Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Intro to reliability management

2,435 views

Published on

Slides for my presentation in the Hobbs Engineering webinar program

Published in: Technology, Business

Intro to reliability management

  1. 1. Introduction to Reliability Management Fred Schenkelberg Reliability Consultant fms@fmsreliability.com www.fmsreliability.com (408) 710-8248
  2. 2. What have you done for me lately?
  3. 3. What is your value??
  4. 4. What is your scope?
  5. 5. Or entire industry?
  6. 6. Goals Estimates PredictionsTesting Field Returns Goals and Feedback Specifications Responses
  7. 7. Score! Goal! Back of the Net!
  8. 8. How do you talk about reliability?
  9. 9. As good as or better …. Make it “reliable” Do your best. 5 year life None should ever fail.
  10. 10. www.nomtbf.com
  11. 11. How do those around you talk about reliability?
  12. 12. Four elements • Function – Primary – Side of box – performance • Probability – % surviving – Chance of surviving – No distribution • Environment – Weather – Stresses – Use profiles • Duration – Early Life – Warranty period – Useful Life
  13. 13. Practice • What is the function?
  14. 14. Practice • What is the environment? Coffee mug
  15. 15. Practice • What is the probability and duration?
  16. 16. Practice • What is another probability and duration?
  17. 17. Brew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.
  18. 18. System goal of 90% Reliability in 2 years.
  19. 19. Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5 R t( )= SubiÕ
  20. 20. Coffee Machine Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe 97% Home Coffee Machine 95% over 5 years 98% 99% 99% 98% R t( )= 0.97 ´ 0.98 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.98 = 0.91
  21. 21. Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 3.1 Sub 3.2 Sub 4 Sub 5
  22. 22. Coffee Machine Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe 97% Home Coffee Machine 95% over 5 years 98% 99% 99% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% Goals – straight line method
  23. 23. Feedback • Did you do well? • Are you on track? • Corrections?
  24. 24. Concept Design Development Manufacturing Field Use
  25. 25. FRACAS Multiple systems Overbearing Enforcement Rewards for numbers
  26. 26. Typical early life failures Product does not meet design specifications Material or component characterization Process characterization Assembly characterization Process control – focus on what’s
  27. 27. Prediction of ELFs Not commonly possibly for unknown variation Design in some margin Derating Safety factor Determine margin If variation is know, determine probability of failures – still difficult to know when though.
  28. 28. Hit by a big hammer Some stress is too large to accommodate Lightening Vehicle accident Meteor strike Hurricane Possibly foreseen or expected, and not economical to design the ability to withstand
  29. 29. Prediction of overstress Not commonly possibly Design errors Environment Unexpected use When significant adverse consequence may occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches
  30. 30. Wear out and related Everything fails – eventually Understand failure mechanisms and environment It is a race to cause the failure
  31. 31. Call Centers First contact with failure What do you collect? that is actionable? What is the main focus?
  32. 32. VALUE
  33. 33. Return on Investment • Cost or Investment What do you spend to accomplish the task? • Return or Benefit What you realize as a result? Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI
  34. 34. Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents. Switch? What else to consider?
  35. 35. Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents. $0.05 FET has MTBF of 50,000 hours $0.10 FET has MTBF of 75,000 hours 1000 hours of operation Shipping 1000 units Cost to repair unit $250
  36. 36. Total Cost of $0.10 FET #Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units = 13.25 Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250 Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 = $3350 987.01000 000,75 1000 10.0 eR
  37. 37. FET Cost Repair Cost Total Cost $0.10 $3250 75,000 hrs $3350 $0.05 $5000 50,000 hrs $5050 $0.50 $2500 100,000hrs $3000
  38. 38. How else can we find value?
  39. 39. Summary • Set goals • Break goals down • Create feedback • Create value
  40. 40. Introduction to Reliability Management Fred Schenkelberg Reliability Consultant fms@fmsreliability.com www.fmsreliability.com (408) 710-8248

×