Climate The third component of human carrying capacity29 Janu.docx

Climate: The third component of human carrying capacity
29 January 2018
ECS 111
Dr. Olson
Pre-Springtime in Paris
The warmest year (again)
Here we are in 2017
2017 Temperatures
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-
maps/201713#global-maps-select
2017 Precipitation

In Denial or Lack of Political Will?
What is the danger?
A brief history of our atmosphere
Earth formed about 4.5 billion years ago.
4 billion yrs ago, atmosphere likely N2, H2O, CO2, CH4
~ 3.5 billion yrs ago: first life appears in the ocean
Subsequent photosynthesis produces O2
Early O2 used to oxidize rock & react with volcanic gases
By 1 billion years ago, O2 accumulating in atmosphere
Garrison (2002)

The simple model does well, but things aren’t quite that simple.
The albedo varies from near 0.05 (oceans) to near 1 (fresh
snow). The real picture is quite complicated (especially by
clouds).
Greenhouse Effect
With no atmosphere Earth’s surface temperature = -18°C
= σTe4
Ts = Te = 255 K (-18°C)
Ts = 288 K (15°C, 59° F)
= σTa4 = σTe4
atmosphere Ta =Te
σTS4
σTa4
With atmosphere (GHGs), Earth’s temperature = 15° C
terrestrial
solar
240 W/m2
14

Not all areas of a sphere receive the same energy / unit area
15
Distribution of global heating and cooling. Incoming solar
radiation versus infrared (heat) outgoing radiation. Both the
atmosphere and ocean serve to redistribute heat around the
planet.
16
Global wind systems: Again.
Garrison (2002)
Source: http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/slides/
climate/analema.gif
Not all the earth receives the same amount of solar radiation.
The most is received at the equator; the least at the poles.
This unequal distribution of energy drives the climate.

Both the atmosphere and ocean serve to redistribute heat around
the planet.
Weather averaged over months, seasons or longer is climate.
Given the large seasonal and spatial fluctuations, it is easier to
compare different years by looking at anomalies, that is
differences compared to average temperatures for some long
period, say 1971-2000.
ITCZ
Global Ocean Temperatures
Temperate westerlies
Trade wind systems
Monsoons
Low pressure,
ascending air
High pressure,

descending air
High pressure,
descending air
The ITCZ is a dynamic feature that moves annually with the
changing seasons.
Nat. Geographic
Can the Green Revolution hold?
Economist 1 August 2015
Peter Webster’s Monsoons
How Does Climate Set Life’s Patterns
Where are the major biomes that are found currently on Earth?
How do the ecosystems in these biomes function?
What are the typical fauna (animals) and flora (plants) that
define these biomes.
All the Earth’s Terrestrial Biomes
How are these biomes defined?

Endemic species (organisms that live there).
Physical attributes of the environment: climate, nutrient fluxes,
soils….
30
How to define a biome?
Making a species list. (Biotic)
Putting in a climate category. (Abiotic)
Can we define unique attributes in terms of:
How are biomes limited:
- Nutrient poor systems
- Marginal systems with soil or water issues.
OK, but how does this define a biome?
Making a species list.
Putting in a climate category.
Can we define unique attributes in terms of:
- Systems with high biomass but few species (Polar
seas)
- Diverse systems with many species: High
biomass (rain forests coral reefs) Low biomass (Deserts and
Subtropical gyres.
Brown’s Major Controls on Human Carrying Capacity
Water
Soils
Climate

33
GISP-2 Ice Core (Greenland)
Age (kyrs ago)

-44
-42
-40
-38
-36
-34
-32
0
10

20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Younger Dryas
6
7
10
16
1
2
3
5
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
17
18
19
20
21
Dansgaard-Oeschger Events
4
(Grootes et al., 1993)
Holocene: Rise of Human Agriculture

Industrial Revolution
Glacial
The Anthropocene
390 ppm
Arrhenius 1896
The Warming Hiatis ?
Confusing findings:
Rising Seas
Sea Level:
Sea level increases: 1) Sea water expands with warming
temperatures; 2) Warming leads to the melting or floating of
land ice sheets.

Sea Level increases impacts: 1) Initial increase in storm damage
from both tropical and temperate storm systems; 2) Sea level
effects a large population sector that lives in coastal cities; 3)
Many agricultural areas are coastal.
Adapting for Antarctica
Sea Level Today
Figure 5.13
IPCC AR4 Fig. 5.13: Annual averages of the global mean sea
level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields
since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue
curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from
Holgate and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based on
satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue
curves are deviations from their averages for 1961 to 1990, and
the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red
curve for the period 1993 to 2001. Error bars show 90%
confidence intervals.
Global mean sea level rising (non-uniform)
1961-2003:1.8±0.5mm/yr =>
Worldwide increase in occurrence
of extreme high water
iii. Sea level rise

42
Figure 5.13. Annual averages of the global mean sea level
(mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since
1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve
shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from
43
Figure 5.13. Annual averages of the global mean sea level
(mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since
1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve
shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from
Global sea level rise (based on tide gauge and satellite data) has
been following the highest end of the 2001 IPCC sea level
projection.
LOW

HIGH
MEDIUM
44
Arguments about ice:
The Big Thaw?
Adapting to Climate Change
Climate and Society
Climate and Crops

Can Nature Adapt?
2
/
240
m
W
Yang Dun
Ecs111
Ecology refers to the study of ecosystems in which a group of
organisms live together. Ecosystem does not refer to organisms
only, rather it refers to the environment as well in which these
organisms are living (Costanza et. all, 1997). The knowledge of
such systems is essential in order to know about its strength as
well as stability. This knowledge is immensely important since
it depicts the limits in which such an environment could
survive. This essay is focused towards different aspects of this
system which allows us to understand the basic concepts of
earth as ecosystem.
Carrying capacity is an interesting concept which refers to
the maximum living capacity which a country could offer at a
time. If the individuals living in this area become greater than
this limit, it is not only harmful for them but it also depicts that

its environment would be destroyed completely. This capacity is
determined in a different manner by various researchers. As
described by Lester Brown, there are three limits which define
the carrying capacity of any area. First of all, the yield of ocean
fisheries needs to be stable completely in order to ensure that
food production is enhanced. This is one of the major
constraints faced in this regard. Second is the level of fresh
water available and third limit is described as the amount of
fertilizers which could be used for food production. As far as
Australia is concerned, the total carrying capacity is about
40,450,154 individuals while the current population is
22,326,388. Only a small share of food produced in this country
is used by local population. About 48.6% of food produced is
extra in capacity which shows that the carrying capacity of
Australia is more than the current population owing to excess of
resources.
Ecosystem services refers to the facilities given by an
ecosystem to its inhabitants. These facilities ensure that a
quality life is given to the dwellers of an area or a country.
Water is one such facility which improves the quality of an
ecosystem. With the help of fresh water, various domestic
functions could be performed which includes cooking, cleaning
and washing clothes. This fresh water is also essential for
consumption. In case of rural areas, the availability of fresh
water is essential for irrigating the crops and other plants. Fresh
water ensures that the crops could be harvested on time and that
food production remains efficient for both rural and urban fresh
water reserves. Other than this, power is also generated with the
help of water reserves. Therefore, ecosystem could not survive
without water at all.
Soil loss, commonly known as soil erosion, is a great loss
to any ecosystem which could disturb its natural balance
completely. There are numerous causes for this ongoing
process, however, the most common are related to immense
expansion of cities and their population. As a result of
population increase, the practice of cutting trees has increased

thereby destroying forest areas completely. As a result of this,
the fertile soil is swept away along with water (Odum, 1996).
Other than this, another major factor is overuse of fertilizers
and pesticides in agricultural fields. Due to this, the quality of
upper soil is damaged completely, thereby causing the land to
become barren. It is not harmful to use pesticides or other such
chemical in limited amount, however, their overuse is causing
soil degradation.
Population transition refers to the changes in population
characteristics such as birth rate and death rate over a fixed
time period. Recently the birth rate has declined owing to
increase in awareness related to overpopulation. Everyone is
aware of limited resource available in ecosystem due to which
birth rate is being strictly controlled. Other than that, death rate
has also decreased due to advancement in medical sciences
(Assessment, 2003). This has improved the quality of life being
led by individuals. There were basically 4 stages of population
transition observed till yet. In first stage, the birth rate was
extremely high while death rate kept fluctuating. The second
stage comprised of lowering death rates. However, birth rates
were still high. The third stage consisted of lowering birth rates
as well while the current fourth stage has both low birth and
death rates.
In the given equation, dN/dt is the rate at which population
is increasing. Keeping this in mind, r is the growth observed for
a time period. K is a term which refers to the total capacity of
an eco-system to keep organisms. This capacity is termed as
carrying capacity and is an essential terminology of ecology.
In Middle East, there are a number of issues due to the
current political and social transitions. ISIS has fallen, causing
Assad to win over completely. The president of Lebanon has
resigned which gave courage to Kurds residing in Baghdad to
fight for supremacy in Iran (Grime, 2006). As a result of these
issues, the social and economic situation of entire region is
weak. Some of the problems include unemployment, weak
economy, high growth rate of local population, inefficient

trading system and weak education system.
As a result of drought, the food situation in western United
States is worsening day by day. The absence of livestock in this
weather is imminent, thereby causing the local population to
suffer from malnutrition. This is not only damaging physical
health, it also has a huge impact on emotional well-being.
All in all, it can be seen that ecosystem and ecology is an
important subject which enhances the understanding of many
aspects of life.
References
Costanza, R., d'Arge, R., De Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M.,
Hannon, B., ... & Raskin, R. G. (1997).
The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural
capital. nature, 387(6630), 253.
Assessment, M. E. (2003). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
(MA): Strengthening Capacity to Manage
Ecosystems Sustainably for Human Well-Being. World
Resources Institute.
Grime, J. P. (2006). Plant strategies, vegetation processes, and
ecosystem properties. John Wiley &
Sons.
Odum, E. P. (1966). The strategy of ecosystem
development. Science, 164(262.270).
ECS 111 Spring 2018
Dr. Olson
Writing Tips for Homework:
Homework and rewrites of test questions will be graded
primarily based on the scientific and analytical content of the
work. This includes an adequate use of citations to appropriate
literature, use of appropriate analytical tools including proper
introduction and explanation of equations and calculations used
to consider the problems, a concise discussion of the
conclusions of the work. Homework assignments are considered

part of your own work and therefore should not include material
copied from other sources. To do so is plagiarism and will be
grounds for disciplinary action. Below the basic formats
expected and some guidelines for layout of assignments are
outlined.
References: Appropriate references are typically considered to
stem from juried (reviewed) literature. This means that the work
should have been reviewed and published in scientific or
engineering journals. Citing textbooks is allowed when
documenting well known techniques and or solutions to specific
mathematical problems. In general, it is not appropriate to quote
a text book when the object is to refer to a specific piece of
work in the juried literature. Instead it the original work should
be cited. A text may be cited when it provides an overview of
an entire field. The discussion should still quote the individual
works that are pertinent to the discussion in the homework. A
final note on textbooks is that they are usually out of date,
therefore the newest juried literature is the place to start on
homework.
When providing a reader with a reference list a good “rule of
thumb” is to quote the most up to date references on the topic, a
few of the major contributions on the issues, and the original
work on the problem. Be explicit in discussing the role of each
of the works cited in framing the conclusions in your paper.
This is very important in documenting what you have added to
our understanding of the problem with your own analysis. In
other words carefully documenting what you have added.
Citations should appear in the text. While modern word
processing has made it easy to use footnotes, you should use the
authors’ names and the date for their work in the text. Single
authors should appear as Smith (2001) if you are discussing the
work outright in the sentence. If the citation is just to provide a
source for further research by the reader, the citation usually
appears at the end of the discussion as (Smith, 2001). In
general, in scientific papers page numbers are not given in the
text. For two authors, both are provided, i.e. Smith and Jones

(2008). For three or more authors make use of the Latin et al.,
i.e. Jones et al. (2010). Again these should be worked into the
narrative when you are actually discussing a work or placed in
parenthesis if you are just supplying references for the reader to
go to for further information.
The reference section of your work should provide the reader all
the information needed to find the work. In science the common
widely used style is that of the American Chemical Society.
There are a number of other formats also. Typically one must
conform to a specific style of reference to comply with specific
journals for publication. The important issue is to be consistent
with a specific style. In the literature there are various
templates for references. Any will be accepted for homework as
long as they are consistently followed. Here are a set of
examples:
Haywood, A.M., P. J. Valdes, and B. W. Sellwood. 2000.
Global scale paleoclimate reconstruction of the middle Pliocene
climate using the UKMO GCM: Initial results. Global and
Planet. Change, 25, 239-256.
Fiedler, P. C. and L. P. Talley 2006. Hydrography of the eastern
tropical Pacific: A review. Prog. Oceanogr., 69, 143-180.
Mullen KM, Peters EC, Harvell CD 2004. Coral resistance to
disease. In: Rosenberg E, Loya Y (eds) Coral Health and
Disease. Springer, New York, pp 377-399
Greenspan, H. P. 1969. The Theory of Rotating Fluids.
Cambridge Uni. Press., London, 328 pp.
Darwin, C. 1890. Coral Reefs, Volcanic Islands, South
American Geology. Bettany ed., Ward, Lock and Co. G. T.
London, pgs 312-318.
Note here the first two are juried articles. The journal titles area
abbreviated and the citations includes the volume number and
page numbers for the articles. Author lists include all of the
authors and their initials. The Mullen article is in a book and
therefore includes the editors in the citations (eds). The last two
are also books, but involve single authors who are responsible
for the publication and therefore there is not mention of an

editor. The Greenspan book just lists the total number of pages.
The Darwin citation involves a long book without an index.
Therefore the page numbers for the specific quotation are given.
The books also list the publisher and the city where they were
published. This is particularly important for the Darwin quote
since his writings are voluminous and this is not an easy book
to find.
Using the Internet and the Library: The Internet is a very
powerful tool, that along with word processing, makes it far
easier to complete academic work than in the past. That said, it
is very easy to be lead astray by bogus information found on it.
The ephemeral nature of material on line and the tendency for
old information to hang on for years, make the Internet a
problematic in terms of proper referencing. This is an issue that
has seen considerable debate within the scientific publishing
community. In general, sources from the juried literature should
be used as much as possible. There are some data sets, however,
that can only be accessed through the Internet. These should be
fully documented including the agency source and the date of
the product, plus the date when it was retrieved. This should
allow a reader sometime in the future to find the data. The two
important dates also allow checks on data recalls and
modifications over time to data bases.
In terms of other uses of the Internet, a good way to start on a
project is to “surf the web.” While this may not provide the
reference material that is required in the final product, it does
do a good job of opening up information on problems. Sources
such as Wickipedia are fine for getting basic definitions. Most
of their offerings also contain useful references to get start with
the literature. Google and other search engines are also useful.
In general it is better to use Google Scholar. Services such as
the Web of Science and Web of Knowledge are also good places
to start. Most University libraries are equipped to facilitate the
development of references for a project. In particular, there is
access to most of the juried literature through E-Journals. The
library also has excellent citation services and topic search

capabilities. The citation indices are particularly useful in
chasing down references on a topic by just checking on authors
that have cited a work you have already found.
Writing Essays and Homework problems: In general in
scientific writing it is typical to use third person as
demonstrated in this manual. The present tense should also be
used for everything that exists in the present. These include data
sets, manuscripts themselves, and the work of authors even if
they are deceased. Actions or events that are clearly in the past
should be described using past tense. This being said, some
authors are more comfortable using personal tenses with “I
have…” or “We.” If the student insists on using first person,
the usage should be consistent, i.e. do not switch back and forth
between tenses.
All work should be carefully organized with clear introductions
stating the purpose of the essay or focus of the problem.
Paragraphs should be laid out in a logical order. Typically in
scientific and engineering papers this will involve an
introduction, a methods section, a results section and a
discussion and/or conclusion. For mathematics incorporated into
papers see the following sections. There is also a discussion on
the use of graphs and charts below.
Writing Mathematics: Many of the problems for homework in
the class involve mathematical calculations or can be done far
more easily using some mathematics. There are two reasons to
include math in a text; the fist is to streamline the discussion in
a concise manner, the second is to explicitly demonstrate a
calculation or provide a derivation or proof. To demonstrate the
use of math to shorten and concisely define concepts consider
the following discussion of what is known as a structured
population problem.
Consider the population of some entity, ,T, G), where the
variables that define are the position in space, and time (t),
and a set of three functions involving the other populations that
the ith population interacts with, , environmental variables, T,
and a state variable containing information, G. Note that

typically these latter variables are also functions of space and
time. These for example could be the temperature field, while
G might denote population genotypes for organisms or design
templates for built structures such as bridges. This use of an
equation with the symbol, , designate that is a function of a set
of state variables that can be used to define it in the
independent variables of space and time and the interacting
variables representing its properties and that of its
surroundings. Note that writing out this relation takes far less
space than trying to express the relationships in words. While it
is important to define the variables involved when the equation
is introduced, it is not necessary to reintroduce the definitions
as the problem is discussed further in a text or homework.
This definition of a function and it’s variables also allows direct
access to calculus to derive an equation for . This is
accomplished by expanding the total derivative of
+ .
This is an example of expanding the total derivative in terms of
all of the partial differentials that provide responses between
state variables. This is one of the fundamental concepts in
multi-variable calculus.
The second use for math is to carry out computations. There
will be many homework problems set up to allow the student to
practice solving problems. There are also some homework sets
that as the student to derive equations for various situations.
Here a simple example is given. Assume that we are interested
in a simple entity say the total population of a species or the
concentration of a radioactive isotope given as N. The species
population might be given in terms of numbers in total or
numbers per area or volume of habitat. Isotopes can be given in
actual concentrations say μg/ or in some mass or molar
fraction. If these are not variable in space, on environmental
variables such as T, other species, or G-factors, the total
derivative can be completed with respect to time to yield
where here a sink term has been added to indicate mortality or

decay when This is simple to integrate for find a solution for N
in the case where the initial value for N(0) The solution is then
N(t) = .
In many of the problems assigned in class students will not want
to make use of a word processor and can just write them out
with pen or pencil. These should still be laid out carefully with
sentences for discussion of assumptions and variable
definitions. The steps taken in solving the problems should be
explained so that the reader can understand the mathematics that
was carried out. It is important to define the units of all of the
variables introduced. This makes it easier to check the solutions
and make conclusions concerning the computation.
Acknowledgements: This is a good time to start using
acknowledgements in your work. These are typically found at
the end of an article just before the references. In a journal
article this is where collaborators who are not coauthors are
thanked for their contributions. In homework this is also the
appropriate place to acknowledge information that you gained
from a lecture, since the lectures are not part of the open
literature that a reader could find in a library or online.
Choosing and Displaying Figures: Like mathematics the careful
use of figures whether they are simple schematics that are
drawn by the author, graphs done from either data or an
equation, or figures taken from other literature, can greatly
simplify and shorten a manuscript. In particular, if a geographic
area is discussed in the text it is common practice to include a
chart showing the area and the particular features or locations
discussed. Students today have many means of producing charts
through resources such as Google Maps or ARC-GIS software.
The former is available free online. The UM library and the
computer labs in MSC and engineering have programs for the
latter. Below is a discussion of choosing figures and the layout
of figure captions.
Fig. 1. Plots comparing the nutricline () in the North Atlantic to
that in the North Pacific. Data are from GEOSECS North

Atlantic stations 26 and 26 and North Pacific GEOSEC station
213. Both oceans have lower surface concentrations than can be
measured using the methods available in 1972. The North
Atlantic, however, has higher concentrations than the North
Pacific beween70 and 200m. Below this the North Pacific has
higher levels at depth exceeding the Atlantic by a factor of two
by 500 m. The water column maximum values for the two
locations are also included on the plot.
Here the data are from the GEOSEC data sets that are available
on line. They were plotted on graph paper by the author. Note
that symbols differentiate the two oceans both in terms color
and shape, read circles versus blue squares. The figure caption
includes all of the material that is needed to understand the
graphs. The axes and units are given in the graphic itself. The
material in the caption should not just repeat the discussion in
the text. The same is true in reverse, i.e. put the full description
of the graph in the caption, not in the text.
The second figure, Fig. 2, is taken from a publication by Walsh
(1983) and was redone to combine two of that author’s figures
into a single panel. This was republished in The Sea Vol. 12 by
the author (Olson, 2001). Since the figure was redone by the
author it was not necessary to obtain permission from the
previous publisher, although the work of Walsh (1983) was
quoted in the figure caption and in the discussion surrounding
the figure in the Olson (2001) text. . Figures used straight from
other publications can be used in homework with proper
attribution as to source.
Water: H₂O
ECS 111
2 February 2018
Donald B. Olson

Cape Town Goes Dry?
EPA and Clean Water Act
1 February 2018 NYT
Sea Level: Freshwater Danger
Causal Sequence:
Five year drought
Wet spring/dry summer
Fires and removal of ground cover (November)
December rains
Fire and Flood
A long dry time:

What sets the scales for water as a commodity?
What sets the price of water?

How does water quality enter the picture?
Is there a need to protect the price of water for some specific
uses?
Does the last question suggest that waters has different worth
under free trade?
When does water lead to diplomatic problems including war?
National Geo. Apr. 2010
Water in our Ecosystems: Cont.
Adequate water: Domestic, industrial, agricultural uses, and the
rest of nature
Sustainability of water supplies: Future use
Maintenance of water quality: Pollution from natural (salt),
industrial/agriculture, domestic sources.
Trans-boundary issues: Sharing water between cities/rural
districts, states, countries.
Natural Saline Waters
Colorado River
Sources of fresh water:
Ground water: Aquifers
- Volume (km³), removal rate (km³/sec)
– Issue recharge rates and depletion times

Rivers and streams: Runoff in channels
- Volume transport (km³/sec)
- Downstream water quality
Lakes: Still waters, natural and dam created
- Volume exchange: Residence times
- Water quality and pollution build up
Residence and depletion times:
Residence time:TR Equilibrium (Steady State)
Depletion rates:TD
Rate of resource decay
Problems to consider:
Calculate the residence times for the different water pools in the
last lecture (see Tables).
Discuss the assumptions you have to make to turn these global
numbers into something that might be useful for policy. (What
do you have to assume?)
Choose a lake that you are interested in and work out its water
balance.
Calculate a depletion time for an aquifer.
Water Stocks in the Environment
24
From: Chow, Maidment and Mays, Applied Hydrology, McGraw
Hill, 1988

Water Fluxes in the Environment
Salinity ~ 35 gm salt/kg sea water; potable water < 19
25
More on freshwater availability
26
Global Water Balance (land)
Rainfall (119,000 km3/yr or 31 in) =
Evapotranspiration (72,000 km3/yr or 19 in) +
Runoff (44,700 km3/yr or 11.7 in) +
Infiltration (2,200 km3/yr or 0.3 in)
Conclusion: the world lives on a “water budget”
27
Stocks and Fluxes
Budgeting of an environmental stock takes place over a period
of time (day, month, year, etc).
[Change in Stock] = [Flux In]
- [Flux Out]

+ [Stock created]
- [Stock withdrawn]
28
Rainfall Data
Annual Rainfall in the Continental US, 1895-2003
Source: NOAA (www.noaa.gov)
29
Evaporation
Found by “evaporation pans”
Actual Evaporation =
Pan Evaporation x 0.70
30
Transpiration
Vegetation uptake and release of water for metabolic (growth)
purposes
Uptake takes place through the roots

Release takes place through the leaves (stomata)
Vegetation functions as a “pass-through” for water
31
Source: Laio et al., Advances
In Water Resources 24, p. 708,
2001
“Evapotranspiration”
Source: Hanson, U.S. Geological
Survey Water-Supply Paper 2375,
1991
32
Terrestrial Waters
Terrestrial Waters
Land ice (Ice sheets) 68.6% of fresh water
Ground water (aquifers) 30.2%
Lakes 0.26%
Rivers 0.006%

As a comparison the atmosphere contains approximately 0.04%
Global Water Sheds
http://wp.geog.mcgill.ca/hydrolab/fragmentation/
http://atlas.gwsp.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view
&id=97
Regulation and Connectivity of Rivers
http://wp.geog.mcgill.ca/hydrolab/
Water Budget
So, we have water depth D:
D = R – (Q + E + T + I)
This budget must be made over a defined time period (year,
season, month, day)
R=rain rate; Q = run off; E=evaporation; T=transpiration; I=
infiltration
37

A tragedy in the attempts to provide clean water.
The other SE Asian River: The Mekong
Wars and Water:
6-day war 1987 Israel’s big gain
Syria and Turkey
The future of the Dead Sea
Water and Middle East Peace

National Geographic April 2009
NYT 2 February 2014
Miami Herald 2 Feb 2014
Water and Geography
High Corruption and Intrigue Hollywood Style

Can we design a river basin?
What is the best design for a river?
Consider the factors:
- Control of flow
- Water quality
- Safe navigation
Who should govern these?
- States and local government
- National and international issues
Rivers are lost?
Impacts on land use and fisheries
Movement of societies to the coast.
Pollution impacts
Changes in water flows

NYT 24 August 2014
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River system of Georgia,
Alabama and Florida
A. Ripley (2006) Why We Don’t Prepare, Time, Aug. 28, 2006

What about Lakes?
International Lake Basin Managemnent (ILBM)
Lake attributes:
Lakes studied to date by program
The idea of a case study:
Pick representative ecosystems and do intensive studies.
Use modeling tools to address the ecological relationships.
Link the systems to larger scale biome and climate issues.
Use the study to address management in other similar
ecosystems.

Scale of hydrology issues: Small to large.
Hydrological position: Where we are on the flow.
Ground Water: Aquifers
Lakes and rivers: Surface water
These are outcrops of local water tables
Aquifers are geological formations that contain water (porous)
and interact with surface water through permeable connections.

Ogallala Aquifer
https://www.whymap.org/whymap/EN/Home/gw_world_g.html

Soils and Agriculture
ECS 111
7 February 2018
What sets up agricultural capacity ?

Birth of Agriculture
The Harvest
Agriculture began in fits and starts over the last 8-12 thousand
years.
- Ahu Hureyra (rye cultivation)
- Çatalhöyük (early full agriculture)
Taking of fish and animals as prey has a longer history.
- Hunting the wild
- Domestication
10,000 BP Jordon NYT Oct 2016
Role of temperature
Water supplies
Soil histories
Technology
Competing species

Birth of Agriculture
Spread of Rice after 10,000 BP
New Revolutions:
To what degree have the soils cultures inherit set their

resource bases?
Soils and water go hand in hand; 1) soils are created through
erosion of bed rock; 2) Water is needed for production of
organic matter.
How do soils change with the advent of agriculture?
Much of the decline in death rates is tied to better health and
sanitation.
What is the correlated role of nutrition?
The large growth in populations implicit in both of these sets of
curves has been maintained by a revolution in farming – The
Green Revolution
To what extent is the scatter in this plot tied to the wealth of the
land and agricultural bounty?
What issues define this scene?
Nat. Geo. 2004
Missing cultures
Pre-Columbian cultures in the Amazon
National Geographic September 2008

Changes in monsoons and N. Hemisphere Temperature
Medieval Warm Period
Little Ice Age
Locusts and Agriculture Loss
What about North America?

The Dust Bowl
Decadal Climate Variations
1930’s
Climates from model simulations
Arthur Rothstein (1936)
Cimarron Co. Oklahoma
LIFE Feb. 26, 1940
Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs)
Computer models describing the equations of motion for the
Earth’s atmosphere.
NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPPP) –
Climate of the 20th Century
3 X 3.75 degree (latitude/ longitude) grid
Ensemble runs with proscribed SST
Based on Dorothea Lange’s photography of a migrant mother in
Nipomo, California 1936
The Great Dust Bowl:

(1929-1939)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
Miami Herald
May 17, 2007

Causes of Soil Degradation
Soil and Agriculture on the Rocks:
ECS 111
February 4, 2015
Dr. Olson
A Global View of Soil Degradation
Who competes for soil?
Soil supports a regular flora (plants) that in turn have a endemic
(native) fauna.
Agriculture fundamentally disturbs this system: Mono-culture
This and climate variables set up conditions for invasive
species.
Soil and other issues:

Global Trend: Where Did All the Farms Go?
Poor farming practices = loss of soils and farmland
Erosion
Salinization
Development in United States = loss of 1.4 million acres of
farmland per year
Erosion
Salinization
farmland per year
To what extent can farmland recover?
Erosion
Salinization
farmland per year
How easy is it to recover farmland from development?
Why a Study of Soil Is Important
90% of the world’s food comes from land-based agriculture.
Maintenance of soil is the cornerstone of sustainable
civilizations.

Simply stated, it is the “foundation” of terrestrial life.
What is Soil?
Medium for plant growth.
Regulator of water supplies.
Recycler of raw materials.
Habitat for organisms.
Engineering medium.
Topsoil Formation
Soil Profile
Soil Profile
Any or all of these can be missing in a particular soil horizon.
Example from a simpler soil profile from Robinson (1982)
How do ecologists or geologist sample soils?

How do ecologists or geologist sample soils?
They dig a trench!
Soil Texture
Soil texture refers to the percentage of each type of particle
found in the soil.
Loam soil is approximately 40% sand, 40% silt, and 20% clay.
Each of these has a particular character: sand is hard grained;
silt is fine, and clays consist of sheets of material.
Soil Texture
Sand
Silt
Clay
Large
Small
Smaller
Soil Texture
Soil Texture and Properties (see Table 8-2)TextureWater
InfiltrationWater-holding CapacityNutrient-holding
CapacityAerationSandGoodPoorPoorGoodSiltMediumMediumM
ediumMediumClayPoorGoodGoodPoorLoamMediumMediumMe
diumMedium
Soil Classes

Mollisols: fertile soils with deep A horizon; best agriculture
soils Ex. Illinois, Pampas, Steppes of Ukraine.
Oxisols: iron and aluminum oxides in B horizon; little O
horizon; poor agriculture soils Ex. Amazon
Alfisols: Moderately weathered forest soils. Canadian forests,
Siberia
Aridisols: Drylands and deserts. American West
Classifying Everything
Robinson 1982. Basic Physical Geology lists 10 soil types.
Keeps geologists busy.
Engineers like to classify them by their physical properties.
Soils by climate characteristics and their distribution across the
US.
From Brady and Weil (1999)
Soil Chemistry: Strongly influenced by Temperature and Water
content
Soil cross sections.
Brady and Weil (1999)
Plant–Soil–Water Relationships
Water Transport by Transpiration

Productive Soil
Good supply of nutrients and nutrient-holding capacity (NO₃ ,
PO₄, SO₄, …)
Infiltration, good water-holding capacity, resists evaporative
water loss
Porous structure for aeration (O₂ respiration)
Near-neutral pH (Both Acidic and Alkaline Conditions are bad)
Low salt content (Some NCl but just a little)
The Soil Community
Humus
Partly decomposed organic matter
High capacity for holding water and nutrients
Typically found in O horizon
Formation of Humus
Humus and Development of Soil Structure
The Importance of Humus to Topsoil
Soil Degradation
Erosion
Drylands and desertification

Irrigation and salinization
The Results of Removal of Topsoil: Sand and Gravel
Erosion: Wind or Water
Splash erosion: impact of falling raindrops breaks up the
clumpy structure of topsoil
Sheet erosion: running water carries off the fine particles on the
soil surface
Gully erosion: water volume and velocity carries away large
quantities of soil, causing gullies (see Fig. 8-14)
Desertification
Formation and expansion of degraded areas of soil and
vegetation cover in arid, semiarid, and seasonally dry areas,
caused by climatic variations and human activities.
Dryland Areas
Cover one-third of Earth’s land area
Defined by precipitation, not temperature
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Fund projects to reverse land degradation
In 2003, $500 million available in grants to fund projects

Dry lands and Desertification: Formation of Desert Pavement
Irrigation
Flood irrigation (see Fig. 8-21)
Center-pivot irrigation (see Fig. 7-16)
Can extract as much as 10,000 gallons/minute
Irrigated lands
67 million acres or one-fifth of all cultivated cropland in the
United States
667 million acres worldwide, a 35% increase over the past 30
years
165 year experiment in the American West past the 100
meridian
Salinization
A process of distilling out dissolved salts in irrigated water and

leaving it on the land
A form of desertification, since land is rendered useless
Worldwide an estimated 3.7 million acres of agricultural land is
lost annually to salinization and waterlogging
Salinization: What It Looks Like
Conserving the Soil
Cover the soil
Minimal or zero tillage
Mulch for nutrients
Maximize biomass production
Maximize biodiversity
Contour Farming and Shelterbelts

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