1. Introduction to
Reliability Management
Fred Schenkelberg
Reliability Consultant
fms@fmsreliability.com
www.fmsreliability.com
(408) 710-8248

2. What have you done
for me lately?

3. What is your value??

4. What is your scope?

5. Or entire industry?

6. Goals
Estimates
PredictionsTesting
Field
Returns
Goals and Feedback
Specifications
Responses

7. Score!
Goal!
Back of
the Net!

8. How do you talk
about reliability?

9. As good as or better ….
Make it “reliable”
Do your best.
5 year life
None should ever fail.

10. www.nomtbf.com

11. How do those around you talk about reliability?

13. Four elements
• Function
– Primary
– Side of box
– performance
• Probability
– % surviving
– Chance of surviving
– No distribution
• Environment
– Weather
– Stresses
– Use profiles
• Duration
– Early Life
– Warranty period
– Useful Life

14. Practice
• What is the
function?

15. Practice
• What is the
environment?
Coffee mug

16. Practice
• What is the
probability and
duration?

17. Practice
• What is another
probability and
duration?

18. Brew coffee daily in US home environment
99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and
95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.

19. System goal of
90% Reliability
in 2 years.

20. Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5
R t( )= SubiÕ

21. Coffee
Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine
95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
R t( )= 0.97 ´ 0.98 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.98 = 0.91

23. Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3
Sub 3.1
Sub 3.2
Sub 4 Sub 5

24. Coffee
Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine
95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
Goals – straight line method

27. Feedback
• Did you do well?
• Are you on track?
• Corrections?

28. Concept Design Development Manufacturing
Field
Use

30. FRACAS
Multiple systems
Overbearing Enforcement
Rewards for numbers

31. Typical early life failures
Product does not meet
design specifications
Material or component
characterization
Process characterization
Assembly characterization
Process control – focus on what’s

32. Prediction of ELFs
Not commonly possibly for unknown variation
Design in some margin
Derating
Safety factor
Determine margin
If variation is know, determine probability of
failures – still difficult to know when though.

33. Hit by a big hammer
Some stress is too large to accommodate
Lightening
Vehicle accident
Meteor strike
Hurricane
Possibly foreseen or expected, and not
economical to design the ability to withstand

34. Prediction of overstress
Not commonly possibly
Design errors
Environment
Unexpected use
When significant adverse consequence may
occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches

35. Wear out and related
Everything fails –
eventually
Understand failure
mechanisms and
environment
It is a race to cause
the failure

36. Call Centers
First contact with failure
What do you collect?
that is actionable?
What is the main focus?

37. VALUE

38. Return on Investment
• Cost or Investment
What do you spend to
accomplish the task?
• Return or Benefit
What you realize as a
result?
Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI

39. Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
Switch?
What else to consider?

40. Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
$0.05 FET has MTBF of
50,000 hours
$0.10 FET has MTBF of
75,000 hours
1000 hours of operation
Shipping 1000 units
Cost to repair unit $250

41. Total Cost of $0.10 FET
#Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units =
13.25
Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250
Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 =
$3350
987.01000 000,75
1000
10.0 eR

42. FET
Cost
Repair
Cost
Total
Cost
$0.10 $3250
75,000 hrs
$3350
$0.05 $5000
50,000 hrs
$5050
$0.50 $2500
100,000hrs
$3000

43. How else can we find value?

46. Summary
• Set goals
• Break goals down
• Create feedback
• Create value

47. Introduction to
Reliability Management
Fred Schenkelberg
Reliability Consultant
fms@fmsreliability.com
www.fmsreliability.com
(408) 710-8248