gowex has a low leveraged financial structure, with equity representing around 60% of the balance (at December 2011).  CAPEX: we estimate more intense CAPEX in 2012-14e, due to the co-investment policy during said period. We revise our CAPEX forecasts up to EUR16.1m in 2012e (17% over sales) and EUR17.5m in 2013e (15% over sales). Despite this rise we do not expect a substantial erosion in cash levels (estimating EUR18m net cash in 2012-13e, not including possible acquisitions).  Shareholders’ remuneration policy: in 2011 Gowex distributed EUR1.0m in dividends against 2010 (19% pay out) and in 2012 another EUR1.0m (EUR0.077/share, 14% EPS 2011). For upcoming years we estimate 15% DPS (reinvesting the rest of the cash). Page 13
  • 14. Gowex Gowex. ND/EBITDA Gowex. Breakdown of aggregate 5 yrs Free Cash Flow 40 0.00 0.00 30 -0.10 08 09 10 11 12e 13e -0.20 -0.20 -0.40 20 -0.60 30.2 27.5 -0.30 10 -0.80 16.2 14.0 14.7 16.9 -0.40 8.6 -1.00 0 2.0 -0.50 -1.20 -0.60 -1.40 -10 -20.4 -0.70 -1.60 -20 Gearing Debt/EBITDA (rhs) -30 Net profit Non cash Cash Flow Change in Capex Operating Dividends Capital Free cash items Net Working free cash flow increase flow Capital Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa Source: Gowex. Estimates ESN Bankia Bolsa Valuation EUR10.7/share The positive adjustment in estimates together with the better valuation hypothesis triggers a +57% rise in our fair value on Gowex, up to EUR10.7/share (vs. previous EUR6.8/sh). We carried out a DCF valuation for the period 2012-18e, applying prudent hypotheses: WACC 14.5% (penalized by the share’s low liquidity and the net cash position) a 2.0% perpetual growth, and EBITDA margin in 2018e of 21% below the 25% estimated for 2012- 14e. GOWEX DCF VALUATION TO 31-Dec-12 CASH FLOW (EUR m) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e Net sales 66.7 94.5 117.0 144.8 176.5 197.9 219.1 216.7 EBIT 9.5 16.8 20.4 24.8 27.4 28.9 32.1 31.4 Normative tax rate 25% 25% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% NOPLAT 7.1 12.6 14.9 17.8 19.7 20.8 23.1 22.6 Depreciations and other provisions -7.0 -6.8 -9.0 -11.4 -13.8 -15.8 -17.7 -15.2 Gross operating cash flow 14.1 19.5 23.9 29.2 33.5 36.6 40.8 37.8 Capital expenditure -10.7 -16.1 -17.5 -18.8 -19.4 -15.8 -15.3 -15.2 Change in net working capital 0.0 -4.1 -2.8 -3.8 -4.6 -2.3 -2.3 -0.4 Cash flow to be discounted 3.5 -0.7 3.6 6.6 9.5 18.4 23.1 22.2 DCF EVALUATION (EUR m) 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e Nominal year WACC 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% Discount Rate factor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.67 0.58 0.51 0.44 Discounted cash flow -0.7 3.1 5.0 6.3 10.7 11.7 Cumulated DCF -0.7 2.4 7.5 13.8 24.5 36.3 WACC & DCF ANALISYS Free risk rate 4.50% Cumulated DCF 36.3 - Net financial debt (Cash) (11) -22 Company risk factor 2.50 Perpetual growth rate (g) 2.0% - Minorities (estimated value) 0 Market risk premium 4.00% Normalised Annual CF 22 + Associates 0 Cost of Equity (Ke) 14.50% Terminal Value at Nominal Year 178 Cost of debt (gross) 5.5% Disc.Rate of Terminal Value 0.44 Normative tax rate 30.0% NPV Terminal Value 78.8 Equity Market Value (EUR m) 138 Cost of Debt Net (Kd) 3.85% Number of shares (m) 12.93 Target gearing (D/E) % Kd 0% Financial assets (treasury stock) 1.1 Fair Value per share (EUR) 10.7 % Ke 100% Enterprise value (EUR m) 116.2 Price (EUR) 6.01 WACC 14.5% Potential upside (downside) 78% Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates Page 14
  • 15. Gowex Our fair value discounts 2012e multiples of 4.9x EV/EBITDA and 10.8x P/E (3.9x and 9.3x 2013e multiples, respectively). Considering the 78% upside potential we have a Buy recommendation. At current market price, Gowex trades at EV/EBITDA 2.5x and P/E’12e 6.1x, that in our opinion does not reflect the company’s potential growth (CAGR 11-13e +32% sales, +34% EBITDA and 45% net Profit), financial health (net cash represents 28% of the current market cap) and the positive track-record. Implicit ratios @ FV 2010 2011 2012e 2013e Price 3.4 4.8 10.7 10.7 EV / Sales 0.6x 0.6x 1.2x 1.0x EV / EBITDA 3.1x 2.4x 4.9x 3.9x EV / EBIT 4.7x 4.2x 6.9x 5.7x PER 7.5x 8.6x 10.8x 9.3x Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa  Sensitivity analysis (WACC & g) Gowex. Sensitivity Analysis WACC Perpetual growth rate (g) 10.68 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 11.5% 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.0 12.5% 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 13.5% 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 14.5% 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 15.5% 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 16.5% 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 17.5% 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates Multiples comparison Although there is no purely, comparable company with Gowex (due to its particular business model, diversification, etc) within Wireless sector there are two listed companies in the US (they aggregate operators networks to offer roaming and interconnection services): - Boingo: >500,000 hotspots world-wide, began trading in May 2011 in the Nasdaq. Boingo is an international, WI-FI service provider, offering retail clients (final users) and wholesalers access service to Wi-Fi points. In 2011 the company generated USD95m revenues and USD28m EBITDA. Boingo’s 2012 guidance points to +19% revenues and +30% EBITDA. - iPass. 750,000 hotspots in 120 countries. Offers mobile connectivity services to companies. In 2011 it generated USD140m revenues (falling 9%) and small loss at operating level (EBITDA USD-0.2m). Boingo trades at 6.9x EV/EBITDA’12e vs. Gowex’ 2.5x. At our fair value (EUR10.7/share, implying 4.9x EV/EBITDA’12e), Gowex’ discount vs. Boingo would be of 30%, which we would consider justified considering Boingo’s greater liquidity (trades in the Nasdaq). Company Price Mkt. Cap. EV/EBITDA PER Mg EBITDA CAGR EBITDA DN/EBITDA Performance % (EUR) (EUR m) 2012e 2013e 2012e 2013e 2012e 2011-13e 2011 1m 6m 12m Boingo Wireless Inc. 8.73 303 6.9x 5.2x 36.9x 26.5x 33.4% 29.4% -3.3x -2% 37% 37% iPass Inc. 116 26.2x -5% 59% 64% Gowex (Bankia) 6.01 78 2.5x 2.0x 6.1x 5.2x 25.1% 33.6% -1.3x 1% 5% 19% Gowex (Factset) 6.01 78 2.2x 1.6x 6.3x 5.3x 25.1% 50.8% -0.9x 1% 5% 19% Source: Facset, Bankia Bolsa Page 15
  • 16. Gowex Comparable transactions The Wi-Fi sector is a young, atomised sector in which, in our opinion, a consolidation process must take place to seek critical mass. In recent months some operations have taken place, granting visibility to the sector’s growth. The most recent has been Arqiva Broadcast Holding’s acquisition of Spectrum Interactive Ltd, acquiring 100% for GBP23.4m. Spectrum Interactive is one of the largest, independent Wi-Fi operators in the UK, with 15,500 access points in 2,100 Premium locations (hotels, restaurants, airports, etc). According to the official release, the agreement will allow Arqiva to accelerate growth in the wholesale mobile data activity via the acquisition of a scalable platform. Following this acquisition Arquiva will be one of the largest Wi-Fi access point providers in UK. Market performance and shareholder structure Gowex began trading in the alternative market (MAB) on March 12th 2010, via a subscription offer among institutional investors at EUR3.5/share. Since then the stock has enjoyed a +75% performance. Apart from trading in the Spanish MAB, it also trades in the French Alternext since June 2010. The dual listing increases and diversifies its shareholder structure, and crosses a larger number of trading operations. Gowex’ intention is to jump to the spanish continuous market and also to one or various renowned international markets. Gowex’ shareholder structure is made up by Mr. Jenaro Garcia (CEO, 60% via Cash Devices and Biotelgy VC) and the rest of the management, that jointly hold 70.3% of the group. The free float is 29.7% (c. half of free float is held by institutional investors). Gowex. Price performance Gowex. Shareholder structure Free-float 30% Jenaro García 60% Alvasebi 10% Source. Facset: Source: Gowex & ESN Bankia Bolsa Page 16
  • 17. Gowex Risk Factors 1) Risk of not attaining sufficient critical mass that would convert the GOWEX Roaming Platform into one of the reference solution in the market. 2) Technological risks: obsolescence, network security. 3) Risk of new competitors. 4) Risk in relation to the position of the incumbent and large operators. 5) Risk of depending on key people. 6) Risk of acquisitions (although not included in our estimates, there is the risk of overpaying for potential acquisitions). 7) Risk of reduced market liquidity. SWOT analysis STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES  The backlog of GOWEX Wireless.  Relatively small size.  Neutral positioning and technological  Reduced liquidity in Alternative markets innovation capabilities. (MAB, Alternext)  Strong financial position (net cash).  GOWEX Telecom’s positive track record. OPPORTUNITIES THREATS  Development of WiFi cities abroad.  The position of the incumbent and large operators.  Wireless roaming platform as a reference in the sector.  New competitors.  Potential offered by geolocalised Internet  Technological obsolescence. advertising. Page 17
  • 18. Gowex Annex Company description and history Group Gowex operates in the telecommunication sector, holding a unique position as a neutral infrastructure manager and interconnection service provider for operators, exploiting telecommunication networks. Gowex defines itself as an agent or neutral player, with the intention to endow the market with the electronic communications, instruments and tools necessary to make the best and most efficient use of the latter (internet broad band, data transmission circuits, use of radio electric spectrum and WI-FI). Let’s Gowex is the result of the changed corporate name in 2008 from IBER-X (Iber Band Exchange SA), founded in 1999 as a telecommunications service company for wholesalers. The main milestones are summed up in the following graph: Gowex. Milestones Source: Gowex The Group’s growth pillars are 1) creation, development and exploitation of technological platforms; 2) technological and legal consultant; 3) creator of contents, service and geo-localised advertising platforms and WI-FI points map; 4) exploitation of WI-FI Cities. Gowex bases its activity on two main business lines: 1) GOWEX Wireless (group’s main growth driver) provides diverse services related to wireless telecommunications: consultancy, management and exploitation of WI-FI networks, wireless roaming platform, advertising and electronic geo-localised commerce of wireless networks. 2) GOWEX Telecom Services (traditional activity, previously Iber-X): managing and exploitation of a commercial product exchange platform and services for the B2B telecommunications market and certain accessory services. Page 18
  • 19. Gowex Gowex: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Sales 24.2 35.2 49.6 66.7 94.5 117 Cost of Sales & Operating Costs -21.9 -29.7 -40.3 -50.2 -70.8 -87.5 Non Recurrent Expenses/Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 2.3 5.5 9.4 16.5 23.7 29.5 EBITDA (adj.)* 2.3 5.5 9.4 16.5 23.7 29.5 Depreciation -0.8 -1.0 -1.6 -3.4 -4.8 -7.0 EBITA 1.5 4.5 7.8 13.1 18.8 22.4 EBITA (adj)* 1.5 4.5 7.8 13.1 18.8 22.4 Amortisations and Write Downs -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -2.0 -2.0 EBIT 1.3 3.6 6.3 9.5 16.8 20.4 EBIT (adj.)* 1.3 3.6 6.3 9.5 16.8 20.4 Net Financial Interest 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 Other Financials 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 1.2 3.5 6.3 9.6 17.0 20.6 Tax -0.3 -0.6 -1.2 -2.4 -4.3 -5.5 Tax rate 21.9% 17.9% 18.7% 25.1% 25.0% 26.8% Discontinued Operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Profit (reported) 1.0 2.9 5.1 7.2 12.8 15.1 Net Profit (adj.) 1.0 2.9 5.1 7.2 12.8 15.1 CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 2.0 4.8 8.2 14.2 19.6 24.1 Change in Net Working Capital 0.0 -2.1 -8.1 24.9 -4.1 -2.8 Cash Flow from Operations 2.0 2.7 0.2 39.1 15.5 21.3 Capex -1.4 -1.6 -5.8 -10.7 -16.1 -17.5 Net Financial Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow 0.6 1.1 -5.6 28.5 -0.6 3.7 Dividends 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.2 Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs) -1.8 -1.3 3.7 5.1 -2.7 0.0 Change in Net Debt -1.1 -0.2 -0.9 34.5 -1.3 6.0 NOPLAT 0.9 2.5 4.4 6.7 11.8 14.3 BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Net Tangible Assets 1.3 1.7 5.8 13.3 22.9 31.9 Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill) 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 3.6 5.2 Net Financial Assets & Other 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total Fixed Assets 3.2 3.8 8.3 16.0 27.2 37.8 Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Trade receivables 19.4 20.7 25.9 9.9 9.4 11.7 Other current assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash (-) -2.3 -5.8 -15.1 -31.2 -27.6 -27.3 Total Current Assets 21.8 26.5 41.1 41.1 37.1 39.0 Total Assets 25.0 30.3 49.4 57.1 64.3 76.8 Shareholders Equity 9.5 12.5 22.9 35.1 47.9 62.8 Minority 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Equity 9.5 12.5 22.9 35.1 47.9 62.8 Long term interest bearing debt 0.8 1.2 3.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other long term liabilities 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.6 -5.1 -8.1 Total Long Term Liabilities 1.2 1.8 4.7 8.8 1.1 -1.9 Short term interest bearing debt 0.9 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 Trade payables 13.4 14.0 19.2 10.2 12.3 12.9 Other current liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Current Liabilities 14.3 16.0 21.8 13.2 15.3 15.9 Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 25.0 30.3 49.4 57.1 64.3 76.8 Net Capital Employed 9.2 10.4 15.1 15.7 24.3 36.5 Net Working Capital 6.0 6.7 6.8 -0.3 -2.9 -1.2 GROWTH & MARGINS 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Sales growth 42.6% 45.4% 41.1% 34.4% 41.7% 23.8% EBITDA (adj.)* growth 107.3% 139.2% 69.8% 76.3% 43.3% 24.5% EBITA (adj.)* growth 255.7% 190.0% 74.2% 67.7% 43.8% 19.1% EBIT (adj)*growth 529.6% 184.0% 74.6% 51.9% 77.2% 21.4% Page 19
  • 20. Gowex Gowex: Summary tables GROWTH & MARGINS 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Net Profit growth +chg 197.5% 78.4% 40.7% 76.8% 18.1% EPS adj. growth +chg 197.5% 51.8% 25.3% 76.8% 18.1% DPS adj. growth +chg -11.0% 91.4% 17.0% EBITDA (adj)* margin 9.5% 15.7% 18.9% 24.8% 25.1% 25.2% EBITA (adj)* margin 6.4% 12.7% 15.7% 19.6% 19.9% 19.2% EBIT (adj)* margin 5.2% 10.2% 12.6% 14.2% 17.8% 17.5% RATIOS 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 Net Debt/EBITDA -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 -0.6 Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest) nm 68.9 nm nm nm nm Capex/D&A 132.1% 83.2% 185.4% 152.0% 235.1% 194.5% Capex/Sales 5.7% 4.6% 11.6% 16.0% 17.0% 15.0% NWC/Sales 24.9% 19.0% 13.7% -0.5% -3.1% -1.0% ROE (average) 12.7% 26.1% 29.0% 24.9% 30.7% 27.2% ROCE (adj.) 9.8% 24.4% 30.0% 44.5% 49.9% 39.9% WACC 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% ROCE (adj.)/WACC 0.7 1.7 2.1 3.1 3.4 2.8 PER SHARE DATA (EUR)*** 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Average diluted number of shares 9.8 9.8 11.5 12.9 12.9 12.9 EPS (reported) 0.10 0.29 0.45 0.56 0.99 1.17 EPS (adj.) 0.10 0.29 0.45 0.56 0.99 1.17 BVPS 0.97 1.28 1.99 2.72 3.70 4.86 DPS 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.15 0.17 VALUATION 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 EV/EBITDA 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 EV/EBITDA (adj.)* 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 EV/EBITA 3.8 3.0 3.1 2.7 EV/EBITA (adj.)* 3.8 3.0 3.1 2.7 EV/EBIT 4.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 EV/EBIT (adj.)* 4.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 P/E (adj.) 7.5 8.6 6.1 5.2 P/BV 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 Total Yield Ratio -2.6% -2.5% -2.9% -3.4% EV/CE 2.0 2.7 2.5 1.7 OpFCF yield -3.3% 58.8% 14.8% 21.7% OpFCF/EV -4.3% 91.3% 19.4% 28.4% Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 13.8% 15.0% 14.9% Dividend yield (gross) 2.6% 1.3% 2.5% 2.9% EV AND MKT CAP (EURm) 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012e 12/2013e Price** (EUR) 3.35 4.79 6.01 6.01 Outstanding number of shares for main stock 9.8 9.8 11.5 12.9 12.9 12.9 Total Market Cap 39 62 78 78 Net Debt -1 -3 -9 -22 -18 -18 o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-) -2 -6 -15 -31 -28 -27 o/w Gross Debt (+) 2 3 6 9 9 9 Other EV components 0 0 0 0 0 0 Enterprise Value (EV adj.) 29 40 59 60 Source: Company, Bankia Bolsa estimates. Notes * Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation **Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years Sector: Telecommunications/Telecommunications Company Description: Gowex operates within the telecommunication sector, occupying a unique position as a neutral infrastructure manager and interconnection services company for operators. Gowex was founded in 1999 and currently focuses on 2 main activities: 1) Gowex Wireless (main growth driver): services related to wireless telecommunications: management and operation of WiFi networks, wireless roaming platform 2) Gowex Telecom (traditional activity): bandwith trading and B2B telecoms market services. Page 20