Hurricane Hazards and  Outlook for 2012            Dan ReillyWarning Coordination Meteorologist        National Weather   ...
Outline• Hurricane hazards (storm  surge, high winds, flooding  rains, tornadoes)• Past hurricane seasons (what is  typica...
Tropical Cyclone Classifications       ◆   Tropical Depression: Max           Sustained Winds less than 39           mph  ...
Hurricane Ike View from Radar  Eye Wall                                Spiral                                Bands
Hurricane HazardsStorm Surge      TornadoesDamaging Winds   Flooding
Early rise trapped some onBolivar, Galveston IslandLesson learned: don’t wait toolong to leave surgezones, especially barr...
Hurricane Ike: Bolivar PeninsulaDevastation    Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
To Evaluate YourRisk, Need to Know  Your Elevation!What About Fort Bend County?
Know Your Elevation toDetermine Risk forSurge                         Elevation around Fort Bend                         C...
HURRICANE WINDS
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind ScaleCategory     1-min. Sustained Winds   Storm Examples     Wind Impacts             (mph)...
Large Cat 2 high surge and            Small Cat 4 modest surge near eyewall only;moderate wind impact over large area   ...
Cat 1 Damage in HoustonTypical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some                             r...
2004 Hurricane Charley – SW                 FloridaCAT 4 Wind inPurple
Flooding from Rainfall From    Tropical Cyclones Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001
Tropical Storm AllisonJune 2001 Looped Over SETexas; 36.99 inches of rain Port ofHouston
Some Notable Flood-Producing StormsFEMA Hurricane Readiness   Coastal Communities   3-71
From Ashley and Ashley, 2008;                                  50 years of data across the U.S.5/11/2012   Weather.gov/hou...
Hurricane Threats: Tornadoes        Hurricane Carla (1961)                         Tornadic storms are                   ...
Hurricane Outlook for 2012• Year to Year Variability in the Atlantic• What is an “active” year? Was 2011  active?• What ca...
Note Multi-year Variability in Atlantic              Activity
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2011Forecast Group      Number of   Number of    Number of    ACE                   Named Stor...
19 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2012Forecast Group      Number of   Number of    Number of    ACE                   Named Stor...
1983, VERY Quiet Season (or was it?) Very low number of storms, but one with major impact on SE Texas                    L...
Tropical Cyclone Preparation
www.hurricanes.gov (National Hurricane Center Web Site)
National Weather Service Web Sites weather.gov, weather.gov/houston • Graphical and text forecasts • Recorded briefings • ...
• Make a plan   • If I choose to     evacuate• Build a kit   • Non-perishable food     items   • Water   • Medicines   • B...
Questions?• Dan.Reilly@noaa.gov
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
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The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season

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The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season

  1. 1. Hurricane Hazards and Outlook for 2012 Dan ReillyWarning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service, Houston/Galveston
  2. 2. Outline• Hurricane hazards (storm surge, high winds, flooding rains, tornadoes)• Past hurricane seasons (what is typical)• 2012 Atlantic hurricane outlook
  3. 3. Tropical Cyclone Classifications ◆ Tropical Depression: Max Sustained Winds less than 39 mph ◆ Tropical Storm: Max Sustained Winds 39-73 mph ◆ Hurricane: Max Sustained Winds 74 mph or greater
  4. 4. Hurricane Ike View from Radar Eye Wall Spiral Bands
  5. 5. Hurricane HazardsStorm Surge TornadoesDamaging Winds Flooding
  6. 6. Early rise trapped some onBolivar, Galveston IslandLesson learned: don’t wait toolong to leave surgezones, especially barrierislands; Need to account for theforerunner
  7. 7. Hurricane Ike: Bolivar PeninsulaDevastation Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
  8. 8. To Evaluate YourRisk, Need to Know Your Elevation!What About Fort Bend County?
  9. 9. Know Your Elevation toDetermine Risk forSurge Elevation around Fort Bend County 70 to 120 feet
  10. 10. HURRICANE WINDS
  11. 11. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind ScaleCategory 1-min. Sustained Winds Storm Examples Wind Impacts (mph) Tropical Less than 39 mph Relatively minorDepression Tropical Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant Storm 1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007 2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Extremely dangerous; will Ike 2008 produce extensive damage 3 111 - 129 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005 4 130 - 156 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961 5 157 or greater Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969
  12. 12. Large Cat 2 high surge and Small Cat 4 modest surge near eyewall only;moderate wind impact over large area extreme wind impact near eyewall; Ike, 2008 Charlie, 2004
  13. 13. Cat 1 Damage in HoustonTypical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some roof damage
  14. 14. 2004 Hurricane Charley – SW FloridaCAT 4 Wind inPurple
  15. 15. Flooding from Rainfall From Tropical Cyclones Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001
  16. 16. Tropical Storm AllisonJune 2001 Looped Over SETexas; 36.99 inches of rain Port ofHouston
  17. 17. Some Notable Flood-Producing StormsFEMA Hurricane Readiness Coastal Communities 3-71
  18. 18. From Ashley and Ashley, 2008; 50 years of data across the U.S.5/11/2012 Weather.gov/houston 24
  19. 19. Hurricane Threats: Tornadoes Hurricane Carla (1961)  Tornadic storms are embedded in rain bands generally in the northeast quadrant of the storm  Tornadoes can also form within the eyewall (less common) 5 Killed by F3 tornado in Galveston
  20. 20. Hurricane Outlook for 2012• Year to Year Variability in the Atlantic• What is an “active” year? Was 2011 active?• What can we expect for 2012? – Typically based on El Nino/La Nina cycle, Atlantic SSTs and MDO
  21. 21. Note Multi-year Variability in Atlantic Activity
  22. 22. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2011Forecast Group Number of Number of Number of ACE Named Storms Hurricanes Major HurricanesLong-Term 12 6.5 2 92AverageNational Weather 15 8 4.5ServiceColorado State 16 9 5 160Penn State 16Florida State 19 9 163Cuba Institute 13 7Impact Weather 14 8 4Accuweather 15 8 3Actual 19 7 4
  23. 23. 19 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes
  24. 24. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2012Forecast Group Number of Number of Number of ACE Named Storms Hurricanes Major HurricanesLong-Term 12 6.5 2 92Average (1981-2010)National WeatherServiceColorado State 10 4 2 70WSI 11 6 2Penn StateFlorida StateCuba Institute 10 5Impact WeatherAccuweatherActual
  25. 25. 1983, VERY Quiet Season (or was it?) Very low number of storms, but one with major impact on SE Texas Least active season 1983 (4 named storms! No El Nino or La Nina (neutral)
  26. 26. Tropical Cyclone Preparation
  27. 27. www.hurricanes.gov (National Hurricane Center Web Site)
  28. 28. National Weather Service Web Sites weather.gov, weather.gov/houston • Graphical and text forecasts • Recorded briefings • Hurricane audio and video briefings if a storm is approaching • Facebook page (Like us!) Also check out your Office of Emergency Management pages, Social Media for weather info and alerts!
  29. 29. • Make a plan • If I choose to evacuate• Build a kit • Non-perishable food items • Water • Medicines • Battery powered radio • Can opener• Keep tank full• Have cash on hand More Preparedness Info at: http://www.ready.gov Hurricanes.gov/prepare http://www.fbcoem.org/
  30. 30. Questions?• Dan.Reilly@noaa.gov

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