Future-oriented Studies and Foresight Methods
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introduction to the essence of foresight studies
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Future-oriented Studies and Foresight Methods
- 1. Future-oriented Studies Derry Pantjadarma Sesi Diskusi Direktorat Sistem Riset dan Pengembangan Direktorat Jenderal Penguatan Riset dan Pengembangan Kementerian Riset Teknologi dan Pendidikan Tinggi Puspiptek, 4 Mei 2017
- 2. Struktur • Esensi • Tinjauan umum • Ilustrasi Pelaksanaan • Catatan Penutup • Referensi
- 4. Shared Objectives and Visions • Jumlah pelaku • Keinginan • Jangka waktu Bertambah • Ketidakpastian • Kompleksitas • Kesulitan Meningkat • Metoda tepat • Kredibilitas • Buy-in Terwujud
- 5. Tipologi masa depan Impian Ramalan Saat ini Waktu Perencanaan
- 6. APEC Centre for Technology Foresight, 2003 6 Foresight of the Future futures (multiple) Now Select the Future Now Decision Now Milestones, measures Target Selecting Milestones Targeting
- 7. Maree Conway, Centre for Australian Foresight, 2013
- 8. Biro Perencanaan BPPT di Foren 120804 8 Harvard & McKinsey ‘Numbers Planning’ Systems thinking emerges in WW2 Shell starts thinking about year 2000 Japan begins Delphi surveys Futures Group at Stanford Oil price shock increases use of scenarios National technology Foresight begins Big expansion of national f/s in advanced economies Less advanced economies begin f/s International and regional f/s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s THE GROWTH OF FORESIGHT
- 9. Foresight • Systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities “ anticipating, recommending and transforming” technological, economic, environmental, political, social, ethical futures. ( Rafael POPPER, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, December 2011 )
- 10. Foresight and UK Grand Challenges • Foresight is a way to bring together multi-disciplinary analysis of challenges, and multi-stakeholder approaches to responses. • In the UK it is embedded into the policy mix, but is only part of the STI (and other) policy formation process – varying across challenges and over time. • Problems for democracy and technocracy in complex societies: short-term (and ideological) decision making, communication across boundaries. • These are Grand Challenges FOR Foresight Ian Miles, Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearcSeptember 2012
- 11. Foresight and UK Grand Challenges • Foresight is a way to bring together multi-disciplinary analysis of challenges, and multi-stakeholder approaches to responses. • In the UK it is embedded into the policy mix, but is only part of the STI (and other) policy formation process – varying across challenges and over time. • Problems for democracy and technocracy in complex societies: short-term (and ideological) decision making, communication across boundaries. • These are Grand Challenges FOR Foresight Ian Miles, Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearcSeptember 2012 Innovation Policy
- 12. Biro Perencanaan BPPT di Foren 120804 12 Future-oriented Technology Analysis studies • Technology FORECASTING – ..probabilistic predictions of future technology developments • Technology ASSESSMENT – …anticipating future societal impacts of known new technologies • Technology FORESIGHT – ..identifying present science& technology priorities in the light of hypotheticl projections of future economic and societal developments
- 13. Biro Perencanaan BPPT di Foren 120804 13 Technology Foresight • Upaya sistematik untuk melihat masa depan ilmu, teknologi, sosial dan ekonomi beserta interaksinya dengan tujuan mengidentifikasi area riset strategis dan teknologi generik yang muncul berpotensi untuk memberi manfaat ekonomi dan sosial maksimal bagi masyarakat ( Ben Martin) • Proses untuk mengantisipasi dan mengelola perubahan (‘change’)
- 14. 14 Pemilihan ‘TF-tool’ Delphi Scenario Roadmapping Time horizon in years 3-10 5-50 3-5 Type of future likely uncertain preferred People >100 30 10-20 Expert Expert+ stakeholder Expert +planners Logistics complex Fairly simple simple Key challenge Topic preparation Stakeholder engagement Expert engagement Facilitated No Yes probably
- 15. Metoda Foresight
- 19. Roadmapping Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Konnola, JRC-IPTS, May 2011
- 20. 20 What is Roadmap ? "A 'roadmap' is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field." "Roadmaps allow our industry leaders to communicate convincingly with those in government and business regarding their support of our goals." Robert Galvin, ex-CEO of Motorola, 1998
- 21. Scenario Writing
- 23. 23 Yang tercatat pernah dilakukan....... • Biro Perencanaan BPPT – -Trial of Delphi ( 1996-1998)-unfinished – Scenario writing exercise (1997)-ITDP – Kajian Technology foresigth and Scan ( 2003) • DRN-KRT – Preparatory interviews + scenario writing > 11 PUNAS Ristek • Indonesia Masa Depan 2010 ( 1999) – Scenario writing > 4 skenario • PERISKOP – Scenario writing on Genetic Enginering • UNIDO-Deplu – Textile industry (2003) • Pappiptek LIPI – Kajian Technology Foresight (2009) – Excercise dengan expert Global Futures Institute ( 2013) • PKT BPPT – Kajian Teknologi Foresight ( 2008-2009)
- 25. Pengalaman berharga Visi 30-35 tahun lalu • PAU Mikroelektronika tahun 1980an antisipasi perkembangan ICT >> failed – Impor perangkat elektronika smartphone dan komputer tinggi • Satelit Komunikasi PALAPA tahun 1970an • Investasi BTS di pelosok Indonesia tahun 1980an
- 26. Contoh Visi Indonesia Sumpah Pemuda UUD 45 GBHN PAU BPIS 1928-1945 Pendidikan di Luar Negeri 1960 an 1970-1990 an 17 tahun 30 tahun
- 28. Biro Perencanaan BPPT di Foren 120804 28 In the future… • Demographic bonus • More mouth to feed…. • More people to seek education and employment.. • Depleted conventional natural resources.. • Rice intensification will be limited..land shortage… • Globalization prevails…free movement of goods, people, money…..but perhaps more restrictive knowledge flow ( this provide advantages in highly competitive world)
- 29. Biro Perencanaan BPPT di Foren 120804 29 Challenges • Imbalanced/asymmetric development across the archipelago • Equal opportunity for quality skills upgrading through schooling system • Wide gap rich and poor • Poor governance • Limited STI capacity and capability • High concentration of technology capability in Java, specifically to some large cities/region • High level of formal unemployment • Stagnant industrial development • Noise political dynamics
- 30. 30 Catatan Penutup Faktor kunci dalam prakarsa Foresight • Kontekstual ( > metoda dan sumberdaya ) • Komitmen jangka panjang pimpinan • Kualitas nara sumber ( visionary, credible, open- minded ) • Kualitas pelaksana ( analytical, system thinking ) • Masuk ke dalam agenda penyusunan kebijakan • Selaras dengan kebijakan yang ada • Bebas dari pengaruh yang tidak relevan
- 31. Referensi • Maree Conway:” An Overview of Foresight Methods”, Thinking Futures, Centre for Australian Foresight, 2013 • Ian Miles :” Grand Challenges and UK Foresight”, University of Manchester Institute of Research Innovation, 2012 • Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Konnola, “Challenges of Global Foresight : Lessons from IMS Scenario and Roadmapping Process “, JRC-IPTS, 12- 13 May 2011 • APEC Centre for Technology Foresight Workshop, Bangkok, 2003 • Karl Popper :” Iknow Final Report “, Manchester Institute of Research Innovation, 2011 • Biro Perencanaan BPPT, Diskusi di Forum Perencanaan, 12 Agustus 2004 • OECD Report :“The Bioeconomy to 2030, Designing a Policy Agenda”, 2009 • James Canton:”The Extreme Future”, Institute of Global Futures, 2006. • www.iknowfutures.eu