SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 20
Download to read offline
GOWE
        G  EX
        Spa Telecomm
          ain/     munications                                                                                                                           C
                                                                                                                                                         Company update


        Inv
          vestment Research                                                                                                                                          Re
                                                                                                                                                                      eason: Estimat Revision
                                                                                                                                                                                   tes                                   5 Decem
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               mber 2012

        Bu
         uy                                                                                                                                 Growth a
                                                                                                                                                   acceleratin seekin global s
                                                                                                                                                             ng:    ng       scale
       Reco
          ommendation un
                       nchanged
       Sha price: EU
         are       UR                                                                                               11.98                   Despite the re
                                                                                                                                                         ecently good performance (+165% during the last 12m at current market
                                                                                                                                                                       p             (             g            m),
       closing price as of 04/12/2012
             g                      2                                                                                                       price, GOWE trades at EV/EBITDA’13e 4.3x and P/E’13e 9.1x, that in ou view
                                                                                                                                                         EX                                       d                            ur
       Tar
         rget price: E
                     EUR                                                                                            15.00                   does not refl lect the comppany’s growth (CAGR’11-1 +33% in sales, +36% E
                                                                                                                                                                                                   14e            s            EBITDA
       from Target Price: EU
          m                UR                                                                                       10.70                   and +42% ne profit), its fin
                                                                                                                                                         et            nancial health and positive ttrack-record. In our view, G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               GOWEX
       Reuter
            rs/Bloomberg                                                                                                                    will continue generating vaalue thanks to its scalable business mo
                                                                                                                                                                                     o                           odel and its strategic
                                                                                                           GOW.MC/GOW SQ
                                                                                                                                            positioning, w
                                                                                                                                                         which allows capturing value generated in various points of the Wi-Fi
                                                                                                                                                                                                    d                          e
       Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth                                                                                    11,203
                                                                                                                                            sector’s value chain.
                                                                                                                                                         e
       Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 m (m)
                                mth                                                                                         0.08
       Price high 12 mth (EUR)  )                                                                                          12.70               The inteention behind the rights issue announ
                                                                                                                                                                      d              i              nced (of up to EUR30m, 20% of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  t
       Price low 12 mth (EUR)                                                                                               4.46                current s
                                                                                                                                                        shares) is douuble, in line with the operattions carried out in 2010-2011: 1)
                                                                                                                                                                                    w                             o
       Abs. perf. 1 mth                                                                                                    2.0%
                                                                                                                                                Acceleraation of orgaanic growth: capture funds to finance its expansion s
                                                                                                                                                                                     c             s              s            strategy
       Abs. perf. 3 mth                                                                                                   77.5%
                                                                                                                                                (to 300 o the largest cities world-wide, via a strattegic agreeme with a part
                                                                                                                                                        of            c                                          ent           tner); 2)
       Abs. perf. 12 mth                                                                                                 165.6%
                                                                                                                                                Increase the shareho
                                                                                                                                                        e             older base and stock liqu     uidity: Follow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 wing the rights issue,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               s
       Market capitalisation (E
                              EURm)                                                                                                155          the free float will inc
                                                                                                                                                                      crease from current 30% to 41%. On         nce the opera ation is
       Curre N° of shares (m)
           ent                                                                                                                      13          complete GOWEX will request the SEC approva to issue ADRs (level 1 OT
                                                                                                                                                        ed,          w              e               al                         TC).
       Free float                                                                                                                 30%
                                                                                                                                               Good re  esults momentum and st       trong financiial position. At 6m’12, re evenues
       Key financials (EUR)                                                 12/11                      122/12e             12/13e               increased 60%, EBIT
                                                                                                                                                          d           TDA +62% an net profit 70% (to EUR
                                                                                                                                                                                     nd                           R5.5m). The relative
       Sales (m)                                                                67                          100                122              weight of the internatio
                                                                                                                                                          f            onal activity co
                                                                                                                                                                                      ontinues grow wing, at 1H’12 reaching 51% of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              %
       EBITD (m)
             DA                                                                 17                            26                 32
                                                                                                                                                total sale (vs. 30% in 2011), as well as recurre revenues (65% of the to
                                                                                                                                                         es            n                            ent           (           otal). At
       EBITD margin
             DA                                                           24.8%                        266.2%              26.2%
       EBIT ( (m)                                                               10                            20                 23
                                                                                                                                                June 20 012, GOWEX accumulates EUR19m n
                                                                                                                                                                                      s             net cash (EU UR32m gross). Said
       EBIT m margin                                                      14.2%                        200.2%              18.7%                financial position is one of the com  mpany’s stron points, as it can negotiate co-
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ng
       Net Pr (adj.)(m)
              rofit                                                              7                            15                 17             investme ent agreemen  nts with mun   nicipalities an transport companies i new
                                                                                                                                                                                                    nd                         in
       ROCE  E                                                             44.5%                        57.8%               41.0%
                                                                                                                                                countries (including exclusivity, lo
                                                                                                                                                         s             e             onger term co  contracts etc.) and reinfor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  )           rces its
       Net deebt/(cash) (m)                                                   (22)                          (19)               (18)
       Net De Equity
              ebt                                                            -0.6                          -0.4               -0.3              capacity to continue grrowing organic cally.
       Net De ebt/EBITDA                                                      -1.3                          -0.7               -0.6
       Int. co
             over(EBITDA/Fin.int)                                         (125.8)                      (144.7)             (213.3)
                                                                                                                                               Estimate revised up We have made some ad
                                                                                                                                                         es          p:           m             djustments, no including the rights
                                                                                                                                                                                                              ot            e
       EV/Sa ales                                                              0.6                           1.4                1.1             issue. In 2013-14e, our EBITDA rises 11%, with revenues accelerating fo
                                                                                                                                                                                                  h           a            ollowing
       EV/EB BITDA                                                             2.4                           5.2                4.3             the receently announcced contracts We estima
                                                                                                                                                                                   s.            ate CAGR 20   011-14e of 333% in
       EV/EB BITDA (adj.)                                                      2.4                           5.2                4.3
                                                                                                                                                revenues 36% in EBITDA and 42% in net profi with wireless, internation and
                                                                                                                                                         s,                        %             fit,                      nal
       EV/EB BIT                                                               4.2                           6.7                6.0
       P/E (adj.)                                                              8.6                         10.1                 9.1             recurrent revenues pro
                                                                                                                                                         t                         creasing their weight on tota revenues.
                                                                                                                                                                     ogressively inc                           al
       P/BV                                                                    1.8                           3.1                2.3
       OpFC yield
            CF                                                            45.9%                          1.3%
                                                                                                        -1                   0.9%
                                                                                                                                               Valuatio revised to EUR15.0/sh
                                                                                                                                                         on             o             hare (+40%), arising from the aforementioned
       Divide yield
             end                                                            0.6%                         1.4%
                                                                                                         1                   1.6%               adjustme  ents to our est
                                                                                                                                                                        timates, the ro             cember 2013, and applying a lower
                                                                                                                                                                                      oll-over to Dec
       EPS (a adj.)                                                          0.56                          1.18               1.32              WACC (    (12.5% vs. 14  4.5%), accordding to the p positive track record, the greater
       BVPS                                                                  2.72                          3.90               5.21
                                                                                                                                                liquidity aand financial strength. Our new fair valu discounts EV/EBITDA’13 5.5x
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ue            E            3e
       DPS                                                                   0.08                          0.17               0.20
                                                                                                                                                and P/E’ 13e 11.5x, im mplying a potential of +26% over current price. Its mai peer,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   %                           in
                                                                                                                                                Boingo (  (US Wi-Fi agg gregator) trades at an EV//EBITDA’13e of 5.2x and P    P/E’13e
                                                                                                                                                24.4x, v  vs. GOWEX’ EV/EBITDA’13e of 4.3x and P/E’13e of
                                                                                                                                                                                                    x                       9.1x Buy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               x.
       13
        vvdsvdvsdy


       12
                                                                                                                                                recomm endation reit    terated
       11

       10                                                                                                                                      We belie the succes
                                                                                                                                                         eve           ssful execution of the exppansion plan (to 300 cities, details
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ,
         9

         8                                                                                                                                      not discl osed yet), in addition to the positive s
                                                                                                                                                                                                 strategic impplications (to obtain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           o
         7

         6
                                                                                                                                                critical m
                                                                                                                                                         mass, occupyin a leading position world
                                                                                                                                                                       ng                                     elopment/exploitation
                                                                                                                                                                                                 d-wide in deve
         5

         4
                                                                                                                                                of Wi-Fi cities, defenssive move vs possible ne entrants), could add a
                                                                                                                                                                                    s.           ew                         another
         3
         Nov 11      Dec
                     D 11   Jan 12   Feb 12   Mar 12   Apr 12
                                                            2   May 12   Jun 12   Jul 12      Aug 12    Se 12
                                                                                                         ep     Oct 12   Nov 12    Dec 12
                                                                                                                                                EUR10-1  12/share to ou FV.
                                                                                                                                                                       ur
                                                            GOWEX
                                                            G                 MAB (Rebased)
       Source: Factse
                    et


           eholders: Jenaro Ga
       Share                 arcía 60%; Alvasebi 10%;
                                                                                                                                            Analyst(s): Da
                                                                                                                                                         avid Cabeza Ja
                                                                                                                                                                      areño        +3 91 4367818
                                                                                                                                                                                    34                dcabeza@b
                                                                                                                                                                                                              bankia.com


       For co
            ompany description ple
                                 ease see summary tab footnote
                                                    ble




Produced by:
       d                                                                                                                                                                   All ESN re
                                                                                                                                                                                    esearch is availlable on Bloom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 mberg (“ESNR””),
                                                                                                                                                                           Thomson- -Reuters, Capit IQ, TheMark
                                                                                                                                                                                                   tal           kets.com, FactS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Set


Distribute by the Members of ESN
         ed
(see last pag of this report)
            ge
GOWEX




CO
 ONTENTS
       S
Grow accelerating ....... ..................
   wth                                     ....................................
                                                                              ........................ 3 
Details of the rights issue                                                                                     3 

Good results momen
                 ntum and news flow. Estimate adjusted.
                             s              es                                                                  4 

Valu
   uation.......................... ..................                                  ........................ 5 
                                                     ....................................
DCF V
    Valuation: EUR
                 R15.0/share                                                                                    5 

Multip comparison
     ples       n                                                                                               6 

Secto Wi-Fi & M&A
    or                                                                                                          6 

Poten value creat via the exp
    ntial       tion        pansion plan                                                                        7 

Risks & Threats                                                                                                 8 

GOW
  WEX. At a Glance ...... ..................
            G                                                                 ........................ 9 
                                           ....................................
Wi-F sector. Complemen mobile networks ...................
   Fi        C       nts                                 ...................... 10 
  WEX’ Position ............ ..................
GOW                                                                              ...................... 11 
                                              ....................................
ESN Recomme
  N       endation Sy
                    ystem .......                                  ...................... 18 
                                ....................................




                                                                                                                      Pag 2
                                                                                                                        ge
GOWEX




                           Grow acce
                              wth  elerating
                                           g
                           The int
                                 tention behin the rights issue announced (of up to EUR30m which is 20% above t
                                             nd         s                       p           m,        2          the
                           current shares) is double: 1) accelerate the organic growth sp
                                 t                                              c          peed and 2) increase tthe
                           shareholder base, in line wit the opera
                                                         th        ations carried out in 20 10 and 2011. Despite t
                                                                                                                 the
                           recently good perfformance (+1165% during the last 12
                                                                    g           2m), at curre market price, GOWEX
                                                                                            ent
                           trades at EV/EBIT TDA’13e 4.3 and P/E’13e 9.1x, th in our v
                                                        3x                     hat         view does not reflect t
                                                                                                     n           the
                           compa any’s growth (CAGR’11  1-14e +33% in sales, +336% EBITDA and +42% net profit), its
                                                                                           A
                           financial health (n cash) and positive tr
                                             net          d         rack-record.
                           In our vview, GOWE will contin generating value tha
                                              EX           nue                    anks to its sc
                                                                                               calable busin ness model aand
                           its stra
                                  ategic positio
                                               oning, which allows the company to capture v
                                                          h           e                        value genera  ated in varioous
                           points of the Wi-Fi sector’s valu chain. We have adjus
                                                           ue                      sted our estiimates and valuation up by
                                                                                                              v
                           +40% to EUR15.0/    /share, whic discounts multiples of 5.5x EV/
                                                          ch           s                       V/EBITDA’13e and P/E’1    13e
                           11.5x and implies a 26% up     pside potential at curren market pr
                                                                                  nt            rice. Buy re ecommendation
                           reiterat
                                  ted, and we believe the successful execution of the expa
                                                                       l                        ansion plan (to 300 cities,
                                                                                                            n
                           details not disclose yet), in a
                                               ed         addition to th positive strategic imp
                                                                       he          s            plications (to obtain critical
                                                                                                             o
                           mass, occupying a leading po    osition world
                                                                       d-wide in de
                                                                                  evelopment/e  exploitation of Wi-Fi cities,
                           defensive move vs. possible ne entrants), could add another EUR
                                               .          ew                                   R10-12/share to our FV.
                                                                                                             e

                           Details of the rights issue
                                 s
                           GOWE is immersed in its third rights issue in three yea The first was due to its listing to t
                                EX                      d           e            ars.         t                        the
                           MAB (SSpanish Alte
                                            ernative Mark
                                                        ket, March 2010, at EUR
                                                                    2            R3.5/share; oobtaining EU
                                                                                                         UR6m); and t  the
                           second in July 2011 (EUR6.9 at EUR4
                                d                      9m           4.84/share). The current rights issue is for a to
                                                                                                          e           otal
                           maximum of EUR3  30m, at EURR11.6/share (2,586m sha   ares) and im
                                                                                            mplies 20% over the curre
                                                                                                         o             ent
                           numbe of shares trading. There are two rea
                                er                     re            asons behind this rights iissue:
                                                                                 d
                           1)   Capture fund to financ its expansion strateg Said plan includes th deployme
                                C            ds          ce                       gy.            n          he           ent
                                and implementation of its services (d
                                                         s            design, deplo
                                                                                  oyment, explloitation and manageme
                                                                                                           d             ent
                                of Wi-Fi netw
                                            works) in 300 of the larg
                                                         0            gest, referen cities w
                                                                                  nce          world-wide, via a strateg gic
                                agreement with a partner which impl
                                                          r                       antial effort iin Capex. Th intention is
                                                                      lies a substa                         he
                                ambitious, as it implies m
                                            s            multiplying th company's presence by 5x (curre
                                                                      he                                    ently 60 citie
                                                                                                                         es,
                                with
                                w a smaller average siz
                                             r           ze).
                           2)   Endow its valuation w
                                E            v          with greater liquidity and increase its share
                                                                                             e            eholder bas se.
                                Reference sh
                                R            hareholders a not expe
                                                         are         ected to subscribe the ne rights iss
                                                                                             ew           sue. We reca all
                                th the exec
                                 hat         cutive team currently hoolds 59.6% (including 100.6% of Alvasebi, >70%   %).
                                Following th rights iss
                                F            he          sue, free flo will incr
                                                                     oat         rease from current 29.7% to 41.4%     %,
                                le
                                 eaving 49.7% in the han
                                             %           nds of the executive tea and 8.9% in Alvaseb
                                                                     e           am          %             bi’s. Once th
                                                                                                                       he
                                operation is completed, G
                                             c          GOWEX will request the SEC appro
                                                                                 e           oval to issue ADRs (lev  vel
                                1 OTC). The schedule to begin trading in the US is 1Q’13 (cur
                                                                      g                      rrently the co
                                                                                                          ompany trade es
                                in the Spanish MAB and N
                                 n            h          NYSE Alternext in Paris).
                                                                                 .
GOW
  WEX. Shareho
             older’s base (post operatio
                                       on)            GOW
                                                        WEX. Agenda for the rights issue
                                                                    f            s




Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa
                       a                              Source:: GOWEX




                                                                                                                  Page 3
GOWEX




                                     Good results mo
                                                   omentum a news flow. Estima adjuste
                                                           and               ates    ed.
                                               Goood 6m’12 results, inc    creasing int   ternational exposure a  and recurre results. At
                                                                                                                               ent
                                                6mm’12, revenue increased 60%, EBIT
                                                               es            d             TDA +62% and net prof 70% (to EUR5.5m). T
                                                                                                       a            fit        E          The
                                                rela
                                                   ative weight of the intern ational activity continues growing, at 1H’12 reach
                                                                                                       s                       hing 51% of t
                                                                                                                                           the
                                                tota sales (vs. 30% in 2011 as well as recurrent re
                                                   al                       1),           s            evenues (65% of the tota
                                                                                                                    %          al).
                                               Poositive news flow conti
                                                               s             inues: GOW WEX continues announc      cing agreemeents with cit
                                                                                                                                           ties
                                                and transport companies. T most rec
                                                    d         c             The         cent were: 1) in Dubai, in which GOW  WEX has signned
                                                an agreement with the ma public transport comp
                                                                            ain                      pany (PTA) t provide free Wi-Fi in t
                                                                                                                    to                      the
                                                cities’ busses. The agreem  ment is strate
                                                                                         egically impo             opens a door to the Middle
                                                                                                      ortant as it o
                                                East; 2) in Ma arseille, sign
                                                                            ning an agreeement to pr  rovide free W Wi-Fi to urb
                                                                                                                               ban buses. WWe
                                                exppect announcements on new internat    tional contrac to continu in upcoming months.
                                                                                                      cts           ue
                                               Str
                                                  rong financ cial position At June 2012, GOW
                                                                           n:                      WEX accum   mulates EUR R19m net ca   ash
                                                (EU
                                                  UR32m gros Said fina
                                                              ss).        ancial positio is one of the compan
                                                                                       on                      ny’s strong points, as it c
                                                                                                                                         can
                                                neg
                                                  gotiate co-in
                                                              nvestment aggreements with municipa
                                                                                       w           alities and tr          mpanies in new
                                                                                                                ransport com
                                                cou
                                                  untries (inclu
                                                               uding exclus                        acts etc.) and reinforces its capacity to
                                                                          sivity, longer term contra             d                       y
                                                  ntinue growin organicallly.
                                                con            ng
                                               Estimates revised up: We have made some adjustments, not including th rights issu
                                                                            e          e                      t           he         ue.
                                                In 2013-14e, our EBITDA rises 11%, with revenu accelera
                                                              o                                  ues         ating followin the recen
                                                                                                                          ng        ntly
                                                annnounced conntracts. We e estimate CAGR 2011-14 of 33% in revenues, 36% in EBITDA
                                                                                                 4e                       3
                                                and 42% in ne profit, with wireless, international and recurre revenues progressiv
                                                   d           et           h          i                     ent          s         vely
                                                inc
                                                  creasing their respective w
                                                               r            weight.

GOW
  WEX. 1H’12 res
               sults. 9m’12 f
                            forecasts                                                    GOWEX. Est
                                                                                                  timates adjus
                                                                                                              sted (2012-14e
                                                                                                                           e)
      (EUR m)                9m12        3T12           1H 11 1H12 Var %
                                                                   2                                                 2011a      2012e     201
                                                                                                                                            13e     2014e CAG 11-14e
                                                                                                                                                           AGR
      Revenues               69.1        28.1            25.7 41.0 60%
                                                                  0                                            Old    66.77       94.5    1177.0     145.0   30%
       Telecom                                            6.6  9.1   38%                          Sales      New      66.77       99.9    1222.4     155.3   33%
       Wireless                                          19.1 31.9 67%
                                                                  9                                         Dif.%    0.0%%       5.7%     4.6
                                                                                                                                            6%       7.1%
                                                                                                               Old    16.55       23.7     29
                                                                                                                                            9.5       36.1   30%
      Gross Margin            30.5  12.7                 10.7 17.8 66%
                                                                  8
                                                                                                 EBITDAA     New      16.55       26.1     32
                                                                                                                                            2.0       41.2   36%
      Gross Mg %              44%   45%                  42% 43% 1.5pp
                                                                 %
                                                                                                            Dif.%    0.0%%      10.2%     8.5
                                                                                                                                            5%      14.3%
      EBITDA                  15.7   7.6                  5.0  8.1   62%                                       Old     7.2        12.8     15
                                                                                                                                            5.1       20.0   40%
      EBITDA Mg %
      E                      22.7% 27.1%                19.5% 19.7% 0.2pp
                                                                  %                             Net Proffit New        7.2        15.3     16
                                                                                                                                            6.9       20.8   42%
      EBIT                                                4.6  7.6   68%                                    Dif.%    0.0%%      19.4%     12.2
                                                                                                                                             2%      3.8%
      EBIT Mg
      E                                                 17.8% 18.6% 0.9pp
                                                                  %                                            Old    10.77       16.1     17
                                                                                                                                            7.5       18.8   21%
      BAI                                                 4.6  7.8   70%                           Cap ex New         10.77       18.0     22
                                                                                                                                            2.0       27.9   38%
      Net Profit                                          3.2  5.5   70%                                    Dif.%    0.0%%      11.7%     25.9
                                                                                                                                             9%     48.7%

GOW
  WEX. EBITDA margin perfo
                         ormance                                                         GOWEX. ND/
                                                                                                  /EBITDA

    180
      0                                                                            30%
                 Sales         EBITDA mg                          26.2%    26.6%
    160
      0                                                  26.2%             155.3                   0.00                                                        0.00
                                                                                                           09        10         11       12e       13e   14e
                                        24.8%                                      25%            -0.10                                                        -0.20
    140
      0
                                                                  122.4                           -0.20
                                                                                                                                                               -0.40
    120
      0
                             18.9%                     99.9                        20%            -0.30
                                                                                                                                                               -0.60

    100
      0                                                                                                                                                        -0.80
                   15.7%                                                                          -0.40
     80
      0                                         66.7                                                                                                           -1.00
                                 49.6                                              15%            -0.50
                                                                                                                                                               -1.20
     60
      0
                      35.2                                                                        -0.60
     40
      0     9.5%                                                                                                                                               -1.40
                                                                                   10%
          24.2                                                                                    -0.70                                                        -1.60
     20
      0
      0                                                                            5%                                 Gear
                                                                                                                         ring        Debt/EBITDA (rhs)
          2008        2009      2010        2011       2012e     2013e    2014e

Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa
                       a                                                                 Source: ESN Bank Bolsa
                                                                                                        kia




                                                                                                                                                                 Page 4
GOWEX



                               Valu
                                  uation
                               DCF V
                                   Valuation: EUR15.0/sh
                                              E        hare
                               Valuation revised to EUR15.0  0/share (+40%), arising from the afor
                                                                                                 rementioned adjustments to
                                                                                                                       s
                               our es
                                    stimates, the roll-over to December 2013, and applying a lower WAC (12.5% vs.
                                                e            o          r                                   CC
                               14.5%) according to the positiv track reco the grea liquidity and financia strength. O
                                     ),                       ve         ord,        ater                   al         Our
                               new fa value discounts EV/E
                                    air                      EBITDA’13e 5.5x and P/
                                                                        e             /E’13e 11.5x
                                                                                                 x.
                               We ha ave carried out a disco unted cash flow valua
                                                 o                    h          ation on 20  013-1018e, applying 12.5
                                                                                                            a           5%
                               WACC and 2.0% “g”. We a
                                     C                     assume an EBITDA ma   argin in 201 8e (23%) below the 26
                                                                                                           b            6%
                               estimat for 2012-14e, and CA
                                      ted                   APEX for 20
                                                                      018e of 8% over sales, in line with the amortisatio
                                                                                 o            n             e           ons
                               in said year.


GO
 OWEX DCF VALUA
              ATION TO                                      31-Dec-13

CA FLOW STATE
 ASH                EMENT FOR DCF
CA FLOW (EUR m
 ASH                 m)                        2011            2012e             2013e             2014e             2015e             2016e            2017e
                                                                                                                                                        2                20
                                                                                                                                                                          018e
Net sales
  t                                            66.7             99.9             122.4             155.3             191.3             217.4            250.9
                                                                                                                                                        2                2443.7
EBIT                                            9.5             20.2              22.9              28.1              31.2              32.5             35.4             37.7
                                                                                                                                                                          3
 OPLAT
NO                                              7.1             15.1              16.9              20.8              23.1              23.7             25.5             27.2
                                                                                                                                                                          2
Dep
  preciations and othe provisions
                     er                         -7.0            -5.9              -9.1             -13.2             -17.1             -20.9            -24.5            -1
                                                                                                                                                                          19.5
Gro operating cas flow
  oss                sh                        14.1             21.1              26.1              34.0              40.2              44.6             50.0             46.7
                                                                                                                                                                          4
Cap expenditure
  pital                                        -10.7           -18.0             -22.0             -27.9             -26.8             -26.1            -25.1            -1
                                                                                                                                                                          19.5
Cha
  ange in net working capital
                     g                          0.0             -5.2              -2.7              -4.5              -5.2              -3.0             -4.3             -0.2
                                                                                                                                                                          -
Cas flow to be disc
  sh                 counted                    3.5             -2.1               1.3              1.5                8.3              15.5             20.7             26.9
                                                                                                                                                                          2

DCF VALUATION (EU m) UR                                                          2013e             2014e             2015e            2016e             2017e
                                                                                                                                                        2           Nominal year
WA
 ACC                                                                             12.5%             12.5%             12.5%            12.5%             12.5%
                                                                                                                                                        1             12
                                                                                                                                                                       2.5%
Discount Rate factor                                                              1.00              0.89              0.79             0.70              0.62          0.55
                                                                                                                                                                       0
Discounted cash flow                                                               1.3              1.3                6.5             10.9              12.9
Cu mulated DCF                                                                     1.3              2.6                9.1             20.0              32.9
WA & DCF ANAL ISYS
 ACC

Fre risk rate
  ee                           4.50%                      Cumulated DCF                                    32.9                   - Ne financial debt (Cas (12e)
                                                                                                                                     et                    sh)                    -18
Commpany risk factor            2.00                      Perpetual growt h rate (g)                       2.0%                   - Min
                                                                                                                                      norities (estimated v
                                                                                                                                                          value)                    0
Market risk premium            4.00%                      Normalised Annua CF
                                                                           al                                 27                  + As
                                                                                                                                     ssociates                                      0
Cos of Equity (Ke)
   st                          12.50%                     Terminal Value at Nominal Year                    257
Cos of debt (gross)
   st                           5.0%                      Disc.Rate of Term Value
                                                                          minal                            0.55
Norrmative tax rate            30.0%                      NPV Terminal Va alue                            142.4                   Equity Market Value (E m)
                                                                                                                                                       EUR                      195
Cos of Debt Net (Kd
   st                d)        3.50%                                                                                              Num of shares (m)
                                                                                                                                    mber                                      12.93
Tar gearing (D/E) % K
  rget                           0%                       Financial assets (t
                                                                            treasury stock)                 1.1                   Fai r Value per share (EUR)                 15.0
% Ke                            100%                      Enterprise value (EUR m)
                                                                         e                                176.4                   Price (EUR)
                                                                                                                                      e                                       11.96
WA
 ACC                            12.5%                                                                                             Pote
                                                                                                                                     ential upside (downs
                                                                                                                                                        side)                  26%
Sou
  urce: ESN Bankia Bollsa estimates

GO
 OWEX. Multip
            ples                                                                      GOWE Sensitivit analysis
                                                                                         EX.        ty
     Ratios @ current Price           2010    2011     2012 2013e 201
                                                           2e        14e                      WAACC                             Perpet ual growth rate (g
                                                                                                                                                        g)
     Price                               4
                                       3.4     4.8      12.0 12.0 12.0                            15.03       1.0%           1.5%          2.0%         2.5%
                                                                                                                                                        2           3.0%
                                                                                              10
                                                                                               0.5%           17.5           18.3          19.1         20.0
                                                                                                                                                        2           21.1
     EV / Sales                       0.6xx   0.6x      1.4x  1.1x   9x
                                                                   0.9
                                                                                              11
                                                                                               1.5%           15.6           16.2          16.8         17.6
                                                                                                                                                        1           18.4
     EV / EBITDA                      3.1xx   2.4x      5.2x  4.3x 3.3
                                                                     3x                       12
                                                                                               2.5%           14.1           14.5          15.0         15.6
                                                                                                                                                        1           16.2
     EV / EBIT                        4.7xx   4.2x      6.8x  6.0x 4.9
                                                                     9x                       13
                                                                                               3.5%           12.8           13.1          13.5         14.0
                                                                                                                                                        1           14.5
     PER                              7.5xx   8.6x     10.11x 9.1x 7.5
                                                                     5x                       15
                                                                                               5.5%           10.7           11.0          11.3         11.6
                                                                                                                                                        1           11.9

Sou
  urce: ESN Bankia B
                   Bolsa estimates                                                    Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates




                                                                                                                                                                Page 5
GOWEX




Multip compa
     ples  arison
Althouugh there is no purely comparab compan with GOW
                  s         y,          ble        ny           WEX (due to its particu
                                                                           t          ular
busines model, diversificatio etc), wit
       ss                   on          thin Wi-Fi/W
                                                   Wireless, theere are two listed Wi-Fi
                                                                            o
companies in the United Stat tes that agg
                                        gregate opeerators’ netw
                                                               work to offer roaming aand
interconnection ser
                  rvices.
-    Booingo: >500.000 hotspots world-wide began trading in May 2
                                s            e,                         2011 in the Nasdaq. Boin
                                                                                     N          ngo
                                ervice provider, offering retail clients (final users) and wholesale
     is a international, Wi-Fi se
        an                                                r
     clie
        ents access service to W
                    s          Wi-Fi points. In 2011, the company gen
                                              n           c              nerated USD D95m revenuues
     and USD28m in EBITDA.
        d           n
-    iPa
       ass: 750,00 hotspots in 120 co
                   00                             ffers mobile connectivit services to
                                       ountries. Of          e           ty
     bus
       sinesses. In 2011, iPa
                   n         ass generated USD140 revenues (falling 9%) and sm
                                                  0m          s         9          mall
     ope
       erating losse with EBIT
                   es,       TDA of USD.0,2m.
Boingo trades at an EV/EB
      o          t          BITDA’13e of 5.2x vs. GOWEX’ 4
                                       o                      4.3x. At our fair value of
EUR155/share (imp
                plying 5.5x E
                            EV/EBITDA’113e), the dis          GOWEX vs. Boingo would
                                                    scount on G
disappe in terms of EV/EBI
      ear        s          ITDA (but not P/E). During the las 6 months, GOWEX h
                                       n                      st                     has
accumulated 94%, much better than Boingo /iPass’ -30%
                            r          o            %.
     Com
       mpany            Price Mkt. C
                                   Cap.   EV/EBITDA
                                                  A    PER        Mg EBITDDA     Performance %
                        (EUR) (EUR m)     2012e 201
                                                  13e 2012e 20
                                                             013e   2012e       1m 6m       12m
     Boin Wireless Inc. 5.32
        ngo                     1877       6.2x 5.2x 31.6x 244.4x   30.9%      -6% -31% -16%
                                                                                        %
     iPas Inc.
        ss                       84                         20
                                                             0.0x              -5% -30% 30%
                                                                                        %
     Gow (Bankia)
        wex             11.96   1866       5.2x 4.3x 10.1x 9.1x     26.2%       2% 94% 166%
                                                                                        %
     Gow (Factset)
        wex             11.96   1866       6.4x 4.5x 12.0x 100.5x   25.1%      2% 94% 166%
                                                                                        %
     Sour Facset, Bankiia Bolsa
        rce:


Sector Wi-Fi & M&A
               M
Wi-Fi: counter-cyyclical charaacter and greater visib
                                         g            bility. In rec cent months a number of
                                                                               s
operations has take place, inc
                  en         creasing the Wi-Fi sector’s visibility:
                                          W
    1) A
       Agreement between Goo
                 b         ogle and Bo
                                     oingo in San Francisco w
                                                            with a model similar to th
                                                                                     hat
       used by GOW
       u         WEX.
    2) A
       Argiva (engin
                   neering firm) acquiring Spectrum Inte
                               )           S           eractive (one of the large hotspot W
                                                                    e             est       Wi-
       Fi
       F suppliers in UK) for GB
                   i           BP26m (with the intention of renting it to other operators).
                                           h           n             t
    3) E          quiring Belair Networks (indoor and outdoor Wi-Fii equipment).
       Ericsson acq            r
    4) L
       Listing of Ruckus (Wi-Fi t
                                technology manufacturer on NYSE w high dem
                                           m          r)        with     mand.
M&A. Since its lis sting to the MAB, GOW   WEX mention ned the pos  ssible interes on behalf of
                                                                                 st         f
engineering firms, although this has not bee reflected in acquisition The cash obtained fro
                    a          s            en                       ns.         h           om
the rights issues and cash ge
                   a           eneration has been used to accelera the com
                                            s           d            ate        mpany’s orgaanic
growth (co-investm ment formulas with cities, demanding higher Cap
                                s                       g            pEx, etc). On the contra
                                                                                            ary,
we see greater probabilities of GOWEX being a ta
       e                                    X           arget (telecoommunicatio operators or
                                                                                 on
companies in other sectors inte
                    r           erested in gr
                                            rowing inorganically, dev
                                                                    veloping its presence in t
                                                                                 p           the
Wi-Fi ssector). In th recent br
                    he          rochure on the rights is
                                                       ssue, GOWE mentions Google as a
                                                                    EX           s           s
threat, but at the same time mention hav     ving spoken to the com
                                                       n            mpany to wo together in
                                                                                 ork        r
differen geographic areas.
       nt           c




                                                                                           Page 6
GOWEX




                           Poten value creation via the expansion plan
                               ntial   c          a
                           GOWE is a valu generatin story, via a business model with high retu
                                EX         ue           ng          a           s           h          urn on capi  ital
                           employyed (>20%). Independe ntly of the aforementioned revised e
                                            .                       a                       estimates, we have carried
                                                                                                       w
                           out an analysis on the pote
                                n          o            ential genera
                                                                    ation of value proceed ing from ac  ccelerating t
                                                                                                                    the
                           company’s growth during the fo
                                            d           ollowing year and the rig
                                                                    rs          ghts issue.
                           In our opinion, the successfu executio of the ex
                                              e           ul          on           xpansion p   plan (to 300 cities, deta
                                                                                                           0             ails
                           according to the company’s st
                                             c             trategy inclu
                                                                       uding outdo advertisin company not disclos
                                                                                  oor            ng        y            sed
                           yet), in addition to the posit
                                  n           t           tive strategic implication (to obta in critical mass, GOWEX
                                                                       c           ns                      m
                           occupyying a leading position w
                                                         world-wide in developmen  nt/exploitatio of Wi-Fi cities, defens
                                                                                                on                      sive
                           moves vs. possib peers/ne entrants) could ad another EUR10-12/
                                             ble         ew            ),         dd                       /share to o  our
                           valuati (see tab below)
                                  ion        ble
                           Our hy ypothesis are: 1) develoopment of 300 cities in the next 5 ye
                                                                                  t                       17e, exceeding
                                                                                               ears (2013-1
                           the 3 y
                                 years targete by GOWE
                                             ed           EX); 2) EBIT margin from 17% in 20
                                                                     T            m           013e down to 12% in 20
                                                                                                          t          018
                           (vs. EB mg of 20% in 2012
                                  BIT       2            2e); 3) Capit expenditu of 16-18 o/sales in the years of
                                                                      tal         ure         8%
                           further expansion; 4) Rights is sue: EUR 30 M cash an issuance of 2.59 m shares (20% of
                                                                                  nd                      s         %
                           current number of shares, tota shares afte capital inc
                                  t                      al          er          crease of 15 .5m); 5) cap
                                                                                                         pture of 50% of
                                                                                                                    %
                           revenues generated in geoloca lized advertis
                                              d                       sing (50% caaptured by th strategic partner).
                                                                                              he          p



GOWEX EXPANSI ON PLAN - DCF V
G                           VALUATION TO                       31-
                                                                 -Dec-13
CASH FLOW (EUR m)
C                  R                                             2013e
                                                                 2           20014e        20115e         20166e           2017e           2018e e
New
N Cities                                                           60          80
                                                                               8             80             50
                                                                                                             0               30               0
Cumulated Cities
C                                                                  60         140
                                                                              1             2220           2700             300             300
Net
N sales                                                          113.7
                                                                 1           2116.0        3011.2         329.3            343.88          318.4
 Network (Roaming access, offloadin maintenance)
                   g,                ng,                          53.7
                                                                  5          1222.6        1888.7         226..8           246.88          241.9
 Engineering, Cons sultancy & Maintenance                         48.0
                                                                  4           64.0
                                                                              6            644.0           40.0
                                                                                                              0             24.0             0.0
 Media (Advertising aplications, servic
                   g,                ices                         12.0        29.4
                                                                              2            488.5           62.5
                                                                                                              5             72.9            76.6
EBIT
E                                                                 19.3        34.6
                                                                              3             455.2          46.1             44.7
                                                                                                                               7            38.2
% EBIT mg                                                         17%         16%           15
                                                                                             5%            14%%             13%             12%
NOPLAT
N                                                                 13.5        24.2
                                                                              2             311.6          32.3             31.3
                                                                                                                               3            26.7
Depreciations and o
D                  other provisions                               -9.1       -117.3        -244.1         -26..3           -27.55          -25.5
Gross operating c
G                  cash flow                                      22.6        41.5
                                                                              4             555.7          58.6             58.8
                                                                                                                               8            52.2
Capital expenditure
C                                                                -18.2
                                                                 -           -338.9        -544.2         -49..4           -44.77          -25.5
Cash flow to be d
C                 discounted                                       4.4         2.6
                                                                               2             1.
                                                                                              .5            9.2
                                                                                                              2             14.1            26.7
DCF
D VALUATION (EUR m)                                              2013e
                                                                 2           20
                                                                              014e         20115e         20166e          2017e         Nominal y
                                                                                                                                                year
WACC
W                                                                12.5%       12
                                                                              2.5%         12.5%          12.5
                                                                                                             5%           12.5%%          12.5%
Discount Rate factor
D                  r                                              1.00        0.89
                                                                              0             0.7
                                                                                              79           0.70            0.62
                                                                                                                              2            0.55
Discounted cash flow
D                  w                                               4.4         2.3
                                                                               2            1..2           6.55             8.8
Cumulated DCF
C                                                                  4.4         6.7
                                                                               6            7..9           14.4               2
                                                                                                                           23.2
WACC & DCF ANA
W                  ALISYS
Free
F risk rate                   4.50%          Cummulated DCF                         23.2              - Net finan debt (Cash) ( 12e)
                                                                                                                ncial                                -30
Company risk factor
C                  r            2.00         Perp
                                                petual growth rate (g)
                                                                    e              0.0%
Market risk premium
M                  m          4.00%          Normmalised Annual CF                    27
Cost of Equity (Ke)
C                             12.50%%        Term Value at Nomin Year
                                                minal               nal             214
Cost
C of debt (gross)  )           5.0%          Disc.Rate of Terminal V
                                                                   Value            0.55
Normative tax rate
N                             30.0%          NPV Terminal Value                   118.7               Equity Ma
                                                                                                              arket Value (EUR m
                                                                                                                               m)                    172
Cost of Debt Net (Kd)
C                              3.50%                                                                  Number o shares (m)
                                                                                                              of                                     15.5
Target gearing (D/E % K
T                  E)           0%           Finan assets (treasury stock)
                                                 ncial                                                Fair Val per share (E
                                                                                                             lue          EUR)                   11.1
% Ke                           100%          Ente
                                                erprise value (EUR m)
                                                                 R                141.9
WACC
W                              12.5%
Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates
S




                                                                                                                                       Page 7
GOWEX




Risks & Threats
We poi out the following risks
     int                     s:
   1) Execution of strategy plan (x5 vs. current citie not attain
                          y                          es),       ning the critic mass.
                                                                              cal
   2) New entra ants: GOWE business model is un
                            EX’                        nique (neutra positioning technological
                                                                   al          g,
                 apturing vari ous parts of the value ch
      platform, ca                                     hain), howeve it could be copied.
                                                                    er         e
   3) Position of telecom o
                   f            operators (t
                                           that could become dire competito
                                                      b          ect          ors). Althouggh,
      initially trad
                   ditional opera
                                ators see GO
                                           OWEX as a threat, they can use the company as a s
      partner to save operatin costs by extending the network/u
                   s            ng         e          eir        users, thus finally achieve a
                                                                                           e
      complemen    ntary charactter.
   4) Position in cities/muunicipals: not renewing contracts. In our view said playe
                                                                            w,           ers
      consider GOWEX a n
                G          neutral infrastructure manager that gives supp    port to vario
                                                                                         ous
      operators and as a way to reduce costs/maximise profits, ra
                a          y           c                        ather than a threat.
                                                                             t
   5) Key personnel (depen
                         ndence on its CEO, Mr. Jenaro García
                                     s                      a);
   6) Risk of obsolescence technology network se
                         e          y,         ecurity.




                                                                                  Page 8
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012

More Related Content

What's hot

RR Donnelley 2002AR
RR Donnelley  2002ARRR Donnelley  2002AR
RR Donnelley 2002ARfinance23
 
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureT.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureSASLtd
 
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureT.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureSASLtd
 
Guild Quality Ch+D
Guild Quality Ch+DGuild Quality Ch+D
Guild Quality Ch+Dpaiges21476
 
100 Year Dow Chart
100 Year Dow Chart100 Year Dow Chart
100 Year Dow Chartecaputo
 

What's hot (7)

RR Donnelley 2002AR
RR Donnelley  2002ARRR Donnelley  2002AR
RR Donnelley 2002AR
 
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureT.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
 
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications BrochureT.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
T.E.R.C Group (Solar Advanced Systems) Commercial Applications Brochure
 
The Worlds 100 Richest Hedge Funds Feb 2012
The Worlds 100 Richest Hedge Funds Feb 2012The Worlds 100 Richest Hedge Funds Feb 2012
The Worlds 100 Richest Hedge Funds Feb 2012
 
Guild Quality Ch+D
Guild Quality Ch+DGuild Quality Ch+D
Guild Quality Ch+D
 
Employer Branding
Employer BrandingEmployer Branding
Employer Branding
 
100 Year Dow Chart
100 Year Dow Chart100 Year Dow Chart
100 Year Dow Chart
 

Similar to GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012

Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen ASPresentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen ASSpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
 
public serviceenterprise group EEIConference
public serviceenterprise group EEIConferencepublic serviceenterprise group EEIConference
public serviceenterprise group EEIConferencefinance20
 
102604EEIConference
102604EEIConference102604EEIConference
102604EEIConferencefinance20
 
Emmar properties equity report
Emmar properties equity reportEmmar properties equity report
Emmar properties equity reportkizashianalytics
 
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Angel Broking
 
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Angel Broking
 
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINALfinance20
 
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINALfinance20
 

Similar to GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012 (8)

Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen ASPresentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
Presentation Q1-2012 - English version - SpareBank 1 Gruppen AS
 
public serviceenterprise group EEIConference
public serviceenterprise group EEIConferencepublic serviceenterprise group EEIConference
public serviceenterprise group EEIConference
 
102604EEIConference
102604EEIConference102604EEIConference
102604EEIConference
 
Emmar properties equity report
Emmar properties equity reportEmmar properties equity report
Emmar properties equity report
 
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
 
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010
 
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
 
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
021407_Investor_Meeting_FINAL
 

More from gowex

Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013gowex
 
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13gowex
 
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC   feb 2013Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC   feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC feb 2013gowex
 
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012gowex
 
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012gowex
 
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012gowex
 
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012gowex
 

More from gowex (7)

Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by NFINANCE feb 2013
 
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - feb 13
 
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC   feb 2013Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC   feb 2013
Gowex coverage analysis by Aurel BGC feb 2013
 
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012
GOWEX Análisis de Cobertura de AFI / Oct 2012
 
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012
Let´s GOWEX - Boletín del accionista - octubre 2012
 
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by Aurel BGC sept 2012
 
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012
GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - July 2012
 

Recently uploaded

cost of capital questions financial management
cost of capital questions financial managementcost of capital questions financial management
cost of capital questions financial managementtanmayarora23
 
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...Amil baba
 
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...Amil baba
 
Managing Finances in a Small Business (yes).pdf
Managing Finances  in a Small Business (yes).pdfManaging Finances  in a Small Business (yes).pdf
Managing Finances in a Small Business (yes).pdfmar yame
 
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...Amil baba
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintSuomen Pankki
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Sonam Pathan
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证rjrjkk
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...Amil baba
 
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance LeaderThe Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance LeaderArianna Varetto
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办fqiuho152
 
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...Amil baba
 
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Sonam Pathan
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Champak Jhagmag
 
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGeckoCoinGecko
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)ECTIJ
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economiccinemoviesu
 
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptx
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptxFinancial Preparation for Millennia.pptx
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptxsimon978302
 
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfKempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfHenry Tapper
 

Recently uploaded (20)

cost of capital questions financial management
cost of capital questions financial managementcost of capital questions financial management
cost of capital questions financial management
 
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...
NO1 Certified Amil Baba In Lahore Kala Jadu In Lahore Best Amil In Lahore Ami...
 
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...
NO1 Certified Black Magic Specialist Expert In Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot,...
 
Managing Finances in a Small Business (yes).pdf
Managing Finances  in a Small Business (yes).pdfManaging Finances  in a Small Business (yes).pdf
Managing Finances in a Small Business (yes).pdf
 
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
Uae-NO1 Black Magic Specialist In Lahore Black magic In Pakistan Kala Ilam Ex...
 
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraintGovernor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
 
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
 
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
原版1:1复刻温哥华岛大学毕业证Vancouver毕业证留信学历认证
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
 
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance LeaderThe Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
 
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...
Uae-NO1 Kala Jadu specialist Expert in Pakistan kala ilam specialist Expert i...
 
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
 
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
 
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptx
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptxFinancial Preparation for Millennia.pptx
Financial Preparation for Millennia.pptx
 
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdfKempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
Kempen ' UK DB Endgame Paper Apr 24 final3.pdf
 

GOWEX coverage analysis by BANKIA - Dec 2012

  • 1. GOWE G EX Spa Telecomm ain/ munications C Company update Inv vestment Research Re eason: Estimat Revision tes 5 Decem mber 2012 Bu uy Growth a acceleratin seekin global s ng: ng scale Reco ommendation un nchanged Sha price: EU are UR 11.98 Despite the re ecently good performance (+165% during the last 12m at current market p ( g m), closing price as of 04/12/2012 g 2 price, GOWE trades at EV/EBITDA’13e 4.3x and P/E’13e 9.1x, that in ou view EX d ur Tar rget price: E EUR 15.00 does not refl lect the comppany’s growth (CAGR’11-1 +33% in sales, +36% E 14e s EBITDA from Target Price: EU m UR 10.70 and +42% ne profit), its fin et nancial health and positive ttrack-record. In our view, G GOWEX Reuter rs/Bloomberg will continue generating vaalue thanks to its scalable business mo o odel and its strategic GOW.MC/GOW SQ positioning, w which allows capturing value generated in various points of the Wi-Fi d e Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 11,203 sector’s value chain. e Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 m (m) mth 0.08 Price high 12 mth (EUR) ) 12.70  The inteention behind the rights issue announ d i nced (of up to EUR30m, 20% of t Price low 12 mth (EUR) 4.46 current s shares) is douuble, in line with the operattions carried out in 2010-2011: 1) w o Abs. perf. 1 mth 2.0% Acceleraation of orgaanic growth: capture funds to finance its expansion s c s s strategy Abs. perf. 3 mth 77.5% (to 300 o the largest cities world-wide, via a strattegic agreeme with a part of c ent tner); 2) Abs. perf. 12 mth 165.6% Increase the shareho e older base and stock liqu uidity: Follow wing the rights issue, s Market capitalisation (E EURm) 155 the free float will inc crease from current 30% to 41%. On nce the opera ation is Curre N° of shares (m) ent 13 complete GOWEX will request the SEC approva to issue ADRs (level 1 OT ed, w e al TC). Free float 30%  Good re esults momentum and st trong financiial position. At 6m’12, re evenues Key financials (EUR) 12/11 122/12e 12/13e increased 60%, EBIT d TDA +62% an net profit 70% (to EUR nd R5.5m). The relative Sales (m) 67 100 122 weight of the internatio f onal activity co ontinues grow wing, at 1H’12 reaching 51% of the % EBITD (m) DA 17 26 32 total sale (vs. 30% in 2011), as well as recurre revenues (65% of the to es n ent ( otal). At EBITD margin DA 24.8% 266.2% 26.2% EBIT ( (m) 10 20 23 June 20 012, GOWEX accumulates EUR19m n s net cash (EU UR32m gross). Said EBIT m margin 14.2% 200.2% 18.7% financial position is one of the com mpany’s stron points, as it can negotiate co- ng Net Pr (adj.)(m) rofit 7 15 17 investme ent agreemen nts with mun nicipalities an transport companies i new nd in ROCE E 44.5% 57.8% 41.0% countries (including exclusivity, lo s e onger term co contracts etc.) and reinfor ) rces its Net deebt/(cash) (m) (22) (19) (18) Net De Equity ebt -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 capacity to continue grrowing organic cally. Net De ebt/EBITDA -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 Int. co over(EBITDA/Fin.int) (125.8) (144.7) (213.3)  Estimate revised up We have made some ad es p: m djustments, no including the rights ot e EV/Sa ales 0.6 1.4 1.1 issue. In 2013-14e, our EBITDA rises 11%, with revenues accelerating fo h a ollowing EV/EB BITDA 2.4 5.2 4.3 the receently announcced contracts We estima s. ate CAGR 20 011-14e of 333% in EV/EB BITDA (adj.) 2.4 5.2 4.3 revenues 36% in EBITDA and 42% in net profi with wireless, internation and s, % fit, nal EV/EB BIT 4.2 6.7 6.0 P/E (adj.) 8.6 10.1 9.1 recurrent revenues pro t creasing their weight on tota revenues. ogressively inc al P/BV 1.8 3.1 2.3 OpFC yield CF 45.9% 1.3% -1 0.9%  Valuatio revised to EUR15.0/sh on o hare (+40%), arising from the aforementioned Divide yield end 0.6% 1.4% 1 1.6% adjustme ents to our est timates, the ro cember 2013, and applying a lower oll-over to Dec EPS (a adj.) 0.56 1.18 1.32 WACC ( (12.5% vs. 14 4.5%), accordding to the p positive track record, the greater BVPS 2.72 3.90 5.21 liquidity aand financial strength. Our new fair valu discounts EV/EBITDA’13 5.5x ue E 3e DPS 0.08 0.17 0.20 and P/E’ 13e 11.5x, im mplying a potential of +26% over current price. Its mai peer, % in Boingo ( (US Wi-Fi agg gregator) trades at an EV//EBITDA’13e of 5.2x and P P/E’13e 24.4x, v vs. GOWEX’ EV/EBITDA’13e of 4.3x and P/E’13e of x 9.1x Buy x. 13 vvdsvdvsdy 12 recomm endation reit terated 11 10  We belie the succes eve ssful execution of the exppansion plan (to 300 cities, details , 9 8 not discl osed yet), in addition to the positive s strategic impplications (to obtain o 7 6 critical m mass, occupyin a leading position world ng elopment/exploitation d-wide in deve 5 4 of Wi-Fi cities, defenssive move vs possible ne entrants), could add a s. ew another 3 Nov 11 Dec D 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 2 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Se 12 ep Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 EUR10-1 12/share to ou FV. ur GOWEX G MAB (Rebased) Source: Factse et eholders: Jenaro Ga Share arcía 60%; Alvasebi 10%; Analyst(s): Da avid Cabeza Ja areño +3 91 4367818 34 dcabeza@b bankia.com For co ompany description ple ease see summary tab footnote ble Produced by: d All ESN re esearch is availlable on Bloom mberg (“ESNR””), Thomson- -Reuters, Capit IQ, TheMark tal kets.com, FactS Set Distribute by the Members of ESN ed (see last pag of this report) ge
  • 2. GOWEX CO ONTENTS S Grow accelerating ....... .................. wth .................................... ........................ 3  Details of the rights issue 3  Good results momen ntum and news flow. Estimate adjusted. s es 4  Valu uation.......................... .................. ........................ 5  .................................... DCF V Valuation: EUR R15.0/share 5  Multip comparison ples n 6  Secto Wi-Fi & M&A or 6  Poten value creat via the exp ntial tion pansion plan 7  Risks & Threats 8  GOW WEX. At a Glance ...... .................. G ........................ 9  .................................... Wi-F sector. Complemen mobile networks ................... Fi C nts ...................... 10  WEX’ Position ............ .................. GOW ...................... 11  .................................... ESN Recomme N endation Sy ystem ....... ...................... 18  .................................... Pag 2 ge
  • 3. GOWEX Grow acce wth elerating g The int tention behin the rights issue announced (of up to EUR30m which is 20% above t nd s p m, 2 the current shares) is double: 1) accelerate the organic growth sp t c peed and 2) increase tthe shareholder base, in line wit the opera th ations carried out in 20 10 and 2011. Despite t the recently good perfformance (+1165% during the last 12 g 2m), at curre market price, GOWEX ent trades at EV/EBIT TDA’13e 4.3 and P/E’13e 9.1x, th in our v 3x hat view does not reflect t n the compa any’s growth (CAGR’11 1-14e +33% in sales, +336% EBITDA and +42% net profit), its A financial health (n cash) and positive tr net d rack-record. In our vview, GOWE will contin generating value tha EX nue anks to its sc calable busin ness model aand its stra ategic positio oning, which allows the company to capture v h e value genera ated in varioous points of the Wi-Fi sector’s valu chain. We have adjus ue sted our estiimates and valuation up by v +40% to EUR15.0/ /share, whic discounts multiples of 5.5x EV/ ch s V/EBITDA’13e and P/E’1 13e 11.5x and implies a 26% up pside potential at curren market pr nt rice. Buy re ecommendation reiterat ted, and we believe the successful execution of the expa l ansion plan (to 300 cities, n details not disclose yet), in a ed addition to th positive strategic imp he s plications (to obtain critical o mass, occupying a leading po osition world d-wide in de evelopment/e exploitation of Wi-Fi cities, defensive move vs. possible ne entrants), could add another EUR . ew R10-12/share to our FV. e Details of the rights issue s GOWE is immersed in its third rights issue in three yea The first was due to its listing to t EX d e ars. t the MAB (SSpanish Alte ernative Mark ket, March 2010, at EUR 2 R3.5/share; oobtaining EU UR6m); and t the second in July 2011 (EUR6.9 at EUR4 d 9m 4.84/share). The current rights issue is for a to e otal maximum of EUR3 30m, at EURR11.6/share (2,586m sha ares) and im mplies 20% over the curre o ent numbe of shares trading. There are two rea er re asons behind this rights iissue: d 1) Capture fund to financ its expansion strateg Said plan includes th deployme C ds ce gy. n he ent and implementation of its services (d s design, deplo oyment, explloitation and manageme d ent of Wi-Fi netw works) in 300 of the larg 0 gest, referen cities w nce world-wide, via a strateg gic agreement with a partner which impl r antial effort iin Capex. Th intention is lies a substa he ambitious, as it implies m s multiplying th company's presence by 5x (curre he ently 60 citie es, with w a smaller average siz r ze). 2) Endow its valuation w E v with greater liquidity and increase its share e eholder bas se. Reference sh R hareholders a not expe are ected to subscribe the ne rights iss ew sue. We reca all th the exec hat cutive team currently hoolds 59.6% (including 100.6% of Alvasebi, >70% %). Following th rights iss F he sue, free flo will incr oat rease from current 29.7% to 41.4% %, le eaving 49.7% in the han % nds of the executive tea and 8.9% in Alvaseb e am % bi’s. Once th he operation is completed, G c GOWEX will request the SEC appro e oval to issue ADRs (lev vel 1 OTC). The schedule to begin trading in the US is 1Q’13 (cur g rrently the co ompany trade es in the Spanish MAB and N n h NYSE Alternext in Paris). . GOW WEX. Shareho older’s base (post operatio on) GOW WEX. Agenda for the rights issue f s Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa a Source:: GOWEX Page 3
  • 4. GOWEX Good results mo omentum a news flow. Estima adjuste and ates ed.  Goood 6m’12 results, inc creasing int ternational exposure a and recurre results. At ent 6mm’12, revenue increased 60%, EBIT es d TDA +62% and net prof 70% (to EUR5.5m). T a fit E The rela ative weight of the intern ational activity continues growing, at 1H’12 reach s hing 51% of t the tota sales (vs. 30% in 2011 as well as recurrent re al 1), s evenues (65% of the tota % al).  Poositive news flow conti s inues: GOW WEX continues announc cing agreemeents with cit ties and transport companies. T most rec d c The cent were: 1) in Dubai, in which GOW WEX has signned an agreement with the ma public transport comp ain pany (PTA) t provide free Wi-Fi in t to the cities’ busses. The agreem ment is strate egically impo opens a door to the Middle ortant as it o East; 2) in Ma arseille, sign ning an agreeement to pr rovide free W Wi-Fi to urb ban buses. WWe exppect announcements on new internat tional contrac to continu in upcoming months. cts ue  Str rong financ cial position At June 2012, GOW n: WEX accum mulates EUR R19m net ca ash (EU UR32m gros Said fina ss). ancial positio is one of the compan on ny’s strong points, as it c can neg gotiate co-in nvestment aggreements with municipa w alities and tr mpanies in new ransport com cou untries (inclu uding exclus acts etc.) and reinforces its capacity to sivity, longer term contra d y ntinue growin organicallly. con ng  Estimates revised up: We have made some adjustments, not including th rights issu e e t he ue. In 2013-14e, our EBITDA rises 11%, with revenu accelera o ues ating followin the recen ng ntly annnounced conntracts. We e estimate CAGR 2011-14 of 33% in revenues, 36% in EBITDA 4e 3 and 42% in ne profit, with wireless, international and recurre revenues progressiv d et h i ent s vely inc creasing their respective w r weight. GOW WEX. 1H’12 res sults. 9m’12 f forecasts GOWEX. Est timates adjus sted (2012-14e e) (EUR m) 9m12 3T12 1H 11 1H12 Var % 2 2011a 2012e 201 13e 2014e CAG 11-14e AGR Revenues 69.1 28.1 25.7 41.0 60% 0 Old 66.77 94.5 1177.0 145.0 30% Telecom 6.6 9.1 38% Sales New 66.77 99.9 1222.4 155.3 33% Wireless 19.1 31.9 67% 9 Dif.% 0.0%% 5.7% 4.6 6% 7.1% Old 16.55 23.7 29 9.5 36.1 30% Gross Margin 30.5 12.7 10.7 17.8 66% 8 EBITDAA New 16.55 26.1 32 2.0 41.2 36% Gross Mg % 44% 45% 42% 43% 1.5pp % Dif.% 0.0%% 10.2% 8.5 5% 14.3% EBITDA 15.7 7.6 5.0 8.1 62% Old 7.2 12.8 15 5.1 20.0 40% EBITDA Mg % E 22.7% 27.1% 19.5% 19.7% 0.2pp % Net Proffit New 7.2 15.3 16 6.9 20.8 42% EBIT 4.6 7.6 68% Dif.% 0.0%% 19.4% 12.2 2% 3.8% EBIT Mg E 17.8% 18.6% 0.9pp % Old 10.77 16.1 17 7.5 18.8 21% BAI 4.6 7.8 70% Cap ex New 10.77 18.0 22 2.0 27.9 38% Net Profit 3.2 5.5 70% Dif.% 0.0%% 11.7% 25.9 9% 48.7% GOW WEX. EBITDA margin perfo ormance GOWEX. ND/ /EBITDA 180 0 30% Sales EBITDA mg 26.2% 26.6% 160 0 26.2% 155.3 0.00 0.00 09 10 11 12e 13e 14e 24.8% 25% -0.10 -0.20 140 0 122.4 -0.20 -0.40 120 0 18.9% 99.9 20% -0.30 -0.60 100 0 -0.80 15.7% -0.40 80 0 66.7 -1.00 49.6 15% -0.50 -1.20 60 0 35.2 -0.60 40 0 9.5% -1.40 10% 24.2 -0.70 -1.60 20 0 0 5% Gear ring Debt/EBITDA (rhs) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa a Source: ESN Bank Bolsa kia Page 4
  • 5. GOWEX Valu uation DCF V Valuation: EUR15.0/sh E hare Valuation revised to EUR15.0 0/share (+40%), arising from the afor rementioned adjustments to s our es stimates, the roll-over to December 2013, and applying a lower WAC (12.5% vs. e o r CC 14.5%) according to the positiv track reco the grea liquidity and financia strength. O ), ve ord, ater al Our new fa value discounts EV/E air EBITDA’13e 5.5x and P/ e /E’13e 11.5x x. We ha ave carried out a disco unted cash flow valua o h ation on 20 013-1018e, applying 12.5 a 5% WACC and 2.0% “g”. We a C assume an EBITDA ma argin in 201 8e (23%) below the 26 b 6% estimat for 2012-14e, and CA ted APEX for 20 018e of 8% over sales, in line with the amortisatio o n e ons in said year. GO OWEX DCF VALUA ATION TO 31-Dec-13 CA FLOW STATE ASH EMENT FOR DCF CA FLOW (EUR m ASH m) 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2 20 018e Net sales t 66.7 99.9 122.4 155.3 191.3 217.4 250.9 2 2443.7 EBIT 9.5 20.2 22.9 28.1 31.2 32.5 35.4 37.7 3 OPLAT NO 7.1 15.1 16.9 20.8 23.1 23.7 25.5 27.2 2 Dep preciations and othe provisions er -7.0 -5.9 -9.1 -13.2 -17.1 -20.9 -24.5 -1 19.5 Gro operating cas flow oss sh 14.1 21.1 26.1 34.0 40.2 44.6 50.0 46.7 4 Cap expenditure pital -10.7 -18.0 -22.0 -27.9 -26.8 -26.1 -25.1 -1 19.5 Cha ange in net working capital g 0.0 -5.2 -2.7 -4.5 -5.2 -3.0 -4.3 -0.2 - Cas flow to be disc sh counted 3.5 -2.1 1.3 1.5 8.3 15.5 20.7 26.9 2 DCF VALUATION (EU m) UR 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2 Nominal year WA ACC 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 1 12 2.5% Discount Rate factor 1.00 0.89 0.79 0.70 0.62 0.55 0 Discounted cash flow 1.3 1.3 6.5 10.9 12.9 Cu mulated DCF 1.3 2.6 9.1 20.0 32.9 WA & DCF ANAL ISYS ACC Fre risk rate ee 4.50% Cumulated DCF 32.9 - Ne financial debt (Cas (12e) et sh) -18 Commpany risk factor 2.00 Perpetual growt h rate (g) 2.0% - Min norities (estimated v value) 0 Market risk premium 4.00% Normalised Annua CF al 27 + As ssociates 0 Cos of Equity (Ke) st 12.50% Terminal Value at Nominal Year 257 Cos of debt (gross) st 5.0% Disc.Rate of Term Value minal 0.55 Norrmative tax rate 30.0% NPV Terminal Va alue 142.4 Equity Market Value (E m) EUR 195 Cos of Debt Net (Kd st d) 3.50% Num of shares (m) mber 12.93 Tar gearing (D/E) % K rget 0% Financial assets (t treasury stock) 1.1 Fai r Value per share (EUR) 15.0 % Ke 100% Enterprise value (EUR m) e 176.4 Price (EUR) e 11.96 WA ACC 12.5% Pote ential upside (downs side) 26% Sou urce: ESN Bankia Bollsa estimates GO OWEX. Multip ples GOWE Sensitivit analysis EX. ty Ratios @ current Price 2010 2011 2012 2013e 201 2e 14e WAACC Perpet ual growth rate (g g) Price 4 3.4 4.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 15.03 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2 3.0% 10 0.5% 17.5 18.3 19.1 20.0 2 21.1 EV / Sales 0.6xx 0.6x 1.4x 1.1x 9x 0.9 11 1.5% 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.6 1 18.4 EV / EBITDA 3.1xx 2.4x 5.2x 4.3x 3.3 3x 12 2.5% 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 1 16.2 EV / EBIT 4.7xx 4.2x 6.8x 6.0x 4.9 9x 13 3.5% 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.0 1 14.5 PER 7.5xx 8.6x 10.11x 9.1x 7.5 5x 15 5.5% 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 1 11.9 Sou urce: ESN Bankia B Bolsa estimates Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates Page 5
  • 6. GOWEX Multip compa ples arison Althouugh there is no purely comparab compan with GOW s y, ble ny WEX (due to its particu t ular busines model, diversificatio etc), wit ss on thin Wi-Fi/W Wireless, theere are two listed Wi-Fi o companies in the United Stat tes that agg gregate opeerators’ netw work to offer roaming aand interconnection ser rvices. - Booingo: >500.000 hotspots world-wide began trading in May 2 s e, 2011 in the Nasdaq. Boin N ngo ervice provider, offering retail clients (final users) and wholesale is a international, Wi-Fi se an r clie ents access service to W s Wi-Fi points. In 2011, the company gen n c nerated USD D95m revenuues and USD28m in EBITDA. d n - iPa ass: 750,00 hotspots in 120 co 00 ffers mobile connectivit services to ountries. Of e ty bus sinesses. In 2011, iPa n ass generated USD140 revenues (falling 9%) and sm 0m s 9 mall ope erating losse with EBIT es, TDA of USD.0,2m. Boingo trades at an EV/EB o t BITDA’13e of 5.2x vs. GOWEX’ 4 o 4.3x. At our fair value of EUR155/share (imp plying 5.5x E EV/EBITDA’113e), the dis GOWEX vs. Boingo would scount on G disappe in terms of EV/EBI ear s ITDA (but not P/E). During the las 6 months, GOWEX h n st has accumulated 94%, much better than Boingo /iPass’ -30% r o %. Com mpany Price Mkt. C Cap. EV/EBITDA A PER Mg EBITDDA Performance % (EUR) (EUR m) 2012e 201 13e 2012e 20 013e 2012e 1m 6m 12m Boin Wireless Inc. 5.32 ngo 1877 6.2x 5.2x 31.6x 244.4x 30.9% -6% -31% -16% % iPas Inc. ss 84 20 0.0x -5% -30% 30% % Gow (Bankia) wex 11.96 1866 5.2x 4.3x 10.1x 9.1x 26.2% 2% 94% 166% % Gow (Factset) wex 11.96 1866 6.4x 4.5x 12.0x 100.5x 25.1% 2% 94% 166% % Sour Facset, Bankiia Bolsa rce: Sector Wi-Fi & M&A M Wi-Fi: counter-cyyclical charaacter and greater visib g bility. In rec cent months a number of s operations has take place, inc en creasing the Wi-Fi sector’s visibility: W 1) A Agreement between Goo b ogle and Bo oingo in San Francisco w with a model similar to th hat used by GOW u WEX. 2) A Argiva (engin neering firm) acquiring Spectrum Inte ) S eractive (one of the large hotspot W e est Wi- Fi F suppliers in UK) for GB i BP26m (with the intention of renting it to other operators). h n t 3) E quiring Belair Networks (indoor and outdoor Wi-Fii equipment). Ericsson acq r 4) L Listing of Ruckus (Wi-Fi t technology manufacturer on NYSE w high dem m r) with mand. M&A. Since its lis sting to the MAB, GOW WEX mention ned the pos ssible interes on behalf of st f engineering firms, although this has not bee reflected in acquisition The cash obtained fro a s en ns. h om the rights issues and cash ge a eneration has been used to accelera the com s d ate mpany’s orgaanic growth (co-investm ment formulas with cities, demanding higher Cap s g pEx, etc). On the contra ary, we see greater probabilities of GOWEX being a ta e X arget (telecoommunicatio operators or on companies in other sectors inte r erested in gr rowing inorganically, dev veloping its presence in t p the Wi-Fi ssector). In th recent br he rochure on the rights is ssue, GOWE mentions Google as a EX s s threat, but at the same time mention hav ving spoken to the com n mpany to wo together in ork r differen geographic areas. nt c Page 6
  • 7. GOWEX Poten value creation via the expansion plan ntial c a GOWE is a valu generatin story, via a business model with high retu EX ue ng a s h urn on capi ital employyed (>20%). Independe ntly of the aforementioned revised e . a estimates, we have carried w out an analysis on the pote n o ential genera ation of value proceed ing from ac ccelerating t the company’s growth during the fo d ollowing year and the rig rs ghts issue. In our opinion, the successfu executio of the ex e ul on xpansion p plan (to 300 cities, deta 0 ails according to the company’s st c trategy inclu uding outdo advertisin company not disclos oor ng y sed yet), in addition to the posit n t tive strategic implication (to obta in critical mass, GOWEX c ns m occupyying a leading position w world-wide in developmen nt/exploitatio of Wi-Fi cities, defens on sive moves vs. possib peers/ne entrants) could ad another EUR10-12/ ble ew ), dd /share to o our valuati (see tab below) ion ble Our hy ypothesis are: 1) develoopment of 300 cities in the next 5 ye t 17e, exceeding ears (2013-1 the 3 y years targete by GOWE ed EX); 2) EBIT margin from 17% in 20 T m 013e down to 12% in 20 t 018 (vs. EB mg of 20% in 2012 BIT 2 2e); 3) Capit expenditu of 16-18 o/sales in the years of tal ure 8% further expansion; 4) Rights is sue: EUR 30 M cash an issuance of 2.59 m shares (20% of nd s % current number of shares, tota shares afte capital inc t al er crease of 15 .5m); 5) cap pture of 50% of % revenues generated in geoloca lized advertis d sing (50% caaptured by th strategic partner). he p GOWEX EXPANSI ON PLAN - DCF V G VALUATION TO 31- -Dec-13 CASH FLOW (EUR m) C R 2013e 2 20014e 20115e 20166e 2017e 2018e e New N Cities 60 80 8 80 50 0 30 0 Cumulated Cities C 60 140 1 2220 2700 300 300 Net N sales 113.7 1 2116.0 3011.2 329.3 343.88 318.4 Network (Roaming access, offloadin maintenance) g, ng, 53.7 5 1222.6 1888.7 226..8 246.88 241.9 Engineering, Cons sultancy & Maintenance 48.0 4 64.0 6 644.0 40.0 0 24.0 0.0 Media (Advertising aplications, servic g, ices 12.0 29.4 2 488.5 62.5 5 72.9 76.6 EBIT E 19.3 34.6 3 455.2 46.1 44.7 7 38.2 % EBIT mg 17% 16% 15 5% 14%% 13% 12% NOPLAT N 13.5 24.2 2 311.6 32.3 31.3 3 26.7 Depreciations and o D other provisions -9.1 -117.3 -244.1 -26..3 -27.55 -25.5 Gross operating c G cash flow 22.6 41.5 4 555.7 58.6 58.8 8 52.2 Capital expenditure C -18.2 - -338.9 -544.2 -49..4 -44.77 -25.5 Cash flow to be d C discounted 4.4 2.6 2 1. .5 9.2 2 14.1 26.7 DCF D VALUATION (EUR m) 2013e 2 20 014e 20115e 20166e 2017e Nominal y year WACC W 12.5% 12 2.5% 12.5% 12.5 5% 12.5%% 12.5% Discount Rate factor D r 1.00 0.89 0 0.7 79 0.70 0.62 2 0.55 Discounted cash flow D w 4.4 2.3 2 1..2 6.55 8.8 Cumulated DCF C 4.4 6.7 6 7..9 14.4 2 23.2 WACC & DCF ANA W ALISYS Free F risk rate 4.50% Cummulated DCF 23.2 - Net finan debt (Cash) ( 12e) ncial -30 Company risk factor C r 2.00 Perp petual growth rate (g) e 0.0% Market risk premium M m 4.00% Normmalised Annual CF 27 Cost of Equity (Ke) C 12.50%% Term Value at Nomin Year minal nal 214 Cost C of debt (gross) ) 5.0% Disc.Rate of Terminal V Value 0.55 Normative tax rate N 30.0% NPV Terminal Value 118.7 Equity Ma arket Value (EUR m m) 172 Cost of Debt Net (Kd) C 3.50% Number o shares (m) of 15.5 Target gearing (D/E % K T E) 0% Finan assets (treasury stock) ncial Fair Val per share (E lue EUR) 11.1 % Ke 100% Ente erprise value (EUR m) R 141.9 WACC W 12.5% Source: ESN Bankia Bolsa estimates S Page 7
  • 8. GOWEX Risks & Threats We poi out the following risks int s: 1) Execution of strategy plan (x5 vs. current citie not attain y es), ning the critic mass. cal 2) New entra ants: GOWE business model is un EX’ nique (neutra positioning technological al g, apturing vari ous parts of the value ch platform, ca hain), howeve it could be copied. er e 3) Position of telecom o f operators (t that could become dire competito b ect ors). Althouggh, initially trad ditional opera ators see GO OWEX as a threat, they can use the company as a s partner to save operatin costs by extending the network/u s ng e eir users, thus finally achieve a e complemen ntary charactter. 4) Position in cities/muunicipals: not renewing contracts. In our view said playe w, ers consider GOWEX a n G neutral infrastructure manager that gives supp port to vario ous operators and as a way to reduce costs/maximise profits, ra a y c ather than a threat. t 5) Key personnel (depen ndence on its CEO, Mr. Jenaro García s a); 6) Risk of obsolescence technology network se e y, ecurity. Page 8