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Conditions in the Commercial Real Estate Debt Markets
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Presentation by Tom Fink at the 2013 EDR Client Summit
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Conditions in the Commercial Real Estate Debt Markets
1.
May 8, 2013
2.
2 ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─
3.
3 Source: Trepp, LLC
4.
4
5.
5
6.
6 Source: Trepp, LLC
7.
7 Source: Trepp, LLC
8.
8 Note: CMBS Delinquencies
include Foreclosure, REO, Non Performing Balloon Loans Source: Trepp-CREFC Portfolio Lender Survey, Trepp BankNavigator
9.
9Source: Trepp-CREFC Portfolio
Lender Survey, Trepp BankNavigator
10.
10 12.41% 10.77% 9.17%13.59% 6.36% 12.94% 6.29% 8.08% 11.37% Source: Trepp, LLC
11.
11
12.
Office - CBD Office
- Sub Apartment Retail Industrial 75 95 115 135 155 175 195 215 235 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Source: Moody’s/RCA
13.
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 '02 '03 '04
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Billions Individual PortFolio -100% 0% 100% 200% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Year-Over-Year % Change Source: RCA
14.
Apartment Office Retail Industrial Hotel YOY Change (bps)2012
Avg Cap Rate2012 Volume ($bil) YOY Change in Volume $85 $78 $53 $37 $20 47% 19% 20% 4% -2% 6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 7.8% (23) (28) (25) (8) (1) Source: RCA
15.
Office - CBD Office
- Sub Apartment Retail Industrial 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Source: RCA
16.
16
17.
17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 Banks CMBS Life Cos Other
18.
18 Source: Trepp, LLC
19.
19 Source: Trepp, LLC
20.
20
21.
21
22.
22
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