Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County

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Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County

  1. 1. Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010 Looking Back at Ike Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Hurricane History/Climatology </li></ul><ul><li>Outlook for 2010 Season </li></ul><ul><li>Changes for 2010 to NWS Products </li></ul>
  3. 3. Oil Spill Update: May 21st, 2010 http://response.restoration.noaa.gov June 1 st , 2010
  4. 4. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing Loop Current
  5. 5. Tropical Cyclone Hazards Storm Surge Tornadoes Flooding Damaging Winds
  6. 6. Hurricane Threats STORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level directly associated with the wind and pressure forces associated with a hurricane Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high tide Storm Surge is highest in right forward quadrant near center as it crosses coast
  7. 7. Hurricane Threats Maximum storm surge and wind occur in right forward quadrant , near where center crosses the coast
  8. 9. Radar loop for Ike
  9. 11. Early Rise Trapped some on Bolivar, Galveston Island
  10. 13. Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Devastation Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
  11. 17. Tropical Storm Allison June 2001 Looped Over SE Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of Houston
  12. 18. Tropical Storm Claudette July 1979. Looped Over SE Texas; 43 inches of rain measured in Alvin over 24 hours (record)
  13. 19. Atlantic Basin Season Season: June 1 – November 30 Systems originate: Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean
  14. 20. Hurricane Climatology (continued)
  15. 22. Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) Measure of Tropical Cyclone activity: Sum of the square of the maximum wind speed of all storms at least Tropical Storm strength every 6 hours
  16. 24. Outlook for 2010 <ul><li>NOAA Outlook </li></ul><ul><ul><li>14-23 named storms (11-12) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8-14 Hurricanes (5-6) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3-7 Major Hurricanes (2-3) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ACE 155%-270% of median </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Loss of El Nino, active phase of MDO, and above average sea surface temperatures suggest above average activity </li></ul><ul><li>Even a low activity season can have a big effect locally: need to prepare </li></ul>
  17. 25. Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)
  18. 26. Changes to NWS Products <ul><li>Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued 12 hours earlier (48 hours for watches, 36 hours for warnings prior to onset of TS force winds) </li></ul><ul><li>Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adopted (ties of category to surge and central pressure taken out of the scale) </li></ul>
  19. 27. Now officially adopted: just a wind rating without reference to surge, central pressure New Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph) Storm Examples Wind Impacts 1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007 2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Ike 2008 Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage 3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005 4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961 5 > 156 Labor Day 1935 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969 Andrew 1992
  20. 30. Summary <ul><li>Ike was a very large storm, tremendous surge producer </li></ul><ul><li>Category of storm not a good overall indicator of storm severity </li></ul><ul><li>2010 season will likely be more active for Atlantic; no telling how Texas may be impacted </li></ul>

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