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RCA CERN Grand Challenge 10 dec 2018

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The Grand Challenge Project is currently underway as a collaboration between the RCA School of Design and CERN.

The Grand Challenge is a unique project that involves all 1st-year School of Design Students from the Fashion, Textiles, IDE, GID, Service Design, Product Design and Intelligent Mobility Programmes; about 380 students, the biggest students cohort ever involved in an RCA project.

Running for 8 weeks in partnership with scientists from CERN, the project is exploring four key themes (Health and Wellbeing, Digital Disruption, Energy, Infrastructure and the Environment; Social and Economic Disparity).

This is a talk being given at the start of the second week of the project to share some of the key insights from 2018 Future Agenda projects that will help to provoke debate and innovation across the four themes.

Published in: Design
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RCA CERN Grand Challenge 10 dec 2018

  1. 1. RCA / CERN Grand Challenge Some Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World 10 December 2018
  2. 2. OVERVIEW OF TALK • Future Agenda Overview Context • Future of Patient Data Health and Wellness • Future Value of Data • Future of Digital Identity Digital Disruption • Future of Energy Energy, Infrastructure and The Environment • Future of Work Social and Economic Disparity
  3. 3. FUTURE AGENDA OVERVIEW
  4. 4. Future Agenda Future Agenda is an open think tank and advisory firm that helps organisations to understand emerging opportunities, make more informed decisions and place better, bolder strategic growth bets. INSIGHT IMPACT Global Foresight Industry Insight Bespoke Research New Services New Products New Strategies Core Team Extended Team The Global Network
  5. 5. The World in 2020 and The World in 2025 In 2010 / 2015 we led unique multi-topic, collaborative global open foresight programmes looking at the key changes for the next decade across 25 topics. In 2015 we ran 120 workshops in 45 countries engaging with 5000 experts. www.futureagenda.org
  6. 6. Focused Open Foresight Projects We run focused global projects exploring specific topics in depth. Undertaken in collaboration with multiple leading organisations, these generate rich, informed perspectives of emerging trends and opportunities. Future of Cities (2015/16) https://www.futureofcities.city Future of Philanthropy (2016/17) https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org Future of Patient Data (2017/18) https://www.futureofpatientdata.org Future Value of Data (2018)
  7. 7. Collaborative Approach Multiple expert workshops around the world are hosted by different organisations. The insights from all the events are shared openly. A global report provides an informed view of pivotal future changes. Level of Privacy Regulation: DLA Piper https://www.dlapiperdataprotection.com Heavy Robust Moderate Limited Current Healthcare Expenditure as a %GDP (2015) COUNTRY TOTAL GOVT PRIVATE San Francisco 19 JAN 2018 C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities E Top 3 Emerging Issues London 14 DEC 2017 Oslo 30 OCT 2017 Dubai 27 SEPT 2017 C Data Gaps Infrastructure Digital Skills O Predictive Analysis Artificial Intelligence Genetic Profiling E Standardised Measures Mental Health Ulterior Motives Johannesburg 10 OCT 2017 Frankfurt 25 JAN 2018 Brussels 9 NOV 2017 Boston 17 JAN 2018 Toronto 16 JAN 2018 Future of Patient Data (2017/18) Locations and Key Insights Australia 9.4 6.5 2.9 Belgium 10.5 8.6 1.8 Canada 10.4 7.7 2.8 UK 9.9 7.9 1.9 Germany 11.2 9.4 1.7 India 3.9 1.0 2.9 Norway 10.0 8.5 1.5 Singapore 4.3 2.2 2.0 South Africa 8.0 4.4 3.6 UAE 3.5 2.5 1.0 USA 16.8 8.5 8.4 C Combining Data Sets Digital Skills Resistance from HCPs O Personal Data Sharing Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence E Inequality Privatization of Health Data Data Sovereignty Sydney 15 NOV 2017 C Linkability of Open Data Data Gaps Ulterior Motives O Genetic Profiling Predictive Analysis Data Marketplaces E New Models Informed Consent New Entrants C Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient Expanding Set of Data O Predictive Analysis Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Standardised Measures Inequality Global Data Sharing C Ulterior Motives Resistance from HCPs Trust O Artificial Intelligence New Business Models Mental Health E Data Sovereignty Patient Empowerment Data Marketplaces C Data Ownership Ulterior Motives Trust O Data Marketplaces Artificial Intelligence Personalisation E New Business Models Privatisation of Health Data Informed Consent C Expanding Data Set Combining Data Sets Regulation O Data Marketplaces Personalisation Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent Data Sovereignty Inequality C Integration of Data Data Quality Unstructured Data O Individualized Medicine Artificial Intelligence Data Marketplace E Privatisation of Health data New Business Models Value of Health Data C Getting Closer to the Patient Combining Data Sets Data Gaps O Genetic Profiling Artificial Intelligence Proxy Data E Inequality Standardised Measures Privatisation of Health data C Combining Data Sets Trust Linkability of Open Data O Embedded AI Getting Closer to the Patient Predictive Analysis E New Business Models Standardised Measures Inequality Singapore 13 NOV 2017 C Regulation Combining Data Sets Getting Closer to the Patient O Artificial Intelligence Individual Custodianship Personalisation E Data Sovereignty Standardised Measures Value of Health Data Mumbai 23 NOV 2017 C Data Quality Ulterior Motives Data Ownership O Data Marketplaces India Setting Standards Artificial Intelligence E Informed Consent New Models Inequality
  8. 8. Large Corporates Technology Firms NGOs Economists Government Academia / Research Start-Ups Influencers Immersive Workshops Our workshops bring together a mix of expertise with varied perspectives to help challenge and build a richer view. They are immersive, inclusive events that explore future shifts and detail impacts, risks and opportunities.
  9. 9. Bespoke Support We also provide bespoke research and advisory support for a wide range of leading organisations exploring emerging issues, identifying strategic options and defining future pathways.
  10. 10. HEALTH AND WELLBEING
  11. 11. Increasing Control The question of ownership of health data is in flux - especially on access vs. use. Patients may have increasing ‘control’ of their data, but whether they become ‘custodians’ depends on culture, regulation and need.
  12. 12. Personal Data Stores New platforms help patients and providers to manage and curate their data across multiple partners. Universally accepted credentials help to drive greater personalisation of health services.
  13. 13. The Initial Impact of AI There are great expectations around AI. Initial advances from machine learning and pattern recognition will be most significant in enabling more efficient diagnosis and better prediction.
  14. 14. AI and Unstructured Patient Data As deep, self and reinforced learning develop, the ability to deal with unstructured data delivers major improvements in diagnosis and treatment. AI agents learn by trial and error and AI is embedded into many decisions.
  15. 15. Access Inequality As advances roll out, there is growing concern for those being left behind. Some hope that, with more and better data, health inequality can be reduced. Others see a widening divide between those with access and those without.
  16. 16. FutureValueofDataAninitialperspective FUTURE VALUE OF DATA An initial perspectiveDIGITAL DISRUPTION
  17. 17. Personal Data The greatest focus for the debate so far has been on the individual. Analysts are busy calculating ARPU, profit per user and monetization options. There is most clarity on the dark web where relevant values are openly agreed.
  18. 18. Machine Data Most information will come from M2M and IoT data from up to 1 trillion sensors. Many firms are proposing competing approaches with different views for each sector - connected cars, smart cities and buildings - all with alternative values.
  19. 19. Data Imperialism and Sovereignty More governments push back against Big Tech to fight for control of data. Limiting the flow of data is seen as a way of protecting citizens and so global sharing is restricted to within 4 or 5 (potentially overlapping) systems.
  20. 20. TheFutureofDigitalIdentityAnInitialPerspective THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL IDENTITY An Initial Perspective DIGITAL DISRUPTION
  21. 21. Digital Identity Literacy A wholesale move toward Digital Identity will require it’s own programme of education to teach people how to maintain and keep safe their Digital ID.
  22. 22. Merging of Identity and ID As ID management and attribute systems collect more detailed digital user histories, our Identity and ID will merge, with unknowable consequences.
  23. 23. The Case for Digital Inclusion Digital ID systems will go some way towards addressing access and exclusion issues of the 1 billion+ people lacking legal identity documents.
  24. 24. Local Digital Citizenship Distrust of surveillance and distant institutions leads to hyper-local identity and authentication by the people we know and communities we live in.
  25. 25. ENERGY, INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
  26. 26. Falling Cost of Solar The consistent decline in the cost of solar PV modules over time follows a 20% reduction for every doubling of production. At 2c per kWh, solar takes off to become the world’s leading energy source within two decades.
  27. 27. Energy Storage Low cost, efficient storage, and particularly electricity storage, is the missing piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport sector.
  28. 28. Machine Learning Taking Control With the rise of AI and autonomous computing, machine learning is increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems – quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.
  29. 29. Energy Harvesting As improving energy efficiency becomes a central part of smart city strategies, multiple means of better harvesting energy come to the fore. More kinetic, passive solar, electro-magnetic and waste solutions emerge.
  30. 30. ofWorkInsightsandImplications THE FUTURE OF WORK Insights and Implications SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DISPARITY
  31. 31. Youth Unemployment In countries experiencing an ‘urban youth bulge’ rising unemployment for the young is a major challenge. In several developed countries, many graduates already need to wait a decade before finding meaningful work.
  32. 32. Working Longer For many, retirement at age 65 is economically infeasible. Few workers can fund a 30-year retirement with a 40-year career. Neither can societies. More countries are joining Australia in contemplating a pension age of 70.
  33. 33. Reinventing Roles Will the shifts ahead drive mass unemployment or can the evolutions that replaced blacksmiths with car mechanics be repeated? Technology will have a fundamental impact on roles that are currently part of our social fabric.
  34. 34. Smaller ‘Big’ Companies The employment pool expands with ‘on and off-balance sheet talent’. In 2008 the world’s ten most valuable companies employed 3.5 million. Today, the top ten companies are worth twice as much, but only have 50% of the employees.
  35. 35. Future of the Company The whole notion of an organisation has to change: Many activities are increasingly being outsourced while HR is more about talent attraction. The future of the company is as much in flux as the future of work itself.
  36. 36. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda

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