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Date,GDP,GDPIMPR,LOGGDP,GrowthRate,li1,li2,T1950Q1,94.3,NA,4.546.docx
- 8. 2011Q1,225.929,1,5.4202207906,0.0003231626,7,-1,244 2011Q2,224.068,0,5.4119495772,-0.0082712134,7,1,245 2011Q3,222.164,0,5.4034158479,-0.0085337293,5,1,246 2011Q4,221.734,0,5.4014784653,-0.0019373826,4,2,247 2012Q1,222.325,1,5.4041402753,0.00266181,2,2,248 2012Q2,222.255,0,5.4038253713,-0.000314904,0,3,249 2012Q3,223.295,1,5.4084937672,0.0046683959,-1,4,250 2012Q4,224.934,1,5.4158070258,0.0073132586,0,6,251 2013Q1,225.81,1,5.4196939377,0.0038869119,0,5,252 2013Q2,226.353,1,5.4220957276,0.0024017899,-1,4,253 2013Q3,227.306,1,5.4262971273,0.0042013997,-1,2,254 2013Q4,226.913,0,5.4245666841,-0.0017304432,0,1,255 2014Q1,226.55,0,5.4229656711,-0.001601013,-1,1,256 2014Q2,227.516,1,5.4272205656,0.0042548945,-2,0,257 2014Q3,229.343,1,5.4352186995,0.007998134,-2,-1,258 2014Q4,231.583,1,5.4449383406,0.009719641,-2,-1,259 2015Q1,234.097,1,5.4557355594,0.0107972188,-1,0,260 2015Q2,236.829,1,5.4673383617,0.0116028023,2,2,261 2015Q3,237.497,1,5.4701549918,0.0028166301,3,4,262 2015Q4,237.098,0,5.4684735578,-0.001681434,2,5,263 Open Course Library ENVS&100 Learning Activities READINGS FOR Module VI: The Atmosphere: Air, Weather and Climate Week 2 of Module VI: Climate & Climate Change/Global Warming The Habitable Planet Textbook http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/
- 9. • Unit 12 : Earth's Changing Climate Earth's climate is a sensitive system that is subject to dramatic shifts over varying time scales. Today human activities are altering the climate system by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which raises global temperatures. In this unit, examine the science behind global climate change and explore its potential impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies. 1. Introduction 2. Tipping Earth's Energy Balance 3. Climate Change: What the Past Tells Us 4. Past Warming: The Eocene Epoch 5. Global Cooling: The Pleistocene Epoch 6. Present Warming and the Role of CO2 7. Observed Impacts of Climate Change 8. Other Potential Near-Term Impacts 9. Major Laws and Treaties 10. Further Reading IPCC's Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report And read all 3 of these: The 10 Things You Need to Know from the New IPCC Climate Report http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-10-things-you-need-to-know- from-the-new-ipcc-climate-report/ or a PDF version: http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/The10ThingsIPCC2014.pdf and Certainty vs. Uncertainty: Understanding Scientific Terms about Climate Change
- 10. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/sci ence/certainty-vs-uncertainty.html or a PDF version: http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/CertaintyVsUncertainty.pdf and IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf or: http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/IPCC2014SynthesisSPM.pdf NOTE: For additional information from reliable, credible, scientific sources, please see my Climate Change page: http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/ClimateChange.html For example, there are high-quality, readable publications that address the most common "climate myths". I also include links to documents referred to in the film An Inconvenient Truth (which you will be watching for this class). http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/ http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-10-things-you-need-to-know- from-the-new-ipcc-climate-report/ http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/the10thingsipcc2014.pdf http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/sci ence/certainty-vs-uncertainty.html http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/certaintyvsuncertainty.pdf http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
- 11. report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/ipcc2014synthesisspm.pdf http://scidiv.bellevuecollege.edu/gj/climatechange.html Gwyneth Jones's Global Climate Change Links & Resources List This last modified: Sunday, 6/15/14 Please do send additional suggestions - I will keep expanding this list How do you know what you know?...And how will you know if you're wrong? What do you (think you) know about global climate change?... Pre-Learning SURVEYS: Which of the "6 Americas" would you say you are? -- Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, Dismissive (Yale U & George Mason U) -- Added 2/4/14 Survey #1: Global Warming/Climate Change Survey #2: Science, Economics, Government Denialism: What Is It And How Should Scientists Respond? (Diethelm & McKee, 2009) - .pdf -- Added 2/4/14 NOTE: If you are not already in one of my classes and you decide to take one or both of these surveys -- or a related one not listed below -- I would be very interested in a copy of your results! :-) ~GJ
- 12. Pre-Learning "FACT or OPINION?" Scientific Method Activity & Logical Fallacies: -- Added 2/4/14 A fact is something that is true and is supported by evidence. An opinion is something you believe or feel to be true and is open to debate. A logical fallacy is a flaw in reasoning. Grades 3-12+: Full document .doc or .pdf (17 pages) - Examples given are: Trees, groundhogs, plate tectonics, global climate change Or just the handout (5 page .pdf) or extra images (1 page .pdf) or fallacies bkgd (11 page .pdf) PreK-Grade 5: Coloring & Drawing .doc or .pdf (5 pages) NOTE: This is adaptable for all ages, PreK through college. (I've found it interesting to hear my 3- and 6- year-olds discussing what is fact vs. what is opinion.) If you use or adapt it, I would be very interested in your feedback. :-) ~GJ Climate Change Evidence, Impacts, and Choices: Answers to Common Questions about the Science of Climate Change ("Responding to climate change is about making choices in the face of risk." ~NRC) Part I. Evidence for Human-Caused Climate Change How do we know that Earth has warmed? How do we know that greenhouse gases lead to warming? How do we know that humans are causing greenhouse gases to increase? How much are human activities heating Earth? How do we know the current warming trend isn’t caused by the Sun?
- 13. How do we know the current warming trend isn’t caused by natural cycles? What other climate changes and impacts have been observed? The Ice Ages Part II. Warming, Climate Changes, and Impacts in the 21st Century and Beyond How do scientists project future climate change? How will temperatures be affected? How is precipitation expected to change? How will sea ice and snow be affected? How will coastlines be affected? How will ecosystems be affected? How will agriculture and food production be affected? Part III. Making Climate Choices How does science inform emissions choices? What are the choices for reducing greenhouse gas emissions? What are the choices for preparing for the impacts of climate change? Why take action if there are still uncertainties about the risks of climate change? Conclusion Climate Proxies Lecture (how do scientists know about past climate?) Climate Change Extra Credit Lab (with thanks to Kathryn Hoppe! [GRCC]) Climate Hot Map: Global Warming Effects Around the World (Union of Concerned Scientists [UCS]) Resources About Global Warming and Climate Change (excellent list by University of Arizona's Robert Strom [UA]) Ethics and Global Climate Change (Nature) -- Added 5/16/14 The Keeling Curve (UCSD) -- Added 6/15/14 Good starting points...
- 14. Latest Climate Trends (TED Talk) Climate Change: A Summary of the Science (The Royal Society–UK) Climate Change Controversies: A Simple Guide (The Royal Society–UK) Back to Basics: FAQs About Global Warming and Climate Change (US Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]) Climate Change: Science and Impacts Fact Sheet (University of Michigan's Center for Sustainable Systems) Climate Change: Policy and Mitigation Fact Sheet (University of Michigan's Center for Sustainable Systems) Global Climate Change Indicators (NOAA National Climatic Data Center [NCDC]) Global Warming Basics (Pew Center on Global Climate Change [Pew Center/C2ES]) Certainty vs. Uncertainty: Understanding Scientific Terms About Climate Change (Union of Concerned Scientists) Atlas of Population and Environment: Climate Change - and Background Sources (American Association for the Advancement of Science [AAAS]) Climate Change: Oh, It's Real. (8 TED Talks) -- Added 1/10/14 IPCC 4: Synthesis Report (2007--Report 5 due in 2014) and IPCC 5: Summary for Policymakers (newly published; see orange text boxes & Figure SPM.6) and IPCC Report 5: The Physical Science Basis (newly published) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]) -- Updated 1/10/14 The following terms are by the IPCC to indicate the assessed
- 15. likelihood: Term* Likelihood of the outcome Virtually certain 99–100% probability Very likely 90–100% probability Likely 66–100% probability About as likely as not 33–66% probability Unlikely 0–33% probability Very unlikely 0–10% probability Exceptionally unlikely 0–1% probability * Additional terms (extremely likely: 95–100% probability, more likely than not: >50–100% probability, and extremely unlikely: 0–5% probability) may also be used when appropriate. Books & films, podcasts & blogs... An Inconvenient Truth (film - "AIT") Bellevue College Library Media Center - 3 out of 3 copies currently available King County Library System - 19 out of 25 DVDs currently available YouTube Paramount Pictures - streaming Amazon.Com - streaming or DVD, currently $0.17 to $9.99 The 11th Hour (film) The One Degree Factor (episode of Strange Days on Planet Earth) A Sea Change (film) Merchants of Doubt (book) Doubt Is Their Product (book) Advancing the Science of Climate Change (book) Story of Stuff (short film) Pew Center/C2ES PodcastsGuardian (UK) Climate Change Podcasts
- 16. NPR Climate Connections Podcasts Other resources... Washington state... Climate Change in Washington State (Washington State Department of Ecology [ECY]) Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound (UW's Climate Impacts Group / Puget Sound Action Team [PSAT]) Climate Change and Public Health in Washington - or Executive Summary (Collaborative on Health and the Environment–Washington (State) [CHE-Wa]) Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (NWCAR) -- Added 1/10/14 Introduction: The Changing Northwest (Chapter 1) 1 Regional Introduction: The Physical, Ecological, and Social Template -- Landscape and Climate; Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats; Population and Economy; Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change; Northwest Tribes; A Region Shaped by Water 2 A Focus on Risk 3 Looking Toward the Future -- Common Themes in a Changing Climate; Climate Change Adaptation in the Northwest 4 Conclusion Climate: Variability and Change in the Past and the Future (Chapter 2) 1 Understanding Global and Regional Climate Change 2 Past Changes in Northwest Climate: Means 3 Past Changes in Northwest Climate: Extremes 4 Projected Future Changes in the Northwest -- Mean Temperature and Precipitation; Extreme
- 17. Temperature and Precipitation Water Resources: Implications of Changes in Temperature and Precipitation (Chapter 3) 1 Introduction 2 Key Impacts -- Snowpack, Stream Flow, and Reservoir Operations; Water Quality 3 Consequences for Specific Sectors -- Irrigated Agriculture; Hydropower; Floodplain Infrastructure; Municipal Drinking Water Supplies; Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems; A Salmon Runs Through It; Recreation 4 Adaptation 5 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs Coasts: Complex Changes Affecting the Northwest's Diverse Shorelines (Chapter 4) 1 Introduction 2 Sea Level Rise -- Effects of Tectonic Motion and Other Local and Regional Factors; Combined Impacts of Sea Level Rise, Coastal Storms, and ENSO Events 3 Ocean Acidification 4 Ocean Temperature 5 Consequences for Coastal and Marine Natural Systems -- Habitat Loss; Changes in Species’ Ranges and Abundances; Altered Ecological Processes and Changes in the Marine Food Web 6 Consequences for Coastal Communities and the Built Environment -- Coastal Transportation Infrastructure; Coastal Communities; Coping with Sea Level Rise Risks Today and Tomorrow in Olympia, Washington 7 Economic Consequences of Coastal Impacts -- Marine Fisheries; Other Economic Impacts 8 Adaptation -- Nisqually Delta Case Study: Restoring Salmon and Wildlife Habitat in Puget Sound; Neskowin, Oregon, Case Study: Organizing to Cope with an Eroding Coastline
- 18. 9 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs Ecosystems: Vegetation, Disturbance, and Economics (Chapter 5) 1 Introduction 2 Direct Climate Sensitivities: Changes in Distribution, Abundance, and Function of Plant Communities and Species -- Changes in Non-forest Systems: High-Elevation Habitats, Grasslands, and Shrublands 3 Indirect Effects of Climate Change through Forest Disturbances -- Wildfires; Forest Insects; Forest Diseases; Disturbance Interactions and Cumulative Effects 4 Implications for Economics and Natural Systems -- Economic Consequences (Timber Market Effects; Economic Effects of Disturbance; Non-Timber Market Effects; Valuing Ecosystem Services); Consequences for Natural Systems 5 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs 6 Adaptive Capacity and Implications for Vulnerability Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation (Chapter 6) 1 Introduction 2 Environmental, Economic, and Social Importance 3 Vulnerabilities to Projected Climate Change 4 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Selected Subsectors - - Annual Crops (Dryland Cereal Cropping Systems; Irrigated Annual Cropping Systems); Perennial Crops (Tree Fruit and Small Fruit; Wine Grapes and Wines); Animal Production Systems (Rangeland; Pasture and Forage; Dairy and Other Confined Animal Operations); Other Northwest Agriculture Subsectors 5 Potential to Adapt to Changing Climates -- Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Systems 6 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs Human Health: Impacts and Adaptation (Chapter 7) 1 Introduction
- 19. 2 Key Impacts of Climate Changes on Human Health -- Temperature; Extreme Weather Events (Storms and Flooding; Drought; Wildfires); Aerobiological Allergens and Air Pollution; Infectious Diseases (Vector-Borne; Water-Borne; Fungal); Harmful Algal Blooms; Mental Health; Potential Health Costs 3 Northwest Adaptation Activities 4 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs Northwest Tribes: Cultural Impacts and Adaptation Responses (Chapter 8) 1 Introduction 2 Tribal Culture and Sovereignty 3 Climatic Changes and Effects: Implications for Tribes in the Northwest -- Water Resources and Availability;Water Temperature and Chemistry; Case Study: The Effect of Climate Change on Baseflow Support in the Nooksack River Basin and Implications on Pacific Salmon Species Protection and Recovery; Sea Level Rise; Forests and Wildfire 4 Tribal Initiatives in the Northwest -- Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessments; Climate Change Adaptation Plans; Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Addressing Climate Change; Research and Education; Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions 5 Tribal Research and Capacity Needs and Considerations for the Future -- Tribal Research and Capacity Needs; Considerations for the Future Human health... A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change - or Executive Summary (Environmental Health Perspectives / National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences [EHP/NIEHS]) Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution - and Technical Appendix (Union of Concerned
- 20. Scientists [UCS]) Natural world... State of the Nation's Ecosystems 2008: Focus on Climate Change (Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment) The Darkening Sea: What Carbon Emissions Are Doing to the Ocean (Elizabeth Kolbert in The New Yorker) Process of science... Past Climates on Earth (University of Michigan) NASA Climate Research Groups (NASA) The Foundation of Climate Science: Testimony to Congress (Testimony of James J. McCarthy, Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University, before The Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, U.S. House of Representatives) State of the Climate in 2010: Chapter 2--Climate Indicators (NOAA National Climatic Data Center [NCDC]) Curriculum... Climate Change: Connections and Solution s (High School Unit) - and Middle School Unit (Facing the Future) Other resources...
- 21. NPR Climate Connections Special Series (National Public Radio [NPR]) Fact Sheets & Quick Reference Guides (University of Michigan's Center for Sustainable Systems), e.g.: Social Development IndicatorsCarbon Footprints U.S. Environmental Footprint Ethics and psychology... Ethics and Global Climate Change (Nature) -- Added 5/16/14 Are Climate Sceptics More Likely to be Conspiracy Theorists? (& cognitive study in press) ("The findings provide yet more evidence that a rejection of climate science has more to with ideological views than scientific literacy") Political interference... NC Considers Making Sea Level Rise Illegal (Scientific American Plugged-In) Political Interference with Climate Change Science under the Bush Administration (U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform) White House Deletion of Large Sections of Testimony on Public
- 22. Health Impacts of Global Warming by the Director of the CDC (U.S. Senate) Bush Aide Softened Greenhouse Gas Links to Global Warming and The Handwritten Changes (shown in "AIT") (Andrew Revkin in The New York Times) Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy and Article (Forbes) To contact me, please email [email protected] This website is copyrighted © 2012-2014, Gwyneth Jones, and may not be reproduced without written permission. BC Science Division | BC Science Advising | BC Science Study Center GJ's Home Page | BC Home Page | Google Search Engine quote> 5/22/19, 11(52 AM Page 1 of 1 Case_GDPDateGDPGDPIMPRLOGGDPGrowthRateli1li2T1950
- 33. 142502012Q4224.93415.41580702580.0073132586062512013Q 1225.8115.41969393770.0038869119052522013Q2226.35315.4 2209572760.0024017899- 142532013Q3227.30615.42629712730.0042013997- 122542013Q4226.91305.4245666841- 0.0017304432012552014Q1226.5505.4229656711-0.001601013- 112562014Q2227.51615.42722056560.0042548945- 202572014Q3229.34315.43521869950.007998134-2- 12582014Q4231.58315.44493834060.009719641-2- 12592015Q1234.09715.45573555940.0107972188- 102602015Q2236.82915.46733836170.0116028023222612015Q 3237.49715.47015499180.0028166301342622015Q4237.09805. 4684735578-0.00168143425263 MOOC Econometrics Case project Notes: • See website for how to submit your answers and how feedback is organized. • This exercise uses the datafile Case GDP and requires a computer.
- 34. • The dataset Case GDP is available on the website. Goals and skills being used: • Get hands-on experience with applying econometric methods. • Apply techniques and interpret results related to discrete choice models. • Apply techniques and interpret results using time series models. Background A good understanding of the macroeconomic cycle with alternating recession and expansion periods (also known as the business cycle) is important for various decision makers. Macroeconomic policy is often based on predictions of this cycle, and such predictions can influence investment decisions of large companies. Central banks and other institutions often publish so-called leading indicators that are helpful to predict the state of the economy. These indicators are based on macroeconomic series like job formation, interest rates, credit, demand, and supply. In this case project you will predict GDP growth by using
- 35. quarterly data on a hypothetical economy from 1950 quarter 1 to 2015 quarter 4. The data set contains the GDP of the economy and two leading indicators li1 and li2. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of econometric models, you need to split the data in two parts. As estimation sample you take the period from 1951 to 2010 (240 observations), and as evaluation sample you take the period from 2011 to 2015 (20 observations). The first year of data (1950) is used only to create lags of variables. The project consists of two parts. In the first part (a-c) you use logit models to predict whether the economic situation improves or declines, and in the second part (d-g) you use time series models to predict the size of the growth rate of the economy. Data The data file Case GDP contains the following variables: • DATE: Date of the observation; • GDP: Gross Domestic Product of the economy; • GDPIMPR: dummy variable indicating whether the GDP has increased (1) or decreased (0);
- 36. • LOGGDP: Log of Gross Domestic Product; • GrowthRate: Relative growth of the economy: GrowthRatet = log(GDPt ) − log(GDPt−1); • li1: First leading indicator; • li2: Second leading indicator; • T: Linear trend (where the first observation, for 1950 quarter 1, is defined as 0). Page 1 of 2 (a) The table below summarizes the outcomes of four logit models to explain the direction of economic development (GDPIMPR) for the period 1951 to 2010. Perform three Likelihood Ratio tests to prove both the individual and the joint significance of the 1-quarter lags of li1 and li2, where the alternative hypothesis is always the model with both indicators included.
- 37. Dependent variable: GDPIMPR Sample size: 240 Variable Coeff Coeff Coeff Coeff Constant 0.693 0.812 0.636 0.729 li1(-1) x −0.340 x −0.372 li2(-1) x x −0.087 −0.120 Log likelihood −152.763 −139.747 −149.521 −134.178 (b) It could be that the leading indicators lead the economy by more than 1 quarter. The table below summarizes outcomes of four logit models that differ in the lags of the indicators. For what reason can we use McFadden R2 to select the best lag structure among these four models? Compute the four values of McFadden R2 (with four decimals) and conclude which model is optimal according to this criterion. Dependent variable: GDPIMPR Sample size: 240 1 2 3 4
- 38. Variable Coeff Coeff Coeff Coeff Constant 0.729 0.731 0.746 0.749 li1(-1) −0.372 −0.366 x x li1(-2) x x −0.429 −0.421 li2(-1) −0.120 x −0.131 x li2(-2) x −0.121 x −0.129 Log likelihood −134.178 −134.126 −130.346 −130.461 (c) Use the logit model 3 of part (b) (with li1(-2) and li2(-1)) to calculate the predicted probability of economic growth for each of the 20 quarters of the evaluation sample. Assess the predictive performance by means of the prediction-realization table and the hit rate, using a cut-off value of 0.5. Evaluate the outcomes. (d) Perform the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test on LOGGDP to confirm that this variable is not stationary. Use only the data in the estimation sample and include constant, trend, and a single lag in the test equation (L = 1, see Lecture 6.4). Present the coefficients of the test regression and the relevant test statistic, and state your conclusion.
- 39. (e) Consider the following model: GrowthRatet = α + ρGrowthRatet−1 + β1li1t−k1 + β2li2t−k2 + εt . Here the numbers k1 and k2 denote the lag orders of the leading indicators. Estimate four versions of this model on the estimation sample from 1951 to 2010, by setting k1 and k2 equal to either 1 or 2. Show that the model with k1 = k2 = 1 gives the largest value for R2, and present the four coefficients of this model in six decimals. (f ) Perform the Breusch-Godfrey test for first-order residual serial correlation for the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1. Does the test outcome signal misspecification of the model? (g) Use the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1 to generate a set of twenty one-step-ahead predictions for the growth rates in each quarter of the period 2011 to 2015. Note that the required values of the lagged leading indicators are available for each of these forecasts. Calculate the root mean squared error of these forecasts and present a time series graph of the predictions and the actual growth rates. Page 2 of 2