Water H₂OECS 1116 September 2016Donald B. OlsonProb.docx

Water: H₂O
ECS 111
6 September 2016
Donald B. Olson
Problems with Water:
Demise of the Marsh Arabs

What sets the scales for water as a commodity?
What sets the price of water?
How does water quality enter the picture?
Is there a need to protect the price of water for some specific
uses?
Does the last question suggest that waters has different worth
under free trade?
When does water lead to diplomatic problems including war?
National Geo. Apr. 2010

Water in our Ecosystems: Cont.
Adequate water: Domestic, industrial, agricultural uses, and the
rest of nature
Sustainability of water supplies: Future use
Maintenance of water quality: Pollution from natural (salt),
industrial/agriculture, domestic sources.
Trans-boundary issues: Sharing water between cities/rural
districts, states, countries.
Natural Saline Waters
Colorado River
Sources of fresh water:
Ground water: Aquifers
- Volume (km³), removal rate (km³/sec)
– Issue recharge rates and depletion times
Rivers and streams: Runoff in channels
- Volume transport (km³/sec)
- Downstream water quality
Lakes: Still waters, natural and dam created
- Volume exchange: Residence times
- Water quality and pollution build up
Residence and depletion times:
Residence time:TR Equilibrium (Steady State)
Depletion rates:TD
Rate of resource decay

Problems to consider:
Calculate the residence times for the different water pools in the
last lecture (see Tables).
Discuss the assumptions you have to make to turn these global
numbers into something that might be useful for policy. (What
do you have to assume?)
Choose a lake that you are interested in and work out its water
balance.
Calculate a depletion time for an aquifer.
Water Stocks in the Environment
21
From: Chow, Maidment and Mays, Applied Hydrology, McGraw
Hill, 1988
Water Fluxes in the Environment
Salinity ~ 35 gm salt/kg sea water; potable water < 19
22
More on freshwater availability

23
Global Water Balance (land)
Rainfall (119,000 km3/yr or 31 in) =
Evapotranspiration (72,000 km3/yr or 19 in) +
Runoff (44,700 km3/yr or 11.7 in) +
Infiltration (2,200 km3/yr or 0.3 in)
Conclusion: the world lives on a “water budget”
24
Stocks and Fluxes
Budgeting of an environmental stock takes place over a period
of time (day, month, year, etc).
[Change in Stock] = [Flux In]
- [Flux Out]
+ [Stock created]
- [Stock withdrawn]
25
Rainfall Data
Annual Rainfall in the Continental US, 1895-2003
Source: NOAA (www.noaa.gov)

26
Evaporation
Found by “evaporation pans”
Actual Evaporation =
Pan Evaporation x 0.70
27
Transpiration
Vegetation uptake and release of water for metabolic (growth)
purposes
Uptake takes place through the roots
Release takes place through the leaves (stomata)
Vegetation functions as a “pass-through” for water
28
Source: Laio et al., Advances
In Water Resources 24, p. 708,
2001

“Evapotranspiration”
Source: Hanson, U.S. Geological
Survey Water-Supply Paper 2375,
1991
29
Water Budget
So, we have water depth D:
D = R – (Q + E + T + I)
This budget must be made over a defined time period (year,
season, month, day)
R=rain rate; Q = run off; E=evaporation; T=transpiration; I=
infiltration
30

Ogallala Aqufer
A tragedy in the attempts to provide clean water.
The other SE Asian River: The Mekong
Wars and Water:
6-day war 1987 Israel’s big gain
Syria and Turkey
The future of the Dead Sea
Water and Middle East Peace

National Geographic April 2009
NYT 2 February 2014
Miami Herald 2 Feb 2014
Water and Geography

High Corruption and Intrigue Hollywood Style
Can we design a river basin?
What is the best design for a river?
Consider the factors:
- Control of flow
- Water quality
- Safe navigation
Who should govern these?
- States and local government
- National and international issues
Rivers are lost?
Impacts on land use and fisheries

Movement of societies to the coast.
Pollution impacts
Changes in water flows
NYT 24 August 2014
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River system of Georgia,
Alabama and Florida

A. Ripley (2006) Why We Don’t Prepare, Time, Aug. 28, 2006
What about Lakes?
International Lake Basin Managemnent (ILBM)
Lake attributes:
Lakes studied to date by program
The idea of a case study:
Pick representative ecosystems and do intensive studies.
Use modeling tools to address the ecological relationships.
Link the systems to larger scale biome and climate issues.
Use the study to address management in other similar
ecosystems.

Scale of hydrology issues: Small to large.
Hydrological position: Where we are on the flow.

Water Management in South Florida
Jillian Drabik
University of Miami
September 13th, 2016
1

1
The South Florida water management system
The history of South Florida water
A review of the current water management system & its key
features
Challenges with water management in South Florida
Ecological challenges
Management challenges
Lecture Outline
2
Southern third of Florida
Encompasses the Greater Everglades system
Roughly 7.5 million residents
South Florida Water Management System
(Map Courtesy of Panel on Adaptive Management for Resource
Stewardship et al., 2004)
3

3
The History of South Florida Water
Two men exploring the Everglades system by canoe in the late
19th/early 20th century. (Image courtesy of Florida
International University Libraries, n.d.)
4
4
A snake-like Kissimmee River
“A River of Grass”
Fertile soils south of Lake Okeechobee
The Historic Everglades & Pre-drainage Historic Flows
(Image courtesy of the Everglades Foundation, 2016)
5

5
Conservation: save the land from nature
A promise of good land
The 1910’s land boom
Tourism and development begin to grow, but…
Early Development
A real estate advertisement from 1925. (Image courtesy of
Wikibooks, 2016)
6
6
Challenges with Controlling the Water
(Cartoon courtesy of Florida Memory, 2015)
7

7
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926
An image of Miami Beach after the Hurricane of 1926. (Image
Courtesy of the History Miami, 2011 )
8
8
National News
A 1926 Atlanta Constitution article describing the destruction
of the Great Miami Hurricane. (Image courtesy of Ray City
Community Library, 2011)
9

9
Category 4 hurricane
Impacted areas include Belle Glade, Pahokee, and South Bay
Significant loss of life due to Lake Okeechobee’s floodwaters
A renewed push for controlling the water
The Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928
(Image Courtesy of the National Weather Service, 2009)
10
10
Authorized by the Flood Control Act of 1948
The blueprint for our current system
The largest civil works project at the time
The creation of the Southern Florida Flood Control District in
1949
The Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project
A floating crane working on a C&SF project on Lake
Okeechobee in the 1950’s. (Image courtesy of the South Florida
Water Management District [SFWMD], n.d.)
11

11
The Water Resources Development Act of 2000
Focused on Everglades conservation and restoration
Collaboration between the Army Corps. Of Engineers and the
South Florida Water Management District
37 years & a 50/50 cost share
2011 Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP)
Central Everglades Restoration Project (CERP)
12
12
Waterflow Goals under CERP
(Image courtesy of Committee on Independent Scientific
Review of Everglades Restoration Progress et al., 2014)
13

13
Water Management in South Florida Today
(Map courtesy of Everglades hub, n.d.)
14
The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD)
(Image courtesy of Audubon Florida, 2012)
15
15
Controlling Water Okeechobee Water Depths
16

(Graph courtesy of the SFWMD, 2016)
16
Chain of Lakes and Kissimmee River
Lake Okeechobee
St. Lucie & Caloosahatchee Rivers
Through the water conservation areas (WCAs)
Everglades National Park
Florida Bay
Current Water Flow
(Image taken from Trend Magazines Inc., 2007)
17
17
The Herbert Hoover Dike
(Image courtesy of TC Palm, 2016)

18
18
East and West
(Image courtesy of Sun Sentinel, 2016)
19
19
Little difference between surface and ground water
Significant source of drinking water for South Florida
Mostly limestone
Biscayne Aquifer
(Image courtesy of the US Geological Survey, 2015)
20

20
SFWMD System Challenges
Environmental protestors rally in Fort Myers to encourage the
purchase of U.S. Sugar farm land in 2015. (Image courtesy of
Naples Daily News, 2015)
21
21
Water Use
(Graph Courtesy of the Water Supply Bureau, 2016)
22

22
Overuse and saltwater intrusion
Overuse increases the risk of saltwater intrusion
Saltwater intrusion is expected to increase with sea level rise
Risks to the Biscayne Aquifer
(Map courtesy of U.S. Geological Survey, 2013)
23
23
Fluctuations in Rainfall
24
(Graph courtesy of the SFWMD, 2016)

24
Sufficient waterflow is needed for a healthy ecosystem
Detached from the water system
In recent years, the park suffered from lack of water
Everglades National Park: Send the Water South
(Image courtesy of National Geographic, 2016)
25
25
The southern end of the water system
The 2015 sea grass dieoff due to localized drought
Impacts of the recent El Niño
Save Florida Bay
A man swimming in Florida Bay during the seagrass dieoff of
2015. (Image taken from the Miami Herald, 2015)
26

26
Invasive species impacts
Lygodium: the old-world climbing fern
Collaboration challenges between the Fish & Wildlife Service
and SFWMD
Bad collaboration vs. no collaboration
The Loxahatchee National Refuge & Lygodium
Lygodium growing in the Loxahatchee National Refuge. (Image
Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons, 2015)
27
27
A second invasive species
Characterized by white bark
A competitive edge over native species
Also tied to management problems with the Fish and Wildlife
Service
The Loxahatchee National Refuge & Melaleuca
(Image courtesy of University of Florida IFAS, 2007)
28

28
Over 70 years old and in need of repairs
Impacts to water management
Primary threats are from seepage, not overspill
Challenges with repairs and delays
How safe is safe enough?
Lake Okeechobee: Lake or reservoir?
Herbert Hoover Dike Repairs
A map displaying the probability of failure at different
locations along the Herbert Hoover Dike. (Image courtesy of the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2016)
29
29
Endemic to South Florida, but endangered

Protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA)
Habitat protection under the ESA
A threat to the Everglades National Park?
Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
An image of the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow. (Image courtesy
of the National Park Service, 2007)
30
30
Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow: Critical Habitat
(Image courtesy of the Fish & Wildlife Service, n.d.)
31
31

Occurred in late June/early July 2016
Blue-green algae
Left Lake Okeechobee and traveled East along the St. Lucie
River
Public health impacts
The Toxic Algae Bloom
An image of the algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee during the
summer of 2016. (Image taken from National Geographic, 2016)
32
32
King Tide flooding in Miami Beach
When does nuisance flooding become a problem?
Impacts on Zika control
Climate Change Impacts
People walking through the floodwaters in Miami Beach.
(Image courtesy of Miami Herald, 2016)
33

33
Is it possible?
Is more freshwater flows better?
Is water storage the answer?
Getting back to Historical Flows?
(Image courtesy of the Everglades Foundation, 2016)
34
34
References
35
Audubon Florida. (2012, August). Auburn Florida Restore.
Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://fl.audubonaction.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=22361.0
&printer_friendly=1
Call, E. M., Brandt, L. A., & DeAngelis, D. L. (2007). Old
World Climbing Fern (Lygodium Microphyllum) Spore
Germination in Natural Substrates. Florida Scientist, 70(1), 55-
61. Retrieved September 11, 2016, from
http://sofia.usgs.gov/publications/papers/fern_spore_germ/index
.html

Center for Biological Diversity. (n.d.). Endangered Species Act
profile. Retrieved September 11, 2016, from
http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/species/birds/Cape_Sable_se
aside_sparrow/endangered_species_act_profile.html
Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades
Restoration Progress, Water Science and Technology Board,
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Division of
Earth and Life Studies, & National Research Council. (2014).
Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Fifth Biennial
Review, 2014. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
https://www.nap.edu/read/18809/chapter/4
Everglades Foundation. (n.d.). Central Everglades Planning
Project [CEPP]. Retrieved September 11, 2016, from
http://www.evergladesfoundation.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/06/01-CEPP-Fact-Sheet-1.pdf
Everglades Foundation. (2016). Maps. Retrieved September 10,
2016, from http://www.evergladesfoundation.org/the-
everglades/maps/
Everglades Hub. (n.d.). Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://www.evergladeshub.com/news/arch/month_files/CEPP-
map-0.jpg
Fish & Wildlife Service. (n.d.). Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow.
https://www.fws.gov/verobeach/MSRPPDFs/CapeSableSeasideS
parrow.pdf
Florida International University Library. (n.d.). Everglades
Digital Library. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://everglades.fiu.edu/reclaim/

36
References (continued)
Florida Memory. (2015, May 29). Land by the Gallon. Retrieved
September 10, 2016, from
http://www.floridamemory.com/blog/2015/05/29/land-by-the-
gallon/
History Miami. (2011, December 1). In what month did the
1926 hurricane strike? History Miami. Retrieved September 10,
2016, from
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/make_miami_history_now/2011
/12/in-what-month-did-the-1926-hurricane-strike.html
National Geographic. (2016). Everglades National Park.
National Geographic. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/national-
parks/everglades-national-park/
National Park Service. (2007, October 20). Status of Cape Sable
Seaside Sparrow 2007 Survey Report. Retrieved September 10,
2016, from https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/news/status-of-cape-
sable-seaside-sparrow-2007-survey-report.htm
National Weather Service. (2009, June 29). Memorial web page
for the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. Retrieved September 10,
2016, from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=okeechobee

Nehamas, N. (2016, January 20). Climate change could cost
jobs in South Florida, says white house advisor. Miami Herald.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article55631150.ht
ml
Palacios, R. (2014, January 25). South Florida Water
Management District. Retrieved September 11, 2016, from
https://rpalacios3260.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/south-florida-
water-management-district/
Panel on Adaptive Management for Resource Stewardship,
Committee to Assess the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Methods of Analysis and Peer Review for Water Resources
Project Planning, Water Science and Technology Board, Ocean
Studies Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies, & National
Research Council. (2004). Adaptive management for water
resources project planning. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
https://www.nap.edu/read/10972/chapter/6
37
Parker, L. (2016, July 27). Slimy Green Beaches May Be

Florida's New Normal. National Geographic. Retrieved
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/07/toxic-algae-
florida-beaches-climate-swamp-environment/
Ray City Community Library. (2011, November 13). Ray City
Residents Among Refugees from 1926 Hurricane. Retrieved
https://raycityhistory.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/ray-city-
residents-among-refugees-from-1926-hurricane/
Reid, A. (2011, September 12). South Florida drinking water
faces saltwater threat. Sun Sentinel. Retrieved September 11,
2016, from http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-09-
12/health/fl-saltwater-intrusion-20110912_1_saltwater-
intrusion-saltwater-threat-drinking-water
Reid, A., Uraizee, I., & Zhu, Y. (2016, March 11). A draining
problem: The release of Lake Okeechobee floodwaters is
dirtying Florida's coastline. Sun Sentinel. Retrieved September
10, 2016, from http://interactive.sun-sentinel.com/lake-
okeechobee-flooding/
South Florida Water Management District. (n.d.). 1949-1960:
Florida creates flood control district. Retrieved September 11,
2016, from
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_re
pository_pdf/panel1-9.pdf
South Florida Water Management District. (2016, August 11).
Governing board stands up for Loxahatchee Refuge. Retrieved
pository_pdf/nr_2016_0811_lox_refuge_exotics.pdf
South Florida Water Management District. (2016, September).

Lake Okeechobee SFWMM Sept 2016 Dynamic Position
Analysis. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
pository_pdf/projection.pdf
Staats, E. (2015, March 4). Advocates call for state to buy U.S.
Sugar land to stem damaging water flows. Naples Daily News.
http://archive.naplesnews.com/news/environment/advocates-
call-for-state-to-buy-us-sugar-land-to-stem-damaging-water-
flows-ep-969878161-335583761.html
38
Staletovich, J. (2015, October 3). Dying seagrass and 'yellow
fog' signal trouble for Florida Bay. Miami Herald. Retrieved
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article375
83577.html
Sullivan, B. (2016, April 28). Congress moves water bill faster
than Lake Okeechobee dike repair and sugar land buy. TC Palm.

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/indian-river-
lagoon/health/congress-moves-water-bill-faster-than-lake-
okeechobee-dike-repair-and-sugar-land-buy--31777c44-6933--
377450491.html
University of Florida IFAS. (2007). Melaleuca Photo Gallery.
http://tame.ifas.ufl.edu/photo_gallery/melaleuca/multiple-
trunks.shtml
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Director). (2010, August 6).
USACE: Lake Okeechobee and the Herbert Hoover Dike [Video
file]. In Youtube. Retrieved September 11, 2016, from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpkhJgV_mLo
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. (n.d.). Welcome to the National
Levee Database. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://nld.usace.army.mil/egis/f?p=471:1:
U.S. Geological Survey. (2013, September 4). Development of
Water-Management System and Impact on the Hydrology of
Southeastern Florida - Assessment of Saltwater Intrusion.
http://sofia.usgs.gov/publications/circular/1275/saltintrusion.ht
ml
U.S. Geological Survey. (2015, April 14). Aquifer Basics.
http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/aquiferbasics/ext_biscayne.html
Vogel, M. (2007, September 1). Where Will Lake O's Water
Go? Florida Trend. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://www.floridatrend.com/article/9011/where-will-lake-os-
water-go

39
Water Supply Bureau. (2016, February). South Florida Water
Management District 2014 Estimated Water Use Report (Rep.).
pository_pdf/2014_est_water_use_report.pdf
Wikibooks. (2016, August 14). History of Florida/Modern
Florida, 1900-1945. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/History_of_Florida/Modern_Flori
da,_1900-1945
Wikimedia Commons. (2015, September 4). Lygodium
microphyllum in Loxahatchee. Retrieved September 10, 2016,
from
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lygodium_microphyll
um_in_Loxahatchee.jpg
Willadsen, D. D. (2016, January). Herbert Hoover Dike
Rehabilitation Project. Retrieved September 10, 2016, from
http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/Portals/44/docs/HHD/HHDDSM
SPublicMeetingPresentationJan262016.pdf

Introduction to Ecosystem Science and Policy
ECS 111
Dr. Olson
23 August 2016
1
Future Trends: Number of Days T > 90
NYT 21 August 2016
The Long, Hot Summer
What’s in the News?
Climate the Oceans

Florida’s Water Care
Economic Backgrounds
Human Health
Zika Again
Life in the Wild
Problems with National Parks
Defining Ecology
Function of “natural” systems
Anthropogenic modifications
Function ≠ service
How do we define the field of ecology?

12
Some Definitions:
Ecosystem: a system formed by the interaction of a community
of oarganisms and their environment (Random House)
Ecosystem function: The outcome of processes that make an
ecosystem exist over some spatial/temporal domain
Ecosystem service: Benefits that accrue to human societies from
an ecosystem
13
Lectures:
Ecosystem Science and Policy: An introduction
Our Society’s Carrying Capacity
Necessary Things
The World’s Biomes
Water
Dirt (Soils and Agriculture)
The Vista of Change
Environmental Movements
Pollution
Fisheries: Food from the Sea
Energy Use and Society
Forest Resources
Conservation of Wild Things
Human Heath and the Ecosystem
Climate and Ecosystems
The Future: Adaptation to Change
Ecosystems in Flux

Books
Lecture: 23 August 2016
More on recent ecological events: What do extreme event create
in ecosystems?
Human versus Natural systems: How are these differentiated?
What are chronic versus event related issues in terms of
resistance to change and the resilience of an ecosystem?
Some Homework Problems:
In general any question posed in a lecture can be the basis of an
essay. These can be short answer (10-30 points) or extended
essays with references (50-100 points or more).
Start and analysis of your hometown ecosystem or some other
area of interest.
Review on of the recent events covered in this lecture or other
issues.
Recent News in Ecosystems
ECS 111
Fall 2016
Dr. Olson
Drought and Fires

Fire and Heat
El Nino: It will be a biggy
Problems in China
Oops, its sprung a leak
Year’s Top Story: Ebola
Ebola: West African Epidemic

A Hope: The Vaccine
Value of Nature:
Immigration: Migration in Humans
Population Demography
Avoiding Death?
Demography of Wealth

Work and Poverty
Global Agriculture
Water
Too much water:
Energy Issues

Energy and Climate
New Gas and Oil
Moving Oil and Gas
Protests in the Dakotas NYT 24 August 2106
Using Gas Resources
Garbage and Waste
Conservation Issues:

Strange Case of the Horse
Lion Hunting
Protecting Wild Life
Conserving Animals: Hard Choices
Loosing access…?
NYT 24 August 2016
Green Slime on the Beach
Algal Bloom on east coast of FL
Summer 2016
Climate Change

The Warming Hiatus (?)
Or …….
Tipping Points
Earth Day Funnies
Human Ecology and Our Society’s Carrying Capacity
ECS 111
30 August 2016
Dr. Olson
Demography
Quantifying populations: numbers, sex ratios, wealth, health,
…..
Calculating trends: birth, deaths, and migration

Understanding population transitions: Growth rates; positive
and negative, trends with respect to economic development.
Demographic shifts in use of ecological services and the health
of ecosystem function.
Homo sapiens populations
Demographic Transitions
From Krise Kronicle 2008
Age and gender structure in society
SHRM Foundation 2012
See futurehrtrends.eiu.com
Unequal Distributions in Demographic Trends
ibid
Population Reference Bureau data
Previous changes

Global issues and Migration:
Migration and its consequences:
Recent News
How do we really analyze these curves?
The literature suggests something rather profound, but it may be
more complicated than this.
- What are the technological issues behind these curves? What
has lead to the reduction in deaths?
- What are the cultural and economic issues behind these
curves?
The variation in time is obvious in both curves.
The onset of changes are different.

The width of the pink area means what?
Population Transitions
14
What is happening here?
Both birth and death rates are declining, but with different
starting points based on the measure of economic conditions.
However, since births > deaths human populations are
increasing, and at differential rates with respect to economic
development.
What factors are hidden in these curves?
Malthus’s Population Dynamics
Population grow in proportion to its size: Change (dN) is
related to numbers N.
The rate of change simply is the difference between birth (b)
and deaths (d); i.e. (b-d).
Introducing the Newtonian idea of mass action and his calculus
then:
dN/dt = (b-d) N.
(1766-1834)
17

The Dilemma
Newton showed that for (b-d)> 0 the population grows to
infinity in time (exponential growth) and for (b-d)< 0 the
population decays to zero. If only b=d?
When does this happen: Logistic growth and the concept of
Carrying Capacity (K).
Under logistic conditions: dN/dt = rN(1-N/K)
This was first derived in about 1832 by Verlhust.
Solution
s to demographic challenges?
Malthus decided: war, plague or famine
The other would be to let b=d and live at the environmental
Carrying Capacity (K) where N=K and dN/dt =0; i.e. steady
populations.
Now all we have to do is define K.
Reading: Brown Into. and Chapter 1
-What does Brown think determines K?
Problem: Can you derive the logistic equation? Set b=bo-b₁N
and d=do+d₁N and then with some algebra define r andK.

Suggested Reading:
What does Brown feel is important?
Water: We know of no life form that can live without it; or at
least reproduce without.
Soil: The basis of agriculture
Climate: The temperature and water flow that allows these to be
available.
These of course depend on where we are and how many
organisms are part of our ecosystem.
A DETERIORATING FOUNDATION
Falling Water Tables and Shrinking Harvests
Eroding Soils and Expanding Deserts
Rising Temperatures, Melting Ice, and Food Security
Brown (2011)

What really sets Carrying Capacity?
Water: 3 liters per day +
Food: What is a balanced diet.
Nutrients: The supplements.
Is culture part of the equation?
How are these supplied by our ecosystems (ecosystem
services)?
Uses of Water
Drinking water.
Irrigation.
Recreation.
Hydro power

What does Brown feel is important?
Water: We know of no life form that can live without it; or at
least reproduce without.
Soil: The basis of agriculture
Climate: The temperature and water flow that allows these to be
available.
These of course depend on where we are and how many
organisms are part of our ecosystem.
Plant–Soil–Water Relationships
Soil cross sections.
Brady and Weil (1999)
35

Brown’s third:
Climate change
Where are we at on these issues?
Human society is part of the earth’s ecosystems.
Our current system is stressing these.
Specific issues within these stresses are a concern for our future
well being.
Why are we at this state of affairs and what can be done?
(4) The Commons: Our Tendency to Overuse Ecosystem
Services

Lobstering in Maine
Community Garden in Mozambique
Monte Alban Archaeological Park,
Oaxaca, Mexico
Deforestation in Uganda
Whale Watching in
Massachusetts
Aral Sea
39
Others: broadcasting bandwidth, Interstate Highway 95, climate
change, biodiversity loss, ozone layer depletion, persistent
pollutants
Tragedy of the Commons
Garrett Hardin made a big impact with his 1968 article, Tragedy
of the Commons.
Hardin called a tragedy "the solemnity of the remorseless

working of things."
A commons was a pasture that belonged collectively to a
village.
A villager could buy one more cow and gain the full income that
a cow provided.
Damage from another cow grazing the pasture seems small
compared to the gain.
The entire community would suffer from the damage.
Each member of the village was motivated to keep adding cows.
To preserve the commons, the personal freedom of the villagers
had to be curtailed.
Hardin is most concerned with overpopulation.
Conscience is self-eliminating: If we rely on conscience to
control population, the result will be the Darwinian extinction
of families that exercise restraint.
The solution? Mutual Coercion Mutually Agreed Upon.
40

Prior to Hardin’s article, keywords in titles such as “commons”,
“common property”, “common pool resource” occurred only 17
times in the entire English language academic literature. Some
2300 such papers would appear in the next 35 years.
In 1990, the International Association for the Study of Common
Property (now known as the International Association for the
Study of the Commons) formed. By 2000, attendance at its
annual meeting exceeded 600.
Transitions and Change in the Commons
The impact of population changes and cultural changes in social
norms (memes) effect our use of resources.
These in turn modify our use of the commons; i.e. the balance
between ecosystem function and our use of ecosystem services.
An Example: The Wild West
Western Demography

Western Frontier
Massive movement of people westward: Horace Greeley (1853)
“Go west, young man, Go west”
Wealth and living space: Pioneers, soldiers, Indians, the African
American cowboy, the Chinese Railroad worker.
Economics and reality: Gold, farm land (water), cattle, ….
Means of travel: Horse, wagon, stage coach, train…
Natural losses: The buffalo, the great forests, rivers lost to silt
and dams.

Environmental indicators and income
Can wealth per capita solve economic issues: Kuznets curves
These are recent data:
What did these look like in the wild west?
The Renaissance Europe?
Your home town?
Examples with real data:
Simon Kuznets
The Concept of Carrying Capacity
What governs development?
- Micro-view: individual behaviors
Game theory.
- Macro-view: Whole systems
Defining Carrying Capacity.

dN/dt = r N (1 – N/K)
Time rate of change of N
Maximum growth rate
Carrying capacity
Logistic Equation
47
The Logistic Equation
48
Logistic Growth and Populations

49
Births versus Deaths
Birth rates change with population size, medical conditions,
nutrition, and social norms.
Deaths also depend on population size, medical and nutrition
issues, but
What about social norms and death?
World Population Growth
China and India

China Demographics
Troubles in Japan
Migration and Population Change
People per km²
European pop.
Africa and Middle East
Migration: Emigration/Immigration

Emigration = Leaving an area
Immigration = Entering one
Refugees in Europe
Human Violence
How has human conflict evolved?
Are humans basically violent to each other and to the rest of
nature?
Are human violent interactions grown or decreased with the
level of civilization?
How do our violent periods impact the global environment?

Has the per capita mortality increased with time?
(1618-1648)
Can we stop wars and violence?
Pax Britannia and an arms race
America and Russia: Pax Nuclear

How to think about logistics?
The basic equation: dN/dt =rN(1-N/K) has two equilibrium
solutions.
Set dN/dt = 0 and solve the equation: N=K.
The other is N=0.
The next issue is are these stable?
Starting at N=0 will the system go to K?
Two issues involving real ecosystems:
How do we define K?
The processes controlling the ultimate population are large.
The simple logistic analysis does not include any interactions
between ecosystem components.
Ecosystems consist of biomes and spatial components and these
move.
How do things move in ecosystems?
So far the contents of ecosystems have been described; i.e.
number of animals and plants or say carbon stocks
How do materials and energy move within and between
ecosystems?
Here typically the cycling of materials are considered in terms
of natural cycles.

Carbon Cycles
68
Processes Disrupting Nutrient Cycles
Natural processes that modify nutrient cycles:
- Changes in vegetation cover
- Variations in rates of grazing, …
Anthropogenic changes in nutrient availability:
- Onset of agriculture
- Fertilization of land systems
What are the factors the set our carrying capacity?
Brown defines three factors and argues that we are pushing
them.
What about Paul Ehrlich and his Population Bomb?
Can technology overcome these problems?
What happens if we can not cope?

Water H₂OECS 1116 September 2016Donald B. OlsonProb.docx

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