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PhD research on evacuation optimization (Huibregtse)


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TIL/T&P Masterclass presentation by Olga Huibregtse on her PhD research and reporting tips. September 2011.

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PhD research on evacuation optimization (Huibregtse)

  1. 1. PhD research & reporting tipsOlga HuibregtseMasterclass T&P/TIL, 29-9-2011 Delft University of Technology Challenge the future
  2. 2. PhD ProjectRobust optimization of evacuation measures• Typical for evacuations: • Demand • Behavior • High congestion level• Measures • Demand: departure time instructions, etc. • Supply: reversing lanes, etc.• Uncertainty: • The impact of the hazard • The behavior of the people • Etc. PhD research & reporting tips 2 | 10
  3. 3. Part of the PhD projectThat I will present today• Method to optimize route instructions considering uncertainty and compliance behavior• Computationally heavy when considering uncertainty and behavior• Can we develop a more efficient method?• Research is carried out together with: • Gunnar Flötteröd & Michel Bierlaire (EPFL) • Andreas Hegyi & Serge Hoogendoorn (TU Delft) PhD research & reporting tips 3 | 10
  4. 4. Optimization of route guidanceState-of-the-art• Discussion: System-optimal (SO) or user-equilibrium (UE) • SO: unrealistic, results in non-compliance • UE: low effectiveness from system point of view • Importance of system optimality and behavior of people• Considering route choice behavior: • usual approach: modeled on node level (compliance rate) • In reality, route decision depends on total trip, thus behavior should be considered on route level but this is computationally expensive PhD research & reporting tips 4 | 10
  5. 5. Considering behavior on route levelRelatively complex problem• High number of routes, thus high number of decision variables • 3X3 square: • 16 turning fractions • 6 routes • 10X10 square: • 324 turning fractions • 48,620 routes• An efficient method is needed to solve the problem PhD research & reporting tips 5 | 10
  6. 6. Efficient approachTo optimize route guidance• Optimization of route guidance, constrained by: • Traffic flow simulation model • Behavior model describing route choice• Fixed-Point Approach: decomposing the problem into simpler problems which are iteratively solved PhD research & reporting tips 6 | 10
  7. 7. Fixed-point approach Sub-problems and their simplificationsSub-problems Decision variable: Constraint: traffic Constraint: route advice flow model behavioural model1. Optimization Turning fractions  Full complianceof turningfractions2. Optimization  Fixed time- of route advice dependent link travel times3. Approximation of behaviour: adapting bounds on turningfractions PhD research & reporting tips 7 | 10
  8. 8. Case studyHypothetical flood of Walcheren• 120,000 residents• 6 hours to evacuate• Route choice model• Traffic flow model• Optimization method• Undecomposed approach• Fixed-Point Approach PhD research & reporting tips 8 | 10
  9. 9. Results The FPA is substantially faster, while maintaining the quality of the solution 3 Performance: -0.30%Test 2 Performance: -0.05% 1 Fixed-Point Approach Performance: +4.92% Undecomposed Approach 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Computational time (hours) PhD research & reporting tips 9 | 10
  10. 10. And finallySome reporting tips• Tips in general: • Follow the usual setup from introduction to conclusions • Think about the motivation • Compact • Audience • Etc.• How my writing skills improved over the years: • Practice • Reviewing other papers Tip: carefully read reports or papers from other people PhD research & reporting tips 10 | 10