Presentation given to Washington State House Transportation Committee on January 31, 2016

1. 1

2. 2
Representing
31,000+ frustrated
constituents
(adding 100’s per day)

3. Hello, my name is…
• PMI certified PMP
• Worked projects >100,000 employees
• Risk management, incremental steps, diverse stakeholders3
• Degree in Computer Science
• 30 yr - Systems Analysis and Process Improvement
• Principal – Divergent Solutions

4. Work related to 405ETL
Collaborated with:
• Professional transportation engineers:
• Puget Sound
• Florida
• Texas A&M University Civil Engineering Dept
• Stakeholders
• Washington Trucking Associations
• Motorcycle advocacy groups
• Bus drivers
Extensive independent research
Personally driven it for 16 years
Drive from Bothell to Issaquah and back 2x/day
4

5. Key Points
1. Congestion
2. Safety
3. Trip Reduction
4. Cost
5. Broken
6. Project Management
7. Perception is Reality
5

6. • Reduction: To reduce the overall congestion
• Management: Displaces the congestion from
one lane into another lane, other roads or
other times.
HOT Lane: Sell Surplus Capacity of HOV Lane
6
Congestion
Congestion Mgmt vs Congestion Reduction

7. • MGMT = Needs of the FEW outweigh
Needs of the MANY
• Overall net loss in productivity
• Increased pollution, road rage, time lost
• Very expensive for trucking >$100/hr
7
Congestion
Congestion Mgmt vs Congestion Reduction

8. Truths of HOT Lanes
Function: Sell Surplus Capacity of HOV Lane ONLY
Problems:
1. No Surplus Capacity (esp. N of NE 160th St)
2. Treating 3 lanes same as 5 lanes
3. Deters Carpooling
4. Taxpayers already paid for these lanes
5. Expensive to operate
6. Unpopular
8

9. Truths of Value Pricing
$ Make it too expensive for most people so
remaining cars go faster
$ Creates Price uncertainty
$ Class separation wealthy vs poor
$ Doesn’t reduce congestion
• No Increase Capacity
• No Decrease Demand
9

10. Truths of Value Pricing
600,000 users ≠ they agree with tolls
Paying the toll is like paying your heating bill: Pay till it
hurts too much.
Hourly workers are more likely to have urgency to get to
work on time, but least able to afford HOT lanes.
Poor are more likely to live where housing is cheaper
but have longer commutes.
10
Social inequity

11. NB 405 / 520 merge
11
2:30 PM
Th 12/17/15
3:40 PM
Th 1/21/16
Stopped

12. Unauthorized Removal of 1 GPL
“▪ Northbound, North of SR 520 Interchange to
NE 70th Street: No changes are proposed for this
section of freeway. This roadway will continue to
have four general-purpose lanes and one HOV
lane.”
-Kirkland Nickel Project Environmental
Assessment February 2005, Ch 4 p3
http://wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/9073AD38-8183-4EAB-8480-
2B63529BDF82/0/Chapter4.pdf
12

13. WSDOT Data vs. Direct Measurement
• WSDOT data measure instantaneous speeds and
average them.
• These do not represent an actual sample of the true
driver experience.
• The next slide is a GPS recording of an actual, typical
commute. Note the stop and go effect making WSDOT
sampling methods unreliable.
This commute took 51 minutes from NE 8th St to I-5 at
5PM.
13

14. 14
Commute NE 6th St to I-5
Th Jan 21 at 4:56 PM

15. Safety
• Many more Accidents
• 2,416 Citations in 90 days
• Dangerous for Motorcycles
• When there is an accident,
it has a bigger impact
15

16. Trip Reduction
2+ 16

17. “The main goal of HOV lanes was (and still is) to maximize the
movement of PEOPLE rather than vehicles” -- WSDOT blog
http://wsdotblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/i-405-express-toll-lanes-part-1-what-is.html
Yet the HOT lanes are 85% SOVs during rush hour
17

18. 45mph Myth: FHWA Guide on HOV Lanes
“The purpose of this document is to provide
information useful to States as they plan, design,
operate, and manage HOV and HOT facilities. It is
intended to be non-binding and should not be
construed as a rule of general applicability. This
document provides examples for States to follow in
evaluating proposed significant changes to the
operation of an HOV lane, to include conversion of
an HOV lane to a High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane.”
--Federal-Aid Highway Program Guidance on High
Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Lanes
18
http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freewaymgmt/hovguidance/chapter1.htm

19. New Barriers to Carpooling
19

20. New Barriers to Carpooling
• FlexPass Required
• 3+ Required
• Option to pay and be SOV
• Limited entry/exit points
20
Result: 85% of vehicles in HOT lanes are SOVs

21. 2 person carpools = 80% of carpools
21U.S. Census

22. 22
$8M 0.5%
405ETL $0.75 toll WA Gas Tax
Cost
$0.21 28.0%
$0.54 72.0%
$1,013M 98.4%
$10,6B 0.3%
$3.13T 99.7%
IRS
$0.54 1.1%
$49.46 98.9%
405ETL $50.00 toll

23. $0.15 – Roadway Toll Operations and Maintenance
$0.20 – Customer Service Center
$0.19 – WSDOT overhead and Credit Card Processing
$0.21 – Available for Highway Maintenance & Improvements
Drivers pay 75 cents to 21 cents of road maintenance – 28%
This doesn’t include the $2 pay-by-mail or
the $25 service charge rental car companies charge. 23
Cost

24. 2nd Quarter FY2016 Financial Report for I-405 Express Toll Lanes
Comparison of revenue from $5,220,559 collected via Tolls vs Gas Tax
24
Cost
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Tolling/405/library.htm
Expenses do not include paying for building the ETL

25. 10 years of toll profits lost
Cost to build toll system: $111,000,000
Annual Revenue: $20,000,000
Annual operating cost: $10,000,000
Annual Profit: $10,000,000
It will take 10 years to earn back the money we
spent building the toll system.
That money could have been spent on Real
Improvements.
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20160211/BLOG17/160219937
25

26. 26
Cost
WSDOT wants to keep trying this experiment for 2 years. Sadly,
they will then claim success because there are no stipulations
about customer satisfaction in the measurement criteria. It just
has to be profitable. And they will likely claim it has reduced
congestion. They have NO incentive to increase capacity as that
would reduce the profit.
The reality is a Texas A&M University study found that the local
economy and the price of gas have a greater impact than tolling
on Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and use of alternatives like buses
and carpooling.
With gas prices currently at record lows and the economy is doing
great in our region, we have more drivers on the road than ever. So
when either of these variables change and fewer people use the
roads, WSDOT will claim the improvements are a result of tolling.

27. The toll on Tolling
“Few revenue collection systems can match the
efficiency of fuel taxes, which are collected at
less than 1 percent of gross revenues.”
-- WSTC report Washington State Road Usage
Charge Assessment – Phase 4; Jan 5,2016; p.18
27
http://www.wstc.wa.gov/StudiesSurveys/RoadUsage/RUC2013/documents/2016_011
2_RUCReport.pdf
Cost

28. Chronic problems with tolling
• Motorcycle stickers often don’t work
• Passes don’t work on 100’s of models of cars
• Repeated incorrect billing problems
• One case where 226,000 tolls were wrong
• Tolling company has yet to provide proof of
PCI compliance
• $64,000 Credit card theft of GtG customers
28
Broken
http://www.kiro7.com/news/good-to-go-customers-credit-cards-stolen-in-64000-
scam/92835044

29. Double-white lines prevent use
29
- By the time drivers see this sign, they are already past the entry point to the ETL.
- Double-white lines also prevent use by short commuter trips.

30. Variable Pricing = Unpredictable
Petition Comments:
I used the new rate tool just as I was leaving work last night in Bellevue. I access I-405
at the NE 6th Street on-ramp. The tool said the rate was $2.00 from Bellevue to Hwy
522. When I reached the on-ramp 10 minutes later, it was $4.00. My desire is to go to
I-5, but that was $5.25, so I get off at early and take back-roads home. Note: I have 3
carpooler’s at times, but schedules are not consistent, so many times instead of 4 of
us, there are two, which still means we need to pay to use the HOV lane. The obvious
alternative is to slog through traffic adding an extra hour or more to the commute
each way, every day. --Dale
30

31. #FAIL: FlexPass doesn’t work for 100’s of vehicles
due to metalic windshield
http://www.king5.com/story/traffic/news/2015/09/15/405carpoolerstolls/72345394/ 31

32. Infrastructure changes resulting in
traffic improvements
• 5 contiguous lanes
• Moving buses to shoulder lane
• SR522 weave (still has issues!)
32
Working

33. Tolling changes resulting in traffic
improvements
33
Broken
(none)

34. N of NE 160th St:
Change: Added tolling only
Result: GPL traffic slower
S of NE 160th St:
Change: Added a lane (and tolling)
Result: GPL faster in places
34
Tolling does not reduce congestion

35. The WSDOT Promise
• Didn’t widen the road for 10mi of 17mi
• WSP reports accidents way up
• WSDOT admits slower on weekends
• True cost over $450,000,000 35

36. Project Management
36

37. Stakeholder Input and Buy-in that should
have been consulted
• Truckers
• Elderly
• Businesses
• Tourists
• Commuters
• Transit
• Legislators
• WSDOT
• FHWA
37
Project Management

38. Risk Management: Example of Incremental Steps
1. Add a lane
2. Add Hard Shoulder driving during peak
3. Add the double-white lines
4. Add tolling
5. Require a FlexPass
6. Increase HOV from 2+ to 3+
38
Project Management

39. Points of failure
1. No phased approach
2. Additional lane is not carrying more capacity
3. Grossly underestimated demand
4. Required transponders from day one
5. Excessive revenue due to excessive congestion
6. GPL are actually slower
39
Project Management

40. Even a solution that works is a failure
if it isn’t what they want.
40
Project Management

41. Perception is reality
41
• Public frustration is exacerbated by seeing
others benefit from their pain.
• When solo drivers can buy their way into the
HOT lane, we are not in this together.
• For the HOT lane system to work,
the majority must lose.
With ETL, the needs of the few
outweigh the needs of the many

42. Listen to the public outcry
Stakeholder acceptance is a
primary measure of success 42

43. Toll booth near Costco in Woodinville expresses public opinion well
43
Not a partisan issue

44. Bibliography
12: http://wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/9073AD38-8183-4EAB-8480-2B63529BDF82/0/Chapter4.pdf
17: http://wsdotblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/i-405-express-toll-lanes-part-1-what-is.html
18: http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freewaymgmt/hovguidance/chapter1.htm
24: http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Tolling/405/library.htm
25: http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20160211/BLOG17/160219937
27:
http://www.wstc.wa.gov/StudiesSurveys/RoadUsage/RUC2013/documents/2016_0112_RUCReport.pdf
28: http://www.kiro7.com/news/good-to-go-customers-credit-cards-stolen-in-64000-scam/92835044
31: http://www.king5.com/story/traffic/news/2015/09/15/405carpoolerstolls/72345394
44