Dec, 2011China Mobile Phone MarketMonthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report博思咨询公司Beijing       Hong KongJanuary,2012HU Yangjo...
a thinkbank reportSpecial edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the        ...
Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check                                                            3
…Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches                                                        4
Table of Contents    Size       Share   Product   Price   Subscriber                                                  5
Key Figures in Dec-11Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price                                      3G Sales Unit...
Market Size Summary / 2011235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011.         2011 Year to...
Monthly Market Size Development20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole yea...
3G Market Size Trend by TechnologyWCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the ...
2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-112G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value sh...
3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, N...
3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share DevelopmentNokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, howeve...
Brand Market Share TrendNokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catchin...
WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed ...
EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% un...
TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no....
2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or ...
Price Tier Development80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011. Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY  >=3000      ...
Weighted Average Retail Price Development3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher tha...
Display Size and Camera Resolution TrendBig screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phone...
Smart Phone MarketAndroid phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, ...
3G Market / Dec-1111.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G ph...
Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 ...
THINKBANK MARKET RESEARCH    MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT         博思咨询  thinkbank    +86 10 5908 1096/97/99    北京市朝阳区东...
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China mobile phone retail market dashboard report dec 2011_for public release

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China mobile phone market report, presented by thinkbank market research & consulting. Mobile phone market for the entire year of 2011.

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China mobile phone retail market dashboard report dec 2011_for public release

  1. 1. Dec, 2011China Mobile Phone MarketMonthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report博思咨询公司Beijing  Hong KongJanuary,2012HU Yangjoe@thinkbankchina.com
  2. 2. a thinkbank reportSpecial edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the trends that are shaping and will transform the future of Chinese mobile world. Presented by retail.panel
  3. 3. Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check 3
  4. 4. …Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches 4
  5. 5. Table of Contents Size Share Product Price Subscriber 5
  6. 6. Key Figures in Dec-11Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price 3G Sales Units in Dec-11 +11.0%M/M 2011 YTD M-size 11.6 Million +17.3% Y/Y Mobile phone penetration 235 Dec-11 ASP Million Dec-11 M-size +6.9%M/M 74 185 pct USD 20.5 +27.5% Y/Y Million 3G subscriber new addition in Dec-11 CM=3.2M 9.6 CU=3.5M Million CT=3.1M 6
  7. 7. Market Size Summary / 2011235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011. 2011 Year to Date Market Size // Dec, 2011 +17.3% robust growth through 2011 235 • China mobile phone retail market size witnessed rapid +17.3% growth in 2011, reached 235 million in 2011, up 17.3% y/y. It’s worthy notice that market size in 2nd half of Million units Year-on-year 2011 grew remarkably +27%, mainly driven by smartphones, which also indicates dramatic growth rate in 2012. YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology • 3G market size increased rapidly at the shrink of 2G 2G Device Market (Million) 3G Device Market (Million) market, to 128 million or 54% of total market in the entire 2011. GSM 63.3(27%) TD-SCDMA 27.6(12%) GPRS/EDGE 45.7(19%) WCDMA 49.5(21%) • WCDMA phones outperform that of TD-SCDMA & EVDO in 2011, registered 49.5 million units due to CDMA1X 19.0(8%) EVDO 30.0(13%) more diversified brands and products. While TD- SCDMA and EVDO continued to suffer from more or YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type less the same problem of weak products and limited Market Type Sales (M) Percentage % phone manufacturers. Phones with CTA(1) 235 86.3% • White-box market encountered slowing down because White-box (without CTA) 16.3 6.0% of 3G and smart phone growth. Grey market(2) 21.0 7.7% (1)CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (2)Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas. 7 ***Market size in this report are referring to CTA market size unless there is specific notation.
  8. 8. Monthly Market Size Development20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole year with 235 million units or+17.3% y/y growth. Market growth accelerated in the 2nd half of 2011, grew by +27% y/y. Total Market Size Development (2G + 3G) in millions 25 2009 2010 2011 21.8 21.9 20.1 20.5 20.5 20 19.2 19.2 19.2 18.7 18.6 17.7 17.6 15 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Market (million units) 3G Market (million units) Total Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 3G Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 20.5 +6.9 +27.5 11.6 +11.0 +122% 8
  9. 9. 3G Market Size Trend by TechnologyWCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the end of 2011. China 3G Market Size Development by Technology // 2009~Now (M units) 15 EVDO TD-SCDMA 11.6 WCDMA 11.2 10.5 10.5 3G Total 9.6 10 9.0 8.4 8.6 WCDMA 47% 7.6 7.3 6.6 y = 0.0088x2 + 0.0256x - 0.2445 6.1 R²= 0.9925 5.2 5 4.5 4.8 26% 3.7 3.7 3.6 TD-SCDMA 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.9 1.3 27% 0.6 0.9 EVDO 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9
  10. 10. 2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-112G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value share due to lower ASP of 2Gphones. 2G Market = 8.9M units 2G Market = 1.4B US$ (43% of China Market) (25% of China Market) (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X) (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X) NOKIA Nokia Samsung Samsung 18.2% 21.3% Gionee 1.5% OPPO 27.1% 26.5% OPPO 2.2% BBK 1.7% Tianyu 2.6% Gionee 2.0% BBK 3.3% Lenovo 2.6% Lenovo 4.3% Tianyu 15.7% 3.7% LG 7.1% Motorola 19.3% Motorola LG 4.7% 7.3% ZTE 11.3% DOOV 4.9% 6.0% 6.7% Others Others 10
  11. 11. 3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, Nokia still held 19.8% value share andranked #2 in 3G market. 3G Market =11.6M units 3G Market =2.4B US$ (57% of China Market) (75% of China Market) (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO) (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO) 2.5% Samsung 7.7% Samsung 2.9% 17.6% Huawei 3.8% Nokia 21.4% ZTE Apple 28.3% 2.3% NOKIA Motorola 2.6% 4.3% Lenovo Huawei 3.3% 4.3% Apple ZTE 5.0% 13.0% Coolpad 5.2% HTC HTC Coolpad 5.2% 6.3% Motorola SonyEricsson 19.8% 8.3% 11.0% SonyEricsson Lenovo 14.8% 10.4% Others Others 11
  12. 12. 3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share DevelopmentNokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, however, it seems that Samsung failed to grabthe opportunity. China local manufacturers ZTE & Huawei gained remarkable market share growth in 2011. 3G Market Top10 Brand Shares Development 100%= 6.1 6.6 7.6 7.3 8.4 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.5 11.6 100% Samsung 90% 23% 19% 19% 20% 21% 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 24% 24% Huawei 80% 9% 10% ZTE 6% 10% 11% 12% 70% 10% 11% 11% 14% 13% 5% 6% 14% NOKIA 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 60% 11% 11% 11% Lenovo 11% 11% 50% 30% 32% 26% 10% Apple 27% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 12% 15% 40% Coolpad 6% 6% 4% 5% HTC 30% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% Motorola 20% SonyEricsson 10% 18% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 15% 11% 11% Others 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 12
  13. 13. Brand Market Share TrendNokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catching up quickly. In 3Gmarket, Nokia was going down dramatically and Lenovo in particularly was growing dramatically in Q4.2G+3G Market Brand Shares Trend 3G Market Brand Shares Trend30% 10% 30% 10% Samsung Huawei Samsung Lenovo Nokia ZTE Apple Huawei Lenovo ZTE Coolpad25% Gionee 25% Nokia HTC 8% Tianyu 8% Motorola Coolpad20% 20%15% 6% 6% 15%10% 4% 4% 10% 5% 0% 2% 5% 2% Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 13
  14. 14. WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed by Nokia with 20.9% m-share &nearly 1.1 million units shipment in Dec-11. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change Coolpad, 1 Samsung 25.7% (1.9) 1397 2.4% 2 NOKIA 20.9% (5.1) 1135 SonyEricsson, Others, 3 Apple 11.0% 3.0 600 2.6% 10.5% 4 Lenovo 8.4% 1.7 457 Motorola, 5 ZTE 5.9% (0.0) 323 Samsung, 3.6% 25.7% 6 HTC 5.0% 1.0 269 7 Huawei 3.9% 1.0 210 Huawei, 3.9% 8 Motorola 3.6% (0.3) 197 HTC, 5.0% 9 SonyEricsson 2.6% 0.2 143 10 Coolpad 2.4% 1.0 130 NOKIA, ZTE, 5.9% 11 MI 1.8% 1.8 100 20.9% 12 LG 1.7% (0.6) 95 Lenovo, 13 Tianyu 1.1% (0.1) 62 8.4% Apple, 14 BlackBerry 1.0% 0.7 55 11.0% 15 Gionee 0.8% 0.1 45 16 OPPO 0.8% (0.1) 45 17 BBK 0.8% 0.4 43 18 Hisense 0.5% 0.3 27 19 CHANGHONG 0.5% 0.3 27 20 Dopod 0.3% (0.1) 18 14
  15. 15. EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% unit share, which can beattributed to a range of best selling CT customized thousand-yuan Android smart phones. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change 1 Huawei 26.3% (2.8) 836 2 Samsung 22.2% (0.9) 708 3 ZTE 7.1% (1.9) 225 4 Coolpad 6.1% (1.8) 196 5 Haier 4.0% 0.5 128 Others, 21.4% BenWee, 6 SonyEricsson 3.3% 0.3 105 2.1% Huawei, 7 HTC 2.9% (0.7) 91 26.3% 8 LG 2.4% 1.3 77 EMI, 2.1% 9 EMI 2.1% 0.9 68 10 BenWee 2.1% 0.9 68 LG, 2.4% 11 Hisense 1.9% 0.9 61 HTC, 2.9% Samsung, 12 EPHONE 1.8% 0.9 58 SonyEricsson, 22.2% 13 Motorola 1.8% (3.0) 58 Haier, 4.0% 3.3% 14 SHARP 1.3% (0.2) 41 ZTE, Coolpad, 7.1% 6.1% 15
  16. 16. TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no.1 manufacturer with 24.1% andfollowed by Lenovo with 16.5%, Huawei with 15.4%. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change 1 ZTE 24.1% 0.8 729 2 Lenovo 16.5% 1.5 500 3 Huawei 15.4% 0.5 468 Hisense, 4 Samsung 12.9% (0.1) 392 1.6% 1.4% 5 Coolpad 8.4% (1.8) 255 LG, Others, 6 Tianyu 4.2% 1.1 127 Gionee, 2.2% 10.9% 7 NOKIA 2.4% 0.1 71 Nokia, 2.4% 8 Gionee 2.2% 0.1 68 ZTE, 24.1% 9 LG 1.4% (1.3) 43 Tianyu, 4.2% 10 Hisense 1.6% (0.4) 48 11 DESAY 1.2% (0.9) 35 Coolpad, 12 Bird 1.1% (0.8) 34 8.4% Lenovo, 16.5% 13 Motorola 1.4% (0.1) 43 14 ASUS 1.3% 0.4 38 Samsung, 15 HTC 0.9% (0.1) 26 12.9% 16 Mastone 0.9% 0.1 27 Huawei, 17 Haier 0.9% 0.5 29 15.4% 18 SonyEricsson 0.7% 0.2 21 19 T-SMART 0.5% 0.1 16 20 SICT 0.4% 0.1 11 21 DELL 0.2% (0.2) 7 22 BlackBerry 0.3% 0.1 11 23 Dopod 0.2% (0.0) 8 24 Postcom 0.1% (0.1) 3 25 TCL 0.2% 0.1 6 16
  17. 17. 2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or 2.4 million units shipment in Dec-11. Dec-11 M- M-Share # Brand Sales K Share change 1 NOKIA 27.1% 0.8 2407 2 Samsung 19.3% (0.5) 1719 3 Gionee 6.7% 0.1 592 4 OPPO 6.0% 0.2 536 5 Tianyu 4.9% 0.9 437 6 BBK 4.7% 0.0 419 7 Lenovo 3.7% (0.4) 327 8 LG 2.6% (0.0) 229 Others, 21.3% 9 Motorola 2.0% 0.2 176 ZTE, 1.7% NOKIA, 10 ZTE 1.7% (0.2) 149 Motorola, 27.1% 11 Huawei 1.3% (0.2) 116 2.0% 12 Konka 1.2% (0.1) 109 LG, 2.6% 13 Bird 1.0% 0.0 93 14 DOOV 1.0% 0.0 84 Lenovo, 3.7% Samsung, 15 Philips 0.9% (0.1) 83 19.3% BBK, 4.7% 16 HOT 0.8% 0.7 74 17 Hisense 0.8% 0.1 67 Tianyu, 4.9% 18 Coolpad 0.7% 0.1 65 19 CHANGHONG 0.7% (0.2) 64 OPPO, 6.0% Gionee, 6.7% 20 Koobee 0.6% 0.0 55 21 DESAY 0.5% 0.1 46 22 AUX 0.5% 0.0 44 23 Haier 0.5% 0.0 43 24 Malata 0.5% (0.1) 42 25 HOSIN 0.4% (0.1) 38 17
  18. 18. Price Tier Development80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011. Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY >=3000 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 7.4% 7.5% 7.0% 7.2% 6.3% 8.3% 2500-2999 6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 6.8% 6.7% 7.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.5% 2000-2499 22.2% 21.4% 19.5% 19.9% 17.4% 17.6% 21.3% 21.5% 19.9% 19.9% 20.3% 21.3% 21.4% 1500-1999 1000-1499 16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 17.6% 19.7% 18.0% 18.9% 18.4% 17.8% 19.3% 16.7% 18.1% 17.3% 700-999 18.8% 17.6% 19.1% 15.2% 20.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4% 16.2% 16.8% 15.4% 17.6% 400-699 <400 26.2% 26.3% 24.1% 22.4% 23.0% 25.4% 23.9% 24.2% 27.3% 23.8% 23.9% 24.1% 24.5% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 YTD 18
  19. 19. Weighted Average Retail Price Development3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher than that of EVDO and TD-SCDMA phones. Average Retail Price Weighted by Sales Units (CNY) 4000 WCDMA EVDO TD-SCDMA 2G Overall 3G Overall 3000 2000 1000 0 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 19
  20. 20. Display Size and Camera Resolution TrendBig screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phones with >4.0 screen and >3MPor 5MP camera will be the mainstream product features in 2012. Display Size Trend / 2009~now Camera Resolution Trend / 2009~now 4% 2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 4% 9% >8MP >=5inch 9% 11% 25% 13% 8MP 16% 32% 17% 17% 45% 4-4.9inch 5MP 22% 20% 49% 15% 3MP 3-3.9inch 23% 11% 2MP 44% 30% 18% 2-2.9inch 22% 1MP 7% 21% 4% 300K 19% 19% 52% <2inch 42% None-cmr 29% 34% 33% 28% 20% 18% 2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11 2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11 20
  21. 21. Smart Phone MarketAndroid phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, almostdoubled in 2011. Smart Phone Market Size Split by OS / Smart Phone Penetration Rate 10 40% Symbian 36%36% 35% Android 33% 33% Apple 8 Microsoft 29%29% 28% 30% Others 26% 0.7 SM as % of Total 0.6 6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 20% 19% 20% 0.4 0.4 4.6 4 14% 15% 14% 0.3 2.6 3.1 4.2 13% 1.7 4.0 4.2 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 2.1 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10%10% 0.2 0.2 1.4 9% 8% 8% 9%10% 10% 0.8 0.9 10% 0.3 2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0 0% 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21
  22. 22. 3G Market / Dec-1111.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G phoneusers still keep with 2G services. 3G Subscriber Share by Operator (in million) China Total Accumulated 3G subscribers as the end of Dec-11 is 128 million Operator Dec-11 New Addition (M) Network Technology Subscriber Device CM TD-SCDMA 3.2 (33%) 3.0 (26%) Operating by CU 40, 31% 51.2, 40% CT EVDO 3.1 (32%) 3.2 (28%) Operating by CT CU WCDMA 3.5 (35%) 5.4 (46%) Operating by CMCC 36.4, 29% China Total 9.8 11.6 22
  23. 23. Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 million new additions in2011. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 128 million, i.e. 13% of total. 987 million mobile phone subscribers as the end of 2011 in China, representing the nationwide mobile phone penetration rate of 74%. Total: 199.6 million (20.5%) Total: 126 million (12.9%) 128 million • 2G: 159.6 [80%] • 2G: 89.6 [71%] • 3G: 40.0 [20%] • 3G: 36.4 [29%] Accumulated 3G subs.: 32.2M of 3G subscribers, i.e. 13% of China Accumulated 3G subs.: 51M total mobile subscribers. Total: 649.6 million (66.6%) • 2G: 598 [92%] • 3G: 51.2 [8%] Accumulated 3G subs.: 65.6M China total subscriber and 3G new addition data are quoted from MIIT; By operator data are coming from operators’ public release. 23 Please note that There is slight discrepancies with MIIT & operator data.
  24. 24. THINKBANK MARKET RESEARCH MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT 博思咨询  thinkbank +86 10 5908 1096/97/99 北京市朝阳区东四环中路远洋 +86 135-8164-7486 国际中心D座17层 joe@thinkbankchina.com P.O 100025 www.thinkbankchina.com

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