<ul><li>Structure / Climatology </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Impact – Wind/Surge/Rain/   Tornadoes </li...
<ul><li>What are Hurricane-Force  Winds Really Like? </li></ul>In 2004, Category 4 Hurricane Charley struck Punta Gorda, F...
 
When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season? <ul><li>May 1 st  through October 31 st   </li></ul><ul><li>June 1 st  through Nove...
Atlantic Basin Yearly Average 9.8 Named Storms 5.8 Hurricanes 2.5 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or >) Peak Season Early August T...
A Hurricane is a Heat Engine Warm/Moist Inflow at Surface Outflow Aloft
Year Population Coastal County Population Texas to Maine 1900-2000 53% of population now live within 50 miles of the coast
Increased Coastal Development is a Major Problem Source:  Pielke, 2000 Miami Beach 2006 Miami Beach 1926 $100 million dama...
 
<ul><li>Based only on max winds </li></ul><ul><li>Max winds may be isolated </li></ul><ul><li>Storm surge is more related ...
2-20 ft. 3-24 ft. 4-28 ft. 5-32 ft. 6-36 ft. Should  NOT  be Used to Estimate Storm Surge The Former Saffir-Simpson Scale
New for 2009 – The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane  Wind  Scale
The Hurricane Severity Index A new scale for classifying hurricanes that takes into consideration more than just maximum s...
HSI Values for Well-Known Tropical Cyclones at Landfall 5 3 2 Edouard ’08 27 16 11 Andrew ’92 (LA) 8 5 3 Humberto ’07 11 8...
Ivan / Dennis Comparison (20 size) (6 size)
Ike / Alicia Comparison Alicia damage computed in 2006 dollars (19 size) (11 size)
Ike / Dolly Comparison (19 size) (4 size)
 
HSI Values for US landfalling 2008 Storms 3 2 1 50 – TS Fay 5 3 2 60 – TS Edouard 8 4 4 70 – TS  Hanna 10 7 3 90 – Cat 1 D...
What is Meant by the Yellow Error Cone? A.  <ul><li>Hurricane-force winds are  likely within this cone </li></ul><ul><li>T...
Average (75%) Forecast Error Average 5-Day Error 840 mi. Diameter Circle
Remember! The threat from hurricanes often extends far beyond the error cone! 6-8ft Tides Dangerous Surf 39 58 74
Hurricane Winds <ul><li>Can reach up to 200 mph </li></ul><ul><li>Force increases exponentially    (double wind = 4 times ...
Hurricane Ike
80-85 85-90 90-95 75-80
Peak Wind Gust 134 mph in Deer Park
Chase Tower – Houston
What is the Weakest Point of Most Homes? <ul><li>Windows  </li></ul><ul><li>Garage Doors  </li></ul><ul><li>Roof  </li></u...
Doors “Sucked” Out Doors Blown In Hurricane Gustav Garage Door/Roof Failure
Securing Your Garage Door According to the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, about 80% of residential hurricane wind damage...
<ul><li>How Far Do the Winds </li></ul><ul><li>From a Hurricane  </li></ul><ul><li>Extend Inland ? </li></ul>
Inland Wind Decay
 
 
Inland Penetration of 74+ mph Winds (Cat. 3 moving 14 mph)
Category 2 Ike Produced Hurricane-Force Winds Nearly to Lufkin
Heavy Rain / Inland Flooding <ul><li>Independent of intensity </li></ul><ul><li>Can flood areas hundreds   of miles inland...
 
Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning
Houston Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning
Hurricane Ike Rainfall – Second Event Saturday Night / Sunday Morning
Includes precipitation from the post-Ike cold front
Storm Surge
Factors That Contribute to Storm Surge <ul><li>Wind field size </li></ul><ul><li>Forward speed   (slower = higher surge) <...
<ul><li>Question: Which Home will better survive a storm surge?  </li></ul><ul><li>Home on the coast with a shallow slope ...
Shallow water offshore – gentle slope (NW Gulf Coast) Deep water offshore - steep slope (East U.S. Coast)
Large Waves Ahead of a Hurricane Can Cut Off Evacuation Routes Days Before Landfall
Hurricane Ike
Houston/Galveston Area Storm Surge Inundation
 
Emerald Beach – Bolivar Peninsula
Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008
Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008
1900 1912 First Baptist Church - Galveston
<ul><li>70% of hurricanes (1948-2000) spawned at least 1 tornado </li></ul><ul><li>40% of hurricanes spawn more than 3 tor...
Preparing for the Inevitable <ul><li>Pre-season planning </li></ul><ul><li>Your hurricane kit  </li></ul><ul><li>Preparing...
http://www.onestorm.org/
Organize Contact Info & Rally Locations
 
 
Important Papers Reminder
“ To-do” list at the end
Preparing Your Hurricane Kit <ul><li>Flashlights/Lanterns </li></ul><ul><li>Extra Batteries </li></ul><ul><li>Portable TV ...
Water – 1 gal./day per Person http://mywatersafe.com Collapsible containers allow you to store all the water you’ll need f...
http://worldprep.com/ http://www.readykit.com/ All-in-One Kits Offer Convenience $60 and up
Fluorescent LED $30 Battery-Powered Lighting Halogen $40 Xenon / LED $50 LED and fluorescent lights can last days on a set...
Pocket-Size NOAA $50-$60 Crank Radio LED Light Phone Charger NOAA With TV Band $40-$60 Staying in Touch
X Analog TV Digital TV TV Signals Are Now Digital As of June 12, 2009, all analog TV broadcasts will be discontinued, rend...
Battery-Powered Fan A fan can make it easier to get some sleep when the power is out. Some units can operate for several d...
Generator for Backup Power  $350 2 hr. run time $800 Higher output /   12-14 hr. run time
Proper Generator Operation <ul><li>Only operate outdoors </li></ul><ul><li>Keep well away from    open doors/windows </li>...
$100 $200-$700 Line Conditioners Essential for Clean Power Sensitive electronic equipment requires a stable power source. ...
Carbon Monoxide Detector $20-$25 Carbon monoxide is a colorless and odorless gas produced as your generator is running.  I...
Automobile Power Inverter Allows you to use your car to provide AC power to small devices/appliances. Note: Car engine sho...
Staying Cool After the Storm $100-$150 A low-cost window AC unit can be installed in minutes. Powered by your generator, i...
Preparing Your Home When a Hurricane Threatens <ul><li>Check your insurance policy & coverage – does   your policy cover f...
Taping Windows Does  NOT Protect Your Home
Proper Window Protection Fabric – Vinyl/PVC/Kevlar Plywood – ¾” Recommended Corrugated Metal Protective Screens Goal – pre...
Hurricane Jeanne Damage in Florida - 2004 Home on the right had hurricane panels on windows
 
If You Plan to Evacuate <ul><li>Is your home in a surge zone? </li></ul><ul><li>Locate your evacuation route  </li></ul><u...
Hurricane Evacuation Maps for Beaumont/Port Arthur <ul><li>ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/plans_hurr_maps/ssa_2008_inland...
Evacuation Zones by Zip Code http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html
Proposed NHC Storm Surge Warning Map
Houston Area Contraflow Locations http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html
Contraflow on I-10 begins at Brookshire
Contraflow on I-45 begins Near Conroe
Contraflow on Hwy. 59 begins north of Humble
Contraflow on Hwy. 290 begins at Hwy. 6
Evacuation Checklist <ul><li>Important Documents (“Grab-and-Go” folder) </li></ul><ul><li>Extra Cash (small bills) </li></...
If You’re Riding it Out <ul><li>Have water containers ready to fill </li></ul><ul><li>Food – 3-7 days w/o refrigeration </...
Surviving After the Hurricane Hits <ul><li>No Electricity / Water </li></ul><ul><li>Communications    Disrupted </li></ul>...
Outlook for the 2009 Season
Major Seasonal Predictors <ul><li>Strength of El Niño / La Niña </li></ul><ul><li>Atlantic sea surface temperature   regim...
El Ni ñ o  vs.   La Ni ña Hello there it El Ni ñ o causes extra thunderstorm development over the central and eastern equa...
Comparing April 2008 and 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures April 2008 SST Anomalies April 2009 SST Anomalies
El Niño?? Neutral La Niña April 2009 Forecast from NCEP
Warm 1870-1900 Warm 1926-1969 Warm 1995 – 2025? Cool 1900-1926 Cool 1970-1994 The Active Cycle Continues in 2009, Though i...
Cold Atlantic Warm Atlantic Florida and U.S. East Coast Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2006
Analog Years
Some 2009 Forecasts Dr. Bill Gray / Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State): 12 NS / 6 H / 2 MH Dr. Mark Saunders (Tropical Storm ...
What We’re Saying at ImpactWeather <ul><li>SSTs closer to normal </li></ul><ul><li>Neutral to weak El Niño by September </...
Hurricane Impacts in 2009 <ul><li>Gulf of Mexico – 3 named storms </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. East Coast – 1 named storm   1 ne...
2009 Names Kate Wanda Joaquin Victor Ida Teresa Henri Sam Grace Rose Fred Peter Erika Odette Danny Nicholas Claudette Mind...
<ul><li>What about Global Warming? </li></ul><ul><li>We have heard from reliable sources that a protest has been filed.  T...
To Summarize <ul><li>Prepare Early – Have a Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Build Your Hurricane Supply Kit Now </li></ul><ul><li>G...
Questions? Hurricane Emily from ISS July 17, 2005 John Phillips, NASA
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Impact Weather Presentation for Fort Bend County Preparedness Workshop

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  • Impact Weather Presentation for Fort Bend County Preparedness Workshop

    1. 1. <ul><li>Structure / Climatology </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Impact – Wind/Surge/Rain/ Tornadoes </li></ul><ul><li>Preparing Home & Family </li></ul><ul><li>Lessons Learned from Recent Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Outlook for 2009 </li></ul>Hurricane Awareness and Preparedness Mark Mathiesen Sr. TropicsWatch Meteorologist
    2. 2. <ul><li>What are Hurricane-Force Winds Really Like? </li></ul>In 2004, Category 4 Hurricane Charley struck Punta Gorda, FL Let’s take a look at what hurricane-force winds really “look like”
    3. 4. When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season? <ul><li>May 1 st through October 31 st </li></ul><ul><li>June 1 st through November 30 th </li></ul><ul><li>June 1 st through October 31 st </li></ul><ul><li>January 1 st through December 31 st </li></ul>
    4. 5. Atlantic Basin Yearly Average 9.8 Named Storms 5.8 Hurricanes 2.5 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or >) Peak Season Early August Through Mid October Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Hurricanes 90-95% Aug 1 Oct 22
    5. 6. A Hurricane is a Heat Engine Warm/Moist Inflow at Surface Outflow Aloft
    6. 7. Year Population Coastal County Population Texas to Maine 1900-2000 53% of population now live within 50 miles of the coast
    7. 8. Increased Coastal Development is a Major Problem Source: Pielke, 2000 Miami Beach 2006 Miami Beach 1926 $100 million damage $200 Billion damage
    8. 10. <ul><li>Based only on max winds </li></ul><ul><li>Max winds may be isolated </li></ul><ul><li>Storm surge is more related to a hurricane’s size </li></ul><ul><li>Does not consider size and scope of a hurricane’s wind field </li></ul><ul><li>Not a good estimate of potential extent of damage </li></ul>The Former Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Should NOT be Used to Estimate Storm Surge
    9. 11. 2-20 ft. 3-24 ft. 4-28 ft. 5-32 ft. 6-36 ft. Should NOT be Used to Estimate Storm Surge The Former Saffir-Simpson Scale
    10. 12. New for 2009 – The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
    11. 13. The Hurricane Severity Index A new scale for classifying hurricanes that takes into consideration more than just maximum surface winds. <ul><li>Size (1-25 points) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Examines the total coverage of the 39+, 58+, 74+, and 100+ mph wind fields </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intensity (1-25 points) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Points assigned using the exponential relationship between wind speed and the force exerted on an object </li></ul></ul>Developed by: Chris Hebert and Bob Weinzapfel The Result: A 50-point scale that better represents a tropical cyclone’s true destructive potential, the Hurricane Severity Index
    12. 14. HSI Values for Well-Known Tropical Cyclones at Landfall 5 3 2 Edouard ’08 27 16 11 Andrew ’92 (LA) 8 5 3 Humberto ’07 11 8 3 Dolly ’08 11 7 4 Claudette ’03 20 9 11 Gustav ‘08 22 11 11 Alicia ‘83 26 10 16 Rita ‘05 27 10 17 Ike ‘08 36 11 25 Opal ‘05 36 13 23 Katrina ‘05 36 22 14 Camille ‘69 37 12 25 Wilma ‘04 40 15 25 Betsy ‘65 42 17 25 Carla ‘61 Total Intensity Size HSI Hurricane
    13. 15. Ivan / Dennis Comparison (20 size) (6 size)
    14. 16. Ike / Alicia Comparison Alicia damage computed in 2006 dollars (19 size) (11 size)
    15. 17. Ike / Dolly Comparison (19 size) (4 size)
    16. 19. HSI Values for US landfalling 2008 Storms 3 2 1 50 – TS Fay 5 3 2 60 – TS Edouard 8 4 4 70 – TS Hanna 10 7 3 90 – Cat 1 Dolly 20 9 11 105 – Cat 2 Gustav 27 10 17 110 – Cat 2 Ike Total Intensity Size HSI Wind (mph) Saffir-Simpson Name
    17. 20. What is Meant by the Yellow Error Cone? A. <ul><li>Hurricane-force winds are likely within this cone </li></ul><ul><li>There is a 75% chance that the hurricane’s center will track somewhere within this cone. </li></ul><ul><li>Should your location lie within the cone, there is a 75% chance that you will be impacted. </li></ul><ul><li>The cone should only be used for general guidance. A hurricane goes wherever it wants. </li></ul>
    18. 21. Average (75%) Forecast Error Average 5-Day Error 840 mi. Diameter Circle
    19. 22. Remember! The threat from hurricanes often extends far beyond the error cone! 6-8ft Tides Dangerous Surf 39 58 74
    20. 23. Hurricane Winds <ul><li>Can reach up to 200 mph </li></ul><ul><li>Force increases exponentially (double wind = 4 times force) </li></ul><ul><li>Wind speed increases with height to 1500 ft. up </li></ul><ul><li>Winds atop a skyscraper could be 20-30 mph higher! </li></ul>
    21. 24. Hurricane Ike
    22. 25. 80-85 85-90 90-95 75-80
    23. 26. Peak Wind Gust 134 mph in Deer Park
    24. 27. Chase Tower – Houston
    25. 28. What is the Weakest Point of Most Homes? <ul><li>Windows </li></ul><ul><li>Garage Doors </li></ul><ul><li>Roof </li></ul><ul><li>Front Door </li></ul>
    26. 29. Doors “Sucked” Out Doors Blown In Hurricane Gustav Garage Door/Roof Failure
    27. 30. Securing Your Garage Door According to the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, about 80% of residential hurricane wind damage starts with wind entry through garage doors. A common 26-gauge double-wide garage door will fail with winds of only 70 mph, leading to possible catastrophic roof failure. Adding a simple brace to the door can prevent the door from being blown in or sucked out – even with winds of 180 mph. http://www.securedoor.com SecureDoor – Available at Lowe’s $139 / brace
    28. 31. <ul><li>How Far Do the Winds </li></ul><ul><li>From a Hurricane </li></ul><ul><li>Extend Inland ? </li></ul>
    29. 32. Inland Wind Decay
    30. 35. Inland Penetration of 74+ mph Winds (Cat. 3 moving 14 mph)
    31. 36. Category 2 Ike Produced Hurricane-Force Winds Nearly to Lufkin
    32. 37. Heavy Rain / Inland Flooding <ul><li>Independent of intensity </li></ul><ul><li>Can flood areas hundreds of miles inland </li></ul><ul><li>12” of water can sweep away your car </li></ul><ul><li>6 inches of water can sweep a person off his/her feet </li></ul><ul><li>Is the #1 killer (from severe weather) in the U.S. </li></ul>Rainfall Estimation Tip
    33. 39. Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning
    34. 40. Houston Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning
    35. 41. Hurricane Ike Rainfall – Second Event Saturday Night / Sunday Morning
    36. 42. Includes precipitation from the post-Ike cold front
    37. 43. Storm Surge
    38. 44. Factors That Contribute to Storm Surge <ul><li>Wind field size </li></ul><ul><li>Forward speed (slower = higher surge) </li></ul><ul><li>Angle of impact </li></ul><ul><li>Near-shore water depth </li></ul><ul><li>Shape of the coastline (bays enhance surge) </li></ul>Storm Surge Builds as it Moves into Shallower Water Near the Coast A hurricane’s Saffir-Simpson rating isn’t a consideration
    39. 45. <ul><li>Question: Which Home will better survive a storm surge? </li></ul><ul><li>Home on the coast with a shallow slope offshore </li></ul><ul><li>Home on the coast with a steep slope offshore </li></ul>
    40. 46. Shallow water offshore – gentle slope (NW Gulf Coast) Deep water offshore - steep slope (East U.S. Coast)
    41. 47. Large Waves Ahead of a Hurricane Can Cut Off Evacuation Routes Days Before Landfall
    42. 48. Hurricane Ike
    43. 49. Houston/Galveston Area Storm Surge Inundation
    44. 51. Emerald Beach – Bolivar Peninsula
    45. 52. Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008
    46. 53. Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008
    47. 54. 1900 1912 First Baptist Church - Galveston
    48. 55. <ul><li>70% of hurricanes (1948-2000) spawned at least 1 tornado </li></ul><ul><li>40% of hurricanes spawn more than 3 tornadoes </li></ul><ul><li>Some produce “outbreaks” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beulah (1967): 141 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ivan (2004): 117 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frances (2004): 101 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rita (2005): 90 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Camille (1969): 80 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Katrina (2005): 45 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gustav (2008): 41 </li></ul></ul>Tornado warnings for Hurr. Gustav (2008) Hurricane-Spawned Tornadoes
    49. 56. Preparing for the Inevitable <ul><li>Pre-season planning </li></ul><ul><li>Your hurricane kit </li></ul><ul><li>Preparing your home </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation checklist </li></ul><ul><li>Riding it out at home </li></ul><ul><li>After the storm </li></ul>Rita – 2005
    50. 57. http://www.onestorm.org/
    51. 58. Organize Contact Info & Rally Locations
    52. 61. Important Papers Reminder
    53. 62. “ To-do” list at the end
    54. 63. Preparing Your Hurricane Kit <ul><li>Flashlights/Lanterns </li></ul><ul><li>Extra Batteries </li></ul><ul><li>Portable TV / Radio </li></ul><ul><li>Fire Extinguisher </li></ul><ul><li>First Aid Kit </li></ul><ul><li>Duct Tape / Tarp / Rope </li></ul><ul><li>Toolkit (hammer/pliers/screwdrivers) </li></ul><ul><li>Manual Can Opener </li></ul><ul><li>Collapsible Water Containers </li></ul>70 qt. Bin $10-$15
    55. 64. Water – 1 gal./day per Person http://mywatersafe.com Collapsible containers allow you to store all the water you’ll need for both drinking and cleaning just hours before impact.
    56. 65. http://worldprep.com/ http://www.readykit.com/ All-in-One Kits Offer Convenience $60 and up
    57. 66. Fluorescent LED $30 Battery-Powered Lighting Halogen $40 Xenon / LED $50 LED and fluorescent lights can last days on a set of batteries. A rechargeable light is great is you have a generator. Figure on 1 light per person.
    58. 67. Pocket-Size NOAA $50-$60 Crank Radio LED Light Phone Charger NOAA With TV Band $40-$60 Staying in Touch
    59. 68. X Analog TV Digital TV TV Signals Are Now Digital As of June 12, 2009, all analog TV broadcasts will be discontinued, rendering your analog portable TVs worthless (without a powered converter box + antenna input). $30-$50 $80-$150 http://stormprepare.com/Battery_TV.htm
    60. 69. Battery-Powered Fan A fan can make it easier to get some sleep when the power is out. Some units can operate for several days on a set of batteries. http://www.batterysavers.com/ $30
    61. 70. Generator for Backup Power $350 2 hr. run time $800 Higher output / 12-14 hr. run time
    62. 71. Proper Generator Operation <ul><li>Only operate outdoors </li></ul><ul><li>Keep well away from open doors/windows </li></ul><ul><li>Turn off to refuel </li></ul><ul><li>Unplug extension cords before starting/stopping </li></ul><ul><li>Change oil regularly </li></ul>
    63. 72. $100 $200-$700 Line Conditioners Essential for Clean Power Sensitive electronic equipment requires a stable power source. Never plug such devices directly into a generator, unless your generator has a built-in line conditioner. http://www.lashen.com/vendors/tripplite/conditioners/desktop.asp or http://www.tripplite.com/
    64. 73. Carbon Monoxide Detector $20-$25 Carbon monoxide is a colorless and odorless gas produced as your generator is running. It can kill you and your family as you sleep. CO only CO + smoke $30-$35
    65. 74. Automobile Power Inverter Allows you to use your car to provide AC power to small devices/appliances. Note: Car engine should be running or you’ll run down your battery $30 and up http://www.tripplite.com/
    66. 75. Staying Cool After the Storm $100-$150 A low-cost window AC unit can be installed in minutes. Powered by your generator, it can both cool and dehumidify your bedroom – allowing you to get a good night’s sleep during a prolonged power outage.
    67. 76. Preparing Your Home When a Hurricane Threatens <ul><li>Check your insurance policy & coverage – does your policy cover flood damage? </li></ul><ul><li>Take photos/video of home/possessions and store in a safe place </li></ul><ul><li>Repair any loose boards / fencing </li></ul><ul><li>Secure all loose objects </li></ul><ul><li>Cover your windows </li></ul><ul><li>Secure your garage door(s) </li></ul>
    68. 77. Taping Windows Does NOT Protect Your Home
    69. 78. Proper Window Protection Fabric – Vinyl/PVC/Kevlar Plywood – ¾” Recommended Corrugated Metal Protective Screens Goal – prevent rapid air infiltration, which could cause roof failure and total destruction of your home. Have plywood cut BEFORE the season begins.
    70. 79. Hurricane Jeanne Damage in Florida - 2004 Home on the right had hurricane panels on windows
    71. 81. If You Plan to Evacuate <ul><li>Is your home in a surge zone? </li></ul><ul><li>Locate your evacuation route </li></ul><ul><li>Many shelters don’t accept pets, though that’s changing </li></ul><ul><li>Heed evacuation orders from local officials </li></ul><ul><li>Turn off water/electricity to home before leaving </li></ul><ul><li>Empty your refrigerator/freezer of perishables </li></ul><ul><li>Turn off natural gas supply only if directed to </li></ul><ul><li>Not in a surge zone? Consider post-storm evacuation </li></ul>“ Hide from the wind, run from the surge...”
    72. 82. Hurricane Evacuation Maps for Beaumont/Port Arthur <ul><li>ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/plans_hurr_maps/ssa_2008_inland_evacuation.pdf </li></ul>
    73. 83. Evacuation Zones by Zip Code http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html
    74. 84. Proposed NHC Storm Surge Warning Map
    75. 85. Houston Area Contraflow Locations http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html
    76. 86. Contraflow on I-10 begins at Brookshire
    77. 87. Contraflow on I-45 begins Near Conroe
    78. 88. Contraflow on Hwy. 59 begins north of Humble
    79. 89. Contraflow on Hwy. 290 begins at Hwy. 6
    80. 90. Evacuation Checklist <ul><li>Important Documents (“Grab-and-Go” folder) </li></ul><ul><li>Extra Cash (small bills) </li></ul><ul><li>Prescription Medications (2 weeks) </li></ul><ul><li>Can of Tire Sealer </li></ul><ul><li>Sleeping Bags / Blankets / Pillows </li></ul><ul><li>Air Mattresses or Pads </li></ul><ul><li>Extra Clothes / Shoes </li></ul><ul><li>Toiletries </li></ul><ul><li>Pet Cage ( pets may not be allowed at shelters ) </li></ul>
    81. 91. If You’re Riding it Out <ul><li>Have water containers ready to fill </li></ul><ul><li>Food – 3-7 days w/o refrigeration </li></ul><ul><li>Prescription medications (2 weeks) </li></ul><ul><li>Important documents – waterproof case </li></ul><ul><li>Get extra propane </li></ul><ul><li>Fill gas tanks in vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Ice chest with extra Ice </li></ul><ul><li>Fill containers and freeze </li></ul><ul><li>Toiletries / personal items </li></ul><ul><li>Purchase extra fuel for Generator </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare home as if you’re evacuating </li></ul>Ike – Thu. Sept. 11, 2008
    82. 92. Surviving After the Hurricane Hits <ul><li>No Electricity / Water </li></ul><ul><li>Communications Disrupted </li></ul><ul><li>Basic Supplies Hard to Obtain </li></ul><ul><li>Roads Blocked by Debris </li></ul><ul><li>Damage to Home / Business </li></ul>Hurricane Ike “POD”
    83. 93. Outlook for the 2009 Season
    84. 94. Major Seasonal Predictors <ul><li>Strength of El Niño / La Niña </li></ul><ul><li>Atlantic sea surface temperature regime (“active” or “inactive” cycle) </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-season average surface pressure in main development region </li></ul><ul><li>Analog Years </li></ul>
    85. 95. El Ni ñ o vs. La Ni ña Hello there it El Ni ñ o causes extra thunderstorm development over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes a response in the atmosphere over the Atlantic basin of increased shear and sinking air, causing a drier and more stable atmosphere. La Ni ñ a causes a reduction and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less shear. Upper winds Upper winds
    86. 96. Comparing April 2008 and 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures April 2008 SST Anomalies April 2009 SST Anomalies
    87. 97. El Niño?? Neutral La Niña April 2009 Forecast from NCEP
    88. 98. Warm 1870-1900 Warm 1926-1969 Warm 1995 – 2025? Cool 1900-1926 Cool 1970-1994 The Active Cycle Continues in 2009, Though it’s Probably Peaked Above-Normal SSTs can be Expected for Another 10-15 Years
    89. 99. Cold Atlantic Warm Atlantic Florida and U.S. East Coast Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2006
    90. 100. Analog Years
    91. 101. Some 2009 Forecasts Dr. Bill Gray / Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State): 12 NS / 6 H / 2 MH Dr. Mark Saunders (Tropical Storm Risk – UK): 15 NS / 8 H / 4 MH NC State University 11-14 NS / 6-8 H / No prediction of MH
    92. 102. What We’re Saying at ImpactWeather <ul><li>SSTs closer to normal </li></ul><ul><li>Neutral to weak El Niño by September </li></ul><ul><li>Higher pressures in east Atlantic </li></ul>12 Named Storms 7 Hurricanes 3 Major Hurricanes 2 Hurricanes HSI 20-25 1 Hurricane HSI 25-30 1 Hurricane HSI 30-35
    93. 103. Hurricane Impacts in 2009 <ul><li>Gulf of Mexico – 3 named storms </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. East Coast – 1 named storm 1 near miss </li></ul><ul><li>Caribbean Sea – 4 named storms </li></ul><ul><li>Remain Out to Sea – 6 named storms </li></ul>
    94. 104. 2009 Names Kate Wanda Joaquin Victor Ida Teresa Henri Sam Grace Rose Fred Peter Erika Odette Danny Nicholas Claudette Mindy Bill Larry Ana
    95. 105. <ul><li>What about Global Warming? </li></ul><ul><li>We have heard from reliable sources that a protest has been filed. Thanks to today’s technology we have the unique opportunity to see those assembled at the demonstration ! </li></ul>
    96. 106. To Summarize <ul><li>Prepare Early – Have a Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Build Your Hurricane Supply Kit Now </li></ul><ul><li>Get Additional Supplies as Threat Develops </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare Your Home for Impact </li></ul><ul><li>In a Surge Zone – Evacuate When Directed to </li></ul><ul><li>Riding it Out – Stay Indoors Until Storm Passes </li></ul><ul><li>Post Storm – Beware of Downed Power Lines </li></ul><ul><li>Make Necessary Repairs to Prevent Further Damage </li></ul><ul><li>Practice Good Generator Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Help Your Neighbors </li></ul>
    97. 107. Questions? Hurricane Emily from ISS July 17, 2005 John Phillips, NASA

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