3. Security Risks:
From Big Picture to small details
Regional ?
• Regional conflicts
• Cross border insurgencies
National ?
• Political risks (policy, policing, corruption, regulation)
• Government security capabilities
Local/ Community ?
• Disenfranchised Communities
• Local disputes
• Local crime networks
4. Regional overview
• Security challenges include crime,
piracy, cross border arms
proliferation, human and illegal
drugs trafficking, illegal and
unregulated fishing
• Unlike Central , East Africa, West
African Countries interfere less in
neighbors politics, borders and
autonomy are generally respected
• Exceptional cases are Cameroon
/ Nigeria and Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire
security / border issues
• Regional response capability
through ECOWAS is delayed but
robust when eventually activated
5. Regional overview
Energy infrastructure is associated
with:
• Oil and Gas: Nigeria, Ghana,
Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire. With
Nigeria and Ghana piquing the
most interest
• Mining: Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea,
Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone
have mining industry and
infrastructure developed to
varying degrees
• Power: Transnational Power
infrastructure and deregulated
market is still in development
stage or at small scales
7. 2012 Survey:
Security Challenges Facing West Africa
Source: PCTS, COSEG, http://www.corprisk.net/
* Most PCTS members operations are located in Nigeria
Global Regional*
8. Piracy in West Africa
2012
72Attacks
17
Kidnaps
5
Fatalities
2013
116 Attacks
134
Kidnaps
20
Fatalities
12. Piracy in West Africa
• Transnational piracy gangs
staging attacks up to Gabon,
Angola, Cote D’Ivoire
• Gangs also associated with oil
theft in Niger delta region and
connections to former militants
• Target is on refined petroleum
products
• Unlike Gulf of Aden, Private
Marine Security companies will
not be the solution
• National Navy Cooperation is still
insufficient (with except Benin –
Nigeria cooperation)
13. Terrorism:
Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram
• Boko haram and its splinter group
Ansaru have a fluctuating connections
AQIM and al Shabaab.
• Boko Haram’s activities can have
destabilizing effects in Chad,
Cameroon and Niger
• Boko Haram’s activates have
particularly stifled investment in
infrastructure, power and telecoms
and business in Northern Nigeria
• Boko Haram’s activities and support
base will be limited in Southern,
Christian regions
14. Boko Haram expresses a more diverse, less material objective Primarily
based on a clearly articulated religious agenda to Islamize Nigeria
16. Cote D’Ivoire
• President Alassane Ouattara still
trying to settle rifts from election
crisis and civil war
• Reconciliation meetings between
the opposition and the
government has not generated
significant gains
• Country still vulnerable to unrest
due to ethno religious divides
between North and South
• Security skirmishes at border
areas in 2012 fueled by arms
proliferation
• Presidential elections will be held
in end 2015
17. Nigeria
• Ruling party experiencing deepest
fragmentation since its rise to power in
1999
• Government still maintaining a fragile
stability in the oil producing Niger delta
region through its Amnesty programme
• Northern /Middle belt affected by
religious and ethnic crisis with high
human casualties and impact on
investments
• Companies face significant challenges in
dealing with poor and disenfranchised
communities in project areas
• Oil theft is among most significant
economic and security challenges facing
Nigeria
• Presidential / Parliamentary Elections in
early 2015
18. Guinea
• Successful presidential elections in
2012 left some ethnic groups feeling
marginalized
• Recent parliamentary elections have
Restoring trust in the electoral system is
crucial to defusing inter communal
tensions.
• Long standing military rule has
weakened democratic institutions and
poses a incessant threat
• Plentiful natural resources, including
bauxite (aluminum ore), iron ore and
vast tracts of arable land, can build a
strong economy
• Guinea’s progress on stabilizing its
political situation will impact on
investments in mining, power and
infrastructure
19. To Go or Not?
• Yes but, political risks must be considered
• We still don’t have a real regional market
• So every Country must be approached
differently
• Local contacts and knowledge essential
• Operations regulated by global standards for
– Safety and security
– Ethics
– Social responsibility
– Voluntary principles of security and human rights
20. Government permits and licenses does
not equal social license to operate in
communities
– Robust engagement with communities
– Avoid community gate keepers / fat cats
– Management of expectations
– Transparency
21. Security Policies
• Occupier mentality is recipe
for failure
• Making community
stakeholders in projects
through jobs, contracts,
support to education is best
defense against threats
• Ensure local law enforcement
or military involved in the
security program, practice
Voluntary Principals on
Security & Human Rights
23. 2014 Risks Summary
• National and local politics
• Disenfranchised Communities
• Rising Piracy and Oil theft
• Crime: Kidnap and Ransom
• Terrorism
• Corruption
• Skills gaps in Local Areas
