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2012
®
®




Five Ways to Reduce
   Warranty Costs

Fred Schenkelberg

   Consultant
  FMS Reliability
Introduction                                       ®




• First a few questions
  • How do you talk about Reliability?

  • What is the cost of unreliability?
     • What is included?
     • Warranty?


  • Who is in charge of reducing warranty costs?
     • C-suite
     • Engineering
     • Operations
What really happens when
products fail?             ®
A few observations

WHAT IS THE CURRENT
SITUATION?
How Motivated?
Information




Data ≠
Direction
Just checking…

DO YOU WANT TO REDUCE
WARRANTY COSTS?
Approach
How to approach creating a
     reliable product
Reliability Goal   ®




• Function

• Duration

• Probability

• Environment
Reliability Goal                       ®




• Function         • How fails?

• Duration         • How long?

• Probability      • Survival Chance

• Environment      • Use and weather
Apportionment                                       ®




System                  Elements
                        • With 5 major elements
• 95% reliable over 2
  years…                • Each has to be at least

                        • 99% reliable over 2
                          years…
Apportionment                                       ®




System                  Elements
                        • With 5 major elements
• 95% reliable over 2
  years…                • Each has to be at least

                        • 99% reliable over 2
                          years…
Focus on Failure Mechanisms   ®




• Real or imagined

• Discovered or measured

• Modeled or measured

• Eliminate or mitigate
Reliability Measured   ®




• Function

• Duration

• Probability

• Environment
Supply Chain
How to improve supplier or
  component reliability
The five standard responses   ®




• “Never seen that
  before….”
• “You must be
  overstressing it…”
• “ESD…”
• “We know and
  have a fix in
  place…”

• What have you
  heard?
Set reliability requirements   ®




• Apportioned goal

• Expected
  Environment

• Read the datasheet
  • Interpret
  • Ask more questions
What are you going to do
with this?                 ®
What are you going to do
with this?
              Peck’s Eqn   ®




              Arrhenius

      Norris-Landzberg
What are the failure mechanisms   ®




• What is expected
  to fail? Why?

• Given our
  environment…

• Given our design…

• Given variation…
Trust and Verify     ®




• Identify what is
  important

• And, measure it



• Let vendor know
  you are
  measuring it.
Environment/Use
  Techniques to improve
understanding of customer’s
      use conditions
Weather                          ®




          • Varies

          • Not always at
            extremes

          • Also includes:
            •   Power line
            •   ESD/Lightening
            •   Noise
            •   Etc.
Phases                      ®




         • Shipping

         • Installation

         • Use
           • Takeoff
           • Level flight
           • landing
Measure
The environment
and use
Measurement Methods                  ®




              • Studies

              • Surveys

              • Monitoring
                • Data loggers
                • On-board sensors
                • Indicators
Maturity
Techniques to measure
 reliability proactively
     not reactively
Subtle differences                                  ®




Reactive                 Proactive
• >25% fixing problems   • < 5%

• Individual “Hero”      • Product performs

• Lot’s of testing       • Very selective testing

• Surprises              • Confirmation
Failures
Guidelines to improve
   failure analysis
Friday afternoon   ®




• Panic

• What if…

• Focus blame…
Gather data and facts   ®




• Details

• Environment

• Exposure

• Extent
Remain Calm
Guidelines         ®




• Use an FA lab,
  not vendor

• Seek
  understanding

• Fix processes
Golden Nuggets         ®




• Identify classic
  errors

• Create and review
  short list
  • Start of program
  • Near program end


• (read Petroski
  Design Paradigms)
Summary             ®




• Approach

• Supply Chain

• Environment/Use

• Maturity

• Failure
What are
your
Questions?

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WCM 2012 5 Ways to Reduce Warranty Costs

  • 2. ® Five Ways to Reduce Warranty Costs Fred Schenkelberg Consultant FMS Reliability
  • 3.
  • 4. Introduction ® • First a few questions • How do you talk about Reliability? • What is the cost of unreliability? • What is included? • Warranty? • Who is in charge of reducing warranty costs? • C-suite • Engineering • Operations
  • 5. What really happens when products fail? ®
  • 6. A few observations WHAT IS THE CURRENT SITUATION?
  • 10. Just checking… DO YOU WANT TO REDUCE WARRANTY COSTS?
  • 11. Approach How to approach creating a reliable product
  • 12. Reliability Goal ® • Function • Duration • Probability • Environment
  • 13. Reliability Goal ® • Function • How fails? • Duration • How long? • Probability • Survival Chance • Environment • Use and weather
  • 14. Apportionment ® System Elements • With 5 major elements • 95% reliable over 2 years… • Each has to be at least • 99% reliable over 2 years…
  • 15. Apportionment ® System Elements • With 5 major elements • 95% reliable over 2 years… • Each has to be at least • 99% reliable over 2 years…
  • 16.
  • 17. Focus on Failure Mechanisms ® • Real or imagined • Discovered or measured • Modeled or measured • Eliminate or mitigate
  • 18. Reliability Measured ® • Function • Duration • Probability • Environment
  • 19. Supply Chain How to improve supplier or component reliability
  • 20. The five standard responses ® • “Never seen that before….” • “You must be overstressing it…” • “ESD…” • “We know and have a fix in place…” • What have you heard?
  • 21. Set reliability requirements ® • Apportioned goal • Expected Environment • Read the datasheet • Interpret • Ask more questions
  • 22. What are you going to do with this? ®
  • 23. What are you going to do with this? Peck’s Eqn ® Arrhenius Norris-Landzberg
  • 24. What are the failure mechanisms ® • What is expected to fail? Why? • Given our environment… • Given our design… • Given variation…
  • 25. Trust and Verify ® • Identify what is important • And, measure it • Let vendor know you are measuring it.
  • 26.
  • 27. Environment/Use Techniques to improve understanding of customer’s use conditions
  • 28. Weather ® • Varies • Not always at extremes • Also includes: • Power line • ESD/Lightening • Noise • Etc.
  • 29. Phases ® • Shipping • Installation • Use • Takeoff • Level flight • landing
  • 31. Measurement Methods ® • Studies • Surveys • Monitoring • Data loggers • On-board sensors • Indicators
  • 32. Maturity Techniques to measure reliability proactively not reactively
  • 33.
  • 34. Subtle differences ® Reactive Proactive • >25% fixing problems • < 5% • Individual “Hero” • Product performs • Lot’s of testing • Very selective testing • Surprises • Confirmation
  • 35. Failures Guidelines to improve failure analysis
  • 36. Friday afternoon ® • Panic • What if… • Focus blame…
  • 37. Gather data and facts ® • Details • Environment • Exposure • Extent
  • 39. Guidelines ® • Use an FA lab, not vendor • Seek understanding • Fix processes
  • 40. Golden Nuggets ® • Identify classic errors • Create and review short list • Start of program • Near program end • (read Petroski Design Paradigms)
  • 41. Summary ® • Approach • Supply Chain • Environment/Use • Maturity • Failure