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Climate Change 2015: Continuing Education Programming Implications
- 1. Climate Change, 2015: Programming implications
- 3. Growing with the flows • Economic value is moving from “stock flows” to “knowledge flows.” • Return on Assets for US firms declined by 75% since 1965. • US “competitive” intensity has more than doubled in the past 40 years. • Exponential price/performance gains in computing, storage, and bandwidth drives constant replacement of infrastructure. • The ‘topple rate’ –the rate at which sector leaders are replaced by newcomers-- has more than doubled. According to The Deloitte Center for the Edge, this is evidence of a “deep change occurring in today’s epochal ‘Big Shift,’” –a fundamental alteration of the business landscape on a global scale, “catalyzed by the emergence and spread of digital technology.” Success for business and professionals will belong to those who build relationships to create value, people who can bridge technologies, cultures, and policy differences to collaborate and find solutions. Source: “Measuring the forces of long-term change, The 2009 Shift Index.” J. Hagel, J.S. Brown, L. Davison (Deloitte Center for the Edge. (2009)
- 4. Unemployment rates and educational attainment 4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 <HS Diploma HS grad, no college Some college or associate degree Bachelor's or higher Certification and unique learning experience boosts earning power and professional viability. Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm
- 5. Traditional sectors are restructuring, they are not returning to ‘normal.’ • Finance/banking • Media • Tourism • Real Estate • Specialized areas (e.g. web and java developers, project managers, data analysts, consultants) • Accounting/financial control • Mobile and Web Apps development • CRM While total employment in these fields may decline, opportunities for the advancement and/or inclusion of people with important new skills will increase.
- 6. What are ‘Green’ jobs anyway? White collar : Green collar? Private: STEMC (Science, Technology, Engineering, Management, Commercialization, e.g. Sales & Marketing, Business Process) Public: Policy, Governance, Regulatory, Compliance Blue collar : Green collar? Private: MIM (Manufacturing, Installation, Maintenance) Public: Monitoring, Inspection, Enforcement No collar : Green collar? Landscape Design Architectural Design Industrial Design
- 7. Interlocking ‘Green’ Components • Energy Extraction & Renewables Development • Energy development, generation, management & distribution • All manufacturing sectors • Transportation • Environmental Mgt. • Construction • Small Business (retail, installation, maintenance • Regulation • Finance • Business operations Embodies the new economics of sustainability
- 8. Uncertainty upon uncertainty • Industries? • Occupations? • Credentials? • Disciplines? What does ‘Green’ mean? How would we do mobile? What’s the difference between inter-, multi-, trans-, and cross- disciplines?” We all know about the uncertainty of ‘health care’: can we afford it, who will pay, will we have it? But look at the prospects for employment? Home care, paperwork, outpatient, nursing homes…. In the meantime, Medical schools are cutting enrollment, and insurance rates are skyrocketing.
- 9. Inter-, Multi-, Trans-, Cross- • Real-Estate • Media Industry & Design • Hospitality , Tourism, Sports • Global Affairs • Philanthropy, Fundraising • Programs in Business Sector Discipline Range • Skills • Occupation • Expertise •Specialized knowledge • Excellence • Agility • Collaboration • Confidence • Imagination • Relationships • Strategy
- 10. Prying value from process, the Health Information Technology (HIT) case • The HIT components of the stimulus package, collectively labeled HITECH in the law, contained $19 billion for health information technology and health information exchange • The legislation contains $2 billion in grants to create a national system of computerized health records and $17 billion in higher Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements for physicians and hospitals to adopt the technology • Starting in 2011, physicians would get bonuses between $44,000 and $64,000, and up to several million dollars per hospital, if they show they have computerized their medical record systems • In 2015, any hospital participating in Medicare that does not meet the electronic records use standard will be penalized a percent of their reimbursements through the federal programs, with similar penalties being phased in for physicians Data Analytics +Media Industry & Design + Steinhart? Courant? NYU-Poly? Langone Medical Center? Source: New York Times, March 2009
- 11. • HIT support needs • Business process development • Training for usage in software and records management • Up to $70K/office under ARRA to install HIT • Training for usage in software and records management • HIT support needs • Up to $2M under ARRA to install HIT • HIT support needs, including security, privacy, networking • Training for usage in software and records management • HIT infrastructure support, including security, privacy, networking, installation, technical support • Software/hardware development for products aligning with health records standard • Training for usage in software and records management • HIT support needs 11 Health Information Technology initiatives require new skill sets. Do we have them? Can we get them? National Electronic Health Records Implementation and Maintenance Requires Support Across Functions Hospitals Physicians’ Offices Healthcare Providers IT, Software Providers, IT Service Providers Community Health Agencies Health Information Technology
- 12. • Healthcare has a virtual monopoly on the informatics franchise though nearly every field from marketing to public policy has an equally urgent need for practitioners trained in informatics. • The informatics specialist has developed technical, numerate and analytical skills and the ability to think creatively, logically, and quantitatively, • Knowledge of software design, distributed systems, multimedia systems, networks and the internet – and of technical and social challenges that they pose • Developed abilities in testing, documentation and evaluation of systems and the ability to recognize the capabilities, limitations and risks of computer-based solutions • Experience examining the design of intelligent computer systems and an understanding of intelligence in both machines and humans (Description by the University of Sussex). 12 “Informatics is the study of information, its structure, its communication, and its use. As society becomes increasingly information intensive, the needs to understand, create, and apply new methods for modeling, managing, and acquiring information has never been greater…” -Stanford University Source: Durkin DA, “An Ocean of Data Requires Trans-disciplinary Education,” August 2009. Informatics
- 13. Data Visualization is more than 3D. It is a bridge across multiple dimensions • Animation: The movie Avatar typifies the trend into more realistic-looking animation, relying on motion-capture technology and special effects to create an alternate 3D world. As people increasingly seek out humans in animation, the demand for improved motion-capture technology and producers will continue to grow. • Gaming: In fall 2009, Sony announced that it “plans to lead the way in delivering new 3D-viewing experiences by bringing 3D to the home in 2010.” This effort will include a 3D mode on PS3. Games are continuing to be developed for professional use in leadership training, medicine, and other applications as well. 13 Sources: http://www.engadget.com/2009/09/04/ps3s-new-3d-mode-captured-on-video-coming-in-2010-to-all-exist/; http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/200909/09-099E/; http://www.gazette.net/stories/083107/businew11739_32356.shtml; Millersville University, “Project Will Allow Students to ‘Fly’ into Weather Fronts, PR Newswire, 12/1/09; http://www.barco.com/medical/pressrelease/1670/. • Medical: 3D rendering and visualization has been a useful tool for teaching, diagnosing, and predicting medical events. In coming years, virtual experiences allowing students to navigate a 3D rendering of a brain will most likely come to fruition.© 2009 FOX
- 14. New devices foster new ways to channel information flows From interesting to important in months… Gesture interface make the cognitive aspect of interacting with images take on a entirely new meaning… the differencing between pointing and doing has narrowed.
- 15. Analytics affect the quality and cost of care • Evidence-based medicine • Hospital Acquired Infections • Infectious Disease Control • Prevention & healthy living • Diagnostics • Health Information Technology • Reduced costs, better care
- 16. Analytics has become the most potent source of decision intervention Much of the shift in the pace and location of decision making is due to the enormous quantity of evidence being left behind every human action. Analytics today, is already contributing more to organizational decision making than the “decision” culture or leadership. Source: Thomas H. Davenport, “How Organizations Make Better Decisions” (International Inst. For Analytics, 2010)
- 17. The mobile dimension • An iPad is not a large iPod, any more then it’s an ‘electronic textbook.’ • “location” information can tell you what your block looked like in 1868. New content models. • With all your computing power in ‘the cloud’ your “device” can be implanted under your skin. •‘Thin clients’ will be designed to for specific purposes. • Sensors will compute your options before you know your intent. • How much is it worth to know what you need to know now?
- 18. Innovative proposals for learning, can embrace today’s challenges and position SCPS among new and existing audiences • Retrain laid-off workers for roles in areas with current career opportunities • Prepare graduates for positions in emerging fields such as renewable/“green” energy and health information • Acknowledge social trends that may alter/expand the SCPS audience today • Engage prospects, current students, and alumni via social networking
- 19. “People increasingly seek rich and serendipitous face to face encounters” –Deloitte’s “The Big Shift.” http://www.youtube.com/user/misterfawlty#p/ While people have become obsessed with tweeting, txting, ‘crackberries’, smartphones and Wi-Fi , places –like those at NYU are still the ultimate connection!
- 20. Stop to think about your daily routine! • The price/performance capability of computing, storage, and bandwidth has contributed to an adoption rate that is two to five times faster than previous infrastructure turnovers.
- 22. P&CE’s role: Bridging the flows? What are we doing to close the gap?
- 23. Spring is coming. All things are possible.
Editor's Notes
- Even if everything else around us changes, we have to remain true to our core value: the needs of New York’s learners needs come first.
- Unemployment rates hit just about every sector of the economy in 2009. As expected, people with less than a high school diploma were the hardest hit –rising to 15.6 percent unemployment by February 2010. (Chart only shows Oct ’08 to Nov. 09.) HS grad showed the sharpest increase in unemployment rates, though those with some college faired a little better, and those with a bachelor’s degree or higher saw and increase in unemployment rate from about 3% to about 4.5%, about a 1 percent jump, compared to a nearly 5% increase for those with less than a HS diploma. A good many employment experts are saying that this “volatility” is likely to persist through 2015, and possibly longer. It maybe the ‘new normal’ We are used to citing higher unemployment rates for people with low levels of educational attainment, but what is new year is the rapid swings across all levels. What is happening?
- Employment in some skill areas will grow, even as the overall size of the workforce in that economic sector declines. But even where there is growth there will be changes in roles people play. Increasingly, the “specialists” will be expected to understand more about the the dynamics of the business. They will be expected to be conversant in the culture and the conditions common to their industry. The will be expected to be able to collaborate with people from other specializations, to collaborate, and solve problems. Silos will break down, not because management sees the wisdom of breaking down the silos, but because the borders between various functions will dissolve, sharing the same language, the same technology, and the dynamic factors.
- Even health care, a field that every employment expert says will grow will not necessarily grow in the way we expect.
- If we don’t have all the resources we need, where else can we get them?
- As this new business model takes hold, National Electronic Health Records initiative includes incentive payments to hospitals and physicians who computerize medical records –and provides new opportunities for CPE units for training. These include (click) Hospitals, who receive up to $2M to install HIT systems, And Physicians offices who receive up to $70,000 to install HIT (click) Both of these employer types, along with Community Health Agencies and health Care providers require new types of skills to support specialized Health IT environments, as well as training for support staff in its use in records management (click) In addition, IT and software providers will be required to provide support including security, networking, and technical support. With many CPE units building IT programs as well as healthcare programs, certificates and programs in health informatics may be in even greater demand as doctors and hospitals begin to implement national electronic health records.
- Sometimes, important knowledge can be held captive in a sector silo. The ‘profession’ of informatics is largely unfamiliar here in the United States outside its native silo in healthcare. Still the basic skills are in demand in virtually even business and professional practice.
- While there is concern over getting people into “character animation,” data animation is key to extracting its meaning and value.
- Whether we talk about “teaching,” “learning,” or “doing” brain surgery, we all altering every dimension of the problem and its solution. That why when people talk about “flows” the talk in terms of “impact flows.”
- Analytics plays a crucial role in improving every process and procedure. Still we have come up with the management and practice procedures the permit the data to flow across the boundaries of multiple practices and policies in order to realize its potential value.
- For now, you may need to think about how to be a part of your student’s mobile existence. Mobile phones can be used to “record” field work; collect information for use in class, and so on. Why assume that the best place to communicate is in the classroom? Bring experiences from outside the classroom, inside to share, discuss. Develop teams that can use their mobile and computer infrastructure collaborate. So called, “thin clients” are becoming “application specific”, like a mobile app lets you “hear” a foreign language in your native tongue, or a phone camera that can identify the “artwork” you are looking at in a museum. If the learner is going to spend a substantial portion of his or her time interacting with a mobile environment, make it a part of the learning experience.
- Back in the 60s, where I come from, we used to say it was about ‘relevancy.’ Today, its all about how this will make a difference in my life. The fact is, things are changing so rapidly and so profoundly, that we don’t expect our instructor to “tell me what it means.” We expect them to help us figure out how to solve the problem. One key way to connect is to let your learner “take” your knowledge into his/her reality –whether it’s on the job, or in the neighborhood. You the technology to break out of the classroom.
- Perhaps the most important thing about ‘new media’ is how it is making “face-to-face” contact exciting and novel again. (embed Valencia Market and NYU videos).
- Now, think about your parent’s routines and your children’s routines. In a recent survey of Internet users, when given a choice of devices to use, boomers (45+) overwhelmingly chose PCs (51 over 21 percent) while Gen Y (18 – 24 years of age) chose mobile phones (47 over 38 percent).
- This is as true of businesses as it is of educational institutions. Organizations are inherently “conservative” and “risk averse.” Unlike the consumer who can decide for his- or herself, organizations contain the accumulated angst, fears, and self-interests of the people that animate them. The authority to “decide” on behalf of the organization is concentrated in a handful of individuals. What looks essential to the organization, looks risky to the individual and vice versa.
- Most of the innovations Deloitte looked at occurred in less time than it takes to complete high school, or college, or obtain an advanced degree. If the value of innovation is to be reaped only after a credential has been earned, then spending for an employee’s “additional degree” would be a poor investment. If, on the other hand, P&CE were perceived as producing value by engaging employees in knowledge flows they might otherwise not have access to, the benefit to the employer would be concurrent with the expense. This is simply a matter of program design.
- THIS IS TEMPORARY “END SLIDE” FOR “PROGRAM DIRECTORS’ SESSION”.