Every society consists of political, economic, social and environmental systems. Stable societies are those in which each of these systems operates articulately with others, while societies characterized by instability are those where there is dissonance between the political, economic, social and environmental systems. It should be noted that the political, social and environmental systems depend on performance of the evolution of the economic system. Brazil is an excellent example of unstable society because it simultaneously presents deep crisis in the economic, political, social and environmental systems associated with the existence of a government as Dilma Rousseff that lacks the capacity to exercise good governance in order to overcome these crises and promote the retake of development. Brazil, as an economic, political, social and environmental organization is disintegrating whose signals are evident in all parts of the country. The stay in power of Dilma Rousseff government makes Brazil is led to bankruptcy and social upheaval.

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FROM PRESENT CHAOS TO GOVERNABILITY IN BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
Every society consists of political, economic, social and environmental systems. Stable
societies are those in which each of these systems operates articulately with others,
while societies characterized by instability are those where there is dissonance between
the political, economic, social and environmental systems. It should be noted that the
political, social and environmental systems depend on performance of the evolution of
the economic system. Brazil is an excellent example of unstable society because it
simultaneously presents deep crisis in the economic, political, social and environmental
systems associated with the existence of a government of Dilma Rousseff who lacks the
capacity to exercise good governability in order to overcome these crises and promote
the resumption of development. Brazil, as an economic, political, social and
environmental organization is disintegrating whose signals are evident in all parts of the
country.
The economic system in force in Brazil shows clear signs of exhaustion because the
country has negative economic growth (less 3% in 2015) with a tendency to depression,
lack of inflation rates (9.85% in 2015), mass unemployment (10 million unemployed in
2015), widespread business bankruptcy (51.4% micro and small enterprises, 22.2% of
mid-sized companies and 26.4% of large companies), deindustrialization (33% of GDP
in the decade of 1980 and 10 % of GDP in 2015), extreme precariousness of public
education and health services and logistical bottleneck. The general expectation in
Brazil is that only a radical change in government will be able to contain the
advancement of economic crisis. In addition, all the political and administrative system
of the country is bankrupt because it is contaminated by corruption and state
administrative apparatus is inefficient and ineffective in meeting the social needs of the
population and environmental protection of Brazil increasingly deteriorated. All these
signs show that there is the deepening crisis in the economic, political, social and
environmental systems in Brazil. The chaos of Brazilian economy makes government,
businesses and people feel a sense of being swept away by a hurricane that permeates
the entire political, economic, social and environmental
All dynamic system such as Brazil's economic system, when it is subject to
"fluctuations" or crises is brought to a bifurcation point from which the system
achieves: 1) a new dynamic stability (system progresses to more advanced level); or, 2)
collapses. In the bifurcation point, the system has to be restructured or will collapse.
This is the situation faced by Brazil, which faces a deep crisis of an economic nature. To
confront the economic crisis, the Dilma Rousseff government takes a "feedback"
negative trying to correct the deviations to return to the original path, ie maintaining the
"status quo" when it should adopt the "feedback" positive to the promotion of change,
the formation of new structures, more sophisticated, more adaptable, more subtle and
innovative to overcome the current crisis and retake the country's economic
development on a new basis.
It is worth noting that the dynamic systems such as Brazil's economic system go into a
state of chaos when fluctuations that were until then corrected by negative feedbacks
auto stabilizing remain out of control. The development trajectory becomes nonlinear:
prevailing trends collapse and in its place comes a range of complex developments.
Rarely chaos is an extended condition. In most cases, it´s only a transitional period
among more stable states. When the fluctuations in the system reach irreversible levels,

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the system reaches a critical point where it collapses into its stable individual
components or undergoes a rapid evolution toward a resistant state to fluctuations
(forward) that destabilize the system.
The turbulence occurring in Brazil today result from the fact that it is a country made up
of economic, political, social and environmental chaotic systems. According to Chaos
Theory or the Science of Complexity, chaos is a "mixture" of disorder and order. Chaos
Theory suggests that each country has a cycle of order, disorder, order, and so on. So
that one leads the other and so on indefinitely. Chaos Theory or Complexity Science
represented one of the great advances in scientific research of the twentieth century
ending with the dichotomy that existed in the traditional approach between determinism
and randomness. While classical science centered on stability, on determinism,
emphasizes the process of negative feedback that tends to reduce the change, returning
the system to its equilibrium position, the positive feedback promotes change and
instability. Example: technological innovation creates a new business and the presence
of this, in turn, stimulates the generation of further innovation.
It appears from the foregoing that, to understand and manage a complex economic,
political, social and environmental system, we must think and act in complex ways
using concepts and practices at least comparable to the complexity of these systems.
This is not the practice of public managers in Brazil who still use obsolete methods of
management of economic, political, social and environmental systems. As an example,
the classical economic sciences that, in the past, offered a number of methods to
understand reality and build economic and organizational models no longer meet the
needs of the contemporary era. We should not continue adopting economic and
organizational models in everything related to them to be treated in isolation and
disconnected from the whole. An indisputable fact is that the old belief in determinism,
in the control and predictability of economic models do not hold in the contemporary
era.
It is important to note that capitalism is a complex, dynamic, adaptive and nonlinear
system because it has elements or agents in large numbers in the economic, political,
social and environmental levels that interacting with each other forming one or more
structures that originate from interactions between such agents. Complex systems are
systems that are characterized by being dynamic whose fundamental features a sensitive
dependence on initial conditions by which, minor differences at the beginning of any
process can lead to totally different situations over time. Chaos theory explains the
operation of complex, dynamic systems. In these systems, several elements are
interacting in unpredictable and random form. This is the case of the capitalist market
economy because there is no effective governance of the economic system in each
country and worldwide.
It is noteworthy that the economic, social and environmental crises of Brazil will only
be overcome with the existence of a government that is able to exercise with
effectiveness governance of the country and it is well able to manage and coordinate the
diverse interests. By not meet these conditions, the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in
power causes Brazil to be brought to the situation of devastated land that is jeopardizing
economic performance and aggravating the social situation in the country. To prevent
Brazil to be brought to bankruptcy and social upheaval, it is necessary that in addition to
the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer, is formed a provisional
government of national unity to convene a Constituent Assembly to institute a

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parliamentary system of government and create mechanisms to enable people: 1) to
exercise direct democracy in highly relevant decisions taken by Parliament and
executive branches at the federal, state and municipal levels approving or rejecting
through plebiscite or referendum, and; 2) to exercise control over elected to the
executive and legislative triggering the institutional mechanisms for the punishment of
those who possibly have betrayed the interests of the electorate speaking out about their
withdrawal or not through referendum, among other measures. After the Constituent
Assembly, would be held new general elections in the country.
To avoid the collapse of the Brazilian economy, the future government of Brazil should
immediately adopt the national economic model developmental of selective opening of
the Brazilian economy that would include the immediate adoption: 1) the renegotiation
of payments of interest of public domestic debt of the country aimed at reducing charges
for 1/3 or ¼ of the federal government budget to raise public savings for investment; 2)
the adoption of fixed exchange rate to replace the floating exchange rate to protect the
domestic industry; 3) control the inflow and outflow of capital; 4) the drastic reduction
of public spending costing reducing the number of ministries to 15 or 20 and the
elimination or reduction to a minimum of commissioned positions which are about
twenty thousand; 5) the sharp reduction in interest rates to encourage investment in
productive activities; 6) the selective import of raw materials and essential commodities
from overseas to reduce expenditures in currency of the country; 7) the reintroduction of
market protection in areas considered strategic for national development; 8) the re-
nationalization of privatized state enterprises considered strategic to national
development; and 9) the adoption of a tax policy capable of ensuring the resources that
the state would need to invest in education, health, social security and infrastructure
sectors, among others and encumber as little as possible the population and the
productive sectors.
It can be seen from the above, that the national economic model developmental of
selective opening of the Brazilian economy would cause Brazil to take on the direction
of your destination, unlike the neo-liberal or social liberal model in place since 1990
makes the future of the country is dictated by the forces of market all of them
committed to national and international financial capital.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 75, membro da Academia Baiana de Educação, engenheiro e doutor em
Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor
universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento
regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do
desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era
Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,
Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) e Energia no Mundo e no Brasil-
Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015).