Chaos and complexity of the business environment in Brazil cause governments, companies and people feel the sense of being swept away by a hurricane that permeates the entire political, economic and social life. This means that to understand and manage a complex economic and social system we must think and act in a complex way using concepts and practices at least comparable to the complexity of this system. This is not the practice of the managers of the national economy who are still using obsolete methods of the economic system administration. The classical economics that, in the past, offered a number of methods to understand reality and build economic and organizational models no longer meet the needs of the contemporary era. We should not continue to take economic and organizational models in which everything related to them to be treated in isolation and disconnected from the whole.

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BRAZIL TOWARDS THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL
COLLAPSE (ANALYSIS UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CHAOS THEORY)
Fernando Alcoforado *
The turmoil taking place in many countries throughout history demonstrate that they are
made up of chaotic systems political, economic and social, unpredictable and sensitive
to initial conditions that are characterized by the inability to predict its future stages
because a small change in initial conditions can cause major implications for their future
behavior. It can be said that each country and the world operate according to the Chaos
Theory which is one of the most important laws of the universe present in the essence of
almost everything around us. According to Chaos Theory or the Science of Complexity,
chaos is a "mixture" of disorder and order that are born of new structures, structures
called "dissipative".
Chaos Theory suggests that the universe has an cycle of order, disorder, order, and so
on. So that one leads to the other and so on, perhaps indefinitely. One of the main
implications of Chaos Theory has to do with the “feedback” (return) generated in
chaotic situations. While closed systems have a negative "feedback", open systems
evolve chaotically by the positive feedback. The negative "feedback" tends to correct a
deviation, leading the system to its original state. Such processes are opposed to change,
as always look back to return to a previous state. On the other hand, the positive
"feedback" promotes change, the formation of new structures, more sophisticated, more
adaptive, more subtle, and innovative. To the extent that implies the creation of a new
structure, the processes are irreversible, unlike the negative "feedback", that tending to
the original state, is reversible.
In the negative "feedback" seek to correct the deviations to return to the original path. In
the positive "feedback", small changes can lead to big changes that lead to new
unknown goals, perhaps better, although we cannot predict exactly where it is that we
will get. While classical science centered on stability, on determinism, emphasizes the
process of negative “feedback” that tends to reduce the change, the system returns to its
equilibrium position, the positive "feedback" promotes change and instability. Example:
technological innovation creates a new business and the presence of this, in turn,
stimulates the generation of further innovation.
The facts of life demonstrate that evolution requires instability for small events to be
expanded which is only possible in a situation of imbalance. Evolution requires
instability, irreversibility and the possibility of making sense of small events so that a
structural change occurs. Once the process results in the creation of a complex structure,
the dissipation structure, occurs a new cycle of imbalance and the chaos resumes where
are occurring instability or fluctuations. For Prigogine (Russian chemist, Nobel Prize in
Chemistry 1977 for their thermodynamics of irreversible processes in studies with the
formulation of the theory of dissipative structures), all systems contain constantly
floating subsystems. Sometimes, a single change in one can be as powerful as a result of
a positive "feedback" breaking any existing organization. At that time, called singular
moment or bifurcation point, is inherently impossible to know where will evolve the
system (improbability of state): disintegrate into chaos or jump to a new higher level of
organization and differentiated ie, a new dissipative structure.

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When is subject to "fluctuations” a dynamic system as the Brazil economic system leads
to a bifurcation point from which the system reaches a new dynamic stability
(breakthrough or to another level more advanced) or collapses, according to Ervin
Laszlo [O Ponto do Caos (The Chaos Point). São Paulo: Editora Cultrix, 2000]. In the
bifurcation point the system has to be restructured or collapse. This is the situation faced
by Brazil's economy, which is facing a deep crisis. To face the crisis, the Dilma
Rousseff government takes a negative "feedback" trying to correct the deviations to
return to the original path when it should adopt the positive "feedback" to the promotion
of change, the formation of new structures, more sophisticated, more adaptable, more
subtle and innovative to overcome the current crisis and retake the development of the
country on a new basis.
Chaos Theory or the Science of Complexity presents an interesting perspective from the
point of view of its application to the economy mainly in the phenomena of explanation
that seem to have a disruptive behavior. Behind the apparent disorder in the economy,
there is a dynamic that can be explained by mathematical techniques and appropriate
statistics, typical of this theory. In dynamic systems, such as the economy, which
constantly change over time, small changes at a given time may be the cause of great
change in the future. The global crisis that erupted in 2008 in the United States
produced several consequences that manifest today. Whereas the capitalist economy is a
dynamic system, nonlinear and complex, the difficulty to plan and anticipate problems,
requires consideration of the long-term development prospects. Means you have to plan
the economy recognizing that chaos and complexity are present and that should handle
this scenario the best possible way. One of the great difficulties of the Brazil overcome
the crisis ravaging the country lies in the fact adopt the neoliberal model that rejects
government planning.
Brazil, as economic, social and political organization, is disintegrating. The signs of
disintegration are evident in all parts of the country. The neoliberal economic model in
place shows clear signs of exhaustion because it shows decline in economic growth with
a tendency to stagflation, rising inflation rates, very high tax burden, increasing debt of
public administration, precarious transport and energy infrastructure, failure of public
education and health services, de-industrialization, logistical bottleneck and precipitous
drop in the trade balance. In addition, all the political and administrative system of the
country is contaminated by corruption and state administrative apparatus is inefficient
and ineffective. All these signs tend to deepen the Brazilian economic crisis fueling the
emergence of collapse of the national economic, political and social system.
Chaos and complexity of the business environment in Brazil cause governments,
companies and people feel the sense of being swept away by a hurricane that permeates
the entire political, economic and social life. This means that to understand and manage
a complex economic and social system we must think and act in a complex way using
concepts and practices at least comparable to the complexity of this system. This is not
the practice of the managers of the national economy who are still using obsolete
methods of the economic system administration. The classical economics that, in the
past, offered a number of methods to understand reality and build economic and
organizational models no longer meet the needs of the contemporary era. We should not
continue to take economic and organizational models in which everything related to
them to be treated in isolation and disconnected from the whole.
*Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and

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consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.